With seven sets coming in 2026, there’s going to be a lot of times I say these words: It’s time to do some math!
That’s right, Lorwyn Eclipsed is about to be released, and we need to do some arithmetic in order to figure out how likely it is that Collector Boosters will contain what we want.
So strap on a calculator, kids, and let’s get into it!
In running these numbers, I’m just using Wizards’ released information about the makeup of Collector Booster packs. The focus is on those CBs, because that’s where the best stuff will be. There’s a tiny chance of these showing up in Play Boosters, but generally, don’t waste your time with those if you like to crack packs.
First off, let’s talk about nonfoil cards.
It’s not every set where Wizards puts two nonfoils in the CBs this way, but when they do, it leads to a LOT of nonfoils entering the market. Especially the rares of each type, you’re at just over 83% of these slots having rares. Definitely could lead to some bricks being bought down the line, depending on the cards.
Even with the double-up on the slot, you’re still looking at ten boxes of CBs to get that one fetchland in particular. Pretty tough pull, as nonfoils go.I’d look for these to be a little bit pricier than expected.
The foil slot, as always, has the best stuff:
The official MSRP of a CB pack is $27, so that’s what I’m using for my estimates.
In case you missed the bit in the article about collecting this set, we’re done getting Japanese-language Fracture Foils in English-language CBs. Those will only be found in the Japanese-language CBs. This is phrased as a permanent change, but we’ll see if that holds.
As for the cards in this slot, we’re not seeing anything too wildly rare. Everything can be had in under 200 packs, which is pretty good for this sort of thing. If you’re expecting the mega-rares of the recent Universes Beyond sets, well, this won’t be as difficult.
With the shift in Fracture Foils, now we’ve got an interesting case. We know precisely what the ratio is of regular foil to Fracture Foil, it’s 9:1 and that means the expectation is that if a Fracture Foil costs $100, then the regular foil should be $11. To put another way, according to the math, nine regular foils should add up to the price of one Fracture Foil.
The problem here is that we don’t know what the demand will look like, and if the Fracture Foil collectors was to go ham, they will, and throw the ratio all out of whack. As an example, let’s look at the Japan Showcase of Bloodthirsty Conqueror. The regular foil is right at $100, and the Fracture Foil is just about three times that much. (both of those are in English, for the record.)
Blessed few of the Fracture Foils currently have a ratio near 9:1, but that’s with the JPN versions getting opened. We’ll have to keep an eye on where the prices end up.
The Special Guests part of this is about in line with other sets too. Specific cards are usually between 150-200 packs, and that’s what we’ve got here. There will be some excellent targets among the foils, I think, but the truly interesting case will be the nonfoils. Those are only found in the Play Boosters, and you’re 1 in 55 to get a SPG card. Since there’s 20 options, that means it’ll take 1,100 Play Boosters to get one particular nonfoil.
Using Wizards’ MSRP, we can see that the cost in Play Boosters will be just over six grand, and that’s roughly $900 more than it’ll cost to open a foil version. It’s rare enough for the foils and nonfoils to be close in price, much less have the nonfoil as costing more. I’ll be watching to see if there’s deals to be had early, but this is another case where collectors might end up pushing the price to illogical levels.
The final point that jumps out at me is that 62.8% of the CBs opened will have a Rare FEA, a Foil Rare Fable Frame, or a Foil Rare Borderless card. They have a vested interest in keeping mythics at a lower drop rate, but if you add in the 10% of SPGs, now you’re talking about only 1 in 4 Collector Boosters having a foil mythic, and that’s a bit of a change from previous sets. It remains to be seen if that’ll damage the finances of those mythics, but really, it’ll be all about Commander demand.
Last but not least, let’s talk about the Double Rainbow Foil Serialized Bitterblossom Bearer. I’ve made a table to show some of the likely drop rates, and how they contribute revenue for Wizards.
($250 is our estimated distributor buy price, or what Wizards makes when they sell the boxes to a distributor)
For a little context, Lord of the Rings Holiday edition was at 1.5 million packs, and the main summer set was 3.3 million. We’re estimating this is closer to Edge of Eternities’ print run, which was probably in the realm of 2 to 2.5 million packs. So I’m giving the estimate of about 1 in 5,000 Collector Boosters to snag a serialized card.
I want to repeat, this is an estimate. If you get me some solid data on how many Collector Boosters Wizards makes for a set, I’d love to have that piece of information.
I hope these charts are helpful as you decide what to buy and what to open. If you have questions or concerns, I’m happy to talk about the specifics on social media or in the ProTrader Discord. Good luck with your packs!
Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
