Ah, here we are, the dawn of a new set and a whole lot of numbers for me to crunch. Wizards has given us some information, and I can make some good estimates based on research, that combine to paint a pretty good picture of what we should expect in terms of how often the rarest cards drop.
A gentle reminder that this is statistics, not certainties. You might open two serialized cards in the same box, beating the odds. You might open two hundred CBS and not see a single serialized card.
Let’s get to the math, shall we?
Here is the official link for Collecting March of the Machine: https://magic.wizards.com/en/news/feature/collecting-march-of-the-machine. That’s got all the information we need for most of this.
Serialized cards: There’s 65 Multiverse Legends, 500 of each. In the next slot, there’s a spot for the five Praetor-Sagas to show up serialized. Then after that, a slot which could contain a serialized Uncommon from the set of 65. For any serialized card, you’re estimated to get one every 142.8 packs.
The serialized cards overrule whatever else you were going to open in that slot. We know that you’re less than 1% to open one, even with it being in three slots. There will be a total of 35,000 serialized cards to open, and given all the data we have, I’m estimating that it’s more like 0.07%, or one in 143, to open any serialized card of any rarity. Uncommon or Mythic, that’s your odds. If you want a specific card, you’re looking at 70x as many packs, or 10,010. Good luck!
Theoretically, you could open a pack with two serialized cards (one ML and one PS) but that’s something like .7% times .7%, which would be one in 20,408 packs. I would expect to see that a couple of times if I were watching every CB be opened. Three in a row? Sure, that’s only 1 in 2,915,452 packs. Possible, but incredibly unlikely. We estimate that there’s around 5 million Collector Booster packs printed per Standard set. If you get better information, please, reach out to me in the comments, on Discord, or Twitter.
I also want to talk about your odds of pulling a MUL card in Draft Boosters. Every Draft Booster gets a card from that subset. The ratio has traditionally been three uncommons for every one rare and for every .5 mythic rares. Means now it’s 6:2:1, and given the number we have at each rarity level, the pool you pull from for a MUL card is 15 mythics (1 of each), 60 rares, (2 of each), and 120 uncommons (6 of each). Total of 195, and that’s how many packs you’ll need to open to get a nonfoil Ragavan. Only six boxes!
We have a handy graphic for what’s in a Collector Booster, thank you Wizards:
Let’s work from the top of the image downwards (This would also be from the last card in the pack forward, whichever terminology works for you.)
We are given this ratio in the Collecting article for Collector Boosters, and each version has its own collector number:
Traditional foil in 75% of boosters
Foil etched in 14% of boosters
Halo foil in 10% of boosters
Serialized double rainbow in < 1% of boosters
This first (last) slot is only rares and mythics, and we’re also told that there are 20 uncommons, 30 rares, and 15 mythic rares. The uncommons will be in a different slot, so we get to focus on the rares and mythics. Wizards likes a 2:1 ratio for rares and mythics, so the pool of available cards will be 75 cards deep. Your chances of getting a specific rare are 2/75, or 1/37.5. Specific mythics are 1/75.
However, that’s for any version. We have no less than three foil treatments to choose from here. Given the ratios, we can figure out that for every Halo Foil Ragavan, we’ll get 1.4 Etched Foil and 7.5 Traditional Foil versions of the same card. In execution, this means we have to roll for a card and then roll for the version, not counting serialized versions because those are just miracle pulls. Let’s have a table for this slot only, so no uncommons:
| Rarity of card | CBs to get any version of a specific card | CBs to get a specific Traditional Foil | CBs to get a specific Etched Foil | CBs to get a specific Halo Foil |
| Rare | 37.5 | 50 | 267.9 | 375 |
| Mythic | 75 | 100 | 535.7 | 750 |
This is a clever trick by Wizards to make new rarities of a card without extra frames or art direction. It will add both a lot of traditional foil copies for those who like shiny things and at the same time, give high-end collectors something to chase that isn’t the serialized version.
The next slot is more of ‘everything else jammed in here’ feeling from the main set. This has all of the following, all rares and mythics in traditional foil. We’ve established that Praetors are around every 142.8 packs, but let’s count up what numbers we’re looking at for these cards.
| # of rares | # of mythics | |
| Planar Booster Fun from March of the Machine | 18 | 10 |
| Extended art from March of the Machine | 31 | 2 |
| Extended art from March of the Machine Jumpstart | 5 | |
| Borderless art from March of the Machine | 3 | |
| Extended art from March of the Machine Commander | 42 | 12 |
| 96 | 27 |
Important to note that these are foil pulls, and so there will be FEA versions of all the Commander cards. Other sets, there have been occasional foils, or EA only with no foils, and here we get the full FEA.
Our pool in this slot is 219 cards, which is lower than a lot of other sets have been if you compare them. ONE was every 326 for Phyrexian planeswalkers, and BRO was every 299 packs for FEA mythics. The big difference in MOM is that we don’t have multiple versions of the same card, aside from the Praetors.
I’m expecting a LOT of these cards to be out there, given the chase for serialized cards and the way players go after lotto tickets like this.
| Rarity | Percent chance for any card of that category | Percent chance for a specific card of that category | # of CBs to open one specific card from that category | |
| Planar Booster Fun from March of the Machine | Rare | 16.4% | 0.9% | 109.5 |
| Mythic | 9.1% | 0.45% | 219 | |
| Extended art from March of the Machine | Rare | 28.3% | 0.9% | 109.5 |
| Mythic | 0.9% | 0.45% | 219 | |
| Extended art from March of the Machine Jumpstart | Rare | 4.6% | 0.9% | 109.5 |
| Borderless art from March of the Machine | Mythic | 1.4% | 0.45% | 219 |
| Extended art from March of the Machine Commander | Rare | 38.4% | 0.9% | 109.5 |
| Mythic | 5.5% | 0.45% | 219 |
The MUL uncommons get two whole slots to themselves: one for Halo and Etched foils, plus the serialized versions, and then a slot dedicated to traditional foils alone. With 20 uncommons in that subset, you’ve got this set of odds over those two slots:
| Rarity | Percent chance for any card of that category | Percent chance for a specific card of that category | # of CBs to open one specific card from that category | |
| Halo Foil Uncommon from MUL subset | Uncommon | 25% | 1.25% | 80 |
| Etched Foil Uncommon from MUL subset | Uncommon | 75% | 3.75% | 26.7 |
| Traditional Foil Uncommon from MUL subset | Uncommon | 100% | 5% | 20 |
With all this in mind, let’s put the data together and get some outcomes for different cards we might be after:
| Rarity | Percent chance for any card of that category | Percent chance for a specific card of that category | # of CBs to open one specific card from that category | |
| MUL Traditional Foil | Uncommon | 100% | 5% | 20 |
| MUL Traditional Foil | Rare | 50% | 2% | 50 |
| MUL Traditional Foil | Mythic | 25% | 1% | 100 |
| MUL Etched Foil | Uncommon | 75% | 3.75% | 26.7 |
| MUL Etched Foil | Rare | 9.3% | 0.3% | 267.9 |
| MUL Etched Foil | Mythic | 4.6% | 0.18% | 535.7 |
| MUL Halo Foil | Uncommon | 25% | 1.25% | 80 |
| MUL Halo Foil | Rare | 6.6% | 2.6% | 375 |
| MUL Halo Foil | Mythic | 3.3% | 0.13% | 750 |
| MUL or MOM Serialized | Any | 0.7% | 0.0001% | 10,010 |
| MOM Planar Frame | Rare | 16.4% | 0.9% | 109.5 |
| MOM Planar Frame | Mythic | 9.1% | 0.45% | 219 |
| MOM Foil Extended Art | Rare | 28.3% | 0.9% | 109.5 |
| MOM Foil Extended Art | Mythic | 0.9% | 0.45% | 219 |
| MOM Jumpstart FEA | Rare | 4.6% | 0.9% | 109.5 |
| MOM Foil Borderless | Mythic | 1.4% | 0.45% | 219 |
| MOC Foil Extended Art | Rare | 38.4% | 0.9% | 109.5 |
| MOC Foil Extended Art | Mythic | 5.5% | 0.45% | 219 |
And finally, let’s look at examples of the rarest cards:
| Card/treatment/set | Approx. number of CBs needed to find one copy |
| Serialized Foil Double Rainbow Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer (MUL) | 10,010 |
| Traditional Foil Planar Frame Sheoldred, Whispering One (MUL) | 100 |
| Etched Planar Foil Atraxa, Praetors’ Voice (MUL) | 535.7 |
| Halo Foil Niv-Mizzet Reborn (MUL) | 750 |
| Traditional Foil Borderless Wrenn and Realmbreaker (MOM) | 219 |
| Traditional Foil Extended Art Guardian Scalelord (MOC) | 109.5 |
There’s a lot of numbers here, and I’ve tried to clarify what is going on in each, as well as explain my math. If you want to discuss this, or point out my mistakes, please reach out on Twitter, in the Discord, or the comments below!
[/hide]Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.