The Math of Double Masters 2022

Welcome, let’s get down to the numbers of Double Masters 2022. We’ve got only 24 Draft Boosters per box and a mere 4 Collector Boosters per box, effectively upping the price for each pack.

We are also getting double the rares and mythics, along with some incredibly expensive reprints. Quite the assortment of value here, and with the numbers doubled, we’ve got some really amazing things and some real bulk mixed together.

So let’s dive in and see how rare these cards are, especially compared to rarities of sets past, as try to figure out what’s worth it and what isn’t.

The basics: 120 rares and 40 mythics means twice the odds in Draft Boosters (more on that in a minute) but the last two slots in a Collector Booster are split unevenly. 

We know which rares and mythics have a Borderless version and a Textured version. All rares and mythics have a foil-etched version. This list is going to be updated as previews get finished off.

Borderless Rare (30)Borderless Mythic (20)Textured Foil Borderless Mythic (5)
Aether Vial
Anger of the Gods
Assassin’s Trophy
Bloodforged Battle-Axe
Bloom Tender
Chaos Warp
City of Brass
Forbidden Orchard
Force of Negation
Gifts Ungiven
Glimpse the Unthinkable
Grand Arbiter Augustin IV
Grim Flayer
Hardened Scales
Kolaghan’s Command
Marchesa, the Black Rose
Oracle of Mul Daya
Phyrexian Altar
Pithing Needle
Sensei’s Divining Top
Smothering Tithe
Supreme Verdict
Surgical Extraction
Teferi’s Protection
The Mimeoplasm
Thousand-Year Storm
Vedalken Orrery
Allosaurus Shepherd
Cavern of Souls
Concordant Crossroads
Consecrated Sphinx
Crucible of Worlds
Dockside Extortionist
Dragonlord Dromoka
Elenda, the Dusk Rose
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
Imperial Seal
Kozilek, Butcher of Truth
Mana Drain
Mana Vault
Muldrotha, the Gravetide
Seasoned Pyromancer
Sedris, the Traitor King
Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
Kozilek, Butcher of Truth
Liliana, the Last Hope
Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre
Wrenn and Six

Let’s deal with the Borderless slot first. With 30 rares and 20 mythics, this is almost very straightforward in this slot of the Collector Booster. The rares are in the pool twice, then add the mythics. As a result, to get a specific Borderless rare, you’ve got a 1/40 chance. 

For the mythics, it’s a touch more complicated. The fifteen mythics that do NOT have a Textured version are a straight 1/80 to show up in that slot, but for the five that do, you need to flip a coin and see whether you get a Textured or not. 

To put in more specific terms, I’m 1/80 to get a Borderless Wrenn and Six of any type, but I’m 1/160 to get either a Textured foil or a Borderless.

The foil-etched slot has a lot more options. The set has 120 rares and 40 mythics, and that means the potential pulls are from 280 cards. Any foil-etched rare is 1/140 and any mythic is 1/280.

Have a table, to help summarize these things.

Because Wizards has a slot for the etched, and a slot for the Borderless, we’ve got an interesting situation. The rarest special versions this set will not be borderless, or even the textured foils. It’ll be the foil-etched mythics that do not have a borderless version.

Have another table:

Rares in foil-etched WITHOUT a Borderless version (1/140 packs)Mythics in foil-etched WITHOUT a Borderless Version (1/280 packs)
Abbot of Keral Keep
Abzan Ascendancy
Alesha, Who Smiles at Death
Anguished Unmaking
Arjun, the Shifting Flame
Ashenmoor Liege
Ashen Rider
Atarka’s Command
Atla Palani, Nest Tender
Backdraft Hellkite
Balefire Liege
Bedlam Reveler
Boartusk Liege
Bring to Light
Child of Alara
Conqueror’s Flail
Creakwood Liege
Dack’s Duplicate
Darksteel Plate
Dauntless Escort
Deathbringer Liege
Disciple of the Ring
Doran, the Siege Tower
Drogskol Reaver
Dromoka’s Command
Elsha of the Infinite
Empyrial Archangel
Fiery Justice
Figure of Destiny
Firesong and Sunspeaker
Glen Elendra Liege
Greater Gargadon
Green Sun’s Zenith
Guided Passage
Hostage Taker
Hydroid Krasis
Impervious Greatwurm
Intet, the Dreamer
Jeskai Ascendancy
Jodah, Archmage Eternal
Judith, the Scourge Diva
Kaervek the Merciless
Kambal, Consul of Allocation
Kederekt Leviathan
Legion’s Initiative
Leonin Arbiter
Magister Sphinx
Master Biomancer
Mathas, Fiend Seeker
Mikaeus, the Lunarch
Mindwrack Liege
Murkfiend Liege
Necrotic Ooze
Nim Deathmantle
Ob Nixilis, Unshackled
Oona’s Prowler
Phyrexian Tyranny
Pillar of the Paruns
Planar Bridge
Prized Amalgam
Pull from Tomorrow
Rafiq of the Many
Restoration Angel
Rishkar, Peema Renegade
Roon of the Hidden Realm
Ruric Thar, the Unbowed
Shattergang Brothers
Sidisi, Brood Tyrant
Skullbriar, the Walking Grave
Talrand, Sky Summoner
Tariel, Reckoner of Souls
Teneb, the Harvester
Thistledown Liege
Thrumming Stone
Ulasht, the Hate Seed
Varina, Lich Queen
Venser, Shaper Savant
Villainous Wealth
Wasitora, Nekoru Queen
Weathered Wayfarer
Wilt-Leaf Liege
Yahenni, Undying Partisan
Zur the Enchanter
Aminatou, the Fateshifter
Animar, Soul of Elements
As Foretold
Aurelia, the Warleader
Divine Visitation
Dragonlord Silumgar
Emiel the Blessed
Ezuri, Claw of Progress
Food Chain
Ghave, Guru of Spores
Hellkite Overlord
Kaalia of the Vast
Karador, Ghost Chieftain
Lord of Extinction
Master of Cruelties
Mizzix of the Izmagnus
Monastery Mentor
Nicol Bolas, God-Pharaoh
Uril, the Miststalker
Warrior’s Oath

As is the tradition, let’s have a comparison of cards at different rarities and finishes, to give another perspective:

CardRarityFrameApprox. # of packs to open oneValue of packs opened ($70/pack)
Teferi’s ProtectionRareBorderless40$2,800
Imperial SealMythicBorderless80$5,600
Wrenn and SixMythicTextured160$11,200
Green Sun’s ZenithRareFoil-Etched140$9,800
Food ChainMythicFoil-Etched280$19,600

And to finish off talk of Collector Boosters, let’s review where these packs and these cards rate as compared to sets from the last couple of years. Do note that these tables do NOT account for the different prices of packs, a problem which I will rectify soon.

Set NameOdds of a specific foil treatment rareOdds of a specific foil treatment mythic
Double Masters 20221/40 to 1/1401/80 to 1/280
CL: Battle for Baldur’s Gate1/881/176 to 1/352
Streets of New Capenna1/82 to 1/1641/164 to 1/492
Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty1/1361/272 up to 1/544
Innistrad: Crimson Vow1/741/171
Innistrad: Midnight Hunt1/75.51/151
Forgotten Realms1/631/126
Modern Horizons 21/126.51/253
Commander Legends EA Foils1/2041/400

Now the cards: 

Card/TreatmentSetOdds of pulling it from a Collector Booster (approx.)
Extended Art Foil Jeweled LotusCommander Legends1/400
Phyrexian Foil VorinclexKaldheim1/256
Japanese-Language Alternate Art Time Warp FoilStrixhaven (Mystical Archive)1/309
Foil Extended Art The Meathook MassacreInnistrad: Midnight Hunt1/151
Foil Fang Frame Sorin, the Mirthless by Ayami KojimaInnistrad: Crimson Vow1/171
Phyrexian foil (or foil-etched) Jin-GitaxiasKamigawa: Neon Dynasty1/544
Blue Soft Glow HidetsuguKamigawa: Neon Dynasty1/219
Green Soft Glow HidetsuguKamigawa: Neon Dynasty1/444
Red Soft Glow HidetsuguKamigawa: Neon Dynasty1/1828
Phyrexian Foil Urabrask, Heretic PraetorStreets of New Capenna1/492
Borderless Foil Ancient Brass DragonCommander Legends: Battle for Baldur’s Gate1/352
Foil Etched Food ChainDouble Masters 20221/280
Textured Borderless Foil Emrakul, the Aeons TornDouble Masters 20221/160

The way that Wizards changed the number of packs in a box, and therefore the cost per pack, outweighs the progress they made when increasing the drop rate for these cards. It’s also worth noting that a lot of Double Masters 2022 will end up at very low prices because of low demand for a lot of these cards. These slots will be very swingy indeed!

Draft Boosters are also relatively straightforward. There are no foil-etched cards, and there are no textured foils. Just foil Borderless and regular frame foil.

There’s two slots dedicated to rares or mythics. Same deal as the foil-etched slot applies, twice the rares means that any rare is 2/280 or 1/140, and any mythic is 1/280. Those are nonfoils, though, and represent how we’re going to get prices on regular copies so very low.

Trickier is that Borderless foils can show up in the third and fourth slots, along with foils in the regular frame. We’re explicitly told that your chances of a borderless foil rare or mythic in those slots is 1.25%, which comes out to 1/80 per slot for a borderless foil of either rarity. Since rares are twice as common as mythics, there’s a 1/240 chance of any borderless foil mythic in that slot and 1/120 for any borderless rare. Then we have to multiply by the number of cards (30 for rares, 20 for mythics) to get the chances of a specific foil borderless card. 

One more step. I’ve calculated all of these on a per-slot basis, so then this table has those odds x2, due to the pair of potential slots.

Any Traditional Foil Rare, regular frameAny Traditional Foil Mythic Rare, regular frameAny Borderless Foil RareAny Borderless Foil Mythic Rare
1 in 4.25 packs1 in 8.5 packs1 in 60 packs1 in 120 packs
Specific Borderless Foil Rare1 in 1800 packs
Specific Borderless Foil Mythic Rare1 in 2400 packs

I’m happy to talk about the math and my methods in the comments here, on Twitter, but especially in the ProTrader Discord. Please feel free to stop by and discuss your experiences and your pulls!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.