All posts by Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund Ausfresser

PROTRADER: The Irony of Eternal Masters

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Last week I talked about the incoming price declines we can expect from the release of Eternal Masters.  Reprints of Legacy, Vintage, and Commander staples are sure to drop prices to varying degrees simply because the demand for more staples will not likely outpace supply.  This is especially the case for 1-ofs like Mana Crypt, Karakas, and Vampiric Tutor.  Prices are about to fluctuate significantly.

We could pause and celebrate a successful set release for Wizards of the Coast at this point.  They’re going to generate more profits for Hasbro and the player base will have easier access to numerous eternal staples.  A true win-win right?

Well, not exactly.  You see, some cards didn’t get reprinted in Eternal Masters.  Obviously everything can’t get a reprint – there are far more cards worth reprinting than there were slots in the set.  Some cards will inevitably have to wait their turn for next time.  The problem is, those cards which dodged reprint are now very likely to jump higher in price!  Players may open up a few valuable Legacy staples and wish to trade for other parts of the deck which weren’t in Eternal Masters.  Speculators are definitely going to pounce on opportunities where supply did not increase.  And overall we’ll see copies dry up over time, leading to higher pricing.

Thus, some card prices in key archetypes will jump higher, counteracting much of the relief delivered by Eternal Masters.  The world is an ironic place, isn’t it?

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Sigmund Ausfresser

PROTRADER: Price Trajectory for Key EMA Reprints

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The full spoiler for Eternal Masters is out and the moment of truth is upon us.  There’s one thing and one thing only on my mind regarding this set: how will it impact prices?  Whether or not this is a balanced set, a good draft format, good EV, or fun to play is irrelevant to me.  As an MTG finance person first and player second, my natural response to the set is one of financial analysis.

There are two analyses that can be conducted now that the full set is spoiled: an intra-set analysis and an extra-set analysis.  That is, what will cards in the set do price-wise and what will cards outside the set do price-wise.  These are two very different perspectives that each merit their own dedicated column.  This week I’m going to focus on the intra-set analysis.

Basis for Prediction

Before I begin assessing individual cards, first I want to briefly summarize my approach.  First and foremost I need to assume a print run – given the lack of Grand Prix to celebrate the release of Eternal Masters, I don’t believe the print run will be as large as Modern Masters 2015.  But based on the fact that prices didn’t tank after MMA and MM2015, I speculate that Wizards of the Coast would want to err on printing more packs than less simply because it will generate more sales.  Therefore, I’m going to assume a print run of MM2015 and use MM2015 pricing to predict magnitude of price change.  If nothing else, the MM2015 assumption will allow for a “worst case” prediction.

Next, I’m going to leverage MM2015 reprints as a way to predict the direction of EMA prices.  The closer a parallel exists, the easier it will be to predict price movement.  A card’s utility in different formats will most certainly carry heavy weight in this comparison.  A strictly casual card must be compared with another strictly casual card in as many cases as possible.  This is especially true when considering the ubiquity of a card in a respective format as well as the quantity of copies played in decks that use said card.  All of this will become clear once I begin my analysis so rather than dribble on here, let’s jump in!

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Sigmund Ausfresser

PROTRADER: Gleaning Valuable Information from Hotlists

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Depending on local player population, a vendor may have higher demand for certain cards.  Perhaps there’s a strong Commander population locally.  Or perhaps a shop runs successful Legacy events on a weekly basis.  Other shops may have tremendous Standard turnouts.

No matter the niche, this trend can evolve into interesting price differentials.  One of my favorite ways to track these differentials is via the “Hotlist”.  The Hotlist has become a mainstream strategy for a vendor to showcase the cards they are currently searching for with what they feel are higher-than-average buy prices.  Used effectively, it’s an excellent way to draw wandering players at large tournaments while also filling voids in stock.

One of my favorite stores – ABU Games – has had a Hotlist on their site ever since I started using them a few years ago.  Whether or not those hot prices are truly competitive is a separate matter.

ABU Games

Nowadays it seems you can’t visit a vendor’s booth without seeing a hotlist posted on a whiteboard somewhere.  What’s more, these lists have started getting the attention of a broader MTG Finance crowd.  Now I don’t even have to attend an event to monitor what certain vendors are actively chasing; I just watch my Twitter feed and each weekend the pictures come pouring in.

Over the past couple weeks, I’ve noticed something I want to point out.  From there, I want to deep dive into my hypothesis for why this trend has surfaced and wrap up with where I think it’s going from here.

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Sigmund Ausfresser

PROTRADER: Reprint Summer is Near

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While Standard and Modern begin to establish consistent metagames, I’m noticing a flattening of price trends across much of MTG lately.  Sure, you still have explosive growth as players begin combining Nahiri with Emrakul in Modern, but Nahiri has got to be in the minority.

Nahiri

Many staples across multiple formats have seen their growth mature and, ultimately, stagnate.  Even my favorite Old School format has seen some stagnation in price growth in most cases lately.  Legacy, too has become uninspiring from an MTG finance standpoint.

But that may be about to change.

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.