Welcome to the latest installment of Mana Math, where I take a bunch of facts and figures that Wizards dumps on us and I turn it into a simple, understandable answer to the burning question: How hard is it to get the cards we want?

The math is pretty straightforward, but Wizards likes to obfuscate things, because they don’t want us to know specifics. As an example, thanks to The One Ring and the other serialized cards, we know exactly how many Collector Booster packs they printed of both the Holiday Edition and the summer edition. And from there, we know how many copies there are of each mythic, rare, uncommon and common from those packs. 

They don’t like it when we know all of that, so they try to hide a lot of it, but they are required by assorted laws to print your odds for each potential pull. So let’s break down the numbers, and see what we can see. 

To be clear, I’m focused on the Collector Boosters, for two reasons: First, they have never gone back and reprinted Collector Boosters, as far as we know. Closest is the LOTR Holiday Edition, and there’s no sign that they are going to do something like that here.

Our focus will be the last five slots of the Collector Booster. Let’s begin with three of those slots, and if you want Wizards’ breakdown, here is the link. Here’s my table to translate:

For the purposes of these tables, MSRP is $38 per CB, which is $456/box. They are currently selling for more than $750/box, and so I’m rounding the pack cost to $60/pack, or $720/box. I realize prices are fluctuating, and you might be able to get them cheaper, but you can’t get a large amount for a lot less, and the average is easier to comprehend.

Also, for this set, when they refer to Booster Fun, they mean one of the following treatments: Artist Rare, Woodblock Rare, Borderless Character, Borderless Lands, and EA Legendary Cards. 

It’s notable that you have three chances at a specific card with these slots, but they are guaranteeing that a maximum of one will be foil. You might get zero. The chances are a touch conditional, but not enough to make a notable difference when you’re at percentages like these. Keep in mind that you’re only at 8% per slot to get a foil anyway, so only about 32% of Collector Boosters would have even one foil. Further, of that 8%, 5.8% is going to be Traditional Foil EA rares from the Commander set. (Some awesome rares in there, though!) Diabolical!

Then we get to what might be the sweetest slot of all, but also the most swingy. The FCA slot, FINAL FANTASY Through the Ages, has an array of cards, and here’s the breakdown:

Most interesting tidbit here is that the foils and nonfoils will have exactly the same amount in circulation. We’ve always had to guess at how much more a foil is worth compared to a nonfoil without knowing the supply of each. Now it’s a fair race! Stings me a bit to know it’ll take me 500 packs to get the Ancient Copper Dragon in foil, which is the second-rarest thing I could wish to open.

The last slot has all foils, including some Surge foils, and maybe even some Chocobos!

I’m estimating your chances at a colored Chocobo at 0.03% because all the others add up to 99.97% and the serialized is such a tiny percentage that it doesn’t matter. 

Look again, your eyes don’t lie. It will be twice as difficult to pull a FCA foil of one rarity as it will a Surge Foil Borderless (with the number in the background) of that same rarity. The Chocobos might have all the attention, but I will be watching early prices closely to see if people underprice the FCA foils or overprice the Surge Borderless. 

You may have noticed some overlap, and for the sake of being a completionist, here’s a table with your chances for some specific subtypes that show up in more than one slot. It’s not a big bump, but it’s a bump and we’re going for the 100% here.

Finally, let’s talk about the xx/77 Golden Chocobos. We know how many there are, and if we fill in the print run, we can get to percentages and odds. Here’s a table for you:

We think the print run for FIN will be a bit bigger than the LOTR main set, and we’re estimating that the Collector Booster print run is just under 4 million packs. Roughly, it’ll take you 50,000 packs to catch the golden bird, and if you do, there’s enough collectors out there to give you a sweet pack of greens. 

If you have questions or god forbid, I made errors, please reach out to me on social media. The ProTrader Discord is the best choice by far, and we can merrily argue over thousandths of a percent. Good luck in your packs!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Hello again and welcome back, this time we need to talk about the Final Fantasy 7 Commander deck, whose leaders are Cloud, Ex-Soldier and Tifa, Martial Artist. Like the other decks, there’s a very clear strategy, and this time it revolves around creatures, big creatures, and smashing the hell out of the rest of the table. 

I’ve got a list of things that I think will help you build the deck, and which have a very good chance of inclusion. Even better will be the things that spike as a result. (Please see recent spikes based on my article for Yuna and Tidus for examples of money that could be made.)

So let’s talk about the implied relationship that stands head and above every other will-they-or-won’t-they in gaming history, and the cards you want to add to their deck. 

If you want to run Tifa or Cloud as your commander, your plans aren’t too far apart. 

Both of them give you a delightful bonus for attacking and hitting with a creature with 7+ power, and they give you value in different ways. I like Tifa better, but that’s a personal thing, both are good. They both want big, buff creatures, and reward you nicely for doing so. Tifa really wants trample, Cloud really wants equipped creatures to attack. 

Sylvok Battle-Chair/Colossal Dreadmask will be a good card, but this would be a bulk buylist play and that’s not always where you want to be. Both of them do the thing for our power couple nicely, but if you can play something to give all your creatures just one more power, they get a lot better in Tifa’s deck. There’s a lot of free equipping going on (more on that later) and so I want to get a built-in creature to go with it. 

Batterskull (2XM borderless foil $7) – Speaking of living weapon/job select/For Mirrodin! cards, this is another one that does everything you want. Vigilance plus lifelink is a big-time rattlesnake effect, and this version is by far the sweetest. 

Kaldra Compleat (pack foil $13, sketch foil $10) – There is a Spotlight Series for $120+ but I don’t think it’s worth buying as a speculative purchase. Those might go up, as it takes only four purchases to clear out everything under $700, but since I’m not the one who can shift demand that heavily, I prefer the lower-tier cards to go from $10 to $25, as the sketch foils might. This gives every stat you might want, is tough to remove, and is reasonably priced. Getting this onto either commander seems like a good reason to fold up and start a new game.

Hexplate Wallbreaker (reg/EA $5, no foils) – If there’s one thing Commander players love, it’s having a commander that does something, and then picking up all the cards that do the same thing. We love bonuses. The really great thing is that this ability works with Tifa, so after your first attack phase, you’ll get two more attacks. Untapping is not going to happen for each of those, sadly. 

Loxodon Warhammer (SLD foil $10) – Adding three power is the magic number for both of them, and while a classic, you especially want trample on Tifa. Lifelink is great, as is a premium version of one of the best equipment ever. 

O-Naginata (2XM foil 50¢, SOK foil $5) – I wish there was a sweet version of this to go after, but again, adding three power is where both legends are happiest and this time it is as cheap as can be, no need for ways to cheat the equip cost. 

Tenza, Godo’s Maul (bulk) – CHK foils are $25+ and likely not worth the chase, but it’s a fantastic card to have in there, giving all the bonuses you could ask for. Godo has had a premium version printed, but not his favorite method of bashing heads. 

Ace’s Baseball Bat (WHO Surge foil $1) – Same idea, two mana, three power, one to equip. First Strike on attack is a nice bonus, and getting the sweet version for a buck is a real bump too.

Commander’s Plate (SLD Rainbow Foil $32) – I want the Marvel version, as the other SLD foil is $50+ and I think this can get there. Giving either legend protection from blue and black is a fantastic mode, and while you’d like to be immune from Path or Swords, this covers most of your other bases. 

Robe of Stars (reg/EA $16) – Phasing is incredibly underplayed. You want to be able to keep your things safe, and this is a super unfair way to do that. Keep in mind that you won’t have to re-equip this when your creature and equipment all phase back in. Both versions are about the same price, as is common on these Commander set printings that only have regular and EA versions, so buy whichever you like. One won’t get much more expensive than the other.

Sunforger (MM2 and 2XM foils $6) – If you’ve never played with this card, it’s one of the most incredible things you can do. Free equip triggers are extra wonderful with this card, and the blowout potential is huge. For two mana, you get to find lot out there, but there are *really* good spell packages to put together. Some examples: Swords to Plowshares, Teferi’s Protection, Chaos Warp, Great Train Heist (or other Spree cards, you pay extra costs but can go wild), Akroma’s Will, Deflecting Swat, Wear/Tear, and my personal favorite, Reprieve. No one expects that in a Naya Equipment deck!

Caduceus, Staff of Hermes (ACR etched $7) – Is this an unfair card in a format where you start at 40 life? Sure is. Do some video game crossover action and wreck the table. Whenever we’ve had pack foil, EA foil, and etched foil, the etched tends to jump in price first, so that’s the version I’m targeting here. 

Behemoth Sledge (PIP Surge Foil $5) – This doesn’t put Cloud into seven power, but Tifa will get there on the attack. The Surge foil is the sweetest version to be had, and both of them will hit hard and gain you a lot of life in the process. 

Privileged Position (2XM borderless $5) – You need a very good reason to leave this out of any deck with green and white in the identity. It’s unfair, but that’s in the card’s name. Given the art, the age, and the usage, I’m shocked at how cheap this is right now. 

Iroas, God of Victory (SLD foil $34) – Really, this has it all. Seven power when alive, gives two great abilities to your attackers, and there’s even a sweet constellation version to get before it gets too expensive. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

If you’ve been thinking, ‘Golly, I have too much money to spend on Magic’ then I have some news for you! It turns out that the Magic: the Gathering X Final Fantasy Secret Lair drop is coming out on June 9th, and it is a doozy. 

The current Secret Lair drop, the ‘ran-out-of-names’ Ultimate Pencil Superdrop, nothing is even tagged as low stock. I freely admit I skipped this, between my buying up Dragonscale fetches and saving for assorted Final Fantasy goodies. The Final Fantasy drops are not going to have that problem, not one bit. 

Let’s go over the three drops, the two finishes, the two languages, three bundles, and one promo card, and figure out what is worth buying. 

First, let’s talk about the three drops, before we get into finishes and languages. 

For each card, I’m going to list any special versions, the price of those versions, and the EDHREC inclusion. This should give us a good baseline for the card’s value and demand pattern. For this article, I’m referring to ‘premium’ as a borderless frame. Lots of these cards have special art but the normal frame, or maybe a retro frame, or perhaps a special foiling over a normal frame. Those are good, but they aren’t as special.

The price for each lair is the standard $30 nonfoil, $40 rainbow foil that we’ve come to expect under most circumstances.

Secret Lair x FINAL FANTASY: Game Over

We’re off with probably one of the biggest locks in a while. Four of these cards don’t have a premium version yet, and I didn’t know Grasp was so popular. The art on all of these is top-notch, and even if you don’t recognized the scene/villain/game, collectors will.

I would buy this just for the Deluge and the Swarm cards, due to massive Commander demand, and the other cards are just extra dessert. People will be looking for excuses to play Sephiroth’s Meteorfall in decks, and you get other goodies to go with it. I don’t need a lot of words to tell you that I’m really impressed here and I expect this to mature nicely.

Secret Lair x FINAL FANTASY: Grimoire

Speaking of locks, you could offer me just about any drop with five of six cards being in the EDHREC six digits and I’d be interested, sight unseen. This drop carries a small amount of burnout risk, as Prismatic’s SPG slot was MH3, Intervention was part of the Marvel superdrop, Lightning Bolt is everywhere, and this is the third SLD printing for Silence.

I don’t think it matters much in the long term, as these are fantastic cards with iconic characters and for something as universal as Rift, it doesn’t matter what’s on the art.

These spells will be popular, in demand, and you should feel good about buying this set of cards. I sure will.

Secret Lair x FINAL FANTASY: Weapons

This is the weakest of the drops, but there’s some factors that still make me feel pretty good about this drop. Hammer gets sold by the playset, for once, and even with the quantities that are likely for this drop, this Hammer will be in demand. We’ve been getting all sorts of Equipment-centric goodies, and the Forge and Sword fit right in. I have low expectations for the Staff as a card, but as a depiction of Yuna it’s got a lot to like.

The big speculation here is that this is a sign that Jitte is getting unbanned in Modern. Jitte was banned the last time they added it to a Secret Lair, and nothing ever came of that. Speculate away, but I think making this art Jitte just speaks to Cloud doing it all with the Buster sword.

Interestingly, this is only the second time we’ve gotten a Universes Beyond reprint with this Forge Anew, we just got a reprint of Raise the Palisade from LTC in the Morophon Commander deck that is still available on the site. We might see more or less of this, but the name not referring to a specific IP might help. We’ll see. 

Other Bonuses and Bundles

Each of the drops has a regular bonus, but there is also a chance for a rare drop, one of the five pitch Elementals as Summons, and even if there’s already plenty of sweet versions of these cards, them being rare and collectors’ items will keep the prices high. If you get one, congratulations!

There will be a bundle price of $200 for six drops, all three in both foil and nonfoil. That will include a promo Gilded Lotus, and this should be a nicely priced card, considering the art and how there’s no other borderless version. 

Additionally, this drop is available in Japanese as well as English, for the same price. All the cards, even the bonus and the promo Gilded Lotus, will come in Japanese, and the same bundle pricing applies. 

If you’re really feeling it, you can go for the mega-bundle for $400, and get the whole shebang, including a pair of promos. 

The bundle pricing doesn’t save you much. One of each without a bundle is $420, which is a 5% saving. I’d want more of a discount if I could, but I’m not in charge.

I think I’m going to go for a max of English bundles and an additional max of the ENG foil and nonfoil drops. The Japanese is tempting, but I think I would rather wait till the week that all the products arrive, and then buy a giant brick of things like Cyclonic Rift and Heroic Intervention in ENG and JPN foil. I’ve written about the gap in price that happens when you have good cards in more than one language, and I expect this to be a great example. I want some sealed to sock away for a while, but I also want the singles when they are cheap, so I want to spend the money a little more targeted, rather than just blast away at everything. 

If you want to talk about my buying scheme or your own plans, please reach out on social media or the ProTrader Discord!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.