By: Cliff Daigle

The spoiler has landed, and before I dive into what I want to buy (lots of foils, I suspect) I want to look at the other pretty toys Oath of the Gatewatch is giving us: twenty more Expeditions.

I’m going to rank them based on casual appeal, as the financial value has a lot of variation. Trade appeal is also a consideration.

Ancient tomb: For people who build cubes, there’s already a special foil version out there. It’s not hard to find, but putting one of these in your commander deck is a powerful thing to do.

It’s also going to sting, so be aware.

Desirability: six out of 10.

 

Mana Confluence: There is no shortage of lands that will enable you to be five colors. City of Brass, Rupture Spire, Unknown Shores, Shimmering Grotto, and lots lots more. This is from a very recent sent, before oil is not hard to find, but the art is more appealing as these things go.

Desirability: five out of 10.

 

Wasteland: Financially, this is likely to be among the pricier Expeditions. Even the Tempest uncommon is up to $70 and there’s a couple of special foils. This will be a card lots of people want to have, and you should treat it as such.

I think every Commander deck should have a plan to deal with problem nonbasics (Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale, Diamond Valley, Maze of Ith) and Wasteland is a great answer.

Desirability: 9 out of 10

 

Dust Bowl: Speaking of great answers in Commander! I confess I didn’t know this had gotten up to almost $10, and its only foiling was the set, so that means it’s pretty hard to find.

I’m not sure the demand is there, though. The Bowl is a nice trick to have in EDH games but it’s hard to abuse like Strip Mine or Wasteland is. Fair cards tend to have fair prices, and I’d expect this to keep a fair price.

Desirability: 4 out of 10

 

Forbidden Orchard: Another five-color land, and one that gets used in tricky scenarios where you want to give your opponent creatures. Something like Defense of the Heart, perhaps?

It sees a marginal amount of Legacy play, and a small amount of Commander use. Yawn.

Desirability: 3 out of 10

 

Tectonic Edge: The existence of this as a promo makes me want to play a variation of “Flip it or Rip it” called “Rip it to pieces and set them aflame.”

Desirability: negative a billion out of ten

 

Strip Mine: I was surprised to learn that there is only one foil version of this card, and that’s the From The Vault printing of 2009.

It is notable that Wasteland is legal for Legacy but this isn’t. Would making it legal in that format to degenerate decks? Aren’t the decks already degenerate? Looking at deck lists, the case could be made that this is much worse than wasteland. Most Legacy decks are only playing one or two basics, unless the deck plays almost all basics.

Does this mean we are about to see an unbanning? Logically, maybe, but as I’ve noted, I’m done trying to figure out what Wizards has decided to do.

Desirability: 6 out of 10

 

Horizon Canopy: A third-set rate from forever ago, two colors of mana immediately and can be cashed in for a card. Value all over the place!

Canopy sees play in a lot of decks in a range of formats. As such, this will be fighting for the title of “most valuable” among the Expeditions and one of the main ones you want to open.

Desirability: 9.5 out of 10

 

Kor Haven: People assume this is Maze of Ith all the time. It’s not. It’s more expensive and more one-sided, and produces mana! The effect it generates prevents only the damage that would be dealt BY the creature, not to the creature. So you can block with lots of creatures and lose none.

Don’t overlook how good tapping for a colorless is about to become, either.

Desirability: 7 out of 10

 

Eye of Ugin: This just went through a spike and it’s going to make a big splash in Modern. This one is perfectly timed and might be something people chase really hard, in addition to the Tron players already making it popular.

Desirability: 7 out of 10

 

Ten Filter Lands: I’m lumping these together even though there’s going to be a very wide spread on them.

These are due to bump a little because the use of colorless activation and spells is going to go up in all the formats. Other writers have said this but I’ll repeat it: your best choices are now filter lands and pain lands, because shocks, duals, fetches, etc., can’t make colorless mana. Filter lands have been due for a reprint, and this is perfect.

If you open one and you don’t want to put it in a Commander deck, just tuck it in your binder. It won’t take long for you to find a trade partner.

Desirability: between 5 and 10 out of ten, depending on what colors you play in Commander.

By: Cliff Daigle

Almost a year ago, I made a set of resolutions, which can be found here.

Today, 51 weeks later, I want to go over how I’ve done and make some new ones. In case you haven’t noticed, I’m big on self-reflection.

2015

#1: Play More Magic

I have played more and I’m on track to do even better this year. My kids are a year older and a GP is coming to my area this month!

It’s also been a lot of fun to try out a lot of different card shops. Different events, different people, but the same great goal.

#2: Don’t Cash Out

I did not live up to this, as I sold off my Kaalia deck and a few other pieces to get a security deposit. It happens, but I’ll try not to have it happen again. Plus, it gave me an excuse to build Surrak Dragonclaw.

Some of the prices are just wow. As I’ve noted, Cavern of Souls is a ridiculous card and you should move your spare copies before the inevitable reprint.

#3: Reorg Binders

I failed at this too, and I have a fifth binder now: PucaTrade. Argh. I definitely need to stop carrying them all with me, too.

#4: Introduce a New Player to Magic

I’ve gotten several of my students interested. Big hit this year. Maybe a Magic club next year.

It’s easiest when they already play Hearthstone or other CCGs but Magic is the best of them all.

#5: Watch More Magic!

I would say I have been successful at this, especially if you ask my wife. The replays and archives on YouTube are easy and accessible and my only beef is that it’s hard to see all the cards in a MTGO pack.

Perhaps that’s why I find I enjoy watching the real life drafts more than I do the online ones, but there’s just not as many.

And like many others, I’m going to miss Patrick Sullivan on coverage.

#6: Continue not Playing Online

I have to admit, the various incarnations of Cube have been tempting. The legendary cube especially, that is something designed to get me out of my usual space. Powered cubes aren’t as interesting to me, especially when I’m paying for the privilege of losing on turn three.

It has not yet been worth the actual money and the investment of time.

#7: Get That Foil Foreign Akroma, and Foreign White Border Scrublands & Badlands

I ended up selling this deck not long after the year started so this became moot. Alas.

#8: Use eBay More

I have done this more but not as much as I likely should. I did more selling on eBay than buying, that always feels nice.

The simple truth remains that I don’t have the high levels of disposable income to be an eBay wizard, and I’m okay with that.

With that review in mind, let me make a few new ones for this year:

2016

#1: Use PucaTrade to Acquire a Gaea’s Cradle.

I wrote about my misgivings for Puca a few weeks ago and I’ve had more than a few good conversations about it. I’m still wary of the purchasing power but I’m going to give it a shot. Getting the points won’t be hard (Cavern of Souls is 4000!) and Cradle is a card that I desperately want.

I haven’t yet signed up for the paid tiers of Puca, but I want foils badly and so I just might start that soon.

#2: Have a Regular Magic scene

I’ve moved four times in the past five years. It’s been hard to have a regular thing but this is a goal, a very attainable one.

My goal this year is to be part of a regular Commander group. I’ve been sporadically attending and I want to build that community again. I don’t think I want to have to tune all my decks for a local meta, but I would love to have a regular group without a lot of infinite combos or resource denial decks.

#3: Trust my reads more

Sometimes when I write an article and highlight a card, I pick up a few copies. Kolaghan’s Command is the first time I had the impulse to go super deep and I ended up being shallow.

Granted, I have big stacks of other cards that haven’t panned out at all (Aurelia the Warleader, Thespian’s Stage, Prophet of Kruphix, etc.) but I KNEW it was underpriced and I didn’t move very much.

#4: Get and stay organized

I have multiple binders still. I have rows of I sorted cards. I have a paper box marked Puca. I have packed away my old decks filled with random treasure, like TurboThallid holding a set of Earthcraft.

I need to get everything sorted and accessible.

That’s my breakdown for this year. What are some of your goals?

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By: Cliff Daigle

This being the end of the year, I wanted to share with you all the pieces I am most pleased with, in chronological order.

Next week, it’s time to review how some New Year’s resolutions went!

2/6 – The Vendors’ Views

Normally at a GP between rounds, I’m searching for trades or looking for an EDH game. This time, I was chasing down vendors and trying to find out everything I could. What I found out was a lot more than what’s hot or not, and this was one of the first indicators of how 93/94 is really affecting the market for older cards. I’d hardly heard of the format at this point!

4/10 – We All Lose At Pack Wars

Every once in a while, I like to go back and review a basic concept of Magic finance. In this case, it’s the terrible value of a single pack. It is something I don’t always succeed at, especially when there’s foreign packs dripping with potential value.

For example, there was a card shop in New York I went to once, they had Japanese Shadowmoor packs. Only five of them left, and I bought them all to find the foil rare of…Stenchskipper. Yeah. Be envious.

5/15 – Watching the Sideboards

The philosophy here is valid, and comes with its own built-in proof: When I wrote this, the card Kolaghan’s Command was at $2/$6 for a foil, and if you’d bought in then (I picked up a few foils) then you’re up to $14/$30.

Not everything on that list has the same growth potential, but foil Rending Volley is still a great pickup right now, especially as anti-Twin tech in Modern. Kills Deceiver Exarch, Pestermite, even Restoration Angel if that variation is around. Can’t be countered and Spellskite is useless against it.

6/19 – Being an MTG Dad

By far, my favorite piece ever. I’m going to struggle with a lot of these questions over my daughters’ entire lives.

How much of my enjoyment of the game comes from being the accepted gender and race? Will I want to play less when I notice how many men spend less time casting spells and more time ogling them?

It is also the least financially relevant piece I’ve written for this site, as there’s no buy or sell advice within.

8/7 – Are you a Terrible Trader?

This piece spawned an interesting set of thoughts and comments on Reddit, and it has a lively set of examples in the comments.

One thing I want to make clear about my use of Hero’s Downfall as an example: if someone wants a card that will be rotating, trade it away at its current value. But when someone tries to push that card onto you, especially if it is not what you’re asking for, that’s when you should be leery.

10/2 – Awesome! Expedition! Now What?

The premise is simple: what to do if you open an Expeditions in Battle for Zendikar? How do you treat it? Keep it? Sell it? There’s a lot of potential options and all of them have advantages.

The new set of Expeditions, if the spoilers are to be believed, will have the most fascinating mix of very expensive and very cheap promo editions. It’ll be interesting to watch.

10/9 – The Lessons Origins Taught Us

Finally, this is a piece that I thought a lot about. How were so many of us so wrong? What lessons are here that we can learn from, in order to be ready for the next time a standard card approaches $80?

A lot of predictions were very right about the set. But the one we missed most on, Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy, offered the greatest financial windfall and that’s what I looked at.

I hope you enjoyed my year of writing, as well as this selection of highlights!

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By: Cliff Daigle

I’ve mentioned my all-foil deck before, but it only recently occurred to me that a decklist isn’t a bad idea, particularly in regard to the investment that this turned out to be.

Garza Zol, Plague Queen

Creatures:
Nirkana Revenant
Falkenrath Marauders
Soul Collector (Scourge Promo)
Blood Tyrant
Rakish Heir
Anowon, the Ruin Sage
Hero’s Downfall
Bloodlord of Vaasgoth (Promo)
Mirri the Cursed
Olivia Voldaren
Falkenrath Noble
Vampire Nocturnus (Promo)
Necropolis Regent
Kalastria Highborn (Full Art Promo)
Sangromancer
Butcher of Malakir
Unscythe, Killer of Kings
Szadek, Lord of Secrets
Dark Impostor
Ascendant Evincar
Kalitas, Bloodchief of Ghet
Falkenrath Aristocrat
Captivating Vampire
Kheru Bloodsucker
Sengir Vampire (foil Italian 9th)
Vampire Hexmage
Guul Draz Assassin (Buy-a-Box)
Stromkirk Captain
Vein Drinker
Sengir Nosferatu
Drana, Kalastria Bloodchief
Bloodline Keeper
Markov Blademaster
Moroii
Vampire Nighthawk (Promo)
Vampiric Dragon
Bloodghast
Malakir Bloodwitch
Duskmantle Seer

Planeswalkers
Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker

Enchantments
Oversold Cemetery
Rhystic Study (Commander’s Arsenal)
Phyrexian Arena (9th)
Bloodchief Ascension

Artifacts
Gilded Lotus (M13)
Urza’s Incubator
Mind’s Eye (CA)
Obelisk of Urd
Sol Ring (FTV)
Armillary Sphere
Gem of Becoming
Blade of the Bloodchief

Instants
Chaos Warp (Commander’s Arsenal)
Countersquall
Magmaquake (Game day)
Cryptic Command (MPR)

Sorceries
Increasing Ambition
Blood Tribute
Black Sun’s Zenith (Game Day)
In Garruk’s Wake (Promo)
Rise of the Dark Realms
Rite of Replication
Patriarch’s Bidding
Damnation (MPR)

Lands
Steam Vents (RTR)
Watery Grave (GTC)
Blood Crypt (RTR)
Drowned Catacomb (M12)
Dragonskull Summit (M12)
Graven Cairns (Shadowmoor)
Rakdos Carnarium (GPT)
Dimir Aqueduct (RAV)
Izzet Boilerworks (DIS)
Temple of Deceit
Temple of Epiphany
Temple of Malice
Bloodstained Mire (KTK)
Thespian’s Stage
Transguild Promenade
Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
Temple of the False God
Crumbling Necropolis
Reliquary Tower (FNM)
Cavern of Souls
Mana Confluence
Command Tower (judge promo)
Rupture Spire
Bojuka Bog
Urborg, Tomb of Yawgnoth
5 Swamp (all signed by the EDH Rules Committee)
3 Mountain
2 Island

I finished foiling this deck out in 2013, not long before I started writing for MTGPrice. The deck has changed slightly, and for today’s purposes, it’s worth mentioning that I had the other filter lands and Sulfur Falls, but the prices on those cards went so bananas that I felt I had to sell.

Today I want to make the case to you that foiling out a deck, a cube, or a collection is more than a way to satisfy the inner magpie, it’s an investment in a lot of ways.

Philosophy #1: Foil versions are printed less often, including reprints.

This is the basic tenet for picking up foil versions of cards. Foils are currently printed when the card is in Standard, when there’s a special set that has foil versions (such as Conspiracy or Modern Masters) and short-run special printings, like Judge promos, alternate-art versions in Clash Packs, and From the Vault sets.

That’s it. The card is in Standard or it’s a special reprint to get a foil version. This includes Magic Online redemptions, as that’s only an option for a limited time.

Because there are not only less foil versions as compared to the nonfoils, and the options for reprinting foils are significantly fewer, there just won’t be many foils. This leads to the foil multiplier, an unofficial metric that I use when figuring out how hard to chase a card.

Usually, a card in foil is about two to two and a half times as valuable. This general rule works for almost any card that isn’t subject to greater Legacy/Modern/casual demand, and variations in that rule indicate one of two things: The card is in great demand because it’s ubiquitous, especially in Standard; or the demand for a special version is much higher.

Let’s look at a few examples:

Anafenza, the Foremost is 5.99 regular and $13 in foil, including the Prerelease promos. She isn’t in heavy foil demand, keeping the multiplier at a little above two.

Rending Volley is 55 cents nonfoils, and as far as foils go there’s only Amazon at 4.49 and Card Kingdom at $6. Bouncing over to TCGPlayer, we see that the lowest is about $6 before shipping. That’s a multiplier of about 12, and a sign that the card is being picked up in older formats. Sure enough, it’s a popular sideboard option in Modern and occasionally Legacy.

The Chain Veil is $1.36 in normal and about $7 in foil, entirely due to casual demand. The only decklists I can find for it are Commander decks with lots of planeswalkers and that want to repeat using their effects over and over.

Checking the foil multiplier is how I like to gauge its appeal outside of Standard, and is a good measure of its likely future value.

Philosophy #2: Foils are more resistant to losing value when reprinted.

Note that I am not saying immune, I’m saying resistant. The price will likely drop at first but it won’t drop as far and it will eventually recover. Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite is an example.

She took a hit, being a foil in Modern Masters 2015 but it was for about 30% of her value, as compared to losing more than half with the nonfoil. The judge promo also puts a limit on her upper value, as it represents a very chase target, especially being written in Phyrexian script.

Notice, though, that large period of time when the foil was in the sub-$40 range. That’s the goal and the dream. If you foil out your deck when foils are new, then the price is perfect.

When a foil is reprinted, it’s very rarely in the same art and the same frame. Even when it is, the price will often rebound over time.

Case in point: Phyrexian Arena. Even with three foil versions (Apocalypse, 8th, and 9th) the card is old enough and awesome enough that all the versions are about $60.

Philosophy #3: Foil lands are often the hardest to acquire, the most expensive, and therefore the safest long-term value.

The cards that took me the longest to acquire were the Ravnica block bounce lands. No store had them in stock, and it seemed like no one had them for trade. Ever. It was easier to find filter lands, shocks, and everything else, but those bounce lands took me six months past the rest of them to get. Only when I saw on a message board that someone was breaking up a foil Cube did I get these lands.

Interestingly, those bounce lands had started to really increase in price from a stable $4 when Modern Masters 2015 came along. The originals have kept most of their value, while the new ones are about half that price. I think scarcity is at work there, in that the original foils are in decks and not in circulation.

I’m going to be watching the foil prices of the filter lands closely now that the Expeditions lands have been spoiled. Is it going to depress prices? Hold down the upper ones? Will the originals be on the market if lots of people upgrade to the newest versions?

Philosophy #4: Foils can be in worse condition, and there will still be a market.

Trust me on this: People who want foils want the foils badly. Being in less-than-perfect condition isn’t much of a barrier to acquisition. I wouldn’t give full value, don’t get me wrong, but a SP foil of a card I need in foil is going to have me drooling hard.

Selling the SP/MP/HP foil is not easy, but when you find the person who wants to have it, they will happily take it off of your hands.

Philosophy #5: Nonfoil reprints can increase the price of your foil.

Let’s look at Black Market, the foil from Mercadian Masques.

Being a $4 card in the newest Commander set hasn’t budged this price yet. But what it has done is increase the number of people who know about this card. From there, it’s only a matter of time before the larger number of decks it’s in translates to a greater demand for the foil.

Another example from two years ago: Forced Fruition. This was one of many cards to see a spike because lots of Nekusar, the Mindrazer decks. The nonfoil spiked, as did the foil. If this had been Standard, then the foils wouldn’t be much more than the regular version. Instead, we have a foil multiplier of a little more than two.

If you want to share other tips, tricks, or reasons to go foil, please feel free to comment. I try not to have this be a humblebrag about how I got in before things got expensive, but that’s what happened. It can also happen to you, if you start foiling now.

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