Today, Marvel Super Heroes gets unlocked in retail centers, and while some product has trickled onto the market before this morning, the stores haven’t officially been allowed to sell product to individuals yet. There’s some out there, but not a lot, not till today, and today will begin a busy time indeed. 

The first weekend of a set can offer some very interesting possibilities, and can be an excellent time for both purchases and selling, so let’s go over the timing of a few things, what has happened before and what might happen shortly.

I’ve said it before that one of the easiest rules to start a path to success in Magic finance is to aggressively trade/sell what you get in a prerelease. This includes the prize packs, promos, anything you get from the new set. The time before the wider release, generally referred to as the ‘presale’ period, is when prices are at their most inflated and supply at its most constrained. 

Let’s look at some examples of what this means. If we look at TCGPlayer, we can check on the price trends over time, with the sales per day and the prices classified by day or a group of days, depending on which view you want of the data. First, let’s look at Germination Practicum. 

The set officially released on April 24, so everything before that is presale. We can see that the first listings in early April sold for more than double their current price, and as more vendors were added, the price dropped down rather quickly. By the time actual release day hit, prices had started a small rebound (a dead cat bounce, if you’ll forgive the animal cruelty of the term) and then fell further, to a low price of just under $7. 

The price recovered to go back over $10, and crept up to $12, and now it’s gotten more stable. I wouldn’t spec on the card yet (see my other posts about six months) but we can see the extremes of very early sales and the flood that happened on opening weekend.

That huge drop, followed by some recovery, is the usual sort of pattern that cards follow on opening weekend. What happens after that is up to the version and the demand. Here’s the graph for foil borderless Tezzeret, Cruel Captain: 

The ideal window here was about five months after it was available, and started trending up because everyone loves artifact decks, especially if you can instantly tutor for something busted/useful. 

This trendline appears even in premium cards, though we don’t yet know when it’ll trend upwards, here’s the graph on Silver Scroll Foil Force of Will.

I imagine it felt pretty great to nab copies around a grand and then watch the card pop up by another hundred or two right away, but it’s trended downwards since then. 

But let’s look at the graph that causes people to buy, a fear graph, a card that started cheap instead of starting expensive. In this case, it’s regular nonfoil Quantum Riddler: 

Currently just a nudge under $30, there was a window early on, actually in the presale time, where this could be bought for $12. It’s hit a high point of just under $50 for the regular nonfoils, and it’ll be Standard-legal until early 2028, so there’s about 18 months left for it to hit big. The key point here is that we want to be aware of the tiny sliver of cards where the presale price is too low, based on playability, amount available, or some other misjudgement by the marketplace. 

To be clear: I almost never buy at presale prices. The inflation is artificial, as greater quantities are going to arrive shortly, and I would rather make money selling all that I can during this period. I can’t deny that there’s one or two cards per set that are initially too low and we should buy them, but since I can’t accurately predict those cards, I’d rather make the guaranteed money by being a seller during such a period. 

So one time to sell is presale, and the other general rule on when to sell is during a hype spike.  There are actually two times you can make sales: In the initial rush, or when people get cards in hand and start building decks. There is a general cycle to this: Card is previewed, leading to some combo being discovered. The initial rush is some combination of vendors, speculators, and people who want to build the deck right away. Prices find a new plateau, and tend to stay there for 3-6 weeks as people get the new card in hand, build decks, and go to town, and as the hype cycle moves on to the next new thing, the card price trends down again very slowly.

An excellent example of this is Crumbling Ashes during the High Priest Morcant hype, which is when the Eventide uncommon with zero reprints went from $5 to almost $50 for the nonfoils, and is currently available for about $32.

The key point I want you to see is that you do not need to be a seller during that near-vertical rise. There was plenty of time at that peak to move whatever copies you had, but it’s important that you not wait too long, else you’ll never realize the profits. 

As for when to buy cards, I have two clear rules here too: First is that you get personal copies whenever you want. If it’s going into a deck, it doesn’t matter if you get the perfect price, as long as you recognize rule two: Cards are 95% to be cheapest at about the six-month mark, barring crazy combo discoveries/previews. If you need a card for a Commander deck, you have my blessing to get it whenever you want. Just don’t be shocked when the $15 card is available for $5 in six months.

So this weekend, with the hype going wild for Marvel cards, you’re going to see a lot of ‘OMG the price fell $20 buybuybuy’ sort of posts and I would advocate caution and calm. There is time, and supply will become very strong this weekend. Look to last week’s article if you want to get a sense of how rare certain cards are, you can compare the drop rates or the cost of buying enough packs to get to the card, statistically. 

I hope this helps you get to a good place in terms of what you’re going to do this weekend, and as ever, if you want to talk about it on the ProTrader Discord or other social media, please don’t hesitate!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Welcome back to the Mana Math series, where I take the avalanche of information Wizards gives us and try to make sense of drop rates and how easy it will be to get certain cards from Collector Boosters. 

Marvel Super Heroes has several art variations, and frustratingly, Source Material cards that use the same set code as the Spider-Man cards. Presumably, this will carry on into the next sets of cards, and if the Marvel experiment goes the full six years, that’s a ton of cards over a wide timeframe all with the same code. Yuck.

Still, there’s numbers to analyze and estimates to make, so let’s dive into some data. 

Most of my information is taken off of the Collecting Marvel Super Heroes article, though with a lot of clicking around. They are required to give us the drop rates in booster packs as percentages, but they don’t take it to the next logical level and tell us the packs. Party because they don’t have to, and partly because saying it’s a percentage makes it feel like we have more of a chance.

Humans are so frequently gamblers, I don’t see why they bother. 

In case you want to check my math: Take the percent chance for that category, divide by the number of potential cards, and then take the inverse of the result. It’s not more complicated than that, though it does unlock a lot of other analysis. I like to include the cost if you’re buying packs at retail as well, just to remind you that if you want singles, buy singles. Don’t open packs looking for a specific card. You’re always going to lose money. 

We’re going to focus on rares and mythics, if you want to talk uncommons, drop me a line on the ProTrader Discord or other social media and I’ll get you what you’re looking for. All of these stats are from the Collector Boosters, where the sweetest cards live.

First, the nonfoils in special frames :

Note this does include the double-sided mythics, which got separated into another slot for some reason.

Also, I don’t understand why this has 4.5% for the Source Material, when there’s a separate slot dedicated to that subset, with a 25%/75% split, that’s every 80 packs for a nonfoil and every 240 for a foil.

It’s also notable that the Mythic Rare Scene Nonfoils are 1/306, while the foils are 1/250. That’s 20% harder to find, but you can be certain that the foils are likely to be more expensive than the nonfoils because that’s how we’re programmed.

Now the traditional foils, in the regular frame:

As you’ll see, moving the five DFCs to a different slot this way bumped the # of packs needed significantly, making the DFC Mythics the hardest things to open from these packs that isn’t a special Mind Stone. 

And finally, Booster Fun Foil: 

These drop rates are pretty reasonable, all things considered. The weirdest thing, as previously mentioned, is how DFC Mythic Panels/Logos are way up above 1/350, and the non-DFC are 1 in 200/222 in Collector Boosters.

Now I realize that you’re looking for the drop rate of the Gauntlet version of The Mind Stone, and the Cosmic version as well. The Cosmic version is limited to around 150 copies, per official statements, so that’s a pretty damn rare drop.

The Gauntlet version is trickier to estimate. However, we can do that in a roundabout way to get a very rough estimate. If the Cosmic Soul Stone is going for around $30,000, and the Gauntlet has an average price of $1500, that’s a nice 20:1 ratio. I understand that’s not a perfect way to gauge how many of each are in circulation, but if you get better data, do let me know.

At 20:1, that means there’s roughly 3,000 Gauntlets out there. Back in the Mana Math of Spider-Man, I estimated 19:1 using a different method, so I don’t think I’m too far off. From here, it’s all about the estimated print run. We know that the first LOTR was a print run of 3.3 million Collector Boosters (they told us the exact % of 1/1 The One Ring dropping) and now that we’re two years later, I’m figuring a nice round 5 million. That’s a 33% increase over the two years, and if that feels high, well, let me know what data you have.

If there are 5 million Collector Booster packs, it’ll take 1,667 packs to open a Gauntlet stone. At 4 million, it’s 1,333 packs. At these drop rates, you could open 2,000 packs, get none or three, and that falls within accepted limits. Just multiply those odds by 20 if you want the estimate for the packs to open a Cosmic Stone. Side note: at 3.3 million, the most conservative estimate of Collector Booster print runs, it would cost $836,000 at retail prices to open enough packs, and again, that’s a should on the packs. No guarantees.

One thing that I’ve been asked about, and want to clarify: If there are more versions, that does affect the total number of a card in circulation, at least from Collector Boosters. Let’s take an example: The Ten Rings vs. King T’Challa.

The Ten Rings has a regular version and Panel version, while King T’Challa has those plus a logo and a scene printing. Those special versions are 1/357 pulls, and if we go back to the 5 million estimate, that’s about 14,000 copies of each version, for a total of 28,000 more special foils in existence. Keep in mind playability matters above all else, but if there’s a ton of special versions out there, that does keep the overall price a bit lower.

As ever, please, don’t open these packs chasing a specific card. These are sealed lottery tickets, and collectibles all their own, but do not ever get one of these and crack it thinking you’ll make all your money back. You’d be better off buying one of everything and just sitting on it than going for the high-variance route of opening the packs. 

Again, if you want to talk about my methods, estimations, or results, please look me up on the ProTrader Discord, or reach out on social media.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

There’s a lot of cool stuff in the set. 

Some of the new cards do new things in a new color, and that can set off a whole set of spikes. Let’s look at what has been previewed so far, and some potential specs. Many of the legends that were previewed early, like Doctor Doom, King of Latveria, I’ve already written about and we’ll see if any of those specs get there. (Come on, Mesmeric Trance!)

I’ve chosen four of the new legends, cards that do a neat thing in a way not really done before. No promises that these are the only legends people want to build around, just my first pass. 

Squirrel Girl is an early favorite, and that’s because there hasn’t been a Commander who collects Squirrels this way. Chatterfang isn’t a Squirrel-based creature, and the BG legends from Bloomburrow never took off. Squirrel Girl goes infinite with a couple of different cards, and those are the first targets.

Earthcraft – The ProTrader Discord picked up on this early, and bought out many of the copies available on TCGPlayer, and it’s a one-card, four-Squirrel, infinite-rodent machine. Earthcraft has long been a combo card, and this is the newest card to make use of it. 

Cryptolith Rite/Enduring Vitality/Springleaf Parade – Green needs some way to give haste plus a way to make tokens tap for mana.

Supportive Parents – It’s a version of Earthcraft, but you need to start with eight Squirrels. This is an uncommon, and there’s a boatload of them on TCGPlayer, so it might be tough to make money on this. 

Chitterspitter – Lots of random cards that are Squirrels or refer to Squirrels will spike. This should be among them.

Nut Collector – There’s a foil borderless Dominaria Remastered version that should especially go up.

Krosan Beast – Magic players love a good joke, and it won’t take many purchases to make this go up, considering the small quantities out there.

Shuri, the Black Panther is an artifact commander based in GW, which doesn’t get a lot of love. That said, this color combo can do more than just destroy artifacts! Please keep in mind that there is still a decklist to be released for this one, and some of these specs might be reprinted.

Merry, Warden of Isengard – This being from the LTC set means it’s already under pressure from The Hobbit set that’s incoming, and it’ll be popular for adding a swarm component to Shuri’s ability.

Argivian Archaeologist – Being on the Reserved List means it’s already pricey, but if Shuri gets popular, a handful of sales will make this take off.

Brilliant Restoration – One thing UR artifact decks don’t have is mass reanimate like this. 

Hanna’s Custody – Or mass protection like this. Much depends on if you want to target your own stuff.

Illustrious Wanderglyph – Already near $20, I strongly think this will be in the deck.

Machinist’s Arsenal – This should avoid a reprint, since it is from Final Fantasy.

Oswald Fiddlebender – I don’t know if there’s restrictions on Wizards reprinting D&D-themed cards, but this is another strong candidate for the deck.

Scourglass – Notably, this will destroy Shuri but leave most of your deck intact.

Thousand-Moon Smithy – A great card in artifact decks!

The Prydwen, Steel Flagship – Just an amazing set of synergies for the deck. More fodder, and fodder that grows when you do the thing you want to do!

MODOK is very good at what he does, which is entering play and immediately going to work as a connive effect. This allows you to do two things: Draw cards and Discard cards. I wonder what we can abuse here…

Maha, Its Feathers Night – A combo indeed, making it so your opponents’ creatures all just die and stay dead and die as soon as they enter play. Indestructible doesn’t mean what it used to!

Sheoldred, the Apocalypse – Already a great commander card, this turbocharges MODOK in a wonderful way. 

Syr Konrad, the Grim – Make those discards count!

Bone Miser – Turn your discards into profit!

Starving Revenant – A great way to put the engine into overdrive!

Cryptcaller Chariot – Since this makes Zombies, you can add a third combo piece and really go to town. 

Feast of Sanity – Slow your life loss and increase someone else’s pain all at once!

Starscream, Power Hungry – This takes some doing, but if you’re the monarch and Starscream is in the proper mode, MODOK becomes a killing machine.

Photon rewards you for having lots of creatures, and casting noncreature spells. Sounds like a recipe for everything that makes token creatures and isn’t a creature! (Warning: in early testing, this deck turned into a calculus problem. Lots of dice and InfiniTokens required.)

Monastery Monk/Young Pyromancer/Prismari Pianist/Anim Pakal – Pakal wants stuff to attack, but the rest of these want you to just cast spells and make more things. Easy enough!

Forth Eorllingas! – There’s no shortage of good X spells for this deck, but this is among the best, giving you a hasty army and likely the monarchy. 

Rise of the Hobgoblins – Another great X spell for the deck, it also can make your stuff a lot less profitable to block.

Warleader’s Call – Purphoros dealing 2 is also a card to think about, but the Call is just climbing up and up.

Champions from Beyond – So many plans in one, this gives you tokens, and bonuses for attacking with the whole mess of them!

Angelic Aberration – A ‘win more’ card, but a great way to upgrade your tokens from 1/1 on the ground to 4/4 in the air.

Divine Visitation – Or you could skip the middle step!

Wildfire Awakener – One of my favorite ‘win more’ cards ever, this turns your batch of tokens into twice that many tokens, which tap for damage!

This list is by no means exhaustive, and there are likely to be other legends that pop off and form a whole new alliance. When they go off, keep track of everything via our ProTrader Discord, and the profits will follow.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.