Category Archives: Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – SCG Baltimore Analysis

If you haven’t watched all of the Magic on Shadows over Innistrad weekend and don’t want to be spoiled go watch it now and stop reading!

Spoiler warnings aside, congrats to fellow New York Rangers aficionado Jim Davis for his win with Bant Company.  If you played a Rally deck before the rotation this one is pretty similar make up (largely a backbone of Jace / Collected Company deck) so a switch would be easy.

Archangels and Lieutenants

Let’s take a look at the decklists from the Open and see what  information we can glean about the future:

craig wescoe

Thanks Craig!  Yes, half of the Top 8 of this event was some version of a white Humans Aggro deck.  Nine of the top 32 decks were a flavor of Humans Aggro deck.  Some decks stayed to the tried and true mono-white while others splashed blue or green for some exceptional main deck humans and additional sideboard flexibility.  What all of the decks have in commons is this base:

thaliaslieutenantknight of the white orchidalways watching

White-based human decks are likely to become a mainstay for people who really like to put on the beatdown.  That being said, I think the current price of $2-3 for these rares is unsustainable for a deck that was 29% of the top 32 meta game.  I expect these cards to creep up slowly because they’re not very flashy.  However, if a humans deck does get a win they will probably spike.

Goggles in the Ice

If you watched the Open you get to see StarCity Games’ writers a lot if they’re doing well.  Well, Todd Anderson was doing pretty well this weekend with this monstrosity of a deck.

thingintheice

Thing in the Ice was definitely a very important part of this deck as it let Todd go from defense to offense very quickly and close out a game almost immediately.  That being said, it’s price is still very confusing. The diverging buylist price and average sell price have me concerned that the player demand is not actually there.  I am still of the opinion you should sell these cards until we can see if it does anything in Modern and Legacy.  From the results this past weekend it doesn’t look anyone is trying it besides the “fun of.”

PyromancersGoggles

The price on these have already gone crazy (TCG low is $10 as of Sunday, up from about $2 on Friday) so I wouldn’t buy them until it all settles down.  I tried to play a Pyromancer’s Goggles deck a while back but it always ends up being frustrating when you draw the wrong half of your deck.  Lightning Axe might be the removal spell it needs to make Goggles consistent enough to play but I don’t think this card can really carry a $10 price tag for long.  I’m a seller.

fallofthetitans

Boom flavor, right?  This was played in Todd’s deck and is still a bulk rare.  If you’re really intent on playing the deck I can’t imagine these being cut.  It uses all of your extra mana and works great when forked with the goggles.  This is the kind of card I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets played in larger quantities later and goes up to a few bucks.  Right now you can buy in for a quarter (and worst case scenario sell it back for a dime) so there is little downside to picking up a personal playset.

avacyn

White is really good

Roughly 85% of the top 32 deck lists at SCG Baltimore played basic Plains.  Of the five decks that didn’t, only one was in the Top 8, and only one more in the Top 16.  Turns out all of the white spells are really good right now.  Declaration in Stone, Archangel Avacyn, Archangel of Tithes, and Gideon, Ally of Zendikar showed up in multiple different types of decks this weekend.

declarationinstone

Declaration in Stone showed up as a 4-of in the 75 of six of seven Top 8 decks it could be played in.  The seventh deck was Jim Davis’s which only played a paltry two.  It’s clear this is a real show stopper for a lot of decks and allows the rag tag human army get past anything with ease.  I’m going to say this is going to end up a lot like Hero’s Downfall.  It has the potential to hit $15-18 for a week or two and then fall down to a more reasonable number once MTGO redemption starts.

archangel avacyn

This card has a real chance to be another Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy.  I’m not sure yet if it can keep climbing (it’s already $30 on the cheapest places on the internet).  There wasn’t the full four copies in every white deck because some of them played 22 lands and having consistent 5-drops is overly optimistic.  The casual angel appeal will also keep this card high so I’d expect it to follow Declaration in Stone’s trajectory and become cheaper once MTGO redemption starts.  Right now I’m selling my extra copies to lock in profit.

Tokens

westvale abbeySecure the Wastes

Westvale Abbey was definitely really good in the decks it was good in.  That sounds pretty obvious but Dragonlord Ojutai was really only mediocre in the decks it was good in.  Token decks that can dedicate whole turns to flipping the Abbey will be a real factor in Standard.  Their ability to chump humans until they can assemble a 9/7 haste lifelink to catch them up is huge.  Going forward this style deck might morph into a more all-in version with Cryptolith but time will tell.  I think this deck will be most affected by testing and tuning done at the Pro Tour.  All that information aside,  I’m super not interested in hanging onto Abbeys or Secure the Wastes with their current price tag.

 

Final Thoughts

  • Ancestral Vision probably won’t be as good as people want it to be.  I didn’t see very many in the Top 8 of the last Modern Classic
  • If we are going to see great innovation in Modern I would keep a close look at GP LA/Charlotte weekend.  We will see big movers then.
  • Shadows over Innistrad EV is very high right now. I’d sell everything you are not actively playing with while you still can.
  • If you want to meet up I will be making the tournament grind the entire month of May, hitting up GP NYC, SCG Indy, GP LA, and probably GP Minneapolis in an effort to secure two byes for the next year of Magic

Grinder Finance – Shadows over Standard

So I’ve got a pretty important tournament coming up at the release of Shadows over Innistrad so I’ll let you know what financially relevant information I’ve gathered from decks I’ve been seeing.

White-Blue Humans

Here‘s a rough idea of what this deck might look like.  It’s still very rough (like many of these deck lists) but we can glean some of the more powerful cards from it.

always watching

Always Watching is soon to become a lynch pin in a very aggressive day 1 deck.  They are easily found right now for a buck or two and can see a big camera spike this weekend if they get a lot of camera time at SCG Baltimore.

thaliaslieutenant

Thalia’s Lieutenant looks pretty mediocre at best but there are a large number of aggressive 1 mana humans that can lead the stampede.  I recommend grabbing a few if this kind of deck is your jam.

dragonlordojutaiArchangel of Tithes

These mythic rare white creatures might finally see their last big hurrah.  Both creatures benefit greatly from the vigilance granted by Always Watching and have already seen an uptick in price the last few weeks.  I would dig out any extra copies you may have and not want to play with.  Pro Tour weekend could be big for these two mythics before they start their final descent.

declarationinstone

“But it’s not Path to Exile!” is what most people say looking at this card.  But in Standard it will be pretty close to Path to Exile.  I am expecting to see people quickly increase the number of these they want to play in their decks until they can’t play any more.  At $3-4 I’m not thrilled buying them but they’re a very important piece of the human deck.

spirit_awakening_riley2

Cryptolith Rite by Zack Stella
Cryptolith Rite by Zack Stella

G/X Cryptolith

The original version of this deck has already spawned many offshoots but remains here.  The gist of the deck is to play many small creatures and some that produce tokens(like Hangarback Walker and Scion Summoner) to funnel mana into Cryptolith Rite to cast some big spells or use Evolutionary Leap.

Cryptolith Rite has already seen a spike as more people caught onto its power on Reddit.  It started as a G/B deck to fuel Ulamog and Zendikar Resurgent but people have been testing it to ramp out Dragonlord Atarka as well.  I’d say there is “something there” but it might take a few weeks for people to find the most optimal way to use this card.  I don’t like holding my copies mostly because I think this card gets drastically worse once Hangarback Walker rotates in October.

westvale abbeywestvale abbey b

Westvale Abbey was first on everyone’s radar in this deck.  It was a very reasonable way to turn a bunch of thopters or scions into a formidable 9/7 flying, lifelink, haste, indestructible creature.  That has driven the price of this sky high as people realize you can just play it in anything really.  It’s great with Secure the Wastes and does a decent Vitu-Ghazi, the City-Tree impression.  I think the price point looking a few months out will likely be around $10-12 if it puts up results.  If not, it will likely fall to the $4-5 range quickly.

ob nixilis reignited art

White-Black Control

This will likely be a player in some form in the near future.  It has the most options to stop the most varied threats.  You can find a decklist and some play testing by Michael Majors here.

soringrimnemesis

Sorin is very good on a clear board.  He doesn’t usually kill quite as fast as Chandra, Flamecaller but he will allow you to play a very grindy game that White-Black Control is definitely well equipped to fight.  Going up to 7 loyalty means Chandra cannot immediately kill him without help.   I don’t forsee him finding Elspeth, Sun’s Champion or even Chandra, Flamecaller levels of play so his $20 price tag right now seems unsustainable.  He may see a quick peak during Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad weekend but I’m not in any rush to buy in here.  If you don’t play Standard you can likely pick him up in late August or early September for $6-10.

obnixilisreignited2 (1)

Ob Nixilis is the king of Standard 5 mana planeswalkers right now (I feel).  His buylist price has seen about a 25% jump in the past month but some retailers have been slow to follow suit.  As you can see here the spread among vendors is still pretty big.  At the time of writing (Sunday night), the highest buy price (Channel Fireball) is 60% of the lowest sell price (Strike Zone online).  In fact, Strike Zone is currently cheaper than all but 1 of the listings on TCGPlayer.  All of this points to Ob Nixilis likely being on the move soon.  I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if he jumps to $15 for a month.

languish

Languish was relegated to the side lines in the face of the Siege Rhino menace.  As Siege Rhino’s last farewell it will drag Languish back into the fold.  It being a turn faster than Crux of Fate and being able to kill larger creatures than Flaying Tendrils means it will likely become the sweeper of choice.  With B/W control intentionally being light on creatures it would make sense to support this.  On a related note, Languish is not able to be stopped by Archangel Avacyn.

Archangel Avacyn

Speaking of Avacyn…. It’s odd to see Majors not playing any copies in his 75.  Avacyn can quickly close out games and often can be masked with an activation of a land (like Shambling Vent or Blighted Fen) or just an instant speed removal spell.  This card has doubled since it’s debut pre-order price ($15).  At $30 I’m pretty happy selling her and re-purchasing them in June.  I’m expecting her to hold a reasonably high price due to being a legendary angel and a flip mythic.  I don’t think it’s unreasonable for her to maintain $10-15 price tag in June.

This weekend we will get the first taste of Shadows over Innistrad and the day before my article comes out we should get the Modern ban list shake up.  Hopefully we’re in for a great weekend of Magic and we can talk about it next week!

Grinder Finance – Being Goal Oriented

This article is going to sound a little more like an MTG Lifestyle article and not so much an MTG Finance article.  Truth be told, there’s not a whole lot to write about until Shadows over Innistrad is released to the wild and we start getting tournament results.

regionalptq_promo_2016

What do you want to do in Magic?

No, seriously.  What are your goals? How do you enjoy Magic?  The first step to figuring out how to approach Magic (or anything in life really) is to take a step back and analyze why you are doing what you’re doing.  Some people might say “I want to play FNM competitively every Friday.”  Others might have more lofty goals like “I want to play on the Pro Tour” or “I want to travel and play in Grands Prix.”  It’s best to support these larger overarching goals with smaller more manageable goals to keep track of your progress.  You could have some smaller financial goals that will help you support this such as “I want to own an Affinity deck for Modern.”

arcboundravager

Breaking down a goal

Since I’m supposed to write about financial goals, I’ll take the “I want to own Affinity” and explain how I would suggest breaking it down.  Eventually you can get to the micro level of “I want to own 4 Arcbound Ravagers” and that’s probably the best place to start.  The next thing to do is impose some rules on how you will achieve this goal (assuming there aren’t already rules.)  If it’s as easy as going to the store and buying 4 Arcbound Ravagers then you probably didn’t need that as a goal.  There wasn’t any work involved in achieving it.  It could be as simple as “I want to trade for 4 Arcbound Ravagers” or “I want 4 foil Arcbound Ravagers.”  But give yourself something to work toward that you can measure your success with.  It feels lot better.

Good MTG Finance Goals

Scalding-Tarn-Expeditions-Battle-for-Zendikar-MtG-Art

If you want to build a deck the best thing to start with is buying local.  Get involved on your local MTG Facebook groups.  Talk to people at your shops and become friends with as many people as possible.  Whenever possible you want to  buy and sell locally.  It removes the extra cost to shipping, fees, and buylists.  Obviously it’s more work but a good network is worth a lot more as you put the work in.  Often you can find people who would have just sold to a local buylist and you can offer them more to buy it from them.  As an example, I bought most of the expeditions for my Modern deck from local players.  I offered them slightly under TCG Low and slightly over local buylist prices so everyone left the table happy.

The next thing is to figure out when you “need” the card and buy it when it is probably at it’s cheapest.  I have good news here.  For 99% of cards there is no guessing as to when it will be the cheapest.  One major and easy to predict factor influences almost all cards.  Time!  If you are eyeing some new standard cards and don’t need them on release day, your best time to buy is around rotation.  Standard cards typically drop from their pre-ordering prices to their near time low the week before spoilers for the next block start (for example, Shadows over Innistrad cards will be the cheapest for Standard players in late August or early September).

Six Months before a card is expected to rotate it begins to decline.  This coincides with the Pro Tour of the second block to be released since it’s release.  For Shadows over Innistrad, this will be the spring Pro Tour of 2017.  If you’re not sure what to do with your Magic Origins and Dragons of Tarkir cards, the best time to look to sell is the weekend after the Shadows over Innistrad Pro Tour.  If you’re having a hard time knowing when to buy or sell a card, put a reminder in Google Calendar or in your phone to remind you.

spirit_awakening_riley2

The last thing that I don’t think enough people do at their LGS is take prize support in store credit when you can.  While it can be tempting to bust those 15 or so packs you might have won during FNM, it would put you a lot closer to your long term goals to just ask if you can receive an equivalent in store credit.  Long term, your store credit should have the same amount of value and requires a lot less upkeep if you’re trying to save for specific cards to finish your decks.  When you look at booster packs as lottery tickets, it’s a lot less enticing to take your prize support in them.  Basically if you’re offered $50 in lottery tickets or $35 in cash, which would you take?

That’s all I got for you guys this week.  May your pre-releases be filled with many triple rare packs and tons of mythics!

Grinder Finance – The Shadows over Innistrad Preorder Article

Hey guys, I’m a little this late this week as I was waiting for the maximum number of cards to be spoiled before putting out this article.  Spoilers for Shadows over Innistrad will end Friday so it is unlikely much will change between then and now.

With every set, the pre-order prices for most cards are astronomically higher than they end up.  There are some exceptions to that rule (I’m looking at you Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy) but the best bet is usually to buy the least amount possible.

Lands

porttown

I’m sure by now you’ve all seen the rare land cycle.  I think the pre-order prices for these are a little too high to recommend buying them all but I couldn’t fault you for getting the ones you think you are likely to play for the first month.  These should be $2-3 by this summer and then you can finish up your playsets.

Upgrading Old Strategies

cardart_OGW_World-Breaker

Bought into the Eldrazi ramp deck recently? Here are my recommendations for pre-orders:

deathcapcultivator

Deathcap Cultivator easily slots into the same spot as Rattleclaw Mystic and supports a black splash instead of a red one.  That might be the best going forward anyway since Kozilek’s Return doesn’t kill a lot of the new vampires or many older creatures.

drownyardtemple

Drownyard Temple has a great synergy with World Breaker but I wouldn’t recommend getting a whole play set.  One or two is probably all the deck can support anyway without cutting into Shrine of the Forsaken Gods or Sanctum of Ugin

tirelesstracker.

With the additional ETB tapped lands, I expect ramp will find some mana earlier to use on Tireless Tracker.  It’s obviously a huge favorite to be a huge monster if you play a ton of lands.  It will help with some of the problems of flooding and isn’t legendary like Nissa, Vastwood Seer.  While this card might not be a slam dunk, the pre-order price of $2 or less is not much to lose.

traversetheulvenwald

Stay away from this card.  A lot of people are hypothesizing it’s synergy with Ruin in their Wake but the reality is this will often be much worse than Oath of Nissa.  At $4 most places, I don’t want to buy into what is likely to be a bulk rare.

spirit_awakening_riley2

Collected Company more your jam?  It’s likely that a Green/White based deck will be the bread and butter CoCo deck.  There are unfortunately not a ton of great cards to add to those style decks but there are a few that could make the cut.

declarationinstone

Collected Company decks are almost always light on removal (the nature of a green/white deck).  Declaration in Stone gives you some more flexibility in removing troublesome creatures cleanly and doesn’t require a bigger creature, like Dromoka’s Command does.

Untitled

Naturally, Hanweir Militia Captain’s flip trigger works well in a CoCo deck.  Putting 2 Hanweir Militia Captains into play during your opponent’s end step could spell big game.  This one is purely speculative as the next creature.

bygonebishop

A deck with a ton of 3 or less drop creatures could be in the market for a reasonably costed flyer to draw some cards.  This one unfortunately matches up pretty poorly against Drana, Liberator of Malakir and Olivia, Mobilized for War so we will have to see how the meta game shakes down.  If we see a ton of Eldrazi Skyspawners and Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet (which makes Deathmist Raptor worse) maybe this guy gets the nod.

http---magic.wizards.com-sites-mtg-files-images-wallpaper-Oath-of-Chandra_OGW_1920x1080_Wallpaper

For the mono-red Eldrazi deck I only have 1 recommendation.

goldnightcastigator

I know it looks like a pile of garbage but the truth is this will be a very important sideboard card against “slower” decks.  Its great against Ramp and it will probably be great against Esper Dragons (or similarly controlling decks).  The worst case scenario is this is a Skizzik (or Ball Lightning, if you prefer that) that can throw off your opponent’s math.  Most of it’s text box is largely irrelevant if you kill them with it.

New Archtypes:

Some cards look deceptively powerful on paper but don’t realize any competitive play.  For the most part, anything over $15 pre-order price is too high to pay unless you are sure it will be good.  Here’s my shortlist of things I have (or would recommend) pre-ordering.

oliviamobilizedforwar

She’s cheap, she’s got reasonable stats, and she turns every spell you play for the rest of the game into an insane return.  Olivia’s ability to curb your flooding while still putting pressure means it won’t be hard for her to find a home.  I’m fine with pre-ordering these up to $15 if you are going to play them.

Archangel Avacyn / Avacyn, the Purifier

This is the best Serra Angel ever printed.  Glowing endorsement, right?  Well if you played with Restoration Angel during the first Innistrad block, you would know how powerful large flash flyers are.  Avacyn is really big, at a great rate, and doesn’t need much help to be effective.  She is largely immune to Reflector Mage.  Combined with Ojutai’s Command, Avacyn delivers the same lose/lose situation as Cryptic Command and Mistbind Clique did.  This is a card I’m not worried that we won’t find a deck for.

So Arlinn is definitely very good on paper.  Probably the best planeswalker in the set.  But I don’t think she will find a home.  Be on the lookout for when she drops.  I can’t imagine she stays anywhere over $20 in a month.

Traps

Don’t buy these cards.  They’re too hyped and probably won’t be good enough to maintain their price tag for more than a month.

Untitled

Jacesoringrimnemesissinproddernahiritheharbinger

All of the Planeswalkers have the Planeswalker tax.  Anguished Unmaking is fine but it’s also the Game Day promo and I’m not sure it can be played as a 4-of like Hero’s Downfall. Sin Prodder is a glorified Boggart Brute.  It’s “fine” but on average it will draw you less cards than Abbot of Keral Keep.  Thing in the Ice is purely an eternal card and as such will drop like a rock.  It’s unlikely to see too much play in a Standard format that has Ultimate Price, Grasp of Darkness, Silk Wrap, and Reflector Mage.