By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin
Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.
Kaladesh is pretty awesome looking, right? Aesthetically it’s a great blend of multiple inspirations, and the glistening flourish of the art direction is a welcome reprieve after the grimdark atmosphere of Shadows Over Innistrad. People are glad to see a new artifact set that isn’t Mirrodin. Vehicles are rather Star Wars Episode I: Pod Racery for my taste, but they’re fine overall. I actually think they’re probably way too good.
Wizards has a track record of setting the bar too high on new card types and subtypes. They were nowhere near where they wanted to be with the original five planeswalkers, and it took years before they finally got them to an appropriate level. Back in Mirrodin when they rolled out equipment it was laughably overpowered. Skullclamp, one of the ten strongest cards in Magic’s history, was an uncommon. Grafted Wargear exists. Loxodon Warhammer was an uncommon. Bonesplitter was common.
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I like this kind of article – levelheaded investigation backed up by graphs. Speccing on standard is too much like gambling for my taste. I took the scattershot approach last time and made some money here, lost some money there, and probably just wasted my time overall. I’ll stick to the slow and steady sure bets from now on. (Or as often as humanly possible – you have to allow yourself a little reckless gamble now and then).
Ya, Expeditions/Masterpieces are really going to throw off prices I think. It will be VERY hard to predict overall trends for sets that include “Masterpieces” until we get a few under our belt.
I think for that reason, if you are looking to speculate on Standard, you might want to take an extremely close look at Shadows over Innistrad and even more important, Eldritch Moon. There is no supplemental “special” set attached to throw off card prices.
Foil Mythics on MTGO still seem like a GREAT place to speculate due to redemption pressure pushing their prices upward throughout the year. Eldritch Moon Foil Mythics especially.
I really like the odds of Tamiyo, Field Researcher Foils hitting $10+, probably Grim Flayer Foils hitting $12-$15+ and many of the foil mythics in the $4-$6 range will probably be more like $5-$8 in six months to a year. Stay away from the highest priced cards and focus on the middle mythics if you are looking for “safe” bets. At least until you are sure the top 3 Foil Mythics have bottomed out and are now rising again.
Keep in mind that Eldritch Moon Paper Foils will not have as much time to drop in price once Kaladesh comes out and people stop drafting Eldritch Moon. The major supply of Eldritch Moon Foils at that point is going to come from redeeming full sets from MTGO. As more and more sets get redeemed, the demand for MTGO foils goes up and the pressure is taken off the Paper Foils… I say… Get in on these MTGO Eldritch Moon Foils NOW (2 weeks ago really! Posted in the Forums.) and ride that wave.
If you haven’t already, I highly suggest that people take a look at Eldritch Moon Foil Mythic prices on MTGO. Keep a close eye on the Weekly Gains section. Take it a step further and find out which foils are Sold Out most of the time… even though they are still being listed between $5-$10. These are the targets that I like.
And keep in mind you ARE NOT speculating on “Standard” really. You are speculating on Redemption Demand for Foil Mythics in a Small set that is now going to be a major oddity now that we have this new wrinkle called “Masterpieces” to worry about. Anyway… I did a lot of research on all the changes to the speculation game recently… Speculating on Eldritch Moon Foil Mythics on MTGO really seemed like one of the safest specs to park money in this month.
I don’t think its too late to get in on “cheap” Foil Mythics from Eldritch Moon… But once Kaladesh hits and Eldritch Moon isn’t being drafted as much… That is when we will see prices really start to move.
Agreed. To add from the foil discussion. I think right *now* is the optimal time to go in on SOI and EMN staples since paper drafting has mostly come to an end. I strongly think that delirium components (e.g. liliana, kalitas) are okay bets, since there will be some sort of deck for them. If you want to play spirits, I’d also get Spell quelled now. Some SOI dual lands would also be nice to have as well.
Just my thoughts.