Modern Potential At The Pro Tour

Today, the Pro Tour starts, Edge of Eternities Draft and then Modern Constructed. I love Modern as a format, because it showcases old cards, fun interactions, and people who have favorite decks trying to go the distance. 

The Modern metagame is pretty healthy, considering that there’s no single best deck at the moment (subject to change if a deck rocks the PT) so people all have their preferred plans. It’s a race, maybe there’s interaction and maybe there isn’t, but people have what they like to do and they are good at it. 

So let’s go over the main decks and a little bit of the outliers, with an eye on what’s the best buy if one of the decks looks unstoppable. I’m going over the known decks, if something shows up out of nowhere then I advise you to hang on tight. 

For each of the decks, I’ve identified cards I think are good buys. The already-expensive cards might go to crazy expensive, but mostly I’m looking for things that are a little cheap and a lot of potential.

It’s also worth mentioning that as tournament cards, we have two big differences from most Commander-based specs. First, people buy these in fours, because you need a playset and preferably a matching set at that. Second, tournament players don’t always want the most fancy version. There’s a big chunk of tournament players who like nonfoils, to avoid warping and being called out for marked cards.

Esper Goryo’s 

Atraxa, Grand Unifier – Griselbrand might be the more powerful thing to reanimate, but Atraxa is a lifepoint swing AND a reload of cards in hand. There’s also a very spicy target in the FCA nonfoils and the step-and compleat foils. Both are good and this is one of the many cards that people would want by the playset.

Goryo’s Vengeance – As the namesake card, this does it all, and even comes in a sweet movie poster frame if you’re really feeling frisky. There’s other versions, but this one is both unique and very reasonably priced. 

Psychic Frog – The borderless is pretty pricey, so I’d be looking at the regular nonfoils. This has enough use in Legacy and Exile decks that I feel okay about picking up a couple of playsets. 

Tameshi Belcher 

Lotus Bloom – The only major reprint of this is the Time Spiral remastered one. There’s a retro foil version that’s the only special version, and that’s the one most likely to bump if the deck performs. 

Tameshi, Reality Architect – There’s a neon borderless version that I’d be after, because this is a great combo card in Commander as well. 

MDFC lands – Several of these lands are over $5, and if this deck takes off, then basically all of these lands are on the agenda. They were ‘only’ uncommons but it’s been more than a year and we can already see what Sink into Stupor’s price has done. I wish I could pinpoint better than this, but the 3 life lands seem to be a bit more prevalent here, both rares and nonrares.

Boros Energy

Guide of Souls – This had fallen down some since the recent bans but it’s back up in price. The card is still very very good and should the deck perform, this will go higher, though it’s a rare and not mythic. 

Phelia, Exuberant Shepherd – Phelia is amazing in just about any deck that can flicker its own things for value, but don’t overlook how good it is to just banish a blocker. The synergies are very strong in this deck and Orzhov Blink, so this might see copies go off this weekend. 

Voice of Victory – The regular nonfoils have doubled up since June, and this card has a long time to be good in both Modern and Standard. I can easily visualize matches on camera where interaction is just sitting in hand because of this.

Eldrazi Tron

Ugin, Eye of the Storms – Used to be that you got your seven mana, and then you had to activate Karn to get rid of something. Now you get to 7, you get an exile on cast, and if it resolves, you either get a card back or you add more colorless and cast a second thing, wiping out a second permanent. If Ugin has a good weekend, the sky is the limit.

Kozilek’s Command – I know this has been called out in articles and MTG Fast Finance, but it just gets better and better. No other deck wants this, yet it remains a powerful and flexible card in these decks. 

Sire of Seven Deaths – Foundations gave us a lot of ridiculous cards, but this one will cost your opponent seven life almost no matter what, and some good camera time could end up goosing this price pretty high.

Esper Blink

Ephemerate – I like the new Spider-Man secret lair version of this most, but when you’re maxing value on the first cast and the rebound, people pay attention. 

Emperor of Bones – Resetting the counters on this allows you to bring back cards, and this deck excels at maximizing the triggers involved. Look for some sick sequences on camera. 

Witch Enchanter – Quietly one of the most expensive MDFCs, if it keeps doing well, this could be a huge gainer. 

Other Decks

Pinnacle Emissary – Assorted Affinity decks are going off with this, using the warp cost of a single mana plus cheap artifacts to build some ridiculous turns. A good showing could have this taking off. 

Shifting Woodland – A backup piece in multiple combo decks, plus an incredible utility land in Commander, this has all the signs of breaking out. 

Phlage, Titan of Fire’s Fury – Another Boros card that survived the bans, look for this to do a lot of work this weekend, with likely price gains to match. 

Doorkeeper Thrull – A surprising number of decks have trouble with this card, and sometimes all you need is a turn or two. 

Blade of the Bloodchief – The Broodscale combo can end a game out of nowhere, and since this has had no reprints of note, there’s a lot of room for grown if the combo performs this weekend.

Allosaurus Rider – Neoform decks are trying to cheat this in and then sacrifice it for value, and as one of the core unfair cards, it might have a very profitable weekend. 

Consign to Memory – One of the top sideboard cards across the format, this has been climbing higher and higher since its release. Clearly it needs a reprint, but it hasn’t happened yet.

Wrath of the Skies – a pet card of mine, if you can turn one Tune the Narrative and turn two Wrath of the Skies, you can clean up lots and lots of problems. Matchup-dependent, yes, but very powerful.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Choosing Which Final Fantasy Commander Foils Are Worth The Price

I know all the hype and attention is on the Spider-Man set, especially as it premiers on Arena this week as Through the Omenpaths, but we can’t lose sight of the other things Wizards has put out from Final Fantasy. A little while ago I talked about the best FCA buys, and this week I want to focus on some of the Commander cards, the FIC set.

So let’s get into the cards, where you can get the different shiny versions, and what’s worth buying. 

There’s actually two different shiny versions of these cards that you can get, and it’s important to know both the difference in price and where the cards come from. 

Surge foils come from the Commander decks themselves. These have the regular frame, but the Surge treatment so they are awesomely shiny. However, there are also Extended-Art versions. Collector Boosters can give you one nonfoil EA from the set of 93 cards, but the foils can only be found in the sample packs. 

Additionally, the legendary creatures from those 93 cards can also be pulled in FEA from inserts in the bundles and gift bundles. Let’s not go thinking there’s a lot of them, though. There are 69 very nice legends in the FIC set in extended art, and the inserts contain two of those in foil. So to get one of these legendary creatures in FEA, you’ll need to open roughly 35 bundles or gift bundles.

The Collector Booster Sample Packs aren’t sold as their own product, so Wizards doesn’t have to release the drop rates. We do know that they *only* contain EA cards and also the eight borderless commanders of the four decks. The foil rate for those seems to be pretty low, though, which we can infer from the quantities available on card sites and the relative prices.

With no direct data, we can look at the prices of the different cards. For the eight cards I’m focusing on today, the legends are all more expensive in FEA than in Surge, and vice versa for the regular cards. I suspect that collectors are at work, wanting the FEA versions of legends from our favorite games, but I can’t confirm that at all. 

It also needs to be said that I’m pretty high on the FIC cards long-term, both because they are good and on-theme and because the Final Fantasy cards attract completionist gamers. These won’t see reprints for a long time, if ever. Plus the special versions can only be gotten from expensive Collector Commander decks or these special 2-card packs. We’re at max supply here. 

Aerith, Last Ancient – Surge is $9, FEA is $13 – If you’ve never had the displeasure of playing against a Meren deck, let me assure you, a commander with ‘return a creature from yard to hand’ per turn is pretty damn good. Meren’s ability is better than Aerith’s, but Aerith’s got so much good stuff to build around (ahem, lifelink, etb) that even if she weren’t a top-tier character, she’d have a long-term future. 

Cid, Freeflier Pilot – Surge is $6, FEA is $11 – Really, Cid should be higher on all EDHREC lists, considering that he allows you to replay the equipment and vehicles that get destroyed. And we all know FF7 Cid is the best Cid anyway.

O’aka, Traveling Merchant – Surge is $2, FEA is $5 – Tom Bombadil is currently the default commander if you want to build five-color Sagas, and that deck wants all the ways to remove counters at instant speed. That’s because the way the triggers are worded, you can put the last chapter ability on the stack, and then remove a counter to keep the Saga but get the last effect on the card. It’s a lot of value, and as a bonus, you’ll get to draw a card for getting that value! You’ll demonstrate this once, and then the table will always blast poor old O’aka.

Gogo, Mysterious Mime – Surge is $13, FEA is $20 – I am a big big fan of ways to get extra copies of my commander onto the field, and Gogo is one of the best, since it gains haste as well. So if your Commander has to attack for a sweet effect, but there’s no good attacks, send in the Mime! This is one of the priciest legends on this list, and because of this ability, one of the most fun to break. 

Protection Magic – Surge is $3, FEA is $2 – Now we’re getting into cards where the Collector deck version in Surge foil is the pricier card, and to start, we have a card with both Yuna and Tidus, something fans of FFX love. It also helps that this is a very cheap way to both save your creatures and start the ball rolling with proliferate and counters-moving tomfoolery, so get your copies cheap while you can. 

Summoning Materia – Surge is $2, FEA is $1.50 – While there’s not a lot of call for pure value engines like this, I can’t deny that it’s one of the best. It is certainly a card that demands an answer, given the stream of cards that could be produced off of the top of the library. Normally people just kill the creature and move on, but since you can re-equip, there’s value here. As a comparison point, the FEA version of The Reality Chip is over $12.

Espers to Magicite – Surge is $3, FEA is $1.50 – This is a card I want to put in a lot more decks, because it’s such a unique and incredible effect. Commander players put in a boatload of creatures with activated abilities and static abilities or even just good ETBs, and this allows you to nuke everyone *else’s* graveyard while getting some amount of value for yourself. It’s pretty easy to imagine you getting your four mana back with the token you create.

Yuna’s Decision – Surge is $4, FEA is $2 – I played through FFX as an impressionable younger person, and let me tell you, Yuna and Tidus have a great story to tell. I can’t even *look* at their Farewell without getting misty-eyed. Yuna’s Decision is all about the art and the collectors, though. Cards showing the relationship between the characters, and especially this tender moment in Lake Macalania, sell better than the actual power of the card. This is a pretty weak card, as a Magic game piece. The art, and who/what it shows, makes it worth having in a premium version. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Should You Buy The Spider-Man Secret Lair Drop?

There’s a Secret Lair drop arriving on the 22nd of September, and it features our friendly neighborhood Spider-Man!

As a Marvel character, and one of the biggest, there’s a range of stuff happening with this drop. Let’s go over the cards, the usage, and where the value is currency sitting for this drop.

For each card, I’m listing the EDHREC usage and the value of any premium versions of the card. That’s the most useful comparison, even if the old premium isn’t exactly as cool. Just a reminder about EDHREC: Their data is super helpful but it is by no means the one and only truth. Tons and tons of casual players don’t use the site, and there’s a bias towards preconstructed decks as people do variations on ‘precon with upgrades’ so some of the staples have staggering inclusion rates. 

Secret Lair x Marvel’s Spider-Man: Daily Bugle Breaking News

1x Fact or Fiction ($5 SLD foil, 171k decks)

1x Frantic Search ($21 SLD foil, $1 CMM Borderless Foil, 453k decks)

1x Scheming Symmetry ($16 SLD foil, 61k decks)

1x Blasphemous Act ($31 SLD foil, $5 SLD foil, 1.12 million decks) – 37 printings!

1x Impact Tremors ($16 SLD, $2 WOT foil, 339k decks)

First of all, I both love and loathe this frame. I love big bold card names, and this is so thematic it hurts, but it also looks like it’s got the same issue as the Creepshow SLD: If you make a frame with wrinkles and frayed edges (comic book, newspaper, etc.) then the cards always look like they are LP or worse. Aside from that, this is everything you want in a Lair: high inclusion rates, this looks different than the other premium versions, and the floor of $5 for some of these cards makes the others look pretty good.  

One thing you’re going to notice as a theme: All of these have more than one SLD printing already, and this is the third time around for Blasphemous Act. I picked the Deadpool version on MTG Fast Finance not too long ago, so my stack of those will take a bit longer to mature. That’s the usual pattern for repeat SLDs, and something to keep in mind with all of the new SLD versions. Older ones won’t lose value, but there will be slower growth in the future.

Secret Lair x Marvel’s Spider-Man: Heroic Deeds

1x Ephemerate ($30 JPN STA foil, 181k decks)

1x Three Visits ($42 SLD foil, 770k decks)

1x Lightning Greaves (INV foil $215, SLD foil $37, 2XM foil $19, SLD foil $16, LCC foil $22, SLD foil $6, 1.7 million decks)

1x Sol Ring (too damn many, all of them)

1x Command Tower (too damn many, all of them)

The Ephemerate and the Three Visits are doing a lot of work here. Three Visits especially is an outlier, as it’s the iconic, often-imitated Knights Who Say “Ni!” from the Monty Python SLD. If it wasn’t a collectible from that particular IP, I think it’d be cheaper, but that is the only special version until now.

Greaves, Sol Ring, and Tower have lots and lots of versions. Sol Ring has 111 printings, according to Scryfall, with 30 of those being $10 or more. Command Tower has 97 separate printings listed, but only 15 are $10+. Still, the Ephemerate and Three Visits are going to do the best here, and I’ll definitely be targeting those cards at Dump Week. 

Secret Lair x Marvel’s Spider-Man: Mana Symbiote

2x Plains, 2x Island, 2x Swamp, 2x Mountain, 2x Forest

These lands are reminiscent of the oil-slick lands from All Will Be One, and those range from $5 to $12 for the Swamp. Here, you’re paying $60 and getting ten lands, for a solid entry of $6 each. Supply on this will be constrained, and I expect the red and black ones to be the most popular. These look amazing, and I am hoping to pick up a nice stack during Dump Week but gives the higher price of this drop it’s possible that no one ever prices these cheaply. 

Secret Lair x Marvel’s Spider-Man: Venom Unleashed (Colors)

Secret Lair x Marvel’s Spider-Man: Venom Unleashed (Inks)

1x Damnation (MP2 foil $120, Textless foil $40, SPG foil $40, 240k decks)

1x Dark Ritual (SLD foil $140, MP2 foil $110, STA JPN foil $50, FCA foil $45, 808k decks)

1x Peer into the Abyss (FEA $16, 90k decks)

1x Surgical Extraction (2X2 borderless foil $8, OTP foil $2, 3700 decks)

1x Tendrils of Agony (STA JPN foil $4, 18k decks)

The ink version of a comic page is a true tradition in the collecting of comics, and this is an awesome set of art to showcase the difference. If you’re the type who likes to frame and display cards in a set, then putting these cards next to each other will look phenomenal. Damnation clearly is the big one here, but Dark Ritual is another one I’ll be on the lookout for cheap copies. 

Secret Lair x Marvel’s Spider-Man: Villainous Plots

1x Deadly Dispute (FCA foil $2, SLD foil $4, SLD foil $6, 409k decks)

1x Go for the Throat (PCBB foil $5, 233k decks)

1x Lightning Greaves (INV foil $215, SLD foil $37, 2XM foil $19, SLD foil $16, LCC foil $22, SLD foil $6, 1.7 million decks)

1x Sol Ring (too damn many, all of them)

1x Command Tower (too damn many, all of them)

I’m lower on this drop than I am with the Heroic Deeds version, as Dispute and Throat aren’t very pricey and as I said, these staples will hold a few bucks but are unlikely to become very expensive. Nothing wrong with $5 foils, but I’d be a lot happier if those three $5 foils came with a $15 and a $20 in my $40 set of cards. 

Overall, even with sweet art, this is a drop I’d be likely to avoid on the day of if this were six months ago. There’s nothing mechanically unique, there’s only one card in all of this that hasn’t had a premium printing before. Good, but not great. Thankfully these are all at the $30/$40 price instead of the $40/$50, with the exception of the $60 for 10 lands.

However, we’re in a different era and a very different IP. Spider-Man is one of the most recognized figures on the planet, and the comic collecting crowd is going to be wild for this. The hype is high, and I fully expect the Secret Lair site to be extremely busy, if not outright crashed, as happened with the Marvel release last November.

As such, I think these are all pretty safe buys if you can get in at MSRP. I have a strong preference for the Heroic Deeds set, as I said, but these should all do well. If the site crashes or you can’t stare at the little walking figure all morning, don’t fret. I suspect a lot of these will have very good prices when Dump Week arrives and people flood the market as is the usual pattern.

We haven’t been told about the bonus cards, or special add-ons like a Seedborn Muse or an Arcane Signet, and if there’s extra collectibles around, that just means more value. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

The Mana Math of Magic the Gathering: Marvel’s Spider-Man

Spider-Man will be completely previewed by the end of today, which is two weeks ahead of the prerelease. I have to admit, the schedule feels funky, like Final Fantasy was ended a bit fast and Edge of Eternities has lasted a bit longer than usual, but with so many sets, everything is different from the times that used to be. 

This set has an MSRP of $38 for a Collector Booster, but on TCGPlayer, they are going for at least double that, on an individual or a box price. It’s also a smaller set, in terms of the number of cards, so they have filled the Collector Boosters with a range of treatments and styles, then given us an article with lots of obfuscations. My goal today is to break it all down and tell you have many packs you’d have to open to pull the cards you want. 

Generally speaking, it’s easier to buy the singles you want rather than open packs and hope for those specific cards. Your odds are better in Spider-Man than they were in Final Fantasy for most things because of the smaller set size, and that’s a theme you’ll see in these numbers. I’ve put in the MSRP price of the packs, just because I can easily imagine the prices of these packs varying widely. Right now it’s double, could go up, could go lower.

There’s four slots we care most about in the Collector Boosters, and the first two are nonfoil Booster Fun:

All of these drop rates are within expectations, although the mythic rare scene cards are pretty high at 125 packs to get a single copy. Nonfoils will drain out a lot slower than the foil versions will, though, but tournament players might well go for nonfoils first.

Borderless Source Material Cards: This is very similar to the FCA sheet, although it’s got the MAR set code. Formally known as Source Material, it’s a series of iconic comic book covers done into Magic cards. I have high hopes for this sheet, especially at these drop rates: 

As a point of comparison, in the Final Fantasy sheet, it was 250 packs to get a foil rare from that set and 500 to get a foil mythic. So yes, it’s about 5-10 times easier to get a nonfoil, and 2-3 times easier to get a foil, depending on if the card would be rare or uncommon. They could have put those designations in again, but no, they made it easy on us for the Spider-Man sheet, designating all of the cards as mythic. (If they had done the same in FCA, everything the same rarity, it would have been 128 packs for a specific foil.)

I wanted to take this a step further, since they made these much more common than the Final Fantasy bonus sheet. So I sat down with the mythic drop rates, for foils and nonfoils, and tried to figure out how the drop rates on the MAR sheet compare to an actual in-set mythic rare in a regular frame.

To do this, I had to estimate the relative number of Play Boosters sold vs. the number of Collector Boosters sold. We don’t have exact figures on this but based on assorted industry chatter we’ve decided on a ratio of one Collector Booster sold for every three Play Boosters sold. Expressed as percentages, that means Play Boosters are 75% of the number of total packs sold for Spider-Man. The absence of Commander decks with sample packs for this set eliminates a variable that has been present with other sets.

Again, that’s an estimate, and if we get better info, we’ll update this post accordingly. But with that ratio, and with the drop rates in both types of boosters, I estimate that the ratio of mythics to MAR cards is about 3:2, meaning that for every two copies of a particular MAR card, there’s three copies of a particular in-set mythic.

This ratio is present for foils and nonfoils, which is an interesting surprise.

Now as a reminder, we’re starting from a hype cycle that is already inflated, and so we’ll see some sky-high prices for cards from this sheet, especially as people notice the same visual features as the FCA sheet. My initial expectation here will be to sell early, and wait a couple of weeks to get what you can as people crack boxes and put their stock online. Given the higher prices of boxes, the individual card prices may never come down, but FCA prices have mostly trended downwards and I hope the MAR cards will as well.

Complicating this plan is that these cards, as reskins of some legendary comic book covers, will pull interest from those same comic collectors. Just like we weren’t ready for the Final Fantasy collectors, we might not be ready for the comic folks to come storming into this hobby too. It is entirely possible that the extra collecting pressure on these cards, plus the rising price of boxes, leads to everything only going up.

I don’t think that will happen, but it’s definitely possible. I’d still be on the ‘sell into early hype, then wait’ plan.

The final slot in the Collector Booster will be filled with all sorts of wonderful shiny goodies:

Now note that these categories leave out four types of pulls, and only add up to 98.1%. In the Collecting article, we’re told that all four of these groups of cards are each less than 1%:

7 Textured Foil Costume Change

1 Borderless Gauntlet Soul Stone

2 Mythic Rare Scene Cards

1 Borderless Cosmic Foil Soul Stone

Now we’ve got to get into some assumptions. I’m being as logical as I can from here on out, but these are still guesses. Please feel free to disagree, I can only make my best guesses about the data in the absence of specifics. 

There’s 1.9% left over, and 11 cards. If it’s evenly split, that’s 1 in 579 packs to get any of these eleven particular cards. That’s already a lot harder to get, as each of the other mythics are at most 187 packs. I think we can do better, though, especially knowing that the Soul Stone variants are hyper-premium.

I’m going to presume that the two mythic rare scene cards have a total drop rate of 0.9%, to fit the <1% designation. I’ll do the same for the seven textured foils. That leaves us with 0.1% for all special Soul Stones. Already a 1 in 1,000 drop rate at that point, I went with two possible ratios of Gauntlet to Cosmic. Here’s a table with these presumptions, and the two possible distributions.

In the first pair of lines, the two sets of Soul Stones are in a 3:1 ratio (three Gauntlet foils for every Cosmic foil) and the second is 19:1, leading to some absurd rarities for the most chase versions. I think the first set of numbers is more likely, because it’s in line with what the super-rare drops have been in the past. As examples, the rarest non-serialized drops have been the Lost Legends rares (Roughly 46,700 packs for a specific Legends rare out of DMU), the first set of Surge Foil Realms and Relics (~3,900 packs),and the Jurassic Park Emblem Foils (3,800). We estimated Sothera’s super-rare version to be around two to three thousand packs for a single copy, but it’s impossible for outsiders to know for sure.

I repeat, I do not know what the actual drop rates are for these eleven cards, and these numbers are estimates. If Wizards gives us better data (they likely won’t, alas) then I’ll update this with more precise and attributable numbers.

If you want to discuss the percentages and math from this article, please reach out on social media or the ProTrader Discord. And good luck, if you decide to open some packs!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

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