All posts by Cliff Daigle

I am a father, teacher, cuber and EDH fanatic. My joy is in Casual and Limited formats, though I dip a toe into Constructed when I find something fun to play. I play less than I want to and more than my schedule should really allow. I can easily be reached on Twitter @WordOfCommander. Try out my Busted Uncommons cube at http://www.cubetutor.com/viewcube/76330
Casual Fridays, Uncategorized

Are We Buying The Camp Totally Safe Secret Lair Superdrop?

The Secret Lair machine keeps churning, and for Halloween month, we’re getting a set of eight drops that are themed appropriately.

Amazingly, there are no lands on this list, and nothing in a regular frame. Only one drop even has a showcase frame, the rest are borderless or esoteric, which suits me just fine. 

So let’s get into the cards, the IP offerings, and my current purchase plans.

Hatsune Miku: Electric Entourage

Elspeth Tirel (50¢ to $24, 15,000 decks)

Jace, Unraveler of Secrets ($4 to $19, 13k) – Zombie and Hieroglyph SDCC versions!

Liliana of the Dark Realms ($16 to $400, 29k) – Textured foil from BLB and SDCC black versions!

The Royal Scions (50¢ to $3, 5k) 

Freyalise, Llanowar’s Fury ($2 to $6, 31k plus 1500 as Commander)

Chandra, Flamecaller (50¢ to $17, 11k decks)

This is the third Miku drop and there’s not much new to say about the singer or Vocaloids. I’d forgotten that this version of Jace was in two consecutive SDCC sets, and yet is still not very popular. Liliana of the Dark Realms was just in Bloomburrow, and also has a silver-on-black SDCC version that is impossible to read in person. 

I fully expect this drop to be the first one to sell out, just like the first two did. My current plan once the fourth drop arrives later this year is to repackage all four into complete sets and sell them that way. I’m also going to be heavily targeting the English foils, as those are the big gainers. The Japanese-language cards haven’t really grown in value yet. 

Featuring Peach Momoko

SLD] Featuring Peach Momoko : r/magicTCG
SLD] Featuring Peach Momoko : r/magicTCG

Psychic Corrosion ($6 to $15, 41k decks)

Visions of Beyond ($7 to $10, 17k)

Time Sieve ($7 to $33, 33k)

Aetherize ($1 to $3, 118k decks!)

Drown in Dreams (bulk to $2, no foils, 37k decks)

Peach Momoko is a big artist in the Marvel world, doing some very cool variant covers. This is a fun set of blue cards, mostly mill-themed, and that’s a set that many casual players love. Aetherize is one of my favorite Commander plays, as there’s no defense aside from counterspells and can be deployed politically. 

I expect this lair to do well and sell out. There’s no big anchor card but there doesn’t need to be, with a theme like this and with fantastic art. 

Tome of the Astral Sorceress

Back to Basics ($4 to $40, 21k decks)

Preordain ($1 to $35, 251k decks!)

Sphinx of the Second Sun ($1 to $20, 36k decks)

Teferi’s Ageless Insight ($2 to $6, 117k decks!)

I really want to like this drop. I like some abstract art, I like having two strong staples. However, I have to acknowledge that Poker Faces, Goblingram, and Deceptive Divination are the closest analogies we have for this sort of thing and those haven’t lit anything up yet. If I end up with any of these, it’ll be because I bought all-foil bundles. Otherwise, I’m skipping it.

Showcase: Duskmourn

Phyrexian Metamorph ($5 to $25, 155k decks)

Dauthi Voidwalker ($10 to $90, 195k decks)

Magus of the Moon ($6 to $26, 34k decks)

Cauldron Familiar ($2 to $10, 27k decks)

Witch’s Oven ($1 to $3, 32k decks)

If there wasn’t a Miku drop and a set of nostalgia-heavy cards, this would be my lock. Oven-Familiar is not in a lot of Commander decks but it’s a four-of combo in sacrifice decks for Pioneer and Modern. Voidwalker and Metamorph are staples of the format, and I am going to be getting extras here.

Monstrous Magazines

Ravenous Chupacabra (bulk to $10, 99k decks) – SL from 2021

Mazirek, Kraul Death Priest ($9 to $20, 39k deck plus 1900 as Commander) – SL from 2023

Uril, the Miststalker ($1 to $6, 3500 as Commander) 

Koma, Cosmos Serpent ($4 to $13, 52k decks plus 5k as Commander)

Doom Whisperer ($1 to $12, 37k decks)

Two of these already have a SL version, and I have to say this art is better all around. Doom Whisperer especially is a card I want to have in a deck, even if it does look like three-handed AI art. This is a solid drop, with a lot to offer, including how the Chupacabra bears an eerie resemblance to the big dogs from the original Ghostbusters movie.

Edit: As a bonus, on the official summary of the Lairs, because of the Koma misprint, all versions will be $5 off, making this $35/$25 and even more appealing.

Child’s Play

Kardur, Doomscourge (bulk prices, 60k plus 4500 as Commander)

Varragoth, Bloodsky Sire ($2 to $7, 53k, plus 1800 as Commander)

Twinflame ($3 to $12, 70k decks)

Phyrexian Reclamation ($4 to $24, 87k decks)

Genesis Chamber ($2 to $23, 32k decks)

Kardur is more popular than I would have guessed, but looks like a blast to play. When the table builds up, you get to set it all off! Reclamation is a hard card to beat, and while this isn’t a big set of cards financially, the theme is good enough that I’ll probably get a couple of extras. As I wrote last week, it’s not about the cards being my cup of tea; I just need the tea to be popular and Chucky has been popular enough to spawn seven movies after the first one.

Ghostbusters: Slimer

The Mimeoplasm (bulk to $5, 5k as card and 5k as Commander) – SL in 2020

Trickbind ($15 to $90, 12k decks) – First Reprint Ever

Windfall ($2 to $7, 295k decks) – first special frame (30th promo)

Incarnation Technique ($8 to $9, 27k) – First Foil

Pernicious Deed ($5 to $60, 18k) –

Trickbind getting its first reprint ever means it’s a scarcity price, not a demand price. Incarnation Technique is a delightful political card, and this should be the most expensive Windfall pretty quickly. Slimer is iconic, and while I would have picked some different movie moments for the drop, I’m pretty sure this will be gone within a few hours. 

The Real Ghostbusters – Animated

Unlicensed Hearse ($1 to $5, 18k decks)

Boros Charm ($2 to $20, 257k decks)

Careful Study ($1 to $40, 23k decks)

Eladamri’s Call ($7 to $20, 114k decks)

Living End ($4 to $22, 2500 decks)

Again, we’ve got a card that is a four-of in its Constructed deck, but also two fantastic staples. Boros Charm was in Valentine’s Day 2021, and while this is less cute, it’s more iconic. This is the first special version for Eladamri’s Call, and that alone would have me thinking it’s worth the drop, but add in the greatness of the cartoon and we are there. 

So, with all this in mind, here’s my current thinking for what I’ll be buying: First off, lots of Miku. The English foils are the fastest risers and if you just want a quick flip that’s where you should be. I have confidence in the whole set long-term, but it’s easy to see where the fast money is. I’m a believer in the Ghostbusters drops and the Chucky too, and definitely the Showcase.

Given that the all-foil bundle discount is usually around 13-15%, I’ll have to do some thinking about if that’s worth it to end up with the Tome of the Astral Sorceress. The Monster Magazine will probably be fine long-term, but the Tome Drop feels like a dud when compared with others in that sort of art style, so the exact amount will be the determining factor.

We usually get a mini-bundle of all four Miku, and if that’s offered again I’ll probably get three of those plus five of the EN foils. I’m hopeful for a mini-bundle of Ghostbusters (maybe with Chucky?) because I plan to max out on those as well as the Showcase. 

Good luck and happy buying on Monday!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Uncategorized

Will The Ghostbusters Secret Lairs Be Worth the Trouble?

On Monday, September 30th, there’s a new Secret Lair dropping, with a wide range of cards, art, and Intellectual Property (IP for short, the term used when you want to use the fandom/art/characters/lore/etc). It’s mostly Halloween based, but there’s still a few more cards coming, I think, so today I want to focus on an idea that Secret Lairs have been using: Does the card quality matter more than the fandom? 

I used to be a strong believer that the cards matter. We can find many examples of this, but the core principle for me was that the cards in a drop have to be at least playable for people to give a crap. 

And then Hatsune Miku came along. 

I broke down the prices for these when they came out back in May, and I was expressly clear about the IP being the draw and not the cards. Nothing in this drop is more than $4 in its base version, this is incomplete sets of niche lands, cards that have been power crept out of wide usage, and in English foil, the sealed drop is pushing $100 four months later. 

I think there’s opportunity in the other sealed Miku drops–I’m expecting all four Miku drops to hit a peak when the fourth lands near the end of this year and they can be sold as four-volume sets–that are under $50 with shipping and taxes, but be wary of trying to hold forever, holding out for something like $200. That price can happen (see Princess Bride and Evil Dead) but I like turning cards over and getting your profit reinvested into your next moves. 

I did not know who Hatsune Miku was. I knew I’d missed out on other drops because I underestimated the artist, or the genre, or anything like that. I’d even under-ordered things I knew I’d like but I didn’t think would be big, like the Princess Bride or Evil Dead. That is the core question of Secret Lairs now that they have moved to an IP/theme model: Which themes are going to resell best?

For example, the Spookydrop 2023 is the one that had Evil Dead, Princess Bride, and some other things like Doctor Who’s Weeping Angels and Creepshow. They were bundled together, but this is from the model of Secret Lair that did not sell out–they printed to demand. That’s been a huge change, but even so, for drops that happened at the same time, we’ve got a giant gap in pricing. Evil Dead and Princess Bride are over $150, nearing $200, and Creepshow is at half that price, as is the Dr. Who.

So the question of the moment is: Will Ghostbusters be Princess Bride or will it be Creepshow?

My inclination is to think that Ghostbusters (both the cartoon SL and the Slimer SL) will sell well. Both because the IP is strong and nostalgic, very important in this age of Magic pandering to the folks in their early 40s, but also because it’s going to sell alongside the next Miku installment, and that will be gone quickly. 

I recognize that the cards in the Ghostbusters drop are not Field of the Dead-level inclusions, and that’s okay. Not everything needs to be powerful reprints. I could wish for more iconic scenes, like the hallway, but I get what they are going for. It’s also okay that they went for one set with Slimer in 1984, and then one set with The Real Ghostbusters, the animated version. (Ever wanted to know why it wasn’t called just ‘Ghostbusters’ as the movie was? Do you remember some show with a ghost-faced car and a giant talking gorilla? Here’s the explainer you want.) They are trying to tap a wide net of nostalgia, adding a Chucky drop that I’ll address next week when I go through the drop set by set.

The core point here is that it’s okay if the IP of a drop ‘isn’t for you’ because they aren’t trying to make each one be for everyone. They are casting a wide net and eventually they will get to the things you like. Slimer represents one of their favorite things to do lately: Choose a commander, give that commander sweet art, and then add in several cards that are popular in that commander’s deck. Sometimes that’s an IP of Ghostbusters for The Mimeoplasm. Sometimes that’s a bubble-lettered Zaxara, the Exemplary and a bunch of Hydra accessories. 

Strong IP means that the cards can be weak and people buy the cards just to be collectors, not as much for the playing. I know I have a binder just for SL leftovers that I couldn’t fit into a deck, and flipping through those pages makes me happy.

The core lesson, though, is simple: The IP has to be evaluated on its own merits, not just through the lens of your own enjoyment. James and I talked about the D&D superdrop before it landed, and we thought that the Astarion and Karlach drops were solid, if not great. We did not give proper respect to the number of people who love these characters, and they caused the drops to sell out quite rapidly. 

To put it another way, this doesn’t have to be for you, it just has to be for enough people. Creepshow was a little too niche and hasn’t popped off. Evil Dead, Princess Bride, those are much more widely loved and their prices have gone up. 

I’m going to make purchases as though Ghostbusters will sell out quickly, and I encourage you to do the same.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Casual Fridays

What to Preorder and What to Avoid from Duskmourn

With Duskmourn: House of Horror fully revealed, there’s a lot to talk about. We’ve got new Commanders, new mechanics, and a whole lot of interest. We’ve got just about two months until Foundations is out, and while I’ll be curious to see who switches over on packs, I think Duskmourn will end up like Bloomburrow, getting an abbreviated time on its own in the spotlight. 

So with that in mind, I want to look at some of the cards that I think have real potential to go up from their preorder prices, and which I want to stay the hell away from.

Two caveats before we get into the numbers: First, there’s still two weeks till the official release, and that will include a few days where it’s Arena legal. Prereleases haven’t happened yet, and not every store or company can do preorder pricing. These are not licked-in numbers. Second, almost everything drops from preorder prices, and while I’ll explain my logic, these are swings at the fences. Be kind.

Duskmourn Commander Cards – In a Collector Booster, you’ll have a slot just for the DSC cards, and 81.9% of the times, you’ll open one of the 27 nonfoil EA cards.That gives you a roughly 3% chance to open a specific card you want, or an average of 33 Collector Boosters to snag the one you desire.These will be one of the easiest pulls from CBs.

Notably, the five DSC rooms are only available by buying and opening a sealed Commander deck, they don’t show up in the Collector Boosters at all. If any of those five cards get popular, watch out as they will climb in price quite quickly.

Ancient Cellarspawn (current preorder price $10, and $12 for EA versions)

This is one of my picks for the set, but I can’t recommend getting in at this price. There are a lot of decks that can use this, including everything that wants to pay life, to pitch, to Plot, and to Cascade. Legacy would love this card, especially pitching a Force of Will and adding 5 damage to the opponent. There’s only a couple of Commander decks that can play this with Cascade (Abbadon, Yidris) but free spells is a mechanic that Wizards has been leaning on. 

It’s even got me thinking that I’d add it to The Ur-Dragon, but really, adding one damage to my Dragon spells isn’t worth it.

It’s preordering for $10-$12, but the EA price should come down some and in a few weeks I’ll be ready to buy. 

Sadistic Shell Game ($4.50 EA/$8 regular) – The TCG prices are heavily skewed based off of who’s allowed to post preorder pricing. Folks who preorder are the ones who want the card ASAP, don’t care what it costs, and upgrade every deck with every set. It’s a lot of work and a lot of money, but that’s where we are at. 

The Shell Game is a fantastic card, and as a player used to casting Druid of Purification, let me tell you that this mechanic is busted as hell. If you’re the Archenemy, they will band together and all pick a creature that’s worthless, then you get the one that needs to go. If it’s still more free-for-all, the Game is even better because they pick first! It’s a lot of fun and you should play this card in most of your decks. The EA pricing is tempting but I’m going to be patient for a bit. It’ll drop, but not too far. The Druid is up over $6.

Duskmourn Main Set 

First of all, I think the Japanese-art Enduring cards are set to go off. We’ve got the confluence of three things Magic players have been shown to love: sweet foiling, cute animals, and hyper-rare drop rates. I did the math for you last week, but in English Collector Boosters, it’s going to take you approximately 1,428 CB packs to get just one Fractured Foil English language Enduring Courage. 

The Japanese-language versions are tougher pulls in English packs, but easier in Japanese packs. I don’t have enough information to know if that balances out yet. My inclination is that the Japanese-language cards will be priced less, even in Fractured Foil, but it won’t be too huge a gap.

The other Fractured Foil cards have potential, but cute animals are their own category in Magic. Please keep in mind that the English versions are the same degree of difficulty as the Textured Foils from OTP, but these look a lot more distinct.

Hedge Shredder feels like the card that the casual player will push up and up. That ability goes into so many decks, and will feel utterly broken in whichever deck gets it into play. I think that the demand and the combos will push the card back up to the $15 range soon, up from its current levels around $7 for the basics. So yes, I’m picking this to be the needle in the haystack, the card that rises above its preorder, or bounces quickly back up. If you get your personal copies in the $7 range I think you’re going to feel very good in a month.

Meathook Massacre II is not a supremely broken card. It is a good card, but the combination of mana cost and mana type make it difficult to use. I like the ability, and as a four mana enchantment it’s actually got a lot of utility. It’s definitely not one of the five best cards in the set, and the price will fall.

Exorcise foils should be a pretty good long-term card, as a premium piece of removal that will never be lacking for targets. I don’t like getting in right now at these prices but once the big operations have opened up their product, this is a great target to be an expensive uncommon.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Uncategorized

The Mana Math of Duskmourn: House of Horror

We have all the cards from Duskmourn: House of Horror, and it’s time we look at the numbers and the chances. Every set, we’re given some percentages, but Wizards doesn’t want to make it super clear how hard it is to open the most chase versions of cards. 

Lucky for you, I’ve gotten good at decoding what they are saying and turning it into useful information.

So let’s get into the statistics, and a couple of ways to buy cards that might be worth your time.

The Nightmare Bundle is one of the best add-ons we’ve seen in a while, and that’s all because of the cards that are added in. When you buy one of these for around $80 (currently, we’ll see if that price goes down), you get all of this, plus a deck box:

  • 6 Duskmourn: House of Horror Play Boosters 
  • 2 Duskmourn: House of Horror Collector Boosters 
  • 20 Traditional foil full-art lands
    • 4 Full-art manor lands of each basic land type 
  • 1 of 3 Borderless promo cards 
  • 1 of 3 Movie poster–themed cards 
  • 3 Double-sided movie posters 
  • 1 Glow-in-the-dark spindown die

I’m going to get into the Collector Boosters in a moment, but the real appeal is in the two ‘1 of 3’ cards. You’ll get one of the promos (Exhume, Damn, Crypt Ghast) and one of the movie poster-style cards (Goryo’s Vengeance, Living Death, Archon of Cruelty) always in foil. Those are all solid choices with good use rates, and while I’m not going to run out and buy bundles/cards immediately, I’m almost certainly going to snag a couple of personal copies early and spec buying six months from now.

In the Collector Boosters, there’s three slots with cards we’ll care about, the last three. Two of them are reserved for the Booster Fun nonfoils, and here’s your statistics for pulling one of these from either slot.

Card Frame/Treatment (# of options)Percent chance for any card of that category in one slotPercent chance for a specific card of that category in one slot# of packs to open one specific card from that category in one slot
Borderless Mythic Rare (6)4.00%0.67%150.00
Borderless Rare (10)14.40%1.44%69.44
Extended-Art Rare (13)18.80%1.45%69.15
Extended-Art Mythic Rare (5)3.60%0.72%138.89
Paranormal Rare (20)29.00%1.45%68.97
Paranormal Mythic Rare (2)1.50%0.75%133.33
Double Exposure Rare (12)17.40%1.45%68.97
Double Exposure Mythic Rare (5)3.30%0.66%151.52
Mirror Monsters Rare (4)5.80%1.45%68.97
Mirror Monster Mythic Rare (3)2.20%0.73%136.36

And remember, you have two of these slots, so you’ll have double the chances to open the card you want (or half the packs, depending on which set of data you like to work with) and this is the formulation they used in Bloomburrow. 

Then in the last slot, you can open anything that’s in the previous slots, just at a 85.9% rate. The other 14.1%, you get a chance at the truly rare drops, the Japan Showcase versions, the Double Exposure and the Special Guests. Don’t worry, I’ve got that table for you too.

Card Frame/Treatment (# of options)Percent chance for any card of that categoryPercent chance for a specific card of that category# of packs to open one specific card from that category
Traditional Foil Borderless Mythic Rare (6)3.44%0.57%174.62
Traditional Foil Borderless Rare (10)12.37%1.24%80.84
Traditional Foil Extended-Art Rare (13)16.15%1.24%80.50
Traditional Foil Extended-Art Mythic Rare (5)3.09%0.62%161.69
Traditional Foil Paranormal Rare (20)24.91%1.25%80.29
Traditional Foil Paranormal Mythic Rare (2)1.29%0.64%155.22
Traditional Foil Double Exposure Rare (12)14.95%1.25%80.29
Traditional Foil Double Exposure Mythic Rare (5)2.83%0.57%176.39
Traditional Foil Mirror Monsters Rare (4)4.98%1.25%80.29
Traditional Foil Mirror Monster Mythic Rare (3)1.89%0.63%158.75
Traditional Foil Traditional Foil Japan Showcase in English (10)6.00%0.60%166.67
Traditional Foil Japan Showcase in Japanese(10)3.00%0.30%333.33
Fracture Foil Japan Showcase in English (10)0.70%0.07%1428.57
Fracture Foil Japan Showcase in Japanese (10)0.30%0.03%3333.33
Textured Foil Double Exposure Mythic Rare (5)1.00%0.20%500.00
Traditional Foil Special Guest (10)3.10%0.31%322.58

Before you start freaking out about a non-serialized card being found in 1 out of every 3,333 packs (a drop rate close to that of the serialized Human Sol Ring from LOTR) we need to keep in mind that the Japanese-language versions of cards show up in roughly a third of English (and other language) Collector Boosters, but that’s the only language for the Japanese-language Collector Boosters. 

To put it another way, instead of a 0.3% chance of a Japanese-language Fracture Foil, you have a 1% chance instead if you’re opening a Japanese-language Collector Booster. And with there being ten options, you’ve got a 1/1000 chance, no longer a 1/3333 chance. 

So if these Japanese-language cards blow up to ridiculous values, you’re looking at the Japanese-language Collector Booster boxes being even better investments. 

It’s worth noting that the rest of the distribution here is in line with expectations from OTJ and BLB. The rarest pulls from the OTP subset, the Textured Foils, were 1 in 1500 packs. The Raised Foil Anime cards from BLB were just under 1 in 600, but those cards are cute furry animals and Magic players tend to spend pretty hard on those, whereas the OTP, even if in a lot of decks, those can be had relatively cheaply.

I’m also cognizant that we are entering a long period where Duskmourn might be the only set people care about. Bloomburrow was only given about two months where it’s being opened and getting all the attention. The next big set will be Foundations in November, but that will have a lot of reprints. We don’t have a date for Innistrad Remastered aside from it being in January, so we might get a glut of Duskmourn. It’s not for sure, though, and it might turn out that we love opening Foundations packs, so we’ll have to wait and see.

If you want to discuss my numbers, please feel free to reach out in the comments, on Twitter, or in the ProTrader Discord!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.