By: Jared Yost

Based on the work I’ve done previously for Khans of Tarkir (which you’ll want to read if you have no idea what I’m talking about when I mention spread), let’s take a look at the spread on Fate Reforged singles to see if we can tell where prices are going in the future.

Comparing Retail to Buylist

Let’s take a look at the Top 25 cards by retail price from Fate Reforged.

CARD NAME	FAIR TRADE PRICE	BEST BUYLIST PRICE	SPREAD
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon	$32.22	$23.50	27.06%
Monastery Mentor	$19.80	$11.01	44.39%
Soulfire Grand Master	$14.46	$9.70	32.92%
Whisperwood Elemental	$13.40	$8.00	40.30%
Shaman of the Great Hunt	$7.23	$4.00	44.67%
Tasigur, the Golden Fang	$6.99	$4.01	42.63%
Brutal Hordechief	$5.92	$3.01	49.16%
Warden of the First Tree	$5.14	$2.51	51.17%
Crux of Fate	$3.42	$2.15	37.13%
Outpost Siege	$2.86	$1.55	45.80%
Torrent Elemental	$2.78	$1.01	63.67%
Mastery of the Unseen	$2.55	$0.75	70.59%
Valorous Stance	$2.01	$1.25	37.81%
Temporal Trespass	$1.96	$0.95	51.53%
Flamewake Phoenix	$1.92	$0.60	68.75%
Citadel Siege	$1.31	$0.48	63.36%
Frontier Siege	$1.31	$0.31	76.34%
Mardu Strike Leader	$1.31	$0.55	58.02%
Alesha, Who Smiles at Death	$1.03	$0.14	86.41%
Soulflayer	$0.99	$0.13	86.87%
Silumgar, the Drifting Death	$0.96	$0.28	70.83%
Ghastly Conscription	$0.95	$0.21	77.89%
Wild Slash	$0.84	$0.23	72.62%
Monastery Siege	$0.78	$0.10	87.18%
Kolaghan, the Storm’s Fury	$0.77	$0.21	72.73%

One trend that should always be noted is that low spreads do not necessarily correlate with the higher priced fair trade cards. For example, even though Monastery Mentor has the number two retail price in the set at the moment, there are six other cards with lower spreads than the Mentor.

Warden of the First Tree has the highest spread amongst the cards in the top ten retail prices. The reason the spread is higher on Warden is because it only fits into one current archetype, Abzan Aggro, which needs to compete for demand in a field of other Standard deck possibilities. The best out for your extra Wardens is to trade them, since you’re hardly going to get half its retail value if you decide to buylist.

Now that we’ve gotten idea of what the desirable cards from the set are, let’s take a look at the list sorted by lowest to highest spread. This will better tell us which cards should be watched closely for price increases.

CARD NAME	FAIR TRADE PRICE	BEST BUYLIST PRICE	SPREAD
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon	$32.22	$23.50	27.06%
Soulfire Grand Master	$14.46	$9.70	32.92%
Crux of Fate	$3.42	$2.15	37.13%
Valorous Stance	$2.01	$1.25	37.81%
Whisperwood Elemental	$13.40	$8.00	40.30%
Tasigur, the Golden Fang	$6.99	$4.01	42.63%
Monastery Mentor	$19.80	$11.01	44.39%
Shaman of the Great Hunt	$7.23	$4.00	44.67%
Outpost Siege	$2.86	$1.55	45.80%
Brutal Hordechief	$5.92	$3.01	49.16%
Warden of the First Tree	$5.14	$2.51	51.17%
Temporal Trespass	$1.96	$0.95	51.53%
Mardu Strike Leader	$1.31	$0.55	58.02%
Citadel Siege	$1.31	$0.48	63.36%
Torrent Elemental	$2.78	$1.01	63.67%
Flamewake Phoenix	$1.92	$0.60	68.75%
Mastery of the Unseen	$2.55	$0.75	70.59%
Silumgar, the Drifting Death	$0.96	$0.28	70.83%
Wild Slash	$0.84	$0.23	72.62%
Kolaghan, the Storm’s Fury	$0.77	$0.21	72.73%
Frontier Siege	$1.31	$0.31	76.34%
Ghastly Conscription	$0.95	$0.21	77.89%
Alesha, Who Smiles at Death	$1.03	$0.14	86.41%
Soulflayer	$0.99	$0.13	86.87%
Monastery Siege	$0.78	$0.10	87.18%

Ugin’s Spread

The greatest point of discussion that we can draw from this is that Ugin, the Spirit Dragon has the highest retail price, highest buylist price, and lowest spread of any card from Fate Reforged. This highest spot in all three categories tells us some important information about the card. 

First, since he is played in Standard yet only played as one or two copies in any given deck, it means that there is gigantic casual demand for the colorless spirit dragon. No wonder! Being colorless means that he can literally just be jammed into any Commander or casual deck. Got a five color slivers deck? Throw Ugin in. B/R Goblins? Ugin’s good here. Is your Roon deck lacking burn? Ugin’s your man. So even though everybody only needs one or two copies, pretty much every single Magic player out there is picking them up as opposed to cards like Whisperwood Elemental which only a subset of players would need for a deck. 

Second, any card that is below a 30% spread is usually a good indication that it will further increase in price. Am I saying that the most expensive card in Fate Reforged could possibly get more expensive? Yes. There is a very real possibility that Ugin hits $40 or more during his Standard lifetime, just due to the fact that he is a popular casual planeswalker in addition to a huge Standard bomb. 

Last, the foil price is also an interesting area of discussion. Foil Ugins are currently almost $100, with just the amount of play that he is seeing now. That is almost unheard of for a Standard legal card. I’m not sure if foil Ugin will ever come down from the $90 highs, but my gut feeling tells me that there is more room for the foil to grow over time, especially if Ugin finds a home in a Standard deck that plays more than just one or two copies. That might seem farfetched now, however good mana ramp is always right around the corner and even though Nykthos is rotating doesn’t mean that we won’t have a suitable mana ramp replacement in the fall set. 

OK, so all in all what am I saying about Ugin? Essentially, given the demand for Ugin from the casual crowd in addition to his power in Standard, I’m saying that Ugin could be slightly undervalued based on the low spread that I’m seeing from the Fate Reforged top spreads data. Don’t be surprised if you see Ugins going to $40 and beyond next year. If you want an Ugin to play with, now might be the time to pick it up. 

Rest of the Top Ten Spreads 

Soulfire Grand Master is next on the list of lowest spreads, and this is a card that I’ve been highlighting since Fate Reforged has been available. It’s been showing up in Standard pretty consistently even if it might be fairly weak in the early stages of the game. The late game is where this card shines, and if you can stick a Master and cast even one or two spells with it you’re going to come out pretty far ahead. At this point, I’m hard pressed to see Master dropping below $10 retail since the buylist is so high. Similar to Ugin, I think the price here might also be driven by casual demand – after all, lifelink and lifelink spells scream casual to me and fulfill the demand of every casual player that has a lifegain deck. 

Crux of Fate is the best black sweeper in the format for now, however even with low spread I’m not entirely convinced. Its hard to see this card going above $5 since fewer and fewer control decks are seen in Standard these days compared to aggro or midrange. Still, if you need the card for Standard it certainly won’t be going down over the next year based on the data. 

Valorous Stance, an uncommon, has the fourth lowest spread in the set. This is big news for speculators looking to pick up a cheap target. I don’t think you can go wrong with Stance – it is a very playable card in Standard in Modern, it dodged a reprint in the latest event deck, is easily splashable at only one white mana in the cost, and is just an all-around flexible spell. Will this be the next $4-$5 Stoke the Flames? Unlikely, yet I do think there is some room for growth since it is an uncommon from a small set. 

Looking for other speculation targets based on price and low spread, we have Tasigur, the Golden Fang at $7, Shaman of the Great Hunt at $7.20, and Outpost Siege at $2.90.  Of these, Tasigur is the best speculation target for both foils and nonfoils. The best time to pickup your Tasigurs will be during the summer, since Magic Origins and Modern Masters 2015 will drive the spotlight away from him and potentially lower his price a bit more. He is a Standard and Modern powerhouse, and foils will be especially good targets for future gains. 

Trade Bait 

Cards that should be traded rather than buylisted if you’re looking to get rid of extras include Warden of the First Tree, Torrent Elemental, Flamewake Phoenix, and Mastery of the Unseen. These cards are pretty good in the right deck, however have narrow use in Standard which is why their spread is much higher than other cards on the high priced retail list. 

The only card I’m on the fence about (and I guess vendors are on the fence too since the spread is almost 50%) is Brutal Hordechief. Better to play it safe than sorry, so I would recommend holding onto your copies until we know if he will be played in any future Standard decks. Remember, Hellrider was insane in the right Standard environment, and Hordechief could easily follow in his Hellrider’s path if the opportunity presents itself. Not having haste is a huge downside but at least he still creates a trigger for every creature that attacks. Definitely a card to keep a close watch on even though the spread indicates that it might be worse than it actually appears. 

Final Thoughts 

Spread can definitely be one of the more powerful tools for picking undervalued cards because vendors aren’t playing around when it comes to buylist – they’ve also done their homework to set prices where they want them, and if a buylist spread is getting smaller and smaller it usually is only a matter of time before that card’s retail price rises as well. 

This time around, I’m more inclined to think that spreads could more easily shift since this is a smaller set where prices on mythics especially tend to get a little crazy if the card is super hot and in demand from several types of players. What do you guys think? Do the spreads add up or are vendors / players missing something about the higher priced Fate Reforged Cards? Do you see spreads changing pretty drastically depending on the results coming in over the next few months?

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By: Jared Yost

So we’ve got a few new promos on our hands. Historically, Wizards has used judge and World Magic Cup Qualifier (WCMQ) foils to distribute copies of cards that haven’t been printed in foil before or to add more copies of the card to the market because it is a tournament staple and needs to have a price reduction. Hopefully the Exemplar Program works out and distributes the same, if not more, copies of judge foils to the Magic masses. Because we’ve got some reprints on our hands this time that players have been clamoring about.

 For additional insight into the price of judge foils, I recommend you read the piece written by Travis Allen last year when judge foil Force of Will and the others were released. It’s a good introduction to this article and will supplement my own opinions for the crop of new judge foils.

Damnation

Numero Uno on the list of reprints, at least from a casual perspective, players finally got their wish. However, be careful what you wish for. What players really wanted was for their Damnations to be reprinted in a much more widely distributed set – say, Modern Masters 2015 or even a Commander release. Why do I suddenly get the feeling that this no longer will be the case?

For starters, the inclusion of Damnation in Modern Masters 2015 has an almost zero chance of happening. Crazier things have happened, but I would be pretty surprised if Wizards decided to reprint this in MM in addition to including it as judge foil. That’s a ton of Damnations running around and I don’t think Wizards is quite ready yet to make the price of this card nosedive to Wrath of God levels.

When considering Commander, I believe Wizards was remiss about not including it in the C14 Sworn to Darkness deck though I understand their reasoning behind it. Simply put, they didn’t want a True-Name Nemesis situation repeat. The counterargument to this is that Damnation is a not a Legacy staple, and so would be less desired overall than TNN was on its debut simply because it won’t be an auto-include in several Legacy archetypes. I understand this point of view yet I think it severely underestimates the casual demand of this card. Many, many players finally want to get a copy of Damnation that doesn’t cost $45. Based on the value of other cards in the Commander decks, it would have only made the black deck absurdly higher in value than the rest. They could have offset this by printing a higher run of black-only decks but I think Wizards wants to avoid that type of scenario in the future. Thus, we’ve been left with a judge foil compromise. 

The saddest part about this situation is that it won’t reduce the price of Damnation at all. The judge foils will be worth the same as regular copies (maybe a bit more, at least until the hype dies down) so the only bonus players are getting is that now they have a cheaper foil copy they can pick up. 

Now in the not-so-distant future, one year or more from the release date, I could actually see the price of this judge foil Damnation fall to below the price of regular copies without a non-foil reprint. The Exemplar Program could actually wind up distributing more copies of judge foils than were on the market in the past. With an overabundance comes a price drop, and the same would be true for Damnation. If the judge foil falls pretty hard, say to $25 or lower, then I feel that is a pretty good price to get in on a casual staple that will be desired by Commander players. 

Of course, everything I said above becomes completely useless if there is a Modern Masters 2014 or Commander reprint of Damnation this year. If Wizards does decide to bite the bullet on this and give us a non-foil reprint then my advice is to wait for the initial hype to die down, about three months or so, and then to pick up as many copies as you can fit into a suitcase. This card is casual gold and will always have some type of value as the black Wrath.

 

Dualcaster Mage and Feldon of the Third Path 

Dualcaster Mage and Feldon were both featured in the Built from Scratch C14 deck and are powerful cards in their own right that can certainly find homes outside artifact-themed Commander decks. For discussion on their non-foil counterparts, I’ll refer you to my previous week’s article. Where foils are concerned, I would imagine that the prices would probably be around $20 to $30 range with the initial hype, however will eventually take an Overwhelming Forces turn and head back down towards the $14-$16 range.

One thing I’m not considering in this price is Tiny Leaders hype. Both cards are pretty decent in the format, and Feldon could even be a Commander, so the price might swing upwards to reflect that. They could even initially be as high as $50 each, though I believe that this price is pretty unsustainable in the short term. Long term, without reprints the foil prices are sure to climb. Either way, wait a bit for the hype to die down, and if you want a foil copy of either card the judge foil will be a nice acquisition.

 

Ravages of War 

Now, here is a card that Cube enthusiasts and masochistic Commander players wanted to be reprinted! I think we can all agree that Wizards did this reprint right. Ravages of War was clearly a card that was maintaining an out-of-control price based purely on scarcity and not actual card utility. The price of this card is going to drop drastically due to this judge reprint. Since not everyone likes land destruction, there will be fewer players seeking out copies which means that this will further add to the price reduction. Do I think it will go below $100? Absolutely. Will it go below $50? That could actually be pretty likely. I think eventually this card will settle somewhere from $35 to $45, if I’m guessing at the demand correctly. 

If it turns out that everyone wants this card for their cube, I could see it maintaining a price of $60 or higher like the current judge foil Armageddon. Though the only reason that this ‘Geddon has a $60 price tag is because it is the only nice looking foil of the card printed and the printing happened back in 2004, eleven years ago. So again, based on casual players hating land destruction and players wanting it only ever needing one for their collection, I feel that $35 to $45 is the eventual sweet spot. However, I don’t think the price will be that low initially, as it will take time to distribute more copies of the card onto the market. So expect prices of $60+ for some time until the card saturates the market.

 

Wasteland 

I’m sure this came out of left field for some people. Another judge foil Wasteland reprint? Doesn’t it have two foil reprints already? Geeze, even with it being a freakin’ uncommon in Tempest the cheapest promo copies are $212 currently. Don’t fear though, this price will continue to decline once the new Wasteland hits the market. I think we’ll finally see judge foil Wastelands drop to below $100, which is a great thing for Legacy. It will help more players enter the format, as current players are able to upgrade their non-foil Wastelands, which will put more non-foils on the market for players looking to pick them up. 

Legacy considerations aside, players do also like to have Wasteland for Commander since it can help get rid of pesky non-basics that might be bugging you. There will be some demand from casual, which will help bolster the price, however it is still coming down with this reprint. 

Unfortunately, I don’t think this is going to have an effect on the price of Player’s Rewards promos since they feature the original Wasteland art and will always be the most collectable. The first judge foil printings will drop but these Player’s Rewards copies will be collectors items for the most affluent of Legacy enthusiasts. Though, at the end of the day it will be dropping other Wasteland prices across the board, so obviously that’s a good thing. 

This judge foil reprint of Wasteland makes me think that the non-foil’s price is going to be volatile again this year. If Wizards continues to reprint Wasteland in this fashion, I think that the non-foil price will only continue to go down. I’m honestly not sure if Wasteland is a good card to hold onto for value anymore. If you guys feel differently, let me know in the comments, but from what I’ve seen pricewise Wasteland is only going down.

 

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben 

I mean, just look at that art – this is clearly one of the best pieces Wizards has commissioned for a promotional card. Players are going to want this card, and because it is being distributed at all the WCMQ events there will be plenty of foils entering the market. That pretty much means that foil Thalia is never going above $30 for the foreseeable future. 

Foil Thalias are currently around $30 per copy, which is significantly different than the non-foil price of $5. WCMQ Geist foils are only $5 less than their set foil counterparts, which means that this WCMQ Thalia foil will probably be around $25 once the dust settles. It is possible that some stores will upcharge based on the artwork and popularity of Thalia in Legacy, but I think that ultimately since it is a widely distributed foil that it will fall to slightly below the set foil’s value.

Now, the price of the non-foil is an entirely different matter. I think that non-foils at $5 are underpriced due to her popularity in Legacy, Modern, and Commander. Though this article isn’t about the non-foil counterparts, I feel that Thalia non-foils are due for a price increase soon without a reprint in a supplementary product.

Promo’ed Out 

Between Commander, Duel Decks, Modern Masters, and Promotional Foils, Wizards sure likes to reprint cards these days. Judge Foils and WCMQ foils generally are ahead of the reprint pack in terms of price, due to their print run being somewhat limited compared to the other mass released products. Being foil and sometimes having alternate art also helps their cause, since these additions help the card become more collectable and desirable. However, just like with any other financial Magic endeavour, it’s best to try and get the most for our money. I think that promos like Dualcaster Mage and Feldon will start out high and then come down significantly as more are released into the world. For these types of cards, I would advocate on the side of patience to get the most bang for your buck in terms of promotional cards that you might want for a deck or cube.

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By: Jared Yost

This week I will continue with my review of the Commander 2014 decks to see if there is anything currently undervalued now that the set has been in stores for several months and has been widely distributed.

For the white and blue decks, please check out the first part of my review.

Sworn to Darkness

Ob Nixilis of the Black Oath – For this guy, I’ll quote what I said previously about the planeswalkers from Commander 2014.

There are several factors that make me very interested in the C14 planeswalkers:

Only one printing (though this is a mass distributed product, I still feel this attribute is important in this case)

• Completely new planeswalkers that haven’t been seen before

• They are tied into the lore of Magic very closely, and they included throwbacks to Teferi and Freyalise which is awesome

• Unique Commander appeal, due to a slight rules twist that allows these planeswalkers to be played as generals

• Decently strong effects, since they are the headlining cards of their respective pre-cons

All of these attributes, in addition to the planeswalkers only being $5-$7 each, make the planeswalkers very desirable pickups from the C14 decks.

In addition, I’ll say that Ob Nixilis interacts well with life gain effects and we all know how players love their Sanguine Bonds and Exquisite Bloods. I think all the planeswalkers are going to be casual favorites for years to come and Ob Nixilis will be a decent pickup for $6 like the rest of them.

Flesh Carver – I really like this card if you can pick them up for cheap. Having a reusable sacrifice outlet for Commander decks can be quite powerful if you have combos that synergize with the graveyard or if you are creating massive amounts of token that can be sacrificed easily. I like the Carver because he also leaves behind a body in case he dies. So evasion in the form of intimidate plus a body left behind if he dies is a pretty good deal for me. If you can pick these up for bulk I’m sure they will appreciate nicely in the future.

Crypt Ghast – Despite the massive reprint it had in the Commander 2014 decks, Crypt Ghast is still about $1 retail. Players love being able to double their mana in formats like Commander and I foresee Crypt Ghast being a black staple for years to come. I like foils and nonfoils as pickups because even the nonfoils will be desired by casual players looking to building black commander decks.

Abyssal Persecutor – The Worldwake version of Persecutor is $3 retail while the C14 version is $1.29. Not sure why there is a huge difference in price but it tells me that Persecutor could eventually be worth more than bulk since some versions are still above $3. Persecutor is a really strong card with an easy to ignore drawback in the right deck. 

Magus of the Coffers – Just like Crypt Ghast, Cabal Coffers on a stick is going to be a thing in black decks in order to generate massive amounts of mana in a single turn. Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth has made sure that “swamps matter” effects are powerful in Commander. Planar Chaos copies are still above a $1, so picking up the C14 copies for bulk seems like a good play to me. Planar Chaos foils are actually pretty cheap for this guy too at $6 retail, so those might be worth looking into as well. 

Ghoulcaller Gisa – Cards with lots of lore flavor and powerful effects seem like good pickups to me. Even though she is at $2.75 retail I think there is room for upward movement as time goes on. Outside of an Innistrad themed set, it is going to be super hard to reprint her, so I think the reprint fear with this card is pretty low. 

Sol Ring – I’ll copy my thoughts on Sol Ring from the first part, just so you know I’m not skipping over it for any reason.

“Sol Ring has finally been printed so many times that it is now around $3 per copy. I really don’t think Ring is a great place to put your money anymore. Wizards has proven that they’re going to print this card in every single Commander pre-con that they make, so players aren’t going to be looking for copies that often. Foils are another story, however I feel that regular Sol Rings are past their price prime due to being reprinted into oblivion. ” 

Jet Medallion – My thoughts on the medallions from the Part 1:

“The medallions are a great addition to any mono colored Commander deck, so even with the reprint they will continue to gain value over time. The Tempest copies haven’t been drastically affected by the mass C14 reprint, so even if you have the old school version you didn’t lose that much value (due to the new art and card look compared to the old version). I feel like each medallion has entered its low point going into the $1.50 and less range. I will be looking around for extra copies to trade into and buy for all the colors.” 

Malicious Affliction – This card is very close to Legacy playable, but unfortunately it is so hard to trigger Morbid in Legacy that I doubt it will ever see play there. However, we might see it in a Legacy deck eventually if the format changes in order to support the card.

Even without Legacy play, Malicious Affliction is still a very strong card in Commander and casual formats. Two black mana to kill two nonblack creatures is very efficient. At $3.50, the price seems a little steep to me. However, if it starts declining down into the $2 range then it will be time to pick up copies.

Built from Scratch

Daretti, Scrap Savant – I think that Darretti is right in the middle in terms of planeswalkers desired from the C14 decks. He isn’t as popular as Teferi and Freyalise, however he is the most efficiently costed planeswalker at four mana and has a nice card filtering ability which is almost always desired by mono red decks. Since Wizards has now decided that looting is a red ability, the color has been getting more loot effects over time. Daretti is the culmination of those efforts (at least for now), as Tibalt was a failed experiment and the only other somewhat playable looting cards are Faithless Looting and possibly Tormenting Voice (along with of course Wheel of Fortune and similar cards).

One downfall to Daretti is that you have to play him in an artifact heavy deck. Otherwise, you can use him as a loot-walker but sometimes looting isn’t what you’re looking for in a Commander game. Yet, at $5 it is a very low buy-in for Daretti and I think he has plenty of room to move up from there.

Goblin Welder – With Urza’s Legacy copies still going for $6, if you can find C14 Welders for under $2 I don’t think you can go wrong with picking up some copies. This is a known Legacy card, albeit in a pet deck, yet Legacy and casual demand in addition to Commander will drive Goblin Welder’s price back up over time. 

Dualcaster Mage – How the mighty have fallen. What was once a $15 card is now hovering around $4.50. I’m not sure if the judge foil reprinting of Dualcaster Mage and Feldon of the Third Path will affect the nonfoil price, since judge foils are so rare these days due to the foil distribution shakeup. However, I think that Dualcaster Mage is a pretty awesome card for Commander and might even see some eternal play if red keeps getting more love from Wizards over the years. $4.50 and lower is a good price to pick them up if you’re interested.  

Feldon of the Third Path – Though the card never started out at a very high price, I still think that Feldon is one of the stronger mono colored generals to come out of the C14 series. His ability to copy any creature in a graveyard for a turn, without exiling the card permanently (which means that you can repeatedly copy the same things if you choose), is not something that we see Wizards allow very often. Crappier cards than Feldon have required us to exile the re-used cards in graveyards, so I think that for $1.50 you will have a great spec on your hands. 

Solemn Simulacrum – Since we can expect this card to be in every ohter Commander release from this point out, I don’t think it is worth picking up even though it is card that is ubiquitous in the format. At $4, there are better cards to get that will go up in price sooner than Solemn Simulacrum. Like Sol Ring, I think the days of this card gaining value are over since Wizards continues to reprint Sad Robot. 

Wurmcoil Engine – The most exciting card to receive a reprinting in C14, due to the Modern and Legacy applications of the card. I think that $12 is pretty close to the floor for Wurmcoil Engine – if it isn’t reprinted in Modern Masters II. I’m not sure if they will reprint it there, with the C14 reprint being pretty recent, however I can’t rule it out until I see the set list. I’ll be keeping an eye on Wurmcoil Engine and if isn’t reprinted in MM2 then it will only go up over time. 

Ruby Medallion – See my thoughts on the Medallions in the Sworn to Darkness section. 

Chaos Warp – Even though Commanders can’t be tucked anymore, I still think Chaos Warp is one of red’s most solid removal spells. Most of the time, I’m not even targeting someone’s commander with this because something even more threatening needs to be taken out. Though Wizards has proven that Chaos Warp is bound to get the reprint treatment in Commander products, I still think that if you can get them for $2.50 or lower you’re doing pretty good. 

Scrap Mastery – I really like this card because it has Daretti’s picture on it (hard to reprint) and grants red a recursion spell that has never been seen before for artifacts. Being able to return all your binned artifacts is really powerful. This card is currently less than $1, which means that it is a pretty good speculation target. I’ll be picking up a few extra copies for the future.

Guided by Nature

Freyalise, Llanowar’s Fury – One of the two most popular Commanders from the release, Freyalise should be a high priority for those looking to collect planeswalkers from the C14 set. I’ve talked about the planeswalkers plenty before, but even though Freyalise is $7 I still think she has plenty of upward mobility due to the casual demand she generates.  

Ezuri, Renegade Leader – This is more a Tiny Leaders spec than anything else. Unless Ezuri is banned in the Tiny Leaders format, the elves deck is one of the stronger decks I’ve seen. At $2 and less, it seems like a good pickup to me. The only issue is if he sees a Modern Masters II reprint, than the price will probably drop to $1 and stay around there. Without a reprint though, I could definitely see Ezuri trending upwards over time. 

Immaculate Magistrate – I like this card because it represents two things casuals love, Elves and counters. +1/+1 counters specifically seem to speak to the casual crowd well. At $1.50 and less it seems like a card that is bound to increase in price over time on the back of casual demand. The Lorwyn version is still $4.50 after all.

Creeperhulk – What an awesome Commander card! Being able to ramp out into the hulk and then turn all of your mana dorks into 5/5’s with trample is pretty insane. I’m not sure how this card is still bulk. I think it is a great spec target for future gains. 

Titania, Protector of Argoth – Though a steep buy at $6, I wouldn’t mind trading for a few as a speculation. This card is awesome in casual player’s eyes since it gives protection from land destruction, one of the most hated types of cards in casual games. Being able to beat someone in the face for destroying all your lands is very satisfying. $6 might not be the floor for this card but I feel like it is very close. I’ll be watching Titania closely for any future price movements. 

Siege Behemoth – I like this card because it provides a way for green players to push through that extra damage, but on a budget unlike Craterhoof Behemoth. Buying in cheap here could yield decent returns in the future. 

Lifeblood Hydra – I think this hydra is pretty awesome. It provides a huge trampler than can draw you a bunch of cards when it dies, kind of a green Sphinx’s Revelation with the life gain considered. Certainly cheap at $1.50 or less, I would expect this card to go up over time based on casual demand. 

Emerald Medallion – See my thoughts on the Medallions in the Sworn to Darkness section. 

Song of the Dryads – Now even better with the new Commander rule, Song of the Dryads was already pretty awesome for green removal. Pick up some extra copies and set them aside for future growth. 

Wave of Vitriol – One of the more powerful artifact and enchantment wipes, this card is sure to be included in mono green commander decks that don’t utilize many of these card types for quite some time. It is so devastating when cast because it gets around indestructible, which is key when playing against cards like Darksteel Forge. This card is super cheap right now, so you can pick up several copies to hold for gains. 

Summary

This concludes my review of the Commander 2014 decks. What did you all think of the decks this time around? I thought they were much more powerful than the C13 decks and provided quite a bit of financial value, in addition to the card and synergy strength of the decks, for the MSRP.

Did I miss anything you think is important from the C14 decks? Let me know in the comments.

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By: Jared Yost

This week I’ll be looking at the uncommons and commons in Dragons of Tarkir to analyze their power and see if any have financial value. First though, you should check out the 7000+ word coverage that Travis offered us for the mythics and rares of the set. Though the comments on the article and the Reddit posting may be contentious, I think it’s a great read in order to understand the near future values of the mythics and rares. Since we’re still in the preorder honeymoon phase, card prices are pretty wacky right now. Travis takes them back down to Earth and reminds us that the average value of a box needs to reach a certain equilibrium as more boxes are opened on the market.

Now that we’re caught up on the status of the mythics and rares, let’s get cracking. Of course, I’ll need to cover some ground rules like I’ve done for Fate Reforged.

Since covering just the mythics and rares was such a massive undertaking, Travis tasked me with covering the remaining uncommons and commons in the set that seem powerful enough to see Standard, Modern, Legacy, and even Cube or Vintage play. I’ll stick to Travis’ original article format for this and list out the uncommons and commons I like in the following order:

• White
• Blue
• Black
• Red
• Green
• Multicolored
• Artifact
• Land 

I will not list the uncommons/commons that are bulk, since most uncommons/commons will be bulk and only a select few will wind up seeing tournament play. Also keep in mind that it is really hard for an uncommon to break a $2. Unless the uncommon is insane, then it will almost never be worth more than $2 even at the height of its Standard play. Don’t go around picking up tons of chase uncommons expecting them to spike in price during their Standard life. If an uncommon is really good also expect it to be in an event deck or other supplementary product, furthering the chance none of us will profit from it financially.

I think the best mind set to be in while reviewing uncommons and commons from a financial perspective is to think about the best way to pick them up cheaper than retail, which usually is to set them aside when you crack them or draft them so that you don’t later have to buy these cards at retail prices when you need them for a deck. Foils are nice pick ups for eternal playable uncommons and commons if they are powerful enough to be included in Modern, Legacy, or even Vintage decks. Many times I will prefer to pick up foil copies as they will retain more value in the long term.

Alright, let’s dive into the uncommons and commons in Dragons of Tarkir.

 

White

Aven Sunstriker
Boy, Skyhunter Skirmisher has come a long way huh? While his Standard applications are questionable at best, I could see it slotting into a warrior deck after Theros rotates from Standard. What I really like the Sunstriker for is Commander or Cube, especially since players are still buying the Forged in Stone deck. Skyhunter Skirmisher is in this deck and this card is an obvious upgrade. Finally, another reason to like this card is because casuals love cheap bodies, with evasion, that can quickly kill an opponent.

 

Dragon Hunter
Like Sunstriker above, I feel that this card could have a home in a future warriors Standard build. It actually has a stronger case for inclusion, as it has relevant protection in a format with Dragons and is an important one drop that is needed to curve out nicely. However, that warriors deck may never actually materialize. Mardu Woe-Reaper is much better than this card and doesn’t see a lick of play yet. Who knows, maybe Magic Origins will give us more warrior support since it is a pretty generic tribe and we might get a lord in that set, but otherwise this cards future is tenable at best. Still, I’m going to be setting aside all the copies I get since I feel that warriors is on track to become something in Standard.

Graceblade Artisan
Certainly a weaker Kor Spiritdancer, however that doesn’t mean that casuals won’t eat this card up. Setting our extra copies aside could mean that we’ll be pleasantly surprised in the future.

 

Orator of Ojutai (and the other four uncommon Dragons of Tarkir “dragons in hand matters” cards)
The “dragons in hand matters” cards might be decent in Standard, however I have a feeling that they’re only going to have a main purpose in limited. Now, if this was a Wall of Omens with flying, this card would be absolutely bonkers. As it is, dragons usually cost too much in Standard to make it worth wanting to play enough of them to be able to draw a card if you play this on turn two. It could have Standard potential but this is more speculation than anything else. I’ll be watching to see if players can make this card work well in Standard.

Silkwrap
This might actually be usable in Standard since the format is so fast. The only reason Suspension Field isn’t heavily played is because you can’t play it on curve in order to better use it as removal. Silkwrap will pretty much always be played on curve if you have it, though of course it is terrible in the late game when you are in topdecking mode. Not sure if it will make the cut in Standard, though it can’t hurt to set some aside just in case.

Surge of Righteousness (and the other four uncommon Dragons of Tarkir color hosers)
Looks like we’ve received some color hoser cards in Dragons of Tarkir in addition to Theros. Color hosers are cards specifically printed to be sideboard cards, in case any one particular color becomes too powerful in the format. While Theros gave us color hosers that affected the same color (see Dark Betrayal and others), Dragons of Tarkir went back to a more traditional route of having the color hosers affect enemy colors.

These particular color hosers are great because they affect two colors, not just one. I think this means we’ll be seeing them over their Standard life in sideboards to represent the state of the current metagame. Definitely keep all the color hosers you get from this set and set them aside – any one of them could be good going into the near future and throughout their Standard life.

Blue

Anticipate
I think that Anticipate has a good chance of seeing Standard play somewhere. Yes, it’s a terrible Impulse and we already have Dig Through Time, Sultai Charm, and Jace’s Ingenuity, yet more card selection usually isn’t a bad thing. This might even slot itself into a new combo deck or even U/W Heroic. I’ll be setting my extra copies aside, if not for this Standard than post-Theros Standard or even Modern.

Encase in Ice
See my review of Surge of Righteousness above, in the white section.

Gudul Lurker
Wow, who knew that Triton Shorestalker needed an upgrade already? Definitely a possible inclusion in Mono Blue Devotion, which may be revived now that we have Shorecrasher Elemental. Since it has Megamorph, you can get extra value out of it if the game goes late, which bumps Shorestalker out of the list and slots this in. Even if Standard doesn’t pan out for this card, it is sure to be a casual hit and is definitely a cube worthy if anything else.

Silumgar Sorcerer
Speaking of mono blue devotion, Silumgar Sorcerer would fit well into this strategy. Keep in mind that Exploit is a “may” effect – you can just as easily keep your mana open to counter a creature spell as to cast this as a 2/1 with flying and flash. That’s some nice value, and a good way of playing Jedi mind tricks with your opponent. Now in Standard, when you draw, play a land, and say go in blue everyone is going to need to consider this card.

I have a feeling that this is one of the better uncommons of the set.

Black

Blood-Chin Rager
Wow, now this is the two mana 2/2 that warriors have always wanted!  Efficiently costed creature, in a relevant creature type, that grants semi-evasion to the rest of your warriors when it attacks? I think this card is pretty good and will be seen in warriors if the deck starts popping up in Standard.

Duress
Even though it has been printed into oblivion, Duress will always be worth something on a buylist. Stock your extra copies away, especially foils, and you might be able to cash them out or use them favorably in a trade in the future.

Self-Inflicted Wound
See my review of Surge of Righteousness above, in the white section.

Shambling Goblin
Shambling Goblin is a pretty decent 1/1, since it can trade up into x/2’s and sometimes two-for-one your opponent if they have two x/1’s out on the field. Though it is only a common, I feel like it is one of the better commons in the set.

Ultimate Price
Though Khans was wedge themed, and we’re still seeing plenty of multicolored creature in Standard, there are also plenty of mono-colored targets out there for Ultimate Price. Two mana removal spells in black have always been played heavily in Standard, and this time it will see play again. Definitely one of the best uncommons in the set and will eventually go up to $1-$2 and stay there for its Standard life.

Virulent Plague
Unless Standard becomes swarmed with tokens left and right, this is almost always just going to be in sideboards. Still though, it is an awesome sideboard card, and should be worth something. $0.50 will most likely be the peak since the effect is pretty narrow.

Draconic Roar
See my review of Orator of Ojutai in White. Though I will say that this is one of the better “dragons in hands matters” cards in the set since most of the better dragons are red. If you can activate both modes on this card it will be a pretty huge beating for your opponent.

Dragon Fodder
Even with several reprints, like Duress this is a casual favorite so it will always be worth something on a buylist. It might even see Standard play, so that could further bolster its price in the future.

Dragonlord’s Servant
Like Douglass Johnson, I believe that this is one of the best casual specs in the entire set. Dragonspeaker Shaman is a very popular card amongst dragon enthusiasts, and this guy fits right along curve at two mana into a three mana Shaman. I would definitely target foils of this card because they will be seen in dragon themed Commander decks all the time.

Rending Volley

See my review of Surge of Righteousness above, in the white section.

Sarkhan’s Triumph
If Dragonlord’s Servant is one of the best casual specs of the set, then this is the number one casual spec in Dragons of Tarkir. An instant speed dragon tutor? What more could Scion of Ur-Dragon players ask for in their deck. A staple in any red dragon themed commander deck from this point out. Foils will be especially nice targets.

Twin Bolt
Maybe I like this card too much because it’s Forked Bolt for one mana more, but that one mana more makes all the difference. Being instant speed does matter, though I still think that doesn’t make up for it costing two mana. Not sure if it will be good enough to be played in Standard but it could be a good sideboard against token strategies if you’re not playing black for Virulent Plague. I think this will be a nice casual card if anything.

Green

Ainok Survivalist
A nice sideboard card, if anything else. This will keep the Survivalist above bulk at least. I really like this as an addition to Cubes, so I think foils are good targets.

Display of Dominance
See my review of Surge of Righteousness in White. I will say that I think this is the weakest of the color hosers for now, so in my opinion I think it has the lowest chance of seeing Standard play in the current environment. In the future though it could be great.

Explosive Vegetation
Though Explosive Vegetation has had two other reprints, it is still usually above $1. The Dragons of Tarkir version will pretty much always be worth at least $0.40, so extra copies should easily be able to be shipped to buylists or offered in trades. I would target foils, as the the only other foil version of the card we’ve had so far is the Onslaught version. Dragons of Tarkir foils can be had for a fraction of the Onslaught foil price. Due to Commander demand, I expect the foil versions of DoT Explosive Vegetation to creep up over time.

Scaleguard Sentinels
See my review of Orator of Ojutai in White. Scaleguard Sentinels is pretty awesome if you can get the +1/+1 counter – a 3/4 for two green is super efficient, even for Standard.

Multicolored

 

Multicolored Uncommon Dragon Cycle
Out of the five, the weakest are Cunning Breezedancer and Enduring Scalelord. Their effects are only really good in limited, whereas the other dragons will be nice inclusions in Commander decks. Ruthless Deathfang could be slotted into a blue/black Zombies build with for example Grimgrin, Corpse-Born as commander or another U/B deck that utilizes sacrifice effects. Savage Ventmaw has a neat interaction with the enchantment Aggravated Assault, where you can have infinite attack phases. Finally Swift Warkite has a nice recursion ability (or sneak ability if you’re putting something into play from your hand) that allows you to keep putting creatures into play for enters the battlefield triggers. 

Ranked:
1) Savage Ventmaw
2) Swift Warkite
3) Ruthless Deathfang
4) Cunning Breezedancer and Enduring Scalelord

Artifacts & Lands

 

Dragon Monuments
The monuments will always have a place in Commander, as they provide mana fixing and allow themselves to become 4/4 flying creatures until end of turn if needed. This is pretty nice in a format where board wipes are about as common as water. Though they’ll probably never be more than $0.25 each, I still expect buy lists will want to grab these every so often to fill Commander demands.

Summary

Here’s the top five uncommons and commons (by cycle, if applicable) in list format so that you know which uncommons and commons I think will hold the most financial value in Fate Reforged moving forward.

HONORABLE MENTION: Explosive Vegetation

1. Sarkhan’s Triumph
2. Dragonlord’s Servant
3. Silumgar Sorcerer
4. Color Hoser Cycle (Surge of Righteousness and others)
5. Ultimate Price

Here is my top five FOIL uncommons and commons (by cycle, if applicable)

1. Sarkhan’s Triumph
2. Dragonlord’s Servant
3. Explosive Vegetation
4. Multicolored Dragons (especially the UB, RG, and BR dragons)
5. Duress

Again, let me reiterate that I am not recommending that players buy thousands of these uncommons/commons en masse trying to make a profit by expecting them to spike. Uncommons and commons are notoriously slow to increase in price, if at all. It takes something like Delver of Secrets level of play to make that happen – and even then it was a few years before it really started going up in value.

I also hope this article will enable players to identify the more powerful uncommons and commons in the set so that they can pick them up for decks if they want to play them, and that it helps players building cubes to identify which foil uncommons and commons are best to pick up.

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