Six months, that’s my new timeline. I’ve written about it before but the truth of the matter is that in the Booster Fun era, it takes around six months for the cards in a Standard set to find their floor. It’s also enough time for combos to be found, hype to build up and wither away, or for Commander players to plant their flag yea or nay for a card.
We know that Commander play drives most demand these days, and one of these cards is a case study in that phenomenon. So what I want to do is take a look at the special set of March of the Machine: Aftermath, which was a very small set put into regular and Collector Boosters (they weren’t called Collector Boosters, but six/half dozen) and given some premium treatments.
To the cards!
The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
The new set is out, and prices are on the move. Mostly they are falling from the highest highs that a preorder can get to, but there are some surprising risers in this list too. Today I’m just looking at some of the biggest movers so far, and if they are done moving.
Chimil, the Inner Sun ($16 from $21) – It’s hard to argue with two things that Commander players love: ‘don’t counter my stuff’ and ‘give me free stuff’ are a pair of guiding principles I can get along with. It’s colorless, so you can put this into any deck you want, and you get the first Discover trigger at the end step that turn. Don’t even have to wait!
That said, this is neat but not terribly powerful. I expect a lot of players to try this and then take it out for something more impactful, more predictable. We have something similar in The Prismatic Bridge, but that’s five colors and makes you wait.
I believe this price will drop a lot farther, and if you want it, just wait. Lots of copies are coming into the market.
Ojer Pakpatiq, Deepest Epoch ($6 from $11) – Rebound is a fun ability, and this land is one of the easiest to flip back into a creature–just gotta be patient with it.
I am not expecting great things from this, but it’s cheaply costed enough to play it and immediately cast something for value. If it stays in play, I would expect the blue player to go absolutely bonkers, which is 100% what I would do.
Roaming Throne ($14 from $9) – I can see how people really want this card for their Commander decks. I’ve got three in my cart as we speak. However, people need to calm down. This is too high, and as the set gets opened, there’s going to be a whole lot of these around. I’m expecting this to settle in around $5.
The last rares to break $10 and stay there, for context, are mega-staples in Commander and constructed. Fable, Ledger Shredder, that sort of thing. Roaming Throne is neat, and most Commander players will want one, but be patient here.
Cavern of Souls ($30 from $35) – I’m not ready to buy in and I might never. Cavern is in the main set, and has the Cosmium Ink treatment, in addition to the LOTR versions we got in the summer and now in the Holiday version. The 2X2 printing hadn’t yet recovered from the summer versions, so adding these in will keep the price quite low for some time. It’ll probably get to $25, maybe even $20, because there’s not really a big typal deck that wants four of these in Constructed.
It’s a mega-staple in Commander, and rightfully so, but you should get your personal copies in a few months if you can stand the wait.
Bonehoard Dracosaur ($17 from $14) – I’ve already bought a borderless foil copy for my Ur-Dragon deck, and while I know the price is high right now, I want it. Commander players agree, as this hasn’t made a splash in 60-card formats yet, so it’s the casual players who are drawn to this icon of draconic card advantage.
If you get to untap with this card, it’s quite difficult to go wrong. You get two things you can play immediately, and bonuses for what they are, either a Treasure or a 3/1 creature. It’s also an overlap between a hot new creature type and one of the most popular decks in Magic.
I will be surprised if this goes much below $10, but even a smattering of play in Constructed will see this climbing pretty high.
Jadelight Spelunker ($0.50 from $3) – The Jadelight Ranger was at one point over $15. Granted that was a different era of Magic five years ago, but the core concept of value creature is still good, just not as good. This is one point of power weaker than the Ranger, which is real, but it is a powerhouse at every other point on the curve. I expect this card to be a weathervane for Standard paper play in the coming years, as it’s hard to imagine a Standard where this is unplayable.
Echoing Deeps ($3 from $6) – This isn’t as good with Dark Depths as Thespian’s Stage is. Stage can copy the card in play, and avoids the ‘enters with ten ice counters’ text. Deeps has that problem of coming in as a copy, so you still need a Vampire Hexmage to get the job done.
Otherwise, this is a super-niche card. It might see play in a Lands deck, or some Lotus Field backup, or some folks might play this in Commander, but this will be very close to bulk until the combo pops up.
Saheeli, the Sun’s Brilliance ($3.50 from $7.50) – There’s a lot to like about this Saheeli. She fits into Breya decks quite well, as well as Brudiclad and any other UR artifact commander. I don’t think that’s enough to keep her price from getting lower still, but the long-term demand for her in artifact decs should keep her out of the bulk bin.
Molten Collapse ($3 from $5.50) – This is an upgrade over Dreadbore, a card that has has some success over the years.
Right now, BR decks are more popular in formats other than Standard, but with the mana bases that exist, and three years’ worth of cards to choose from, this sort of card might become very popular. This will be in Standard for a very long time, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it went down to the $1 range now and bounced back up to $5 at some point in its lifetime.
If Fable and Invoke Despair were still legal, this would be a very popular card.
The Skullspore Nexus ($13 from $18) – This is not the card draw and counters engine that is The Great Henge, but it does have a lot of appeal in decks where creatures die, populate decks want this, and the always popular “Ghalta’s power is now 128 trample” sort of deck.
The abilities synthesize well together, and there’s going to undoubtedly be some ridiculous combos, but this is going to fall a whole lot farther, probably to $5 or less. Commander players will look at this as Wrath insurance, but you’ll just get one huge token that doesn’t have trample. I don’t think it’ll play out as well as people hope.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
Once more, dear friends, we head into the Collecting articles and try to turn a bunch of percentages into numbers that make sense. Wizards is boh obligated to be clear, due to the gambling laws in different areas, but has a vested interest in obfuscating the sheer number of packs it’ll take to get these rare cards.
With a little division and a reciprocal, we can take their percentages for a category and turn that into a clear number of needed packs to get the cards we want. Statistics aren’t guarantees, so keep that in mind when you’re using this guide.
Let’s get to the numbers.
There are THREE subsets of cards in this set. Three! We’ve got the REX set, which is all new cards using Jurassic World as inspiration, a mini-Universes Beyond. We’ve got the Special Guests, who can show up in any booster, and then we’re given Box Toppers.
The Box Toppers are pretty special this time around. Draft and Set Booster boxes get a nonfoil single-card pack, and Collector Boosters get a foil. There are 20 Toppers, referred to as the Treasure Trove and have the same LCC code as the Lost Caverns Commander set. Your odds are not 1/20, though, because there’s three rarities. One card, Chimil, the Inner Sun, is a new LCI card and the rest are reprints.
Let’s have a table, one that lists the rarity of each of your options, and your odds. Remember that you get one card PER BOX, so the numbers here are going to look different compared to the number of packs needed later in this article.
Type/Rarity (# of options)
Percent chance for any card of that category
Percent chance for a specific card of that category
# of CB BOXES to open one specific card from that category
Rare (7):Archaeomancer’s MapAmulet of VigorCoat of ArmsFist of SunsMimic VatStrionic ResonatorTemple Bell
28%
4%
25 Boxes
Mythic Rare (5):Wedding RingChalice of the VoidChimil, the Inner SunChromatic OrreryCoercive Portal
10%
2%
50 Boxes
I note that mythics are twice as hard to get as rares, which are twice as hard to get as uncommons. I like when there’s a clear progression, but it doesn’t always track this way. Just appeals to the symmetrist buried deep in my skull. Fifty boxes is 600 packs, and that’s second on today’s list of ‘how damn rare are these rares?!’
In each Collector Booster, there are slots for subsets of cards. We’re going to start around the middle, with the foil Uncommons and their Special Guests, and then jump two slots to the Commander cards, going upwards on this graphic:
Pitiless Plunderer is the main uncommon I care about, but others may have some impact as well. So I’ve arranged a table for these uncommons, and sure enough, the Special Guests are a tough card to open, even at uncommon:
Type/Rarity (# of options)
Percent chance for any card of that category
Percent chance for a specific card of that category
# of CBs to open one specific card from that category
Uncommon Borderless Foil Special Guest (5)
3%
0.6%
166.67
Uncommon Borderless Foil Dinosaur (6)
41%
6.83%
14.6
Uncommon Showcase Foil Lost Caverns of Ixalan (8)
55%
6.88%
14.5
Next, let’s look at the Commander cards, which covers some of the legends and new cards. We get a slot of alternate frames, with both foils and nonfoils present in the same slot.
Note that the article doesn’t give separate stats for rares and mythics, so I’m forced to presume that they fall at equal rates. This sort of makes sense: rarity in the Commander lists is sort of irrelevant, and this includes what used to be the Jumpstart cards. If we get data or an update that indicates otherwise, I’ll come back and edit this section with the new numbers.
Type/Rarity (# of options)
Percent chance for any card of that category
Percent chance for a specific card of that category
# of CBs to open one specific card from that category
Next up, a nonfoil Showcase or Borderless card, either rare or mythic.
Type/Rarity (# of options)
Percent chance for any card of that category
Percent chance for a specific card of that category
# of CBs to open one specific card from that category
Nonfoil Showcase Rare (8)
22.5%
2.81%
35.5
Nonfoil Showcase Mythic Rare (11)
14.8%
1.34%
74.32
Nonfoil Borderless Rare (18)
50.7%
2.81%
35.5
Nonfoil Borderless Mythic Rare (14)
10.56%
0.75%
132.57
Nonfoil Borderless Quintorius Kand (1)
0.7%
0.7%
142.8
Nonfoil Showcase Quintorius Kand (1)
0.7%
0.7%
142.8
After that, a Jurassic World slot! Nonfoil, traditional foil, and Emblem variants all appear here at different rates, ranging from ‘pretty common’ to ‘holy guacamole that is mega rare!’
Type/Rarity (# of options)
Percent chance for any card of that category
Percent chance for a specific card of that category
# of CBs to open one specific card from that category
Nonfoil Borderless Nonlands (20)
36.3%
1.8%
55.1
Nonfoil Borderless Lands (6)
43.6%
7.26%
13.7
Traditional Foil Borderless Nonlands (20)
8.9%
0.445%
224.72
Traditional Foil Borderless Lands (6)
10.7%
1.78%
56.07
Traditional Foil Emblem Variant (19)
0.5%
0.02%
3800
I’ve been tracking rarities for years, and 3800 is among the hardest pulls without getting into serialized cards. It’s analogous to the original Realms and Relics Surge foils, and slightly MORE rare than Human Sol Rings (xxx/900) were in the summer LOTR release.
Finally, a slot for Booster Fun variants:
Type/Rarity (# of options)
Percent chance for any card of that category
Percent chance for a specific card of that category
# of CBs to open one specific card from that category
Traditional Foil Extended Art Rare (38)
46.7%
1.23%
81.37
Traditional Foil Extended Art Mythic Rare (2)
1.2%
0.6%
166.67
Traditional Foil Showcase Rare (8)
9.8%
1.22%
81.6
Traditional Foil Showcase Mythic Rare (12)
6.7%
.56%
179.1
Traditional Foil Borderless Rare (18)
22%
1.22%
81.81
Traditional Foil Borderless Mythic Rare (8)
4.9%
0.61%
163.27
Traditional Foil Borderless Special Guest Rare or Mythic Rare (13)
8%
0.61%
162.5
Neon Ink Mana Crypt or Cavern of Souls (11)
Less than 1% (.7% if these numbers are correct)
0.7%
At least every 142 packs for any non-yellow version of either
The different variants of Neon Ink aren’t listed as how common they are in relation to each other. All we’re told is “Here are the colors as they appear in order from rarest to least rare: three-color, red, purple, blue, green, and yellow.” Yellow is the LGS’s version to give away, and should be the cheapest version by far. I would love to give you more specifics but they haven’t told us yet. Still, at under 1%, you’re looking at ANY Neon Ink about every 142 packs. (for specifically Mana Crypt or Cavern, it would be double that, 284)
One thing that jumps out at me is how close this distribution is to the model we used to get, that rares are always twice as common as mythics. They don’t have it in a straightforward model, at least not quite yet, but for this set, the math holds.
The second thing I notice is that the foil REX cards are hard to pull at around 224 CB packs for a specific copy, but the Emblem foils are roughly as rare as the 900 serialized Human Sol Rings. These will end up super expensive. If you find some for preorder, I’d imagine a lot of the orders will get canceled.
Finally, let’s get a table in with some specific cards, and I’m skipping the Neon Ink variants because I’m not sure what the precise numbers are.
Card/treatment/set
Approx. number of CBs needed to find one copy
Emblem Foil Indomitus Rex, Alpha (REX)
3800
Borderless Foil Special Guest Pitiless Plunderer (SPG)
166.67
Borderless Foil Special Guest Mirri, Weatherlight Duelist (SPG)
162.5
Traditional Foil Showcase Ojer Taq, Deepest Fountation (LCI)
179.1
Borderless Foil Permission Denied (REX)
224.72
Traditional Foil Showcase Hakbal of the Surging Soul (LCC)
160
Treasure Trove Foil Chromatic Orrey (LCC)
600
Treasure Trove Foil Strionic Resonator (LCC)
300
Treasure Trove Foil Worn Powerstone (LCC)
156
I hope these tables and figures make sense to you, and if they don’t, I strongly encourage you to reach out on the ProTrader Discord, hit me up on Twitter, or leave some comments. I’m happy to explain my methods. Good luck and open well!
Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
The previews for Lost Caverns of Ixalan are in full force, and this week we got the full decklists for the Commander decks. Pirates, Vampires, Merfolk and Dinosaurs! For each deck, I’m going to go over some cards that they didn’t print for the theme, and if there’s a good spec.
Considering we got four decks, all of which are devoted to a single creature type each, I’m surprised that Urza’s Incubator isn’t on here. I’ve mentioned the card before, and it bears repeating: You should definitely get your personal copies now, as this many typal decks at once is a prime situation.
It’s been just at $20 for nonfoil copies, including the borderless, for several months now and it’s not going to go lower unless it’s reprinted again. That’s entirely possible, though this was a stellar opportunity to put the card in at least one of the typal decks. It’s an unfair card, though the effect is symmetrical, so be careful in pods where two people are running the same type.
Ahoy Mateys (Pirates) – They really did a remarkable job giving players every notable Pirate except for Ragavan and Dockside, but there’s a couple of sweet cards they missed.
Emberwilde Captain ($1 for the cheapest copy up to $3.50 for the most expensive)
Cards that invoke the Monarch are generally good cards. Monarch is an ability that is both fair and broken, something which really moves a game along when there’s four people all attacking each other. The Captain here has a fun damage bonus to hand out when someone attacks you. Sadly, the ability only triggers once, no matter how many creatures they swarm you with.
Pirated Copy ($10 for the only copy, a nonfoil) – Jumpstart is getting phased out, and this is one of the better cards to come out of that project. You can’t copy legendary creatures, sadly, but you do get the fun of drawing cards when it hits. There’s only the one version in circulation, so you might be able to get a big profit from these, no decisions about which one to chase.
Blood Rites (Vampires) – This is a realm where Vampires are white and black, so a lot of the sweet blue and red bloodsuckers were left out. Even so, there’s a couple of core creatures they didn’t include.
Captivating Vampire ($7 to $13) – The NM foils under $10 have already been bought out, but the foil price should reach $20 fairly easily once people get Commanders in hand and start building decks. It’s a truly unfair card in any Vampire deck, but Edgar’s propensity for token Vamps puts this in the upper echelon.
Malakir Bloodwitch (50¢ to $2) – There’s been no buyout but the card is 13 years old and there’s just not a lot left. I bought 10 in 2021 for MID/VOW block but never sold any. Protection is a less-desirable keyword these days but this card really shines with clone effects. Enjoy!
Vito, Thorn of the Dusk Rose ($4.50 to $13) – He’s a combo piece and a win condition all in one, able to swing board states that no one else can. It’s surprising how he’s dodged reprints all this time, but I wouldn’t expect that to last much longer.
Legion’s Landing ($3 to $15) – Commander is not usually a place for such an aggressive card, but even if you lose a lot of your attackers, having this ability on a land is nothing short of wonderful. More Vampires are always going to be needed.
Anowon, the Ruin Sage (50¢ to $20) – Another OG Zendikar block bloodsucker who’s dodged reprints, Anowon is an enormously unfair card. Make sure to smile big when you’re casting him or reminding opponents to sacrifice.
Rodolf Duskbringer ($6) – Jumpstart had some vicious rares, and I didn’t even know about this card till I did this research. Recursion is great, especially when it’s dependent on the life being gained, not the mana being spent. The card has fallen in price by a couple bucks recently, but the influx of vampires might raise it right back up.
Vampire Nocturnus ($4 to $30) – This was printed a couple of times, along with being a promo, so there’s a lot of copies to churn through. The good news is that if it’s a multicolor card that includes black on top, your Vampires get the bonus, and if you manage to clone the Nocturnus, you can get double the bonus!
Explorers of the Deep – There’s a few awesome Merfolk in white, but no good three-color option for the Commander. This being Simic, there’s a lot of busted stuff afoot.
Merrow Commerce ($4 to $35) – Wizards announced today that they are dropping ‘tribal’ as a term and will start using ‘kindred’ to denote having a creature type on a noncreature permanent. A lot of your Merfolk want to tap and untap, and Commerce is one of the ways to really crank the shenanigans in your deck.
Murkfiend Liege (50¢ to $18) – Not a Merfolk, but utterly busted. Many of your Merfolk will get the full +2/+2 bonus, and Iike I said, untapping is a mega bonus, especially with some of the creatures coming up on this list. Etched foils would be my target, as they are the only unique-looking version out there.
Lord of Atlantis ($5 to $40) – Just announced on the List, so the profit margin might be impacted, but you only get a Lord every 720 Set Boosters. I’m not expecting a huge influx of copies, but I am expecting a huge number of people to seek out a copy.
Lullmage Mentor ($1 to $9) – Be warned, you get this plus an untapper out, and you might induce some rage-quits at your table, leading to you being targeted in subsequent games. Use tools like this thoughtfully, and never hastily.
Merrow Harbinger ($1 to $11) – I’m pretty amazed that these weren’t printed in the deck, to even add the nonfoils in, but here we are, with a $1 card set to bump to $2 or $3 given the demand and the amazing amount of time since this has had a printing.
Path of Discovery ($1 to $3) – Finally, since so much of this deck focuses on exploring, why not make sure that every creature has explore? The foils are cheap still, and there’s plenty online to buy. Again, there’s nothing besides a regular frame foil to chase, so you can stock up if you like the spec.
Veloci-Ramp-Tor – A really amazing Dinosaur deck, highlighted by the reappearance of several key cards and awesome accessories.
Honestly, I wrote about a lot of cards in this deck last month. You can go back and read it here, but here’s what didn’t get printed from that article: Forerunners of the Empire, Kaheera, Polyraptor, Thrasta. The rest got tagged, so make your moves and good hunting!
Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY
ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.
