By: Cliff Daigle

Oath of the Gatewatch has been out for a while now and the prices have started to stabilize.

Well, mostly, anyway. Right now, Oath has a surprising amount of value, both because it’s a new set and because the Modern Pro Tour just spiked a bunch of the rares from this set.

With 42 rares and 12 mythics, I want to look at where I think prices will settle out. Already, only a dozen cards have a Fair Trade Price at above a booster pack’s MSRP of $4, and there’s a lot of room for them to fall.

As ever, my goal is to pick out the cards that will bottom out when the season of drafting Oath–Oath–Battle for Zendikar ends, and that will have about 15 months of being Standard legal still in front of it, excellent time for it to go back up in price.

Nissa, Voice of Zendikar ($13): Nissa hasn’t made any waves yet and that’s what we want right now. Commander players have mostly picked up their copies at this point and now we are going to let the market drive her price down gradually. I’m hoping she gets to about $7 before Shadows of Innistrad comes out, as that represents a very safe price for a three-mana, steady-advantage planeswalker who still has more than a year of being Standard legal.

For Nissa, everything is going to depend on the current meta. Right now, she’s not very good, and that should hold through April, pushing her price down as Oath packs get cracked in search of more Eldrazi.

Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet ($20): Maybe, just maybe, his price drops to $15 as more and more packs get opened. Aside from being just a strong, good, powerful card, he’s got very relevant text against decks like Rally, who want to use the graveyard as a resource. This ability seems like it will be even more relevant when Shadows Over Innistrad arrives, and I had been hoping to pick him up about $10. As it is, though, I don’t think he will fall much farther before Oath season ends.

Kozilek, the Great Distortion ($14): The headliner of the set, this Kozilek is actually better than the original, but is definitely harder to cast. The double-colorless restriction is not as bad in Commander, where Sol Ring continues to reign supreme, but it’s got the potential to draw you more than four cards and offers some ability to protect himself with the counterspell ability. I will be surprised if he goes much further down, unlikely to even make it to $10. I do not think he’s going to see Tron play, as those decks had a chance at a guaranteed four cards and passed it up. So only casual demand, or unforeseen Standard play, is going to raise this price.

Chandra, Flamecaller ($11): I think this is about the perfect price for her, considering she’s already seeing a small amount of play. She will never be a four-of, and getting in at this price will at least be stable. I won’t be shocked if she creeps up to $15 in nine months or so.

World Breaker ($10): I didn’t think this would be this high at all! It’s seven mana, for a big reachy body, that exiles instead of destroys. It’s being played as a four-of in some of the new Ramp decks, and that’s fun, but I don’t think the long-term potential is there. This is destined to be $5, at which point I’m still leery of the growth potential. Yes, it’s better than Acidic Slime in Cube, but it’s so expensive!

Mirrorpool ($6): This is better than you think it is. It is tricky to use but carries a relatively low cost, since it’s a land and not a spell. This is a card that most Commander decks would enjoy having, as long as there’s enough other sources of colorless mana. I expect this to get to $3 over time, and that’s when I’d like to have a few for the “Wait a couple of years” box.

Goblin Dark-Dwellers ($4): This is an intriguing card, even for being the buy-a-box promo. With every three-cost spell printed, this gets better and better. The easy uses involve removal spells (it’s already responsible for recasting many a Crackling Doom, for instance) but there’s more and more utility available as time goes on. I think that this has versatile potential, and I’m hoping this drops to $2. At that point, I’d want to pick up a dozen or so to set aside.

Stormchaser Mage ($2/$17 foil!): This card is getting a lot of buzz as a Monastery Swiftspear with evasion. It’s an uncommon from a small set and it’s quite possible that the price never goes lower. I’m not sold that it’s better than Young Pyromancer, but it’s going to get a crack at Modern or even Legacy play eventually. I’m not going to be aggressive about it right now, but it’s on my radar. Foils being at an 8x multiplier really sets off alarms to me, but without any results yet, it’s hard to say for sure that you should move in. I prefer to wait and get a little more data before buying the foils.

Sea Gate Wreckage ($2): I think this has further to fall, though it’ll never be bulk. It’s an amazing casual card, and while control decks never want to be empty-handed, there are plenty of other decks that will happily dump their hand in order to enable extra cards. When it gets to $1, I’m going to move in on more than a few copies. The foil is currently at $9, indicating the casual appeal is quite strong.

Ruins of Oran-Rief ($.50): If this didn’t enter tapped, It would likely be in Affinity decks. As it is, I love this as a bulk card going forward for the casual player. It’s not going to light the world on fire, but it’s steady advantage and upgrades everything in an artifact deck or a Devoid deck. It might end up in the quarter bin or even the bulk box, but even at fifty cents I like having a few.

By: Cliff Daigle
@wordofcommander

Last week I went over some Standard picks. This week I want to shift back to my first love, Commander, and highlight some foils that aren’t as expensive as they are about to be.

Basically, these are cards that are underpriced for their utility and especially as compared to their nonfoil price. For most cards, the foil price is about two to three times more, and in a lot of cases, the foil is much more than that. An example of the enormous multiplier would be Swiftfoot Boots from Magic 2012. There’s four versions at fifty cents each, and then the foil at $10.

Chromantic Lantern ($9.50 nonfoil/$15 foil): So this is the dream card for a five-color deck. It’s a little acceleration and it’s a lot of fixing. It sees zero play outside of casual formats, and the foil is only 50% more than the nonfoil. Expect this to correct itself to at least $30.

Doubling Season ($40/$50): Even the pack foil from Ravnica is only $55, and that’s just criminally underpriced for how popular this card is. There are three different foil printings, and that’s helped keep the price low, but the recent spike for the nonfoil hasn’t been accompanied by a rise in the price of the foil. Get some shiny versions now, and just be patient as they go up to $75 if not $100.

Chaos Warp ($4/$12): A lot of Commander’s Arsenal is underpriced. This is one of the cheaper cards, and it’s just so awesome in a color that really lacks for universal removal. It’s true that the Warp can actually change a problem into a worse problem, but that’s part of the fun. Interestingly, if this gets printed in another nonfoil set, the foil might really take off.

Hall of the Bandit Lord ($8/$18): I’m highlighting this card because the supply is already low (this was only in Champions of Kamigawa) and it’s not going to take much for it to spike. It’s an excellent candidate to show up in some Modern list as a fun-of and the price will just go bananas.

Deathrite Shaman ($7/$63): This sees far too much Legacy play to have this low a price on the foil. It’s simply one of the best one-drops ever, and it’s awesome in any casual format you care to name. I won’t be shocked to see this as a $100 foil within a year.

Soul of the Harvest ($0.50/$3): This is as staple as staples get. It’s a big green creature that rewards you for playing more creatures. There are multiple versions of this effect, but Glimpse of Nature or Beck//Call aren’t the easy-to-reanimate size of this creature. Garruk’s Packleader is a related card, but it’s had three foil printings. Token decks might prefer the Packleader.

Zealous Conscripts ($.75/$2): It’s a Kiki-Jiki combo piece. It’s a surprise way to steal and use a planeswalker’s ultimate. It frees you from Propaganda effects for a turn. It’s all this and more, for a very cheap foil price.

Ruric Thar, the Unbowed ($.50/$1.50): I’ll give you that this is an intro pack foil, and therefore there are more of them out there. The effect is undeniable, though, and something that you need to add to every one of your red/green decks. Plus, it’s a cheap price to buy in at and that’s always a feature I look for.

Managorger Hydra ($3/$6): I love foils going forward. This card is better than Taurean Mauler and works with all the green cards that enable shenanigans: Doubling Season, Hardened Scales, etc. There’s also Hydra decks to consider, as those are surprisingly expensive.

Phyrexian Ingester ($.35/$.70): This costs one more mana and one more color than Duplicant, which does make it worse, but it’s a better card once it’s in play. Duplicant can actually shrink, while this cannot be anything worse than its original 3/3. (Unless you’re exiling Char Rumbler. In that case, good job on the corner case!)

Sol Ring (lots/$30/$160): This is a tricky card. It’s been printed to hell and back but it’s just the best to have, better than a Mox and nearly as good as a Lotus. There’s only two foils, though, and there’s a huge gap between them. The early judge foil, with the original art, is $160 or so and worth every penny. The From the Vault version uses the more recent art but it’s the version that will be settled upon by those who want a foil but don’t want to spend the premium. This has a lot of version competing but picking up a few FTV at $30 is pretty reasonable.

Magister Sphinx ($1/$2): This should be a higher foil multiplier. The ability is busted badly in EDH, taking someone from 30-40 life (or even infinite life!) to ten. It’s from a small set several years ago and it’s a staple in any artifact deck. The color restriction is a problem but not that bad a problem.

Command Tower ($3/$30): Two foil versions to choose from, neither of which are easy to find. Which one you want comes down to preference, either for the art or for the foiling process, since Commander’s Arsenal looks a lot like the hated FTV versions of things. I know this is already a multiplier of ten but considering the number of people who want a foil version of the best land in your Commander deck, $30 is too low. I’d expect this to hit at least $50 within a year.

This is by no means an exhaustive list. If there’s other foils with a multiplier of less than two, or others you feel are undervalued, come on over to the forums! Share your knowledge with other ProTraders and let’s all benefit together.

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By: Cliff Daigle
@wordofcommander

So a new set is here, and while our eyes are immediately drawn to the new shiny things, this is the exact time that we want to be thinking ahead.

Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged are going to rotate in April, when Shadows over Innistrad arrives. This is the beginning of the new rotational schedule, 18 months in Standard instead of 24. What I want to look at today are the cards that are currently underpriced, since they are in Battle for Zendikar and the supply is just about at maximum.

My philosophy for years has been to trade for these types of cards now and then trade them away in six months or so, when demand is high and yet it’s no longer being opened. An example of this in action is Hero’s Downfall.

That low point, during Born of the Gods and Journey into Nyx? That’s where we are with Battle for Zendikar. See that spike during the beginning of Khans of Tarkir? That’s my exit point.

I’m not skilled enough at deckbuilding to say with certainty what decks will be good and what won’t after rotation. What I do know is this: losing the fetch lands is going to hurt these four-and-five-color monstrosities, running twelve fetches and six or seven battle lands. If Shadows over Innistrad contains the enemy fetches (Scalding Tarn and the like) then I’m probably going to be super wrong and that’s going to be a mea culpa moment.

But let’s get to my current wants:

The Battle Lands (all $3 – $4 each)

This is the easiest call of all. Supply is at maximum, and everyone has all they need for their decks. The dirty little secret of the battle lands and the manabases right now is that you don’t need the full playset of each land. You need one or two, since fetches get you exactly what you need.

When there is no Windswept Heath, decks are going to need to draw their lands. Even if you want to run more pain lands (for the colorless) then you still have holes to fill and that means you’re going to increase the numbers of battle lands you’re playing.

Take a Jeskai Black deck or an Abzan Blue deck. Depending on the flavor, it’s running between five and eight battle lands of three or four types. No four-of on these duals, because fetches obviate that need. Take away the fetches and I think deckbuilders go back to three-of and four-of, which means the prices on these will conservatively double.

That’s right — I think even Cinder Glade will be in the $6-$8 range before we get the second set of Shadows Over Innistrad block.

 

Radiant Flames ($1)

It’s true that this is being overshadowed by Kozilek’s Return, and for the most part that’s merited. This is a sorcery, and colorless mana doesn’t help with converge at all. I think that Radiant Flames is super cheap for what it does, though, and it doesn’t seem unlikely for there to be a rise in decks that want to wipe the board of small things for three mana. Plus, the price to get in is so low that your risk is super low as well.

Stay away from the promo, though. Pick up one if you have to have the full collection of promo foils but this one doesn’t have much appeal to Cube or Commander. I can’t wait to trade these away at $3.

 

Planar Outburst ($0.75)

Speaking of cheap sweepers! This is a total flier. It’s almost bulk in price and while it’s five mana, there aren’t many cards ever that offer the same level of “kill everything but the one thing I want to live” around. Martial Coup did it, Phyrexian Rebirth did it. I’m picking up about ten of these and crossing my fingers.

 

Painful Truths ($2.80)

There’s a little more risk on the buy-in here but the card already has pedigree. It’s too much life to be played as a four-of, and that is going to count against it.

However, this card is starting to pop up in Modern lists and that makes it an appealing target indeed. I really like trading for cards that have a wide appeal, even they aren’t used in full playsets. I think that this will climb to about $5, if not higher.

 

Ruinous Path ($1.31)

Holy Hero’s Downfall! It’s the same spell! A little worse, but a little better. What sent Downfall high was the rise of Mono-Black Devotion, but there’s a lot of reasons to go heavy black at rotation. The mana will be easier, and you’ll get this plus Grasp of Darkness. If you’re looking to kill creatures early and late, that seems like an awesome starting point. Path, Grasp, a couple of Flaying Tendrils…yeah, I like that plan.

This is another card that won’t have to try very hard to get up to $5, or even more, depending on the decks being built.

 

Ob Nixilis Reignited ($6.50)

So if killing things is good, let’s stay on that path. This is a very powerful planeswalker who is seeing very little play. He’s amazing when ahead and great when behind, and I’m in for this climbing to at least $10.

 

 

Shrine of the Forsaken Gods ($1.25)

In the decks that want colorless, this is phenomenal. In the decks that want to get a lot of lands and land successive haymakers, it’s really good.

In other decks, it’s pretty lame. But most importantly, it’s cheap and it won’t take much for this to be $3 in trade. This is one of my PucaTrade positions, getting them at 100 points and hoping to send them back out for 250-300 points in a few months.

 

Sanctum of Ugin ($1.50)

If Shrine gets good, so does this. Shrine is actually best friends here, as the loss of a land needs to be made up. The same principles apply.

 

From Beyond ($1)

This isn’t a flier for three months from now. This is pure, unfettered, delicious speculation. Awakening Zone is up to $6 or so, though its last printing was five years ago. This is a better card, even for costing a mana more. I love picking these up and just putting them away, and the foils are sweet at $3-$4 too. Free tokens every turn are great, and using them to cast big things is amazing.

I don’t intend this to be a comprehensive list, just the things that have caught my eye. Are there others I’ve missed out on? Comment away!

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By: Cliff Daigle

With everyone looking their eyes full of the new set (with glee, I’m doing the same) I want to think about the things that are about to rotate when Shadows over Innistrad arrives in April.

Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged are going to be gone in three months, so it’s time to get out of some things and prepare to get into others.

Khans of Tarkir

Fetchlands ($14-$22): These have already seen a spike thanks to the battle lands and it’s possible that they won’t go down at all. Modern has already soaked up a lot of the supply, and casual players got great lands at a good price.

I’m getting rid of mine now, and after rotation, I do not expect them to go up or down significantly. I am going to pursue a strategy of seeking them out in trade, though, because turning several smaller cards into a fetch land will give me good trade fodder.

Sorin, Solemn Visitor (currently $8): I would expect him to take a minor dip in price but not very far. Get rid of extras now, but keep the ones you’ve already put into Cubes and EDH decks.

Everything else in Khans is quite low in price, as befits a set that is about to rotate. So let’s see where the deals are:

See the Unwritten ($1): Guo wrote an article a while back that detailed a philosophy about cards that can only get better. With every big creature printed in the future, See the Unwritten gets better. It’s not going to be huge, but the foil multiplier indicates that this has had big casual demand. I love picking this up at $1 and just being patient. It’s certainly not going to go lower.

Clever Impersonator ($2.25): Another card that has a 4x foil multiplier, instead of 2-3x, I like having a few of these to spare. It’s just amazing in any casual format, copying anything at all. The better your opponents are, the better this will be. I would expect slow but steady growth from this card.

Foil Feed the Clan ($5): I mentioned this card as a sideboard option, and the 10x multiplier on the foil says that this is worth having. Ten life is worth three to four cards against a Burn deck and while it’s almost exclusively a Modern sideboard option right now, It might get a huge bump in price if it shows up in a Legacy event.

Empty the Pits ($0.75): There is such low risk in picking this card up. Yes, it’s more expensive than Secure the Wastes, and they are tapped, but the tribal appeal cannot be overstated. Get a few, sock them away, and move on. It’s also worth noting that there are only two Delve spells with X in the cost, though this one cannot be used in a combo turn. The other is a counterspell, so not really relevant.

Foil Become Immense ($6.50): It’s a mainstay now in Infect decks, though not quite good enough for Legacy builds that get to abuse Invigorate. Nowhere to go but up, and the Temur Battle Rage combo might get popular again.

Foil Stubborn Denial ($4): I’m very surprised that this hasn’t seen more play in Modern and Legacy yet. When I can Tasigur on turn two and have this up (off fetches and Thought Scours) the world would seem to be my oyster.

Fate Reforged

Ugin, the Spirit Dragon ($48): This is a very high price, but he’s the chase mythic of a small set. Thankfully, there’s a promo version out there taking some of the pressure off the high end, giving Commander and Cube players a special card to go after. I think that his price goes down some but not a lot, and certainly not enough to make it worth the play of ‘sell now, buy again in three months’. Ugin sees a fair amount of Modern play, so I won’t be surprised when he dips down to $35-$40 and then climbs back upwards.

Tasigur, The Golden Fang ($4/$37): One mana for a 4/5 on turn two after a Delver turn one (presuming fetches and Thought Scour) is really good, even before the ability puts your worst spell back in hand. I know several of my cohorts here have trumpeted the foil as well, and the multiplier of nearly 10x is a very strong indicator of demand post-Standard.

Monastery Mentor ($16): A first-class finisher, one that demands a sweeper or an immediate answer. Given the relatively small number in circulation, I would imagine this goes down to maybe $12 at rotation before starting to creep upwards.

Temporal Trespass ($1.75): Extra-turns cards are always going to have a certain group that they appeal to. The foil has a normal ultiplier up to $5.50, so this is a stable price to get in at. The $1.75 price is despite seeing no play anywhere, so it’s unlikely to go down.

Whisperwood Elemental ($1.25/$7): Foil alert! I can tell you that this card is a house in Commander games, where you can flip up whatever you manifested each turn and just stockpile cards in hand, all while having a free insurance policy against having your board wiped. Six times the regular price means that it is being picked up by those who like shiny things, and I think the foil could be $15 in a year.

Foil Gurmag Angler ($10!!): Yup, the Delve decks love this guy and some of them play this and Tasigur. I’ll leave it to the brewers to decide who is right, because the price of self-mill to make this good is a price that was already being paid. I’d also like to point out its cousin Hooting Mandrills at $3.50 for a foil, though being a 4/4 is not quite big enough.