Yes, with another set comes the need to look at booster pack formulations and see what’s out there. We have an article about how to get the special Monster Manual versions of cards, or the Dungeon Modules, and we’re going to figure out how to get the cards that we want. 

For once, this is pretty straightforward, and I appreciate Wizards giving us a break from the wacky things they’ve done in sets to make certain things more scarce than usual. First, the basics: We have 101 commons, 80 uncommons, 60 rares, 20 mythic rares. That’s for the nonfoil, basic frames, and that’s what you’re opening and drafting if you’re doing this in paper.

Let’s start with the Showcase variants for this set, of which there are two: Monster Manual frames and the Classic Module treatment.

The Monster Manual is meant to be a throwback to, well, the Monster Manual from days of yore: 

Apparently these really pop in foil, but we will see. There are 16 commons with this look, plus 18 uncommons, 15 rares, and two mythics.

Then we have the Classic Module, which is only for lands: 

Since this is a lands-only treatment, it’s on one common, one uncommon, and seven rares. 

To go with the Showcase treatments, we get what we’re used to: Borderless cards with different art than their original card (5 uncommon dragons, one rare dragon, and eleven mythic dragons/planeswalkers) and Extended-Art cards (30 rares, seven mythics) to round out the set. Interestingly, the seven rare class cards don’t have any special treatments.

It’s pretty neat that there are four different treatments, but pay special attention to the lack of etched foiling here. We’ve got four treatments, and it’s either foiled in the traditional method or not foiled at all. No in-between of the etched versions to worry about.

Let’s take a moment and reflect on what you can find in a Draft Booster or a Set Booster. You will not find Extended Art cards, but you can get the other three treatments, in foil or nonfoil. Your odds are pretty terrible, though. 

We were told that 10% of Draft Boosters will have a rare or mythic with a different treatment. We also know that 33% of Draft Boosters will have a foil of any rarity replacing a common. Your odds of pulling an alternate-frame rare or mythic aren’t just 3.3% though. 

First, your odds of getting a foil rare or mythic in a Draft Booster are pretty bad. One in three, multiplied by the collation of rares/mythics to commons/uncommons gives you 5.3%. That’s the drop rate for foil rares and mythics, about one in every 20 packs. 

To get the variant foil frame in rare or mythic will be .53%, or roughly one in 189 packs, and that’s for any rare or mythic with a non-EA frame, of which there are 36 to choose from. So that Borderless Foil Tiamat will appear in one out of every 6,804 Draft Boosters, give or take.

If you want another way to talk about these numbers, you’ll get a foil rare or mythic rare in a variant frame about once per case of Draft Boosters.

When it comes to Set Boosters, your odds are improved, but I’m sad to say that I don’t have enough information to give you a percentage. You start with a guaranteed foil, but they haven’t yet published enough information about the collations for me to know how they got the 27% for two rares, 3% for three rares, and less than 1% for four rares. 

If more information gets published, I will update this section. 

Collector Boosters are the main event, though. First of all, it’s the only place to get Extended Art versions of cards, though as we’ve seen, the foil versions of the Showcase frames aren’t plentiful either.

The big draw is going to be that first slot. A foil rare or mythic of anything special, and this we can indeed calculate:

	Borderless	Classic Module	Monster Manual	Extended Art	Totals
# of Rares	1	7	15	30	53
# of Mythics	11	0	2	7	20

Given that rares are twice as common as mythics, your odds of any specific rare from these four categories is 1/63, and for a particular mythic it’s going to be 1/126.

This is in line with the ratios from Standard sets, but keep in mind that there are often special cases, like a Mystical Archive or a foil Phyrexian Vorinclex messing with our perceptions of scarcity. Let’s do some comparing:

	Odds of a specific rare	Odds of a specific mythic
Forgotten Realms	1/63	1/126
Strixhaven	1/154.5	1/309
Kaldheim	1/64	1/128
Modern Horizons 2	1/126.5	1/253

I don’t want to compare TSR here (no Collector Boosters) or Commander Legends (see gimmick below) but you can see that Forgotten Realms is going to play out a lot like Kaldheim did, only without the Vorinclex to be the chase card.

Also, the way that the Mystical Archive skewed the heck out of Strixhaven bugs me. Just a whole lot of rares crammed into one spot. Should have been 1/159 for mythics and 1/79.5 for rares. 

I’ve talked in other recent articles about how this set is going to fall fast, given the lack of truly chase/powerful cards, and I haven’t seen anything in the distribution of the set to make me think otherwise. Commander Legends had a gimmick where in one slot, your Collector Boosters had only a 30% chance to contain a Foil Extended Art card. They have upped that ratio considerably, thank goodness. 

However, keep in mind that if a set is viewed as underpowered or low value, then less people will open it, making it more scarce. That’s a fine line to walk, and I think we will have our chances at buying AFR at very low prices. Just be aware of the complications, which we will address with individual cards as we go forward.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

There’s a whole lot of hype around the cool things that are being revealed with Adventures in the Forgotten Realms, and we can do some preordering already! Some of these look like fantastic deals, and some are definitely traps to avoid. Let’s dive in, shall we?

First of all, we need to get something out in the open: This set, so far, does not have a chase card. The most expensive card is going to be a cool Commander, and do a lot of work for Dragons in general, but we haven’t yet gotten the “HOLY HELL TAKE ALL MY MONEY” reveal that we’ve had: Ragavan/OBF fetches, the Mystical Archive, Phyrexian Foil Vorinclex, and so on.

None of the cards previewed are very expensive as yet, which speaks not just to the power level of the cards, but the artistic choices Wizards has made here. We aren’t going to do anything too amazing…yet. There’s still a week of previews to go, though!

Tiamat ($25) – This is currently the most expensive card you can preorder from the set, at twenty-five bucks! It’s hard to argue with what this card tells you to do as a Commander: Play lots of Dragons (Changelings!) and go find five of them every time you cast Tiamat. That’s hard to argue with as card advantage, and if you want to play some kind of five-color Dragons strategy, you’re either getting these cards or you’re playing The Ur-Dragon for the mana advantage.

I don’t think this price will hold, though. The formula for expensive cards involves being in demand across a lot of formats/decks. The commander is almost never the expensive card, and that doesn’t bode well for Tiamat’s future price. This will fall to $15 easily, more likely $10.

Demilich ($15) – This has real potential in decks that want to play lots of instants and sorceries, though you’ll never pay less than four mana all told. Theoretically with some free spells you can get there sooner, but Gitaxian Probe isn’t legal anywhere and you’ll have to work pretty hard. The ability to recur this card is a big plus for it, and it seems best suited to play with Arclight Phoenix decks. Please note that this doesn’t have flying or haste or anything. It’s just a 4/3 durdle on the ground, easily blocked and killed. This should drop in price by at least half, sadly.

Circle of Dreams Druid ($5) – This is a lot more than an auto-play for Elf decks in any format. It’s a fixed version of a totally busted Reserved List card. We have another fixed version of Gaea’s Cradle to compare with, though: Growing Rites of Itlimoc.

I don’t think I want to buy the Druid at $5, though. Everything has to go downwards, generally speaking, but the value in this set has to go someplace. Long-term, I think this card has fantastic potential and I want lots of copies in my spec box, I just don’t want to buy at this price. I will be watching this closely to see what happens early on–this could be one of the fastest risers in the set because it goes so well into a range of decks and formats.

Sphere of Annihilation (75 cents or so) – Honestly, this is a card that various flavors of control decks have wanted for a long time. I genuinely think this is underpriced, given the flexibility it offers. It’s going to get a lot of use at an X-value of one or two, and if they go over the top at three, that’s what your targeted kill spells are for. Opponents also won’t play into it, giving you that much more time. Control decks crave time, as they have the resources and per-card power to win the long game. I’m a big fan of what this offers, and while I’m not yet ready to buy in, this is another card that I’ll be watching closely.

Tasha’s Hideous Laughter ($4) – If you think Modern Mill is a viable strategy now, here’s your happiest of days. Lurrus of the Dream-Den decks are all over the place in Modern, and while their spells are not costing two or less, Modern as a format is really getting faster and faster. Everyone wants to cost less, to get under the competition. Tasha’s Hideous Laughter is the punishment for embracing that mindset.

Again, I’m not buying yet, but we’ve seen the legs that some mill cards can have, and this is a spell that will be very popular for people who like to do that. I’d prefer to buy in at a buck or less, but this is a spell that puts stars in peoples’ eyes about what it ‘could’ be, not what it is. Note that it’s ‘each opponent’, for those of you who like to use this strategy in Commander games. Godspeed.

Cave of the Frost Dragon ($1.50) and the other new creaturelands (less) – This has been a banner year for creaturelands, I don’t think we’ve ever had so many in Standard before. Crawling Barrens, then Faceless Haven, and now a cycle of five that are all good at what they do. The white, blue, and black ones all make sense, the red one is great in an all-in attacking deck, and we haven’t gotten the green one yet. Celestial Colonnade and Creeping Tar Pit are still the best around given their pedigrees, but what’s surprising to me is that neither of the colorless lands have made a big impact on Standard. Is it just because control decks aren’t great right now, and we need rotation to make them good again? We shall see. 

You’re going to be able to get these lands for near-bulk prices, and that’s going to be very tempting. Problem is, it’s difficult to predict which of these five colors will be the one that’s played a lot after rotation in the fall. If you feel confident that you can pick the winner, go for it. With seven creaturelands, I don’t think I can snag the one, and the return isn’t worth picking up a brick of each. If they are all a dime each, and you buy 7 bricks of 100 each, the one that hits needs to be bought for 70 cents each for you to just break even. Plus, we’re talking rares, not mythics, and there will be a whole lot of these out there. It’s not worth it, I advocate staying away.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Modern Horizons 2 has been live for a week, and we’ve got some price data to look at. Some things are rising, most of them are falling, and right now, it’s quite possible for a $350 Collector Booster box to yield $600 or more of retail value. There’s always been chances for things like that, but there’s a lot of pricey cards still to go in the set.

Let’s take a look at some of these price movements and see what’s real and what’s illusion, as well as decide what to do about it.

Fetchlands (Down about 20%-30%) – Let’s call up the graph for the least-sought-after version of the least-used fetchland: Arid Mesa from Modern Masters 2017:

Pretty clear stuff. In April, this was $45. Now it’s $30. Perhaps, though, that’s because it’s a reprint, or a non-blue fetchland. So here’s Scalding Tarn, from OG Zendikar.

Also down, but to $60 from $80. I like comparing these because they reflect a trend, one that’s happening to all the ones that look the same except for the expansion symbol: They are on the decline. This is the first large-scale printing of fetches since the allied ones in Khans of Tarkir, and while MH2 is not to that scale, it’s going to cause a big dent in prices. 

I’m not sure what the bottom is for the fetchlands, but I feel VERY confident in telling you to get ready to buy. Forgotten Realms has a release date of July 23, and that’s probably about maximum supply on this set. I suspect most fetches will have fallen a little farther, especially as people try to recoup their $350 by getting what they can as quick as they can. Tarn from this set is available under $50 right now, which looks tempting, but if they can fall to that price, then $40 is an option too. Keep an eye on the new TCG feature showing you the most recent sales, that’s a very useful tool for something like this.

Note that Mesa is currently flirting with $25, and I’m pretty comfortable letting a few of those into my wallet at that price. If nothing else, fetchlands are gold when trading with other people, if that’s something you’re comfortable doing. I respect patience as a plan, but price memory alone is going to keep any fetchland from going under $20. It took being in Khans, and then in a widely sold Clash Pack, as well as being the least-played fetchland, for Windswept Heath to go under $15.

Garth One-Eye (Down to $4 and still falling) – It’s rough to be a mythic in some of these sets, and while what Garth does is pretty cool and potentially powerful, he’s a nostalgic meme. As a five-color legend, he’s quite generic in his skillset and he can never ever get better. Kenrith is a much better choice as your generic 5c Commander because if you had a ton of mana, you could play him, and then use abilities. Garth will have to wait. Poor Garth will be bulk in a month. Stay away until then (and then feel free to pick up a brick of bulk-price mythics).

Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer (up to $70 after being down to $55 after being a preorder for $80) – This monkey is leading us all on a merry chase up and down the rankings and the price tables. There’s a whole lot of cool things to be done with Ragavan, and while my impulse is to offer the path of patience, we’ve seen the drop and then the recovery so far. Because of what he offers, Ragavan shows up as a four-of and no one messes around with shaving their one-drops. There’s a variety of decks wanting to use this card, from Delver-style ‘play a one-drop and ride it all the way’ to multicolor aggro builds seeking to abuse Mox Amber. The price dropped early, as expected, but there’s a whole lot of people buying this up for its uses, and probably not Commander players either.

History tells us that this price has to go back down in the next few weeks, but the great unknown is how many packs are getting cracked outside of the big distributors and Collector Boosters. If stores were all open and regular copies were flowing, I’d say this would drop to $40, even as the most popular mythic. There’s too much retail value in this set for it to stay where it is, frankly. If you’ve got an $80 mythic, and a whole bunch of $30 rares, that just will not stay the case. 

There is an event this weekend in Florida, the TCG Con, and that’s the first big in-person event I know about. It’s got a $1000 Modern tournament, but that’s not enough to keep these prices high. I expect Ragavan to come back down to $50, I just can’t say for sure how long that will take.

Dragon’s Rage Channeler (up to $5, foils at $9) – This is an uncommon, and has no special frame, so there’s just two versions to discuss. It’s both better and worse than Delver of Secrets, but the big game for this card is in the first line of text, giving you control over the top of your library every time you cast a noncreature spell. It’s already adopted by assorted UR lists, and I expect this to be in the discussion for Burn decks eventually. Is this Delirium ability better than Prowess, and if not, does the Surveil 1 make up for the loss? As an uncommon, there’s a lot out there, and for the moment, you should sell these as fast as you can. Long-term, I’m likely to move in on foils, since you get two foil uncommons per Collector Booster, but for the moment you should be selling.

Urza’s Saga (Down to $30 from a high of $60) – A really wide variety of decks are trying this out, and it’s going to be popular in Commander for a while too. That’s a formula for success, long-term. The question is, will you be able to get this for $25 or less before the price climbs back up? Banning the card is also in the discussion, considering the impressively broken things it can do. Seeing a list of decks, from Jund to Whir Control to Hammer Time and even Lantern Control…there’s a lot going on with this card. 

I’m going to step out on a limb and say that this won’t get banned before the end of this year, and that $25 will be the floor. Being useful in a lot of different decks is good but not necessarily broken. I think it will get banned in Modern when some other incredible combo piece gets printed, but that hasn’t happened yet and people haven’t abused the card too terribly as yet.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.