I’m trying to get people used to the idea of ‘Dump Week’ as the first week that a Secret Lair Drop becomes available widely on TCGPlayer. I wasn’t prepared for this phenomenon when it first happened, but I cannot deny that it is real and it is powerful.
In case you doubt me, let’s go over some recent Lairs and see how real this is.
A gentle reminder that Dump Week is not set in stone. It’s whenever the majority of Lairs arrive in individuals’ hands, and these are people who don’t want to hold the Lair for later reselling. They want to get as much as they can for it, but right now and are willing to undercut everyone to make what money they can. I can’t speak to why they are in such a hurry to be the first one to sell, but they are, and this is the result.
Most of the time, I’m expecting a card to presell at a very high price, as the first copies sold tend to be very overpriced, and then there’s an immediate drop in price, followed by a bounce upwards as people think a card’s gotten too cheap, and then usually a slow downward trend in price as the floor is sought again.
I’m going to go backwards in time, from right now, and count off some of the pricier cards from each drop to see how cheap they were at some point in their history.
Festival in a Box: Atlanta 2025
Sliver Legion: Every other nonfoil is $55+, and foils start around $65. Except for the Extra Life one, which art is all white paper and a bit of crayon. I appreciate the spirit in which these are sold, but they can do better for a charity. The FIAB version, which you could only get by buying the whole bundle, went down to $26 and is now $29. It’ll creep upwards slowly from here on out, but three bucks is three bucks.
The Ur-Dragon: I picked this on the most recent MTG Fast Finance, and honestly, I’m about two weeks late to the party. The best commander of all time (long may he reign) who cheats at Magic by making the most powerful creature type a whole mana cheaper no matter what, the only special versions were from Commander Masters and really don’t highlight his glory. The first sold copies here went for $18, and now you need to spend just under $30. It’s worth it, too, to pick up some copies for later reselling.
Featuring: Deathburger
Foundry Inspector (Galaxy Foil) – Really, I need to let the graph do the talking here.
Made it all the way down to $7, and rebounded back up. You didn’t have long at $7, as Dump Week is a fleeting thing, but it was there if you were ready.
Goblin Engineer (Galaxy Foil) – Same thing, went down to a low of $9, now back up to $15.
Alien Auroras
Crucible of Worlds (Galaxy Foil) – An interesting case here, as Dump Week happened, prices fell then rebounded, but then people really needed to sell their galaxy foils and so the card has re-fallen to an even lower price.
I cannot predict why this happened here, but even the cheapest early print nonfoils are $32, so having these available right now at $28, with 171,000 registered decks on EDHREC, is pretty wild.
Sylvan Safekeeper has a similar trend, though not as pronounced on the re-gain and just plateaued a little before dropping again.
Here’s Zuran Orb, which seems more on pattern:
My guess here is that for the more expensive Lairs, being galaxy foil, there were a lot of people holding and they tried to cash in but just undercut each other to pieces. If you know a clearer explanation, please stop by the Discord and fill me in!
Sonic the Hedgehog X Magic: the Gathering (I’m combining all the lairs here)
Hammer of Nazahn (Piko Piko Hammer) (Rainbow Foil) – In line with expectations: Started at $8, dropped to $5, bounced to $10, drifted back down to $8.
The Reaver Cleaver (Knuckles’s Gloves) (Rainbow Foil) – Similar story: dropped like a rock to $6.50 to begin with and has slowly crept up since.
Sol Ring (Rainbow Foil) – This was a little different, as it didn’t hit the low in the first week. Instead, it took about 3-4 weeks to reach bottom, at which point it hopped back up to $25, been on a very slow decline since.
The rest of the drop has followed the expected pattern: Early drop the first week, small bounce, then trend down.
So with this pattern in mind, here’s my main targets for the drop landing Monday, the Secret Scare Superdrop:
Animate Dead – Coming from Iron Maiden: Album Art, I’m ambivalent on this Lair but this card should be a sweet pickup in the $10-$15 range.
Furby Sol Ring (Confetti Foil) – The Confetti drops are $60, and are another attempt to goose the profit margins for Magic cards. If confettis sell out fast, I’d target these at $25 for a resale in the $40-$50 range, but if the confettis are slow to sell out, we might get a chance at these for even cheaper.
Tamiyo’s Safekeeping (Confetti Foil) – I mentioned this last week, but as a $3 uncommon, I’m hoping to get these close to $3 but I still think $5 would be a good entry price.
Vito, Thorn of the Dusk Rose – I fully expect to see these foils in the $5 range, and that’s an easy pickup.
Guardian Project – If we’re lucky, we’ll get this below $20 but I suspect we’ll have to settle for $25.
Dwight-O-Lantern (Reaper King) – The five-color Commander deck in Lorwyn 2 is Elementals, so our only other potential pothole is a bonus sheet in the set where the King is reprinted. Otherwise, I’ll enjoy buying this for $2-$4.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
































