The Mana Math of Modern Horizons 3

Welcome back the the Mana Math series, where I break down the odds we’re given for the new set. This time, we’ve got no huge subsets in Modern Horizons 3, but we do have a lot of fun bonus frames and treatments, including 750 serialized Eldrazi Titans. 

Wizards has given us an enormous number of treatments, frames, foiling and rarity, meaning that some of these tables might be a bit intimidating. Buckle up, though, because I did the math and hopefully this is easy for you.

One thing to mention is that Collector Boosters have zero Ripple Foils. Those are reserved for the premium Commander decks, and will command very high prices, given how the deck is selling for $500+ right now on TCGPlayer. There’s no option to open those in any other product, so you won’t see any Ripple here. 

Here’s the breakdown of what’s in a Collector Booster, organized by slots: (note: foil = traditional foil unless otherwise noted)

4 foil commons

3 foil uncommons

1 foil full art Eldrazi land

1 nonfoil retro common/uncommon

1 foil retro common/uncommon

1 foil reg frame rare/mythic

1 Commander card: Foil-etched Commander mythic rare or a non-foil or traditional foil Booster Fun Commander rare or mythic rare

2 nonfoil rares or mythic rares with the borderless, extended-art, or retro frame treatment

1 Traditional foil rare or mythic rare that’s an extended-art, borderless, or retro frame card, or one of the following: A double rainbow serialized Eldrazi, A foil-etched rare or mythic rare, A traditional foil Special Guests mythic rare (10 cards total—4.4%), A textured foil Special Guests Elemental (1.9%) or DFC planeswalker (1.9%). The remainder of this slot has the same content as the non-foil slot above with the percentages reduced appropriately to account for the inclusion of serialized, foil-etched, textured foil, and Special Guests cards.

Let’s go over the 2 nonfoil slots with special frames, which is unusual in one Collector Booster. I’ll go over the odds for one (this will be important in a moment) and review the chances for one pack.

Treatment (# of cards)Percent chance for any card of that category (over the two slots)Percent chance for a specific card of that category (slot odds)Percent chance for a specific card of that category (pack odds)# of CBs to open one specific card from that category (pack odds)
Extended-Art Rare (20)45.40%1.14%2.27%44.05
Extended-Art Mythic Rare (1)1.10%0.55%1.10%90.91
Borderless Framebreak Rare (20)29.60%0.74%1.48%67.57
Borderless Framebreak Mythic Rare (3)2.80%0.47%0.94%106.38
Borderless Profile Rare (10)18.20%0.91%1.82%54.95
Borderless Profile Mythic Rare (5)4.60%0.46%0.92%108.70
Borderless Concept Eldrazi Profile Mythic Rare (3)1.70%0.28%0.57%176.47
Borderless Fetchlands Rare (5)5.70%0.57%1.14%87.72
Borderless Rare Land (5)11.40%1.14%2.28%43.86
Borderless Mythic Rare Land (1)1.10%0.55%1.10%90.91
Borderless Mythic Rare DFC Planeswalkers (5)5.70%0.57%1.14%87.72
New-To-Modern Borderless Framebreak Rare (6)13.60%1.13%2.27%44.12
New-To-Modern Borderless Framebreak Mythic Rare (1)0.60%0.30%0.60%166.67
New-To-Modern Borderless Profile Rare (2)4.60%1.15%2.30%43.48
New-To-Modern Borderless Profile Mythic Rare (2)1.70%0.43%0.85%117.65
New-To-Modern Borderless Mythic Rare (1)1.10%0.55%1.10%90.91
Retro Frame MH3 Rare (incl fetches) (24)28.40%0.59%1.18%84.51
Retro Frame MH3 Mythic Rare (8)5.70%0.36%0.71%140.35
Retro Frame New-To-Modern Rare (2)4.60%1.15%2.30%43.48
Retro Frame New-To-Modern Mythic Rare (1)1.10%0.55%1.10%90.91
Retro Frame MH2 Rare (2)4.50%1.13%2.26%44.25
Retro Frame MH2 Mythic Rare (6)6.80%0.57%1.13%88.24

The slot after the two nonfoil special frames is then foil, with the percentages as given above. A little arithmetic, and now we know that the stuff in the nonfoil slots fill up 78.6% of the special foil slot.

So this means we can take the nonfoil (the two slots before) and multiply those single-slot odds by .786 to get the chance that the foil version shows up in this last slot. I know these tables are long, but that’s the fault of Wizards, who put twenty-seven different permutations of finishes, foils, groups and rarities into this one slot.

Treatment (# of cards)% chance for any nonfoil card of that type (prev slot)% chance for any foil of that type (one slot)Percent chance for a specific card of that category# of CBs to open one specific card from that category
Foil Extended-Art Rare (20)22.70%17.84%0.89%112.09
Foil Extended-Art Mythic Rare (1)0.55%0.43%0.55%181.82
Foil Borderless Framebreak Rare (20)14.80%11.63%0.58%171.93
Foil Borderless Framebreak Mythic Rare (3)1.40%1.10%0.37%272.63
Foil Borderless Profile Rare (10)9.10%7.15%0.72%139.81
Foil Borderless Profile Mythic Rare (5)2.30%1.81%0.36%276.58
Foil Borderless Concept Eldrazi Profile Mythic Rare (3)0.85%0.67%0.22%449.03
Foil Borderless Fetchlands Rare (5)2.85%2.24%0.45%223.20
Foil Borderless Rare Land (5)5.70%4.48%0.90%111.60
Foil Borderless Mythic Rare Land (1)0.55%0.43%0.43%232.56
Foil Borderless Mythic Rare DFC Planeswalkers (5)2.85%2.24%0.45%223.20
Foil New-To-Modern Borderless Framebreak Rare (6)6.80%5.34%0.89%112.26
Foil New-To-Modern Borderless Framebreak Mythic Rare (1)0.30%0.24%0.24%416.67
Foil New-To-Modern Borderless Profile Rare (2)2.30%1.81%0.90%110.63
Foil New-To-Modern Borderless Profile Mythic Rare (2)0.85%0.67%0.33%299.36
Foil New-To-Modern Borderless Mythic Rare (1)0.55%0.43%0.43%232.56
Foil Retro Frame MH3 Rare (incl fetches) (24)14.20%11.16%0.47%215.03
Foil Retro Frame MH3 Mythic Rare (8)2.85%2.24%0.28%357.13
Foil Retro Frame New-To-Modern Rare (2)2.30%1.81%0.90%111.11
Foil Retro Frame New-To-Modern Mythic Rare (1)0.55%0.43%0.43%232.56
Foil Retro Frame MH2 Rare (2)2.25%1.77%0.88%113.09
Foil Retro Frame MH2 Mythic Rare (6)3.40%2.67%0.45%224.52
Foil-Etched Rare (12)9.30%0.78%129.03
Foil-Etched Mythic Rare (10)3.90%0.39%256.41
Traditional Foil Special Guest (10)4.40%0.44%227.27
Textured Foil DFC Planeswalker (5)1.90%0.38%263.16
Textured Foil Special Guest Elemental (5)1.90%0.38%263.16

After reviewing this table, there’s a couple things worth noting.

First, even the commonest foils are not that common. FEA rares, usually something that takes up most of this slot, is still going to be a 1-in-110 packs chance to get a specific card. That’s high compared to other sets with breakdowns like this.

Second, some of these variations are impressively rare (aside from the serialized, which I’ll address in a moment) and difficult to pull from packs that cost around twice as much as a regular set’s Collector Booster. The most difficult pulls will be the eight mythic foil retro frame cards (357 packs), the foil framebreak Kaalia of the Vast is going to take roughly 416 packs, and the three new Eldrazi titans in foil borderless concept frame will take about 449 packs to be pulled. 

Third, I can’t imagine cracking packs for value here. It’s going to be extremely swingy, depending on which cards you pull. With packs being $35 or so each, you’re going to see some packs super pricey and some packs full of the chaff of the set. 

One category that people always want to know about is fetchlands. In Play Boosters, there are several slots that can get you a fetchland, and they add up to just under 9% for any fetchland, from the variety of options available. Worth noting that 2/3 of the fetches pulled from Play Boosters will be nonfoil regular frame, so keep that in mind.

In Collector Boosters, you’ve got five slots that can give you a fetchland, and they add up nicely. About a quarter of CBs will have a foil fetchland, and around 30% will have a nonfoil. There are, of course, packs that open more than one fetchland, and someone will absolutely open a Collector Booster with the full five fetches. Just keep in mind that about half of all CBs will have at least one fetchland. 

Finally, let’s talk about the xxx/250 serialized Eldrazi. Once again, it’s a double rainbow foiling applied to art that already is in use in the set. I strongly wish that they would go back to the March of the Machine idea and give the serialized cards their own art, but I’m not in charge of stuff. They don’t give us an approximate drop rate for these cards, so we’re forced to use an estimate. 

With 750 cards to distribute, we can figure out a relative drop rate and a number of packs. If it’s one per pack, that’s 750 packs in the world. If there’s a serialized in one percent of packs, it’s 75,000 packs. As a reference, the LOTR Holiday Edition had 1.5 million packs and the LOTR main edition had 3.3 million Collector Boosters. I think we’re somewhere in between those, with around two million Collector Boosters printed, and a drop rate of one in 2,666 packs or so. (If you like percentages, that’s 0.0375%.) That’s an estimate based on other data points that we don’t always get. If I get better information, I’ll update this post.

I hope this helps you make clear decisions about your buying, your opening, and hopefully, your profitable selling. If you have questions about my methods, or if you caught an error, please reach out to me on Twitter or in the ProTrader Discord.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

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