We’re at an interesting point in the Magic calendar. Bloomburrow previews start next week, Assassin’s Creed has just landed with a thud, and the Pro Tour was filled with combo decks trying to combo past each other. Wild times!
With that in mind, there’s some big, unanswered questions that Wizards absolutely has to come up with answers to, and those answers are going to have big financial implications too.
1) Modern bans: Which, and when?
Officially, the next set of banning announcements will be in August sometime. The official announcement on June 24 said that the next one would be ‘in August’ but clearly, everyone and their cousin, plus their best friend and the random stranger across the street, they all have decided that a ban for Nadu is coming:
I grant you that this is a rare from a big set that’s still being opened, but Nadu decks were 20% of the PT meta, 5 of the top 8, and all of the final four players standing. This was a known deck, at least in concept, and a huge swath of players chose to join the best deck than try to beat the best deck.
Nadu decks are not going to survive much longer in their current form. The price is dropping fast, which is the opposite of what a breakout card that won a Pro Tour should do. Wizards clearly needs to do something, but what will they do? We’ve only got a few small events’ worth of data to go one since the PT, but keep in mind that the PT decks are the result of a week or two of frenzied testing. It’s reasonable to think that we haven’t hit on the ‘best’ Nadu deck yet, but the hive mind will get there.
There are three paths forward:
- Do nothing and let the meta sort things out for now. August is the planned banning time, so there’s no need to hurry. Let the wisdom of the group figure out answers.
- Emergency ban on Shuko or Springheart, two of the key enablers for the deck. Endless people have compared this to the Hogaak/Bridge from Below problem, where Wizards tries to get rid of the easy/early tools for the deck. Scute Swarm and Umbral Mantle are the first things tat come to mind, or maybe we have to add Puresteel Paladin into the mix.
- Emergency ban on Nadu, Winged Wisdom. Does this overclock Mono-B or the Ruby Storm? Maybe ban with those too.
I don’t know what they are going to do, only that something needs to get done.
2) When will Wizards learn that small standalone sets are not a good idea?
Assassin’s Creed is street-legal as of 7/5, and at this moment, there are six cards which are worth more than $10 in the regular, nonfoil frame. (I expect that to get lower in the days to come, but I can only work with current data.) Four of those are reprints and one is an Onslaught reprint, Cover of Darkness, that hasn’t gotten any new copies in 20+ years.
Aftermath was an unpopular product that did not sell well. Assassin’s Creed is selling, but not at the high velocities that other Universes Beyond products have had. It appears that the ideal model for these products is the Commander deck + Collector Booster model, and Wizards doesn’t seemed to have grasped that concept yet
3) A set for 5 years in standard?!!??!
More details are going to be coming about Foundations, the Standard supplement set that is due to be released November 15 and be legal in Standard until 2029, at least according to the early information we’ve been given. There’s going to be Jumpstart boosters, Play Boosters, and Collector Boosters. In addition, there’s a tier of entry-level product with known amounts and cards, to help new players get used to the paper game.
Magic is an incredibly difficult game to learn, let alone master well enough for a Commander game. It takes a lot of practice, and a lot of dedicated folks helping you learn. I approve highly of making such a set, but why on earth would we have a Play and Collector booster tier of products for the starter set?
I have many questions about this set, but the main one is this: How are they going to release a product that does both of these things:
- Stays available for five years
- Keeps enough of a price for five years that vendors will buy it and players will want to open it
I genuinely don’t know how that’s accomplished. If you make it widely accessible, the value is lowered. If you have a limited run, god forbid in year three the lands in this set become expensive. I’m hopeful that there will be more information coming, but my initial thoughts are to be very very wary of this set and its design.
4) How quickly will the next two Hatsune Miku Secret Lairs sell out?
The first was sold out in about 6 hours, maybe a little less judging by the posts in our ProTrader Discord. (I’m talking North America here, I’m aware that the EU version of the site had some product for a bit longer) The second sold out in about two hours. In a vacuum, the first set had more mediocre cards, but had better bundle pricing and bigger spending got some sweet Seedborn Muses.
This second run had no bonus at all for bigger spenders, but had better cards (Sol Ring!) and went flying on orders. There’s no reason to think that the third and fourth drops will be immune from the same effects. The only question is if there is more of these lairs being printed. I’d give a lot to know the exact print runs for Secret Lair drops these days, but Wizards knows and they are setting the table.
I think they have most Lairs dialed in correctly. Right now, with about ten of the twenty days passed, we’re sold out of NOT A WOLF, the Miku drops, Prints of Darkness, and Da Vinci’s Designs in foil. That leaves the Julie Bell cards and the Lethal Legends, we’ll see if any of those leftovers get sold out in the last ten days.
As I said on the cast, be ready, be logged in, and have your card ready to go. The first two went fast, and I expect the second two to go even faster now that we have the first ones selling for double the cost to buy in.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.