The Mana Math of Universes Beyond: Assassin’s Creed

I know the Pro Tour started early this morning, and we’ve got a lot to unpack there, but there’s a set that’s officially released on July 5: Universes Beyond: Assassin’s Creed!

This is a small set, with smaller booster packs, and a smaller print run, but if you want to know your odds of getting things in those packs (or if you should just buy the singles) then let’s sit down and do the math!

Let’s start off with the Beyond Booster, which has only 7 cards:

These boosters are not great value. Having the uncommons and commons mixed in with either of those last slots means you get some terrible odds. Here’s a quick breakdown of your foil chances in this pack. 

Rarity/Treatment (# of cards)Percent chance for any card of that categoryPercent chance for a specific card of that category# of BBs to open one specific card from that category
Traditional Foil Uncommon Regular Frame (54)83.34%1.54%64.79
Traditional Foil Rare Regular Frame (26)13.67%0.53%190.20
Traditional Foil Mythic Rare Regular Frame (14)2.99%0.21%468.23
Traditional Foil Rare Borderless (2)2.50%1.25%80.00
Traditional Foil Mythic Rare Borderless (8)0.49%0.06%1632.65
Traditional Foil Rare Memory Corridor (14)1.73%0.12%809.25
Traditional Foil Mythic Rare Memory Corridor (5)0.31%0.06%1612.90

That’s right, for you to get a foil mythic rare in a special treatment, you’re going to need to open roughly 1600 of these Beyond Boosters. That’s pretty close to the drop rate for the OTP textured foils, if you want a comparison point. I’m sure that these are neat to open, but these are also pretty lackluster when it comes to value. 

Collector Boosters are now a staple for Magic, and this one has a lower number of cards than most others.

First of all, the chase-est of cards are the four serialized cards. There’s only 500 of each card, so 2000 total serialized to go after. They are avoiding giving us the exact rarity, as they did with The One Ring, because that data point unlocks a whole lot of additional information for us: number of packs, how many copies of a card exist, things like that. So I’m forced into the realm of guesswork and estimation: Based on what we hear from sellers and distributors, plus the likely print run after Fallout, we’re looking at around 1.5 million packs, which means you’ve got a 0.13% chance of pulling any serialized card. That’ll take you about 769 packs to open for any card, and roughly 3,076 packs for a specific one of the four. 

Let’s start off with the traditional foil slot, which thankfully has only rares and mythics. 

Rarity/Treatment (# of cards)Percent chance for any card of that categoryPercent chance for a specific card of that category# of CBs to open one specific card from that category
Traditional Foil Rare (32)82.05%2.56%39.00
Traditional Foil Mythic Rare (14) 17.95%1.28%77.99

That’s not too bad, it tracks with the drop rate in other Collector Boosters. 

The EA nonfoil slot is pretty easy, since you’re 97% to get a rare and 3% to get the one EA mythic rare. Every 33 packs you should nab that card (Temporal Trespass) and the others will be every 16 packs, making them a much more common drop than the traditional foils.

Now I want to skip to the last slot, the foil-etched, before getting into that ‘everything all at once’ slot before it. Handily, the numbers are exactly the same as the traditional foil slot. 

Rarity/Treatment (# of cards)Percent chance for any card of that categoryPercent chance for a specific card of that category# of CBs to open one specific card from that category
Etched Foil Rare (32)82.05%2.56%39.00
Etched Foil Mythic Rare (14) 17.95%1.28%77.99

Before you start thinking that the etched foils and the traditional foils should have the same price, please keep in mind that traditional foils can be found in the Beyond Boosters, whereas etched is exclusive to the Collector Boosters.

Finally, the big slot with traditional foils, textured foils, and double rainbow, to go with borderless, memory corridor, and extended art versions. 

Rarity/Treatment (# of cards)Percent chance for any card of that categoryPercent chance for a specific card of that category# of CBs to open one specific card from that category
Traditional Foil Borderless Rare (2)4.95%2.48%40.40
Traditional Foil Borderless Mythic Rare (8)9.91%1.24%80.73
Traditional Foil Memory Corridor Rare (14)34.67%2.48%40.38
Traditional Foil Memory Corridor Mythic Rare (5)6.19%1.24%80.78
Traditional Foil Extended-Art Rare (16)39.62%2.48%40.38
Traditional Foil Extended-Art Mythic Rare (1)1.24%1.24%80.65
Textured Foil Memory Corridor Mythic Rare (5)3.25%0.65%153.85
Double Rainbow Foil Serialized Borderless (4)0.13%0.0325%3,076

Now you might be thinking, ‘holy cats, that’s just 80 packs to get some of the rarest cards!’ and compared to other Collector Booster sets, you’d be right. Even the 153 packs for a serialized card is not that rare, compared to the collation shenanigans that Wizards has done to Collector Boosters in the past. (Remember, the textured OTP were 1 in 1500 packs!)

The ‘easier to find’ math has to balance out with the ‘shorter print run’ math, and with Assassin’s Creed being a smaller run, we’re going to see a glut early on, and then other cards get hot. Assassin specs should light up from time to time, especially because these are all Modern legal. 

If you have questions about the math, or my methods, please reach out in the comments, on Twitter, or in the ProTrader Discord!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

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