Ah, here we are, the dawn of a new set and a whole lot of numbers for me to crunch. Wizards has given us some information, and I can make some good estimates based on research, that combine to paint a pretty good picture of what we should expect in terms of how often the rarest cards drop.

A gentle reminder that this is statistics, not certainties. You might open two serialized cards in the same box, beating the odds. You might open two hundred CBS and not see a single serialized card.

Let’s get to the math, shall we?

Here is the official link for Collecting March of the Machine: https://magic.wizards.com/en/news/feature/collecting-march-of-the-machine. That’s got all the information we need for most of this.

Serialized cards: There’s 65 Multiverse Legends, 500 of each. In the next slot, there’s a spot for the five Praetor-Sagas to show up serialized. Then after that, a slot which could contain a serialized Uncommon from the set of 65. For any serialized card, you’re estimated to get one every 142.8 packs.

The serialized cards overrule whatever else you were going to open in that slot. We know that you’re less than 1% to open one, even with it being in three slots. There will be a total of 35,000 serialized cards to open, and given all the data we have, I’m estimating that it’s more like 0.07%, or one in 143, to open any serialized card of any rarity. Uncommon or Mythic, that’s your odds. If you want a specific card, you’re looking at 70x as many packs, or 10,010. Good luck!

Theoretically, you could open a pack with two serialized cards (one ML and one PS) but that’s something like .7% times .7%, which would be one in 20,408 packs. I would expect to see that a couple of times if I were watching every CB be opened. Three in a row? Sure, that’s only 1 in 2,915,452 packs. Possible, but incredibly unlikely. We estimate that there’s around 5 million Collector Booster packs printed per Standard set. If you get better information, please, reach out to me in the comments, on Discord, or Twitter.

I also want to talk about your odds of pulling a MUL card in Draft Boosters. Every Draft Booster gets a card from that subset. The ratio has traditionally been three uncommons for every one rare and for every .5 mythic rares. Means now it’s 6:2:1, and given the number we have at each rarity level, the pool you pull from for a MUL card is 15 mythics (1 of each), 60 rares, (2 of each), and 120 uncommons (6 of each). Total of 195, and that’s how many packs you’ll need to open to get a nonfoil Ragavan. Only six boxes!

We have a handy graphic for what’s in a Collector Booster, thank you Wizards:

Let’s work from the top of the image downwards (This would also be from the last card in the pack forward, whichever terminology works for you.)

We are given this ratio in the Collecting article for Collector Boosters, and each version has its own collector number: 

Traditional foil in 75% of boosters

Foil etched in 14% of boosters

Halo foil in 10% of boosters

Serialized double rainbow in < 1% of boosters

This first (last) slot is only rares and mythics, and we’re also told that there are 20 uncommons, 30 rares, and 15 mythic rares. The uncommons will be in a different slot, so we get to focus on the rares and mythics. Wizards likes a 2:1 ratio for rares and mythics, so the pool of available cards will be 75 cards deep. Your chances of getting a specific rare are 2/75, or 1/37.5. Specific mythics are 1/75.

However, that’s for any version. We have no less than three foil treatments to choose from here. Given the ratios, we can figure out that for every Halo Foil Ragavan, we’ll get 1.4 Etched Foil and 7.5 Traditional Foil versions of the same card. In execution, this means we have to roll for a card and then roll for the version, not counting serialized versions because those are just miracle pulls. Let’s have a table for this slot only, so no uncommons:

Rarity of card	CBs to get any version of a specific card	CBs to get a specific Traditional Foil	CBs to get a specific Etched Foil	CBs to get a specific Halo Foil
Rare	37.5	50	267.9	375
Mythic	75	100	535.7	750

This is a clever trick by Wizards to make new rarities of a card without extra frames or art direction. It will add both a lot of traditional foil copies for those who like shiny things and at the same time, give high-end collectors something to chase that isn’t the serialized version.

The next slot is more of ‘everything else jammed in here’ feeling from the main set. This has all of the following, all rares and mythics in traditional foil. We’ve established that Praetors are around every 142.8 packs, but let’s count up what numbers we’re looking at for these cards.

	# of rares	# of mythics
Planar Booster Fun from March of the Machine	18	10
Extended art from March of the Machine	31	2
Extended art from March of the Machine Jumpstart	5
Borderless art from March of the Machine		3
Extended art from March of the Machine Commander	42	12
	96	27

Important to note that these are foil pulls, and so there will be FEA versions of all the Commander cards. Other sets, there have been occasional foils, or EA only with no foils, and here we get the full FEA. 

Our pool in this slot is 219 cards, which is lower than a lot of other sets have been if you compare them. ONE was every 326 for Phyrexian planeswalkers, and BRO was every 299 packs for FEA mythics. The big difference in MOM is that we don’t have multiple versions of the same card, aside from the Praetors. 

I’m expecting a LOT of these cards to be out there, given the chase for serialized cards and the way players go after lotto tickets like this.

	Rarity	Percent chance for any card of that category	Percent chance for a specific card of that category	# of CBs to open one specific card from that category
Planar Booster Fun from March of the Machine	Rare	16.4%	0.9%	109.5
	Mythic	9.1%	0.45%	219
Extended art from March of the Machine	Rare	28.3%	0.9%	109.5
	Mythic	0.9%	0.45%	219
Extended art from March of the Machine Jumpstart	Rare	4.6%	0.9%	109.5
Borderless art from March of the Machine	Mythic	1.4%	0.45%	219
Extended art from March of the Machine Commander	Rare	38.4%	0.9%	109.5
	Mythic	5.5%	0.45%	219

The MUL uncommons get two whole slots to themselves: one for Halo and Etched foils, plus the serialized versions, and then a slot dedicated to traditional foils alone. With 20 uncommons in that subset, you’ve got this set of odds over those two slots:

	Rarity	Percent chance for any card of that category	Percent chance for a specific card of that category	# of CBs to open one specific card from that category
Halo Foil Uncommon from MUL subset	Uncommon	25%	1.25%	80
Etched Foil Uncommon from MUL subset	Uncommon	75%	3.75%	26.7
Traditional Foil Uncommon from MUL subset	Uncommon	100%	5%	20

With all this in mind, let’s put the data together and get some outcomes for different cards we might be after: 

	Rarity	Percent chance for any card of that category	Percent chance for a specific card of that category	# of CBs to open one specific card from that category
MUL Traditional Foil	Uncommon	100%	5%	20
MUL Traditional Foil	Rare	50%	2%	50
MUL Traditional Foil	Mythic	25%	1%	100
MUL Etched Foil	Uncommon	75%	3.75%	26.7
MUL Etched Foil	Rare	9.3%	0.3%	267.9
MUL Etched Foil	Mythic	4.6%	0.18%	535.7
MUL Halo Foil	Uncommon	25%	1.25%	80
MUL Halo Foil	Rare	6.6%	2.6%	375
MUL Halo Foil	Mythic	3.3%	0.13%	750
MUL or MOM Serialized	Any	0.7%	0.0001%	10,010
MOM Planar Frame	Rare	16.4%	0.9%	109.5
MOM Planar Frame	Mythic	9.1%	0.45%	219
MOM Foil Extended Art	Rare	28.3%	0.9%	109.5
MOM Foil Extended Art	Mythic	0.9%	0.45%	219
MOM Jumpstart FEA	Rare	4.6%	0.9%	109.5
MOM Foil Borderless	Mythic	1.4%	0.45%	219
MOC Foil Extended Art	Rare	38.4%	0.9%	109.5
MOC Foil Extended Art	Mythic	5.5%	0.45%	219

And finally, let’s look at examples of the rarest cards:

Card/treatment/set	Approx. number of CBs needed to find one copy
Serialized Foil Double Rainbow Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer (MUL)	10,010
Traditional Foil Planar Frame Sheoldred, Whispering One (MUL)	100
Etched Planar Foil Atraxa, Praetors’ Voice (MUL)	535.7
Halo Foil Niv-Mizzet Reborn (MUL)	750
Traditional Foil Borderless Wrenn and Realmbreaker (MOM)	219
Traditional Foil Extended Art Guardian Scalelord (MOC)	109.5

There’s a lot of numbers here, and I’ve tried to clarify what is going on in each, as well as explain my math. If you want to discuss this, or point out my mistakes, please reach out on Twitter, in the Discord, or the comments below! 

[/hide]

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Early pre-order prices have come out for some of the mythics in March of the Machine, a set premiering the first new card type since Lorwyn gave us planeswalkers. As a result, the prices on these cards are mostly very high, and while I’m unlikely to be buying anything right now, it’s always a good idea to at least look and consider before dismissing out of hand. 

We haven’t gotten all of the mythics yet, but we’ve gotten a peek at Battles. In this set, all of the Battles are Sieges, where you cast the card, it’s in play and you get an effect, then you choose an opponent to defend it. Each Siege has a number of defense counters, which apparently can be attacked and removed just as planeswalkers can have happen. When the last is removed, the card transforms, and you’re told what to do. Neat!

Let’s talk about the cards we’ve seen. Please note that these preorder prices are accurate as of Friday morning, but those prices can move fast.

Wrenn and Realmbreaker (preordering for around $60) – There’s no doubt this is a good card, and anyone who’s played Chromatic Lantern knows how sweet it is to just tap whatever lands and cast everything. That’s a good ability, especially when stapled to WaR’s regular suite of land animation, regrowing a permanent, and an emblem that I’ll concede to just about every time because I can’t beat that level of card advantage.

However, this preorder price is a doozy. MOM is juiced as hell, with a set of expensive reprints, serialized versions, and serialized versions of expensive reprints! This is a regular Standard set, though, and that means we’re about to open an enormous amount of product. This price will fall quite far, and you should absolutely sell any copies you open/trade for at the prerelease before it drops to $20.

Sword of Once and Future ($30) – It’s really unfair that the first Sword of X and Y basically got you two cards’ worth of value on the first hit, because every Sword after that has had to live up to that standard. Several of the Swords can get you there, but this last Sword requires the right deck to be good. It will be very good in that deck, casting a free two-CMC-or-less spell every time it connects, but you can’t recast the same spell due to the exile clause. I think completionists will want this card, but I’m not sure about everyone else and this price will tumble to $10 or less.

Thalia and The Gitrog Monster ($27) – If you like giving your opponents a hard time, this is your Commander. It’s a huge slowdown, near-impossible to beat in combat, and can turn excess lands into cards in hand. I think we’re going to see a lot of these decks in Commander pods, and in Standard, it might be enough to get there given how greedy most manabases are. The price will fall, but I think there will be just enough demand to keep it from plummeting too far down.

Archangel Elspeth ($20) – This price feels about right, and that’s weird for me to think. Most cards fall, and perhaps this is the one that doesn’t. This version of Elspeth protects itself with a token, upgrades that token so you go from offense to defense real quick, and has an ultimate that may or may not be worth it, depending on your deck. There’s a mono-white aggro deck in Standard right now that is going to play at least two copies of this card, can you imagine a curve of Adeline, Resplendent Cathar into this? 

Elspeth might actually rise from this price at the beginning, so be aware. If you wanted to get your copies now, knowing you play a deck that wants her, I’d say go for it.

Chandra, Hope’s Beacon ($25) – Most of the Izzet legendary creatures for Commander want you to be casting lots of instants and sorceries, and this Chandra is an auto-include for such decks. Double Vision isn’t expensive and gives the same static ability, but this Chandra jams on the gas hard for what those decks want. It’s an excellent card, it will decide Commander games, and it’s overpriced at $25. It’ll settle at $15 or so.

Monastery Mentor ($5) – This was already Pioneer legal, so don’t get your hopes up for a spike here. Regular nonfoils are going to be a buck or two, and maybe the fancier versions can get higher, but there’s a lot of sets and a lot of inventory. I just can’t see it climbing higher.

Zurgo and Ojutai ($15) – I am a Dragon enthusiast, and I am enthusiastic about this card. It’s card to cast at three colors, so it needs the right deck, but hitting right away (and hitting a battle!) gets you a card back right away. This is important, because your opponents will be envious and kill this creature right away. I adore everything about this card, but I also recognize that it’s tough to cast and not something most decks will try to do. I’m expecting to see this at half its current price or less.

Invasion of Tarkir ($20) – Again, as a Dragons player, I’m eager to try this card. It’s two mana to hit something for 6-8 points of damage in my average hand, and the flip side is probably an instant concession from most tables. We also have ample evidence that the regular versions of things that are Dragon-focused aren’t necessarily expensive, and I expect this to get to $5 or less for regular versions. Don’t forget that The Ur-Dragon is getting a reprint this August, and we’re going to see a lot of people building Dragon decks, so it might bounce in price quickly or never get cheap at all. (Club meetings are Tuesdays, I’m the EVP in charge of enthusiasm, welcome aboard!)

Invasion of Shandalar (no price yet) – Another card that’s hard to argue with in most decks playing Green, this is pretty darn amazing. Three permanents is a lot, and hopefully at least one of them is a creature you can attack with. Outstanding Commander card, and something I’d like to stock up on when these are at their cheapest near the end of summer.

Invasion of Ravnica ($23) – A cute trick of a card, this is incredibly niche. It’s a niche that fits into a surprising amount of decks, though, and while I don’t think it’ll be expensive, I think it will get a lot of people trying it out. If you have a two-color Commander, you ought to consider the card. If you’ve got a lot of two-color spells, you should give it a try. Lots of decks can use a 5 mana ‘exile almost any permanent’ spell. Price-wise, this will be under $10 in a few weeks, so you don’t need to be in a hurry.

Invasion of New Phyrexia ($27) – The comparisons to Kamigawa’s Eiganjo Uprising are merited, as this is a very powerful spell for its cost. There is no point where it’s horrible, though three mana for a single 2/2 vigilance is below the curve. If you need it, then you need it. Don’t overlook that you can bounce the battle to your hand, as it’s a permanent. Recasting it should be backbreaking in most games. 

Should you flip into Teferi’s newest card, it’s also very powerful. The plus is great if you want filtering or have creatures, the emblem gets you farther ahead, and the minus three works great with vigilance creatures, which you happen to have!

I don’t think this will fall very far, price-wise. It fits into a lot of Commander decks, is likely to see some play in Standard, and being as modal as it is, it’s new and amazing. I’m doubtful it will fall much below $20 for a while, but it might by Christmas.

[/hide]

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

 I’ve written hundred of articles about cards worth buying, but I don’t think I’ve ever done a handy summary of the main reasons why I avoid buying cards. James and I talk about this on the MTG Fast Finance podcast, where we go over our picks and reader picks, but I felt it was high time for a compilation of things that steer me away.

Plus, we’re in a perfect storm of buying opportunities. We know a lot about what’s coming (Tom Bombadil, Slivers, a sheet of Legendary reprints, etc.) and we know there’s a lot of reprints coming up as well. Time to examine the categories and qualities that make for a bad spec!

One joke we make is that there’s no bad specs, only long-term ones. I can attest to this, having made multiple purchases of cards that just didn’t get there. Perhaps I’ll examine the longest-term holds I currently have in the future, but when you’re speculating on cards, one of the risks is that you buy a hundred copies of Yawgmoth’s Vile Offering and they go nowhere.

Red Flag #1: Preconstructed deck reprints

Wizards puts a certain amount of value into the Commander-focused precon decks. Needs to be enough that people feel they are getting their money’s worth, but not so much that big operations can just take all the decks and crack them for singles. It’s a fine line to walk, made worse by the timing. They have to decide months, sometimes years in advance what to put in these decks. 

One of the things that we talk about a lot is getting premium versions of a card, because those are less likely to be reprinted. The worst feeling for me as the owner of 104 copies of regular frame, nonfoil Yawgmoth’s Vile Offering is seeing that card in a precon deck. The only difference between what I have and what’s in the deck is a symbol. Sometimes that symbol is worth a lot due to scarcity factors, but generally it’s a dollar or two at most. 

So one of the things I watch out for, especially when there’s many things on the horizon, is what version of a card I’m going for. There’s often profit to be made in the basic versions of cards, but safety is found in the premium versions.

Red Flag #2: Too many premium versions 

A card can be a good spec but if there’s several options to choose from, it can be very tricky indeed. An example of this can be found in Modern Horizons 2: the enemy fetchlands.

That’s a card (and a cycle of cards honestly) that are crying out to be purchased. Modern Horizons 2 was opened for a long time, longer than anyone expected, and while some of the chase mythics are hot as can be (Ragavan and the pitch Elementals) a lot of the other cards and reprints have become quite reasonably priced.

Question is, do you buy the old border foil? The textured retro frame? The FEA versions? This is to go with the OG Zendikar ones, or the Expedition frame from Battle for Zendikar? Maybe the Zendikar Rising Expedition? Perhaps the unique art and lower supply present on the Secret Lair nonfoil?

Whenever possible, we want to focus on one special frame. Cards that have gotten a retro foil, a Secret Lair, and a FEA version mean that while all of them might well rise, they’ll all move together and move more slowly. For example, Sram, Senior Edificer:

The Retro foil from Time Spiral Remastered is the only special version, everything else is a foil regular frame. Focus on cards like that.

Red Flag #3: Regular foil versions

In the Collector Booster age, it’s become obvious that players don’t want just a shiny card, they want a rare shiny card. For cards that have a regular, a foil, an Extended Art and a FEA, the first three versions of the card tend to be close together in price. Foil cards in the regular frame might as well be regular nonfoils, in terms of their price. 

Foils are just not prioritized the same way other versions are. Nonfoils are better for sanctioned play, as there’s no curling issues. Special-frame nonfoils are often more valuable than original-frame foils, making the choice that much simpler. The only time I’ve ever gone after regular foils has been when they are the last to spike, the leftovers. Otherwise, I’m staying away.

Red Flag #4: Cards that have been outclassed/obsolete 

Magic has had something like 25,000 unique cards printed in its lifetime. Power creep renders some cards worse than others, or just not good enough for the modern times. That’s perfectly okay, that’s the sign of a healthy game, it’s evolving past its origins. 

Some cards from early sets are ridiculously strong, undercosted, or did broken things. Others were too synergistic, and will never be reprinted. Consider a card like Ancient Ziggurat vs. Unclaimed Territory. Why would I ever spec on a strictly worse card?

Exceptions here can include things like a tiny supply or being on the Reserve List. there are some breathtakingly bad cards on that list, and some of them have gone through notable spikes for that reason and that reason alone. Would you believe me if I told you that in 2016, Narwhal spiked to ten bucks on RL hype?

I hope this list of what not to do helps guide your future efforts, and explains what we’re up to when we’re making picks. It’s important to avoid the bad, as well as buy the good stuff!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Earlier this week, we got our first taste of the Lord of the Rings set coming this summer. The One Ring has made Mind over Matter spike, there’s other combos coming, but for my money, this might be the best value-add in the set:

Some cards have started to grow as a result of Tom’s preview, but there’s still a lot of planning that can be done and profits to be made when Saga-related cards start spiking in June.

A caveat here: We’re getting an Enchantment-themed preconstructed deck in Commander Masters in August, so some of these might be reprinted then, in the main LotR set, or even in a Secret Lair before then. These are the risks in the modern day, and while we can minimize the problems, sometimes a fresh wave comes along.

Power Conduit ($1.50 for the cheapest version, $22 for the most expensive) – This card has been a rollercoaster, allowing for multiple peaks and valleys as it interacts with new things.

Sagas really, really, REALLY want the ability to remove a counter. If you can remove a counter while the last chapter ability is on the stack, you won’t lose your Saga. From the Comprehensive Rules: “704.5s If the number of lore counters on a Saga permanent is greater than or equal to its final chapter number and it isn’t the source of a chapter ability that has triggered but not yet left the stack, that Saga’s controller sacrifices it. See rule 714, ‘Saga Cards.’ “

This means that we can re-use the final abilities of Sagas, as long as we can remove a counter at instant speed. Power Conduit is one way to do that, and it’ll do that for no mana, plus give you some +1/+1 counters if you’d like! I fully expect that you can buy these for under $2 for a little longer, with the goal of selling near $5.

Hex Parasite ($4 to $15) – This costs some mana, but works in the same way. 

Hex Parasite hasn’t ridden the same set of waves because it’s got a black color identity, and the only Saga commander we’ve had so far was GW. Make no mistake, though, a lot of cheap copies have already been scooped up. There’s still room for profit here, especially on the foils. I think a double-up to $30 is likely, as it was a third set rare from 2011. Barring a reprint, the supply here is tiny indeed. 

Resourceful Defense ($5 to $7) – There’s a lot of fun applications for this card, but it’s expensive to use. One thing that can happen, if you want it to, is that one Saga having its final chapter can trigger another Saga, and then a third, until all of them are done. You might enjoy those dominoes tumbling, you might not. If you have Myth Realized or MindUnbound, those are cards that would really like some spare lore counters, too. Either way, I’d expect the EA versions of this to hit at least $10, and possibly $15.

Scholar of New Horizons (both versions under $1) – This might be a great brick play, since it was in the precon retro border deck for Brothers’ War Commander. Again, we get to remove a counter and go get a Plains (note, not a basic version, so shocks/Triomes are options) because Sagas are mana hungry!

Historian’s Boon (all versions under $1) – Dominaria United Commander did have FEA versions of some cards, and that’s definitely where I want to be with these copies. The reprint risk is very high here, but at such a low buy-in, you can get a brick and not worry too much.

Chisei, Heart of Oceans ($1 to $11) – Removing a counter is generally good for Sagas, and while this isn’t at instant speed, it’s a way to keep using Sagas.

There’s other fun things that remove counters (Sanctuary Warden, Thrull Parasite) but there’s also some fun Sagas and accessories that deserve some attention too.

Hall of Heliod’s Generosity ($9 to $17) – Many copies have sold since the preview for Tom, but there’s still a lot left out there. Prices haven’t gone up much yet, and I especially think the retro foils from MH1 are the play here. It’s always good to recur your Sagas, but putting them on top is so wonderfully synergistic with Tom!

I fully expect the OBF version to hit $25, maybe even $35. A lot of copies were soaked up by other enchantment themes, and with Sagas constantly coming and going, the card will do a lot of work in this deck too.

Brilliant Restoration ($0.50 to $2) – There’s more than a few ways to bring back all enchantments at once, but this is the most recent and very inexpensive for premium versions. I generally prefer special frames over EA versions, but both of those should rise at the same rate because the two versions should have had roughly the same number printed.

Kiora Bests the Sea God ($3 to $6) – If Saga accessories are good, all the Sagas should come along as well. This is a strong candidate for a reprint soon, so I’m less eager to buy some copies, but I’m fully prepared for this to bump to $10+ if it’s not given new inventory. 

Phyrexian Scriptures ($2 to $9) – This had a List version that’s quite affordable, to go with Tom Bombadil being indestructible if you have the right amount of Sagas out on the board. Combining this and Power Conduit means you’re wiping the board every single turn, and that’s a glorious time indeed.

The Cruelty of Gix ($1 to $3) – Read Ahead is a very powerful ability with this deck, and it’s easy to imagine a scenario where the last ability is powerfully degenerate, given how Commander decks operate. These two black Sagas haven’t had a chance to shine, but I think Tom will bring out their best play patterns and really increase the prices.

The Elder Dragon War (bulk to $1) – All of these abilities are worth doing over and over again, so you decide which useful thing to repeat: pyroclasm, rummaging, or making Dragon tokens.

The Kami War ($0.50 to $2) – Again, this is a broken Saga doing broken things, and when you build the deck right you’re going to do those things on a loop! Enjoy!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.