Category Archives: Uncategorized

Uncategorized

Will The Ghostbusters Secret Lairs Be Worth the Trouble?

On Monday, September 30th, there’s a new Secret Lair dropping, with a wide range of cards, art, and Intellectual Property (IP for short, the term used when you want to use the fandom/art/characters/lore/etc). It’s mostly Halloween based, but there’s still a few more cards coming, I think, so today I want to focus on an idea that Secret Lairs have been using: Does the card quality matter more than the fandom? 

I used to be a strong believer that the cards matter. We can find many examples of this, but the core principle for me was that the cards in a drop have to be at least playable for people to give a crap. 

And then Hatsune Miku came along. 

I broke down the prices for these when they came out back in May, and I was expressly clear about the IP being the draw and not the cards. Nothing in this drop is more than $4 in its base version, this is incomplete sets of niche lands, cards that have been power crept out of wide usage, and in English foil, the sealed drop is pushing $100 four months later. 

I think there’s opportunity in the other sealed Miku drops–I’m expecting all four Miku drops to hit a peak when the fourth lands near the end of this year and they can be sold as four-volume sets–that are under $50 with shipping and taxes, but be wary of trying to hold forever, holding out for something like $200. That price can happen (see Princess Bride and Evil Dead) but I like turning cards over and getting your profit reinvested into your next moves. 

I did not know who Hatsune Miku was. I knew I’d missed out on other drops because I underestimated the artist, or the genre, or anything like that. I’d even under-ordered things I knew I’d like but I didn’t think would be big, like the Princess Bride or Evil Dead. That is the core question of Secret Lairs now that they have moved to an IP/theme model: Which themes are going to resell best?

For example, the Spookydrop 2023 is the one that had Evil Dead, Princess Bride, and some other things like Doctor Who’s Weeping Angels and Creepshow. They were bundled together, but this is from the model of Secret Lair that did not sell out–they printed to demand. That’s been a huge change, but even so, for drops that happened at the same time, we’ve got a giant gap in pricing. Evil Dead and Princess Bride are over $150, nearing $200, and Creepshow is at half that price, as is the Dr. Who.

So the question of the moment is: Will Ghostbusters be Princess Bride or will it be Creepshow?

My inclination is to think that Ghostbusters (both the cartoon SL and the Slimer SL) will sell well. Both because the IP is strong and nostalgic, very important in this age of Magic pandering to the folks in their early 40s, but also because it’s going to sell alongside the next Miku installment, and that will be gone quickly. 

I recognize that the cards in the Ghostbusters drop are not Field of the Dead-level inclusions, and that’s okay. Not everything needs to be powerful reprints. I could wish for more iconic scenes, like the hallway, but I get what they are going for. It’s also okay that they went for one set with Slimer in 1984, and then one set with The Real Ghostbusters, the animated version. (Ever wanted to know why it wasn’t called just ‘Ghostbusters’ as the movie was? Do you remember some show with a ghost-faced car and a giant talking gorilla? Here’s the explainer you want.) They are trying to tap a wide net of nostalgia, adding a Chucky drop that I’ll address next week when I go through the drop set by set.

The core point here is that it’s okay if the IP of a drop ‘isn’t for you’ because they aren’t trying to make each one be for everyone. They are casting a wide net and eventually they will get to the things you like. Slimer represents one of their favorite things to do lately: Choose a commander, give that commander sweet art, and then add in several cards that are popular in that commander’s deck. Sometimes that’s an IP of Ghostbusters for The Mimeoplasm. Sometimes that’s a bubble-lettered Zaxara, the Exemplary and a bunch of Hydra accessories. 

Strong IP means that the cards can be weak and people buy the cards just to be collectors, not as much for the playing. I know I have a binder just for SL leftovers that I couldn’t fit into a deck, and flipping through those pages makes me happy.

The core lesson, though, is simple: The IP has to be evaluated on its own merits, not just through the lens of your own enjoyment. James and I talked about the D&D superdrop before it landed, and we thought that the Astarion and Karlach drops were solid, if not great. We did not give proper respect to the number of people who love these characters, and they caused the drops to sell out quite rapidly. 

To put it another way, this doesn’t have to be for you, it just has to be for enough people. Creepshow was a little too niche and hasn’t popped off. Evil Dead, Princess Bride, those are much more widely loved and their prices have gone up. 

I’m going to make purchases as though Ghostbusters will sell out quickly, and I encourage you to do the same.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Uncategorized

The Mana Math of Duskmourn: House of Horror

We have all the cards from Duskmourn: House of Horror, and it’s time we look at the numbers and the chances. Every set, we’re given some percentages, but Wizards doesn’t want to make it super clear how hard it is to open the most chase versions of cards. 

Lucky for you, I’ve gotten good at decoding what they are saying and turning it into useful information.

So let’s get into the statistics, and a couple of ways to buy cards that might be worth your time.

The Nightmare Bundle is one of the best add-ons we’ve seen in a while, and that’s all because of the cards that are added in. When you buy one of these for around $80 (currently, we’ll see if that price goes down), you get all of this, plus a deck box:

  • 6 Duskmourn: House of Horror Play Boosters 
  • 2 Duskmourn: House of Horror Collector Boosters 
  • 20 Traditional foil full-art lands
    • 4 Full-art manor lands of each basic land type 
  • 1 of 3 Borderless promo cards 
  • 1 of 3 Movie poster–themed cards 
  • 3 Double-sided movie posters 
  • 1 Glow-in-the-dark spindown die

I’m going to get into the Collector Boosters in a moment, but the real appeal is in the two ‘1 of 3’ cards. You’ll get one of the promos (Exhume, Damn, Crypt Ghast) and one of the movie poster-style cards (Goryo’s Vengeance, Living Death, Archon of Cruelty) always in foil. Those are all solid choices with good use rates, and while I’m not going to run out and buy bundles/cards immediately, I’m almost certainly going to snag a couple of personal copies early and spec buying six months from now.

In the Collector Boosters, there’s three slots with cards we’ll care about, the last three. Two of them are reserved for the Booster Fun nonfoils, and here’s your statistics for pulling one of these from either slot.

Card Frame/Treatment (# of options)Percent chance for any card of that category in one slotPercent chance for a specific card of that category in one slot# of packs to open one specific card from that category in one slot
Borderless Mythic Rare (6)4.00%0.67%150.00
Borderless Rare (10)14.40%1.44%69.44
Extended-Art Rare (13)18.80%1.45%69.15
Extended-Art Mythic Rare (5)3.60%0.72%138.89
Paranormal Rare (20)29.00%1.45%68.97
Paranormal Mythic Rare (2)1.50%0.75%133.33
Double Exposure Rare (12)17.40%1.45%68.97
Double Exposure Mythic Rare (5)3.30%0.66%151.52
Mirror Monsters Rare (4)5.80%1.45%68.97
Mirror Monster Mythic Rare (3)2.20%0.73%136.36

And remember, you have two of these slots, so you’ll have double the chances to open the card you want (or half the packs, depending on which set of data you like to work with) and this is the formulation they used in Bloomburrow. 

Then in the last slot, you can open anything that’s in the previous slots, just at a 85.9% rate. The other 14.1%, you get a chance at the truly rare drops, the Japan Showcase versions, the Double Exposure and the Special Guests. Don’t worry, I’ve got that table for you too.

Card Frame/Treatment (# of options)Percent chance for any card of that categoryPercent chance for a specific card of that category# of packs to open one specific card from that category
Traditional Foil Borderless Mythic Rare (6)3.44%0.57%174.62
Traditional Foil Borderless Rare (10)12.37%1.24%80.84
Traditional Foil Extended-Art Rare (13)16.15%1.24%80.50
Traditional Foil Extended-Art Mythic Rare (5)3.09%0.62%161.69
Traditional Foil Paranormal Rare (20)24.91%1.25%80.29
Traditional Foil Paranormal Mythic Rare (2)1.29%0.64%155.22
Traditional Foil Double Exposure Rare (12)14.95%1.25%80.29
Traditional Foil Double Exposure Mythic Rare (5)2.83%0.57%176.39
Traditional Foil Mirror Monsters Rare (4)4.98%1.25%80.29
Traditional Foil Mirror Monster Mythic Rare (3)1.89%0.63%158.75
Traditional Foil Traditional Foil Japan Showcase in English (10)6.00%0.60%166.67
Traditional Foil Japan Showcase in Japanese(10)3.00%0.30%333.33
Fracture Foil Japan Showcase in English (10)0.70%0.07%1428.57
Fracture Foil Japan Showcase in Japanese (10)0.30%0.03%3333.33
Textured Foil Double Exposure Mythic Rare (5)1.00%0.20%500.00
Traditional Foil Special Guest (10)3.10%0.31%322.58

Before you start freaking out about a non-serialized card being found in 1 out of every 3,333 packs (a drop rate close to that of the serialized Human Sol Ring from LOTR) we need to keep in mind that the Japanese-language versions of cards show up in roughly a third of English (and other language) Collector Boosters, but that’s the only language for the Japanese-language Collector Boosters. 

To put it another way, instead of a 0.3% chance of a Japanese-language Fracture Foil, you have a 1% chance instead if you’re opening a Japanese-language Collector Booster. And with there being ten options, you’ve got a 1/1000 chance, no longer a 1/3333 chance. 

So if these Japanese-language cards blow up to ridiculous values, you’re looking at the Japanese-language Collector Booster boxes being even better investments. 

It’s worth noting that the rest of the distribution here is in line with expectations from OTJ and BLB. The rarest pulls from the OTP subset, the Textured Foils, were 1 in 1500 packs. The Raised Foil Anime cards from BLB were just under 1 in 600, but those cards are cute furry animals and Magic players tend to spend pretty hard on those, whereas the OTP, even if in a lot of decks, those can be had relatively cheaply.

I’m also cognizant that we are entering a long period where Duskmourn might be the only set people care about. Bloomburrow was only given about two months where it’s being opened and getting all the attention. The next big set will be Foundations in November, but that will have a lot of reprints. We don’t have a date for Innistrad Remastered aside from it being in January, so we might get a glut of Duskmourn. It’s not for sure, though, and it might turn out that we love opening Foundations packs, so we’ll have to wait and see.

If you want to discuss my numbers, please feel free to reach out in the comments, on Twitter, or in the ProTrader Discord!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Uncategorized

Checking Back In On New Commanders

I’ve made a conscious effort in the last two years to put my speculative purchases on a timeline. With the frequency of reprints, it’s pretty rare for me to say ‘this is a staple, I want to buy it while it’s cheap’ because repeated reprints are an occupational hazard now.

Instead, I want to refine my buying and focus on ‘I think this card is going to be a popular deck, and what cards go with that?’ sorts of purchases, or at least recommendations. I’ve got some recent examples to point to, and so let’s bring up some older work and see if I was right.

The first example I want to get to is Mr. House, President and CEO. Back in October, when he was previewed, I quickly identified some dice-rolling specs that I felt had a good chance of paying off. Almost 3000 people have built and listed the deck on EDHREC, and for transparency, I’m not one of them. Let’s go through the specs I liked.

Anointed Procession (then-low of $40, now $53 for the cheapest) – It’s a modest gain, but the card is clearly great and being a headliner in the super-premium Cats and Dogs Secret Lair didn’t do anything to lower the price. I wouldn’t buy basic copies now, but as I picked on MTG Fast Finance, $60 is a very reasonable price. Semi-win

Barbarian Class (foils were 50¢, now $3) – Clear win, one of the cards you want most early in the House deck, getting rerolls and eventually enabling even more. Likely you could have done a buylist play here, picking up a big brick and now sending them off for $1 to $1.50 each. 

Ancient Dragons: Copper ($50 to $70), Brass ($14-$21), Gold ($8 to $14) – Dragons are awesome, that’s just a given, and these roll dice in-theme. Baldur’s Gate cards have been creeping up in surprising ways, and while I think these will eventually get some fun reprints, until then, these are headliners who should keep climbing.

Vexing Puzzlebox (borderless foil $4 to $9) – I do love a double-up, and this not only rolls, but gives you something to count up to. I doubt it will go much higher, so if you got in early, time to move out.

Delina, Wild Mage (regular nonfoil $2 to $4) – I have already killed a table by using Delina, Wyll, and Barbarian Class to make infinite attackers. It’s pretty fun, on top of the infinite treasures and Robots I made at the same time.

Comet, Stellar Pup (regular nonfoil $4 to $9) – Comet is cute, and we’re getting all sorts of cute doggy pals. I wouldn’t be shocked if Comet went up in price because of Dogs, not dice, but I’m not picky. How else do you account for the big price disparity between the regular art and the borderless?

Night Shift of the Living Dead (galaxy foil $2 to $8) – Galaxy foils are tough pulls anyway, so this was easy mode.

Maddening Hex (regular $3 to $11) – Limited numbers, as you get one per Commander deck or a good CB pull, means that you get lots of die getting rolled and in low supply, everybody wins.

The other cards I mentioned haven’t increased: Wyll, Blade of Frontiers, Squirrel-Powered Scheme, The Big Idea, Priority Boarding, Wand of Wonder, Chaos Dragon, Contraband Livestock, Recruitment Drive. Good cards for the deck, but we’ll see if any of them take off in the time we have before the next big thing happens. All of these are worth putting in the deck.

Then in December, we got a glimpse of Commander Mustard, and I immediately planned out a great Soldier deck. The winners there are:

Myrel, Shield of Argive (regular nonfoils $10 to $18) – Myrel hasn’t been getting big Standard play or anything like that, she’s just creeping upward due to her abilities being awesome in any white deck. Players love her safety blanket.

Daru Warchief (regular $2 to $3) – So overdue for a reprint!

Adeline, Resplendent Marshal ($7 to $11 for regular nonfoil) – This is likely due to Standard play, so get ready to sell before rotation pulls her price back down.

No increases: Catapult Master, Catapult Squad, Preeminent Captain, Captain of the Watch, Valiant Veteran, Field Marshal, And They Shall Know No Fear, Thousand Moons Smithy, Mobilization, Militia’s Pride, Horn of Gondor, Finale of Glory. Soldiers are amazing, but this deck hasn’t taken off yet.

Finally, in January, when we were neck-deep in MKM previews, they gave us Judith, Carnage Connoisseur, and she’s been on a tear lately too, with just over 3000 decks registered so far. Let’s review what I pointed out:

Blasphemous Act (Secret Lair Foil $17 to $22) – To be fair, I picked this on MTG Fast Finance, and that tends to cause a minor bump as ProTraders take action.

Blood for the Blood God! (surge foils $8 to $12) – Surge foils get targeted here and there, and while this one costs a ton of mana, you can make it cheaper for big gains.

Solphim, Mayhem Dominus (regular nonfoil $8 to $12) – All of the Dominus cycle look great long term, and there’s no shortage of ways to abuse this card.

The ‘deal one damage to everything’ spells haven’t taken off, but End the Festivities has been a popular Standard sideboard card, so it’s price doesn’t count. No real movement on: Disaster Radius, Volcanic Vision, Searing Touch, Fanning the Flames, Chain Reaction, or the rest of the cards I mentioned.

It’s possible that Judith and Mustard just need a little more time, but the hype cycle is going to move on pretty quickly. We’re getting neat new legends at a breakneck pace, and there just isn’t time for all the new things to develop. I stand by the sentiment that these are all unique Commanders, doing something no one else does, but perhaps that’s not enough in this day and age.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Casual Fridays, Uncategorized

Box Toppers for The Lord of the Rings

The title says it all, people. We’re almost done with previews, I’m close to having the math done for the main set, and we’ve got a stack of Box Toppers to look at. Some amazing reprints here, and some surprises as well.

There are 30 toppers, and you get a traditional foil version for every box: Set Booster, Draft Booster, and Collector Booster. Everything here is marked as Mythic, so there’s no Toppers that will be more or less common than others. Surge foil versions will be part of the super-rare slot in Collector Boosters, and nonfoils will show up on the menu in a different CB slot. Those odds will be coming next week, but be aware that there’s three types of Toppers to be found. 

For each card, I’m going to give you the price range currently, plus the EDHREC number. Most of these are Commander-focused, and then we’ll talk about where they should end up. Remember, there will be a nonfoil, a traditional foil, and a surge foil version for each of these.

The Great Henge ($48 for the cheapest, $225 for the most expensive, 115k decks on EDHREC) – Being a mega-staple is great for this card, and I can’t wait to buy $30 or even $20 versions in a few weeks. This will rebound, especially because almost everyone who opens one will have a Commander deck that needs a copy. 

Cloudstone Curio ($40 to $195, 24k decks) – This is a combo card. It’s very rarely played fair, and the price reflects that this has had very few printings. This will get surprisingly cheap, and only if it gets very very cheap will I be buying in.

Ensnaring Bridge ($15 to $150, 9300 decks) – This is more of a Modern sideboard card than a Commander card, and this will be available under $10. I will not be stocking up, as these haven’t really recovered from the Masters 25 print or the Double Masters.

The Ozolith ($24 to $55, 88k decks) – The first reprint since Ikoria, this is going to dip down in price, and if it gets to between $5-$10, I’ll be thinking about buying in. Surge foils will be more expensive than you’re thinking, because counters players are hardcore about their business.

Rings of Brighthearth ($3 to $95, 66k decks) – It’s three bucks after the Commander Legends version, and while this is an important moment in the story and the lore, it’ll be super-mega-cheap and not worth reinvesting. 

Shadowspear ($20 to $100, 99k decks) – The graph has stayed solid for more than a year, and my target is around $12 for the traditional foils. Surge foils will be much more, and the nonfoils will be a good choice under $5, especially with Urza’s Saga being so popular in Modern.

Sword of Hearth and Home ($11 to $26, 71k) – Modern Horizons 2 was opened for a VERY long time. Fetches are at their lowest points, especially for things like retro frame foils, and having this version come along is going to help make sure that the card stays cheap. If you haven’t played with it, I suggest you do: it’s probably the most powerful thing you can do in Commander when it hits.

Sword of the Animist ($10 to $30, 144k decks) – This is an attack trigger, not a damage trigger. I play this in most decks, even if the creature dies it’s a bonus land per turn. It’s recovered from its reprintings, and I think it’ll rebound here too. I’m going to go after a couple Surge foils early, but cheap nonfoils will be really tempting.

Thorn of Amethyst (75¢ to $330, 17k decks) – The BRO archive gave us more than one dirt-cheap version, and this should keep it there. It’s hard to foresee a world where this gets valuable.

Ancient Tomb ($75 to $300, 295k decks) – Even Surge foils probably won’t outstrip the BFZ Expedition versions here, but I expect this to be one of the more expensive Toppers. The price has recovered for every printing, even as a rare, so I’m in when this price gets low.

Bojuka Bog (25¢ to $100, 420k decks) – This is a super-mega-popular card in Commander, a good effect that doesn’t cost you anything more than a tapped land. It’s a very useful card, and that’s why it’s listed all over the place. Time Spiral Remastered retro foils are the high price, but Surge foils really have a chance to be very very expensive. Nonfoils won’t be much, but the foils should do well.

Boseiju, Who Shelters All ($18 to $100, 21k decks) – The Secret Lair didn’t help, and this version will keep all the versions cheap for a while yet. I won’t be trying to spec on this.

Cabal Coffers ($16 to $130, 172k decks) – I thought that when this went below $20 in MH2 it was a strong buy, and I did. Now it’s a couple bucks cheaper, plus this version means that this goes from a spec to the bad spec box. Get your personal copies cheap, but don’t expect big growth.

Castle Ardenvale (bulk to $20, 60k decks) – Don’t bother, though Surge foils will outstrip the original FEA copies.

Cavern of Souls ($50 to $180, 134k decks) – This has gotten several reprints over the years, and generally bounces back. This printing should put the cheapest version down to around $40, and I’ll be planning on getting some copies. 

Deserted Temple ($35 to $320, 11k decks) – This has been pricey due to a complete lack of reprints. No List, no Secret Lair, nothing. It’s usually only used with something like a Gaea’s Cradle, and the piddling EDHREC numbers mean that this version is going to be very cheap, like under $10.

Gemstone Caverns ($55 to $300, 118k decks) – I admit, I knew this was pricey but I had no idea so many cEDH decks played this card. As such, this is something I’ll have to consider buying in on when the price reaches bottom.

Homeward Path ($17 to $70, 52k decks) – This was in Commander decks for three straight years, plus a judge foil. There’s never been a large number circulating, for all it’s a useful card. I’ll want to get in on foils when they hit bottom.

Horizon Canopy ($15 to $120, 21k decks) – The other versions of the sac lands are not expensive at all, generally speaking, and Canopy will take a while to recover here too.

Karakas ($27 to $72, BANNED in Commander) – This will be a relatively inexpensive card, as it’s banned in Commander. There’s very little use cases for it, though it’s a Cube staple. It’ll be lucky to hold $15 and it won’t be worth buying in.

Kor Haven ($15 to $100, 12k decks) – It’s useful, sure, but it’s also been given very few reprints over the years, none of them major. I expect this to hit $7, and even buying in there isn’t appealing, given how long it’ll take to climb back up.

Minamo, School at Water’s Edge ($22 to $100, 37k decks) – There’s a lot of Commander who love this card, and unless you need Islands specifically, it’s a freeroll. The MYB foils have really languished, though, so even buying in cheap it might take too long to rise again.

Mouth of Ronom (bulk to $17, 4800 decks) – Bad card, even in Snow strategies it’s barely played. Stay away.

Oboro, Palace of the Clouds ($60 to $300, 8000 decks) – Another card where there’s very little reprint equity, this is mainly used in some weird landfall combo decks or other such shenanigans. Useful, but not in high demand. Watch this price drop like an ACME safe.

Pillar of the Paruns ($1 to $15, 4800 decks) – Being unable to cast artifacts in Commander is a real drawback, and this version, while having sweet art, will not be expensive or worth picking up as a spec.

Reflecting Pool ($5 to $60, 133k decks) – It’s in a ton of decks, but it’s also been printed a ton of times. The super-expensive version has a Plains symbol misprint, and this version will be the one that keeps this card very very inexpensive. I was thinking of getting copies before, but now I’m staying away for a while.

Shinka, the Bloodsoaked Keep ($12 to $130, 17k decks) – It’s a useful card, it shows up once in a while in Modern, it costs you almost nothing in Commander to give a notable bonus when needed. It’s not played enough to be worth buying anytime soon.

Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth ($36 to $205, 294k decks) – I knew this was popular, but not 300k decks popular. Still, the graph doesn’t lie: the most recent printing started out low and has more than doubled since then. I don’t think I’m going to buy right away, but this is on the list of things I want to buy at the low point.

Wasteland ($20 to $80, 45k decks) – It’s not super popular, but it does see some play and it’s useful to have an out to land-based problems. The graph for the EMA version shows that the price has gone down with each of the recent printings, and this should be under $10, and I don’t think the demand will be there to help it recover.

Yavimaya, Cradle of Growth ($8 to $17, 232k decks) – Another MH2 card that shows the sheer number of copies opened, this will go pretty low and will have me considering when to buy in.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.