Final Fantasy is out this weekend, and that’s the start of a wild time in Magic finance. We’ve never seen prices like this for the premium products, on top of the markup Wizards was already frontloading in. 

Given the influence of outside collectors, I don’t feel great about recommending cards right now. If you want some of the really chase stuff, I still think you should wait a week or two before moving in. 

What I do want to talk about is a phenomenon I’ve noticed when it comes to Secret Lairs. I’ve been looking over some recent lairs that sold out and didn’t, and there’s a trend that may or may not change how I approach my budget for such Lairs. 

Come with me and explore the idea of Dump Week.

The core idea here is that when a drop sells out, there is a large group of people who want to get their profit margin out as fast as possible, so they can re-invest in the next drop or whatever else they are going to do. Sometimes, they are selling the sealed drop for something like $45 or $50, but that’s barely enough to cover the taxes, fees, and shipping. 

The singles, however, represent a very different opportunity. Let’s start with a relatively recent example: Counterspell from the Spongebob Internet Sensation drop.

Like most cards that are released, the initial pre-order prices are crazy high, and then as the number of copies in circulation grows, people (both vendors and individuals) get their cards in hand and sell the extras. Which is good, as it looks like people were getting about $13 per foil copy. Within a month, that was up to $20 a copy, and it’s crept upwards a bit more since then, into the $23-$25 range. 

This is one data point, but it’s got me thinking: If I know which lairs sold out, that means I can know when Dump Week is going to be. And if I know that, I should be able to get in very cheap on the most desired singles. 

And as an add-on to that hypothesis, that I might be able to explore in the future: Should I focus the money I was spending on sealed Lairs on the most in-demand singles during Dump Week instead? For a lot of Lairs, the value is clearly there if I can get them at cost, but even if I miss out on a Lair, can I make good money on singles too?

Before I can have an answer, though, we need to do some research on other examples. I’m going to work chronologically backwards, looking at the Lairs that sold out (mostly) to see where we are at on this idea.

One of the cards that got me thinking on this path is the raised foil Underworld Breach, from the Vroooooom! Lair that didn’t, and still hasn’t, sold out. I put the Breach as a card to watch this week on MTG Fast Finance, because even though it’s banned basically everywhere, it’s a low-supply $40 card that will cost $100 to get the Lair which contains it. Seems like a decent formula for a card to be a hold for about a year till it hits $75. 

The graph hasn’t started to rise yet, but there’s other factors to consider. It’s a new price point and foiling type, it hasn’t sold out, and there isn’t a lot of demand for it. I don’t think it’s a good indicator of the factors I want to look at, but it’s a data point I want to be aware of, in case my supposition is wrong. 

Another card I’ve picked recently is Deadpool’s Deadly Rollick:

This stings a little, because I picked it at $17 and it’s gone to $15 since. I still believe in the card, though. We can see Dump Week happening right away, as the price falls like a rock, then starts to rebound, and then it careens up and down some. If this wasn’t quite so recent, then we may have had a chance to see a smoother overall graph. 

Gary the Snail as Toxrill is exactly what I’m looking for here. Immediate dive, recovered quickly, has trended down a little since that big recovery but still on point for the pattern I’d like to find. This is all from people upgrading their current Commander to the cartoon art, though, and that’s not a huge growth market. 

Swan Song in Rainbow Foil, though, is a fantastic example of what I want to find. Dumped hard the first week down to $24 or so, and up about $10 in the four months since, with no sign of slowing down. This was a Lair that didn’t sell out immediately in English foil, too, but the quantity dumped that first week was great enough to push the price down nicely. If I can pick out the cards most likely to drop and then recover, this should work out very profitably.

Flawless Maneuver is the right set of conditions, but the graph isn’t as, well, flawless. The first week, it took a dive, but fell a bit further still. I can’t believe I didn’t ever pick this card when it was a $7 foil. Still, it demonstrates the concept that even if I missed out on the Marvel drop, as lots of people did, I could have made great money by picking up $7 foils. 

Not every Marvel card has this growth pattern, but we’re not expecting that. We’re looking for the ones that got really cheap as the market got flooded, and then they rebounded. This is going to happen faster with staples, and slower for cards with lesser adoption rates. Another great example, Wolverine’s version of The Ozolith: 

It went straight down to $25 the first week as people sought to list theirs and sell immediately, but it’s been pure growth since then. Not all the cards have shown this pattern, or this amount of growth, but I think the concept is sound.

So with that in mind, let’s look at a couple of examples in the Summer Superdrop that have sold out, and as a result, there’s one big wave of inventory to land. We’re looking for staples, preferably without special versions, and we’re looking to get in cheap. We don’t know how cheap these will be, as they haven’t all arrived yet. I think there’s a couple of cards that meet the criteria, but only time will tell if I’m right.

Since these are all from the summer superdrop, they don’t have a big chunk put online yet, but they should in the next couple of weeks. My price predictions are pure speculation, so while I’m planning on buying these cheap, I’m fully willing to admit that the actual buy price might be quite different.

I think that as the most popular card in this drop, and a gorgeous piece of art in its own right, this version of Zulaport should get there. It helps that there’s another SL version already, but that’s from 2020, a different era of Secret Lair. Hopefully this gets below $10 in foil, we’ll see.

The cheapest nonfoils of Rift in RVR were about $37 last year, and they are pushing $45 now. The original copies can be had at NM for under $35, indicating people like the new art. The Final Fantasy version should be one that people are looking to dump quickly and extract fast profit, so I’m hoping for nonfoils to go near $25 and foils for $40. If these don’t get cheap, I’ll have to evaluate again.

Toxic Deluge gets a lot of play, and there’s already a borderless foil going for $32. It doesn’t have the hype that Final Fantasy has, and while this doesn’t have a super popular character on the art (Kefka is an iconic villain, that 8-bit laugh haunted my dreams) I am counting on the number of people who play the card to help this recover and get expensive. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

On Monday, we’re getting the Summer Superdrop for 2025, and it’s got six groups of cards. Three of those drops are Final Fantasy cards, and I covered all of those just a couple weeks ago. 

We need to go over the other drops hitting on June 9, as well as an additional drop coming on June 16. This feels like a lot of Secret Lair because it is, and while I didn’t buy any of the Pencil Superdrop, I’m already planning on a big spend for Final Fantasy, and adding to that with some of these other drops too.

So let’s look at what’s in here, what it compares to, and why the additional drop is really worth watching. 

For these drops, I want to look at the EDHREC data and the other premium offerings, to get a sense of what’s already there and how much demand is present. As ever, EDHREC is a useful dataset but it isn’t the only one. An enormous number of people don’t post their lists to the site, and so we can’t look at this data and think that’s the whole story. It’s helpful, but it’s not something all-knowing.

Artist Series: Phil Foglio

Card	Current EDHREC #	Other Premium Versions
Goblin Bombardment	185,000 decks	Monty Python SLD ($16 nonfoil, $17 foil) Enchanting Tales ($3/$5)
Orcish Lumberjack	24,000	None, no foil ever.
Constant Mists	40,000	None, no foil ever
Song of the Dryads	63,000	Etched Foil $8

On the one hand, we’re really mining the reprint equity here. Aside from the Bombardment, these are four cards that have never gotten a premium treatment, and in two cases, barely any reprints at all. On the other, these are regular-frame cards from an iconic artist. I’ve ranted before about how much I want for artist series drops to be able to really showcase the art, and Foglio’s art isn’t given that chance to really shine.

What really stings is that this drop comes along in the same release as two other artists who can use the whole card frame, and this is also coming out at the same time as the Final Fantasy Through the Ages subset, which has no frame at all, just floating text. This happened recently with Jesper Ejsing too, and these artists deserve better. Break the frame!

As for the value, Lumberjack is not really a relevant card for almost all decks, Bombardment has multiple cooler versions, and Constant Mists is a card that will have a table itching for your blood. Song of the Dryads is a worthwhile way to shut down a commander, but really, this is a very middling lair and if you really want something from it, the singles should be your target in about two weeks.

Featuring: Imiri Sakabashira

Card	Current EDHREC #	Other Premium Versions
Consecrated Sphinx	142,000 (Game Changer)	Etched Foil $44 Invocation $200 Borderless Foil $45 SLD Rainbow Foil $42
Resculpt	135,000	None
Mirage Mirror	90,000	None
Scion of Draco	30,000	Borderless Foil $20 Retro Frame Foil $6

This is an awesomely abstract drop, with cards worth the interest. I had no idea Resculpt was so popular in decks, but cheap, flexible removal comes at a cost. Mirage Mirror surprised me too, and this is a fun way to add another premium Scion of Draco out there. (I’m getting close to taking it out of my Ur-Dragon deck, I must admit.)

And as much as I like this art, I have to say that the singles are likely your best bet here too. Consecrated Sphinx’s Brain Dead version is over $40 now, but when the drop first got into peoples’ hands, it was available under $15. I like these cards, and am likely to spec on them, but I don’t feel a burning need to buy this as a sealed set. 

The Art of Frank Frazetta: The Second Exhibition

Card	Current EDHREC #	Other Premium Versions
Deadly Dispute	350,000	WPN Retro Frame $1 FIC ??
Murderous Rider	69,000	Showcase Foil $1.50
Zulaport Cutthroat	284,000	TSR Retro Foil $47 2020 SLD Foil $27
Aggravated Assault	111,000	Confetti WOT $67 Invocation $45 40K SLD Foil $25
Desperate Ritual	70,000	None, pack foils $10-$15

First of all, my apologies to the artist, whose name I have repeatedly misstated as Franzetta instead of the proper Frazetta.

This is a fantastic drop on all counts. We know from the last Frazetta drop that the art is popular, and the borderless look with this art is just amazing. There’s also no duds in this set of cards, because while I don’t think that many people play Desperate Ritual in Commander, we’ve got plenty of folks who play four copies in Storm-style decks and that will soak up a lot of demand.

The Rider deserves lots of play, and Dispute/Cutthroat have earned their numbers. This drop is something I’ll be getting the max of foils for.

So on top of my plans for Final Fantasy purchases, I’ll be adding the max of the Frazetta foils to my purchases. The rest can wait for singles. 

Once you’re done spending that money, you’ll get another chance a week later. Magic has teamed up with the National Association of Latino Arts and Cultures (NALAC) for a charity-driven drop that will be print-to-demand. You’ll have one month to make your purchases, from June 16 to July 13. Best of all, the price is $30 nonfoil/$40 foil, and this is unusual for the charity drops. Let’s talk about the cards: 

Secret Lair Presents: Nuestra Magia

Card	Current EDHREC #	Other Premium Versions
Tireless Provisioner	311,000	none
Sylvan Library	294,000	DMR Retro Foil $30 DMR Borderless Foil $65
Ancient Greenwarden	118,000	Pack FEA $19
Expressive Iteration	92,000	SPG foil $20 SLD Showdown foil $10
Xenagos, God of Revels	76,000 (plus 6k as commander)	SLD Constellation Foil $30
Lightning Greaves	1,521,000	MB2 foil $40 SLD Rainbow Foil $8 SPG Foil $22 SLD Galaxy Foil $40 PIP Surge foil $25 2XM Borderless Foil $21
Sol Ring	5,123,000 (lol)	Too damn many to count

The only fly in this ointment is that Iteration is banned in Pioneer and Legacy, otherwise, this is another banger of a drop. The least-included card here is Xenagos, a card that’s tough to get rid of and makes everyone at the table very hesitant to make a move, because you don’t know when something huge and hasty is going to show up and bash away. 

The Sol Ring deserves mention here as something that will get expensive, the art is just too good and it doesn’t matter that there’s already two dozen great pieces of art for that card. (I didn’t count, there’s just too much.) Sylvan Library is full-scale cheating in Commander, letting you do everything you want for only two mana, and the prices on that alone make this drop have a floor of breaking even, in both foil and nonfoil. I also adore the chancla being removed, because if you know, you know.

I also really appreciate that this is available in your choice of languages for the text. As I’ve aged into being a Magic boomer, I want to be able to read my cards. This drop strikes a great balance between the cultures and the languages. 

This is available for a month, so there’s no hurry. Your wallet has a chance to recover a little from Final Fantasy expenditures, and there’s a good chance you can buy the singles while the Lair is still on the site, too. I plan on buying several copies of this lair, in foil and non, plus some singles once supply maxes out. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Welcome to the latest installment of Mana Math, where I take a bunch of facts and figures that Wizards dumps on us and I turn it into a simple, understandable answer to the burning question: How hard is it to get the cards we want?

The math is pretty straightforward, but Wizards likes to obfuscate things, because they don’t want us to know specifics. As an example, thanks to The One Ring and the other serialized cards, we know exactly how many Collector Booster packs they printed of both the Holiday Edition and the summer edition. And from there, we know how many copies there are of each mythic, rare, uncommon and common from those packs. 

They don’t like it when we know all of that, so they try to hide a lot of it, but they are required by assorted laws to print your odds for each potential pull. So let’s break down the numbers, and see what we can see. 

To be clear, I’m focused on the Collector Boosters, for two reasons: First, they have never gone back and reprinted Collector Boosters, as far as we know. Closest is the LOTR Holiday Edition, and there’s no sign that they are going to do something like that here.

Our focus will be the last five slots of the Collector Booster. Let’s begin with three of those slots, and if you want Wizards’ breakdown, here is the link. Here’s my table to translate:

For the purposes of these tables, MSRP is $38 per CB, which is $456/box. They are currently selling for more than $750/box, and so I’m rounding the pack cost to $60/pack, or $720/box. I realize prices are fluctuating, and you might be able to get them cheaper, but you can’t get a large amount for a lot less, and the average is easier to comprehend.

Also, for this set, when they refer to Booster Fun, they mean one of the following treatments: Artist Rare, Woodblock Rare, Borderless Character, Borderless Lands, and EA Legendary Cards. 

It’s notable that you have three chances at a specific card with these slots, but they are guaranteeing that a maximum of one will be foil. You might get zero. The chances are a touch conditional, but not enough to make a notable difference when you’re at percentages like these. Keep in mind that you’re only at 8% per slot to get a foil anyway, so only about 32% of Collector Boosters would have even one foil. Further, of that 8%, 5.8% is going to be Traditional Foil EA rares from the Commander set. (Some awesome rares in there, though!) Diabolical!

I also want to point out that there’s a treatment which isn’t on this list: EA versions of the original art for the 8 face commanders, which can only be opened in the bundles that comes with two legendary EA cards, and the Collector Booster Sample packs. We aren’t given percentages, so I’m running with the idea that all are equal and with 163 options, over two slots, you’ve got a 1/81.5 of getting the specific EA you want.

Then we get to what might be the sweetest slot of all, but also the most swingy. The FCA slot, FINAL FANTASY Through the Ages, has an array of cards, and here’s the breakdown:

Most interesting tidbit here is that the foils and nonfoils will have exactly the same amount in circulation from Collector Boosters, but nonfoils can be opened in Play Boosters. According to Wizards, you have a 1 in 3 chance of opening a nonfoil FCA in Play Boosters, with a 63.25% for that card to be uncommon, 29.75% to be rare, and 7% to be foil.

So if you open 1000 Play Boosters, statistics say you’ll get 210 Uncommons, 99 rares, 23 mythics. Roughly, that would be 12 of each uncommon, 3 of each rare, and 1.5 of each mythic. Out of a thousand packs!

I fully expect the price on nonfoil uncommon FCAs to drop dramatically over time, rares and mythics will still be hard to pull but there will be a fair amount more of the nonfoils out there, thanks to the Play Boosters.

The last slot has all foils, including some Surge foils, and maybe even some Chocobos!

I’m estimating your chances at a colored Chocobo at 0.03% because all the others add up to 99.97% and the serialized is such a tiny percentage that it doesn’t matter. 

Look again, your eyes don’t lie. It will be twice as difficult to pull a FCA foil of one rarity as it will a Surge Foil Borderless (with the number in the background) of that same rarity. The Chocobos might have all the attention, but I will be watching early prices closely to see if people underprice the FCA foils or overprice the Surge Borderless. 

You may have noticed some overlap, and for the sake of being a completionist, here’s a table with your chances for some specific subtypes that show up in more than one slot. It’s not a big bump, but it’s a bump and we’re going for the 100% here.

Finally, let’s talk about the xx/77 Golden Chocobos. We know how many there are, and if we fill in the print run, we can get to percentages and odds. Here’s a table for you:

We think the print run for FIN will be a bit bigger than the LOTR main set, and we’re estimating that the Collector Booster print run is just under 4 million packs. Roughly, it’ll take you 50,000 packs to catch the golden bird, and if you do, there’s enough collectors out there to give you a sweet pack of greens. 

If you have questions or god forbid, I made errors, please reach out to me on social media. The ProTrader Discord is the best choice by far, and we can merrily argue over thousandths of a percent. Good luck in your packs!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.