All posts by Cliff Daigle

I am a father, teacher, cuber and EDH fanatic. My joy is in Casual and Limited formats, though I dip a toe into Constructed when I find something fun to play. I play less than I want to and more than my schedule should really allow. I can easily be reached on Twitter @WordOfCommander. Try out my Busted Uncommons cube at http://www.cubetutor.com/viewcube/76330

The Math of MOM:Aftermath

You might not think a new set was out already, but here it is, an ‘epilogue’ set with no commons and full-priced boosters.

Let’s start with the big change: This is a very small set, not meant for drafting or Sealed or anything like that. There’s no commons! In other times, this might have been a bonus sheet, just like the Multiverse Legends sheet for March of the Machine.

So let’s get into what is what, and how rare is rare. Surprises ahead!

We’re given 15 uncommons, 25 rares, and 10 mythic rares. 

Each of those cards will have an Etched Foil version and a special frame. Most of the special frames reflect the planes involved, as they did with the Multiverse Legends set. The land of the set, Drannith Ruins, and the six cards that have a retro frame do not have Halo foil versions.

Three rarities, two frames, three foil treatments. They don’t always overlap, either. Etched foil has the matte frame we’re used to, plus we have Extended Art versions of all the rares and mythics in this set.

Plus, there’s two different boosters. Epilogue Boosters and Collector Boosters.

Epilogue Boosters are the more basic, and the cheaper ones.

We can calculate this pretty quickly, especially because Etched Foil and Halo Foil aren’t options for this booster.

One of the things we’re told in the Collecting article is that 1 in 6 Epilogue Boosters will have a rare or mythic rare. That’s outside what I’d expect, but a useful tidbit because now we know the relative proportions of rarities to each other in this set.

Hearken back to Algebra with me. We’re told that 5/6 boosters will have an uncommon in the slot. We also know that Wizards likes to distribute twice as many rares as mythic rares. Breaking that down, and with a little fractions, we can say that out of 18 random boosters, 15 will have an uncommon, 2 will have a rare, and one will contain a mythic rare.  With this in mind, here is the table for the distribution for the next to last slot, a regular frame, traditional foil of any rarity:

Percent chance of opening any card of that rarityHow many of these will you get in a booster box of 24?How many packs to open to get a specific card of that rarity?
Uncommon83.1%19.94 uncommons18 packs
Rare11.2%2.68 rares225 packs
Mythic Rare5.6%1.34 mythics180 packs

Now you might be saying, “Wait a minute, rares are rarer than mythics?” and the answer appears to be yes. Rares are going to appear twice as often, but there’s only ten mythics to choose from. 

The final slot in this booster is a mix of everything in the Booster Fun frame. Which in this case is everything, both foil and nonfoil. With that many options, you can imagine your odds get more and more terrible. We know that they give us the 1 in 6 for rares and mythics. It’s an additional 1 in 6 to get a foil in this slot!

Booster Fun frame (planar, retro, borderless)Percent chance for any card of that categoryPercent chance for a specific card of that category# of boosters to open one specific card from that category
Nonfoil Uncommon69.3%4.62%21.6
Nonfoil Rare9.26%0.37%269.97
Nonfoil Mythic Rare4.63%0.46%215.98
Traditional Foil Uncommon13.8%0.92%108.7
Traditional Foil Rare1.85%0.074%1,351
Traditional Foil Mythic0.925%0.0925%1,081

Again, for the Epilogue Boosters, the rarest rares are rarer than the rarest mythic rares. Wild, but normally there’s a higher proportion of rares to mythics. 

Let’s talk about Collector Boosters. 

The Traditional foil/regular frame slot is easy to figure out. There’s 25 rares and 10 mythics, and therefore the pool of potential pulls is 60 cards (2 of each rare, 1 of each mythic.) You’re at 1/30 to get the rare you want and 1/60 for the mythic you want.

Extended-Art is one more step. There’s an EA version for each rare and mythic. Then 1/3 of these boosters will have a foil in the slot. 

Percent chance for any card of that categoryPercent chance for a specific card of that category# of boosters to open one specific card from that category
Nonfoil EA Rare55.56%2.22%45
Nonfoil EA Mythic Rare11.11%1.11%90
Foil EA Rare27.7%1.11%45
Foil EA Mythic Rare5.56%0.56%180

The Etched Foils are precisely the same as the Traditional Foil.  There’s 25 rares and 10 mythics, and therefore the pool of potential pulls is 60 cards (2 of each rare, 1 of each mythic.) You’re at 1/30 to get the rare you want and 1/60 for the mythic you want.

Then the last slot, where special Planar frames come into play, as well as Halo foil printings. They did a tricky thing here, as retro foils aren’t available in Halo. So while we have 25 rares and ten mythics in traditional foil, we also have 21 rares and 8 mythics in Halo foil. It’s a little odd, but here’s 

Percent chance for any card of that categoryPercent chance for a specific card of that category# of boosters to open one specific card from that category
Traditional Foil Planar Frame Rare69.4%2.7%36
Traditional Foil Planar Frame Mythic Rare13.9%1.39%72
Halo Foil Planar Frame Rare11.67%0.55%180
Halo Foil Planar Frame Mythic Rare2.2%0.27%360

With all this said, let’s summarize with examples of each rarity and version.

Card/treatment/setApprox. number of Epilogue Boosters needed to find one copy
Nonfoil Planar Frame Feast of the Restless Dead (Uncommon)21.6
Nonfoil Planar Frame The Kenriths’ Royal Funeral (Rare)269.97
Nonfoil Planar Frame Kiora, Sovereign of the Deep (Mythic Rare)215.98
Card/treatment/setApprox. number of Collector Boosters needed to find one copy
Nonfoil Extended Art Spark Rupture (Rare)45
Nonfoil Extended Art Calix, Guided by Fate (Mythic Rare)90
Foil EA Tranquil Frillback (Rare)45
Foil EA Nahiri, Forged in Fury (Mythic Rare)180
Etched Foil Rebuild the City (Rare)30
Etched Foil Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin (Mythic Rare)60
Traditional Foil Planar Frame Rocco, Street Chef (Rare)36
Traditional Foil Planar Frame Mythic Rare 72
Halo Foil Planar Frame Sigarda, Font of Blessings (Rare)180
Halo Foil Planar Frame Sarkhan, Soul Aflame (Mythic Rare)360

I hope that these numbers help you figure out what purchases to make, and for how much. Stay tuned for more math with every set of packs.

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

MOM Says Get Up!

The first week or so of actual sales are in the books, and we’ve got some prices that have risen impressively. Some of these we sort of saw coming, others arrived from the clear blue sky.

Let’s get into what is what, and where they might go from here.

See Double (Low of fifty cents, now $4) 

See Double is a good card. It’s already strong at 2UU for an instant-speed clone of a creature in play. It’s also 2UU: Copy target spell, which will never ever feel bad, especially if you’re getting a sweet permanent into play. Go ahead and copy someone’s Commander! Having the flexibility to do either of these things is a big game in modern Commander games, and feels pretty great.

In the later turns, being able to do BOTH is nigh ridiculous. Cleary you’re getting a 2-for-1 on pure cards, but it’s not hard to imagine you getting a lot more. Did you copy a Time Stretch and then clone someone’s Etali, Primal Storm? Perhaps you liked that Crackle with Power enough to kill the original caster AND give yourself someone else’s Avacyn, Angel of Hope?

This is a clear case where the people have spoken and the people speaking don’t use EDHREC. See Double is only listed in 1500 decks so far, and that’s good for #40 on the list. For perspective, Hoarding Broodlord is in about 150 more decks, is the same rarity, and is half as much. Give the people their best clone spell ever!

I think See Double can hold its current price nicely. TCG will backfill copies in, seeking the low points, but this has been popular enough early enough that it’ll stay above two dollars. You might see a copy here and there for $1.99 plus shipping, feel free to believe that’s a steal.

Ancient Imperiosaur (fifty cents to $2.50) 

There are ways to make this redundantly huge. If you can tap four creatures, making this cost 1GG, then it’ll come in as a 14/14. If you get to turn four, and have five creatures, you can spend GG casting this as a 16/16 with enough mana left over to Surge-cast Reckless Bushwhacker and smash some real face. 

Ward 2 is really underestimated for Constructed play. Decks in the modern day are optimized to the millimeter, and adding a big tax like this is probably going to take a whole turn. Doesn’t matter if they have a Plains and Swamp untapped, your dino is going to live and do a lot of work, at least this turn. 

The really good news here is that Ancient Imperiosaur will sell by the playset, not by the singleton. This is another card that I think will hold its price, even as an in-print rare. There’s a lot going for it and if the deck places high in results for a week or two, it could easily be a $5 card. Keep an eye on where the price is in a few months, because this might end up being a very attractive brick target.

Faerie Mastermind ($4.50 to $11) –

If you’ve listened to MTG Fast Finance, you’ve heard James talk about this card and he’s been right. It’s a standout in Commander, easily drawing you a lot more cards than it does for other people. Right away, it was expensive and like most cards, it dropped pretty far. However, it’s rebounded up from a $5 floor and come back up to $10, which is about the limit for in-print rares unless they are mega-staples like Ledger Shredder or Fable of the Mirror-Breaker. 

The deterrent factor is real here too. People don’t like giving cards away, and Flash gives you the chance to get the card back quickly. After that, people won’t want to do things that end up giving you cards, so you get to have that hanging over their heads. I can also see this in group hug strategies, where you give something to everyone, but you get more!

There’s also a Rogues deck running around in Pioneer that’s playing this as a four-of, and when you add that to the #1 ranking from March of the Machine on EDHREC, you have a recipe for staying in the $8-$10 range. There’s a lot of copies being opened, but there’s also a lot of copies being bought. Keep in mind that this is a delightful target for stocking up on if it’s nearly to $6 in a couple months.

Invasion of Ikoria ($6 to $18 to $15)

We know tutors are good, so good that Green Sun’s Zenith is banned in Modern. Finale of Devastation is so good that it’s a $40 card, though it’s avoided reprints since its original printing in 2019. This battle is showing up in Pioneer’s Mono-Green decks in dribs and drabs, less as a combo piece and more as something to do with all the mana Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx is making for you.

Invasion of Ikoria is also very good, though its restriction of non-Humans rules out a big section of potential targets, including a target that would probably play this in Devoted Druid combo decks. This is the #3 card from MOM currently, being in just over 5000 decks. It’s pretty awesome to have a tutor put the creature into play, and then for the low price of getting six combat damage in, you get a free 8/8 with reach and sort-of-unblockable-ness. 

All that said, it’s a rare and it’s very difficult to have a rare keep a price this high in a Standard set, especially one being opened at the rate MOM is going. I think that this price is reflective of the number of people who open one and don’t sell it, putting it in a Commander deck instead. Even with the invisible hands at work, though, I expect this to come down to the $10 range over time.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Apprehension As Aftermath Arrives

My favorite leak of all time has got to be the New Phyrexia Godbook being shared on IRC chat way back in the day. A new favorite of mine, though, is the YouTuber who filmed a couple of box openings for March of the Machine: Aftermath and decided to release those a couple months early.

As a result, we know a lot of the cards in the set ahead of schedule, and if you don’t like unofficial spoilers, you can read what I think and avoid specifics card images. I’m not going to post any of those, but I am going to talk about potential gainers based on the cards.

Krakens, Leviathans, Serpents, and Octopus cards – There’s a new blue-green legend that cares about these creature types, giving you a free card off the top based on the creature’s mana cost. You have to cast it from hand, but then you get a peek at some number of cards, then cast the spell for free. A pretty great deal for any circumstance, but what if there was a huge Kraken that reduced its cost for playing special lands, and could even return itself to your hand?

Step right up, Icebreaker Kraken, this might be your time to shine:

(disclaimer: I bought 101 of these at forty cents each when Runo Stromkirk was previewed. It’s up to sixty cents now!)

Really, this is everything the new Kraken commander might want, letting you look at a ton of cards, but not costing full price because of the built-in reduction. Then once you get the cast and ETB triggers, you can bounce it to your hand to be replayed when you want to do it all again.

There’s a lot of sweet Kraken, Leviathan, Octopus, or Serpent (hereafter known as KLOS) cards that could rise. Breaching Leviathan hasn’t had a reprint since its debut in C14 and if it dodges a reprint in Commander Masters, it might shoot to the moon. Quest for Ula’s Temple has already spiked hard once and could hit $10 again. Whelming Wave is probably the best card in your deck but it’s had so many printings that I don’t think it’ll rise to a good value. Spawning Kraken used to be a lot cheaper than it is, but making 9/9 tokens is an experience every player should have.

Special notice for Hullbreaker Horror, though. 

The Double Feature foil is over fifty bucks, so there’s unlikely to be huge gains made there. The FEA versions can still be had under $20, especially because this is going to rotate out of Standard in a few months. It still sees a sprinkle of Standard play, most often as a control finisher, but blue decks of any type, even KLOS, love to leave mana up for shenanigans then resolve something bonkers like this.

Moving on from KLOS cards, there’s a new Ob Nixilis who is an immediate game-ending combo with All Will Be One, with the catch that every damage dealt exiles the top card of your library. This doesn’t immediately lose you the game, as it never says ‘draw a card’ but it’s something to be aware of. We’re also going to see a certain number of pingers spike, things like Pestilence and Pyrohemia as well. Repeatable ways to deal one damage, like Shivan Gorge, the unloved child of Urza’s Saga’s five rare lands. Gaea’s Cradle, Tolarian Academy, Serra’s Sanctum, Phyrexian Tower, and then poor ol’ Gorge. Tough times.

Since it triggers off of opponents losing exactly one life, there’s a range of cards that might go haywire. Ayara, First of Locthwain or Bastion of Remembrance are good, Bontu’s Monument is already a $10 foil in uncommon. Cryptolith Fragment is possibly going to jump too, but the deeper cut is Karazikar, the Eye Tyrant, from the AFR Commander subset. Lots of fun for everyone! Ob Nixilis of the Black Oath, one of the original planeswalker-as-commanders who will also work very well in the deck.

There’s a new Karn, who cares both about having a high mana value artifact in play as well as having lots of artifacts in play. Gotta go big and wide. Myr Battlesphere comes to mind, and while that’s had twelve printings, there’s foils only from Double Masters and Scars of Mirrodin, reasonable targets both. 

Snake Basket also comes to mind as a way to take a lot of mana and make tokens, as does Hangarback Walker. Thopter Assembly is slow, but can be a fun way to do the thing you want to do. The big thing I’m thinking of, though, is a card that I can’t advocate speculating on because it cries out to be in Commander Masters: Mycosynth Golem.

It was in Fifth Dawn and it had a presence on The List for a short while, but the card is pushing $40 on the idea that there’s almost no copies in circulation somehow. This will get reprinted, and remind players all over again how busted a mechanic this truly is. I can’t say if it’ll be in a Secret Lair or Commander Masters, or when the reprint will arrive, but it’s a matter of when, not if.

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

MOM’s Basket of Rares

The set is officially released next Friday, and there’s a lot of amazing things going on. A Multiverse Legends sheets playing merry hell with the draft/sealed format, previews for the doesn’t-have-commons Aftermath set, and serialized cards setting all sorts of records. Wild times!

One other wild thing going on is that rares in this set are vastly overpriced for cards who are about to flood the market. Traditionally, preordering is only for those who must have the newest thing now, either for Commander or Constructed play. About once every other set, a rare climbs from its low price to be a multi-format staple, destined to be expensive until its inevitable reprint. Examples include Ledger Shredder and Fable of the Mirror-Breaker.

So let’s get into March of the Machine’s rares, looking at current prices, where I think those prices will go, and if there’s anything worth buying right now.

All prices are for the regular nonfoil, and are accurate as of Friday morning, 4/14, but prices are about to be very volatile.

City on Fire ($8.50 preorder) – We’ve seen that a very similar card at mythic can do some amazing growth. Behold, Fiery Emancipation: 

Big caveat, though, is the rare vs mythic and the idea that MOM is going to sell a lot more booster packs than M21 did. The serialized chase is going to crater the prices of a lot of cards, and while I am looking forward to buying a big stack of City on Fire, I’m going to be patient about it. Hopefully this gets down to the $2-$3 range, a much safer starting point for the journey.

Faerie Mastermind ($6) – I know that Invitational cards are rarely bad, and this one especially hits hard. In Commander, it’s not hard to make this do a lot of work for you, and it’s going to be adopted very quickly into a wide range of decks. It’s got applications in lots and lots of deck types, and is aggressively costed for Standard appeal. I like the long-term potential of this card, I’m just unwilling to get in this early when there’s so many copies left to open.

Invasion of Ikoria ($6) – Finale of Devastation and Green Sun’s Zenith are similar cards, and this is now a card that can be played alongside the Finale. The main issue is that Invasion can’t go get Vizier of Remedies in Devoted Druid combo decks, as that’s a deck which would likely play a copy or two of the tutor. Rare in MOM is a whole different animal than mythic in WAR, and this is not going to give you $40 pricing ever. It’ll be lucky to be a $10 card in one year’s time, and in the short term, it going to fall to a dollar or less.

Tribute to the World Tree ($3) – Again, we have similar cards out there that haven’t taken off financially, and none of them had the hardcore mana cost that makes this mostly an option for decks that are mono-green or heavy in that color. It’s a fantastic card in Devotion decks, but in almost all ways, The Great Henge is better. I’m always a fan of adding the peanut butter and jelly together, though!

Chrome Host Seedshark ($2) – Of all the cards on this list, this is the one I’m most favorable towards. This effect is quite amazing, but we have a warning card in Metallic Summonings, which was mythic, it is an enchantment that is a lot harder to get rid of, and nonfoils are just over a buck. The Shark triggers on all noncreature spells, which is good, but it’s a creature and easy to kill. There’s tradeoffs, certainly.

Summonings dropped in price when it was in the Commander 2021 decks, but foils haven’t budged at all. I’m going to be waiting on buying the Shark for a bit, but if you asked me which rare from MOM might get there, this would be the one. If it gets to a nicely low price, especially FEA versions, I’m very likely to buy a brick.

Etali, Primal Conqueror ($4.50) – I love that we get the top of the deck effect right away, but then that’s it. Getting this effect as an attack trigger would be ideal, but honestly, the giant 7/7 trampler will be pretty good along with the four free spells you just cast. Shouldn’t be a huge problem.

Plus, you can flip it into a Blightsteel Colossus for just a little more mana and life! There’s no way Etali holds its price, not even a little bit. This will end up as close to bulk, even as it kicks butt all over Commander tables.

Invasion of Alara ($1) – I adore WUBRG cards. I’m pretty close to making a Commander deck with that as the theme. I only have one 5-color deck right now, and it’s the Ur-Dragon. I tried The Kami War in there, and found it mediocre, but I think this Invasion is one of the best even if you don’t flip it. You’re getting your five mana back, statistically speaking, and then there’s an enormous payoff for dealing the 7 damage. Given that this is already so cheap, I’m hesitant to say it’ll go up, especially when looking at the graphs for things like The Kami War. It’ll be bulk, and it’ll likely stay there.

Rampaging Raptor ($0.75) – Questing Beast was a mythic, and just couldn’t be blocked by small things. This is clearly worst than the Beast, but not by much. The problem is, what deck does this go into? There’s barely a market for it in Standard, unless a deck takes off that is hyper-focused on battles. Still, if this is the top end for a super-aggressive red deck, it has great potential to climb out of its trench. If it starts moving, be prepared to move with it.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.