Welcome back to the Mana Math series, where I take the avalanche of information Wizards gives us and try to make sense of drop rates and how easy it will be to get certain cards from Collector Boosters. 

Marvel Super Heroes has several art variations, and frustratingly, Source Material cards that use the same set code as the Spider-Man cards. Presumably, this will carry on into the next sets of cards, and if the Marvel experiment goes the full six years, that’s a ton of cards over a wide timeframe all with the same code. Yuck.

Still, there’s numbers to analyze and estimates to make, so let’s dive into some data. 

Most of my information is taken off of the Collecting Marvel Super Heroes article, though with a lot of clicking around. They are required to give us the drop rates in booster packs as percentages, but they don’t take it to the next logical level and tell us the packs. Party because they don’t have to, and partly because saying it’s a percentage makes it feel like we have more of a chance.

Humans are so frequently gamblers, I don’t see why they bother. 

In case you want to check my math: Take the percent chance for that category, divide by the number of potential cards, and then take the inverse of the result. It’s not more complicated than that, though it does unlock a lot of other analysis. I like to include the cost if you’re buying packs at retail as well, just to remind you that if you want singles, buy singles. Don’t open packs looking for a specific card. You’re always going to lose money. 

We’re going to focus on rares and mythics, if you want to talk uncommons, drop me a line on the ProTrader Discord or other social media and I’ll get you what you’re looking for. All of these stats are from the Collector Boosters, where the sweetest cards live.

First, the nonfoils in special frames :

Note this does include the double-sided mythics, which got separated into another slot for some reason.

Also, I don’t understand why this has 4.5% for the Source Material, when there’s a separate slot dedicated to that subset, with a 25%/75% split, that’s every 80 packs for a nonfoil and every 240 for a foil.

It’s also notable that the Mythic Rare Scene Nonfoils are 1/306, while the foils are 1/250. That’s 20% harder to find, but you can be certain that the foils are likely to be more expensive than the nonfoils because that’s how we’re programmed.

Now the traditional foils, in the regular frame:

As you’ll see, moving the five DFCs to a different slot this way bumped the # of packs needed significantly, making the DFC Mythics the hardest things to open from these packs that isn’t a special Mind Stone. 

And finally, Booster Fun Foil: 

These drop rates are pretty reasonable, all things considered. The weirdest thing, as previously mentioned, is how DFC Mythic Panels/Logos are way up above 1/350, and the non-DFC are 1 in 200/222 in Collector Boosters.

Now I realize that you’re looking for the drop rate of the Gauntlet version of The Mind Stone, and the Cosmic version as well. The Cosmic version is limited to around 150 copies, per official statements, so that’s a pretty damn rare drop.

The Gauntlet version is trickier to estimate. However, we can do that in a roundabout way to get a very rough estimate. If the Cosmic Soul Stone is going for around $30,000, and the Gauntlet has an average price of $1500, that’s a nice 20:1 ratio. I understand that’s not a perfect way to gauge how many of each are in circulation, but if you get better data, do let me know.

At 20:1, that means there’s roughly 3,000 Gauntlets out there. Back in the Mana Math of Spider-Man, I estimated 19:1 using a different method, so I don’t think I’m too far off. From here, it’s all about the estimated print run. We know that the first LOTR was a print run of 3.3 million Collector Boosters (they told us the exact % of 1/1 The One Ring dropping) and now that we’re two years later, I’m figuring a nice round 5 million. That’s a 33% increase over the two years, and if that feels high, well, let me know what data you have.

If there are 5 million Collector Booster packs, it’ll take 1,667 packs to open a Gauntlet stone. At 4 million, it’s 1,333 packs. At these drop rates, you could open 2,000 packs, get none or three, and that falls within accepted limits. Just multiply those odds by 20 if you want the estimate for the packs to open a Cosmic Stone. Side note: at 3.3 million, the most conservative estimate of Collector Booster print runs, it would cost $836,000 at retail prices to open enough packs, and again, that’s a should on the packs. No guarantees.

One thing that I’ve been asked about, and want to clarify: If there are more versions, that does affect the total number of a card in circulation, at least from Collector Boosters. Let’s take an example: The Ten Rings vs. King T’Challa.

The Ten Rings has a regular version and Panel version, while King T’Challa has those plus a logo and a scene printing. Those special versions are 1/357 pulls, and if we go back to the 5 million estimate, that’s about 14,000 copies of each version, for a total of 28,000 more special foils in existence. Keep in mind playability matters above all else, but if there’s a ton of special versions out there, that does keep the overall price a bit lower.

As ever, please, don’t open these packs chasing a specific card. These are sealed lottery tickets, and collectibles all their own, but do not ever get one of these and crack it thinking you’ll make all your money back. You’d be better off buying one of everything and just sitting on it than going for the high-variance route of opening the packs. 

Again, if you want to talk about my methods, estimations, or results, please look me up on the ProTrader Discord, or reach out on social media.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

There’s a lot of cool stuff in the set. 

Some of the new cards do new things in a new color, and that can set off a whole set of spikes. Let’s look at what has been previewed so far, and some potential specs. Many of the legends that were previewed early, like Doctor Doom, King of Latveria, I’ve already written about and we’ll see if any of those specs get there. (Come on, Mesmeric Trance!)

I’ve chosen four of the new legends, cards that do a neat thing in a way not really done before. No promises that these are the only legends people want to build around, just my first pass. 

Squirrel Girl is an early favorite, and that’s because there hasn’t been a Commander who collects Squirrels this way. Chatterfang isn’t a Squirrel-based creature, and the BG legends from Bloomburrow never took off. Squirrel Girl goes infinite with a couple of different cards, and those are the first targets.

Earthcraft – The ProTrader Discord picked up on this early, and bought out many of the copies available on TCGPlayer, and it’s a one-card, four-Squirrel, infinite-rodent machine. Earthcraft has long been a combo card, and this is the newest card to make use of it. 

Cryptolith Rite/Enduring Vitality/Springleaf Parade – Green needs some way to give haste plus a way to make tokens tap for mana.

Supportive Parents – It’s a version of Earthcraft, but you need to start with eight Squirrels. This is an uncommon, and there’s a boatload of them on TCGPlayer, so it might be tough to make money on this. 

Chitterspitter – Lots of random cards that are Squirrels or refer to Squirrels will spike. This should be among them.

Nut Collector – There’s a foil borderless Dominaria Remastered version that should especially go up.

Krosan Beast – Magic players love a good joke, and it won’t take many purchases to make this go up, considering the small quantities out there.

Shuri, the Black Panther is an artifact commander based in GW, which doesn’t get a lot of love. That said, this color combo can do more than just destroy artifacts! Please keep in mind that there is still a decklist to be released for this one, and some of these specs might be reprinted.

Merry, Warden of Isengard – This being from the LTC set means it’s already under pressure from The Hobbit set that’s incoming, and it’ll be popular for adding a swarm component to Shuri’s ability.

Argivian Archaeologist – Being on the Reserved List means it’s already pricey, but if Shuri gets popular, a handful of sales will make this take off.

Brilliant Restoration – One thing UR artifact decks don’t have is mass reanimate like this. 

Hanna’s Custody – Or mass protection like this. Much depends on if you want to target your own stuff.

Illustrious Wanderglyph – Already near $20, I strongly think this will be in the deck.

Machinist’s Arsenal – This should avoid a reprint, since it is from Final Fantasy.

Oswald Fiddlebender – I don’t know if there’s restrictions on Wizards reprinting D&D-themed cards, but this is another strong candidate for the deck.

Scourglass – Notably, this will destroy Shuri but leave most of your deck intact.

Thousand-Moon Smithy – A great card in artifact decks!

The Prydwen, Steel Flagship – Just an amazing set of synergies for the deck. More fodder, and fodder that grows when you do the thing you want to do!

MODOK is very good at what he does, which is entering play and immediately going to work as a connive effect. This allows you to do two things: Draw cards and Discard cards. I wonder what we can abuse here…

Maha, Its Feathers Night – A combo indeed, making it so your opponents’ creatures all just die and stay dead and die as soon as they enter play. Indestructible doesn’t mean what it used to!

Sheoldred, the Apocalypse – Already a great commander card, this turbocharges MODOK in a wonderful way. 

Syr Konrad, the Grim – Make those discards count!

Bone Miser – Turn your discards into profit!

Starving Revenant – A great way to put the engine into overdrive!

Cryptcaller Chariot – Since this makes Zombies, you can add a third combo piece and really go to town. 

Feast of Sanity – Slow your life loss and increase someone else’s pain all at once!

Starscream, Power Hungry – This takes some doing, but if you’re the monarch and Starscream is in the proper mode, MODOK becomes a killing machine.

Photon rewards you for having lots of creatures, and casting noncreature spells. Sounds like a recipe for everything that makes token creatures and isn’t a creature! (Warning: in early testing, this deck turned into a calculus problem. Lots of dice and InfiniTokens required.)

Monastery Monk/Young Pyromancer/Prismari Pianist/Anim Pakal – Pakal wants stuff to attack, but the rest of these want you to just cast spells and make more things. Easy enough!

Forth Eorllingas! – There’s no shortage of good X spells for this deck, but this is among the best, giving you a hasty army and likely the monarchy. 

Rise of the Hobgoblins – Another great X spell for the deck, it also can make your stuff a lot less profitable to block.

Warleader’s Call – Purphoros dealing 2 is also a card to think about, but the Call is just climbing up and up.

Champions from Beyond – So many plans in one, this gives you tokens, and bonuses for attacking with the whole mess of them!

Angelic Aberration – A ‘win more’ card, but a great way to upgrade your tokens from 1/1 on the ground to 4/4 in the air.

Divine Visitation – Or you could skip the middle step!

Wildfire Awakener – One of my favorite ‘win more’ cards ever, this turns your batch of tokens into twice that many tokens, which tap for damage!

This list is by no means exhaustive, and there are likely to be other legends that pop off and form a whole new alliance. When they go off, keep track of everything via our ProTrader Discord, and the profits will follow.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Today, I want to go over a feeling that many of us have gone through. 

You had a plan for a spec, you bought in at the right time, and then just as predicted, it went up. You posted at the perfect price at the most opportune moment, and locked in a significant profit, and did that process over and over, netting yourself the funds needed to move on to the next target.

And the card kept going up.

How do you deal with that? Why did it happen? Are there ways to mitigate it? Should we mitigate it? Today is less about the picks and more about the mentality, so come with me and let’s review what success means. 

This topic is timely for me, as just a month ago at MagicCon Vegas, I sold off a stack of my leftover English-language Hatsune Miku cards. I’d already made significant profits by repackaging the four individual lairs and selling them as a group on Ebay. (I was in at $160 per foil set, and selling at $600+, a most delightful margin!) I had a dozen or so assorted Lairs that I’d cracked, looking for a Snapcaster, and I sold off the individual foils and nonfoils from every set other than the original Sakura Superstar.

Again, all of this was profit on top of profit, and I got $23 for each of six Rainbow Foil Miku, Divine Diva, a card that was selling for around $45 as of a month ago.

In case you didn’t hear, someone’s Goblinstorm deck was shipped with what appears to be a Hatsune Miku Commander deck, with a reskinned Trostani, Selesnya’s Voice as the only card visible through the sealed plastic. As a result, everything that is Miku and is in green or white has gone up like mad, and the cheapest copy of that same Elspeth is now just under $100 on TCGPlayer.

This is only the most recent (and therefore most painful) example of a phenomenon that absolutely will happen to you the longer you’re buying and selling something. It happens with stocks, it happens with real estate, it happens in crypto. There’s no single name for the phenomenon, which is interesting, as I thought folks in the stock market had a cute phrase for just about everything, like a ‘dead cat bounce’ or ‘economic moat’ or ‘diamond hands.’ In the ProTrader Discord, I’m open to coining a phrase, if you’ve got a fun idea get it in there and let’s make it work.

Let’s start with the feelings that follow a post-sale spike.

First of all:  You won! You had a plan, you did it, and you made money. Hell yes! High Five! Buy yourself that sweet foil with the profits. Recognize that you did it. Other people might make more, and as time passes, you might feel bad about what you made and when, but wallowing in regret will only lead to you making bad decisions, like not selling when you could make a profit. 

Magic finance is littered with examples of holding too long, and most spikes represent opportunities for you to sell and make your profits. Let’s take a recent example of a Commander who made an enormous amount of cards spike: Hashaton, Scarab’s Fist. This was a card that premiered in Aetherdrift’s Commander decks in January 2025, and immediately made a big splash. One of the cards that went wild was Tortured Existence, a Stronghold common that went from $3 to a top price of $14. 

The reason you sell into a spike is because there’s no guarantee that the prices stay high. Attention moves on. Tortured Existence has gotten a Secret Lair printing since its spike and can now be had around $5 a copy. If you have a $3 card go up to $14, you set your prices at just over $10, make your 3x profit, and move on. You’re gaining cash that you can use on your next spec, or roll it into value for a Commander deck, or remodel your kitchen. 

Please remember a tough lesson to learn personally: Your cards have a ‘worth’ only when you go to sell them. The moment you do sell them, that’s when the profit is locked in. Owning a card that is spiking feels great, but if you don’t move to liquidate the card, you run the risk of it settling back down at the post-spike price.

The right time to sell is tricky. Let’s stick with the Miku example and focus on foil Elvish Mystic, the bonus inclusion for the first Miku drop. It was at $30 or so, and here’s the current set of prices for the evening of 5/28:

If you have one copy in a Commander deck, you should be tempted to sell. This is a huge jump and not one I’d expect to stay high. I would respect your desire to sell at $50, and I would understand your desire to list at $96.69 and wait a bit. We don’t even know when the Miku deck will come out, and as we’re seeing in the midst of Goblinstorm sales, selling into the original preview hype can mean less profit than selling when people get cards in hand. The correct play with the Mystic could be to wait until people get the Miku deck and then more folks are in on the buying.

We can’t know for sure what the right play is, and that feels brutal. We are conditioned to avoid the situations that make us feel bad, including the feeling of selling too early.  However, there are two concrete plans you can implement to help prevent this set of negative feelings, neither of which works after the fact.

System #1: Make the plan and trust the plan.

It’s remarkably easy to have your emotions in a moment derail what is usually an orderly set of feelings. Buy the card, sell the card. When we start adding regret, though, and the potential of regret, things can really go off the rails. In poker, this is often referred to as being on tilt, where your emotions cloud your judgment like you’re Anakin about to slaughter some younglings. 

When you make a plan ahead of time, you free yourself from that doubt and regret. Doesn’t matter if the card goes up or goes down, you got the profit you wanted and you had a plan for that profit! You are a success and doing better every time! Having a system, a set of preplanned sell points, allows you to worry less about what could be.

And if it looks like a card might keep going up, well, that leads to the other systematic approach.

System #2: Cover your entrance costs, and everything after that is free money. 

This is how I approached the Miku cards. I’d already sold a ton of the cards, and I was way ahead on all of it. Whatever I got from these leftovers was just super bonus money, and should be viewed as a nice addition to the systematic profit I’ve already made happen. 

The common variation on this is to buy a card, and when it spikes, immediately sell just enough to cover what you paid. After that, hold forever or sell immediately, and you’ll always be winning when it comes to your sales. This is a systematic approach, but allowing you to flex as the situation changes. 

Whichever plan you have, I also want to tell you that the social aspect is big. It helps a lot to hear from other people that you did the thing and you did it well, even if there was more profit to be had. Some people like to buy cards and then never sell them, and down that path lies madness and storage units and lots of cobwebs covering mildewed boxes. Magic is turning into a game of churn, and if we want to maximize profits, we need to execute our plans and keep up with it all. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.