Secret Lairs have been one of the most profitable parts of Magic finance this year. The combination of certain reprints and unique cards, plus the system for giving them out, has been ripe for big markups and fast gains. 

However, not everything Secret Lair has been equally profitable, and there are also examples where the psychology (or foolishness) really come into play. For more than a few Lairs, it’s not about the cards, but the item itself, the collectability. So let’s get into some examples, and see where we can gain some insights for future drops.

I’ve written before about what we want from a Secret Lair, but there have proven to be some additional layers. The biggest one, and the one that we can’t effectively plan for, is the quantity printed/does the Lair sell out. There’s some folks who can extract a number from the Secret Lair site and figure out when the Low Stock notice goes up, but that’s not always reliable info and even knowing the number doesn’t guarantee that a lower number sells out. 

The recent Playstation drop has some great examples of the two ways a Lair can go. Of the seven drops, three of them have sold out. Two sold out the first morning, and Horizon took a couple weeks to drain out completely. The ones that sold out, Horizon, Ghost of Tsushima and God of War: Greek, all have impressive jumps in the sealed prices and for the singles, but a lot of the attention on the singles has gone to the mechanically unique cards. The other four drops, though, are languishing on the site, and will likely be available for some time to come. 

Interestingly, during Dump Week for this drop, you could get some deals. The cheapest copy of God of War: Norse, which didn’t sell out and is still on the site for $50, sold a lot of copies for under $45 and some even just above $40. Now there could have been high shipping costs added on, that’s a game people like to play, but it also reflects that folks likely bought bundles and were dumping the ones that had the lowest prices. 

For these more recent Lairs, the singles are keeping up with the sealed prices, but there’s more than a few Lairs where the prices just do not add up, and you should always take a beat and check on that when you want a whole Lair. Case in point is Stranger Things, which thanks to Netflix is having a bump in the number of Lairs sold, but let’s look at what is going on. The individual foil cards add up to $85, and that includes a $10 foil Clue token. The sealed package is going for $150 right now, and there’s no mystery bonus card goosing the value of sealed Lairs too. 

My guess is that it’s collectors at work, people who want to have the entire set and don’t care about paying extra. It’s anyone’s guess if the sealed set will be opened, but as long as folks are buying, does it matter? I sold my last sealed for $120 last month, and with the series finale coming on New Year’s Eve, I’d recommend selling any lingering copies before then. Interest is back up, but this is it. The kids originally put on the cards are now college students!

Mainly, though, we want to pay attention to the Lairs that sell out. That leads to instant profits, and in this era where Heroic Intervention is going to get four printings in a year (Final Fantasy SLD, Spider-Man Bonus, Avatar Bonus, and Marvel Super Heroes x3!) I’m less and less interested in holding special printings for a long time. There’s too much churn, and money to be made, in fast flips, but again, only if you’re accurately picking Secret Lairs. If you buy everything then you’re going to have a lot of product that takes a long time to sell.

One thing that I’m not seeing when it comes to sealed vs. singles is bonus cards making a big difference. The Final Fantasy Lairs have wonderful bonuses in the pitch Elementals, and those Lairs aren’t super juiced. Same thing for Sonic, Spongebob, and others. Heck, even the original serialized, the reverse Viscera Seer, isn’t enough to keep the price of the Phyrexian Praetors drop high. 

Another non-factor (and likely a future article) is language. We’ve seen this trend over time, where the Japan Showcase cards in foil and fracture foil command much lower prices than the English versions, but non-English versions of cards are almost all worth less in the modern day, or at least for modern cards. Lairs with two languages, such as Final Fantasy or Hatsune Miku, demonstrate a big gap in what people will pay for the same art but a different language. Final Fantasy Game Over, as an example, has ENG foil sealed at $90 and sealed JPN for $40 on TCGPlayer. That doesn’t include the problem James and I have talked about, where for singles in Japanese you have to choose that filter. These are different listings, and similar prices can be found on eBay as well. 

Final Fantasy Lairs have access to the five elementals in both languages, and even those bonus drops have a big price gap too. Bonuses are a nice thing to have, but clearly, people aren’t interested in digging for lottery tickets.

So to wrap it up: Pay attention to the gap between single and sealed Lairs, resell the ones that sold out as fast as you can, and don’t expect bonuses to carry the weight for you. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

We’re heading into the time that’s usually a lull, but don’t worry, there’s lots of speculating and likely some news dumps coming up.

On January 23, we get Lorwyn Rising, and while six weeks seems like a lot of time, holidays make that time go by incredibly quickly. We know a little bit about the set, including the Commander decks, and that’s enough data to start thinking about cards worth a spec.

We’re getting two Commander decks, and while some of that will be new cards, some will be reprints. I expect that some of the cards on this list will end up in the decks, or the reprint/bonus sheet of the main set, and there’s nothing I can do about that. Waiting is a guarantee that you won’t get burned, but it also means you might miss out. Best advice I can offer is to be prepared, and as soon as we know information, pounce!

First of all, let’s go over the Commander deck called Blight Curse, which apparently is a -1/-1 counters deck in Jund colors. This is a theme that’s been visited before, but never really in Commander, so there’s some juicy, juicy targets. Like I said though, we’re running a risk with potential reprints. When the decklist is released, it’ll be time to pounce. I also expect this to have a couple of pricey cards (Necroskitter, Yawgmoth, etc.) to boost its total value.

Black Sun’s Zenith (Avatar or full-art) – There’s a lot of versions that are already cheap, so my expectation is that this will be in the deck. If it isn’t, I’m partial to the older full-art version, but cheap borderless foils from the TLE set could have a nice jump. I’m not expecting much if it’s reprinted though. Note that this works the way you want it to with Hapatra, Nest of Scarabs, and Flourishing Defenses.

Blowfly Infestation – Basically this adds up counters until everything is dead, making it brutally efficient at making sure stuff with counters are always in play. Strong candidate for the deck.

Flourishing Defenses and Nest of Scarabs – Close to the same card, wonderfully efficient, very likely to be reprinted in the deck. Since the only foils are the pack foils, I’m not sure if those foils will jump much, but since supply is already low, some gain is almost guaranteed.

Hapatra, Vizier of Poisons – When Tarkir: Dragonstorm was announced to have a Temur Dragons Commander deck, we all thought Mirrym would be in there. Turns out, they don’t want to add old commanders to a precon that could be better than the new ones. Hapatra might fall into this category, but at only two colors, might be safe to add. 

Crumbling Ashes – One creature a turn doesn’t seem super powerful, but the synergy is strong and this should see some new interest.

Dusk Urchins – It’s a cute combo with Black Sun’s Zenith, or some other mega-counter-adding sort of thing, and nearly every card that says ‘-1/-1 counter’ on it will see some renewed interest. 

Fevered Convulsions – Yes, it’s six mana for the first counter and ten for the second, but if your deck is focused doing one thing, then this might be an attractive option. 

Necroskitter – One of the main things I expect to be in the Commander deck, this is powerful and specific to the theme. It’s not cheap, which is something they usually keep in mind when putting the decklist together. The price is all due to printings in 2008 and 2015, and a pretty measly inclusion rate in Commander decks. They love reprints that look expensive but are going to stay cheap when reprinted.

Spitting Dilophosaurus – One of the best things we know they probably won’t add to the deck, since it belongs to a different IP. They’ve done a smidgeon of reprints from specific IPs, but this should be a safe bet. The Jurassic Park logo version is already crazy expensive, but I would not be shocked to see the foils double or more.

The Scorpion God – A cheap price means it’s likely to be in the deck, and there’s some special versions to chase down. We might see this have a big jump on the Invocation version.

Yawgmoth, Thran Physician – I especially like the Amano nonfoils here, though the base version is pricey enough to not be included in the Commander deck and if that’s the case, I expect all versions to rise by a couple bucks. 

Massacre Girl, Known Killer – The special folder versions are under $10, and when added to a deck full of the right counters, it’s quite a wonderful addition.

Fallen Ferromancer and Hateflayer – If the deck needs ways to add counters to creatures, these are two good ways to do that. Pretty likely these are in the main deck, but if they aren’t, watch out.

Misfortune – It’s on the Reserved List! And while it’s the perfect colors, it’s a card that’s pretty terrible. Your opponents will almost certainly let you have the 4 life and bonus counters, which takes away the whole point. But as I’ve said, anything that mentions the minus counters and is in Jund will get some attention. I won’t be shocked if this has a spike, but it’s a thoroughly irrational one.

The other deck is five-color Elementals, called Dance of the Elements, and there’s a lot of potential in this as well. Given that the main set has a lot of Elementals too, most of the sweet cards should get a basic reprint, like Smokebraider. However, there’s a few that I’d like to keep an eye on. 

Creeping Trailblazer – There’s so many Elementals to choose from, they can’t reprint them all. I think this is one of the contenders to get overlooked, and so we might see the six-year-old foils see a pretty jump.

Chandra’s Embercat – Chandra and Elementals have a long history, and a lot of her cards make Elementals or care about the creature type in some way. This particular kitty is another card likely to be overlooked, but would a two-mana dork be good enough for the deck? I’m doubtful.

Flamekin Harbinger & Risen Reef – Almost certain to be in the Commander deck, there’s a Secret Lair from 2023 called The Stars Gaze Back that has special versions of these two, plus Omnath, Locus of Rage and Voice of Resurgence. The art is unique, and should be a sought-after upgrade for all the cards. Full disclosure: I’ve bought some of the sealed Lairs and some of the special foils.

Incandescent Soulstoke – There’s a chance this doesn’t get the reprint, because the two abilities together are incredibly good, but if it’s in there it’ll stay cheap and if it’s not it’ll go over $5 in foil. This one I’m keeping a close eye on when preview season is rolling.

Kaheera, the Orphanguard – Halo Foils are about $15, and that’s clearly the target here. A deck would happily add this to the 99, or play it as the actual Companion. I don’t think this would be in the precon deck, as they sort of view Companion as a mistake in Constructed, but who knows?

2-color and 3-color Omnath – Four- and Five- color versions of Omnath don’t care about Elementals in the same way, so the more basic versions are worth looking at. Locus of Rage has a SLD printing to watch, as I mentioned above, but Locus of the Roil might be a little too pricey at its base to be put into the Commander deck. I’m pretty sure this will be in, though, and I don’t think pack foils would move too much as a result.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Hello and welcome to the next installment of Mana Math! We’re dealing with Avatar: The Last Airbender, which is a full-size set, not a mini like Spider-Man was, so there’s a lot more to do in the draft format. We’re also focusing on the Collector Boosters, since the Play Boosters are absolute garbage if you want to pull anything that isn’t a regular-frame rare or mythic.

Let’s do some math!

Why am I skipping Play Boosters? Mainly because your odds are much worse than terrible. The wildcard slot in a play booster is 97.6% to give you a main-set nonfoil common, uncommon, rare, or mythic, making everything in a special frame less than 1%. In the actual rare/mythic slot, you’re 92.6% to get a nonfoil rare/mythic from the main set, leaving every variant crammed into that leftover 7.4%. And then the foil slot is more than half commons, with 98.5% of pulls being C/U/R/M from the main set, leaving a mere 1.5% of foils to be anything Booster Fun. That means in 200 packs, you’ll get three Booster Fun foils! Ugh. You might open one, and I hope you understand what incredible odds you beat to do so.

For each of these charts, I’m using Wizards’ MSRP of $38 for a single Collector Booster pack. I’m aware that the prices on boxes are varied, depending on where you get them, so if you have a different number, feel free to use that in your own calculations. Right now the lowest price on Avatar Collector Display Boxes is about $550 on TCG, but those are on presale mode till 11/21.

We’re going to go through the last three slots for a Collector Booster. In order, that’s nonfoil Booster Fun, the Source Material cards, and then the foils for Booster Fun. 

To start with, the nonfoils:

The rarest drops here are the battle poses and the mythic elemental frames, and compared to other nonfoils in the past, they will be surprisingly difficult to open. If any of them turn out to be strong in Commander or Constructed, the nonfoils could end up being pricier than expected. As a point of comparison, the hardest nonfoil to pull in Edge of Eternities was the nonfoil poster mythics, at about 1 in 375 and that’s a bit easier than the 460 or the 454 that represent the least common pulls for the nonfoils for TLA.

Next up, let’s look at the Source Material, 61 reprints using stills from the actual show:

I both love and hate that they use actual frames from the cartoon, but I adore that the artist is given as the season and episode.

All the cards are listed as mythic rarity, but all of them are mythic, so the actual rarity doesn’t matter. Compared to Spider-Man, this will be a little more difficult, since the comic book cover SPM cards dropped every 53/160 packs. There are some great hits in this list too, I can’t wait to get some more nonfoil The Great Henge for cheap.

This list also has Force of Negation and Teferi’s Protection as big hits, but there’s a whole lot of good hits too, but the supply on nonfoils should be pretty significant and you’ll have a chance to buy some very good deals. Contributing to this is the art, which can be polarizing, especially on something like Cruel Tutor or Bloodchief Ascension, focused on drawn animation that doesn’t feel as high-resolution as the things we’re used to. 

Finally, the foils:

Regrettably, I had to a bit of estimation here: adding up all the known percentages gives us 99% exactly, with the mythic rare EA, the Neon Ink, and the Raised Foil Aang listed at less than 1% each. 

So I used 0.45% for the EA, as that’s very close to the other mythics in this set. That leaves 0.55%, and I split that evenly among the Neon Ink and the Raised Foil, but I suspect that’s wrong, going by the prices The Soul Stone is fetching in premium printings. I suspect that it’ll be a split where the Raised Foil is in the 2000-3000 pack range, but in the absence of data, all I can do is speculate. If we get better data, I’ll update this post. 

Overall, we’re looking at pretty reasonable drop rates for everything but those Neon Ink and the Raised Foil. I can’t predict if this raised foil will have the same rarity as the raised foil textless Soul Stone, but all things are possible when there’s five cards and just 1% of slots left. I’d also be very surprised if it got similar prices, but if Avatar unlocks new collectors the same way Final Fantasy did, the sky is the limit here. 

It also needs to be said that about 85% of Collector Booster packs will have a rare in this slot, so the average CB box will only have about two mythics. That’s almost the same as Spider-Man’s rate in Collector Boosters, but Edge of Eternities was about 70% rare in this slot. We’ll have to see if this greatly impacts the prices as well.

I hope this information helps you make good decisions about cracking packs, and that you feel sufficiently lucky when you open something amazing! As always, if you’d like to discuss methods or numbers, please feel free to hit me up on social media, or come to the ProTrader Discord!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.