Category Archives: Casual Fridays

The World Championship Decks and You

The World Championships are this weekend, and the format is Standard. Given that we don’t really have GP-level events yet (though SCG and CFB are trying!) and the maze to professional play is confusing, I normally wouldn’t be paying attention to Standard.

However, it’s a harbinger. I want to look for two things from these decklists, and from this event: What’s powerful from Standard that’s in Midnight Hunt (because that’s a set that’s legal for the next TWO years!) and what’s underpriced that’s poised to take a jump. Let’s dive in, shall we?

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Tribal Cards in Midnight Hunt

One of the things I always look for in a new set is the presence of tribal cards or tribal enablers. It’s a truth that EDH drives the majority of sales, and the cards in Commander that can really gain attention over time are the ones that slot into the most popular tribes.

So let’s take a look at Midnight Hunt and see what tribes get new toys. 

There’s a lot of cards out there that can help any tribe, but specifically, I’m taking a look at things with a creature type or things that help that tribe. 

Zombies

Tainted Adversary – This has a lot of potential in the long term. It’s a great way to make a sick mass of Zombies instantly, which a whole lot of decks and cards can take advantage of, even if the tokens are decayed. There’s things like Endless Ranks of the Dead or Shepherd of Rot which like a high Zombie count, or a whole batch at once can wipe the world away with Noxious Ghoul. Since they are all Decayed, you should also be playing the ‘when a Zombie dies’ effect like Diregraf Captain or Plague Belcher or Vengeful Dead. One big attack and then you get to make them pay a big price. Winner all around!

As a mythic, the Adversary probably won’t get dirt cheap, but it’ll have potential when the current Zombie rage dies down (pun intended). I will be hoping for a price as low as a couple dollars for the regular, and $7 for the foil extended art. 

Champion of the Perished – While I don’t think that this is a particularly strong card in a Zombie Commander deck, that’s not going to matter for the time when a new Zombie fad overtakes the nation. Zombies are really short on powerful one-drops, and it’s got a lot of potential to be very good, given the right draws. 

This also has a chance to be good in Standard, given the impressive number of Decayed tokens that a dedicated deck would be able to produce, and as the big fall set, it’s got two years to make a splash. If no deck pops up right away with this card, it should end up at near-bulk prices, and that would be a lovely time to move in.

Siege Zombie (foil) – This is going to be a longer-term hold, but I think you’ll be able to get these on the very cheap, and the effect is really easy to abuse. It is vitally important that this says ‘three creatures’ and ‘each opponent’. This doesn’t have to be an effect of only Zombies, it can be abused with any horde of tokens and will drain all three of your enemies. 

This card is already super cheap, as a common, and it’ll just be a question of buying in at a price you like and being patient until a buylist is ready to take all the copies off of your hands.

Dragons 

Moonveil Regent – There’s a real shortage of Dragons with a big size and small mana cost. I don’t think this is a super strong pair of abilities for a Dragon, but any time you manage to empty your hand with a Dragon deck and then get another card or two, you’re ahead on things. The abilities are just bonuses, though, as the 4/4 flyer for 4 in the Dragon deck is really where things are. 

Again, this is a mythic, so it’s unlikely to get super cheap, but I’m hopeful it gets as low as two or three for a dollar.

Smoldering Egg – The real appeal here is that there’s a lot of busted things to do in Commander with this card. It’s both harder and easier to flip than Thing in the Ice, but TITI is pretty overpowered when it flips. This doesn’t bounce the board the same way, but can be triggered off of one expensive spell, instead of needing to cast four of them. The flipside dragon, Ashmouth Dragon, is undeniably useful, throwing Shocks around with all your spells. 

The Egg is already at a dollar and falling, but while it is still a Dragon, I’m doubtful this will see a lot of Commander play.

Spirits

Spectral Adversary – A cheap flier at only two mana and having Flash, this has strong potential in decks with a strong Spirit theme. One issue is that while there’s more than one lord for Spirits, they don’t really have an amazing themed Commander. For that reason, I like stockpiling Spirit-themed cards, so that if they print a new Spirit Commander (like they did with Zombies in Midnight Hunt) I’m ready to sell into the hype and cash in fast.

This adversary benefits from flash and flying, but also has a cheaper multikicker cost. That, plus the rules of phasing, allowing for it to save other creatures of yours and have them ready to counterattack as soon as it’s your turn. Phasing can also be used aggressively, getting their potential blockers out of the way. There’s a lot of flexibility for only two mana to start! Keep in mind that this has two years to get good, or find a home. It’s dropped to the $5 range, but I’m looking for it to get close to a dollar.

Patrician Geist – Here’s another Spirit lord, and while the second ability is potentially good, the main thing is that it’s one more card to beef up the tribe. This is already gettable for a quarter, but I’m not sure it’s good enough in Modern Spirits to warrant even being a three-of. Still, if the right Commander comes along, this will pop, along with so many other cards.

Vampires

Falkenrath Pit Fighter – Honestly, the synergy with Edgar Markov is breathtaking, and Edgar is already a very good Commander for the tribe. We should expect more Vampire goodies in the next set, and when this gets to bulk status, I’ll want to have more than a few copies to buylist away.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

What I’m Watching From Midnight Hunt

With a new set, I don’t like to buy in right away. There’s plenty of room for things to fall as sets get opened, and with that in mind, I’ve put together a list of cards that I want to buy, if they get to the right price. We’ve got a little bit of EDHREC data in, but this is more about the cards that are either on a trajectory to very cheap or are due for a price correction.

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

expensive cards ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

The Math Of Innistrad: Midnight Hunt

All right, everyone, let’s get into the distributions of different Innistrad: Midnight Hunt cards. There’s three variants, plus the usual Extended Art treatment. Wizards has been good about not throwing any huge curveballs here since the 30% hurdle in Commander Legends, and it makes these calculations a lot easier. If you’re looking for your odds of a Borderless Foil Wrenn and Seven, look no further!

First, some raw numbers. There are 20 mythics in the set, and 64 rares. Plus, there’s 83 uncommons and 105 commons. Those won’t be as relevant to us, but as we’ll discuss, if a foil hits it big (Expressive Iteration, I’m looking at you!) suddenly that’s a very relevant number.

There’s two Showcase frames in this set: All of the Werewolves and Warlocks in the set get what’s called the Equinox frame, on both sides if it’s a two-faced card. 

Then we have the Eternal Night frame, a black-and-white sketch art to go with a more translucent frame. This is done to every legendary creature which isn’t in the Equinox frame. If it’s a two-sided card, both sides get this treatment.

Finally, we get the Borderless treatment, which is new art and has no borders. This is just the five slowlands, and the three planeswalkers. Interestingly, Arlinn, the Pack’s Hope is the only card to get three different arts: regular, Equinox, and Borderless.

There’s not a special version of a single card, the way there was a Phyrexian Vorinclex in Kaldheim, or a special subset as in the Mystical Archive. Also, there’s no etched foils in this set. Thankfully, this is a straightforward set, and we can make clear comparisons to other sets.

Now let’s talk about what you get in the three kinds of packs:

In a Draft Booster, you can get foils or nonfoils of almost anything. Foil Equinox, foil Borderless, both are possible, but NOT the Commander-only cards and not the Extended Art versions of cards. One out of three Draft boosters have a foil, but that’s a foil of anything, including the basic land. (which is good–the foils of these Eternal Night basics should be solid, financially)

Set Boosters do have a slot for the Commander cards, but only in nonfoil. You can get the same foils and nonfoils, otherwise, just more of them to go with the 25% chance of card from The List, which is 300 cards long, everything is of equal rarity, and you need to open 1200 Set Boosters to get a full set of The List. (you won’t get it at exactly 1200 because of the way probability works, but the math is sound.

The rarest cards are going to be the Foil Extended-Art mythics from this set. Not the Equinox and not the Eternal Night, since those foils can show up in Draft and Set Boosters. The EA treatment is exclusive to the Collector Boosters, and Wizards’ own graphics tell us that there’s really only one slot to worry about: 

So how rare is rare in that last slot? (Last, in this case, meaning that you’ll reveal it last. If you open a CB card by card, you’ll see things in bottom-up order!) Let’s have a table:

Type of cardNumber of optionsOdds of getting one of these in a given CB (last 2 slots)How many CBs need to be opened to get a specific card with that treatment
Foil Mythic Equinox1.66%151
Foil Rare Equinox810.6%75.5
Foil Mythic Eternal Night31.9%151
Foil Rare Eternal Night1114.6%75.5
Foil Mythic Borderless31.9%151
Foil Rare Borderless56.6%75.5
Foil Mythic Extended Art149.3%151
Foil Rare Extended Art4154.3%75.5

Remember, you are twice as likely to get a rare (65 options) as a mythic (21 options) and that’s where the denominator of 151 comes from.

So about 75% of Collector Boosters will have a foil rare of some kind in this slot. Note that Arlinn is the only foil mythic Equinox, as well as being a Borderless Planeswalker, so she will be 50% more common than any other mythic from this set. Put another way, for every two copies of Teferi, Who Slows the Sunset, there’s three copies of Arlinn, the Pack’s Hope.

Here’s a table for the nonfoils:

Type of cardNumber of optionsOdds of getting one of these in a given CB How many CBs need to be opened to get a specific card with that treatment
Nonfoil Mythic Equinox11.8%55
Nonfoil Rare Equinox829.1%22.5
Nonfoil Mythic Eternal Night35.4%55
Nonfoil Rare Eternal Night1140%22.5
Nonfoil Mythic Borderless35.4%55
Nonfoil Rare Borderless518.2%22.5
Nonfoil Mythic Extended Art (slot 3)1414.6%96
Nonfoil Rare Extended Art (slot 3)4185.4%48

Where does this set land compared to other sets? One more table!

setOdds of a specific foil rareOdds of a specific foil mythic
Innistrad: Midnight Hunt1/75.51/151
Forgotten Realms1/631/126
Strixhaven 1/154.51/309
Kaldheim1/641/128
Modern Horizons 21/126.51/253

We can see that things will be a little more rare than in AFR, and this doesn’t have the Vorinclex effect that Kaldheim was blessed with. Strixhaven is going to be an outlier for most things, because of the way that they set up the Mystical Archive.

One thing I want you to note, if you love buying Collector Boosters: These last three slots have some rough math. About 85% of those packs will have these as the final three cards: nonfoil rare EA, nonfoil rare showcase/borderless, foil EA/showcase/borderless rare. For each of those slots, you’ve got about a 15% chance to hit a mythic. Buying a box of 12 packs, the math says you’re getting about two mythics in each slot.

I hope this helps inform your buying decisions. If you find an error here, be kind, and post a comment or come mention it in the ProTrader Discord.