All posts by James Chillcott

Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar: Top 8 Coverage

Well, here we are.

Many brewers entered the arena looking to put their stamp of originality on the newly minted Battle for Zendkar Standard, but in the end our Top 8 turned out more or less similarly to the one last weekend at the SCG Open in Atlanta.

Though the UB Aristocrats deck from Christian Calcano got many people excited and spiked Liliana, Heretical Healer from $14 to $25 overnight, our Top 8 is a powerhouse of legendary Magic pros and the decks that now firmly define this format:

  1. Owen Turtenwald (Jeskai Black)
  2. Ricky Chin (GW Megamorph)
  3. Paulo Vita Damo Da Rosa (Atarka Red)
  4. Martin Muller (Jeskai Tokens)
  5. Takimura Kazuyuki (Abzan)
  6. Jon Finkel (Jeskai Black)
  7. Ryoichi Tamada (Jeskai)
  8. Paul Dean (Abzan)

Our ladder looks like this:

Ricky Chin (GW Megamorph) vs. Ryoichi Tamada (Jeskai)

Paulo Vita Damo Da Rosa (Atarka Red) vs. Jon Finkel (Jeskai Black)

Martin Muller (Jeskai Tokens) vs. Takimura Kazuyuki (GW Megamorph)

Owen Turtenwald (Jeskai Black) vs. Paul Dean (Abzan)

With some relatively young players facing some of the biggest giants in the game in Finkel, PVD and Owen Turtenwald, I would expect Round 1 to yield winners in Tamada, Muller and Turtenwald, with the Finkel/PVD match being largely dependent on the PVD Atarka Red hand quality since Finkel can be relied on to play out his hand competently.

Almost regardless of which deck ultimately wins, the metagame is now definitively settled on Atarka Red, Jeskai/Dark Jeskai and G/W Megamorph as the Tier 1 decks to beat. This should lead to some modest price appreciation with the already inflated Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy and Gideon, Ally of Zendikar, as the two key non-land cards with over 20 copies in the Top 8. With fetchlands dominating all of the mana bases, it’s also likely that fetches will continue to appreciate through the season.

Welcome to a fantastic Top 8. Let’s see how it plays out:

Ricky Chin (GW Megamorph) vs. Ryoichi Tamada (Jeskai)

In Game 1, Ryoichi Tamada puts Gideon, Jace and Silkwrap on the board and demonstrates how easy it is to dominate an opponent that is land poor when you are running the three best cards in the format in the same deck. Game 1 to Tamada.

In Game 2, Chin curves out perfectly with Warden of the First Tree into Hangarback Walker into Deathmist Raptor, but a missed block on an attacking Jace from Tamada sets up a board state with a flipped Jace and a paired Wingmate Roc that turns the game into a solid race. Tamada goes aggressive perhaps a turn too early in the face of a pair of Dromoka’s Command however, and Tamada finds himself tied up at a game a piece.

Game 3 starts out strong with Ricky Chin, but a Mantis Rider and a paired Wingmate Roc leads to a grindy match which ends up being won by Tamada on the back of a Silkwrap removing a massively powered up Warden. Tamada advances with Jeskai to the semis, putting Gideon, Jace and Mantis Rider squarely in the spotlight financially.

Paulo Vita Damo Da Rosa (Atarka Red) vs. Jon Finkel (Jeskai Black)

Here we have one of the best possible Top 8 matches between two Hall of Fame Magic players.

Game 1 demonstrates the occasional fragility of the Atarka Red build as PVD is forced to mulligan into a hand with minimal action, and Finkel easily removes a couple of threats before steamrolling into an early victory.

Game 2 finds PVD forced to mulligan yet again and Finkel puts another quick game away with two Mantis Rider and a total lack of combo action from his opponent. Johnny magic moves on to the semis with Jeskai Black.

Martin Muller (Jeskai Tokens) vs. Takimura Kazuyuki (Abzan)

Unable to find anything but lands to pair with his Jeskai Ascendancy, Muller is forced to chump block a few turns in a row with his early tokens, and falls to a combined attack by Siege Rhino, Anafenza and Den Protector in Game 1.

In Game 2 Muller fails to find synergy and a smart mulligan from Takimura into a more aggressive hand results in a quick win and a trip to the semis.

Owen Turtenwald (Jeskai Black) vs. Paul Dean (Abzan)

Paul Dean gets a chance here to seek revenge against Owen for trying to knock him out of Top 8 contention in the final round Saturday in favor of Reid Duke.

In Game 1 Owen loses his only threat in Mantis Rider and Dean is able to put things away with Gideon and friends in fairly straight forward fashion. In Game 2, Owen keeps a promising hand with two lands and is slowed down enough to be put away by on curve Wingmate Roc and friends, sealing revenge for fellow Canadian Paul Dean.

Our Top 4 decks are two Abzan builds and two Jeskai builds, marking our Tier 1 as a mix of last season and the new JeskaiX options.

Side note: Snapcaster Mage has been announced as the RPTQ Promo, with new art. I would expect this to delay strong gains on the cards until later this spring, and though this art is unlikely to be preferred, this does add thousands of copies to the market.

Semi-Finals

Ryoichi Tamada (Jeskai) vs. Jon Finkel (Jeskai Black)

In Game 1 Finkel manages to get a flipped Jace, Sarkhan, Dragonspeaker, and Tasigur in play at the same time, and the game goes sideways for Tamada in a hurry. A flurry of Jeskai Charms from Tamada later however, leads to Finkel losing Tasigur to the top of his deck a few times, and a Gideon is able to take out Jace and put Finkel on his heels. Facing down a double Gideon emblem and multiple attackers Finkel finds a way out via a double helping of Mantis Rider to block, live and crack back for the final three. Game 1 Finkel.

In Game 2, back and forth plays lead to a critical Gideon attack alongside his allies, and Tamada takes back a win.

Game 3 sees Finkel lose after being penalized for a mid-game land coming in tapped, allowing Tamada to get in with Sarkhan, Dragonspeaker and put away the match.

Finals

Ryoichi Tamada (Jeskai) vs. Takimura Kazuyuki (Abzan)

Well the dust has cleared and the only men left standing are from the land of the rising sun. It’s been a while since we’ve seen a Japanese dominated finals at the Pro Tour, but it’s far from a surprise given the quality of play from these two gentlemen this weekend.

Takimura takes Game 1 fairly easily and puts himself just 2 wins away from a Pro Tour title.

In Game 2 Tamada manages to flood the board with Gideo, Jace and a bevy of allied threats, but carefully chips away at Takimura until a mass attack on the back of Jeskai Charm utterly closes the game in his favor. Game 3 finds Tamada using Jeskai Charm and Disdainful stroke to deal with a 4/4 Walker once via bounce, followed by the counter on the way back to the board. This traps Takimura on four lands, and leaves him wide open for a two quick attacks. Tamada goes to two games.

In Game 4 however, Takimura rallies back, his life suddenly easier with Tamada stuck on one land after a couple of mulligans. Heading into Game 5 Takimura takes a daring mulligan, giving up a hand with one land and early threats to get a hand with guaranteed land support. The next hand had two lands, and he was lucky enough to find a third in time to trade key cards and leave his opponent looking for a top deck. One big attack later and Takimura is our Pro Tour: Battle for Zendikar champion!

In the end it is Abzan in the hands of Tamikura Kazuyuki that takes the tournament in stellar fashion, and we have Siege Rhino on the podium despite the appearance throughout the weekend that it would be the tournament for Jeskai Black and G/W Megamorph to dominate the Top 8.

In the wake of Kazuyuki’s win, we see Gideon driving up towards $40, with the potential to settle anywhere within $5 of that number as the week goes on. Likewise Jace, which was easily the card of the tournament, has regained some lost ground and is pushing $75-80 again after some aggressive buying today. Liliana, Heretical Healer seems to be holding her $23-25 range so far, but could fall back towards $15 since none of her decks made Top 8. All in all, very few cards from Battle for Zendikar other than Gideon and the “battle” lands have made much of an impact at the top tables. Despite a plethora of interesting brews, our expected archetypes are still in the driver’s seat. How the metagame reacts will be interesting as we push deeper into BFZ Standard in the coming weeks.

Also of note, Dromoka’s Command should hold $7-8 as an integral part of both of the viable GW decks in Abzan and GW Megamorph. Wingmate Roc seems like it will command $6-8 in coming weeks, representing a solid gain from the $3 summer lows.

Thanks for sticking with us this weekend! See you next time.

Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar: Day 2 Coverage

After 8 hard fought rounds on Friday, including three rounds of draft and five rounds of standard, a metagame clustered around the best established constructed archetypes of the last few weeks has emerged. Despite more than 20 distinct decks making up at least 1% of the metagame, a full 60% of the field can be said to be on a variation of G/W Megamorph, Atarka Red or Jeskai Splash. Esper Control and Abzan take up the 4th and 5th slots by metagame at the event.

If there is a financial story on the weekend so far, it’s that many of the formats’ dominant cards are likely to hold and gain some value coming out of the weekend. In particular, cards such as Gideon, Ally of Zendikar, Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy and Den Protector all look likely to see plenty of play post this meta.

Over the last week, all of the following cards have put up 25%+ price spikes. A common theme here is undervalued rares from KTK block that are coming into their own in the new meta as they escape peak supply and find room to break out. Many of these cards are doing well enough thus far to hold position as card carrying members of the 3 top archetypes:

  • Crackling Doom (+200%): $1 to $3
  • Mantis Rider (+67%): $1.50 to $2.50
  • Dromoka’s Command (+60%): $5 to $8
  • Zurgo Bellstriker (+45%): $2.50 to $3.60
  • Dragonlord Ojutai (+40%): $20 to $28
  • Den Protector (+40%): $11 to $16
  • Ojutai’s Command (+33%): $3 to $4
  • Dragonmaster Outcast (+40%): $4 to $6
  • Anafenza, the Foremost (+25%): $6.50 to $8.25

After two more rounds of draft this morning, we now have the following players and decks within striking distance of a Top 8 berth and a date with destiny:

  • Christian Calcano on an innovative UB Aristocrats brew that pairs Liliana, Heretical Healer and Whirler Rogue with Nantuko Husk to great effect. Watch for Lilanna to pop if Calcano makes Top 8.
  • Eric Severson, our leader from Day 1 on Jeskai Black, with Jacob Wilson not far behind
  • Hall of Famer, Paulo Vitor Dama de Rosa cutting through the crowd with Atarka Red
  • Ryochi Tamada looking to make a mark with straight Jeskai
  • Reid Duke on Esper Control

Cards that are noticeable absent thus far at the top tables include Oblivion Sower and Ulamog, perhaps condemning ramp to Tier 2 status, at least until the release of Oath of the Gatewatch this winter.

Follow along with us as we stalk the final 5 rounds of Standard play before the cut to Top 8.

Round 12: (6th Round of Standard)

Patrick Chapin (Esper Control) vs. Shaun McClaren (Dark Jeskai)

Chapin takes Game 1 on the back of a pair of early Silkwrap, helping cement that card as one of the best kill spells in the format. Chapin’s build eschews dragons in favor of planeswalkers to close out the game. Both these players are on 8-2-1, looking to go at least 4-1 today in Standard to ensure a Top 8 berth. Efficient use of removal followed up by the power of Ob Nixilis, Gideon and Secure the Wastes puts McClaren away in Game 2, putting Chapin 3 wins away from the Top 8.

Paul Reitzl (Esper Control) vs Martin Juza (Esper Dragons)

This match provides insights into the future of control decks in Standard as we see the dragons take on the planeswalkers in a battle of long game stratgies. The players trade a game each, and end up in a strange final game, where both players on 8-3 are forced to accept a tie and bank on winning through to the Top 8.

Deck Tech: Blue/Black Aristocrats w/ Christian Calcano

Calcano calls out Liliana, Heretical Healer as the 2nd most important card in the deck after Nantuko Husk. The players on the deck are 4-2 and 5-1, which marks the deck for potential future success. Lilianna has already doubled this week on MTGO, so a strong Top 8 performance could possibly move the paper price from $15 up toward $20. A quick look at TCGPlayer shows copies under $17 already drying up.

Round 13: (7th Round of Standard)

Christian Calcano (UB Aristocrats) vs. Kazuyuki Takimura (Abzan)

Calcano takes a tight Game 1 after using Sidisi’s Faithful (!) to remove a key blocker and finish off Takimura. Calcano gets his opponent to 1 in Game 2, but can’t keep his synergies intact for the extra turn needed to put things away. A vicious Murderous Cut forces Calcano into a draw, and the Top 8 achievement is now in doubt for UB Aristocrats.

Jon Finkel (Jeskai Black) vs. Jon Stern (Atarka Red)

As we come in Stern is up a game but Finkel puts on a good show, using Radiant Flames and then recursive Lightning Bolts vis a vis Soulfire Grandmaster and Fiery Impulse to deal with successive waves of Goblins and manages to take the second game. Most players are at 10-3, so can’t afford the loss to be secure for Top 8.

Round 14: (8th Round of Standard)

Eric Severson (Jeskai Black) vs. Yuta Takahashi (Abzan)

Both players are on 10-3 and can earn a “win-and-in” with a win in this match. Takahashi wins the grind war to take Game 1. Brilliant sequencing by Takahashi in Game 2 takes the match and Abzan moves a big step closer to claiming at least one Top 8 spot.

Owen Turtenwald (Jeskai Black) vs. PVD (Atarka Red)

Owen defeats Pualo and ensures that both of these top tier players will make Top 8.

Round 15: (9th Round of Standard)

Jon Finkel (Jeskai Black) vs. PVD (Atarka Red)

This round brings us a match between titans and a possible foreshadowing for top 8 success. Facing down a horde of goblins both games, Johnny Magic makes his 15th Top 8!

Round 16: (10th Round of Standard)

Reid Duke (Esper Control) vs. Takimura (GW Megamorph)

Reid needs to win here, and possibly also have his friend Owen win his own match to give him his best chance at a Top 8 slot. After losing Game 1, Reid suffers when a Transgress the Mind exiles his Ugin, invalidating the power of Haven of the Spirit Dragon.

Owen Turtenwald (Jeskai Black) vs. Paul Dean (GW Megamorph)

Owen didn’t need to win this match to Top 8, but by “dream killing” Paul Dean he improves the odds that Reid makes Top 8. Owen wins his match and secures the top seed for Top 8.

Brandon Burton (Atarka Red) vs. Javier Dominguez (Atarka Red)

The winner of this match is set to likely take the 8th seed in the Top 8, ensuring at least one Atarka Red deck in contention. The games are tight, but some sweet tech in the form of Hooting Mandrills helps Dominguez take the match.

Yuta Takahashi (Abzan) vs. Ryoichi Tamada (Jeskai)

Winner of this match puts a tri-color deck into the Top 8. Tamada takes it down to put Jeskai in contention.

Top 8 Decks

Despite a plethora of pretenders to the crown in the form of innovative new decks, our Top 8 turns out very much as expected with a mixture of Jeskai Black, Atarka Red and GW Megamoph, almost exactly the same as the results from the SCG Open in Atlanta last week, with a single Jeskai Tokens build to add some spice.

  1. Owen Turtenwald (Jeskai Black)
  2. Ricky Chin (GW Megamorph)
  3. Paulo Vita Damp Da Rosa (Atarka Red)
  4. Martin Muller (Jeskai Tokens)
  5. Takimura (GW Megamorph)
  6. Jon Finkel (Jeskai Black)
  7. Ryoichi Tamada (Jeskai)
  8. Paul Dean (Abzan)

With this Top 8, I’d be selling Liliana, Heretical Healer, Oblivion Sower and Drana, and trading into Jace and Gideon. Otherwise most of the key cards have already jumped.

Join us tomorrow for live Top 8 coverage!

Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar: Day 1 Coverage

The stage is set for a weekend of epic card battles.  Despite a fairly muted response to the constructed playable cards of Battle for Zendikar, we find ourselves facing down a neatly refreshed metagame with multiple viable archetypes. After weeks of secretive testing, the top Magic teams on the planet have gathered for another epic battle between top Magic: The Gathering pros from across the globe. Over $250,000 USD is on the line, with the winner taking home a hefty $40,000 after three days of intense competition in in Milwaukee Wisconsin, USA.

As per usual, the Pro Tour weekends now feature a mix of booster draft (BFZ-BFZ-BFZ) and constructed formats with 3 rounds of draft Friday morning, followed by 5 rounds of Standard starting around 4-5pm EST.

For the MTG Finance community, the big question on all of our minds is whether any new cards from Battle for Zendikar will buck the trends of the first two major SCG Open tournaments of the season, and burst into the spotlight in Standard to push our recent specs into profitability. Will an overlooked card from the last block suddenly become key tech? Will there be a chance to get in on a must-have card that shows early promise or will the hype train leave the bandwagon speculators out in the cold without buyers come Monday morning?

With the Expedition lands suppressing the price of the rest of the cards in Battle for Zendikar, the conditions are right for some big spikes this weekend, though no-shows will find their prices undercut even further.

Many of the top teams have been in stealth mode for the last couple of weeks, furtively holed up in chilly northern hotels and AirBnB pads, attempting to break a format open that has stubbornly clustered around Jeskai Black, G/W Megamorpth & Ataraka Red thus far.

 

Pre-Game Top 8 Contenders

The early weeks of the new Standard format have demonstrated a fairly limited number of Tier 1 strategies that have a chance at dominance this weekend:

  • Jeskai Black
  • G/W Megamorph
  • Atarka Red

The most popular Tier 2 strategies to date have included:

  • Abzan Aggro
  • Abzan Control
  • Golgari/Jund Aristocrats
  • G/W Hardened Scales

With all of the testing this week there’s also the distinct possibility that this weekend will mark the debut of a sweet new brew, with my bet being on either an Eldrazi Ramp strategy or a B/W Mid-Range build leveraging Wasteland Strangler to emerge from the pack . With Standard starting before most of us are home from work, the stage is set for first mover advantage if an unexpected deck jumps out to an early lead in the hands of a reliable pilot. Which deck are you rooting for?

Cards to Watch

Gideon, Ally of Zendikar: Don’t Underestimate The General

28 of the top 32 decks at the SCG Open in Atlanta last weekend featured white cards, a color that has long been thought to be underpowered in Standard. With 4-of appearances in the winning G/W Megamorph deck and the 4th place Jeskai Black deck, as well as 3-of usage in the 5th place Bant Megamorph deck and the 7th place Jeskai Dragons. Facing peak supply, Gideon is still holding the top price tag in his set, and at $32 could easily pop above $40 if he wins big this weekend.

Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger: Is Ramp Real?

No one is denying that Ulamog is one of the most powerful things to be doing in a deck that wants to ramp. The problem thus far has been that most decks have cheaper options to put away the game in Dragonmaster Atarka, Silumgar the Drifting Death or Ugin, the Spirit Dragon. With a fast, grindy format expected, the appearance of a strong ramp strategy may be an outside shot, but at $13, there is certainly upside if our tentacled overlord makes a strong showing.

Jace, Vrin’s Prodigy: Set to Dominate?

  

Once an underestimated $10 pre-order, Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy has now blown through the ceiling for a Standard legal mythic, spiking towards $80 before falling back to $65 recently. Mostly being used in the various Jeskai builds at the top tables, Jace’s price direction coming out of the weekend should depend on whether he makes the Top 8. A miss could easily see the card fall back to $50-55, which a strong showing like SCG Atlanta could easily drive a fresh spike in the $5-10 range. As a strong believer in the future of Jace in older formats, I am actively looking for an entry point under $50.

Oblivion Sower: The Ramp Enabler?

No one denies that the creature is powerful, and fooling around with exile effects certainly brings some popular side benefits, but we’re still waiting for a viable ramp strategy to show that it can hold back the early aggro decks for a long enough to set up camp. So far, nothing exciting has emerged, so this could be a card set to sink yet further coming out of the weekend.

Wasteland Strangler: 2nd Coming of Flametongue Kavu?

With Hangarback Walker being played everywhere coming out of late summer, the format has shifted to a preference for exile effects, with cards like Silkwrap, Complete Disregard and Utter End seeing increased play. Consequently, the stage is set for this dangerous creature to find a home in a B/W Tempo Deck similar to the one I’ve been testing lately with exile effects, Drana, Gideon, Seeker of the Way, Sorin and Wingmate Roc. Being able to kill an early threat, and then take out a Deathmist Raptor or Mantis Rider should not be underestimated, and at just $.40, I’d love to see a big pro give me a reason to go deep on this portable 2-for-1.

Dragonlord Ojutai: Time to Flee?

Despite my misgivings in late summer, Ojutai has managed to find a second spike in the $30 range, and is now sliding back toward $25 on lessened play facing a metagame full of sacrifice effects, led by Crackling Doom out of the Jeskai Black decks. If that trend continues I would expect to see limited play from the Azorious Dragonlord this weekend, and a further slide back toward $20.

Here are some other interestingly cheap cards, that could spike hard on unexpected strong play this weekend:

  • Demonic Pact ($2.50): The Demonic Pact decks have been hovering in the shadows, waiting to pounce once someone figures out the right build to leverage the extreme card advantage inherent to the archetype.  As a mythic from Magic Origins, the card could pop hard if anyone ever figures it out.
  • Lilianna, Heretical Healer ($15): The nasty necromancer hasn’t found a strong home yet, but could be a key component in a rebuild of the GB Aristocrats decks that have been squeezing a few copies into the Top 32 of early tournaments. Smothering Abomination, sitting under $.50, could also pop if this deck does well.
  • Jeskai Ascendancy: This formerly dominant Standard player has been sidelined for months at $0.75, but could be primed to bounce back on a good showing from Jeskai Tokens decks.

Stay tuned for Round by Round MTGFinance coverage of Pro Tour Magic Origins all weekend!

Round 4 (1st Round of Constructed)

  • Gabriel Nassif (GB Aristocrats) vs Frank Karsten (Atarka Red)
  • Martin Dang (Jeskai Tokens) vs Joel Larsson (Jeskai Tokens)

Both of these recent Pro Tour winners are on a Jeskai Ascendancy build with Gideon, leveraging a pile of tokens via Goblin Fodder and Hordeling Outburst to try and go wide on opponents.Jace is also present in both decks. The players split the first two games.

  • Antonio Del Moral Leon (Esper Dragons) vs Yuta Takahashi (Abzan Control)

Deck Tech #1: Adrian Sullivan on Esper Demonic Pact Control

This card leverages Demonic Pact via Disperse, Silumgar’s Command and Utter End. Also runs a bunch of Esper Dragons style control cards.

Round 5: (2nd Round of Constructed)

  • Gerry Thompson (Mardu Dragons) vs. Paul Cheon (Naya Megamorph)

Thompson is running Sarkhan, Dragonspeaker alongside a full grip of Thunderbreak Regents. Cheon’s deck makes user of Hangarback Walker, Nissa, Gideon, Dromoka’s Command and Wingmate Roc. Cheon takes the first game on the back of multiple Rocs.

  • Jon Stern (Atarka Red) vs. Marcos Paylo De Jesus Freitas (Naya Eldrazi)

In Game 1, Marcos fails to ramp in time to stem the aggressive tide from Jon Stern.

  • Owen Turtenwald (Dark Jeskai) vs. Makihito Mihara (Blue Abzan)

Owen is on a fairly familiar Jeskai Black build, while Mihara is playing Treasure Cruise alongside the usual Abzan cards. Owen takes Game 1 down with the help of Jace recursion on Roast. Mihara bounces back to take game 2. Mihara steals a noteable Dragonmaster Outcast with Exert Influence in Game 3. Mihara also running a miser Bring to Light, and manages to take the match.

Deck Tech #2: Dan Ward on Temur/Jeskai Dragons

This deck features:

  • 4 Beastcaller Savant
  • 4 Rattleclaw Mystic
  • 4 Mantis Rider
  • 3 Savage Knuckblade
  • 4 Woodland Wanderer
  • 4 Thunderbreak Regent
  • 4 Icefall Regent
  • 4 Draconic Roar
  • 2 Jeskai Charm
  • 2 Stubborn Denial

 

Round 6: (3rd Round of Constructed)

  • Oliver Polak-Rottman (Esper Control 5-0) vs. Jacob Wilson (Dark Jeskai 5-0)

Wilson takes the match 2-0 to advance to 6-0 as Oliver resigns from the match in frustration after a misplay.

  • Christian Calcano (UB Aristocrats) vs. Peter Vieren (Esper Control)

Calcano takes down his match with his innovative color shifted version of Aristocrats.

  • Makihito Mihara (Blue Abzan) vs. Owen Turtenwald (Dark Jeskai)

Mihara’s innovative Abzan build splashes blue for Jace, Everywhere Prodigy and Treasure Cruise. Turtenwald is on a fairly standard Dark Jeskai build, leveraging Crackling Doom and Tasigur for value. The match was a grindy and technical affair, but Mihara managed to come out on top after three.

Deck Tech #3: G/W Megamorph

Michael Majors is showing off his updated build of the expected G/W Megamorph deck.

Round 7: (4th Round of Constructed)

  • Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa (7-0, Atarka Red) vs. Yuta Takahashi (7-0 Abzan Aggro)

Both builds were fairly well known here. PVD takes it down 2-1.

Round 8: (5th Round of Constructed)

  • Magnus Lantto (Esper Planeswalkers) vs. Ryoichi Tamada (Jeskai)

Lantto’s deck represents a revised version of earlier Esper Dragons control builds, with Ob Nixilis, Reignited and Gideon, Ally of Zendikar standing in for the cards no one wants to lose to Crackling Doom or Foul Tongue Invocation this weekend. Tamada chose to eschew a 4th color alongside his streamlined Jeskai build, looking to ensure that Jeskai Charm could consistently push through the final points of damage. The strategy paid off again here, with Tamada taking the match in two games, and leaving him at 7-1 on the day.

At the end of Day 1, only Eric Severson remains undefeated, with his Jeskai Black build.

Our Day 1 Metagame breakdown looks as follows (% of field in brackets):

  • Atarka Red: 14.4%
  • Dark Jeskai: 13.90%
  • Green-White Megamorph: 10.90%
  • Esper Dragons: 6.30%
  • Abzan: 4.90%
  • Esper Control: 4.10%
  • Red-Green Landfall: 3.80%
  • Blue Abzan: 3.00%
  • Naya Megamorph: 3.00%

Though the three decks with the best records in recent weeks occupy our top slots and make up a full 40% of the metagame, the field is still relatively wide open with more than 20 distinct deck types representing at least 1% of the field. This likely indicates that team testing resulted in no certain feel for the best deck in the format, and a relative lack of reliable trumps against a field full of diverse threats and answers. In such a format we can likely expect to see both skill and experience contribute strongly to our winner.

Full details on the metagame can be found here.

Join us at 11am Saturday for Day 2 coverage of Pro Tour: Battle for Zendikar!

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Digging for Dollars: Battle for Zendikar

By: James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Battle for Zendikar is a weird set from a historical perspective, and quite likely a heavy piece of foreshadowing for how WOTC intends to market Magic: The Gathering for the foreseeable future. By inserting a truly lottery ticket-like upside to opening packs in the form of Zendikar Expeditions, Wizards of the Coast boosts set sales while keeping the cost of playing Standard lower. If it works out, and all signs point to the fact that it will, we can expect generally cheaper Standard decks paid for by our willingness to roll the dice on fancy foil goodies.

So what does this mean for those of us looking to make some money on BFZ?

Firstly, if you managed to get your hands on a case of BFZ at a reasonable cost, and you have both the time and outlets to crack it and move it while demand still exceeds supply (before mid-October, ideally), you have a decent shot at making most of your money back on the back of a couple of Expeditions lands and a double fistful of key mythics. This could potentially leave you with hundreds of cards to support your Standard and EDH decks at the cost of your valuable time.

Now, if instead you were hoping to find some tasty speculative buys that others are missing, your window of opportunity may have already passed. Many of the best cards in Battle for Zendikar (e.g., Undergrowth Champion) have already been identified, and it’s possible that too many are already priced for success for us to expect much in the way of short-term hidden gems. Remember, however, that you’re really going to see the greatest returns if you skip the armchair theorizing and buckle down to test the decks ahead of the curve. The combination of battle lands and fetch lands means that four- and five-color decks are very real options this fall, and as such, several cards are still being evaluated in an outdated context.

Here, presented in order of likely upside, are my picks for the cards in Battle for Zendikar most likely to reward timely speculation, with all target prices assumed to be possible during 2015 unless otherwise noted:

1. Drana, Liberator of Malakir

When I started writing this article 36 hours ago, this was far and away my best pick for a BFZ mythic about to take off like a rocket ship. Initially, Drana was available on pre-order for around $10, but as more people have started brewing and testing with this flying war machine, the price has started to push up, especially in the last 24 hours or so. The risk is consequently rising, and I believe that Drana needs to make the top eight at Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar to hold a price over $15.

That being said, this could easily turn out to be the Dragonlord Ojutai of BFZ, a powerhouse, must-answer four-of in Abzan Aggro, a Hardened Scales variant, or something entirely new. If it looks like the premier card in a tier-one Standard deck for the next few months, Drana could spike above $25, and make a playset or two a solid way to pay for dinner.  On the other hand, if Drana fails to prove herself early on, look for her to drop below $10 with the rest of the unplayed mythics and open up a more attractive entry point for potential greatness in a different metagame sometime before spring 2017. If you’re looking to get in now, however, move fast. Even as I type these words, copies are drying up and pushing the few remaining copies closer to $20, with not much meat left on the bone.

Now: $15
Target: $30+

2. Oblivion Sower

  

When a mythic is this far up the power curve and gets better in environments with fetch lands and delve cards, it’s worth at least considering getting in on the action. Oblivion Sower was one of the earliest mythics revealed from the set and a promising financial prospect. Then it became clear that the card was included in the associated Duel Deck for the set and we all backed off. The thing is, Polukranos was also a powerful midrange creature with a sweet ability included in a Duel Deck, and he experienced two spikes over $15 despite that fact. There also might be an Eldrazi or dragon (or both!) ramp deck that wants this guy to play mid-game defense and search up the lands to get the really big guys like Atarka and Ulamog onto the playing field. Again, this pretty much needs to be a three- or four-of in a major deck to have a chance at a spike, but you won’t find me surprised if it does.

Now: $5.50
Target: $10+

3. Retreat to Coralhelm (Foil)

  

In case you missed it, this card might be the next big thing in Modern, alongside the dashing Knight of the Reliquary. Ari Lax wrote an article about it yesterday, and essentially what it says is that both of these in play means having as much land and as big a knight as you want. It also allows for all sorts of toolbox shenanigans, including finding unique lands and making cards like Hangarback Walker and Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy even more powerful. Knight of the Reliquary has already jumped on the hype, moving from $5 to over $10 in the last couple of weeks. Foils of Retreat to Coralhelm are sold out on Star City Games at $8, and my guess is they will restock above $12. This doesn’t leave much to gain in the short term, but a few years of success could see this card above $20 like foils of Deceiver Exarch.

Now: $10-12
Target: $20 (long term hold)

4. Woodland Wanderer

If I had to point at the rare creature from BFZ that most benefits from a Standard format that can support four-color decks with ease, this would be it. Easy to cast as a 6/6 with pseudo-evasion that plays excellent defense, this guy makes Siege Rhino stay home and shrugs off burn spells. My testing in both Bring to Light and four-color Hardened Scales brews says he’s an unremarkable but always welcome role player that multiple decks may run as a four-of. That means he’s got a shot to be one of the few rares in the set to gain value rather than lose it.

Now: $4
Target: $8+

5. Emeria Sheppard (+foils)

You might need to hold onto these for a while to yield a decent return, but I’m finding it very hard to believe that a card this busted should be $1 in a world where I can use reanimation spells to put it into play and fetch lands to abuse it. First we need a reanimation spell worth casting, but still. At the very least, foils are solid long-term holds for Commander, especially if peak supply knocks them down into the $5 range. For now, I’m picking up 20 of these for $20 and adding them to the spec closet.

Now: $1 ($8 foil)
Target: $3-4 ($15+ foil)

6. Painful Truths

If we end up in a Standard format full of three- to five-color decks that all want to cast Siege Rhino, then I have a feeling this card will end up in high demand. Anytime you can cast it for full value and aren’t facing aggro pressure, you’ll be happy to have it, but it goes without saying that aggro often dominates this early in the season, so you may be able to snag a few copies around $1 before it finds a time to shine. Dig Through Time, Treasure Cruise, and Abzan Charm all rotate this spring, which would leave this card sitting pretty for a modest spike.

Now: $1.50
Target: $5

7. Bring to Light (foils)

There is in fact little doubt in my mind that a Bring to Light deck will make top eight of a major tournament this fall. The card is at minimum a way to play up to eight Siege Rhino, which is insane, and a deep toolbox besides. Still, Siege Rhino is arguably the best fall rare in Standard, has been all year, and still has trouble holding $4. As such, what I’m really wondering is whether Bring to Light is going to end up in Modern in some sort of value or combo deck. My gut says yes, and I’m looking to snag some copies under $15 at peak supply to follow through.

Side note: Siege Rhino foils, up as high as $20 on Modern play last winter, are now back around $8. This is a definite buy, folks, though you could risk waiting until rotation to get an even better deal.

Now: $16?
Target: $30+

Honorable Mentions:

  • Felidar Sovereign dropped from $10 to $1 on the reprint, but should easily recover to $3 or $4 in a few years. Seems like safe fuel for a future buylist order if you don’t have anywhere better to stash some cash.
  • Blight Herder isn’t a $1 card either. It’s seven power and eight toughness for five mana in any situation where your opponents are using delve, and the three little guys give you the option to ramp to eight mana the next turn or cast something for three right away, effectively making the 4/5 body cost two. That’s also four bodies to sacrifice to a Nantuko Husk, Bone Splinter fuel, and all sorts of things to be doing in EDH or Cube. If it finds a Standard home, it goes to $3 or $4 right away, and otherwise, it finds the same price point within a few years.
  • Part the Waterveil is a Time Walk variant and a mythic. Sometimes it makes a hasty creature you can attack with twice in its wake. It’s currently $2.50 and will almost certainly top $5 to $6 by 2018.
  • Crumble to Dust foils clearly have Modern applications and are currently around $7, with a solid shot of falling toward $5. It’s only an uncommon, but this could be a future $10 to $15 sideboard card in foil.
  • Bad puns aside, Void Winnower shuts down Siege Rhino, Dragonlord Dromoka, Dig Through Time, Treasure Cruise, Gideon, Jace, and well, half the format. It also has at least half of an evasion ability and can’t be blocked by tokens. What it doesn’t have is a graveyard recursion spell to help it make a splash. After all, if you’re going to nine mana, you might as well go to ten and cast Ulamog. As such, I suspect you are going to get a chance to nab this card below $4 pretty soon, and that might be a decent long-term hold if someone figures out how to put him to work.

Cards You Should Be Selling

  1. Expedition Lands

Be honest with yourself. You’re not going to be getting full playsets of these. They’re too expensive to play with, and the market has already fully priced these out to a level that is unlikely to be sustainable heading into peak supply in late October. In the long term, returns on the fetch lands especially may be reasonable, but cards this expensive are far less liquid than regular staples and you may find some sweet deals around the holiday season when folks are dumping them to pay for Christmas gifts. There’s also the fact that their rarity may be more like two per case rather than one per case, which if true, means they are twice as common as we thought. Sell into the hype and buy yourself something nice.

2. The Planeswalkers

Kiora is underwhelming in testing so far and Ob Nixilis is looking like a one- or two-of in a few decks, so I expect both of these cards to drop from current levels down towards $10 to $12. A reprint in the spring Clash Pack could further maul their value. Gideon, Ally of Zendikar looks like the real deal, but seeing as how he’s already closing in on $40, I’m happy to be unloading my prerelease copy into the hype looking to snag him later under $25 as necessary. Of course, if you’re planning on playing a full set next week, you might as well hang on to him, since he may win you enough games to pay for the difference.

3. Ruinous Path

It’s worth noting that Hero’s Downfall spiked to over $10 at one point, but the lack of instant speed really hurts in a format that is already missing good instant-speed removal on the early part of the curve. Even still, I’m betting against this holding $8 and recommend you trade out for better targets before the price starts to tumble.

4. Undergrowth Champion

This guy is looking pretty solid in my testing, but he’s not going to be a multi-deck role player. Get out immediately, and nab a playset once peak supply knocks this back closer to $10.

Magic Origins Update

In Digging for Dollars: Magic Origins, I called out the following specs as undervalued cards with some chance of financial success (shown with original and current pricing):

  1. Nissa, Vastwood Seer: $26 to $20 (-25%)
  2. Erebos’s Titan: $8.40 to $2  (-76%)
  3. Abbot of Keral Keep (Foil):  $13 to $20 (+53%)
  4. Evolutionary Leap (Foil):  $15 to $8 (-53%)
  5. Harbinger of the Tides (Foil):  $18 to $8 (-56%)
  6. Demonic Pact:  $3.75 to $3 (-20%)
  7. Animist’s Awakening: $10 to $6 (-40%)

So far, the only solid win from the list is Abbot of Keral Keep foils. I correctly identified that the card was Modern-playable and likely to rise on demonstrative play. As it turns out, the card is seeing play in both Grixis and Temur decks in Modern, including the innovative Temur Prowess deck recently played to a solid finish by Patrick Chapin. That being said, the card is still readily available around $18, which is a bit higher than my earlier entry point of $12 to $15, but still a very solid pickup. I’d recommend moving in on the card at this price if you haven’t already, as I still predict a future price over $30 on further Modern play.

Nissa is seeing play, but rarely as a four-of, and Jace has stolen a lot of her value, so she’s shaved a few dollars off instead of spiking. Of the other potential Standard winners, Erebos’s Titan and Demonic Pact have found fresh lows, and so far don’t seem to be showing up in any lists for this fall. That being said, they still have one more rotation cycle to come to the forefront, so lay your chips where your heart leads you. Erebos’s Titan especially works well with ingest and delve, so maybe there’s something there to be found.

The good news, however, is that Evolutionary Leap has yet to find a steady home in Modern and foils are down to $8, which is an entry point I find compelling. The card is too rich of a value engine with tokens and toolbox creatures to stay low forever, so I’m moving in on some more copies. Likewise, I’m a bit mystified as to how Harbinger of the Tides foils are down to $8 with it being a three- or four-of in Modern Merfolk, especially with that deck doing so well lately. Regardless, I’m down for a few more sets at that price.

The results of DFD: Origins, then, provide further proof that buying a full portfolio of long-shot lists like this is nearly always a bad strategy. Cards like Demonic Pact and Erebo’s Titan too often hinge on the emergence of a specific linear deck, whereas flexible and powerful cards like Snapcaster Mage and Abrupt Decay offer up multi-format appeal that can be tucked into a myriad of decks.

Huge Miss of the Last Set

   

Along with the rest of the MTG finance community, I completely missed the power inherent in a Merfolk Looter with a flexible upside when first exposed. Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy has since emerged as a viable player in both Modern and Legacy, as well as one of the top five cards in Standard. I recently called Jace foils out as a top buy, and indeed they have spiked to over $80 since then, earning me some solid profits on the copies I managed to nab before the spike.

So there you have it. Anything I missed that you’re on top of? Logic to kill one of the specs? Have at it. I’m not sensitive.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.