The Mana Math for Secrets of Strixhaven

Welcome back to another edition of Mana Math! The Secrets of Strixhaven have been revealed, and the Mystical Archive opened once again! This time, instead of etched foils that look disgustingly similar to the regular foils and have the same collector number (hurts my soul just to type that) we’ve got a return of one of my favorite foil treatments: The Silver Scroll.

Let’s get into the odds, the chances. Wizards is legally required to give a certain amount of information about your chances with booster packs, and they meet that standard by spreading the information way out. All I want to do is put it into a couple graphs, and answer the question: How many Collector Boosters do you need to open to get the card you want?

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Building the Other Elder Dragons of Secrets of Strixhaven

We’ve gotten a lot of the set spoiled, including the five big Dragons, and these Elder Dragons are all focused on instants and sorceries, doing different amazing things along the way.

Last week was Witherbloom, and the other four are today, with the greatest hits and things worth thinking about speculating on.

First of all, since all of these Dragons need to get on the field and stay there, we might see a bump in the generically good cards for this: Mithril Coat, Lightning Greaves, any protection spell in the right colors. It’s more mana, and you might need to wait to get it into play, but when you need your Commander, that’s how it is.

Let’s lead off with what I think is the most unique, Lorehold:

This is the most self-contained, as it both gives your spells the Miracle ability and gives you a draw trigger on each of your opponents’ turns. It’s also reasonably costed at five mana, so you might well wait till seven mana and get the first miracle trigger. With Lorehold, you want big, splashy spells that you’re reducing all the way to a mere two mana.

Scroll Rack – One of the best ways to make sure you miracle, and lacking the constant Sensei’s Divining Top checks. 

Rise of the Eldrazi – Want get bonkers? Let’s do it. We’d never pay 12 mana, but we’re all for paying two mana.

Storm Herd – Ten mana is a boatload, but it’s pretty nice to get 20+ tokens!

Call Forth the Tempest – What I love about this is that you’re going to get two more spells AND an unfair wrath effect, a theme of many of the cards I’m highlighting today.

Invincible Hymn – Lifegain by itself isn’t great, but you should get to 70-80 life with this, and that’s pretty fun.

Approach of the Second Sun – Win the game, baby!

Mass Calcify – Uneven wraths are glorious, and while this may spare some things, it’ll take care of most problems.

Volcanic Vision – If you did it once, you’ll love to do the thing again, and with the bonus of an uneven wrath effect!

Everything with cascade will be popular with Quandrix. Might not be all the way up to Apex Devastator, but that’s always super fun. Got to be careful when using cascade with X spells, but Doppelgang is worth the risk among those. 

Imoti, Celebrant of Bounty – While Quandrix requires spells from your hand, this is just all the free stuff if you start high enough.

Rishkar’s Expertise – Giving this cascade is such value that it ought to be illegal. If you happen to end up with a bigger creature after all the cascading, all the better!

Cost-reduced cards (mostly uncommon and bulk) – I like Into the Story most, but there’s a wide range of spells that cost a few mana less but cascade at the greater value. None of them are expensive, but in this deck, they will all be quite strong. 

You want instants and sorceries, you want creatures. Smells like token generation to me! The other thing you want, if you’re casting a spell twice, is a set of spells that get half the life, rounded up. Rounded down gets them to 25%, but rounded up gets them dead.

Devout Invocation – The definition of ‘win more’ as you need a few cheap creatures around worth tapping, this will take you from 5 creatures to 13 all at once. You can’t both tap for the effect and sacrifice for Casualty, but you can tap the first set of Angels to make the second set.

Perch Protection – It’s a way to protect your board, give yourself eight Birds, and put your opponents on two extra turns of beating the snot out of each other.

Army of the Damned – Yes, you can copy the spell if you flash it back. 

Token Doublers like Anointed Procession, Mondrak, etc. should go up too, and there’s a lot of great choices here. Ojer Taq is also top-tier for stuff like this. 

Vona’s Hunger – As previously mentioned, I do love some uneven board wipes, and this will do the job for three mana and one creature. 

Blood Tribute and Peer into the Abyss – A lot of mana, but how much would you pay to end the game?

Rush of Dread – What’s really great here is that one player dies, one loses their board, and one loses their hand if you have the mana to make all three happen. 

Revival // Revenge – You get to 4x your life while killing someone else. You’re already the archenemy, might as well lean into it. 

No shortage of good spells to storm, but mana is premium. We can add mana, or we can storm spells that untap lands! Ral, Storm Conduit should be high on the list of cards to include, but keep in mind that copying a spell with storm doesn’t get you a storm trigger. 

Seething Song, Rite of Flame, Pyretic Ritual, Desperate Ritual – SL versions of all these cards exist and might spike. 

High Tide – As any Legacy player will tell you, yes, these stack. 

Jeska’s Will – Always been a good card, now a terrifyingly disgusting one. 

Path of the Pyromancer – Doing this with Storm means lots of mana but also a lot of discarding. Best done till you hit the Past in Flames in your deck. 

Inner Fire and Mana Geyser – Just a great way to be an intermediate Storm card. Fuels everything you want if it’s copied even once. 

Snap – Ruby Storm players can tell you how good life is with cost reductions, but Snap is either free to be the first spell you cast, costing a net of zero mana, or get you ahead on mana if your count is higher. 

Frantic Search – Find a combo piece and get way ahead on mana! What’s not to love?

Turnabout – Remember that if this is copies, you have a chance to re-tap everything for mana, netting you all the mana you’ll ever need. 

Intellectual Offering – Cast with caution, but you can target the same players over and over, while you get a reset on your mana rocks and tons of cards. 

Solve the Equation – SLD versions are clearly the play here, it’s just a question of which art/style you like more. Copying this is glorious, whereas something like Mystical Tutor to the top of the deck and then shuffle is no good in multiples. 

Extra Turns spells – Something everyone loves to do, and if you get +2 turns, I feel the table should just concede on the spot. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Building And Speculating on Witherbloom, the Balancer

Witherbloom, the Balancer was revealed at PAX East on Thursday, and the obvious combo has already caused a big spike in Sprout Swarm.

Maybe you can find some in binders or leftover stores, but this has always been a card that didn’t need much help to be infinite. 

Witherbloom as a Commander opens up some interesting avenues, and might unlock a lot of value. I love when a Commander does something new like this, so let’s go over some potential includes in a Witherbloom deck, for you to get as personal copies or maybe a stack as a spec. 

Some of these were discussed in the ProTrader Discord, so thank you to the hive mind, and let me remind you, if you’re not on there already, you’re missing out on some big value-adds. 

Let’s talk about the things the deck wants!

Mana Dorks – Lets you get Witherbloom out sooner and gives you creatures to have affinity with! This is where the deck should start, and while there’s no shortage of amazing ways to accelerate into the seven-drop, we prefer creature-based strategies in this particular deck. 

Enduring Vitality – I’d go with the baby deer in the Showcase, without going all the way to the fracture foil. 

Citanul Hierophants – A card that has been around a long time, turning everything into a mana dork has come a long way.

Jaheira, Friend of the Forest – I’m a huge fan of this card, and fully expect her to get a very good Secret Lair version sometime soon. If you’re going to make tokens (see below) then why not power them up?

Fanatic of Rhonas – Two mana to make four is a great deal! More of us should be playing this card.  Don’t forget that if you Eternalize it, it taps for four.

Llanowar Tribe – The creature version of Basalt Monolith, minus the inherent tapping and the potential combos. 

X Spells – You want to make good use of mana reduction, and X spells are high on that list. Anything that makes X tokens is going to be good, but let’s go over some big-time spells that will make the table sit up and be super jealous.

Awaken the Woods – this might be the most versatile spell in your deck, being good at ramping you and being good when you’re ramped and ready. Only special version so far is the FEA.

Dregs of Sorrow – A pet card of mine, it’s pretty amazing what a little reduction in cost can do for this card, making it a board wipe and a hand refill at the same time. I don’t promise it’s good all the time, but you get this off once and you’ll never take it out of the deck. 

Exsanguinate – The classic, the undefeated, the starting point for ‘How am I going to win this game?’ and there’s even a sweet foil in the $6 range that I ought to go buy a few copies of. 

Finale of Devastation & Finale of Sorrow – Yes, these work the way you want them to. Choose X=10 (or more, party on) and then apply your cost reductions, followed by you paying the leftover mana and your opponents groaning in disbelief at your amazingness. Devastation got a reprint in Commander Masters but that was 2023!

Gelatinous Genesis – A favorite of mine in my Zaxara deck, I love making lots of big tokens all at once. Big reductions in cost mean many many big creatures.

Torment of Hailfire – Another classic of the genre, we’ve even got a couple of pretty choices for the card, depending on how you feel about Comic Sans as a font. 

Valgavoth’s Onslaught – In case you forgot how good this is after dying to it a bunch in Duskmourn limited games, this is really good at just about anything over X = 3.

Pest Infestation – You are never short of targets at the average Commander game, and this is going to give you more token creatures for the spell after this!

Big Swingy Spells – You’ve got a handful of creatures, your Commander in play, now it’s time for some big silly spells that cost you a whole lot less. 

Death Mutation – The best Commander for this card that there ever was. I adore the idea of casting this for 3-4 mana, getting a stack more creatures, then firing off a big X spell. 

Crush of Wurms – Yes, the cost reductions will get the flashback too. What’s not to love?

Army of the Damned – Similar to Crush, where the first one makes the second happen almost immediately if you needed it to. Everyone loves 26 Zombies!

In Garruk’s Wake – With enough mana, you can be pretty one-sided. Time to take advantage. 

Plague Wind – Amazingly, this pair doesn’t see much play, but when you cast it for a lot less than nine mana, you’ll create a warm fuzzy feeling for yourself that no one else at the table will share. 

Overwhelming Forces – Pretty rough that you have to pick an opponent for this, but then you draw a few cards. Or a lot, depending. 

Rise of the Dark Realms – Another card I can never play often enough, with the right opponents, this might just end the game, especially if someone got a Terror of the Peaks killed at some point. 

Worst Fears – I can see why this needs to be exiled after casting, but still, this leads to some wonderfully broken interactions. Use with glee!

Dump Week for the Roll For Initiative Superdrop is coming!

We’re all finally getting shipping notifications on the Roll for Initiative Superdrop, and it’s been odd, seeing other drops arrive in a different pattern. Many people will get the D&D drops in hand after both the Fallout drop and the Dandan decks arrive. So as the Initiative drops arrive, we need to be ready for the lovely phenomenon of Dump Week.

Dump Week is a weird thing: There is a group of people who are connected enough to get a Secret Lair drop, even ones that sell out, but they are motivated to sell the cards immediately, as soon as things are in hand. I like to think that they wanted one specific card, and are dumping the rest, but if they waited even two weeks they’d almost always get more money for their sales than selling immediately. I would hate to think they were buying Lairs on credit cards or other debt spending.

For whatever reason, Dump Week is a thing, and we can plan for it. Let’s go over my favorite cards and some price predictions.

For each card, I’ve listed their EDHREC number, as well as the prices for other special versions of the card (if any). I will also be predicting how cheap it’ll get in Dump Week, but please remember that the lowest price is often measured in hours, maybe a whole day. Dump Week doesn’t mean it stays cheap for a week. 

Bloodletter of Aclazotz (138k decks, Borderless foil $35)

The Bloodletter has gone up and down in its life, but the key feature here is that it’s the only card of value from the Lair. This often means the undercutting is severe indeed, and the most desperate resellers will definitely get into the $25 range. It might have one or two copies go as low as $20 before it rebounds up.

Klauth, Unrivaled Ancient (2k as Commander, 55k as card, EA $30)

Klauth is an interesting case. I am a fervent player for the leather-winged demons of the skies known as Dragons, and I can tell you, Klauth gives some big big turns indeed. This was a featured card in the Commander decks of AFR back in 2021, and hasn’t been reprinted except for a tiny few copies via The List. As such, the price will start high but drop quickly to the range of $15, or maybe even $10. Understandably, I am a buyer at such a price. I expect this to settle above $20 pretty quickly.

Miirym, Sentinel Wyrm (25k as Commander, #18 over last 2 years, plus 65k as card, Showcase foil $7)

Miirym, though, no one needs to be told that this is a ridiculous card. There are three valid choices to be the Commander for your Dragon deck: The Ur-Dragon (all hail, he cheats at Magic), Tiamat (tutoring in the command zone is busted as hell) and Miirym, who was too good to be put in the Temur Dragonstorm deck last year. Miirym has a special version, but it’s the Monster Manual sort of art, which you either adore or abhor, there’s no middle ground. Clearly this Drop has the best version, but copies will be under $10, possibly $5, before going back up between $10 and $15.

Grim Hireling (137k decks, EA $20)

Never available in foil, since this was only in the two Commander products and The List, this could do some interesting things. Prosper was a very popular commander when introduced, but isn’t in the top 100 for the last two years. Treasure decks, though, get better and better and better. I expect this to go down to $15, maybe even $10, but bounce back up pretty fast.

Xorn (135k decks, Ampersand foil $30, SLD $14)

I’ve already made some money on the other SLD version of Xorn, which was available at half its current price at one point. With a second printing, I am prepared for this to get as low as $5 when Dump Week hits, and settle out around $8-$10.

Displacer Kitten (199k decks, FEA $33)

Most cards do not take off immediately, but there’s been a few that dropped on release and just started climbing. I think the Kitten will be one of those cards, because it’s part of two trillion combos, it’s already in a boatload of decks, and this is easily the best version ever. My expectation is that it starts at $25-$30 and just climbs to $50 within a week or two. After that, the sky is the limit. 

Victimize (491k decks, SPG foil $45)

Another card with a really wide appeal (some of that EDHREC number is boosted by the number of precons it’s been in) this is still a pricey card. The SPG version gives us a ceiling, and I’m thinking that the new D&D version gets down to $8 before coming back up some. It also helps that there are other, more expensive cards in the Drop, so people will be willing to sell this card for that much cheaper. 

Ancient Bronze Dragon (49k decks, Borderless foil $35) 

Unquestionably the worst member of this cycle, it’s interesting to see the green card mixed in with a black Commander. As the headliner for this Drop, at least in terms of value, I don’t think it’ll drop too much but it also can’t rise too high. I think the cheapest this will get will be around $15-$20 and even though I’m a Dragon devotee, I’d have a hard time buying in on this one once it’s $25 or higher. At that price, all copies, both this one and the previous versions, would need to increase to $45 or higher to be worth it.

Black Market (166k decks, SLD foil $16)

The other Secret Lair foil is more of the movie poster look, something that feels more out there. I don’t think this version will match it for some time, but because there are other expensive cards in this Drop, this has a chance to get very cheap. I’m watching it for it to get to the $5 range, and then creep back up to $10.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

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