Monthly Archives: June 2023

Floor Reports

PREMIUM MAGIC THE GATHERING CARD ARBITRAGE AT MAGICCON MINNEAPOLIS

Hi everyone! Thank you for the tremendous support and positive feedback I received from my first article! I could not ask for a warmer welcome.

As some of you know, I recently returned from MagicCon Minneapolis, which is the second of four major MTG conventions this year that will culminate in the World Championships in Las Vegas, Sep 22-24, 2023. The three days in Minneapolis allowed for the meeting of friends both old and new, countless games played, and much exciting business to be conducted. For this article I want to focus on one aspect of my experience, specifically my observations on collecting and trading premium Magic cards in the current environment. 

A key focus for me lately has been the recent releases of the serialized cards in MOM, the “giveaway” Secret Lair cards (limited each to 295 copies), and the Secret Lair Prize Cards (exclusive to MagicCon events). Why do we care about these cards in particular? The short answer is that MTG as a collectible card game is evolving and for all of you engaged in the MTG Finance community, it is imperative to take note of the opportunities for short term arbitrage associated with time boxed or location specific limited releases. Allow me to illustrate my point here through several personal anecdotes from the floor of Magiccon Minneapolis. 

First, let’s begin with the serialized MOM cards. As a refresher, WOTC decided to serialize in editions of 500 each of the 65 Multiverse Legend cards from MOM and the 5 new Praetors. That’s a whooping 35,000 serialized cards injected into the MTG community. The community’s feedback I would argue has been mixed. While everyone loves to see Ragavan in a masterpiece frame, not everyone is so enthused by a serial number stuck to a card with the same art with average foiling. Furthermore, no one can really understand why a bunch of uncommons (Daxos? Yargle?) get serialized treatment. These are indeed somewhat baffling production choices. On the other hand the unique art exclusive to the serialized versions of the new Praetors are stunning ultra low print run collectibles and the market has responded accordingly.


I arrived in Minneapolis with 8 serialized cards, including 3 serialized new Praetors (Elesh Norn, Sheoldred, Jin-Gitaxias). I had snapped up these Praetors during the prerelease windows (each at $800 or less), theorizing the unique art would make them quite desirable. I consigned the 8 serialized cards through a vendor friend of mine who had a booth, and 6 cards sold including all the Praetors (Elesh Norn $2000, Sheoldred $1700, Jin-Gitaxias $1500). A few points here worth reporting: 1) the vendor noted that many buyers came up looking for serialized cards, and the Praetors were some of the most asked about cards at the show; 2) all the serialized cards sold within 5% of the asking price; and 3) there were few serialized cards on the floor until the last day and almost no Praetors (whatever was tabled, ended up sold). 

My takeaway here is that serialized cards with top-notch unique art deserve special attention. When these cards also happen to be playable, as is the case with the Praetors, the demand and price support are readily found in the market. Note that even without unique art, I had success selling my serialized Emry, Lutri, and Zada at a profit – simply because they are playable and as a “one of a kind” serialized card, they found a home in someone’s very blinged-out EDH deck. It’s clear that serialized cards will exist from here on out given the announcements for LOTR. Though it may be tempting to brush off serialized cards as some lame marketing gimmick ported over from the sports card world, we have enough data at this point to show that there is clear demand from buyers for these cards as a new tier of premium MTG collectible. The fact that EDH is the dominant format for MTG and is a singleton format only helps the cause for serialized cards, as players are indeed willing to spend to “bling out” a favorite deck. The obvious corollary is that there’s going to be downward pressure on the basic versions of serialized cards, as the value in new sets is now spread out and skewed in favor of super-rare chase cards. 

The second anecdote I’d like to share concerns probably one of the ugliest MTG cards in recent memory (my subjective opinion shared by many!).  I present to you the Secret Lair 295 Giant Growth:

This specimen is limited to 295 copies, which were given out randomly to MagicCon attendees (with a bias towards content creators and kids). This Giant Growth is the second Secret Lair 295 card given out, with the first being the Shivan Dragon (see above right), which was distributed at MagicCon Philly. The dust has settled on the Shivan Dragon, and we know that the current market price is around $2,000 based on extensive data points from Facebook sales. Giant Growth is virtually unplayable in every format. Given the troublesome art and the lack of playability, a couple vendors I know of took the brave step of paying $500 for the Giant Growth as the first copies hit the floor. I immediately went and bought 2 copies each at $600. One vendor professed that the card probably should be worth $200 as it’s so unappealing and was worried he’s taking a bath by even paying $500. My own logic however was that the card is a serialized release tied to a major MTG event. While this is no Shivan Dragon, there will surely be foreign buyers and other premium collectors that would pay $800? Even $1,000?  Within hours I had my answer. SCG said they were buying copies at $1,000 (which came down eventually to $500 during the weekend), and on Facebook, copies sold to collectors pretty briskly at $800-1,000 (as I’m writing this article, this is still the market price). I sold both my copies on the first day within hours of receiving them for $1,000 each, pocketing $400 profit per copy. Sweet!

Lessons learned? The principle of scarcity is relevant here in that the limited supply of this card, which was released within a very narrow window, created its own demand. Collectors and vendors did not want to miss out, and this pretty mediocre card still found its support in the market at a robust price. With these limited releases, especially with cards that are mediocre at best, it’s important to move quickly and take advantage of scarcity value. You need to know your outs (Facebook groups and Twitter), and be disciplined and informed with the right data (i.e., Shivan Dragon 295 is $2,000, so an out for Giant Growth at $1,000 is more than respectable). We can expect more of these 295 cards will appear in MagicCon Barcelona and Vegas. If offered the opportunity to buy a mysterious 295 card on site for $500, would you? The answer may well deserve to be yes, especially if the print runs and singles event releases stay consistent.

My last anecdote concerns a very special card shown here:

Ragavan needs no introduction, but this is the Secret Lair Prize version. This card exists in foil only with a total population of 128 copies to be distributed during the four MagicCon events this year. To date, 64 copies have been put into circulation, and it’s worthwhile to study the price behavior for this card. I attended MagicCon Philly and was an aggressive buyer of this card as soon as copies came into circulation. Vendors had originally buylisted the card at $1,000, then $1,250, and eventually close to $2,000. It became clear that there was extraordinary demand, as the art is highly unique and desirable to many for this truly iconic card. I was able to procure two copies of this card at $2,200 and $2,400, which I then sold shortly after Philly for $2,800 and $3,300. I flag this particular card because coincidentally in Philly, the Multiverse Legend version of Ragavan was announced including a serialized edition. Many thought that this Secret Lair Prize version was doomed for failure because the same card is being hit for reprint twice in succession and both in a premium treatment. 

The question is what happened in Minneapolis? Instead of seeing any price pressure, the Secret Lair Prize Ragavan saw a significant price increase. Vendors told me they had to pay $2,400 to $2,800 in buylist just to get a copy. Most copies procured also had ready buyers on the back end. Meanwhile, serialized Ragavans (not special numbers) have slipped to the $1,200 range even when many swore that the Masterpiece frame can’t be beat. It is clear that yet again, the art matters and for a staple card like Ragavan, the very limited number of 128 copies will carry the day. It does not matter that a Masterpiece frame exists, as that art treatment is printed into oblivion now and the serialized version of Ragavan is the same card. 

Recognizing this unique price trend, I suspect that this Ragavan may see yet another ratchet, especially in 6 to 12 months once all copies are given out. I opted to reinvest some of my gains from above into a personal copy.  

I hope the above stories from the floor provide you all with some interesting windows into how the MTG community is responding to the recent limited and special edition cards. I will look forward to reporting again soon when LOTR drops and we see some numbered rings enter the market and we get a glimpse of how the market forms on 1900 serialized Sol Rings and the mighty single copy of The One Ring. Until next time!

Casual Fridays

Humans, Humans, Everywhere!

There’s a lot going on in the Lord of the Rings set. In the early previews, we’ve gotten a pretty fantastic build-around Commander, who does something unique in a prevalent tribe and in some new colors:

Éowyn, Shieldmaiden, is not a defensive Commander, despite her name. She wants a legion of Humans coming into play, attacking for a bunch, and drawing you cards. This looks to be a fun build, focusing on a tribe that doesn’t have a strong, thematic, multicolor Commander. There’s a couple members of the Kudro family, and several versions of Sigarda who want you to play Humans, but Éowyn tells you exactly what to do, preferably the turn she comes into play so you can get some bonuses immediately.

This is probably going to cause some spikes going forward, and let’s make a preliminary list and see what we can do right away.

I’m not going to lie: There’s a boatload and a half of choice for a Humans deck. Scryfall says there’s 2,037 humans in these colors, and while I think my choices are defensible, more will pop. That’s just the nature of things. Secondly, with Commander Masters coming, plus Secret Lairs, etc., reprints are going to hit some of these cards. It’s pretty certain that at least one of these will be reprinted soon, actually more than one because my first mention is a confirmed reprint for later this year.

Rick, Steadfast Leader ($50 or so) – I have said on podcasts and articles what a terrible idea it is for new cards to only be available in special forms like this. The Walking Dead Secret Lair was the first example of this, and they’ve gone back to this well, promising to use The List to put more copies out there. It’s been done for Stranger Things, it’s due for Street Fighter and the recent D&D set as well.

Rick will get reprinted in The List for Wilds of Eldraine, along with Negan and the whole crew. Rick is clearly the best of the bunch, giving two good abilities and a huge stat boost for only four mana. Being at $50 right now, this is a card you really want to have in any Human-based deck, and the good news is that The List copies, while only being available in nonfoil, promise to be a lot cheaper.

The originals, only available in foil, have a chance to appreciate from here and I think you can at least be able to move any copies you have from $50 to $75. It moves a couple copies a day, and offers a chance at some profit. At the least, get your personal copy now if you want a shiny version.

Esper Sentinel ($30 for the cheapest version, up to about $46 for the most expensive) – A very strong contender for a reprint in CMM in August, this does everything you want in a Humans deck. It draws you cards when your opponents do things they are guaranteed to do, and also offers you a chance to play a one-drop Human for Éowyn, play her, and profit.

Esper Sentinel has reached mega-staple status on EDHREC, being in 256,000 listed decks, and so the reprint is coming. Until it does, Éowyn is going to be part of why this card keeps rising higher and higher.

Hanweir Garrison ($5-$8) and Hanweir Battlements ($4-$9) – These are two cards that haven’t really had a deck that allows them to sing, but are perfect for Éowyn. We want haste, we want lots and lots of Humans, and everyone loves Melding cards for giant cards. 

The only thing that doesn’t work is that the Garrison’s attack trigger happens a little too late for Éowyn’s trigger, which is at the beginning of combat. Garrison is one of the fastest ways to get to six Humans, though, so when this starts climbing, be ready to cash in.

Grand Abolisher ($27 to $121) – Another card that’s begging for a reprint, the only foils of this from M12 are more than a hundred bucks. As useful Humans go, this one is worth the price of admission.

Having this in play gives you such a feeling of security, that nothing can go wrong. This ought to be in more decks, but it’s so noninteractive that I think Wizards has been hesitant to reprint it. I’m constantly surprised that it’s not played in Modern more. If it dodges a reprint in CMM this summer, we’ll see this grow as folks want the warm safety blanket.

Sakashima of a Thousand Faces ($27-$40), Sakashima the Impostor ($3 to $143) and Sakashima’s Student ($14, no foils) – It’s easy to forget that these aren’t just Clone effects, they are Humans and will work with lots of effects. You might not want them to come in as copies of your Humans, but you might also want them to copy your Commander, which two of them can do. 

Again, I’m expecting at least one of these to catch a reprint in Commander Masters, so speculate carefully, but these cards are also under pressure from clone themes and ninja decks, so this isn’t just a spec based on Éowyn.

Hero of Precinct One (all under $1) – Now let’s get to the cards that synergize best with Éowyn’s text box. In this instance, if you have the Hero, and cast Éowyn, you’ll get the trigger, create a token, and then Éowyn will see that you had a Human come into play and all of her fun happens. If you have even one other Human, you’ll immediately get a card.

This was from Ravnica Allegiance, so there’s no special versions, only regular and foil. This is a pretty cheap card to get a premium treatment now, but we’ll see about the reprints we get going forward. For now, buy a brick now and buylist them out for $2 each.

Outlaws’ Merriment (50¢ to $8) – There have been a lot of ways to potentially use this random effect, especially given the ‘party’ mechanic, but no matter which token you get, it’s good with Éowyn. It’s a damn shame that Assemble the Legion is Soldier tokens, but you get what you get. For the Merriment, I think I’d prefer to be stocked up on the super-cheap copies, though the FEA versions are also at their lowest:

As a mythic from the first FEA set, there aren’t a lot of these on TCG right now and if you’re going to go build Éowyn’s deck, this is an excellent place to start. The low number of copies is appealing on the FEA, but there’s definite brick potential in buying a whole lot under a dollar and buylisting them for double to triple that.

Thraben Doomsayer (25¢ to $3) – Foils at $3 would be the play here, as they are from 2012 and there are relatively few in circulation. Nonfoils were in Commander 2020 decks, and there’s a very large number of those around. Again, this as a play before Éowyn means you get all of Éowyn’s goodness on the turn she comes down, and I hope you’re never in a Fateful Hour situation.

Gallows at Willow Hill (25¢ to 75¢) – Finally, a pet card of mine when I had a Humans token deck a while ago. You will be amazed at the number of times you can activate this card with token makers like Call the Coppercoats, Increasing Devotion, Reverent Hoplite, etc. Reusable ways to destroy creatures is a great way to make up for how undersized your Humans are, and if there’s no good attacks, you can just solve target problem. I don’t think this will bite hard price-wise, but it’s an example of the random Humans and Human accessories we’re about to see spike.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.