Unlocked Pro Trader: It Don’t Look Right

Readers!

This week I was going to write about the specs that I think are likely to go up in price as a result of the Lord of the Rings 20 years too late to strike while the Mount Doom is hot edition giving us a true Saga Commander in Bomb Tombadil. Cliff scooped me by writing that exact article a day earlier and that means that we at least have a consensus as a writing team. We didn’t discuss this beforehand, if we had, I wouldn’t have to pivot to another idea at the 11th hour.

I’m not complaining, I was looking for inspiration and found some quickly- some of the prices don’t look right. Whenever I come across a price that looks wrong, I investigate and about a third of the time it makes me think about something I hadn’t been keeping my eye on. Other times it’s nothing. I’ll talk about what to look for and also pretend this is more art than science so you keep taking my advice. Job security an all that. Speaking of job security, did I tell you I never learned how to segue?

This card is literally the first card I looked at when I opened EDHREC today. That’s phenomenal luck for a guy who had to audible to a new topic – can you see what looks wrong to me? Apart from the 3rd price being MTGO, that is. Left is Card Kingdom, right is TCG Player. That’s right, the price is higher on TCG Player than on CK. That’s unusual, and we should verify that the cards got scraped correctly. Sometimes the price is lower because they sold out and the scraper hits an art card or an oversized Planeswalker card or something. Sometimes the price is lower because CK hasn’t noticed the card is going gangbusters on TCG Player and no one bothered to scoop up the copies on CK. How many copies are we talking, anyway?

When it says “8 available” it means “8 minimum.” Card Kingdom has it set up so the Jasons Alt of the world don’t buy 300 copies and then tell them “You can hang onto those and just give me whatever you’ll be paying on your buylist next week.” How many EX copies, though?

You know that it’s actually 1 copy. Any number under 8 you know is probably their stock unless they have some unsorted yet. The cheapest copies have not sold yet, and they might even be cheaper than TCG Player. So far the opposite of what I expected is happening – and a trip to TCG Player might untangle this snarl a bit.

So not only is the real price above $4, it’s selling at that price.

The cheapest copy is actually $5.19 for a non-foil and $4.47 for a foil, because Collector Boosters have no pity or remorse and they fart more curly foils onto the market than the market needs or wants. The foil may be tanking but the non-foil price is going up. It’s above $4 and it’s going up.

Brainstorm Brewery listeners will be familiar with DJ referencing something he calls the “Direct Premium” and I think that may be the case here with the big partition between Zoopiez and TOA. I don’t know who Zoopiez is, but we all know TOA and they’re direct sellers. If a seller can get $6 for a card on direct, they will and the “last sold” price can sometimes confound the market price calculation. $6 copies selling on direct while $4 copies languish in stores with few sales and a good reason for that is the cart optimizer. The optimizer doesn’t always favor stores with the best price, it usually favors the largest inventories. That’s why you can get $1 more for a card because they have already paid shipping once and the optimizer will keep your copy in the cart for $6 rather than send the buyer a $5 card with $1 shipping because the $6 card with $1 shipping is calculated as $6 not $7 by the optimizer provided you have shipping set up to not charge $1 on each additional item. Another reason is that sellers are reluctant to list cards under $4 because after the flat payment and fees, you made less than buylist on a $3-$5 card.

Do I think that this card will continue to go up in price? I do.

Of the 28 non-reprint cards in the Brothers” War Commander decks, Workshop is played the most by a good 20% margin. It can go in any color deck, making it versatile enough to not immediately be ruled out as a potential staple, and it synergizes with weird, unfair lands that 12 year old me loved because they produced a ton of mana and 38 year old me loves because they still produce a ton of mana and they stopped making new Cloudposts because they were broken. It’s the most played card in precons that are all done getting opened because Brothers’ War was 9 sets ago (look it up) and it’s cheaper on CK than on TCG Player. One of those prices is about to change and my money is that the $4 will change to a $6 or a $7 soon, so get them at $4 why don’t you?

Also, don’t ask why the borderless version is cheaper, that makes no sense to me, unless you could only get the borderless one in collector boosters in which case it does make sense and I should just take out this paragraph where I figure out something obvious and act like it’s new information. Don’t let me forget to come back and delete this.

There is a good reason I always check when a card costs less on Card Kingdom – the scrapers on EDHREC are good but only as good as the API they access. I don’t have a problem with CK or their API at all, I am just saying that sometimes something was misreported and you can catch it with a quick spot check.

Well well well, what have we here?

And there you have it. The cheapest copy actually available is $8.49 for the non-foil, regular bordered version. If this sold out on CK at $8 but is going for more on TCG, I can’t imagine that CK is going to restock the borderless version for $8.

Also, TCG’s price was a little inflated at $8.89, but perhaps not for long.

The foils under $10 are gone, and the price is a bit all over the place, but it looks like nothing is even getting listed under $7 anymore whereas a few days ago you could snag one for $6.60. It looks like this isn’t actually cheaper on CK, but it did cause us to look at a card that might be making a move. It’s a mythic, after all.

A mythic that refuses to go below $7 no matter how much product is opened. Not that anyone is opening product from 10 sets ago (they released a new set since I wrote that previous paragraph).

It’s worth looking at cards like this, too, where the TCG Price is cheaper but, like, WAY cheaper. The thing about CK is that they can charge what they charge because people know and trust them and they have a great buylist where you can purchase cards with credit and like it or not, CK is the go-to shop for a lot of EDH Players. If CK is getting away with charging $18 for this card that may or may not be good, I’ve had no time to test it.

Great googily moogily, CK believes in this card the way The Darkness Believed in a thing called love. Is TCG Player really selling this for like half price?

CK may know EDH but TCG Player knows when a graph looks like this, it’s not time to buy, yet. I don’t know if the $20 on CK is correct, it might very well not be and they might very well lower the price soon. However, I have no confidence in this card as a spec. It’s likely not nearly as useful as people predicted it would be and the price tailing off on TCG as sellers race to the bottom coincides with there not being all that much you can do with this card. It seems like a bad card, it’s ranked 11th/28 in the set, which is a 40% which is a failing grade. I think TCG Player, a site that has multiple sellers competing with each other and where the price the card sells for is still falling, has it right here. Sometimes the cheap copies are a buy if the card’s $18 (or $20!) on CK is justified. In this case, seems not.

I hope it was informative to get a view into how I look at cards and evaluate them as specs. I didn’t give you my normal 5 specs this week, but if you’re feeling froggy, why not look at the other 25 cards we didn’t talk about from Brother’s War precons and see if any of the other prices seem off. A few are under $1 and I wouldn’t bother with those – any card less than the cost of shipping isn’t going to give you accurate price comparison data. That does it for me, nerds. Thank you so much for reading my stuff. Until next time!

Tom is going to be the Bomb!

Earlier this week, we got our first taste of the Lord of the Rings set coming this summer. The One Ring has made Mind over Matter spike, there’s other combos coming, but for my money, this might be the best value-add in the set:

Tom Bombadil <showcase> [LTR]

Some cards have started to grow as a result of Tom’s preview, but there’s still a lot of planning that can be done and profits to be made when Saga-related cards start spiking in June.

A caveat here: We’re getting an Enchantment-themed preconstructed deck in Commander Masters in August, so some of these might be reprinted then, in the main LotR set, or even in a Secret Lair before then. These are the risks in the modern day, and while we can minimize the problems, sometimes a fresh wave comes along.

Power Conduit ($1.50 for the cheapest version, $22 for the most expensive) – This card has been a rollercoaster, allowing for multiple peaks and valleys as it interacts with new things.

Sagas really, really, REALLY want the ability to remove a counter. If you can remove a counter while the last chapter ability is on the stack, you won’t lose your Saga. From the Comprehensive Rules: “704.5s If the number of lore counters on a Saga permanent is greater than or equal to its final chapter number and it isn’t the source of a chapter ability that has triggered but not yet left the stack, that Saga’s controller sacrifices it. See rule 714, ‘Saga Cards.’ “

This means that we can re-use the final abilities of Sagas, as long as we can remove a counter at instant speed. Power Conduit is one way to do that, and it’ll do that for no mana, plus give you some +1/+1 counters if you’d like! I fully expect that you can buy these for under $2 for a little longer, with the goal of selling near $5.

Hex Parasite ($4 to $15) – This costs some mana, but works in the same way. 

Hex Parasite hasn’t ridden the same set of waves because it’s got a black color identity, and the only Saga commander we’ve had so far was GW. Make no mistake, though, a lot of cheap copies have already been scooped up. There’s still room for profit here, especially on the foils. I think a double-up to $30 is likely, as it was a third set rare from 2011. Barring a reprint, the supply here is tiny indeed. 

Resourceful Defense ($5 to $7) – There’s a lot of fun applications for this card, but it’s expensive to use. One thing that can happen, if you want it to, is that one Saga having its final chapter can trigger another Saga, and then a third, until all of them are done. You might enjoy those dominoes tumbling, you might not. If you have Myth Realized or MindUnbound, those are cards that would really like some spare lore counters, too. Either way, I’d expect the EA versions of this to hit at least $10, and possibly $15.

Scholar of New Horizons (both versions under $1) – This might be a great brick play, since it was in the precon retro border deck for Brothers’ War Commander. Again, we get to remove a counter and go get a Plains (note, not a basic version, so shocks/Triomes are options) because Sagas are mana hungry!

Historian’s Boon (all versions under $1) – Dominaria United Commander did have FEA versions of some cards, and that’s definitely where I want to be with these copies. The reprint risk is very high here, but at such a low buy-in, you can get a brick and not worry too much.

Chisei, Heart of Oceans ($1 to $11) – Removing a counter is generally good for Sagas, and while this isn’t at instant speed, it’s a way to keep using Sagas.

There’s other fun things that remove counters (Sanctuary Warden, Thrull Parasite) but there’s also some fun Sagas and accessories that deserve some attention too.

Hall of Heliod’s Generosity ($9 to $17) – Many copies have sold since the preview for Tom, but there’s still a lot left out there. Prices haven’t gone up much yet, and I especially think the retro foils from MH1 are the play here. It’s always good to recur your Sagas, but putting them on top is so wonderfully synergistic with Tom!

I fully expect the OBF version to hit $25, maybe even $35. A lot of copies were soaked up by other enchantment themes, and with Sagas constantly coming and going, the card will do a lot of work in this deck too.

Brilliant Restoration ($0.50 to $2) – There’s more than a few ways to bring back all enchantments at once, but this is the most recent and very inexpensive for premium versions. I generally prefer special frames over EA versions, but both of those should rise at the same rate because the two versions should have had roughly the same number printed.

Kiora Bests the Sea God ($3 to $6) – If Saga accessories are good, all the Sagas should come along as well. This is a strong candidate for a reprint soon, so I’m less eager to buy some copies, but I’m fully prepared for this to bump to $10+ if it’s not given new inventory. 

Phyrexian Scriptures ($2 to $9) – This had a List version that’s quite affordable, to go with Tom Bombadil being indestructible if you have the right amount of Sagas out on the board. Combining this and Power Conduit means you’re wiping the board every single turn, and that’s a glorious time indeed.

The Cruelty of Gix ($1 to $3) – Read Ahead is a very powerful ability with this deck, and it’s easy to imagine a scenario where the last ability is powerfully degenerate, given how Commander decks operate. These two black Sagas haven’t had a chance to shine, but I think Tom will bring out their best play patterns and really increase the prices.

The Elder Dragon War (bulk to $1) – All of these abilities are worth doing over and over again, so you decide which useful thing to repeat: pyroclasm, rummaging, or making Dragon tokens.

The Kami War ($0.50 to $2) – Again, this is a broken Saga doing broken things, and when you build the deck right you’re going to do those things on a loop! Enjoy!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Pro Trader: The Best Bad Color

Readers!

Welcome to another installment of the series “Jason writes an article.” Sometimes it is on here, sometimes on other sites, but always article. This is the 541st article I have written on MTG Price, and if that sounds bonkers to you, it is to me, also. Today I am not going to do my normal article from my perspective, fearing it might seem exactly the same from your perspective and that I have been overthinking it for 540 articles, and that’s just this site. What I think I am doing differently is that I’m going to talk about a color then the cards in that color. I don’t always do exactly that. It’s different. Shut up.

What’s the worst color in Commander? That’s right, Red, and it isn’t close. But a few years ago, people would still have said Red. But a few years before that, probably still Red. The point is, White has almost always been the second worst color, some argued the worst, because it didn’t mana ramp as hard. We have seen every possible variation on Knight of the White Orchid and by now there are two or three Archaeomancer’s Map-tier cards in White that make it keep up nicely with the Green-based ramp decks. I have seen a Demonic Tutor used as a Farseek more than once, but, sure, White is the worst at it. Black has Cabal Coffers, Green has mana dorks and Cultivate, Blue has mana dorks and Cultivate if you built correctly and added Green, and Red has Seething Song. What does White have? Well, lately, it’s had everything.

I wasn’t even going to write this specific article until I decided to look at the most-played cards in the, well the set that has most recently been fully-spoiled, I guess. We have 8 cards revealed from March of the Machine, the perfect amount of cards to have revealed before you reveal a million-dollar one-of-a-kind collectible card and a White Remand. And let’s be clear about something else – I just found out about the White Remand because I was procrastinating on twitter between paragraphs – I had no idea White got a Remand, a card that’s basically good everywhere except for EDH, until after I had started my “White gets everything these days, huh?” article. White IS getting a lot, if not everything, and one trip to EDHREC will bear that out.

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Oil-Slick for Fun and Profit

You may or may not have noticed that a certain subset of Phyrexia: All Will Be One cards has been lighting it up lately: the Oil-Slick foils, available only in the special boosters found in the Compleat Edition Bundle.

That bundle came with one special pack, along with 12 Set Boosters. That special pack is what I’m focused on right now, and let me explain why I’m starting to buy cards much earlier in the ONE cycle than I would have otherwise.

Let’s start out with some math. There’s one booster, which has ten foil lands and two foils mythics. Twenty mythics are possible, so there’s a ten percent chance of getting a specific mythic in your pack, and a 1 in 400 chance of getting a double-up. In terms of collation errors if someone landed a god pack of all mythics but no lands, that image would have been all over Twitter.

With ten percent odds, you’d think these oil-slick cards would be crazy common. After all, looking at the C2R2, no mythic with special treatment is at even one percent odds to come out of a Collector Booster. These special Bundles are, well, special. Special expensive and special rare. Vendors report that they haven’t been able to get all they wanted, and the bundles are reselling nicely on all the platforms. Oil-Slick foils are rarer than the special variants, and rarer than the step-and-compleat foils as well, just due to the lack of bundles out there. 

Getting 12 Set Boosters is good, but a pack of 10 lands that are going for at least $4 each is a great bit of value, on top of the two mythics. 

Oil-Slick has a big advantage over the variants from the CBs: the Collector Boosters are going to be available for quite a while yet. Months, perhaps years, at a very reasonable price. The Compleat bundles are getting a big markup and lots of these cards are disappearing into collections, which will eventually lead to prices going up.

I don’t think we’ll ever see any of the big cracking operations pop up with a couple hundred copies of any Oil-Slick mythic, and once the current wave of bundles is gone, that’s probably most of the inventory that will ever be available. So right now, I think prices are at their lowest, and it’s time to get some copies. Definitely personal-use copies for any of your decks, plus a couple of extras for later growth.

There’s only 20 to choose from, so this isn’t a comprehensive list, but here’s the stars I see:

Sword of Forge and Frontier ($45 right now on TCGPlayer) – If you haven’t played with this card yet, it’s pretty bonkers. It’s hard to argue with the simplicity of just ‘draw a card’ but this is potentially better in Commander. I’m a huge fan of Sword of the Animist, and the 9th entry in the Sword cycle is a very elegant design. It’ll be rare in a pod for there to be no one you can hit, and once the hits start, they will keep coming. 

My biggest concern is that there will inevitably be a retro foil version of this at some point, but that’s probably a ways off. For now, you’re going to see copies soaked up relatively fast, and this version will be $60 before the end of April.

Ichormoon Gauntlet ($35) – You will be hard-pressed to find a more auto-include card for planeswalker superfriends decks. This is the best version of a very good card, before the ‘add a counter’ ability is overlooked. It doesn’t take much for this to get out of hand quickly. I fully expect to see the supply on these dwindle fast, and the price to go up accordingly.

All Will Be One ($19) – I’ve said before that this is a card I want to have when the combos pop up. There’s a LOT of amazing things you can do with this card, and no wrong way to play it. Sure there’s instant win combos, such as Quest for Pure Flame, but there’s also fun with planeswalkers, proliferate, or cards that put counters everywhere.

AWBO will be a cheaper pickup in nonfoil, if you want to wait, but since supply is near maximum right now I strongly advocate grabbing a few copies for the inevitable rise. When this hits, it’ll hit big, easily doubling in price.

Solphim, Mayhem Dominus ($20) – Finally, while all of the Dominus cards are good in their respective decks, the red one begs to be built around, and is in the best color to do it. There will be combos with this card, my favorite being Heartless Hidetsugu and my second favorite is Toralf, God of Fury. (Honorable mention: Manabarbs. stings) Wonderfully, though, you don’t need to work too hard at this. Anything that deals damage is going to be a winner, with the added bonus that every new set will give new ways to abuse the card. I’m looking forward to watching this grow over time.

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

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