So the set is out on Arena and MTGO, and won’t be available on paper for another week. If you preordered, it’ll ship out on February 5, when the set is officially released in paper. We’ve still got a little time for prices to go nuts, but we’ve also got some preliminary data on what’s selling and what isn’t. Let’s take a look, shall we?

Reflections of Littjara (Currently $3) – First of all, this is available as an alt-art foil promo for those who purchase the Kaldheim bundle. I am very likely to take a stab at picking up a lot of those versions, as well as some number of regulars and FEA versions. This is an excellent payoff for tribal decks of just about any flavor, and the only problem here is that Legendary creatures are not always great to make copies of, depending on the enters-the-battlefield effects. This has trended down from a high of about $5 so far, and I completely expect it to approach bulk status. It’s not going to do much in Standard, and buying large amounts of awesome Commander cards is exactly where I want to be.

Cosmos Elixir ($4) – What’s notable about this is that it isn’t legendary. If you wanted to build a control deck and put three copies into play, you’d get three triggers. Lifegain is a popular theme in Commander games, and this does what you want, giving you the lifegain trigger or a card. I expect this to be an easy slot into whatever the next good lifegain Commander is, as Oloro is a bit too old to gain attention this way, even though it’s on The List. To be clear, I’m not buying these until they come way down in price.

The World Tree ($12) – It takes a lot to have a rare land hold a price higher than a booster pack. It’s got to have enormous appeal across several formats, and while I love what this offers to five-color Commander players, that’s pretty much it in terms of the potential market. The activated ability means that you can’t add this as free fixing in anything less than fully prismatic decks. As a counterpoint, EDHREC has more than 30,000 five-color decks in its database, and this is remarkably easy to slot into such a deck and feel pretty good. Still, this won’t hold $12 and will be lucky to hold $5. 

Esika, God of the Tree ($14) – Another card that’s five colors or bust, the attention is mostly on the flip side, The Prismatic Bridge. Every turn you get the first creature or planeswalker out of your deck, but the extras are sent to the bottom. No Polymorph-style tricks here. This is a mythic, so the price will stay higher for longer. I’m hoping that it gets down to the $5 range as no one plays it outside Commander, but being the new awesome card will probably mean $10 is a more realistic price point.

Mystic Reflection ($13) – There is a graph via Frank Karsten that shows the interaction between this card and Master of Waves. Do keep in mind that this reflects the total power on the field, not the number of creatures. 

Kooky stuff, and yes, it combos very well with a range of token makers, but the memes are not enough to keep the price this high. It’s possible to use this offensively, to turn their cool thing into some lame thing that’s already on the field, but really, wouldn’t you rather have a counterspell or an Ixidron to deal with that problem? This is going to drop like a rock, and if I could short sell a card this is the prime candidate. I have trouble imagining that it’ll hold a price above $3.

Koma, Cosmos Serpent ($8) – Again, this is a mythic so it’s got that many less copies out there, but this is a card that MIGHT be a singleton as a finisher in some Simic deck and that’s about it. There’s not a huge amount of Serpent synergies to exploit, whereas if this was a Hydra it would at least have those decks going. This is going crash hard, being bulk or nearly so in a couple of months.

Tibalt’s Trickery ($7) – Another meme card, but one with potential and it’s showing up with Violent Outburst and Emrakul, the Aeons Torn to work together and get the spaghetti monster on the field on turn 3. Basically, cast the cascade spell, and the only hit is a single Trickery. Then the Trickery starts flipping cards, and the only legal hit is Emrakul. It’s a glass cannon, but so are the new versions of Oops! All Spells and Charbelcher, so let’s not go throwing too many stones. If people want to play instant-win combos in Modern that require aggressive mulliganing and folds to hand disruption or a Censor. This will also be bulk status in a few weeks.

In Search of Greatness ($6) – This is a bad version of cards we already have. Hibernation’s End is the most reliable of these, as you pay the upkeep cost and then get something that size, no matter what you have in play. ISoG requires you to have something on the board, and then have something else exactly one mana more. The fail-case plan of scry 1 is a pretty lame gift, but at least we have that going. This can only ever cheat you ahead to something that you would have been able to play if you had drawn another land, and for this to be good, you’re going to need quite a string of fortunate events. Bulk rare incoming.

Alrund’s Epiphany ($3) – Finally, a card I’m planning to stock up on. Extra turns cards are generally very good, and some decks want to play every single one they can. Part the Waterveil comes with a 6/6 if you get it going, and two 1/1s is also nice for speeding up the process. This has alternate art as a Showcase, and when this is cheap (and it’s going to be quite cheap) I’ll be happy to pick up a couple playsets for very little down. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

There’s a lot to unpack in Kaldheim, in terms of how rare the rarest cards are, and considering Commander Legends just taught us a very Jeweled Lotus lesson, let’s pay attention, yes?

First, some basics. I’m going to be breaking down the special versions of cards, as those offer some of the highest upside possible. We all like to get the prettiest version for our Commander decks, so let’s keep our eyes on the prize.

There are 64 rares you can open in a booster pack, plus five themed rares available in Set Boosters, Theme Boosters, or Collector Boosters. There’s an additional 15 uncommons only in the Set/Theme slot which will merit their own discussion later. Wizards designed these cards to go with different themes but not affect the Limited experience. At least these can be opened in a booster, though it seems they are not available in foil.

There are 20 mythics in the set, and all of them have at least one variant, either Showcase or Extended Art, and no additional ones past that. Two of these mythics have two variants: Vorinclex has a Showcase frame and a Phyrexian frame, while Valki, God of Lies has a Borderless frame and a Showcase frame.

In addition to that, the five mythics with Foretell as a mechanic don’t just have an Extended Art treatment, they have alternate art to go with their Borderless-looking frame. 

It would appear that Draft Boosters and Set Boosters can have both foils and nonfoils of Showcase or Borderless treatments, but no Extended Art at all. If you find a post/article that says different, please clue me in.

In Commander Legends Collector Boosters, there was some variation that led to Foil Extended Art mythics being ridiculously rare. A lot of that variation has been taken away in Kaldheim, which should lead to lower prices on most things. My focus today is on the five CB slots with rares/mythics, because each CB has a pair of slots for Showcase uncommons, one foil and one non-foil. There’s going to be plenty of those, and they will make a delightful spec in a couple months.

So, in those last five slots, we have the cards that we care the most about. Please keep in mind that these numbers are statistics, these are predictions. Some people will have better luck and some will have worse luck. Would that we all had the good luck all the time!

A foil rare or mythic in the regular frame. This does include the Sagas from the next slot, giving you a chance of opening a foil Saga here and a nonfoil of the same Saga in the next slot. In this spot we have 64 rares and 20 mythics possible, so that gives us a drop rate of 1/84 for a particular foil rare and 1/168 for a particular foil mythic. Keep in mind that these are the same cards as in Draft Boosters, though that’s a bit balanced out by the lower number of Draft Boosters getting opened in the middle of the pandemic. 

A nonfoil rare saga/theme rare/Commander deck rare or mythic. There are only ten rare Sagas, five theme rares, and 17 Commander rares/mythics available. It seems like the mythic symbol doesn’t matter as much for this, the assorted Wizards releases indicate that they all drop at the same rate in this slot. Plus, all of these are nonfoil. Your odds are 1/32 for one of these, making them relatively common as a side effect of the hunt for more valuable cards.

A card in non-foil Extended Art. This is the slot for everything without a special border, and there’s 36 rares and four mythics that fit this bill. Since rares (until they tell us different) come along at twice the rate of mythics, you have a 1/38 chance of a particular EA rare and a 1/76 chance of a particular mythic EA. Yes, that’s nearly twice the rate of the regular frame foil mythics in these same CBs, offset by the other places you can get those foil regular mythics. 

A nonfoil Showcase/Borderless. For this slot, we have 18 potential rares and 16 potential mythics. So to nail one of these, it’s 1/26 for a specific rare and 1/52 for a specific mythic. This is slightly complicated by the double-up of Vorinclex and Valki. Wizards did the math on having two special versions of Vorinclex and Valki, God of Lies. Their two treatments are combined to drop as often as other mythics. Think of it as a coin flip. You have a certain chance to hit the mythic, but then you are 50/50 on which version you’re going to get, making each version half as common. If you like the real numbers, in this slot, for nonfoil, you have a 1/104 chance of each version of Valki or Vorinclex.

A foil Showcase/EA/Borderless. The big money slot, given that there’s 54 potential rares and 20 potential mythics. The only difference between this slot’s potential and the foil regular-frame rare/mythic slot is that you can’t get a foil Saga here, as there are no special frames for Sagas. Your odds are slightly better here: 1/64 for a specific rare and 1/128 for the specific mythic EA/Showcase/Borderless. The Valki/Vorinclex odds are that much worse, being 1/256 to get the version you want.

Let’s have a tl;dr table, shall we? 

For a particular…	Odds of it being in a CB pack	# of CB Boxes needed to open one
Foil rare in the regular frame	1 in 84	7
Foil mythic in the regular frame	1 in 168	14
Nonfoil Saga or Theme rare or Commander-deck exclusive	1 in 32	2.6
Nonfoil Rare in Extended Art	1 in 38	3.2
Nonfoil Mythic in Extended Art	1 in 76	6.3
Nonfoil Rare in Showcase or Borderless	1 in 26	2.2
Nonfoil Mythic in Showcase or Borderless	1 in 52	4.3
Foil Rare in EA or Showcase or Borderless	1 in 64	5.3
Foil Mythic in EA or showcase or Borderless	1 in 128	10.6
Foil Phyrexian Vorinclex, Monstrous Raider	1 in 256	21.3

The good news is that Vorinclex and Valki are among the priciest cards from the set right now, so hitting either version is profitable, for now. Jeweled Lotus is the comparison people want to make, but that was significantly rarer, needing 400 packs to get there. 

We shouldn’t see the huge prices out of the gate in Kaldheim that we saw in Commander Legends, mainly because of the switch from the 30% chance of foil upgrade to the slot dedicated to foils. That 30% chance wasn’t there in other Collector Boosters, and represents quite a shift. It’s very likely that the shift in CL caused much more of a selling frenzy than would have otherwise happened. We will see if having a single, mega-chase version of a card (the Phyrexian Vorinclex) has a similar effect on prices. 

One more item that I’ve encountered that may end up being super relevant: The uncommons from the Set/Theme Booster exclusives are ONLY in those specialized boosters. The entire list can be found here, but the rares can show up in Collector Boosters while the uncommons are trapped. They are Standard-legal, so there’s a scenario where in eight months, a new interaction occurs and some price gets out of hand.

Finally, if you’ve found an error in my math, please reach out to me in the comments here, on the Discord, or on Twitter. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

People, I can’t say it enough: Don’t preorder new cards. 

This may seem counterintuitive to you. After all, new Magic sets are chock full of new interactions, sweet characters, and mechanics begging to be exploited with old cards. 

Please, please, please. I’m begging you. Resist the urge to buy things right away. It’s terrible value and you should only do it if you play enough in person to make it worthwhile. 

Maybe you don’t want to believe my experience. That’s okay. I’ve got the receipts. 

It’s been a long-standing phenomenon in Magic that when a set comes out, it’s at its most expensive. You can get into the economic principles if you’re so inclined, but that’s not my area of expertise. I’ve simply been around enough new sets to know that things are almost never worth buying right away, except in the case of the most format-defining cards, or the biggest cross-format stars. 

Before you buy that new card, understand that for 99% of the cards, you should wait two weeks, at minimum. Let’s take some quick examples from early in Zendikar Rising:

Ancient Greenwarden has some delightful Commander synergies and is probably worth a look at buying, given that supply is at max right now. Preorders were all above $20, some as high as $25. 

Forsaken Monument is a card I like right now, especially in FEA around $13, but the regular versions were going for $17 at the start of the set, a full $10 higher than they are now.

Let’s take a trip back farther, to Throne of Eldraine. How about a low-circulation card, only available in a Commander deck, which might run out? 

Nope, dropped like a rock. How about a regular mythic, The Royal Scions?

Ouch.

Now, on a long enough timeline, some of these can look solid. For instance, from early 2018, here’s the graph for Bramble Sovereign:

It was preordering in the $15-$17 range, so you had a chance to preorder at that price, wait 18 months, sell at $22, and make $2. Nothing to trumpet, but hey, profit is profit.

One thing I want to make clear: I’m talking about the preorder prices for the regular frame, nonfoil versions of cards. Stores generally aren’t preselling the premium versions of cards, because it’s difficult to know what you’ll get in the boxes you open, especially during a pandemic. The presence of special frames and foils will generally drive down the price of the nonfoil regulars, as the collectors with more to spend will go after those versions and leave the more basic ones behind. 

In Kaldheim, we have some pretty bad offenders, and hopefully, you’re not thinking about buying these until the dust settles.

Koma, Cosmos Serpent ($8) – I freely admit that this is a limited bomb, requiring an answer before that first upkeep trigger. It’s got some potential in Commander, but in the best Commander colors, it’s got some big competition. It’s going to drop, by at least half. If you have to have it right away, recognize the extra that you’re paying.

Esika, God of the Tree // The Prismatic Bridge ($10) – I love this card and I can’t wait to add it to my Ur-Dragon deck. The problem is, I’m going to need precisely one copy. Its color identity means that it’s five colors or bust, and that’s a niche market indeed. I can absolutely see a world where the foil showcase of this goes for $25+ and the regular nonfoil is under $4. Please don’t overspend on this when you don’t have to.

The World Tree ($7) – It takes a lot for a land to hold a price above $4 as a rare. It needs to be popular in more than one format, it needs to be useful, and pop up all over the place. Just like Esika, this is five-colors only, and yes, it’s a very sweet land for those decks. It’s not going to see any Standard play, and it’s got a big price drop coming. Please be patient.

Tibalt’s Trickery ($8) – This seems bad to me. Yes, it’s a red counterspell, but they are going to get something after all. Chaos Warp has a 33% chance (or so, most decks are around a third lands) to just whiff and give the controller a land to replace what you shuffled into the deck, but Tibalt’s Trickery guarantees a spell. I imagine this will see more play than it should, but price-wise, this is going to fall like a rock and you definitely don’t want to be an early adopter here. Wait till it’s a $1 card.

Valki, God of Lies // Tibalt, Cosmic Impostor ($19) – This seems absurdly high, even for a mythic that switches between being good early or good late. Yes, if you cascade into this card off of something like Shardless Agent you can choose to cast the backside, a decently-powered seven drop of a planeswalker, but that’s a pretty niche application. I think this card has potential, just not $20 a copy potential. More like $10, or $7.

Eradicator Valkyrie ($6) – Is this a decent card? Yes. It’s got good stats and an ability that can be relevant, but isn’t Rankle, Master of Pranks just better in every way? Lifelink is good, but this is destined to be outclassed for a long time. I think this falls a long way, approaching bulk mythic status.

There are some cards in this set that I think are fantastic, and I can’t wait to buy up some cheap stacks of cards in six weeks or so, but please, save yourself the money and don’t preorder anything.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

I know, I know, it’s a reductive title, but it’s accurate.

We are at max supply of Zendikar Rising, all the attention is on the Kaldheim previews that we’re getting, and all I want to do is buy lots and lots of ZNR cards. Let’s look at some of the tastiest options, where we’ll get in and where I’m hoping to get out.

Bala Ged Recovery ($2 regular/$4 foil) – There is no alternate frame available here, but in a different era this would be a slam dunk for an FNM promo. Yes, it’s a $2 uncommon when the set is at its maximum, but it’s already in a TON of Commander decks and this is exactly the sort of card you want as a double-faced land. Early on, you just want the land. Later on, it’s a cheap regrowth and you’ll likely play the card you just got back. It’s not super simple to reprint a foil double-faced card, and there hasn’t been a double-faced card in The List yet or a Secret Lair thereof. It’s possible that a Commander deck will have one random double-faced card, but that’s pretty unlikely. These look relatively safe from reprints and should start a steady growth, especially in foils. I won’t be shocked when the foils double up in a year.

Feed the Swarm ($1/$2) – Same principle applies, although this is notable for being targeted enchantment removal in black, which hasn’t really gotten this effect before. It’s not a great removal spell for creatures, but it’s got a lot of power due to the unique nature of the removal for enchantments. It’s already been put into more than 5,000 decks online, which is an amazingly fast adoption rate, just behind Bala Ged Recovery. The buy-in is low here too, as there isn’t a special frame to chase, just plain old foils.

The Pathways – I’m ambivalent on these. I think they are good, but they aren’t really staples the way that the Triomes are. Not fetchable, and not even as good as buddy lands or Temples. The adoption rate has not been low, but this is just going to be slotted in a whole bunch when you have them. The extended arts look good, I just don’t see a huge growth market because while they are flexible when you play them, you’re locked in. 

Scute Swarm ($2/$2/$3 showcase/$4 showcase foil) – It’s already in nearly 5,000 EDH decks online, and while I don’t relish the idea of keeping track of something like this, it does grow at a geometric rate. Heaven knows there’s enough ways to make this go nuts in Commander games, and if you’re really feeling spicy, mutate something onto it first. This card is a challenge, and something that can already break Magic in its online incarnations. Players dearly love saying “How crazy can I go with something like this?” and that tends to lead to profits. 

Felidar Retreat ($1.50/$1.50/$1.25/$3) – This has been added to decks more slowly, as it’s not in the mega-ramp color that green is, but it’s still an amazing card if you can trigger it regularly. I think it’s being added to +1/+1 counter decks more than token decks, but it does straddle those two worlds admirably. 

Ancient Greenwarden ($14/$16/$18/$24) – I do love mythics at their lowest price points, and especially ones that enable all sorts of shenanigans. We’ve got crossover between the ‘play lands from the yard’ decks like Gitrog Monster that can power out value engine after value engine, cross-referenced with the doubling up of anything that triggers off of lands. Best friends for the Greenwarden include Polluted Bonds (already a big spike on that card though), Field of the Dead, and of course, Tatyova, Benthic Druid.

Thieving Skydiver ($1.25/$1.25/$3/$8) – It’s hard for this to go wrong. It’s been added to a lot of decks online and it does something we all love doing: stealing from other players. Your ramp is now my ramp, thanks so much! There are a lot of decks with comes-into-play abilities that are worth copying, but this one needs to be returned to hand to be used again. Erratic Portal should be the first thing you steal, but play it with Crystal Shard as well.

Malakir Rebirth ($0.50/$1.50) – It’s not as immediately popular as some of the other DFCs from this set, but this is a freebie. Most Commander games, you’ve got a creature that you want to keep in play, and this is one mana to save it from 97% of removal spells. No one would add just the spell to their EDH deck, though, but having this as a land when you need it makes it good enough. I especially like a low buy-in here, though it’ll require you to be a bit more patient on growth. An excellent target for buying in larger numbers, and then buylisting the whole stack.

Glasspool Mimic ($2.50/$3/$4/$6) – Clones are often awesome in Commander, but this one does have the drawback of only copying your stuff. Still, it’s a very cheap Clone at three mana, and it’s a land! I’m in the camp of ‘up your land count to 45+ in Commander’ using these rather than using them as an excuse to shave lands, but you do you. This is also used in a lot of Modern, Pioneer, and Standard decks online, and has the bonus of not rotating out of Standard until October of 2022, hopefully meaning that people will get to play with it in person again.

All five mythic MDFCs – I’ve written before about my love for these, and you should, at the very least, get the ones you’ll play in your own Commander decks. I’ve got Agadeem’s Awakening in every black deck of mine, at the least, and I’m equally big on Turntimber Symbiosis. I think you treat these as spells, and treat the land side as a bonus. Regardless of which version you like, they are all at their lowest price and are worth picking up. 

Lithoform Engine ($10/$11/$14/$20) – Finally, a shoutout to a card that does it all. Copying spells is already awesome, but this offers a real ‘I can do it all!’ feeling. It pays for itself pretty quickly, copying the cool things you’re doing. It’s not in a huge number of decks yet, but being colorless it’s able to be put into any deck. Its popularity in Commander is reflected in the price: there’s not paper play going on, all price movement is EDH-based right now. This is the #3 mythic in ZNR based on price, and you should get your copies while they are cheap.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.