All posts by Jason Alt

Jason is the hardest working MTG Finance writer in the business. With a column appearing on Coolstufff Inc. in addition to MTG Price, he is also a member of the Brainstorm Brewery finance podcast and a writer and administrator for EDHREC's content website. Follow him on twitter @JasonEAlt

Flavor Town

Let me start out by saying that I’m very uncomfortable with how much Guy Fieri with a normal haircut looks like me. 10 years ago, looking anything like him was not a crime, but he’s so legitimately awful that he’s basically ruined even looking like him a little bit. He’s also made it so I say things like “Flavor Town” whenever I think of the word “flavor” because he ruins basically everything he touches. Seriously this guy is the worst.
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You know what isn’t the worst? Casual Magic players. When I say “casual” I’m not talking about EDH – not really. EDH can be casual but a lot of EDH players would take exception to being lumped into that group and rightfully so. There are EDH players that are just as competitive as the spikes in any other format. In the Competitive EDH subreddit just today I saw a guy unironically offer a primer on his “budget” Boros deck. What’s “budget” to them? $200 or less. “I want to play this fun format and do it on a budget but I’ll switch over to Yu Gi Oh before I play a budget deck that doesn’t get a Turn 1 Mana Crypt at least 14% of the time! I’m on a budget, not a savage.”

It gets so much more casual than EDH players. Some finance advice I used to give back when trading wasn’t entirely killed by every jackass installing a cellphone app that makes every trade take an extra 10 minute while they type every card in then try to get an internet signal in a gigantic convention center thinking they can’t be sharked when they can totally still be sharked, was to find casual players where they live. Smaller LGS locations in your area. Community Colleges. Their home kitchen tables. Actually, that last one is a little tough. You can just knock on every door in town hoping to find a game in progress but your odds off success are going to be really low. I used to have a Craigslist ad looking for casual Magic players but after one too many unsolicited dicktures, I took the ad down. The point is, once you find casual players, you should trade with them because it’s literally the best.

I Feel Like This Will Get You On a Tangent, but Why Trade With Casuals?

Because the stuff they value is unlike anything other groups value, the way they value it is unlike any way other groups value it and they’re always happy with every trade. You could pull a casual player’s pants down for $50 on a trade and they will do a cartwheel for joy and you will feel bad for ripping them off and you’ll feel even worse for not being as happy as they are. Don’t rip people off. It’s not worth it and you don’t even need to do it. If a casual player is happy to trade you a Verdant Catacombs for a Ludevic’s Test Subject, why not give him a Verdant Catacombs worth of weird octopus crap? It’s clogging up your binder and you’ll make his entire day.

Now this is not to say all casual players are durdles or don’t trade cards by monetary value or that they’re easy marks or anything derogatory. The simple truth is that people who play Magic casually have more fun that you ever will because the things you have been conditioned to think are important don’t matter to them for the most part. Their octopus and sea monster deck only has to be good enough to beat their friend’s Thallid deck roughly 50% of the time.

There are people out there who don’t quite understand why everyone acts like Tarmogoyf is such a good card. Find that guy. Spend time with that guy. He will teach you how to enjoy building decks and playing for no prizes. He’ll teach you to enjoy this children’s card game that you have ruined for yourself by treating it like a commodities market, you cynical, money-hungry fun-hater.

Casual players by different cards and they buy the same cards differently when compared with an EDH player. I’m not saying that they buy differently because they bust hella packs at Walmart trying to get a card instead of paying a quarter as much money and just buying the card on TCG Player although that does happen. I’m not saying they say “I went to BOTH card stores in town and neither one had it. Now what am I supposed to do?” although that does happen. I just mean they tend to buy playsets of cards and that means cards with casual appeal can spike four times quicker than a card with equivalent EDH appeal only. That’s fairly obvious, but it’s worth reminding ourselves of every once in a while because while it seems trivial that people buying cards four at a time can spike a card four times faster, we don’t always stop to consider which cards can shoot up in price on this principle. We should. When you consider how easy these things are to see coming sometimes, we really, really should.

What do Casual Players Like?

First of all, casual players like slow cards. Until EDH became a thing and insane mana ramping plus people leaving each other alone for 5+ turns became a thing, casual players were the only ones playing slow enough game for big, huge durdly creatures to hit the battlefield. You’re going to die to 4 tokens and a Hellrider on turn 5 with that Palladia Mors still in hand at FNM but at home on the kitchen table, he’ll live long enough to get suited up with all 4 of your Armadillo Cloaks before you decide to attack someone with him.

Again, casual players aren’t all durdles but that isn’t to say they don’t like durdle cards. I mean, we as EDH players like durdle cards, too so let’s not pretend we can pass value judgments. If it weren’t for EDH and casual, only like 100 Magic cards would be worth money and the rest would be junk. It’s not Modern players making Glimpse the Unthinkable do this.

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Which brings me to the next thing casual players love – Mill.

Mill’s not great in EDH. Liiiiiiike at all. I have seen some pretty funny Phenax mill decks with cards like Eater of the Dead but for the most part, you don’t want your opponent starting out at 92 life, I don’t care if your damage spells do 10. Mill cards are expensive, though. Really expensive. Before Modern Masters, Mind Funeral was actual dollars. Why is that? Well, it’s not EDH players doing it and it’s not competitive players doing it. Who does that leave? Lots of unsleeved copies of Glimpse the Unthinkable are getting pulled off of a topdeck and getting pointed at 73 card decks. Milling is fun but it’s not very often all that competitive. Playing Magic for fun like we should all be doing but refuse to means you get to play fun cards like Glimpse the Unthinkable and even if you’re a casual player that doesn’t mean you’re a poor. They get a few bucks together and they buy Glimps the Unthinkable and it does the Unthinkable. It ends up worth more money than Glare of Subdual and Concerted Effort and Doubling Season and all of the cards that EDH players think are so much better. EDH can do a lot of things, but it can’t make this card nuts. But casual can.

Finally, casual players love tribal stuff. EDH players do, too, but a casual player won’t let a little thing like “There’s no Legendary creature that buffs these guys” stop them from building the deck. Casual players didn’t wait for General Tazri to come out to build an ally deck. Oh you best believe they had an ally deck.

How does knowing this help us get ahead of spikes? Well sometimes playability is only half the battle. Sometimes cards go up strictly based on their flavor. Yes, I waited 1300 words to get to my thesis. Chill, you had an enjoyable journey so far.

I Has a Flavor

Two players see the same card. We’ll call the first player “player C” because he’s a competitive player. Player C looks at this card and he’s blown away by its playability.

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“Holy zombie balls,” says player C, “this card is busted. You can recur him for as cheap as Gravecrawler without the requirement to have other zombies in play. And you can bring back other zombies, too? This is amazing. I want this in a dredge shell, or maybe paired with Goblin Bombardment in something. This is going to be $20+ easy.” Player C is understandably very excited by this card and he saw everything he wanted to see.

Another player is casual so let’s call him “player C” because he’s a casual player. Player C says “Do you see the background of this card? It’s clearly a few minutes after the art from Endless Ranks of the Dead! The zombies are all climbing into the church and this one is leading the way! How cool is that, closing the loop on this years later? Did they plan it, or did they revisit the old art when they got the new assignment?” Player C is very excited because the art from another card is represented on this one. Something curious happens.

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The price of a card that isn’t Standard legal starts to climb and it’s in no small part due to people being reminded that it’s a card because a new card has its art on it. It may be a bit of an oversimplification to say the art connection is the sole impetus for the increase but it’s a factor. EDH zombie decks aren’t getting much so far from the spoilers we’ve seen so there’s no real reason EDH players are going to run out and  buy a ton of copies of this. Yet the price jumped and it hit a historical high and this card isn’t done growing yet. I think Army of the Damned showed how devastating a reprint can be for a card like this, but I think the reprint risk is lower here and even though EDH players aren’t going to make Endless Ranks climb, casual players are not done spiking this.

So how do we get ahead of what’s going to go up? It’s fairly simple. You already know what casual players like because there is a casual player in the heart of us all. Vampires are in this set, so any older relevant vampires are worth a look. Do we have a vampire lord? We do?

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And it’s at a historic low? Will the non-foil versions be held down by the price of the foil media inserts? Maybe. But casual cards tend to not follow traditional rules and usually whichever copy is chepest sells best. Am I investing a ton of money into Nocturnus? No, I tend to speculate on EDH cards. But this isn’t exactly a tough spike to predict, is it? New Vampires means old ones get a look. Old ones like this other one, also.

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Casual players like good cards, guys. That’s what we need to remember. Captivating Vampire is a good card. Vampire Nocturnus is a good card. No one is really playing those cards because they don’t have much of a home in EDH, Standard, Modern, Legacy or Vintage. Even though I listed basically all of the formats, casual isn’t a format, it’s a lifestyle. This lifestyle is all about spiking Captivating Vampire up to $10 while everyone was distracted debating what a second Modern Masters printing was going to do to the price of Tarmogoyf.

Look at spirits. Vampires. Werewolves. Zombies. Chances are there are a few cards with upside. While I don’t think EDH is a primary driver here and I cautioned against throwing too much money at Mayor of Avabruck last week because we can’t really quantify how popular werewolves are going to be using tools like EDHREC, there are cards that historically go into casual decks and it would be silly if we ignored casual as a format just because it isn’t one.

Keep your eyes peeled for cards like Immerwolf and Drogskol Captain moving forward. If you made money on Drogskol Captain in 2011, thank Jon Finkel. If you make money on it in 2016, thank a casual player. They’re the only ones who even get on the bus to Flavortown anymore.

Brainstorm Brewery #185 – The One Corbin Didn’t Listen To

The gang is joined by resident 5th Host Ray Perez Jr. (@rayfuturepro) to talk about Modern, how much Ray doesn’t like Modern, what could get unbanned in Modern, what will get banned in Modern, which GPs and PT events Ray will go to if it means playing Modern and Modern. It felt like that was all we talked about but we did like 90 minutes on this one to make up for not having a show last week. Oh, and no Corbin, so that’s a bonus [ed note: Not* a bonus]. We talked about him but it got dirty so that will likely end up on After Hours. Just listen to the episode already.

 

  • Ray Perez Jr. is our guest (@rayfuturepro)
  • Modern
  • SOI spoiler discussion
  • We are getting a preview card!
  • Pick of the WEEEEEEEK
  • Support our Patreon! DO IT. You know this cast makes you more than $1 a week
  • Need to contact us? Hit up BrainstormBrew@gmail.com

 

Contact Us!

Brainstorm Brewery Website – E-mail – Twitter Facebook RSS iTunes Stitcher

Ryan Bushard – E-mail – Twitter Facebook

Corbin Hosler – E-mail – Twitter Facebook MTGPrice

Jason E Alt – E-mail – Twitter FacebookMTGPrice

Marcel White – E-mail – Twitter

Shadows Over Innistrad Spoiler Coverage

Jason Alt – Wizards don’t likes it when you calls ’em spoilers no more. They’s “previews” now.

I don’t care, I’m still calling it “Spoiler” coverage and I’m still going to be mostly a bummer about a lot of the cards. Was I wrong to be a bummer last time? Let’s look at the cards from the last set that were over $2. The first column is the retail price calculated using our fair trade price algorithm and the second column is highest buylist price.

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Hissing Quagmire, Sea Gate Wreckage, Sphinx of the Final Word and Inverter of Truth are all, glaringly, under $2.

Will Shadows sell better than Oath? So far we haven’t seen a land cycle spoiled to make us think so, I haven’t heard they’re doing Expeditions or anything like it and the set is still largely shrouded in mystery. However, the mythics we’ve seen are pretty strong and we saw a preorder non-mythic rare hit $15. Anything is possible and Innistrad is a popular place to revisit. Let’s get busy, shall we?

Geier Reach Bandit/Vildin-Pack Alpha

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Jason Alt – This is very good. Skip the boring front side of your werewolves if you want. However, being good but narrow doesn’t always translate into being playable. I don’t think this is playable. And absent a Legendart RG werewolf, I don’t see this getting above bulk in the near-term.

DJ Johnson – I think this settles at slightly higher than bulk, similarly to how Mayor of Avabruck settled at slightly higher than bulk for like 5 years before blowing me out of the water and making me regret not buying those 50 copies that I had in my TCG cart at $1.50. Salt Marshes aside, I think this hangs out in the $1 box.

Open the Armory

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Jason Alt – If you’re looking at this card and thinking “This might be really good in EDH” I feel like you’re underestimating it a bit. I think you pay cash on foils of this. Really.

Ulrich’s Kindred

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Jason Alt – This card itself doesn’t matter, but it is a decent signal that there will be a Legendary RG werewolf in Eldrich Moon. Maybe it will be called Skeet Ulrich. People were holding off on Werewolf stuff, but if Endless Ranks of the Dead can go up because of its art, Werewolf cards could have upside not because of good logic but because of bad logic. Hey, money’s money, right?

Cryptolith Rite
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Jason Alt –  People are calling this a bad Earthcraft. Well who cares? Earthcraft is banned in Legacy. If we have an affordable version of a card that’s banned in Legacy that can be a second or a budget version of Earthcraft, don’t we jump on it? This is a $4 preorder, but I bet this approaches bulk before rebounding since Standard is unlikely to break this before supply outstrips demand initially.

DJ Johnson – This is a bulk rare in a month, but people would rather buy this over a $30 Earthcraft. While you can’t tap the creatures for mana the turn they come into play (the best part about earthcraft), people still buy Parallel Lives when they can’t afford Doubling Season. Easy $5 in a couple years, in my opinion.

Fork in the Road

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Jason Alt – All hail the Gitrog Monster’s preferred Farseek. Get foils and get them fast.

Weirding Wood

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Jason Alt – This seems like some format will find it useful. Foils will likely be dirt cheap and it doesn’t cost much to stock up in case of a hit. If you whiff, you whiff small and if you hit, you hit big. I like those bets.

Slayer’s Plate

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Jason Alt – I’m probably wrong, but I really like this card. I don’t think it will impact any formats and that’s unfortunate. This is going to be absolutely miserable to play against in Limited because it makes your smallest creature a threat, your biggest creature a monster and makes their removal spells give you a 5/3 to menace them with next turn. Probably a bulk rare.

DJ Johnson – Bulk rare that will rip your face off in Limited. Seriously, this thing seems almost impossible to race unless you’re already ahead or have a Shatter effect.

Wild-Field Scarecrow

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Jason Alt – I like this in foil. This is a Burnished Hart effect that also happens to be a Scarecrow which is good for Reaper King decks. There’s a lot to like here and I bet foils start out hella cheap.

DJ Johnson – This is a Burnished Hart that is actually nothing like Burnished Hart because it doesn’t put the lands into play. Foils will start out hella cheap and they’ll stay hella cheap.

Ever After

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Jason Alt – I can’t decide if this is a good Victimize or a bad Rise of the Dark Realms. Certainly people are excited about this but I bet this ends up approaching bulk before it rebounds, if it rebounds.

DJ Johnson – It’s a bad Rise of the Dark Realms.

Ulvenwald Hydra

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Jason Alt – A while back on Brainstorm Brewery we said hydras were always a good target because they go up in price eventually. Then WotC started putting a bunch of hydras in every block. This doesn’t even play like a hydra. This plays like a bad, too-fair Primeval Titan. I don’t care if Prime Time is banned in EDH, this isn’t the replacement you’re looking for. I don’t even like this at $4.

DJ Johnson – Are you guys excited for bulk hydra number 45? I’m glad Wotc listened to our calls about how we really needed a  hydra in this set, because we needed something to fill the hole in our hearts that appeared from not having a bulk rare dragon in the set, or any dragon at all.

From Under the Floorboards

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Jason Alt – This is a pretty sweet card. It’s a great mana sink and push comes to shove, if you can discard it, it ends up another drain life with serious upside. I’m not sure I want this at its presale price since I think it has room to go down, but it’s a fun card.

DJ Johnson – Bulk rare, but cute bulk rare. Sell these for quarters and don’t look back,

Silverfur Partisan – Again

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Jason Alt – I changed my mind – this card is the real deal. Brewing with it has been very productive. We’re going to lose a lot of good spells to target your creature with to rotation, but there is still plenty to target this with to punish them. This gets out of hand fast, and protecting it is worth it. Anything that boosts wolves ends the game quickly.

Howlpack Resurgence

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Jason Alt –EDH players will likely snap up the foils once Eldritch Moon gives us a Legendary Werewolf like I think it will and casuals will eat this up. This might be snaggable for free from draft chaff.

DJ Johnson – This is cute because it lets you pass the turn with your puppies and flip them while holding up a combat trick spell. It’s nothing special, but I think you pull them out of bulk anyway to sell them for quarters.

Stensia Masquerade

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Jason Alt – The extent to which Olivia Voldaren players are excited about this makes me pay attention. I still think it’s too narrow, though but I thought I’d mention it in case you see a foil or a free copy in draft chaff. Put both aside, I think. I will.

DJ Johnson – I tend to avoid paying three mana for aggressive enchantments that don’t give me an immediate damage output increase, but oh well. I think you’d rather just play more vampires.

The Gitrog Monster

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Jason Alt – Wow, they actually saved a super good spoiler for late. This card is so, so good. An EDH deck assembled itself in my mind as I read this, but that doesn’t mean this doesn’t get jammed in a ton of other decks like Meren. This draws cards, ramps, kills stuff and lets you sac lands so you can trigger Titania, Protector of Argoth. This makes Life from the Loam go up in price, potentially. This makes cycling lands draw you two cards. This is also a $32 playset pre-order and unless this can impact Standard, that’s too expensive. Good card but potentially disastrous spec.

DJ Johnson – Oh. My. God. You already know the Commander deck I’m excited about with this big, dumb, crazily powerful frog. Child of Alara needs this, but I can wait a couple of months to pick up my foil for cheap. This is my favorite card in the set by far, but that doesn’t mean you buy it. Wait until its’ $2-3 and then think about picking up copies, because I do think it could actually see Standard play.

Seasons Past
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Jason Alt – As good as this is, Green Mythics like Praetor’s Counsel took years to hit $4 before a reprint neutered the growth, and The Great Aurora is on its way to being almost $1 if it grows some more.  I like the card but I’m not about to run out and buy any. This seems to be a card you wait on.

DJ Johnson – Nooooope. I don’t even think you want to wait on this card. Bulk mythic will be a bulk mythic forever.

Scourge Wolf

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Jason Alt – This card is very, very strong. I worry that it doesn’t have a deck and that it’s going to run into 2/3 creatures that stuff it. Delirium is a lot of work to have to get to if you want to make your 2/2 trade with a 2/3. If you can keep the ground clear by burning their dudes with instants and sorceries, you have a good recipe for this doing some serious work, especially with cards that boost power and toughness. This likely gets tried out and with it preselling for $3, you could potentially make some money if this hits. Monastery Swiftspear was $3 and if this is that ubiquitous, this is Siege Rhino money. The low price says not a lot of people are betting on that. These same people spent all day buying Pain Seer until it sold out over and over. Maybe $15 Thing in the Ice and $3 Scourge Wolf are both super wrong.

Reddit Spikes are pretty bearish for the same reasons I listed.

DJ Johnson – Delirium seems like it would be a giant pain to secure early on, especially in the mono red shell this card asks for. Instant, Sorcery, and Creature are the obviously easy ones to hit but with no fetchlands the last card type becomes a lot harder. Planeswalker? Artifact? I’m not too hyped. Remember Ash Zealot had haste and also punished them for playing Unburial Rites. I’m not excited to buy in at $3.

Prized Amalgam

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Jason Alt – This is a great card no one seems to want. Dredge decks barely have room for 3 Ichorid and Ichorid doesn’t come into play tapped. Standard doesn’t have enough ways to trigger this and bring it back. EDH zombie decks don’t love having to have blue in them although there are a ton of ways to get this back potentially triggering Warstorm Surge and getting sacced to Goblin Bombardment or something. This could be a combo card, but no one is excited.

Spikes don’t care.

Neither do the EDH players.

DJ Johnson – Man, I really want this to be good in Modern with Bloodgast. I know that I’m that guy who calls 90% of the set garbage and bulk, but is this really too slow to combo with stuff like Fatestitcher, Gravecrawler, Bloodghast, and Vengevine? Probably, considering it comes in tapped at the end of the turn, but still. It does have the ability to block, which most of these cards don’t have the luxury of doing. I’m just saying out of all the bulk rares in the set, this is the one that I want to own 100 copies of just in case.

Inexorable Mass

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Creature – Ooze
Delirium – Whenever Inexorable Mass attacks and there are at least four card types among cards in your graveyard, put a 3/3 green Ooze creature token onto the battlefield tapped and attacking.

Jason Alt – There are ooze creatures that trigger on attack that made your opponents feel very bad to have to deal with. This is not that card. Being forced to both have delirium and swing it into potentially unsafe situations for it to do anything means the card is pretty decent but not good enough for Standard and too cute to be worth money. If it did something when it split or when it died, maybe.

Spikes call it “Standard unplayable”

DJ Johnson – I miss the days of Predator Ooze with Ulvenwald Tracker. Those were some good days to be an Ooze, considering it was indestructible and could swing into anything. The most useful part about this card is getting a bunch of karma on Reddit for being the guy to find out that there’s a portrait of Ancestral Recall in the background picture frame. Go ahead, find it. I’ll wait.

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Creature – Zombie Horror
Skulk (This creature can’t be blocked by creatures with greater power.)

At the beginning of your upkeep, you may discard your hand. If you do, draw that many cards.

Jason Alt – I literally don’t know what to make of this card. It has skulk but doesn’t have to hit them. I want to say this is completely unplayable but it’s pre-selling for $4.50. Standard doesn’t like this at all.

This is a lot better in EDH. You want this in Grimgrin, The Mimeoplasm, Dralnu – the list is kind of a long one. I don’t think EDH will make $5 stick, but this isn’t totally worthless. I like the effect a lot and I’ll be trading for copies of this when the price is reasonable in a few months.

DJ Johnson – Regardless of the numerous appendages, I don’t think this has the legs for Standard play. You can wait until they’re like $1 or so and then buy in if you really think this Zombie Horror is going anywhere. It goes in a ton of different Zombie Commander lists, but we all know that doesn’t earn it a price tag. Remember how Prophet of Kruphix was $5 for being bannably good? Me either.

“Unplayable”

“Replacing Call to the Kindred”

Altered Ego

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Jason Alt – This is clunky for Standard although it can just be a 4 mana clone if you want. I’m more worried about this lacking a deck than I am about its power level but in Standard, both or either can be a death sentence. This may be relegate to EDH which won’t help its price much. I imagine every Standard deck running Clever Impersonator and also green will run this.

DJ Johnson – I don’t see this coming into Standard whatsoever. “Can’t be countered” is kind of irrelevant when all the counterspells are garbage, and paying sixteen mana for a clone is for the cool Commander kids like me (I won’t play this card, but Jason probably will). The last time we had a good clone was the dynamic duo of Phyrexian Metamorph and Phantasmal Image, neither of which costed four mana. Pass.

Fevered Visions

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Jason Alt – This was Brainstorm Brewery’s preview card so it’s obviously the best card in the set. I immediately saw this as a sweet Nekusar inclusion – not all Howling Mines let you draw first and Lightning Bolt your opponent with Nekusar out. Other applications seem to be less forthcoming. I love this card and love that we got to preview and love how the art is going to look foil but I don’t think you preorder this unless someone breaks it.

DJ Johnson – Since Nekusar literally builds itself and you have room for about four personal choices throughout the entire list, I’m not sure this makes the cut. No salt at all, nope. None here. I’m pretty sure this is avoids bulk rare status, but just barely. Howling Mine variants do a pretty good job of hanging by a thread at the $1-2 bin.

Invocation of St. Traft

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Jason Alt – I don’t like this card nearly as much as everyone else. Standard players are begging to eat a fat Reflector Mage in their dome. Modern players aren’t going to want to load up their Geist decks with these since Geist is already a great Geist. EDH players are excited, but I’m not entirely sure why. Bruna is basically a Traumatize Combo deck, Zur is basically a control deck and Narset is a Time Warp deck. I don’t think the four damage matters in any of those decks, frankly. It’s cool to slap this on a hexproof dude, but I just don’t think it’s going to be as good in EDH as people think. They could have been playing Moonsilver Spear this whole time and most of them weren’t. Spear is more expensive, true, but the angel token stays in play with Spear, the equipment stays out of the creature dies and the spear can go in any color deck.

Reddit spikes seems as bearish as I am.

DJ Johnson – Geist of Saint Traft was insane because he came with a 2/2 body and was difficult to remove from the board. You could suit him up with Spectral Flight and put your opponent on a three turn clock, and punish anyone paying life for Phyrexian mana. You have to already find a hexproof guy to put this on if you don’t want to be blown out of the water, so I’m staying away. It’s a cool design, but that doesn’t bring in the cash dollars.

Triskaidekaphobia

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Jason Alt – See if you can find all 13 instances of 13 in the art. Or talk to girls. Generally those two groups don’t overlap much.

Flavor-wise this card is amazing, but I don’t think it will be very effective. It’s a really bad Siege card. I do love cards that say “win the game” but it seems like they print these life total cards only when there are painlands in the format which sucks. I hated not being able to Hidetsugu’s Second Rite people at 10 because they had a Battlefield Forge. With painlands in the format for now, it sucks that we don’t get to use this to its best effect. Don’t build around this, but definitely laugh at how awesome and flavorful this card is. If it were any cooler, it would have been in M15 and would have been designed by the guys from Penny Arcade.

DJ Johnson – Three cheers for flavor! Then ten more cheers, while wearing garlic and avoiding stepping on sidewalk cracks. I can’t wait to find that guy who’s goal is to collect every copy of these, so I can tell him what an idiot he is. You’re supposed to collect thirteen non-foils, thirteen foils, thirteen Russian ones, thirteen Japanese ones… thirteen sets of thirteen different languages and foilings. You get the point. On the plus side, it’ll probably be a bulk rare.

Hanweir Militia Captain/Westvale Cult Leader

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Jason Alt – So we have a militia captain with literally no leadership skills? No granting of combat bonuses to other soldiers? No gifting of first strike or vigilance? No casting cost reduction? An actual Grizzly Bear would do the exact same job leading this militia. This is just a jackass carrying an AR-15 in a Walmart because “Muh Freedom” and doesn’t get anything done until you have a LOT of creatures at which point it turns into a cult leader and starts getting things accomplished. Being a 4/4 that farts out dudes that grow the cult leader is a pretty solid way to wrap the game up, especially if the tokens all get some sort of bonus (no thanks to their militia captain who is holed up inside a National Park begging for snacks) and EDH players like this, but I am not sure if this can impact Standard and therefore be worth it financially.

DJ Johnson – Her other side makes 1/1 BW Clerics, but I don’t think the Cleric deck wants a card this slow. Maybe it does. Do I look like the guy playing BW Clerics? No, I’m the guy playing Child of Alara Lands. Pay attention. I don’t think Standard wants Grizzly Bears that flip into Scion of the Wild. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I highly doubt you cast this in Standard.

Avacyn’s Judgment

avacynsjudgment

Jason Alt – Given the choice between making this distribute 3 damage and be too good and distribute 2 damage and probably not be great, they chose to go with the weaker version. A slower Twin Bolt, this can potentially be a great card if you can easily discard it, which may not actually be that easy. Spikey players are pretty excited, though, and the card is pre-selling for $5 which is the price it would cap out at unless it’s much better than anyone thinks. I’m not jazzed about $20 playsets of this. I seem to remember people thinking Aurelia’s Fury was going to be a $40 card and it ended up worth 40 cents, so I’m staying far away.

DJ Johnson– Wizards does remember making Forked Bolt at uncommon, right? You have to cast this for madness if you don’t want to feel terrible. Don’t think this is Bonfire, because it’s not anything close. At least the art is sweet, so you can trade it off to that Angel person who is going to go crazy this set trying to collect all of the angels and angel accessories.

The spikes weigh in.

Goldnight Castigator

goldnightcastigator

Jason Alt – A fun thing to do with this is use Zedruu or Bazaar Trader to donate this. An unfun thing to do is open a booster pack with this as your mythic.

I take that back, this is probably good enough to wreck people in Limited before they can get you on the swingback, but I wouldn’t risk it. Being at 10 life is scary when this is a 5 turn clock. This is interesting design but I don’t think it’s powerful enough in your favor to mitigate the drawbacks and this shouldn’t be mythic.

Spikey players call this a bad Thunderbreak Regent

These are like $6 on eBay. I’m not paying $6 for a bad Thunderbreak Regent.

DJ Johnson – Maybe this sees play out of the sideboard of the Red deck versus control where you don’t expect to get cracked in the side of the head by the opposing army. This seems really bad in multiples, which is certainly an odd characteristic for a four mana mythic red angel. I’m not paying $6 for this card, and neither should you. Seems like a $2-3 card, and that’s being generous. Standard has a lot of creatures, and this is bad against creatures.

Sin Prodder

sinprodder

DJ Johnson Welp. Pack it up boys and girls, we had a good run. Magic is officially over. Anytime a young child runs up to their parents and says that they want to learn the game, THIS is the art that the parent will reference as to why this game should be illegal in the good ol’ Christian ‘nation of ‘MURICA. Time to fire sell everything, it’s the end of the game as we know it.

Anyway, this actually seems strong in the mono-red shell that will probably pop up in the early weeks of Standard. That aggressive shell will compete with Vampires, and this was obviously too strong to smack with the Vampire creature type. I don’t like it at a $5 pre-order, but you do what you want. Seems like a $2-3 card to me a month from now…. is there an echo in here?

Jason Alt – No one knows what this card does. I’m serious. There is so much confusion so many places and I’m so sleep-deprived because of my infant Planeswalker that I have no idea what this card does. I keep staring at it. I think this is a hard-to-block creature that reveals a card on your upkeep. If it’s a land, they can make you bin it and if it’s a Fiery Temper they can either take 3 to make you bin it or let you draw it and take 3. Am I reading this card right? It seems pretty good. It’s not Dark Confidant, but in a red deck where you’re burning their face it can put them between a rock and a hard place. I’m calling this Browbeat Confidant. Vexing Devil 2.0. I don’t know what to make of it, honestly.

Reddit spikes are split on this card which means half of them are wrong. When people can’t agree, two things happen. One, they will all pretend they always thought whatever the general concensus ends up being. Nobody ever though Tasigur wouldn’t be a good card to hear them tell it. Everyone knew Goblin Rabblemaster and Abbot of Keral Keep were insane from the second they were spoiled. To hear them tell it. The other thing is that sometimes the card is underpriced. Either I don’t understand how this card works, or this is  going to sometimes draw you extra cards your opponent can’t afford to stop you from drawing and in a red deck, you can take advantage of that. With my luck, they’ll deny me burn topdecks and I’ll draw nothing but land for the turn. Still, I think at $7 it has very little upside even if it’s better than I think it is.

Tireless Tracker

tirelesstracker

DJ Johnson – I got excited when I saw landfall, and I’m actually considering finding a spot for this in my Child of Alara Commander deck. I make a lot of mana, so this could very easily end up replacing Seer’s Sundial considering I can Green Sun for it. Oh, right. I have to talk about Standard, or something like that. Bulk rare. If you’re sacrificing Clues in Standard, something went horribly wrong and you’re probably not a good enough investigator to find out why.

Jason Alt – I like this in a deck like Shattergang Brothers where you can sac the clue token to its ability to make everyone sac an artifact and then you grow this guy. But then I’d have to take a card out of the deck. I don’t want to do that. Bulk.

Port Town and the other 4 allied lands

porttown

DJ Johnson – So we finally got our rare cycle, and it appears that we get allied colors this time around. You have to show another basic (or BFZ) land for these to hang around untapped, which means getting a two-land hand of Port Towns is absolutely garbage unless you rip a basic off the top. Whatever these are pre-ordering at, they’re almost certainly going to drop a bit. However, that cost is mitigated slightly by the fact they’re dual lands. Buying lands for use over the next year and a half is very rarely a bad move…

Jason Alt – I bet their pre-order price is too high, but barely. Buy these to play with if you need them, don’t if you don’t. That’s boring, but so are these lands.

Corrupted Tombstone

corruptedtombstone

Corrupted Tombstone enters the battlefield tapped.

T: Choose a card in your graveyard. Add one mana of that card’s color to your mana pool.

Jason Alt – This is worse than Fellwar Stone early in the game although it’s almost always better later. Graveyard wipe does shut this off, though, and that sucks. The real puzzle here is why this is Rare. I guess this would be too good for Limited at Uncommon? This isn’t a card I’m excited about and I’m and EDH player. If an EDH player isn’t excited about a mana rock, who will be? This reminds me of Vessel of Endless Rest. Not a lot to love, here.

DJ Johnson – Ugh. I really do not want to open this at rare. I mean, I don’t want to open packs at all unless I’m drafting, but even then this seems like a kick in the nuts. Bulkiest of bulk rares, read no more.

Burn From Within

burnfromwithin

Sorcery
Burn from Within deals X damage to target creature or player. If a creature is dealt damage this way, it loses indestructible until end of turn. If that creature would die this turn, exile it instead.

Jason Alt – This is a really expensive way to get rid of a creature. This is solid in Limited, and fireballs with upside are cool historically. This is also a way to kill gods in EDH so this has that going for it as well. Interesting card, but probably pretty bulky. I don’t like this at $4.

DJ Johnson – We’re at the point in spoiler season where most of the remaining cards will be bulk rares. That’s okay. The cycle of bulk and non-bulk continues. I find it kind of funny that this doesn’t prevent regeneration due to them phasing out that mechanic, so while it can take down a Darksteel Colossus it folds to a Krosan Warchief. This is way too expensive.

Engulf the Shore

engulftheshore

Jason Alt – Standard probably doesn’t want this since it forces you to go very deep on one color. EDH doesn’t want this because other cards do this so much better and you don’t play attenuated versions of good cards when you have a huge card pool. This is good in Limited, but that’s about it. Check the price graph for Whelming Wave, which, for the record, I think is much better than this card. Pass.

DJ Johnson – Another day, another dime. You want to play stuff like Cyclonic Rift over this in Commander, and spells like this haven’t seen Standard play since, well, Cyclonic Rift.

Thalia’s Lieutenant

thaliaslieutenant

Jason Alt – Is this Champion of the Parish 2.0? No, I don’t think so. While this interacts favorably with Eldrazi Displacer in a way that is super good if you have a ton of humans (and being mono-white means your splash color is colorless to get those Displacer triggers going. I realize this isn’t a real deck), lacking the “Turn 1 champion, turn 2 Gather the Townsfolk” start that made Champion of the Parish nutty hurts this card. I am not super sure what it will do, but tokens buff this and this buffs tokens right back. That could be good. I don’t know about this as  $10 playset preordered, though. This has potential and I want to like it more. I just feel like there is as much downside as upside at $2.50. If this “hits” it’s a $5 card. If it “misses” it’s bulk. Hard to know. If you like this card and are brewing sauce with it, you could double up, based on the price of Champion of the Parish.

Reddit spikes want to play this in CoCo humans.

DJ Johnson  – People smarter than me like this card, but other people smarter than me hate it and think it’s a bulk rare. While I’m going to hold off on my giant “BULK” stamp for now, I don’t think you want to buy in at $10 a playset, unless you have your Modern Humans brew ready and waiting. This one could go either way folks, but you know that my money is staying in my wallet and being saved for collections.

Welcome to the Fold

welcometothefold

Jason Alt – I am evaluating this in terms of “I don’t want to cast this not for madness” rather than “madness gives this upside” and that may be wrong, but I am basing how I see Standard developing on that premise. I don’t like this as a really weak Domestication, Domestication being a card that never really saw play. This is a bulk rare to me, and it gets even worse in formats like EDH where so many excellent alternatives outshine it.

DJ Johnson- I feel like this falls into the same camp as the previous bad Evacuation, where it’s not going to cut in in either Standard or Commander. Bulk rare life it is, but I don’t think I want to completely eliminate the possibility of this seeing play as a sideboard card in Standard during its’ tenure. I don’t hate trading for these at dimes, but then again I don’t hate anyone who trades for bulk rares at dimes because those people are smart.

Asylum Visitor

asylumvisitor

Jason Alt – This is only pre-ordering for $5, otherwise known as “40% of Pain Seer” which means this is at last looked at through the lens of past regret. I think this is much better than Pain Seer in a lot of ways, and if you’re going hard at making them pitch their mitt, this could draw you a lot of cards. You’re also a Grafted Skullcap deck with hellbent strategies, but you need a constant pitch outlet in case you draw two lands. This having madness is perfect with that strategy because you can pitch your cards with abandon and not have to worry about playing this on curve.

The 3/1 instead of the 2/1 on Dark Confidant is pure gravy. This is a tricky card to play and tricky means narrow and narrow means it’s hard for this to get above $5, but at least the card draw on creatures is this “tough to get but worth it” rather than “what if you draw and extra card but your opponent draws two cards and gains 5 life a turn?” trend we’ve seen lately. You can’t make money pre-ordering this at $5 unless it’s the next Siege Rhino. Is it? I doubt that.

DJ Johnson – I don’t like pre-ordering this at $5. That said, I do think it sees play in Standard at some point over the next 18 months and you could just lock in your playset right now without losing too much money. Maybe it hits $10 release weekend if Vampires is the nuts, but Wotc knows how to tempter their tribal since Lorwyn. I think this settles at the $2-3 spot a month from now.

Second Harvest

secondharvest

This is probably a bulk rare. That said, how cool is this card? Every EDH player wants to do a million amazing things with this. In standard, maybe you get some extra wolf or zombie tokens and maybe you make a mess of clue tokens. In EDH this is nutter butters. Imagine casting this in a Riku deck and using Riku to copy it. Sweet Jesus. Imagine this with Doubling Season, Parallel Lives, Seance, Trostani, Progenitor Mimic… the list is a long one. This card is stupid good. Is it enough to make this a buck or two? I don’t think it is in the short term. Any time you wonder how an EDH card will fare out of the gate, remember that Dictate of Erebos hit bulk and I had a year to scoop them for nothing and fill a big box up. Don’t pre-order.

Congratulations to Josh Lee Kwai and Jimmy Wong from the Command Zone on getting this as their preview card. I promise I wasn’t extra kind to this card because I like those guys.

DJ Johnson – While this is sweet, it does seem kinda win-more. I’ll be the voice of reason to temper Jason’s enthusiasm, and remind you that the Token Commander deck only has 99 slots, and I’m not sure this goes in every single list. Does it go in Rhys? Probably, but I don’t think it gets jam packed as often as Doubling Season and Parallel Lives. Either way, you have plenty of time to pick these up at bulk rares before it starts its’ climb to $3.

Confirmed Suspicions

confirmedsuspicions

Counter target spell.

Investigate three times. (Put a colorless Clue artifact token onto the battlefield with “2, Sacrifice this artifact: Draw a card.”)

Jason Alt – Investigate all you want, I’m not paying 5 mana for a damn counterspell, especially if I have to pay a bunch of mana later to draw. Bulk rare.

DJ Johnson- In three weeks, my suspicions of this being a bulk rare will be confirmed. AM I LSV YET???

Eternal Vigil

eternalvigil

Non-token creatures you control gain +1/+1 and vigilance.

Jason Alt – Adding vigilance is cool, but this won’t interact with this set nearly as much as Intangible Virtue interacted with Lingering Souls to ruin block. This is an odd card in EDH since most of the decks that run Glorious Anthem run tokens. I think the non-token restriction makes this worse than Glorious Anthem and not close enough to it than we want to run both. I bet this is worth money. I bet it’s not worth pre-ordering, though.

DJ Johnson – I’m going to disagree with Jason here and call this a bulk rare. There are a billion options for anthems out there, and I don’t think you want one that doesn’t help out tokens. Don’t preorder this, and don’t throw them in a box expecting them to be worth anything either. Buuuuuuuuuuuuulk.

Behold the Beyond

beholdthebeyond

Jason Alt – How badly do you want to discard your hand? You’re enabling Delirium, I guess maybe, but you’re not enabling madness unless they reprint Basking Rootwalla. This is a really bad Diabolic Revelation otherwise. This didn’t need to be mythic and it didn’t need to cost 7 mana if you have to pitch your hand. Ugh. This might have been cool if it had madness for like 3B or something, but it doesn’t. This is a fart. I bet it’s a bulk mythic and it didn’t need to be.

DJ Johnson – I feel like this card got neutered in development. It might have cost 6 at one point, then they realized that it was insane. Maybe it sees play as a one-of if you can cast it for free, followed by some rituals? I dunno. Either way, it’s a bulk mythic. Foils could definitely be worth looking out for if they hit bulk mythic status as well.

Silverfur Partisan

silverfurpartisan

Jason Alt – This would be an amazing ability to put on a Legendary RG wolf, but multiple copies can stack so I guess there is upside to this not being Legendary. Could WotC possibly miss printing a RG werewolf Legend for EDH? Are they that bad at this?

This card is pretty cool and worst case scenario it replaces itself. Well, worst case scenario, a meteor smashes into our planet killing 90% of the world’s population in giant tidal waves and leaving the rest to fend for themselves in the frozen wasteland that used to be our planet when the ash cloud kicked up by the impact blocks out the sun and shrouds the earth in darkness for 100 years, ushering in a new ice age. This set could be as bad as Ice Age is what I’m saying.

This is a $4 preorder and if this ends up as a 4-of in a deck that can’t lose to burn decks or other spot removal, I could see that being a decent buy-in point. Siege Rhino went up from $4 and this could. How likely is that? The spikes aren’t sure and neither am I. There could be opportunity here, but this needs to really be a card.

DJ Johnson – This seems awkward. Wolves and werewolves need one-drops to compete, not more three-drops that avoid targeted burn. I’m not a fan of preordering this card either, considering it has to see a pretty strong showing to double up. I don’t really know what to make of it, so I’d rather play safe instead of be sorry.

Diregraf Colossus
diregrafcolossus

Diregraf Colossus enters the battlefield with a +1/+1 counter for each Zombie card in your graveyard.

Whenever you cast a Zombie spell, put a 2/2 black Zombie creature token onto the battlefield tapped.

Jason Alt – Very much in the same vein as Silverfur Partisan, this is the zombie equivalent and it plays differently and maybe better, maybe worse. This doesn’t rely on your opponent doin’ thangs, but it does require you to play zombies and there are like 2 good ones so far, including this one. This is great outside of Standard, but that won’t affect prices right off the bat so Standard is all we care about at first. Look how long it took people to buy into Risen Executioner. I don’t care what this pre-sells for it will drop. That is unless they reveal a ton of sicko 1-drop and 2-drop zombies in the next week, that is. I’ll take a second look at this card if they do. They won’t. But they could. But they won’t.

DJ Johnson – I like how they’re making lords more interesting instead of just +1/+1 effects across the  board. Jason’s correct in that the only thing that matters off the bat is Standard, and we’re not going to get Zombie tribal there. I think this goes down to near-bulk, but not quite true bulk. Trade for some at near-bulk if you like long-term stuff, but I’m not a huge fan. Zombies are jam-packed with three drops as it is, even in casual. There’s only so much room you can have in 60-card land, and it’s hard to compete with Messenger, Death Baron, and Cemetery Reaper.

Westvale Abbbey/Ormendahl, Profane Prince

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Westvale Abbey
Land
T: Add ◊ to your mana pool.

5, T, pay one life: Put a 1/1 white and black human cleric token onto the battlefield.

5, T, sacrifice five creatures: transform and untap Ormendahl, Profane Prince.

Legendary Creature – Demon
Flying, lifelink, indestructible, haste

Jason Alt – This seems pretty saucy. It’s a little slowish but so are control decks and this is really grindy. Historically, lands that fart out chump blockers and potential board swarmers are very playable and have been since Kjeldoran Outpost. This is currently $6 and if this ends up getting jammed in control decks as a win-con, that’s about right, I think. What I’m saying is this looks like a $5-$8 card on a good day and there is a lot more money to lose than there is to gain buying in at $6. If you want these to play with, pre-order, otherwise I don’t think this is mis-priced.

DJ Johnson – Did they forget to make this mythic? I feel like a land that transforms into a 9/7 flying, lifelink, indestructible, and haste should definitely be mythic. Having your win condition take up a land slot in your control list is absolutely insane, if you can’t remember Standard the last time lands that make creatures were around. I don’t think you buy in looking for profit, but $5-6 seems fine if you want one or two for your Standard lists.

Traverse the Ulvenwald

traversetheulvenwald

Jason Alt – This is pretty good in EDH and there is some flexibility here you don’t get with Worldy Tutor. You can play the creature the same turn you tutor for it which you can’t do with Worldly Tutor although you could just play Worldly EOT and pretend you drew the card right away, though that replaces your draw. This has some flexibility WT doesn’t once you get Delirium allowing you to still get a land if you want. I don’t know whether every deck is taking out Worldly Tutor for something that only gets a land some of the time but this card is interesting. At $7 pre-order per copy I am a little skeptical. I don’t think this is as good in Standard as you want a $7 card to be.

DJ Johnson – $7? I’m not  buying it and you shouldn’t either. I really think people are overestimating the ease of acquiring delirium in Standard. It’s easier in EDH, but you don’t pay $7 for a green sorcery tutor unless it’s Eladamri’s Call. Meh, I think this is a $2-3 in the medium term, considering its’ not really worth casting without delirium.

Drownyard Temple

drownyardtemple

Jason Alt – What does this card even do? Sea Gate Ruins is bulk so I don’t have high hopes for this card that seems to have less upside. Speaking of which, Madness seems to make Sea Gate Ruins way better.

DJ Johnson – I really like the design of this card, but I don’t think it actually does anything relevant. I want to break it,  but Wotc probably tested the absolute hell out of this type of effect to make sure that it wasn’t going to break formats into oblivion. It’s kind of sad, but you should still be aware of the foil price for Commander.

Deathcap Cultivator

deathcapcultivator

Jason Alt – General Zod has fallen on hard times since Superman banished him.

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I think this tells the tale pretty well. People want $7.50 for Deathcap Cultivator right now, so unless you think Rattleclaw is a bad corollary (it makes black, which is kind of relevant currently) I think you can basically only lose money at this price. If Deathcap Cultivator is much better than Rattleclaw, I think you lose your money much slower but still lose it.

DJ Johnson – Listen to Jason. Deathtouch isn’t the most relevant ability to scale into late game with, so I’m perfectly fine staying away because I’m confident this will be a dollar rare in a month or so.

Sorin, Grim Nemesis

soringrimnemesis

Jason Alt – This is a serious planeswalker. This just tunes people up. I think 6 mana is a lot, but this also just hits play and makes your opponent start to sweat bullets. It’s not the pseudo-wrath that Elspeth was, but I still expect this to see play. It’s also just sort of boring. Another BW Sorin and another Blue Jace is sort of “meh” but I’m glad they gave us two new ‘walkers in the set. We’ll see how this pans out, but like all planeswalkers, the jace tax makes pre-ordering a losing proposition 95% of the time. At $25, I’m staying away.

DJ Johnson – Jeez. Six mana walkers are supposed to apply a ton of pressure right out of the gates, and Sorin’s no different the fourth time around. The ult is mostly irrelevant I think, but who cares when you have a minus X to be versatile with? If you know what it feels like to be at three life with a Dark Confidant in play, I’m sure it’ll be fun to share that with every opponent across the table. Don’t pay $25 for this though, wait until its’ like $10 if you want to roll some dice and gamble money.

Markov Dreadknight

markovdreadknightpromo

DJ Johnson- Can you say bulk rare? Bulk. Rare. Don’t worry, the next card is freaking insane. At least, I think so. It’s a scalab…. You know what? I’m not gonna waste more space on this garbage. Keep scrolling, and you’ll see what I mean.

Jason Alt – This is decent as a card but I feel like with only limited casual appeal and nothing compelling making it a good Standard pick, this will languish in bulk bins. This site will get bought up and that bodes poorly for marginal rares like this.

epiphanyatthedrownyard

DJ Johnson – If you were a fast and dedicated reader, you got to see the paragraph on this card that I’m currently typing over. I thought it was a scaling Fact or Fiction, but I was corrected on Twitter and reminded that it was a lot more reminiscent of Steam Augury. There is a very big difference between those two cards. Your opponent will give you the bad cards if they’re a good player. This card is a lot worse after reading it correctly, so don’t buy $18 playsets.

Jason Alt – This is much closer to Steam Augury than it is to Fact or Fiction. You’re going to get bad cards with this. I realize control decks tend to have mana open at the end of the turn, but I think there are better ways to spend it. I don’t like this card very much and I certainly don’t like it at $5 a copy. I’m passing.

Harness the Storm

harnessthestorm

DJ Johnson – This card is sweet, right up until the moment you realize that you have to pay for the card you want to cast from your graveyard. Yeah, not so great anymore. It’s cute with Ritual effects, but we don’t want to play enchantments in our Storm deck that aren’t Pyromancer Ascension. Bulk rare.

Jason Alt – The only deck I could see wanting this is some sort of burn deck, maybe. For 4 mana you can Madness Fiery Temper? I don’t know. This is just a worse, more expensive Pyromancer’s Ascension in that case. It’s not good enough for Modern and the rest of the deck isn’t there for you to build it in Standard. This is cute but way expensive.

Olivia, Mobilized for War

oliviamobilizedforwar

DJ Johnson – 

Can we talk about how awkward this card’s name is for a minute? I don’t know, but it just doesn’t roll off the tongue very well. Also, that sword is horribly designed. Having holes in your sword is a really poor strategy that allows the opponent to parry and control your movements very easily, and makes it structurally…. you know what? Forget it. Card seems pretty strong on the curve, although we said that about Drana too. She’s certainly got a lot of synergy with the one-drop in the set where you can discard extra copies of the 2/1 for R and just play out a huge army, allowing you to give all of them haste.

Olivia is preselling for $14 right now, which still seems high to me for something unproven. On the plus side, you can toss extra copies to the first one when you play other creatures, so that’s something to think about. Wait, why is she a knight? Did she go to knight-school for the past six years, and get trained in how to use anime swords? Ugh.

Jason Alt – How long until someone alters this card to look like emo Cloud from Advent Children? I feel like she found this sword in a chest in Nibelheim. One more? Looks like Vincent and Cloud had a daughter and she prefers her dad’s clothes. She looks like a Final Fantasy 7 character, you guys.

She also looks pretty efficient at melting faces off. You can turn extra lands into upgrades for your creatures, so that’s pretty cool. She is a very aggressive creature and she isn’t as bad when drawn in multiples as other legends. $14? She is harder to put in decks than Kalitas and Drana and those cards only flirted with that price. I’m skeptical. I like this card, but not that much.

Jace, Unraveler of Secrets

Jace

DJ Johnson – Ehhhh…? I’m not too impressed, but maybe that changes after Vryn’s Prodigy leaves us. He’s preselling for $20 just like the other walkers, so we’re continuing to see a leveling off in walkers that don’t look insane right off the bat. Either way, you know the drill by now. Don’t. Preorder. Walkers. (unless you for some reason need them for a PPTQ the weekend of release)

Jason Alt – This does the most Jacey stuff ever. How Jacey is this Jace? It’s like the Jaceiest. People always underestimate Jace and he always proves them wrong. 5 mana seems like a lot for this guy, especially since he ratchets up to his ult so slowly, but he has a thick skin with his initial 5 loyalty, he can protect him self with his bounce, though it puts him in Temper range right away, his Ultimate is brutal and wins you the late game and Scry 1, draw is one of the best draw abilities we have seen on a Jace. He’s good, but is 5 mana too much? I think you are OK paying the $20 to preorder because I don’t know if he goes down a ton, at least in the short term. Don’t underestimate Jace, guys.

Edit – A lot of people seem to think I think this card is better than it is and that it’s just a worse, blue Ob Nixilis. Maybe. But people always underestimate Jace. Being blue matters. He’s likely too much to preorder for, but if you want more opinions, check out what the spikes think.

sigardaheronsgrace

DJ Johnson – I’m pretty sure this is a bulk mythic. Angelic Overseer was bulk. I’d much rather my large Angel have hexproof than all her puny humans, and so she’s definitely a step down from her former self. I can’t tell if she’s crazy from the art yet, or if she’s one of the last “good” angels left. Someone fill me in here, while I fill you in that you shouldn’t buy this card.

Jason Alt – Historically, angels that gives humans hexproof aren’t great. This isn’t as good as the other Sigarda and can’t even go in decks like Mayael like the other one does. I don’t think you want this as an EDH general, which hurts its upside. People will want to build around this, but I don’t like this much.

Sage of Ancient Lore/Werewolf of Ancient Hunger

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DJ Johnson – Get ready for another disagreement between Jason and I. I can’t ever imagine myself casting this in Commander, even in a Simic list where you draw a bunch of cards. I feel like everyone else at the table will easily be able to keep this on the front face without much effort, and that’s not very exciting. This is extremely win-more because if nobody is casting a spell in EDH past turn 4 when you play this, they’ve probably already lost the game due to either boredom or someone else killing them with a more effective card. Bulk. Rare.

Were you playing Maro in your Simic deck? How about Multani, Maro-Sorcerer? No? Then I don’t think you’ll be taking either of those out to replace them for something that is one of those cards less than half the time, and doesn’t have shroud to prevent it from being killed instantly. Are you really going to choose not to play two spells just so you can attack with your X/X? I didn’t think so.

Jason Alt – I spent like 45 minutes trolling Doug about this card today. This card is trash.

To the Slaughter

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DJ Johnson – This is going to compete with the super-Unmake of the set, and I still don’t think it’s going to be an extremely powerful chase rare. Fetches rotating makes Delirium very hard to achieve early on in the game (at least based on what we’ve seen so far) without sacrificing significant resources, and this is a card you want to play in a control deck to stall the game out. I’m not a fan of buying in early (you’ll see a pattern of that throughout the set review), and the delirium ability won’t even always be relevant because they have to have a creature and a walker to get value. Add in the fact that most walkers make tokens of their own, and you’re losing a lot of money here.

Jason Alt – The last time a card reminded me of Browbeat, Doug really liked it. I see people really flipping out over this card and I guess I can see why, but I think it’s being mis-evaluated a bit. If you have delirium AND they have a planeswalker, this is better than Cruel Edict. If they don’t, it’s worse than Hero’s Downfall by a lot. I don’t like paying $5 here, but if you think this is as good as Hero’s Downfall, we’ve seen cards like that (well, that card specifically) hit $10 so buy accordingly.

Arlinn Kord/Arlinn, Embraced by the Moon

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DJ Johnson – And here we have our first flip-walker that has the ability to flip back to the front face. While there are no eBay listings up yet (she’s only been spoiled for about an hour as of 12:00pm EST 3/15/16), I’m going to guess that she’ll pre-sell for about $20, similar to Nahiri. My financial verdict is similar to that of the angry lithomancer, so I would hold off on pre-ordering unless you’re itching to cast her on the first week.

That emblem is extremely powerful, but it is a bit deceptive in how long it takes to pull off uncontested. You have to use that 0 ability at least once to transform before you ultimate, and the removal ability on night mode is pretty valuable for killing off other walkers. I think it will just be better to keep making wolves and then Bolting things instead of chasing up to the -6.

Jason Alt – This does a lot of things you want a zoo walker to do. Elspeth, Knight Errant this isn’t, but she has a lot of abilities and can get herself and you out of jams. The problem is that you could find yourself wanting an ability that is on the opposite side and it’s very slow to correct that. I still think this card is pretty good and I imagine she’ll get jammed at least early on. Planeswalkers are tough to evaluate, but it’s also tough for them to get over $20 if the rest of the set is good and I imagine that’s where this will presell. I think there are more scenarios where you lose or break even pre-ordering this.

Odric, Lunarch Marshal

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Jason Alt – Dafuq is “skulk?”

Concerted Effort is now almost $3, so this card has a lot of upside in 10 years. You don’t want this as a Commander, but it can do some work in the 99. I still say this is a bulk rare with upside on the foil copies. Can you really see this getting played in Standard?

DJ Johnson – Something something Banding joke, something something Flanking joke. Alright now that that’s out of the way, this is some bulk. It’s bulk that casual players will freaking love, but still bulk. Maybe you can sell these at a dollar, but they’re definitely solid pickups at dimes. Those are a lot of words, and my customers love a solid helping of word salad on their cards.

Falkenrath Gorger

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Each vampire creature card you own that isn’t on the battlefield has Madness. Its Madness cost is equal to its mana cost. (If you discard a card with Madness, you may play it for its madness cost instead of putting it into your graveyard.)

Jason Alt – So this card is very good. Aggressive 1-drops are traditionally expensive, even the unexciting ones. This can pair with madness enablers to make all of your vampires cast the exact same way, so that’s cool. This is a weird sort of pseudo-flash that also makes their discard worse, I guess. Still, we have a 2-power creature for 1 that has upside rather than a drawback. I like. This is likely a $5ish card if Zurgo is any indication. Lots of cards in Innistrad are very slow. I think that makes the fast ones deceptively better. I like this.

DJ Johnson – This card is sweet. We have our first Jackal Pup in red without a downside, and it actually has a reasonable upside. I’m pulling Stromkirk Noble out of my bulk rares just in case, but I don’t see this having an impact past Standard. $3-4 seems reasonable during the first weeks, but just remember to not play bad madness cards to enable this guy. You’re not exactly cheating creatures into play for a lower cost, you’re just removing a “cost” from your discard spells.

Tainted Chains

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Flash, flying

When Tainted Chains enters the battlefield, target spirit gains hexproof until end of turn.

You can cast spirit spells as though they had flash.

Jason Alt – I have no idea. I am inclined to say this is a weird casual tribal card. So far I haven’t seen anything that indicates we’re going to see worthwhile spirits and enough to build a deck around. This could be a narrower Plaxmanta if we don’t have a real spirits deck since this can only grant any upside to spirits and is a Vampire Interloper otherwise. I don’t like this, but I could like it later. There are plenty more cards to spoil.

DJ Johnson – Something bulky this way comes. I don’t think Spirits will get a whole ton of love this set, so this is just a bone thrown to the six people in the world who want to build a ghost deck and then spend $500 at an alterist to get all their cards to look like some variation of Casper the Friendly Ghost. Those people won’t want to pay more than a dime on this card because they already wasted all their money on the alters.

3/14/16 Update
Foul Orchard Cycle

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Jason Alt – Golgari Guildgate broke limited and had to have its power level attenuated. Good on them for completing the Elfhame Palace cycle after everyone begged them not to for years. This isn’t as much for finance as it is to show that there are 15 cards after Woodland Stream, so probably 3 of each basic, which means there could be a lot of non-basics to go between Forsaken Sanctuary and Woodland Stream. These giveth hope and they taketh hope away.

DJ Johnson – You should probably buy out TCGplayer of all these, then list them for $4.50 a piece. It’s literally impossible to lose.

Pious Evangel/Wayward Disciple

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Jason Alt –The perfect cleric. This has so much EDH utility that I can’t imagine foils stay sane for too long. This does everything you want a card to do in an Ayli deck and it occupies one card slot to do two jobs. Foils, folks. Snap ’em.

DJ Johnson – Man, the flavor on this thing is sweet. While Jason is correct that this goes in Ayli without fail, that’s one deck. You have to find that person who is building Ayli and then find the one who’s foiling it out in order to sell these. Don’t let it join your bulk foils, but be realistic about how easily it is to move this crazy cultist.

Drogskol Cavalry

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Jason Alt – Sometimes you like a card a lot and it’s still bulk. This is one of those cards. This is stupid in EDH, which won’t be enough to bring its price up and it’s too slow for Standard which would be. I love this, especially with Doubling Season or Boon Reflection, but that doesn’t make this not a bulk rare.

DJ Johnson – Sometimes, you don’t even need to read the rest of the words on a card to know that it’s a bulk rare. Buuuuuuulk rare. One of my biggest pet peeves about cards like this is that they could have done almost anything else to “buff” the card, keep it at a garbage level for competitive play, and make it slightly less garbage for casual. Really? You think this would have broken the Limited format if had been a 5/5, or cost 6 mana instead? I just hate seeing cards that were designed to be extremely bad out of fear of being overpowered in Limtied.

Startled Awake/Persistent Nightmare

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Jason Alt – Remember that time you heard your cat throwing up and you snapped awake only to permanently forget 25% of everything you ever knew? Me neither.

Jokes about the stupid flavor aside, this is a stupid card that’s slow and bad and clunky and casuals are losing their collective minds over this card. It will never be truly bulk and I think Mind Funeral shows the surprising amount of money this could fetch, irrespective of how good it looks on paper (or doesn’t). This card could surprise people.

For the record, when I said something about a flip sorcery last week in my Gathering Magic article, I was joking.

DJ Johnson – On one hand, Mind Funeral and Glimpse the Unthinkable exist. On the other hand, Breaking // Entering is a card that I own 50+ of, and have been sorely disappointed by nonexistent returns. Just because it mills people for a good chunk of cards does not prevent it from being bulk status. This will hit bulk mythic status and while it won’t be an insane pickup, you could do worse. Remember that you’re paying 5 mana, waiting a turn, and then hoping they don’t trade it for their 1/1 if you want to get it back. It costs twice as much as Breaking // Entering, and mills less than half the cards.

Nephalia Moondrakes

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Jason Alt – I can’t think of a format other than EDH that wants this, which is to bad because Archetype of Imagination is a card and so is Wonder. This very expensively and non-permanently does a small effect. This wins you some Limited Games, but so would a 5/5 flying for 5UU. Bulk.

DJ Johnson – I’ll be honest; I looked at the mana cost, the artwork, then the little words at the bottom that said”Intro Pack”, and I don’t need to read anything else. Bulk.

Sinister Concoction

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Jason Alt – This card is sweet. If you can, get foils because that’s the only way to make money and because the green ghosts on the foil are going to look amazing.

DJ Johnson – This is a cute way to enable delirium and madness in Limited, although I don’t think that’s the main reason you play this card. This is condition-less (well, for the target at least) removal, but I don’t think that transitions well into Constructed, Commander or Standard. Stay away.

Angel of Deliverance

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Jason Alt – This card is very tricky to judge. I think it’s likely too slow for Standard, at least for the time being which means its price upside is Limited. EDH wants this in quite a few decks and it’s actually good enough to build around a little bit, but ultimately that won’t move the needle on non-mythic rares much more than keeping it above bulk. This is dumb with cards like Chandra’s Ignition, though. This won’t be bulk but I can’t see it pre-selling for a price I want to pay, either.

DJ Johnson – I really enjoy when Jason and I disagree, because that makes the set review more interesting for us to write. It sucks to constantly parrot each other on some of the more obvious stuff, and it’s better for you as a reader to get multiple dissenting opinions so that you can make your own choice. I’m personally going to call this bulk and refuse to buy any of these for more than a nickel. 8 mana more than Angel of Serenity, equal to old-Avacyn, and more than Angel of Despair. I really don’t expect any deck other than Kaalia to even consider this, and being a Launch Party crushes this even further.

Descend Upon the Sinful

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Jason Alt – So is this Martial Coup or is it Crush of Tentacles? That’s the real question.

The Spikes on reddit seem to think this is a mite too slow to save you and if this doesn’t see Standard play, it’s in trouble. EDH can prop this up a bit, but it is going to take Standard adoption to move this price and it’s not looking too good. This is no Terminus because while it’s sometimes better than its base effect, it’s never cheaper. That’s a problem. This is a $7 preorder and I think it’s quite possible to lose money buying at that price, even with how high we saw cards like Crux of Fate get in the short term. I’m bearish.

DJ Johnson – I think Delirium is going to be a lot harder to set up in Standard than people expect. This doesn’t help you put anything into the graveyard to get the angel afterward, and I do not want to buy in at $7. I expect it to drop pretty close to bulk, at which point you buy in if you expect to need them in the future for Standard.

Anguished Unmaking

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Jason Alt – Wowzers. This card does quite a bit and it does it at Instant speed. With EDH player currently happy with cards like Unmake, this could make a real splash. This is also going to be played in Standard quite a bit. I would compare this to Hero’s Downfall and buy accordingly. I don’t like the art on the gameday promo too much, which makes me sad, but I bet enough people like it that it doesn’t hurt the upside of the promo, which is significant, too much. This card is $8-$10 on eBay and that seems relatively likely to be the price moving forward, although it’s more likely to end up lower than that than it is to end up higher in my view.

DJ Johnson – Does anyone else get a “Cutscene from a PS2 JRPG” feel from the Game Day promo, or is that just me? I don’t think this will stay at the $8ish pre-sale price, but this is obviously not going to be bulk. Very powerful card, but 3 life is a lot. I think we can expect this to hang around from $4-5 for at least a few months.

Wolf of Devil’s Breach

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Jason Alt – I was going to be a little more dismissive of this card at first but then I remembered another similar curve-topper named Arc Slogger and how perfect that card was at finishing the game. Is this another Arc Slogger? It’s slower, more mana-intensive, harder to activate multiple times, harder to fuel with an empty hand and doesn’t have the benefit of turn 2 LD like the Ponza deck did.

This is a $9 preorder and that doesn’t seem quite right to me. This has to attack to do anything, is card disadvantage and is only playable if the rest of Standard is slow enough to run this. 5/5 for 5 is good, though, maybe the stats are enough for it to skate by on because 1 activation could deal enough damage to end the game, especially if you draw muitiples of these. I’m not convinced I want to pay the $38 for a playset eBay is commanding currently.

DJ Johnson – You know what else is true about Arc Slogger? It came out thirteen years ago, it could activate multiple times per turn, didn’t require you to have other cards in your hand, and didn’t need to attack to trigger. This seems very slow to me, and I would not be surprised to see this hit bulk mythic. Is a 5/5 for 5 really good anymore? We live in a world where Polukranos existed, and was unplayable at certain points throughout its’ life. I refuse to buy this at anything more than bulk; I’ll wait for some pro to prove me wrong.

Nahiri, the Harbinger

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Jason Alt – So apparently EDH characters will be introduced into the main storyline where apropriate. Nahiri is from Zendikar, I think, based on all the hedrons in her original art so I guess she is part of the story of how eldrazi invade Innistrad- because those feudal serfs armed with pitchforks don’t have enough problems.

This card is the real deal and its limited Standard appeal initially has this at a $20 preorder. That’s about where most Standard planeswalkers end up. Jace tax is a bitch, after all. I don’t know how much money we can make here. Narset seemed like a sweet Planeswalker, too, after all and people lost money on that one. You can maybe get something in the short term if you preorder now, but I don’t know if this is as good in Standard as it is in EDH, a format that won’t help its price get over $20 in the near term. I am staying away but I do love this card. I think we’re not done getting amazing planeswalkers. Could we get another Sorin? Because that would be borin.

DJ Johnson – Welcome to the first non-Core set with more than three walkers. While Nahiri certainly seems powerful enough for Standard at first glance, I’m not sure you want to pay $20 unless you’re itching to play with them out of the gate. I’m staying away until someone buylists these to me a month after the pre-release for $12 so I can resell them for $20. Cool lithomancers don’t look at vampire mansion explosions.

Archangel Avacyn/Avacyn the Purifier

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Jason Alt – Sweet sassy molassy. What a card to start with! Preordering for $100 a playset, this could stick around that price if people play it in Standard, but it would be tough. You almost assuredly lose money paying $25 for this, but how much you lose is debatable and having these in hand right away may be worth it to you. We have exactly one card from the last set over $20 so bear that in mind. I think this is going to lose some money and I think this isn’t quite as good as an EDH Commander as some people think it will be, but it will get jammed in plenty of decks. I am staying away at $25.

DJ Johnson – @RevisedAngel is beside herself. This is a spicy number that will almost certainly see play in Standard, but you didn’t need me to tell you that. If you need me for whatever reason, it’s to provide slightly less witty banter than Jason and to remind you that this is not a card that you want to pre-order at $25, at least if you have plans of selling at $50 or something ridiculous. If you’re that guy who already has his/her Standard list ready and raring requiring three copies of this, then go ahead and take the loss to rent the card for the more expensive pre-order.

Geralf’s Masterpiece

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Jason Alt – This seems pretty good to me and it could be the finisher a blue deck wants absent some dragons, but this is underwhelming in control and clunky anywhere else. This enables madness and delirium pretty well and if you’re helbent, it’s a 3-turn clock. I haven’t seen much that exiles so this could be a nightmare to deal with for some of their decks and if you can keep your hand free of excess lands this could be a 4/4 beater that lets you keep up a few utility spells. This is like a $4 presale which means if this performs like other $4 presale cards, you’ll lose like $3 pre-ordering. If you think it’s got upside, it has to grow a lot before it even buylists for $4. It’s clunky and I’m not confident in it. Pass.

DJ Johnson- Can this thing really fly on those wings? Let’s be real here, those do not look structurally sound with all those holes. Swords for arms? Real original Geralf, real original. This thing is an absolute monster in Limited, but I really don’t like it in Constructed. You’re putting a lot of faith into this guy when you bring him back expecting him to carry you through the rest of the game, so I think this is the Skaab Ruinator of the set. Don’t pre-order, you’ll get them for a dollar as a reward for patience.

Relentless Dead

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Jason Alt – This is a flavor home run, depicting the aftermath of Endless Ranks of the Dead, which people like. This also plays like a total monster, making it a combo enabler, efficient beater and all-around great card. I think the 30 people who preordered this for $75 a playset will feel silly when they see someone just listed a playset for $50. Maybe they won’t – Pain Seer sold out for $12 each on Star City Games and those people didn’t feel silly. This is better than Pain Seer so for $12.50, you have less to lose. So far this is the set’s de facto “WOW” mythic but it is mana-intensive and needs a full suite of zombies around it to make it truly effective. Modern hasn’t been able to crack the Gravecrawler deck code, Standard might not have enough zombies and the current combo infrastructure doesn’t wow me. I’m not excited to pay more than $10 a copy and even then, I’m not buying any myself. Cool card, though.

DJ Johnson – This set is reminding me how much I enjoyed the flavor of Innistrad, which I suppose would be the primary goal of a set called Shadows Over Innistrad. There’s a lot of words on this card, but it does eat up a significant amount of your mana. We’ll have to see if we get more Zombies to make this thing worth casting in Standard, but I don’t see it considering they have to split up the tribal support over like 89 different tribes for this block. Maybe in the second set of the block, but I’d put this in the same camp as Avacyn. Speculators beware, but bite the bullet if you have big plans on release weekend.

Devil’s Playground

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Put four 1/1 red Devil creature tokens onto the battlefield. They have “When this creature dies, it deals 1 damage to target creature or player.”

Jason Alt – This seems like a great example of a bulk rare that absolutely runs roughshod over people in Limited. I think this is too expensive for Constructed formats but this is brutal in Limited. Bulk Ware.

DJ Johnson – Bulk rare, but this will rip your face off at the prerelease. Does this mean Tibalt is in cahoots with Emrakul? WE NEED MORE CLUES.

Soul Swallower

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Jason Alt – Hill Giant or Scute Mob? This is situationally harder to trigger than Scute Mob and grows slower but starts out bigger albeit more expensive. I don’t know, this doesn’t seem to have a deck nor do enough in the deck it would have. Remember Splinterfright? This reminds me of Splinterfright. Ask Corbin about that one.

DJ Johnson – You know what I like about bulk rares? Most of the rares in the set are guaranteed to be bulk, and this is one of them. I can’t wait to sell this card to someone at the shop who spends 18 minutes talking to me about their Delirium deck.

Declaration in Stone

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Jason Alt – This seems pretty sweet. Potentially clears the board quite a bit but if it does, you’re giving them big card advantage. Sorcery speed means you can’t use this to get some value out of a doomed creature. I think this plays worse than it looks – I don’t like giving my opponents cards. I’d rather give them life or lands – anything but more cards. This is no Path to Exile and its $4 preorder price makes me think there is a lot of money to be lost here. We’re losing some good white removal to rotation, though, so this may be necessary.

Here is what the Spikes subreddit has to say

DJ Johnson – There are a lot of opposing opinions on this card, but all of them are focused on whether this will see play in Standard. It’s pretty obvious that this doesn’t maket the cut in Eternal formats, and I don’t play Standard enough (at all) to know whether its’ good in that format. Regardless, I don’t want to preorder it at $4.

Thing in the Ice/Awoken Horror

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Jason Alt – Sweet flavor but this is a $15 preorder. I’m not so sure about that, bruh.

Spikes weighing in

The voice of reason

DJ Johnson – This thing caused a lot of hype, but I can’t see it breaking into any format other than Standard. It seems extremely powerful in a format where Ojutai’s Command and flip Jace are both legal, but I don’t think it makes the cut in a world where Monastery Mentor and Young Pyromancer are legal.  Preordering at 15 dollars seems absolutely insane to me; this is a large set rare in the mythic era, people. Stop the madness. I think this is a $3-4 card a month or two from now.

Mindwrack Demon

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Jason Alt – This is the kind of Faustain bargain you make with black cards. I love it. I am not sure this needs to be mythic, but this is certainly efficient, helps you never take damage from it, helps you trigger delirium for other cards and has solid stats. This is a $1 preorder and probably doesn’t go down from there meaning there is potential upside though that upside is mitigated a lot by the Duel Deck printing even though the Duel Deck art is pretty asstastic compared to the set art. I’m staying away but I’m keeping an eye on this card.

DJ Johnson – Ehh…? It’s hard to lose bets when you buy into bulk mythics at .50 or $1, but It’s equally hard to win them when the cards you’re betting on are Duel Deck material. This competes with Kalitas, Drana, Tasigur, etc. I don’t bet on this, but I’m happy picking them up at quarters then throwing them into my dollar box for that earlier guy who wants to build the Delirium deck.

Flameblade Angel

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Whenever a source an opponent controls deals damage to you or a permanent you control, you may have Flameblade Angel deal 1 damage to that source’s controller.

Jason Alt – This is pretty decent. I don’t think it is going to get a ton of Standard play and largely feels like filler in EDH. Only 1 seller on eBay and he wants $20 for a playset. Sure thing, champ. This seems bulky to me, absent and entire archetype springing up around it.

DJ Johnson- Buuuuuuuuuuulk. Bulk bulk, bulk bulk bulk. Bulk, bulk bulk bulk bulk bulk. Bulk? Bulk bulk.

Bygone Bishop

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Jason Alt – Mentor of the Meek 2.0. You know who hated Mentor of the Meek? Standard players. You know who loved it? EDH Players. Whatever this price does, it won’t do it quickly. The good thing about this card is you can pay the mana to draw the card whenever making it less mana-intensive since you can empty your hand and refill it later. This is preselling at bulk and that seems fair. Remember, Hissing Quagmire is under $2 and that seemed like a reasonable presale at $6.

DJ Johnson- Seems fine as a bulk rare, and it gives you a couple of options. You can pick these up at dimes and then either throw them in a box and wait four years, or sell them at quarters to local players who think the card is insane. I’m inclined towards the latter, but do what you want. You control your own destiny.

Elusive Tormetor/Insidious Mist

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Jason Alt – I give this card a 10. Total. Spread over 2 categories.

Flavor – 9/10

Playability – 1/10

Bulk. Cool bulk, but bulk. Too mana-intensive and prone to blowouts.

DJ Johnson – Another card that non-competitive players will lose their goddamn minds over. The only question is whether they’re willing to jam this in their Vampire decks over their already established Captivating Vampire  and Bloodline Keeper. Even if they do, there won’t be enough people wanting it to keep it above the quarter bin.

Eerie Interlude

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Jason Alt – In some situations this is better than Ghostway. In some situations it’s worse. EDH players don’t like to debate merits when they can just run both. The Duel Deck printing robs this card of a ton of potential upside so there isn’t much to discuss other than how high this could get in a few years. Don’t pre-order.

DJ Johnson – Wait, this is in the duel deck? Welp, there goes any value this card might have had in the next three years. Dimes to quarters, people; dimes to quarters. At least this might remove some of the pressure from Ghostway from being a billion dollars. Seriously, don’t buy this. I don’t even want to pay a dollar on it.

 

Popularity

People are freaking out over the new Avacyn. And why shouldn’t they? After all, it’s a sweet Angel and it was spoiled in a kickass way at GP Detroit.

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Wizards got wise and finally decided to leverage some of Christine Sprankle’s popularity. She was going to cosplay at every event anyway – why not use her to spoil new characters? From Emmara Tandris to Avacyn she has done just that. And what a difference a few years make. The first GP Las Vegas for Modern Masters she cosplayed as Mercadian Masques Brainstorm and barely anyone from Wizards acknowledged her. Two years later at the most recent GP Vegas she had her own booth and was signing autographs all day.

Popularity like hers is nothing to ignore and I commend Wizards for having the presence of mind to leverage it for the good of the community and to subsidize her travel and costume expenses. Wizards occasionally has ideas I consider good because I agree with them (doing another Conspiracy is another example of something that greatly benefits the EDH community) and usually those decisions end up being pretty popular. Popularity matters and if we can stay abreast of what’s popular, we might just be able to make some money by being ahead of trends. Honestly EDH prices are so forgiving that even being “only slightly behind” can usually pay dividends. After all, no real tournaments means no one gets a weekly reminder that EDH affects prices and weekly decklists for people to panic buy cards from like they do with tournament formats. Before you write some comment about how EDH has tournaments, too, because you played a side event at a GP for 6 booster packs or your LGS has an EDH league, recognize how ridiculous you sound and keep it inside.

EDH prices tend to go up slowly based on people individually voting for cards with their wallets one copy at a time. I would worry about disrupting that pattern by encouraging people to buy differently, but no one reads this article so I’m not going to worry about unduly influencing the market.

How does a card’s popularity help us, though?

I’m Head of the Class

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People are very excited for this card. I saw estimates of the foil price at $150 which is bonkers, but, hey, foil on BOTH sides so that’s double the foil. That ain’t cheap.

With playsets of this little lady preselling for $100 on eBay at the time of writing this, people clearly want to jam this wing’d beast in their phases of combat to go forth and do glorious battle with their opponents’ faces. Battle ’em good.

One of the first articles I ever wrote for MTG Price concerned the release of new sets where people who don’t know what they’re talking about dismissively say “EDH” when they see a card they don’t understand and how taking ten minutes to learn something about EDH will help you look less like an idiot. Most people, even some finance writers, aren’t that concerned with not looking like an idiot when it comes to EDH, though, so the rest of us are stuck muddling through. Sometimes cards spike rationally, sometimes not. Sometimes someone at Wizards says the word “Werewolf” and people run out and by every copy of Mayor of Avabruck because “EDH.” Well, guys, a Werewolf Planeswalker that is a planeswalker on both sides doesn’t really help “EDH” like you may think and if people were inclined to build wolf tribal before, you wouldn’t have been able to get Mayor of Avabruck for $1.

How popular is a card like Mayor of Avabruck right now? We have a way to check.

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People are free to play Wolf tribal right now and there are  ton of killer Commander options. Ruric Thar, Bobo (either Bobo) – even a Commander like Marath so you can play Champion of the Parish if you want. No one is doing it. Compare that to the hundreds of people who were playing Starlit Sanctum before Ayli was printed. Can a Werewolf Commander make the deck popular enough that people pay real money for Mayor of Avabruck? Seems possible only because literally nothing besides Huntmaster of the Fells ($10? Jund must be hanging on by its fingernails in Modern for this to be more than $5) is expensive unless you count the stuff like Coat of Arms that goes in every tribal deck. Is there any money to be made even on foils? I don’t know. Instead of trying to predict the future and hope we get a Werewolf Legend either as a creature that flips into a Planeswalker (doubtful) or a separate red and green Legendary Werewolf, let’s look at how popular a commander needs to be to move the needle at all.

Tribeshead Revisited

Per EDHREC, Ayli is the fourth-most-popular Commander this month but is only the 19th most popular this week. It’s cooling off a bit but it’s still bringing some heat. People are going to forget about commanders like Ayli and Tazri for a minute if we get some sweet new wolf Legend to build around so we may be seeing the peak of price influence from Ayli. What prices has she influenced? Bear in mind, BW cleric cards are much older than RG werewolf cards and therefore more scarce and easier to spike with more price upside. You can have some dude open up a drawer and pull out 1,000 copies of Wolfbitten Captive that he collected as a joke – that’s less likely for Rotlung Reanimator or Edgewalker. So if Ayli can’t do anything, it’s even less likely the theoretical wolf guy can do it unless this wolf is somehow orders of magnitude more popular than the fourth most popular general this month.

Prima Facie, things don’t look too promising for Ayli. First of all, despite her being a tribal cleric in the right colors, it’s seemingly more tempting to build her as a generic WB reanimator/lifegain deck. The only cleric that shows up in her “signature cards” or “top cards” section on EDHREC is Edgewalker which saw a dramatic price increase from $0.40 to $0.40 in the last month. Even foil Edgewalkers are down from their historical high to its current $1.79 on Card Kingdom. The only real winner is foil Starlit Sanctum.

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This could have as easily been predicated on my article as anything else since there were so few copies, but at least the new price of $6.50 seems to be holding. No matter how you build the Ayli deck, this can do work in it wheres goofy tribal clerics like Master Healer only work in a specific configuration, one that seems to be a little less popular than the “Win with Felidar Sovereign” type of deck.

Foils are the only real gainers here, and this is with a popular deck being built by a ton of people. Ayli was a very interesting case study because we got to see exactly what a popular commander relevant to a bunch of very old tribal cards could do to prices. The answer? It reduced inventory numbers a bit but not enough to move the needle on prices. And we can see that a ton of Ayli decks are being uploaded to EDHREC.

Measuring Our Measuring Stick

Now, is EDHREC the most accurate possible measurement for the proportion of decks being built? Eh. Possibly. My using it as a metric for popularity is built upon a premise, one that could be true and could not.

My assumption is that a small percentage of the decks built by people are uploaded to sites like deckbox and counted by EDHREC. This is not a problem because we’re assuming that if 20% of all decks or whatever are uploaded and 1% of those decks are Ayli decks, the proportion will be the same meaning Ayli is 1% of 20% of all decks, but it’s likely 1% of all decks since you can extrapolate the total decks being built from a representative enough sample.

There is a possibility that we have a bit of a blindspot. What if the only kind of  person casual enough to build an Ayli tribal clerics decks is the only kind of person casual enough to upload their deck to deckbox? What if every Ayli deck ever built is uploaded and while it’s 1% of the decks on EDHREC, it’s like a hundredth of 1% of all decks built, skewing our results?

That’s possible but that’s also unknowable and with the wide array of sources being polled for EDHREC data, I’m going to call these percentages representative of EDH as a whole until such time as we can prove they’re not.

That being the case, what do the prices of cards in the Ayli deck tell us about what we can expect from werewolves?

Problems Summarized

First of all, there is no real wolf land. Kessig Wolf-Run doesn’t count and its fate certainly isn’t tied to the fate of a potential RG werewolf Legend. Cavern of Souls and other tribal lands don’t have much more upside either since the land isn’t specific to wolves and therefore their prices will respond to overall trends in tribal decks, especially in other formats. If there were a tribal wolf land from the first time around, only the foils would likely be affected and only if the number of copies available on retail sites were pretty low. Starlit Sanctum saw some upside but only in foil and wolves doesn’t even have that.

Secondly, the cards are too recent. We have millions of copies of werewolf rares sitting around in dollar boxes not being bought. If you decided to make a werewolf tribal deck, it would be lousy with cards like Daybreak Ranger and Instigator Gang and with the exception of Daybreak Ranger, thousands of copies of which are still in Brian Kibler’s box of shame, copies are everywhere, even for foils. While an all-foil werewolf tribal deck would be fun to put together (until you see how much foil Coat of Arms costs) it wouldn’t get put together often enough to drive prices.

Thirdly, if the werewolf deck is just as popular as Ayli, prices still couldn’t move for all of the above reasons. The werewolf deck would need to be far more popular than Ayli which seems unlikely unless the werewolf has a sweet effect outside of being the relevant tribe the way Ayli does and would need to be built more than Ayli to make up for the recency of the cards. It’s hard to be more popular than the fourth-most-popular deck last month and with Commander 2016 and Conspiracy 2 promising new Commanders, Shadows and Moon commanders will have a smaller window to make an impact before people want to build something more exciting.

Conclusion

I was going to make this article about how to use the most-built decks on EDHREC to determine which cards could surge and completely got lost and went off on a tangent. I’m glad I did, because I want to urge caution in the face of the enthusiasm I have seen for cards with even less of a case than cards in the Ayli deck. Predicting foil Mayor will go up because you bought a bunch of copies doesn’t count as a win unless you can sell the cards for more later and Ayli cards show that’s not as likely as we might think.

I may write the article I was trying to write next week. If I do, I’ll call it “Popularity II (Many Miles Away)” because sometimes the titles just write themselves. Don’t miss it.