Category Archives: Casual Fridays

Casual Fridays

Early Commander 2016 Results!

I have been really hoping for awesome things from Commander 2016, and frankly, it’s not disappointing. I love how Wizards has identified this niche and gives us all sorts of fun toys to play with.

What I’m really looking for is how much I’m willing to spend on singles. Until I have a decklist, I don’t know what I’m buying and I’m not willing to spend $30 on a deck and send out $35 worth of PucaPoints. Postage will eat up my margins.

I’m also nervous about knowing how many of each card is going to be printed. The markings of Mythic, Rare, Uncommon and Common don’t mean much when they are printed in equal numbers. I need to know if some of these are in multiple decks! I doubt it, but I’m not assuming anything.

To be clear, I doubt that much from this set is going to have a high price anytime soon. Commander 2015’s big winner is Mystic Confluence at $9. The 2014 version has multiple cards over $10, but the biggest is a reprint: Wurmcoil Engine. Even True-Name Nemesis, the headliner of Commander 2013, is only $14.

There are two things I want to be aware of: The prices that will fall, and the prices that will eventually rise.

Most of the cards in this set are going to fall in price, and fall hard. Others are going to trail off, after an initial burst. So what’s going to be the Blade of Selves?

blade freyalise

I liked picking up the Blade when it was a little over $10, but we have gotten to a point that after a year, people who wanted them immediately got them, and then those who sort of wanted it got theirs, and now we are at the lowest demand.

So the most expensive cards in this set are going to drop in price unless something gooses the price, which is usually Legacy demand. Containment Priest hit $50 for one weekend. True-Name Nemesis caused Wizards to adjust how many of which deck they printed.

Patience can pay off, though, if you’re willing to think in longer terms. Here’s Freyalise, Llanowar’s Fury.

freyalise

She hasn’t gone up enormously yet, but she’s crept upward, a trend that I want to be aware of.

The individual legends are going to be pretty solidly average in price. You’re going to see a lot of them that are between $3 and $7, and I don’t think that any of the ones spoiled are going to light up the Commander world. Perhaps I just can’t pick out the Meren of Clan Nel Toth, or the Nekusar, the Mindrazer out of this batch?

With this in mind, let’s look at some spoilers!

Deepglow Skate – So far, this is the card that I think is going to gain the most value right away, partially because it’s a single color (and not green for this effect!) and partially because it’s downright amazing. I am in love with this card and it’s going to go into a range of decks. If this is only in the non-red deck, then it’s going to immediately jump and decline over time. This will definitely be a long-term pickup for me.

Prismatic Geoscope – Look, we know Gilded Lotus is a good card. It’s worth considering as a first pick in a Cube, and this card is potentially better. It’s a big drawback that it enters tapped, but the potential to tap for four or five mana for only costing five, that’s a big, big jump for the mana-hungry five color decks. There’s a good chance that this is in more than one of the 2016 decks, and if it is, it’ll have a hard time keeping its price.

Vial Smasher the Fierce – While I don’t know how good this is going to be in Commander four-player games, I’m awfully intrigued by how good it might be in Legacy decks. Adding damage to the first spell a turn is tempting indeed, though I might be dreaming. Likely stays under $3.

Conqueror’s Flail – I love what this offers me, a way for a creature-heavy deck to resist really annoying cards like Cyclonic Rift or Batwing Brume. I suspect this will be a popular card but not world-shattering, and have a relatively low price. It’s solid, being +2/+2 or more for a mere two to play and two to equip, but the way it prevents interaction is the real selling point. Solid in the long-term.

Faerie Artisans – Oh this card. I want to be all over this card and sing its praises to the heavens, but the truth of the matter is that when it’s in play, your opponents will almost never play their awesome creatures with amazing enters-the-battlefield effects. It’s a rattlesnake of a card, warning them off and probably not doing much. If you are into slowing the game down this might be more your style, but this will never be expensive.

Ludevic, Necro-Alchemist – I like this as a sort of fixed Sygg, River Cutthroat, but this is another one that is really intriguing when there’s less players. It can’t draw you cards at the same rate Sygg can, but the way it pays people off for attacking each other is like a lightweight Edric, Spymaster of Trest. Still, he will probably stay super cheap.

Casual Fridays, Uncategorized

What does it mean?

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So in case you missed it, we are back to one rotation a year, and that rotation will be in the fall, just as it used to be. But what does it mean? What cards and strategies are impacted? Should I buy now? Should I hold?

Well, it’s actually not that earth-shattering an announcement, considering that the old model didn’t have very long to take root. I freely admit that I don’t play a lot of Standard, so this decision was likely a reflection of conversations with R&D, vendors, distributors, local stores, and of course players. I don’t feel the need to parse the words of the announcement, but I do respect that they are listening to concerns and acting when they can.

A longer rotation means, for us, a return to what many of us consider ‘normal’ cycles with regard to the prices of cards. I have been watching Gideon, Ally of Zendikar for some time, and considering that a bellwether for what good cards should be expected to do financially. In this case, and in a lot of cases, cards aren’t spiking due to Standard demand. Cards were setting a price early and trickling downward, at different rates depending on how much it’s played.

Before the change, there was a point about one year after release when some middling to great cards would spike nicely. My favorite example from recent times was Hero’s Downfall.

downfall

Mmmm. Pure, undiluted value. That spike at the rise of Mono-Black Devotion. One of the things I love doing is hunting for the value that will be, and lots of us write about it.

With the 18-month schedule, it’s very difficult for that spike to happen. Cards are going to rotate out so soon, there wasn’t much time to enjoy your deck, especially for cards released in the second set.

Let’s look at Kozilek’s Return.

return

The power of the card, the need for a four-of, and that it was a mythic in a small set, all contributed to the gain in value, but I don’t think it went as high as it could have, because people knew they were getting a card just for the next few months.

Now, if you pick up some Gideons or Returns, you’re going to be able to play them until next October, making it a lot more palatable to drop the money on a playset.

Gideon is one example, and Return seems likely to pick up a couple bucks, but those aren’t going to grow a lot. I also think that while Liliana, the Last Hope is really well positioned against the swarm of aggressive and tiny creatures in Standard, being at $45 doesn’t leave much area for growth.

Ob Nixilis, Reignited – $4.90 – I know he’s an easily available foil in the Duel Deck that dropped in September, but this is a very cheap price for a strong mythic planeswalker. He does everything a control deck wants, and at worst, he’ll replace himself immediately before getting answered. Being in the Duel Deck is going to seriously cap his value, but cheap planeswalkers are always a solid investment.

Quarantine Field – $1.13 – It’s a bad deal at four mana, but good at six and game-breaking at eight. A dollar mythic is always going to get my attention, though I think Fragmentize puts a top on how high this can go.

Goblin Dark-Dwellers – $1.17 – This was the buy-a-box promotional card so there’s more of them, but this is a card good enough to show up in Modern. I’m a big fan of cards with nowhere to go but up, and we just got a good lesson in how good replaying spells can be, thanks to Torrential Gearhulk. Having flash makes the Gearhulk better, but I like this at a buck.

Oath of Nissa – $2.50 – It’s a rare from a small set that gets played as a four-of. I like getting these and waiting for them to go up to the $4-$5 range.

Cryptolith Rite – $1.37 – Have we forgotten how good these swarm decks can be? This is a real enabler of a card that has good potential to spike.

Declaration in Stone – $5.39 – An excellent candidate to go up now that it’s legal for six more months. If Prized Amalgam decks go up as well, then this or Descend upon the Sinful will really spike.

Ishkanah, Grafwidow – $8.41 – This is a very powerful card, and mythics from this set stand to do very well with the extra time in Standard. I’d look for this to spike by $5 or more when it hits big.

Tamiyo, Field Researcher – $11.41 – There’s two other mythics from this set that are $20+ and all it’s going to take is one good set of results at an SCG open or a GP for this to spike. The supply is rather low (remember, this lost time being drafted due to Conspiracy: Take the Crown) and this could easily be the third card to hit that price.

Casual Fridays

Don’t Chase Trends This Weekend!

So I’m going to be the contarian voice with the Pro Tour in Hawaii: I don’t think there is a lot of money to be made by trying to stay ahead of the spikes and chasing the new hot tech.

Actually, let me rephrase that: I don’t think there’s a lot of extra money to be made this weekend.

The Pro Tour this weekend is going to showcase the best of the best playing for a lot of money. Teams of professional players have been huddling and practicing for some time, getting ready, debating pick orders, choosing sideboards, etc.

We will get to watch them, and we will see immediate effects on prices. The important thing to note, though, is that value is only to be gained in one of two ways:

  1. Selling at a price before the price drops lower.
  2. Buying at a price before the price increases.

So if you’ve got TCG loaded and you’re ready to buy at a moment’s notice, I want you to stop for a second. How many are you going to buy? And how many are you going to sell?

Chances are, unless you manage a storefront, you’re not going to buy too much. The question also begs, why are you buying? If you’re trying to acquire a supply of a card (let’s use Fumigate as an example) in order to sell it at a higher price, are you ready for the associated fees and shipping and the time problems?

At this point I want to refer you to Travis’s awesome piece from more than two years ago, and it still holds very true: “My Spec Quadrupled But I Only Made 75 Cents Each” because he does an excellent job detailing the problems of cashing in when you hit it big.

Travis doesn’t bring up PucaTrade, which gives you an approximation of retail value, but in real terms, you’re going to have a very hard time making big money on stuff you buy, especially if you’re buying a lot of something. PucaTrade allows you to send out things before they crash, but it’s not an exchange built for speed.

Now, I’m not all doom and gloom. Being quick to act means you can get things cheap that you’re going to play with, and that is something I’m all for. It is a really terrible feeling, being keenly aware that this $10 card was just $5 a couple of days ago. That’s real money because it’s saved. We also have the officially-named ‘fear of missing out’ which means that we are anxious about not being aware of an opportunity, of not getting in quick enough.

So for example, if a White-Blue control deck goes on camera and wipes the floor with a Smuggler’s Copter deck, and the WU player has 4x Fumigate, then lots of people are going to play follow the leader and pick up a set of Fumigate, which will climb the price. Let’s say it doubles and hits $5.

Being early to act can be worth the $10 you just saved on a playset of Fumigate. Good job!

What I do not want you to do is be the person who is buying Fumigate during the spike at $4 or so. It’s not topped out, but it’s slowing and you want to get your set before it hits a higher price. In this case, I’m going to tell you to calm down. Almost all of the cards that spike during the Pro Tour will travel back down. Cards have to see a lot of play, too.

Think Kozilek’s Return. That’s kept a price. But so many other cards don’t keep the heights they hit, and go right back to a good level, especially the brand-new cards from the set that’s still being opened. For instance, the darling of PT Eldritch Moon was Emrakul, the Promised End.
emrakul

See that graph? It sure did spike in price for a couple of days…and then went back as more were opened. This is not a trend you want to be chasing.

It’s not impossible for you to make money this weekend. You will most likely gain value this weekend if you move fast on the cards that see a lot of play, but gaining value is not the hard part. The hard part is trying to make money off the continued climb. As Travis pointed out, you’re buying at a low retail price, but you’re probably not going to sell at a retail price.

So my advice to you this weekend is to sit back and watch. Don’t feel like you’re going to miss out. You can list those few cards on eBay. Avoid the fees, trade it away. Try to relax and enjoy the top 8 in Hawaii!

I don’t think you can gain enough value from high-speed trades and resales to make it worth your time. This puts me at odds with a lot of others, but it’s how I feel and I want you to take a deep breath and just enjoy the best in the world play this awesome game.

Casual Fridays

Go! Get (out of) The Copter!

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I don’t care if you’re tired of Smuggler’s Copter jokes. It needs to be done and I have to give a terrible apology if you hear the title in an Ahnuld accent.

So we missed the boat on the Copter. It’s $18 for an in-print Standard rare at week one, and while I know that the price is going to go down, how far can it go?

The answer is, pretty far. I want to examine some rares, not mythics, to see how far we can expect the Copter to fall.

Let’s start with Shadows over Innistrad, and look for commonly played rares. We aren’t going to look at Eldritch Moon, since that’s a small set and I want to compare apples to apples.

titi

One of the first rares to burst onto the scene, and one whose preorder price kept climbing upward, was Thing in the Ice. Since this has come out, it’s seen some play but not a lot, rarely being the centerpiece of a deck.

Yes, it was above $15 at one point at the beginning! The lack of play lowered the price, and then there was a time not too long ago where Blue-Red Thermo-Thing was popular, and that is why the buylist price bumped up a little.

But yikes. Fifteen bucks down to five, that’s a big loss…though the card isn’t terribly popular.

Let’s look at something that often got played alongside Copter: Declaration in Stone.

declaration

Two mana, exile a creature, and there are drawbacks in the form of Clues. Cheap, efficient, and powerful, and played a lot, though not as much as the Copter.

Even so, it’s gone from a high of $17 down to its current plateau of $4. It’s got Kaladesh and three more sets before it’s out of Standard, so there’s room for it to fall more or perhaps to creep upward. As a rare, there are a whole ton of these out there and that’s why the price has fallen has far as this. Removal this good should hold a price, and it’s actually not the usual thing for a rare to hold a price above that of a booster pack.

Shadows over Innistrad has three: Thing in the Ice, Declaration in Stone, and Tireless Tracker.

Maybe what we should also do is look at Battle for Zendikar, because that has Expeditions to goose people to buy more packs. The data doesn’t lie, either: it’s very difficult for rares to keep value. From Battle for Zendikar, the only rares over $3 are lands: Cinder Glade, Prairie Stream, and Shambling Vent.

My point is that the price on the Copter, and a lot of other rares, are about to start dropping as Kaladesh gets opened in earnest. There’s a big Limited Grand Prix this weekend, and that’s going to be a huge injection of supply into the market.

If you’re hellbent on playing Standard this weekend or next, you can go ahead and buy your playset for $70 or so, and play it for quite a while. It’s possible–possible!–that the Pro Tour next weekend spikes it even farther, but I can’t even remember the last $20 rare we had in Standard.

It’s going to be fascinating to watch.

Think of it like Aether Hub. Sure, it’s a four-of all over the place, and it’s a good card, but people, it is an uncommon. An in-print uncommon has an eBay price of $9-$10 a playset!

This first weekend of prices is crazy. The play is heavily to sell. SELL. You can buylist the Copter, a rare, for $9. You can get $10 for Gideon, Ally of Zendikar, and that’s a four-of mythic.

I’m trying very hard to bring up all the evidence that I can to convince you that if you’re buying a Copter right now, it’s to play it for the next 18 months. Please don’t buy it now, hoping it goes up more. Don’t chase the tail end of this. Wait. Be patient. The prices will drop, and you’ll lose money if you buy now and hope to sell the Saturday of the PT.