Once more, dear friends, we head into the Collecting articles and try to turn a bunch of percentages into numbers that make sense. Wizards is boh obligated to be clear, due to the gambling laws in different areas, but has a vested interest in obfuscating the sheer number of packs it’ll take to get these rare cards.
With a little division and a reciprocal, we can take their percentages for a category and turn that into a clear number of needed packs to get the cards we want. Statistics aren’t guarantees, so keep that in mind when you’re using this guide.
Let’s get to the numbers.
There are THREE subsets of cards in this set. Three! We’ve got the REX set, which is all new cards using Jurassic World as inspiration, a mini-Universes Beyond. We’ve got the Special Guests, who can show up in any booster, and then we’re given Box Toppers.
The Box Toppers are pretty special this time around. Draft and Set Booster boxes get a nonfoil single-card pack, and Collector Boosters get a foil. There are 20 Toppers, referred to as the Treasure Trove and have the same LCC code as the Lost Caverns Commander set. Your odds are not 1/20, though, because there’s three rarities. One card, Chimil, the Inner Sun, is a new LCI card and the rest are reprints.
Let’s have a table, one that lists the rarity of each of your options, and your odds. Remember that you get one card PER BOX, so the numbers here are going to look different compared to the number of packs needed later in this article.
| Type/Rarity (# of options) | Percent chance for any card of that category | Percent chance for a specific card of that category | # of CB BOXES to open one specific card from that category |
| Uncommon (8):Arcane SignetColossus HammerEverflowing ChaliceExpedition MapLightning GreavesThought VesselWhispersilk CloakWorn Powerstone | 62% | 7.75% | 12.9 Boxes |
| Rare (7):Archaeomancer’s MapAmulet of VigorCoat of ArmsFist of SunsMimic VatStrionic ResonatorTemple Bell | 28% | 4% | 25 Boxes |
| Mythic Rare (5):Wedding RingChalice of the VoidChimil, the Inner SunChromatic OrreryCoercive Portal | 10% | 2% | 50 Boxes |
I note that mythics are twice as hard to get as rares, which are twice as hard to get as uncommons. I like when there’s a clear progression, but it doesn’t always track this way. Just appeals to the symmetrist buried deep in my skull. Fifty boxes is 600 packs, and that’s second on today’s list of ‘how damn rare are these rares?!’
In each Collector Booster, there are slots for subsets of cards. We’re going to start around the middle, with the foil Uncommons and their Special Guests, and then jump two slots to the Commander cards, going upwards on this graphic:
Pitiless Plunderer is the main uncommon I care about, but others may have some impact as well. So I’ve arranged a table for these uncommons, and sure enough, the Special Guests are a tough card to open, even at uncommon:
| Type/Rarity (# of options) | Percent chance for any card of that category | Percent chance for a specific card of that category | # of CBs to open one specific card from that category |
| Uncommon Borderless Foil Special Guest (5) | 3% | 0.6% | 166.67 |
| Uncommon Borderless Foil Dinosaur (6) | 41% | 6.83% | 14.6 |
| Uncommon Showcase Foil Lost Caverns of Ixalan (8) | 55% | 6.88% | 14.5 |
Next, let’s look at the Commander cards, which covers some of the legends and new cards. We get a slot of alternate frames, with both foils and nonfoils present in the same slot.
Note that the article doesn’t give separate stats for rares and mythics, so I’m forced to presume that they fall at equal rates. This sort of makes sense: rarity in the Commander lists is sort of irrelevant, and this includes what used to be the Jumpstart cards. If we get data or an update that indicates otherwise, I’ll come back and edit this section with the new numbers.
| Type/Rarity (# of options) | Percent chance for any card of that category | Percent chance for a specific card of that category | # of CBs to open one specific card from that category |
| Nonfoil Alternate Frame Commander Rare (6) | 87.5% | 4.375% | 22.85 |
| Nonfoil Alternate Frame Commander Mythic Rare (14) | 87.5% | 4.375% | 22.85 |
| Foil Alternate Frame Commander Rare (6) | 12.5% | 0.625% | 160 |
| Foil Alternate Frame Commander Mythic Rare (14) | 12.5% | 0.625% | 160 |
Next up, a nonfoil Showcase or Borderless card, either rare or mythic.
| Type/Rarity (# of options) | Percent chance for any card of that category | Percent chance for a specific card of that category | # of CBs to open one specific card from that category |
| Nonfoil Showcase Rare (8) | 22.5% | 2.81% | 35.5 |
| Nonfoil Showcase Mythic Rare (11) | 14.8% | 1.34% | 74.32 |
| Nonfoil Borderless Rare (18) | 50.7% | 2.81% | 35.5 |
| Nonfoil Borderless Mythic Rare (14) | 10.56% | 0.75% | 132.57 |
| Nonfoil Borderless Quintorius Kand (1) | 0.7% | 0.7% | 142.8 |
| Nonfoil Showcase Quintorius Kand (1) | 0.7% | 0.7% | 142.8 |
After that, a Jurassic World slot! Nonfoil, traditional foil, and Emblem variants all appear here at different rates, ranging from ‘pretty common’ to ‘holy guacamole that is mega rare!’
| Type/Rarity (# of options) | Percent chance for any card of that category | Percent chance for a specific card of that category | # of CBs to open one specific card from that category |
| Nonfoil Borderless Nonlands (20) | 36.3% | 1.8% | 55.1 |
| Nonfoil Borderless Lands (6) | 43.6% | 7.26% | 13.7 |
| Traditional Foil Borderless Nonlands (20) | 8.9% | 0.445% | 224.72 |
| Traditional Foil Borderless Lands (6) | 10.7% | 1.78% | 56.07 |
| Traditional Foil Emblem Variant (19) | 0.5% | 0.02% | 3800 |
I’ve been tracking rarities for years, and 3800 is among the hardest pulls without getting into serialized cards. It’s analogous to the original Realms and Relics Surge foils, and slightly MORE rare than Human Sol Rings (xxx/900) were in the summer LOTR release.
Finally, a slot for Booster Fun variants:
| Type/Rarity (# of options) | Percent chance for any card of that category | Percent chance for a specific card of that category | # of CBs to open one specific card from that category |
| Traditional Foil Extended Art Rare (38) | 46.7% | 1.23% | 81.37 |
| Traditional Foil Extended Art Mythic Rare (2) | 1.2% | 0.6% | 166.67 |
| Traditional Foil Showcase Rare (8) | 9.8% | 1.22% | 81.6 |
| Traditional Foil Showcase Mythic Rare (12) | 6.7% | .56% | 179.1 |
| Traditional Foil Borderless Rare (18) | 22% | 1.22% | 81.81 |
| Traditional Foil Borderless Mythic Rare (8) | 4.9% | 0.61% | 163.27 |
| Traditional Foil Borderless Special Guest Rare or Mythic Rare (13) | 8% | 0.61% | 162.5 |
| Neon Ink Mana Crypt or Cavern of Souls (11) | Less than 1% (.7% if these numbers are correct) | 0.7% | At least every 142 packs for any non-yellow version of either |
The different variants of Neon Ink aren’t listed as how common they are in relation to each other. All we’re told is “Here are the colors as they appear in order from rarest to least rare: three-color, red, purple, blue, green, and yellow.” Yellow is the LGS’s version to give away, and should be the cheapest version by far. I would love to give you more specifics but they haven’t told us yet. Still, at under 1%, you’re looking at ANY Neon Ink about every 142 packs. (for specifically Mana Crypt or Cavern, it would be double that, 284)
One thing that jumps out at me is how close this distribution is to the model we used to get, that rares are always twice as common as mythics. They don’t have it in a straightforward model, at least not quite yet, but for this set, the math holds.
The second thing I notice is that the foil REX cards are hard to pull at around 224 CB packs for a specific copy, but the Emblem foils are roughly as rare as the 900 serialized Human Sol Rings. These will end up super expensive. If you find some for preorder, I’d imagine a lot of the orders will get canceled.
Finally, let’s get a table in with some specific cards, and I’m skipping the Neon Ink variants because I’m not sure what the precise numbers are.
| Card/treatment/set | Approx. number of CBs needed to find one copy |
| Emblem Foil Indomitus Rex, Alpha (REX) | 3800 |
| Borderless Foil Special Guest Pitiless Plunderer (SPG) | 166.67 |
| Borderless Foil Special Guest Mirri, Weatherlight Duelist (SPG) | 162.5 |
| Traditional Foil Showcase Ojer Taq, Deepest Fountation (LCI) | 179.1 |
| Borderless Foil Permission Denied (REX) | 224.72 |
| Traditional Foil Showcase Hakbal of the Surging Soul (LCC) | 160 |
| Treasure Trove Foil Chromatic Orrey (LCC) | 600 |
| Treasure Trove Foil Strionic Resonator (LCC) | 300 |
| Treasure Trove Foil Worn Powerstone (LCC) | 156 |
I hope these tables and figures make sense to you, and if they don’t, I strongly encourage you to reach out on the ProTrader Discord, hit me up on Twitter, or leave some comments. I’m happy to explain my methods. Good luck and open well!
Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.