Category Archives: Casual Fridays

Are we buying the Totally TubuLAIR Superdrop?

Yes, dear reader, this is a third superdrop in a six-week period, and there is no sign that this train is slowing down. We were expecting a Superdrop to go with the TMNT set, and here we go with six more sets of cards. 

So let’s talk about the specifics of the superdrop, what the use rates are, and what’s worth buying when it’s available in a week and a half on March 2.

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Building the Face Commanders for Secrets of Strixhaven

This week, we were given a leak of the five face commanders for the Secrets of Strixhaven decks, and it’s the five characters we know, in the color pairs that are both doing it different yet can still feel the same. We don’t know the stated theme of the decks, and we don’t know what’s in the decks, but the reveal has already caused some spikes and now I want to look at some potential includes. 

Generally speaking, I’d want to wait for the decks to come out before buying, but you may proceed with caution. Reprints aren’t impossible, and even if you have a fancy version, the players might not come out to get your shiny copy. (case in point: foil Flourishing Defenses)

Let’s talk about some Commanders!

Dina, Essence Brewer

Sacrifice! Counters! Black and green does its thing! You can build around either ability and have a grand time.

Kami of Whispered Hopes (promo foil $8) – The Kami both gives you more counters and is a really great target for those counters from Dina’s ability. Should be high on the inclusion list.

Ophiomancer (mh3 foil $1.50) – When you’re doing a lot of sacrificing, you want lots of fodder, and ol’ Ophio has always been great at that. 

Erebos, Bleak-Hearted (Showcase foil $4.50) – Another card that complements Dina nicely, allowing you to get the extra card every time, and Dina’s ability offsets the life loss.

Branching Evolution (PIP EA Surge $13) – If you’re doing the counters thing, do it more.

The Earth Crystal (Borderless Foil $16) – Your deck might have more black cards, but it’s likely you’ll want the bonus counters no matter what.

Commander Planeswalker! Let’s go looking at the passive, because the Spirits don’t get haste, nor do they keep the abilities. Plus there aren’t a lot of good RW spirits to build around. 

Quintorious, Loremaster (MAT special foil $0.50) – There’s a boatload of these on TCGPlayer, and I’m not sure the commander is good enough to get people excited. However, there might be a brick play here, buying them up for two bits and selling to a buylist for $1.50 each.

Squee, Goblin Nabob (MYB2 foil $20) – There’s a Secret Lair foil from the advent calendar that you might want instead, but the Future Sight frame is cool and much, much rarer. Squee is a great setup card for QHC if it stays in play, which is not a given.

Containment Construct (NEO foil $2) – If you’re discarding with the ability, why not get the token too?

Emeria, the Sky Ruin (nonfoils $19) – If you can get enough plains, you get the creature back plus a token!

Sephiroth, Fallen Hero (EA $4) – Make tokens, modify the tokens, keep the loop going. I don’t need much excuse to spec on Final Fantasy cards, either. 

Any Phoenix, any Disturb card, any Escape card, all of these do the thing that Quintorious wants to do, so take your pick. 

I have a Zaxara deck, so I’m well used to broken X spells. To start, you’re going to want lots of +1/+1 counter enablers, but the real meat of the deck is sweet X spells. 

Elementalist’s Palette (EA $5) – I’m hoping for a sweet foil version of this card soon, as if you get it to trigger twice, it gets out of hand real fast.

Unbound Flourishing (SLD foil $15) – Really, all of Calling All Hydra Heads is tempting, but this is the best card for Zimone out of the Lair.

Springleaf Parade (EA $6) – James clued me in to this card, and it does so much that you want to do. X spells often make tokens, and now you get mana out of them!

Doppelgang (FEA $1.50) – It’s a ridiculous mana cost, but this can do things no other card can do. Remember you only get to keep one copy if you pick a legendary creature.

Sporoocyst (Surge Foil $8) – One thing about these decks is that they are super hungry for mana. Getting even two lands off of this is a big help.

Nexos (regular $5) – These and the Surge Foil got bought out hard when Zimone was spoiled, so there might not be a lot of profit left, but if the deck takes off this is an absolutely absurd card. 

Killian will play very similar to Eriette of the Charmed Apple, and we’ve already seen Nurgle’s Rot spike thanks to the new Killian. However, you want to do two things: replay enchantments and have creatures attack with your enchantments on them. It’s plenty possible for you to focus on one aspect of the other, but really, Eriette does it much better. Killian gives one goad trigger, and then maybe you can get something good going on your side too. 

Gift of Immortality (pack foil $14) – This should be a top include for Killian, letting you put the commander and the enchantment into play over and over again. There’s a moment of vulnerability, but exile removal will also make you sad, so you won’t get away with it too much.

Greater Auramancy (WOT anime nonfoil $23) – I think the foils at $60 are tempting, and it won’t take much to move the confetti foils up a good bit, but I am staking a claim on these giving you the best return. It’s pretty easy to imagine these going to $50, whereas the foil doubling to $100 or the confetti hitting $200 is much more difficult. 

Eye of Nidhogg (FEA $2) – There’s a lot of enchantments that give a creature goaded status, and those are all worthy includes, but this one keeps coming back, giving you more cards! Plus there’s not all that many copies on TCG.

Rootha is a tough sell. There’s a lot of cards that will give you tokens for casting a spell, like Chrome Host Seedshark or Manaform Hellkite. Rootha has to be in play at the beginning of combat, with the spell already cast this turn. Casting more than one doesn’t even help you, as you only get one token.

Arcane Bombardment (FEA $6) – It’s convoluted, but it’s got a lot of potential.

Fires of Invention (FEA $2) – I don’t think a lot of Commander players are willing to give up playing on opponents’ turns, but there’s not a lot of cheap ways to start casting spells for free.

Galvanoth (pack foil $1) – Really the perfect complement to Rootha, giving you freebies all over the place.

River Song’s Diary (FEA Surge $3.50) – Someone bought a dozen of these this week, and I think it’s related to Rootha because it’s pretty easy to set up. 

Submerge (The List nonfoils $3.50) – Have Rootha in play, cast free spell, attack for 5 flying. Seems good.

Big Score/Pirate’s Pillage/Unexpected Windfall (bulk) – Three cards that do the same thing, but you need six mana. Cast the spell, get treasures, cast the commander, get a 4/4 flying haste. Not terrible.

Again, these are all specs that could be good, but I want to wait till the decklists are revealed before going deep. Happy building!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Are We Buying The Fallout X Magic Secret Lair: Rad Superdrop?

It’s been forever since the last time we got a Secret Lair! We were supposed to get Monster Hunter on December 1st, but Wizards pulled that after the litany of errors and the cacophony of unhappy hunters. That means it’s been more than two months! We’re definitely never getting a gap like that again in 2026. Heck, we’re getting a real set every two months!

This is the second Fallout Secret Lair drop and it’s timed to come out a little after Fallout’s second season has aired, so we’re getting some new cards, some awesome reprints, and a little something for everyone.

For each card, I’ll give you the number of special printings, and the current retail for each. In addition, I’ll give you the EDHREC number, because that’s a great indication of the popularity of the card, even if EDHREC is skewed towards precons and the most invested players, it’s still data worth knowing. Also, all the Lairs are $30 for the nonfoils and $40 for the foils, unless otherwise noted.

Lucy, The Ghoul, and Maximus are new to Magic and have no stats to speak of.

Pre-War Formalwear (FEA $8, 18k decks)

Spirit Mantle (M12 foil $15, 68k decks)

T-45 Power Armor (FEA $2, 13k decks)

First off, this Lair is $40 for nonfoils and $50 for the foils. That’s important context when the cards themselves are kind of mid. Mantle is a popular choice in decks where a Commander needs to get through and deal damage to a player, but it’s not expensive. The three new cards are interesting, and I think The Ghoul is the most powerful, by far, but I also think there are going to be some crazy Energy combos with Maximus and Lucy is just a value engine, since tokens are made all the damn time in Commander. 

Considering that this is the headliner, I’m expecting supply to be high on this one but as we’ll get to, I think FOMO will make this sell out eventually and it’ll turn a profit. I don’t think the cards are good enough on their own, just so I’m clear, but I’m preparing for the psychological aspect and the bot networks to make it sell out.

Yoshimaru, Ever Faithful (EA $12, Magicfest $30, SLD 2021 $80, 15k as partner and 30k as card)

Arcane Signet (tons, all the decks)

Sol Ring (tons, all the decks)

Lightning Greaves (50 printings, most borderless are $5-$10, 2 million decks)

Patchwork Banner (pack foil $8, 307k decks)

No, seriously, Signet has 80 printings and Sol Ring has 122. 

Yoshi is popular in Jodah as a legend that’s only one mana, Signet and Sol Ring can’t really go wrong, Greaves is everywhere, and this is the first special printing for the Banner. Most importantly, though, this is a Lair focusing on adorable dogs, and we’ve proven, over and over again, that it’s a recipe for success. 

I’m going to buy every copy I can of this, and I encourage you to do the same. I fully expect this to be the first Lair to sell out, just because plenty of folks will buy the bundle and then add a couple of these to the cart. This is pure profit, easy money, Eddie/Kieran Yanner level of demand, thanks to the combo of staples and good boys.

Ripples of Potential (EA $7, 105k decks)

Mutational Advantage (FEA $10, 60k decks)

The Wise Mothman (Surge Showcase $200, Foil Showcase $20, 28k decks as commander, #11 in last two years)

Mindcrank (NPH pack foil $40, SLD foil $21, 121k decks)

Mesmeric Orb (Retro foil $30, 109k decks)

Wizards likes to do this sort of thing, where there’s one commander, and several of the accessories. This time, they picked one of the most popular commanders of the last couple years, and added several favorite cards. Does it matter that Mindcrank just got a badass version in Iron Maiden? Not at all! This is a fantastic Lair and I plan to max out here as well. Rad counters are just too good a theme and too fun an experience for me to pass up these cards. 

Tinybones, Trinket Thief (SLD foil $35, 4k as commander, 19k as card)

Isshin, Two Heavens as One (FCA foil $55, 25k decks as commander, 69k as card)

The Deck of Many Things (Ampersand foil $25, 28k decks)

Caged Sun (Surge foil $8, Retro foil $5, 137k decks)

Nuka-Cola Vending Machine (Borderless foil $40, Surge foil $80, 89k decks)

The big draws here are Tinybones and the Nuka-Cola Machine. The Machine is a terrifying card in any Food-based deck, and thank goodness the Treasure comes in tapped. We’re a few months away from The Hobbit, and where there’s Hobbits, there’s Food synergies. I fully expect this to get to a floor in Dump Week and take off from there. Isshin just got a sweet Lightning version in the Final Fantasy bonus sheet, so that should recover nicely unless they go for a third printing in the next few months. 

I’m in for this Lair, but mainly for the big two. 

We don’t know what the bundle prices will be (my expectations are that it’ll be a very meager savings) but I don’t mind spending the money, because we’ll get a Silver Shroud Costume promo for every $149 we spend. This is $45 for the surge foil, but a regular frame, and even $12 for the regular nonfoil, and it’s in 67k decks. You’ll get at least $20 for selling that, and every bit helps bring down the price. 

My personal plan is to max out on bundles, and add extras of everything but Vault 33. I don’t know what the max amounts will be, but I’m expecting it’ll be limited to two of each item/bundle again. I’m going after foils and nonfoils equally here.

Finally, please notice that Wizards is telling you to get in the queue and be ready Monday morning. You can load a cart starting an hour early, and when 9 am (12 noon EST) hits, you’ll be randomized for your place in line. So get logged in, get your carts ready, and keep your fingers crossed!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

The Mana Math of Lorwyn Eclipsed

With seven sets coming in 2026, there’s going to be a lot of times I say these words: It’s time to do some math! 

That’s right, Lorwyn Eclipsed is about to be released, and we need to do some arithmetic in order to figure out how likely it is that Collector Boosters will contain what we want.

So strap on a calculator, kids, and let’s get into it!

In running these numbers, I’m just using Wizards’ released information about the makeup of Collector Booster packs. The focus is on those CBs, because that’s where the best stuff will be. There’s a tiny chance of these showing up in Play Boosters, but generally, don’t waste your time with those if you like to crack packs. 

First off, let’s talk about nonfoil cards. 

It’s not every set where Wizards puts two nonfoils in the CBs this way, but when they do, it leads to a LOT of nonfoils entering the market. Especially the rares of each type, you’re at just over 83% of these slots having rares. Definitely could lead to some bricks being bought down the line, depending on the cards. 

Even with the double-up on the slot, you’re still looking at ten boxes of CBs to get that one fetchland in particular. Pretty tough pull, as nonfoils go.I’d look for these to be a little bit pricier than expected.

The foil slot, as always, has the best stuff:

The official MSRP of a CB pack is $27, so that’s what I’m using for my estimates.

In case you missed the bit in the article about collecting this set, we’re done getting Japanese-language Fracture Foils in English-language CBs. Those will only be found in the Japanese-language CBs. This is phrased as a permanent change, but we’ll see if that holds. 

As for the cards in this slot, we’re not seeing anything too wildly rare. Everything can be had in under 200 packs, which is pretty good for this sort of thing. If you’re expecting the mega-rares of the recent Universes Beyond sets, well, this won’t be as difficult.

With the shift in Fracture Foils, now we’ve got an interesting case. We know precisely what the ratio is of regular foil to Fracture Foil, it’s 9:1 and that means the expectation is that if a Fracture Foil costs $100, then the regular foil should be $11. To put another way, according to the math, nine regular foils should add up to the price of one Fracture Foil. 

The problem here is that we don’t know what the demand will look like, and if the Fracture Foil collectors was to go ham, they will, and throw the ratio all out of whack. As an example, let’s look at the Japan Showcase of Bloodthirsty Conqueror. The regular foil is right at $100, and the Fracture Foil is just about three times that much. (both of those are in English, for the record.)

Blessed few of the Fracture Foils currently have a ratio near 9:1, but that’s with the JPN versions getting opened. We’ll have to keep an eye on where the prices end up. 

The Special Guests part of this is about in line with other sets too. Specific cards are usually between 150-200 packs, and that’s what we’ve got here. There will be some excellent targets among the foils, I think, but the truly interesting case will be the nonfoils. Those are only found in the Play Boosters, and you’re 1 in 55 to get a SPG card. Since there’s 20 options, that means it’ll take 1,100 Play Boosters to get one particular nonfoil. 

Using Wizards’ MSRP, we can see that the cost in Play Boosters will be just over six grand, and that’s roughly $900 more than it’ll cost to open a foil version. It’s rare enough for the foils and nonfoils to be close in price, much less have the nonfoil as costing more. I’ll be watching to see if there’s deals to be had early, but this is another case where collectors might end up pushing the price to illogical levels.

The final point that jumps out at me is that 62.8% of the CBs opened will have a Rare FEA, a Foil Rare Fable Frame, or a Foil Rare Borderless card. They have a vested interest in keeping mythics at a lower drop rate, but if you add in the 10% of SPGs, now you’re talking about only 1 in 4 Collector Boosters having a foil mythic, and that’s a bit of a change from previous sets. It remains to be seen if that’ll damage the finances of those mythics, but really, it’ll be all about Commander demand. 

Last but not least, let’s talk about the Double Rainbow Foil Serialized Bitterblossom Bearer. I’ve made a table to show some of the likely drop rates, and how they contribute revenue for Wizards.

($250 is our estimated distributor buy price, or what Wizards makes when they sell the boxes to a distributor)

For a little context, Lord of the Rings Holiday edition was at 1.5 million packs, and the main summer set was 3.3 million. We’re estimating this is closer to Edge of Eternities’ print run, which was probably in the realm of 2 to 2.5 million packs. So I’m giving the estimate of about 1 in 5,000 Collector Boosters to snag a serialized card.

I want to repeat, this is an estimate. If you get me some solid data on how many Collector Boosters Wizards makes for a set, I’d love to have that piece of information.

I hope these charts are helpful as you decide what to buy and what to open. If you have questions or concerns, I’m happy to talk about the specifics on social media or in the ProTrader Discord. Good luck with your packs!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.