Category Archives: Watchtower

The Watchtower 7/2/18 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.


With today’s B&R update, Deathrite Shaman and Gitaxian Probe are gone from Legacy, while Standard remains, well, not fully intact, but intact as it was before today. DRS’ departure is certainly the biggest news here, if only for the sheer volume of the change. It feels like half the people playing Legacy have to go find four new cards to slot into their decks. Of course the change is more impactful than that; this isn’t just about downgrading to a less-effective version of DRS, as one may see moreso with Gitaxian Probe. DRS shaped the format considerably, with easy access to four colors, maindeck incidental graveyard hate, and reach against control decks who had otherwise locked up the red zone.

It’s tough to know what the greater implications of the DRS ban are, because it’s going to reverberate across the format several times. We do know one thing though, and that’s that the Legacy being played at the Pro Tour in August is going to be the most interesting that format’s been in years.

Lion’s Eye Diamond

Price Today: $230
Possible Price: $400

Most immediately, I suspect Dredge is positioned for a resurgence in popularity. Removing DRS from the format is obviously a huge win for the deck. When something like half the room was packing a playset of one-drops that attacked the graveyard, it made your life a lot more miserable. Were those games unwinnable? I doubt it. But if the Dredge player had to choose between seeing DRS on turn one and not, I’m sure they’d prefer not.

Should Dredge really show up in greater numbers following this, or even if people consider it, Lion’s Eye Diamond has the biggest, fattest target on it. First of all, it’s a stupidly powerful card. In fact, I don’t think you can make the argument that it isn’t the most powerful card in Legacy in the abstract. Second, it’s going to be core to just about every Legacy Dredge build. Like yeah, I’m sure there are Dredge builds that don’t incorporate it, but is that just because it’s expensive? And speaking of expensive, it’s on the reserve list. We all know how that’s been going recently.

$230 is certainly a tough buy-in, but look at the facts. LED is absurdly powerful. Dredge, the deck where LED does the most work, has been under pressure by DRS for something like six years, and it’s only been getting worse. That predator is now gone from the ecosystem. Nobody has been paying much attention to Dredge or LED because of all of this, but now they will. Oh also it’s good in Storm and other combo decks. And other playable RL cards are $400, $500, and more.


Bridge from Below (Foil)

Price Today: $10
Possible Price: $25

If LED is your go-all-out purchase based on this news, this is the more subdued choice. Like LED, I can (kind of) imagine Dredge decks that don’t run four Bridges, but I don’t know what universe that’s correct. Almost the entire reason to run Dredge strategies is the ability to flood the board with a bunch of zombie tokens on turn one or two, and Bridge is what enables that.

Bridge got a reprint, but that was all the way back in 2013, in the first Modern Masters. Remember that the original MMA had a much smaller print run than the following Masters sets. So while we’re not just looking at the original Future Sight copies, the additional supply from MMA is much less than if it were in MM2 or MM3. Also, Future Sight foils are something like $55, while MMA foils are a whole $10. That’s an appealing gap.

There’s maybe forty or fifty copies on TCG of the MMA Bridge foils right now, and I’m sure some more scattered about. These are a strict playset though, so forty copies is only ten players. Add in that the price ramps up to north of $15 after about three playsets, and it’s clear that there’s a strong possibility of growth on Bridges.


Pir, Imaginative Rascal (Foil)

Price Today: $13
Possible Price: $35

Legacy is the hot news of the day, but realistically, the DRS ban will matter to far fewer people than will sit down to play EDH at some point today, so we can’t forget about that format entirely. While I try to focus on new commanders, and the cards those new commanders shine a bright spotlight on, it’s important to remember that popular generals continue to be popular. Atraxa, for instance, is still the most built commander this month. All the staples of that deck are going to have been picked clean by now, but new cards to the strategy will present opportunities. And since the deck continues to be built on a weekly and monthly basis, new players to the strategy are implementing those new cards.

Battlebond brought Pir to the table for Atraxa. He’s a personal Hardened Scales, except that he works for all permanents. Which hey, means your planeswalkers get an additional counter every time you place a counter on them, which is the most popular build of Atraxa. And since Atraxa is all about populating counters, and each of those is a trigger, one turn with Pir in play does a lot of work.

Battlebond foils have been on fire recently, and I suspect any of them that are popular are going to end up fairly pricey, ala Conspiracy 2. Pir is going to be up there, since he slots so well into Atraxa, as well as does other things, like fetch Toothy. There aren’t that many pack foils on the market right now, and I expect there will be fewer, and they’ll be more expensive, in a few months.


Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.


The Watchtower 6/25/18 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.


With Magic 2019 fully spoiled (I think), it’s clear that Wizards wants to make core sets relevant for players of each level of engagement. New world order is clear and obvious across the set at common and uncommon, helping function as the upper level of the new player onramp. Rares and mythics up the complexity a fair bit, and also work to include a handful of welcome reprints, not least among them Scapeshift and Crucible of Worlds. We’re also getting a new cycle of the original elder dragons, and they’re seemingly much less elder and much more dragon this time around.

Otherwise it’s business as usual for our types. Standard is dead and irrelevant, and M19 isn’t going to change that formula. Trying to scope out what will be important in the fall is tough, as the Kaladesh and Amonket blocks are over-represented relative to Ixalan, or so it seems, at least.

Eldrazi Monument

Price Today: $6
Possible Price: $15

While I slept on Najeela at release, since I saw her as a Warrior tribal card, it’s become clear that the more relevant text is the second paragraph. Extra combat steps can get wild in EDH real fast, and when you combine that with the potential to just go infinite with the correct combination of creatures, it provides a top end that players can lean into if they so choose.

There are a multitude of ways to set up that combo in this deck, as is the case for all combos in EDH. One of those paths is with Bloom Tender. If you have all five colors represented amongst your permanents, one tap of Bloom Tender makes all the mana you need to activate Najeela, which means so long as you can tap Bloom Tender every attack, you can just go ham. Wouldn’t your opponent kill Bloom Tender on the first attack though? Of course they’ll try. But if their strategy is to kill it with blocks, indestructible puts an end to that real quick. How does one get indestructible not only on Bloom Tender, but ideally the whole team? Why, Eldrazi Monument!

Monument is great as a card you can slam and then immediately win the game; your opponents may realize that your victory is withheld because if you attack your team will die, only for you to plop this down and get in. It’s completely fine every other turn though, as you can play out Monument with a few creatures in play, and so long as you can generate warrior tokens or any other type of disposable creature, you can keep it up indefinitely. Basically what I’m saying is that ever Najeela deck should be running Monument.

Of course Monument isn’t limited to Najeela either, which is why it’s in 10,000 EDH decks. Originally from Zendikar, it’s shown up in Commander 2015, and Commander Anthologies recently. Overall supply on non-foils is short. We’re not talking about “gone twenty minutes after this goes live” short, but certainly “less than 20 copies by winter” is realistic. Especially if Najeela drives a new generation of EDH players to acquire copies. Foils are great too at $20, though there’s maybe six copies, so it didn’t feel worth writing about exclusively.


Tatyova, Benthic Druid (Foil)

Price Today: $4
Possible Price: $12

Dominaria hasn’t been out long, but Tatyova has made herself at home rapidly. According to EDHREC, she’s one of the most built commanders this week, and this month. (And has been since Dominaria released.) She’s not on the all-time list, but give it a few months. Dominaria came out like two months ago.

Not only has she proven a popular commander, but she’s showing up in countless lists as part of the 99. This isn’t surprising. Gaining life is good. Drawing cards is good. And if you’re in green, a lot of lands will enter the battlefield, so that will happen a lot. A lot of cards, a lot of life. All good.

Pack foils are around $4 to $5 today, and I’ll tell you this up front, supply is deep. Deeper than I typically allow for when considering cards to watch for. But this isn’t a pick of the week article, it’s a “cards to be aware of out there” article. Tatyova isn’t going to be $20 this year. But she’s going to get picked up by every single EDH player out there, possibly in multiples in many cases. That’s going to drain supply eventually, and suddenly you’ll end up with one of the most popular Simic cards in the format with a dwindling supply of foils.


Hermit Druid

Price Today: $4
Possible Price: $15

Muldrotha, while only two months old, is working overtime to overtake Atraxa as the most-built commander ever. He’s consistently been the most popular daily and weekly commander since Dominaria hit the shelves. Sultai is the best color combo for EDH (that isn’t 4c or 5c), and best of all, he’s completely generic. Build a tribal deck, or an enchantment deck, or a cards with art that makes you question your stated sexuality deck. Really, whatever. He just lets you play anything you want over and over.

One card that’s going to be exceptional in this strategy is Hermit Druid. Longtime players know that name as a supremely degenerate combo piece. Druid was part of a combo that could kill on turn one (I believe) in Vintage way back. When Legacy was spun off of Vintage it banned Hermit Druid from the onset, and he’s been there ever since. You’ll also notice that you don’t hear his name come up in discussion of “what could be unbanned in Legacy?” very often, because most authors realize it’s not something that makes the format better by existing.

This isn’t about Legacy though, it’s about EDH, and the fact that one activation of Hermit Druid can be, with proper deck construction, something akin to “G, T: draw 20 cards.” Sure they’re not in your hand per se, but with Muldrotha in play, they basically are. Nothing in EDH has really leveraged Hermit Druid as well as Muldrotha does. Between how good he is here, how underutilized he’s been so far, and how popular Muldrotha appears to be, I’d say that Hermit Druid’s time is just about upon us. Weatherlight copies at $4 are going to be getting snapped up as more and more people get on the Muldrotha train, and those few $30 judge copies are awfully tempting to boot.


Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.


The Watchtower 6/11/18 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.


Comedy is looking at the results of the SCG Con ‘No Ban List Modern’ event. First place? Eldrazi. Not Cloudpost Eldrazi either. Just…Eldrazi. Like, nearly card-for-card that Eldrazi lists from Eldrazi Winter a few years ago. They tossed in two Umezawa’s Jittes and that was basically the only difference between this totally unchained, absolute most monstrous deck one could assemble with the Modern card pool, and what people were showing up to FNM with in February 2016. Awesome. Oh and also like ten of the top sixteen decks were Eldrazi too so that’s something. What’s even funnier is that second place is honest to god Miracles, which isn’t even legal in Legacy anymore. Hell of an event.

Champion of Lambholt (Foil)

Price Today: $5
Possible Price: $15

Champion of Lambholt has been a quiet favorite of mine for awhile. Sure you can put Craterhoof Behemoth into play and just smush everyone’s faces into the mud, but sometimes that doesn’t work for a variety of reasons. They counter Behemoth, or you can’t get the mana together, or they counter the trigger, whatever. Champion works from the other direction; rather than coming down as one big spell to wipe away the game, Champion builds up over two or three turns to grow from an unassuming three mana 1/1 to a 10/10 that makes your entire team unblockable.

It’s taken awhile to really burn through the stock of Champion. It was released in Avacyn Restored (and is still the only foil), and EDH wasn’t quite as popular back then. As EDH has grown Champion has been picked up by those in the know, that were playing long enough to spot it and recognize it for how good it could become. Supply has finally just about emptied, and we’re going to see this restock a good bit higher once all the $5 copies are gone.

It’s got all the ideal markings of a valuable EDH foil. A single foil printing, six years old, and over 10,000 EDH decks. To add fuel to the fire she’s also a warrior, and guess what was just printed? A 5c warrior legend that wants to attack and has been one of the most built commanders of the last week? Lambholt’s Champion’s time has come.


Fellwar Stone

Price Today: $12
Possible Price: $50

In the last few days, some readers have pointed out on Twitter that there’s a growing 93/94 EDH scene. That’s exactly what it sounds like; EDH played with cards legal in 93/94. Those sets, in case you weren’t clear, are the following:

Limited Edition Alpha
Limited Edition Beta
Unlimited
Arabian Nights
Antiquities
Legends
The Dark
Fallen Empires

Alpha and Beta cards are obviously already insane, so if we want to think about where to start, it wouldn’t be there. Rather our best bet is going to be between Unlimited and The Dark; sets with remarkably low supply that don’t have quite the same name recognition as Alpha and Beta. Furthermore, we would want to consider cards that may not already be amazing in 93/94, but would be stellar in an EDH format. We already know what’s good in normal EDH, so that should help direct our attention with this fledgling format.

If you’ve played EDH a single time you know what the most popular cards in that format are — mana rocks. They’re played in every single deck, and they do a ton of work. Every deck starts with them. Given that, what mana rocks are available to 93/94?

Well, Mana Vault, but those are like $100 for Unlimited copies so uhh, forget it. Fellwar Stone isn’t as obscene in terms of power level, but it’s also only $10 to $15 for NM The Dark copies. If this format sees even a modicum of popularity, that price will absolutely not hold steady. Will 93/94 EDH become a thing? I don’t know. But if it does, colorless mana rocks are going to be right along for the ride.


Barl’s Cage

Price Today: $1
Possible Price: $30

Keeping on the 93/94 EDH train, I’d also like to look at Barl’s Cage. Don’t bother reading the card text on Cage — or any card from The Dark, for that matter. Just read the oracle: {3}: Target creature doesn’t untap during its controller’s next untap step. Notice there’s no tap ability on there either, just pay three, you don’t untap. You can’t keep something tapped for multiple turns by choosing not to untap it ala Tawnos’ Coffin, but you can hit multiple creatures every turn, so it’s roughly a wash I’d say.

Cage is colorless, which means every deck gets to play it, which is a big deal. Take a look at the quantities of cards played in a single color relative to artifacts and you’ll see the difference. Eternal Witness is one of the most played cards in normal EDH at like 50,000, while Sol Ring is at just about 200,000. Lightning Greaves, the second most-played colorless identity card, is over 80,000. Colorless matters when considering EDH adoption rates.

Cage also strikes me as appealing because the overall creature quality in 93/94 is terrible overall. There simply isn’t a depth of useful creatures in the format. Creatures were a bad card type in Magic for a long time. A few existed, but overall, there’s no depth to that pool. As such, Cage being able to tap down one to two creatures means it can squash possibly all of the creatures worth attacking with. Compare that to this type of effect in regular EDH, where any one of ten creatures in play at any time can be remarkably dangerous.

At $1 for The Dark copies, if you think 93/94 EDH is going to go somewhere, you can’t find a better position.


Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.


 

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The Watchtower 6/4/18 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.


Typically, this is where I would talk about the Pro Tour that wrapped up about 15 hours ago. We’d look at dominant archetypes, scour them for keystone cards, and try to identify potential pillars of the new Standard in October.

Except that the Pro Tour was a wasteland. Look at the top performing Standard decks — Mono-Red Aggro, Red-Black Aggro, Red Vehicles, Red Menance, Red Scare, Red Square, Seeing Red, Redoubled Efforts, uhh, RedderRabbit.

There isn’t even any blood in the stone that is the control lists. I was all set to look for key UW Control cards, except that the first Ravnica set won’t have Azorious — they’re getting Dimir instead. Which means Teferi, and Lyra, and History of Benalia may not be part of the control archetype. Instead we should be focusing on the black control cards, since that’s the strategy that’s getting paid. Once Standard prices deflate over the summer, mid-August perhaps, it will be worth trying to find opportunities. Until then though, we’re going to be focusing on EDH, maybe the reserve list, and Modern, should the opportunity arise.

Swiftfoot Boots (Foil)

Price Today: $5
Possible Price: $15

First up this week is Lightning Greaves’ cousin, Swiftfoot Boots. A touch more expensive in the activation cost, but that’s because you get to upgrade from shroud to hexproof, which is not a negligible difference, as any equipment-themed deck will tell you.

Swiftfoot Boots is the third most played artifact that isn’t a signet. It goes Sol Ring, Lightning Greaves, Swiftfoot Boots. 72,000 decks, according to EDHREC. That’s, as they say, “an assload of decks.” I do not need to give you more reasons why you should believe me that this is a desirable, in-demand card.

Boots have been reprinted a lot. After their initial run in Magic 2012, they were in Commander 2013. And Commander 2014. And Commander 2015. And Commander 2016. And Commander 2017. And then Masters 25. You’ll notice that only two of those have foil printings — the original Magic 2012 run, and now Masters 25. People that didn’t want to spend $15 on foil M12 copies got a break with M25, since they’re now down around $5. That’s where we are now, and it’s not going to last. Pick up your foil M25 copies before they’re $15.


Kodama’s Reach (Foil)

Price Today: $6
Possible Price: $15

Cultivate is the most played sorcery in EDH. The second most played is Kodama’s Reach, which is the original version of the functional reprint that is Cultivate. Kodama’s Reach is like Swiftfoot boots. It has its original foil printing, a zillion Commander printings, and a second foil printing. (Although the order is a bit difference I believe.) Point being that there’s two foil copies of Kodama’s Reach – the original Kamigawa one, and the Modern Masters one.

I do not need to tell you that neither Champions of Kamigawa nor Modern Masters are recent sets. Modern Masters was 2013, and Champions of Kamigawa is even older than that. And without any more Masters sets on the horizon, there are basically no foil reprint venues on the table right now. This year’s core set I guess? That’s it though.

You’ll find roughly ten foil MMA printings of Kodama’s Reach on TCG right now, and zero — yes, zero — NM foil Champions copies. Of a card in 45,000 EDH decks.


Command Tower (CMA)

Price Today: $60
Possible Price: $100

We’ll wrap up the week with a bigger ticket item. Command Tower is the most played land in EDH, behind only basic lands. (Amusingly enough, none are played in 100% of decks they could be). Like Kodama’s Reach and Swiftfoot Boots, it’s found in nearly every Commander set. Anyone building an EDH deck is going to get to the mana base, and there’s a good chance the first card the scribble down on the back of the Denny’s napkin is “Command Tower.” Its utility only continues to grow, as we see more viable five-color decks enter the fray in the way of Ramos, Dragon Engine and Jodah.

There’s two foil copies of Command Tower available. One is the judge promo, which is fairly cool. Fairly. But honestly, not as cool as the Commander’s Arsenal printing. The judge promo has the original art, which is, come on, just not that cool. Sort of a bland…tower. While the Commander’s Arsenal printing isn’t blowing anyone away, it’s at least got some color in it, which is an improvement over the judge copies.

In any case, judge copies, where you can find them, are $100 or more. Commander’s Arsenal copies, of which there are like six available, are between $60 and $70. Probably not going to be long before that gap closes and both copies end up at $120.


Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.