We’ve gone from this being a Spongebob-only drop to a whole six-pack of extra drops coming along for the ride. Some of these are glorious, others thoroughly mid, and we need to look at the use cases and competition for these cards.
For each drop, I’m pulling the EDHREC data, which does have a caveat about prioritizing the most invested players and there’s a lot of ‘precon plus upgrade’ lists on the site. It’s good data to have, but it is not perfect data.
They Grow Up So Fast
Dragonlord Atarka
EDHREC: 300 as Commander/9k as card
Special Printings: 30th Play Promo Retro Foil ($15)
Dragonlord Ojutai
EDHREC: 1300 as Commander/15k as card
Special Printings: Borderless Foil (30th Countdown) ($9)
Dragonlord Silumgar
EDHREC: 300 as Commander/15k as card
Special Printings: Foil-Etched ($7), Secret Lair Showdown ($14/$265 foil)
Dragonlord Dromoka
EDHREC: 500 as Commander/35k as card
Special Printings: Borderless Foil ($18) and Foil-Etched ($18)
Dragonlord Kolaghan
EDHREC: 100 as Commander/10k as card
Special Printings: Secret Lair Foil ($14)
It’s hard to argue with five solid cards, although the inclusion rates could be higher. As a Dragon enthusiast, I can tell you that it is hard to be one of the 40 best Dragons of all time. You get a choice of arts here, as a 2 for 1, and you get the chance to play a matched set of Dragons too. All it takes for the average value to be $10 and this will end up a positive, and that is entirely dependent on how long they go before printing these again. I’m not confident of that–there’s been special printings within the last two years for most of these, and given the rate of new Dragons, I won’t be in a hurry to get these versions.
That said, I think this is the one most likely to sell out first, and if it goes even before Spongebob sells out (different quantities printed) then the FOMO could have this be a very profitable quick flip. My long-term expectations for these five are quite mediocre, though, and it’s hard to imagine these dragons being more than $15-$20 for the top two or three.
Garden Buds
Ashaya, Soul of the Wild
EDHREC: 2100 as Commander/86k as card
Special Printings: FEA ($18)
Elvish Reclaimer
EDHREC: 43k
Special Printings: MYB2 Future Frame ($4/$120 foil)
Harrow
EDHREC: 237k
Special Printings:40K Surge Foil ($6), Textless MPR nonfoil ($7)
World Shaper
EDHREC: 78k
Special Printings: None
Horn of Greed
EDHREC: 38k decks
Special Printings: None
The art style here is polarizing, since it’s just as much about the font and layout than the actual art. I’ve got to love the numbers here, from solid to staple, and there’s not a lot of fighting over special printings. I have a special place in my heart for all MPR cards, as someone who was able to get a lot of them during the heyday of the program, so I love this Harrow more than I should.
This is my favorite drop of the set from a finance perspective. The cards all have enough demand and there’s almost no other sweet versions competing for eyeballs and dollars. I will be getting a couple of these.
Tragic Romance
Kaalia of the Vast
EDHREC: 23,400 as Commander (#8 in last 2 years), 3900 as card
Special Printings: 2X2 Borderless ($40), MH3 Borderless ($38/$97), MH3 Profile ($13/$19) , MH3 Foil-Etched ($7)
Skithryx, the Blight Dragon
EDHREC:1943 as Commander, 37k as card
Special Printings: MUL Foil-Etched ($15), Halo Foil ($55), Serialized ($450+)
Angel of Despair
EDHREC: 18k decks
Special Printings: Full Art Foil Store Championships ($2.50)
Master of Cruelties
EDHREC: 32k decks
Special Printings: 2X2 Foil Etched ($14), RVR Retro Foil ($3), Serialized ($160)
Kaalia was one of the original legends in Commander 2011, and has maintained her popularity due to the wide variety of decks that can be built around her. The Master of Cruelties combo isn’t as consistent as you might hope, but if you attack with Kaalia, drop the Master, they do need to have a blocker or they are indeed dead. Angel of Despair is an original include with Kaalia too, and good ol’ Skittles is a combo unto himself.
We’ve had a lot of ‘Commander plus staples of that Commander’s deck’ drops and mostly those have languished. Astarion and Karlach are more the exception than the rule, we’ve got examples such as Zaxara, Tovolar, and Animar who have seen their drops stay in their original price ranges, rather than zoom to the moon. Kaalia is a bold choice, one of the most popular yet, but Animar is #25 and that drop can be bought for a mere $30. There is room for this to be expensive, but most of the history indicates that if it does go up, it’ll take a long time to get there.
Twisted Toons
Fatal Push
EDHREC: 22k decks
Special Printings: Secret Lair Showdown ($150), Secret Lair ($20), 2XM Borderless ($25/$16)
Silence
EDHREC: 159k decks
Special Printings: TSR Retro ($12/$86) Secret Lair ($30/$36)
Winds of Abandon
EDHREC: 49k decks
Special Printings: none
Culling the Weak
EDHREC: 105k decks
Special Printings: 2021 JPN Comic Promo ($24), MYB2 White Border ($6 nonfoil)
Young Wolf
EDHREC: 10k decks
Special Printings: INR Borderless (50¢ foil)
Wolf and Push have some decent play numbers outside of Commander, and it’s always nice to pick a card people need several of for Modern, instead of just one for Commander. Winds is a useful Commander card, and this being the first printing outside the regular frame is a nice bonus. I didn’t know Culling the Weak was such a popular card either!
It’s an interesting choice to go cartoony in the same Drop as your big Spongebob release, but that’s where we are. I think this drop has potential, since it’s got a great mix of EDH cards and cards that see Constructed play, but I’m not eager for this drop.
Pick ‘em and Stick ‘em
Thalia, Heretic Cathar
EDHREC: 234 as Commander, 65k as card
Special Printings: 30th countdown Borderless ($5/$9), INR borderless ($1) and Retro (50¢) foils
Clever Impersonator
EDHREC: 64k decks
Special Printings: none
Hedron Crab
EDHREC: 32k decks
Special Printings: none
Pitiless Plunderer
EDHREC: 215k
Special Printings: Fallout Surge Foil ($24), SPG ($16/$24)
It’s always amused me that Hedron Crab is an $8 card because it lets you target yourself, and Ruin Crab is $1 because it’s opponents only. I think the sticker gimmick is exactly that, something that most people won’t bother with, and a potential nightmare for vendors. Having two first-time special cards, with good art, plus the staple of Plunderer, is enough to make this drop acceptable to me, but my expectations are low for the growth pattern. I think it’ll get there, but it’s going to take a longer time than I want.
Secret Lair High: Class of ‘87
Aesi, Tyrant of Gyre Strait
EDHREC: 11241 as Commander, 75k as card
Special Printings: none
Anje Falkenrath
EDHREC: 4843 as Commander, 6700 as card
Special Printings: none
Chulane, Teller of Tales
EDHREC: 7636 as Commander, 31k as card
Special Printings: none
Radha, Heart of Keld
EDHREC: 837 decks as Commander, 16k as card
Special Printings: FEA ($1.50)
We’ve had some unusual frames for cards, but it is an incredible choice to go all the way to the 1987 aesthetic for this. These aren’t super-popular cards, though Aesi is $10 due to Simic being always-busted. Under other circumstances, in the old SL model, this would have been my pick for ‘no one buys it, so it gets expensive.’ However, Wizards’ new model is to leave things on the SL site forever, as we wee with Halloween-theme cards like Chucky and Ghostbusters still freely available after nearly six months. This drop will languish on the site forever, and I want no part of it if I can help it.
They have announced that you’ll get a Deadeye Navigator for every $150 spent, and it’s a combotastic card that should fetch around $10, a fun bonus but nothing to get worked up about like the Seedborn Muse was. Bonus is bonus, though, and I appreciate having a little something extra.
The bundles, if we’re lucky, will be somewhere in the 10% to 15% off range, going by previous drops. I’m not really interested in a mega-bundle of the entre drop, as there’s too many mediocre-to-bad drops for my taste here. This is my ranking:
- Spongebob Legends
- Spongebob Memes
- Spongebob Lands (Somehow in my article last week I missed that you get two of each land!)
- Garden Buds
- They Grow Up So Fast
- Tragic Romance
- Pick ‘em and Stick ‘em
- Twisted Toons
- Class of ‘87
Personally, I might get one all-foil drop and then focus on Spongebob. This summer is going to be an expensive time, with Final Fantasy being something I buy a LOT of, and having extras of these other lairs just doesn’t sing to me. I’m really hoping there is a Spongebob bundle, and then I can get individual Lairs, allowing me to get 10x of the foil memes and legends. I wouldn’t mind 5x of each of the nonfoils, but the legends and memes are the drops I’m maximizing for this Monday.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.