Hello, Readers.
With Ultimate Masters mostly spoiled, people are waiting patiently to see on which cards they’re about to get their pants pulled down (R.I.P. Foil Thespians’ Stage) and which cards could see a surge in price as a result of not being printed. People tend to wait until the set is fully spoiled to make their buys on stuff that’s not in the set but the thing is, we don’t HAVE to wait on everything.
In Which I Introduce a Concept that is Not New
Magic cards are numbered.
Fascinating
Don’t interrupt me. Anyway, Magic cards are numbered. The bottom of the card has two numbers, one is the total cards in the set and the other is the number that card is in the order. Ultimate Masters has 254 cards, the first of which is All is Dust and the 254th of which is Urborg, Tomb Of Yawgmoth. How do we know this? Well, we’ve seen pictures of both of those cards and the number on All is Dust is 1/254 and the number on Urborg is 254/254/. This isn’t a new concept to most of you.
Another thing we know is that the cards are ordered alphabetically, subsected into colors which go Colorless, WUBRG, Gold, Lands. Fauna Shaman is before Snapcaster Mage alphabetically but its number in the set will be higher than Snapcaster Mage’s because Green comes after Blue. Don’t believe me? We can test this – Fauna Shaman is 164 and Snapcaster Mage is 71. Bam. Science.
What can this information tell us? Well, it can’t tell us what’s in the set as often as it can tell us what isn’t in the set, but the good news there is what isn’t in the set is more valuable to know right now than what is. If you get something in the set confirmed, you learn that you should have sold already because the price will tank. But if you learn something that’s ruled out, you can buy before the price goes up. Let’s see if we can figure out some sweet EDH staples that are ruled out.
First up, I pulled up the list of the Top 100 EDH cards in terms of deck inclusion for each color. Not all of them are money because, not surprisingly, a lot of them aren’t rare. However, there are some expensive ones that could go up if they’re not reprinted. I started with colorless/artifacts first. In the set, Eldrazi are up first in the colorless section and artifacts are later so we’re looking at two different spots on the number crunch.
Unfortunately, at the time I wrote this, we didn’t know many artifacts. Card #2 in the set can only be 7 different cards between All is Dust and Eldrazi Conscription and none of them really matter. In the artifacts section, though, we don’t know much.
Colorless/Artifacts
225 Fire//Ice
226 Probably Unknown Artifact
227 Engineered Explosives
228 Unknown Artifact
229 Mana Vault
230 Unknown Artifact
231 Unknown Artifact
232 Phyrexian Altar
233 Platinum Emperion
234 Unknown Artifact
There isn’t much we can come up with, here. I can’t rule out Paradox Engine, Urza’s Incubator, Mox Opal, Hangarback Walker, Sword of anything, Gauntlets of Power, Caged Sun, Darksteel Forge… I feel like this section is a waste of time. Let’s move on to another color.
White
8-10 Unknown White Cards
11 Containment Priest
12-13 Unknown White Cards
14 Daybreak Coronet
15-18 Unknown White Cards
19 Heliod’s Pilgrim
20-24 Unknown White Cards
25 Martyr of Sands
26-29 Unknown White Card
30 Resurrection
31 Reveillark
32-33 Unknown White Card
34 Runed Halo
35 Sigil of the New Dawn
36-37 Unknown White Cards
38 Sublime Archangel
39 Unknown White Card
40 Tethmos High Priest
41 Wall of Reverence
42-45 Unknown White and/or Blue Cards
White has a few big gaps but there are a few cards we can rule out.
Thalia, both Guardian of Thraben and Heretic Cathar can’t be between 40 and 41.
That’s basically it for now. We can’t rule out anything we’d like to – Teferi’s Protection, Worship, Act of Authority, Council’s Judment, any Elspeth, you name it, basically.
Blue
42-45 Unknown White /Blue Cards
46 Back to Basics (!)
47 Circular Logic
48-50 Unknown Blue Cards
51 Disrupting Shoal
52-54 Unknown Blue Cards
55 Foil
56 Unknown Blue Card
57 Frantic Search
58 Glen Elendra Archmage
59-60 Unknown Blue Cards
61 Laboratory Maniac
62 Living Lore
63 Magus of the Bazaar
64-67 Unknown Blue Cards
68 Rune Snag
69-70 Unknown Blue Cards
71 Snapcaster Mage
72-75 Unknown Blue Cards
76 Talrand
77 Temporal Manipulation
78 Unknown Blue Card
79 Treasure Cruise
80 Unknown Blue Card
81 Visions of Beyond
82-84 Unknown Blue/Black Cards
Leyline of Anticipation can’t be between Laboratory Maniac and Magus of the Bazaar, and given the tendency for the set to include cycles, I think that could rule out Leyline of the Void and Leyline of Sanctity, but I’m not betting money on it.
Tamiyo, Moon Sage can’t be between Talrand and Temporal Manipulation.
Bribery can’t be between Back to Basics and Circular Logic.
Time Warp isn’t ruled out per se, but with Temporal Manipulation in the set, it’s unlikely card 78 is Time Warp. I feel the same way about Time Stretch, which needs a reprint badly.
Teferi, Temporal Archmage can’t be between Talrand and Temporal Manipulation.
Baral, Chief of Compliance can’t be between Back to Basics and Circular Logic.
There are a lot of cards we can’t rule out, but there is a lot of value in the ones we can. Blue was a treasure trove of crunched-out cards.
Black
82-84 Unknown Blue/Black Cards
85 Bitterblossom
86-88 Unknown Black Cards
89 Chainer’s Edict
90-92 Unknown Black Cards
93 Demonic Tutor
94 Entomb
95-98 Unknown Black Cards
99 Goryo’s Vengeance
100-101 Unknown Black Cards
102 Gurmag Angler
103 Unknown Black Card
104 Liliana of the Veil
105 Unknown Black Card
106 Mikaeus, the Unhallowed
107-109 Unknown Black Cards
110 Reanimate
111 Unknown Black Card
112 Shirei, Shizo’s Caretaker
113 Unknown Black Card
114 Slum Reaper
115 Unknown Black Card
116 Spoils of the Vault
117 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
118-123 Unknown Black/Red Cards
Liliana of the Veil all but rules out Liliana, Heretical Healer, which is creeping up in value.
Drana, Liberator of Malkir can’t be between Demonic Tutor and Entomb,
We can’t crunch much out of Black, but that’s fine since Black historically doesn’t have expensive EDH cards.
Red
118-123 Unknown Black/Red Cards
124 Balefire Dragon
125-127 Unknown Red Cards
128 Faithless Looting
129 Fiery Temper
130 Firewing Phoenix
131 Unknown Red Card
132 Gamble
133-135 Unknown Red Cards
136 Lava Spike
137 Unknown Red Card
138 Magmaw
139-143 Unknown Red Cards
144 Reckless Wurm
145 Unknown Red Card
146 Seismic Assault
147-149 Unknown Red Cards
150 Squee, Goblin Nabob
151 Unknown Red Card
152 Through the Breach
153 Unknown Red Card
154 Vexing Devil
155-156 Unknown Red/Green Cards
Fiery Confluence can’t be between Faithless Looting and Fiery Temper.
There isn’t much else, here. We can’t rule out anything we want to – Repercussion, Price of Glory, Mana Echoes, Wrath of Goad, Insurrection, Purphoros – the list is long. The important thing is Fiery Confluence is safe for a bit, goes in Legacy where it’s bought 4 copies at a time and is in that Kalemne deck with a bunch of other $20 cards.
Green
155-156 Unknown Red/Green Cards
157 Become Immense
158-162 Unknown Green Card
163 Eternal Witness
164 Fauna Shaman
165 Fecundity
166 Unknown Green Card
167 Golgari Grave-Troll
168 Unknown Green Card
169 Hero of Leina Tower
170-171 Unknown Green Cards
172 Life From The Loam
173 Miming Slime
174 Noble Hierarch
175 Nourishing Shoal
176 Pattern of Rebirth
177-183 Unknown Green Cards
184 Spider Umbra
185-186 Unknown Green Cards
187 Tarmogoyf
188 Travel Preparations
189 Vengevine
190-193 Unknown Green Cards
194 Wild Mongrel
195 Woodfall Primus
196-198 Unknown Green/Gold Cards
Mana Reflection can’t be between Life from the Loam and Miming Slime. That’s a pretty significant one. I would say that all but rules out Wound Reflection, also. It doesn’t exactly rule it out, but with the tendency toward cycles, I am betting my own personal money on it. I think Mana Reflection not being in the set is a gigantic punt and I also think they would have to know that so I could see a creative way to print Reflection in the next 12 months, so get in and get out. They seem too powerful for an EDH precon deck (Mana and Wound do, not so much the other 3 which are dirt cheap, anyway) so who knows what they’ll do? They surprised and delighted me with the Ixalan board game, the Guild Kits and other ways to reprint cards that need it.
Exploration can’t be between Eternal Witness and Fauna Shaman, and that’s very significant as well. Exploration seems to be trading printings off with Burgeoning, but Exploration seems like it’s too good for a set like Conspiracy/Battlebond (but so did Doubling Season) so we’ll see whether we have more than 6 months of growth on that.
Tooth and Nail can’t be between Tarmogoyf and Travel Preparations. Tempt With Discovery is in that same slot. Triumph of the Hordes is in the same 3 card block and is ruled out as well. Guess what else? Tireless Tracker. Guess what else? Titania, Protector of Argoth. Traverse the Outlands. Three Visits.
Mirri’s Guile can’t be between Miming Slime and Noble Hierarch and neither can’t Nature’s Will.
Gold
199 Gaddock Teeg
200-201 Unknown Gold Cards
202 Leovold
203 Lord of Extinction
204 Maelstrom Pulse
205 Unknown Gold Card
206 Sigarda, Host of Herons
207 Sovereigns of Lost Alara
208-212 Unknown Gold Cards
213 Dimir Guildmage
214 Unknown Gold Card
215 Fulminator Mage
216 Kitchen Finks
217-222 Unknown Gold Cards
223 Slippery Bogle
224 Unknown Gold Card
225 Fire//Ice
There isn’t much crunched out here, unfortunately.
Maelstrom Nexus can’t be between Lord of Extinction and Maelstrom Pulse, same with Maelstrom Archangel. I’m not excited.
236 Ancient Tomb
237 Cavern of Souls
238 Celestial Colonnade
239 Creeping Tar Pit
240 Unknown Land Card
241 Dark Depths
242 Unknown Land Card
243 Flagstone of Trokair
244 Karakas
245 Lavaclaw Reaches
246-247 Unknown Land Cards
248 Phyrexian Tower
249 Raging Ravine
250 Unknown Land Card
251 Stirring Wildwood
252-253 Unknown Land Cards
254 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth.
A few unexciting cards like Kor Haven are ruled out but for the most part, the value here is in the large number of $10+ blue and green EDH staples that are crunched out. If you’re looking to buy cards bound to go up now that they dodged the reprinter’s metaphorical axe, those are your best bets. I really like Mana Reflection, Wound Reflection, Bribery and Exploration.
That does it for me. We’ll have a full spoiler next week and we can dig down some more. Until then!
When you do these, you should consider cross-referencing with rarity. it tells you SO MUCH.
For example, all the mythics are known. so it’s all but assured that we CAN, in fact, rule out Tamiyo, all Elspeths, and honestly every other planeswalker.
There are other cards that, while technically could be downshifted, are very very unlikely to have been. Sneak Attack comes to mind.
You can also look at regular rares. There’s known to be 53 total and 51 are known. Furthermore, every monocolor section has been aloted 7 rare slots, and if this is true (and why should it not; they’ve only ever unbalanced colors at mythic before, I’m pretty sure), both missing rares are red. This isn’t foolproof (some rares get downgraded to uncommon, and I would have said this never happens to anything important before Lab Maniac this morning) but it’s still radically unlikely.
So it’s pretty safe, still, to assume that any non-mono-red card, likely to be rare, can be ruled out, and it’s even more sure that we can’t have more than 2, so if you are worried about a basket of 8 different cards, just buy them all and know you ~cannot~ get burned on more than 2/8, literal worst case scenario.
That is really good feedback. I felt like I didn’t want to make ANY assumptions and with the numerous rarity downshifts they have made, I wasn’t comfortable saying Elspeth couldn’t be rare or Food Chain couldn’t be uncommon or something insane given the unprecedented nature of everything surrounded this set.
I like your “Look, there can only be one card in the ‘starts with G-R-A-V-E as a black card’ slot so buy Gravecrawler, Grave Pact, Grave Titan and only get burned on one” method. It’s something I could see myself employing but it’s not something I care to endorse in my capacity as “advice giver.” I like the approach per se, but I have gotten a lot more careful in what I suggest over the years. The fact is, I feel like there is enough actionable here that is 100% no assumptions guaranteed that there’s no reason to take any risk at all and if that hadn’t been the case, going back through and taking some of the lines you suggested may be the play, but there’s enough meat on the bones that I don’t want to trifle with the best recipe for bone marrow, you dig?
Really, this was a great comment. Thanks for being engaged and while I am not inclined to pass some of these riskier methods on to readers, you’re probably right that I should at least let people know they are options for the ballsier among them.
Nice article; very informative!