The Mana Math of Aetherdrift

Welcome back to a new set, and a new group of calculations. Aetherdrift has a new type of booster for us to unpack, a single serialized card, and another batch of sweet, sweet, Fracture Foils. 

Let’s get into what you can open and what you might get when you crack one of these packs. 

Box Toppers are back! These are two-card packs, found in Play Booster boxes, Collector Booster boxes, and the Finish Line bundles. You’re going to get one of ten different lands (75% driver’s perspective, 25% full-art panorama, and one of 84 different rares or 43 mythics, a total of 127 options.

It’s possible that the panorama foils might become expensive down the line, but I’ve found that basics are no longer worth it, generally speaking. There’s just too many sweet options, and each new awesome one makes the others harder to go up in price. We get occasional exceptions, but even things like the Oil-Slick lands have taken forever to go up a buck or two. Just better to put your money someplace else.

The First-Place Foils have the distinction of looking like terrible Pokemon cards, thanks to the yellow outline on the posted photos, but the videos Wizards posted look pretty cool, so I’ll forgive them. The second slot of a Box Topper pack has a lot of options, which calls for a table: 

Right away, I want you to see that 7 of 10 packs have a regular rare card. We’re already off to a killer start with that, but the rates go up from there. The First-Place Foil version of the Special Guests is a mega-rare pull, being at 714 of these packs to get a single copy. You get ONE Box Topper pack per box (Play, Collector, or Finish Line) so please, if you open something good make sure you get a good price.

I’ll be curious to see if folks realize what difficult pulls these particular foils are, there may well be some underpricing going on early.

Let’s get to the nonfoils, of which there are two slots, so we have an extra column for the doubling up. 

Note: Wizards doesn’t want to just say how many of each treatment there are in an easy way, spreading out the information over the whole page, and if I find new ones revealed on Jan. 31 or later, I’ll update these numbers. 

The nonfoil special versions are about right, providing some solid numbers for those who don’t like the shiny, warping cards. Especially with two slots, there will be plenty of these to go around. 

Now, for the foil slot at the end of the pack.

Yup, you’re reading that right. Fracture Foils at 1500/3000 packs is in line with the last two sets. They’ve clearly got a ratio they like, and going by the prices of most Fracture Foils, the players agree. 

Please remember that you’re 1/1000 to get any Fracture Foil, but because two-thirds of those are English-language and one-third is Japanese-language, that’s where the 1500 and 3000 come from. 

What jumps out at me from these tables is the Special Guests. That’s been a rare enough thing in the Collector Boosters, but considering that it takes 714 Box Topper packs to get a particular First-Place SPG, but only 238 Collector Boosters, I’ll be keeping an eye on the relative prices of those cards. If those are close to the same price, it would be a data point about how many boxes (and Finish Line boxes) are sold compared to how many Collector Booster packs are opened. It’s a little scary that 238 x 3 is exactly 714, and that made me go back and check my assorted math. 

The rest of it is in line with previous sets, so any big spikes or dips will be due to demand, not a change in collation. Please notice that the Mana Foil is no longer there, which was a good midway between the Borderless art and the Japan Showcases.

Now, to talk about the serialized Aetherspark. Wizards is probably aware that they made a mistake when they gave us precise odds for serialized cards, as in Lord of the Rings, because that let us know what the total number in circulation was, a data point that they haven’t really replicated.

Here’s a table for your odds, varying the number of packs printed:

The $120 is an estimate of what the distributors pay for the average Collector Booster box, and that’s the sales that Wizards cares about. Again, these are estimates, and if I get better data I can give a more precise number, but we think that you’ve got to open something like 6,000 packs to get a serialized Aetherspark. 

Remember, statistics are an overall view. There will undoubtedly be people who open two serialized Aethersparks within 500 boosters, and others who open 10,000 Collector Boosters and get none. 

I hope this math is helpful for you, and helps in your buying and opening decisions. If you want to talk about my methods or errors, please reach out to me on Twitter, Bluesky, or in the ProTrader Discord.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

The Good and The Bad Of Innistrad Remastered Release Weekend

Today, Innistrad Remastered is live on all the sites, for buying and for selling. No longer are we stuck with ‘preorder’ pricing, which tends to be super high and moves very slowly, now individuals can get in on the action, undercutting each other and other websites.

If you look at eBay, there’s a lot of stuff already selling, some with a preorder tag and some where the cards are in hand, but those are not the same quantity as TCGPlayer. Especially this weekend, the prices ought to move pretty fast as people seek to unload quickly. We’ve learned from Ravnica Remastered that holding for a long time is going to be unprofitable for almost everything, so let’s see where things are, and identify what might go up from here. 

It’s worth noting that reprint sets like this are supposed to lower the prices of the cards in the set, at least for the basic copies. Wizards has figured out that they can do two things at once: First, make the regular frame foils and nonfoils cheaper, and at the same time, make new premium versions which should sell well. Generally speaking, we see that’s true with last year’s Ravnica Remastered, and before that, Dominaria Remastered. 

The base versions of cards reprinted in those sets have fallen and mostly haven’t recovered. There’s a few exceptions, Cyclonic Rift being the standout, but things like Force of Will, which hasn’t been reprinted in the two years since, still hasn’t recovered. (To be fair, Force is up a few bucks in the last four months but it’s still not above $60, when it was $100+ before the DMR reprint) 

Ravnica Remastered is a fantastic example of the concept of both making base cards cheap (and therefore accessible to a wider range of players) and premium versions pricey. The serialized shocks are all over $250, with Steam Vents closing in on a grand. At the other end, the basic nonfoils from the set are all under $15 except for shocklands, Bruvac, and Cyclonic Rift. 

That’s the model I’m expecting for Innistrad Remastered cards. 

We already have some data for cards dropping in price, and like I said, I expect a lot more of this over the weekend. Prices are current as of late Thursday night as time zones allow the preorders to unlock. 

Emrakul, the Promised End is now $38 when EMN base copies were $63 in September 2024. 

Edgar Markov is $55 for the nonfoil (the first nonfoil!) when the C17 foils were $90 in October 2024.

The Meathook Massacre is $29 when MID copies were $55 in October 2024.

This trend is prevalent among basically everything that is in Innistrad Remastered, and if you want to buy basic copies, you should wait patiently. There is a lot of price drop coming, for the regulars and for most of the premium versions as well. 

The card most likely to pull a Cyclonic Rift is The Meathook Massacre. It’s at the right confluence of rarity and EDH demand, but it’s niche enough to avoid being reprinted again in the next 12 months or so. (Probably, anyway, because Wizards’ reprint policy can charitably be described as ‘mystifying’.) Meathook is in 127,000 decks on EDHREC, which is quite good for its age and rarity. EDHREC is a database where only the most devoted players upload their lists, so remember that the more casual players don’t add their decks. Casual players are also likely why the card has been expensive for its whole lifespan, even after it was banned from Standard. For comparison’s sake, Cyclonic Rift is at 688,000 decks, so more than 5x as popular despite multiple printings. 

I expect Meathook to drop below $20 sometime in the next couple of months, and that’s when I will want to move back in. 

One of the things that I’m not as excited to buy are the lands. The ‘slow lands’ have been reprinted in the Dr. Who set, and got both EA and Surge Foil EA versions there, to go with the original set’s Borderless and then Double Feature had the Silver Screen versions. We’re looking at a wide mix of premiums, and a whole lot more of the basic copies. These will languish like a lot of other land cycles have, and while getting in for $3 or even $2 a copy is an attractive idea, given the Commander popularity, it’s very easy to imagine these getting another reprint before too long.

There is a card that is set up to fall like a rock and almost immediately rebound: the Borderless foil of Rooftop Storm. Aetherdrift has two Commander decks, one with an artifacts/energy subtheme, and an Esper Zombies list. I would not be surprised if Rooftop Storm was in the deck, but that’s a basic nonfoil. We’re about to see a number of Zombie cards pop off, and this is one of the greatest reasons to sleeve up the undead, making the deck free and your Commander cost less. (Still gotta pay the Commander Tax!)

Currently, foil Borderless versions are at $5.50 and falling, plus today the whole Zombie decklist is revealed, making a perfect storm of potential.

Finally, I want to make a point about the Movie Poster cards. These are awesome and iconic, gorgeous pieces of art melded with great design. I will be happy to get these cards. 

These are not going to be super-expensive cards, though.

Back in the Mana Math of INR, we went over how it takes 100 Collector Boosters to get a foil copy of a certain Movie Poster card, or fifty to get a nonfoil. If INR is printed at the same rate as Lord of the Rings: Holiday Edition, that’s 1.5 million Collector Boosters. A little division, and we get the total number of copies at 15,000 foils and 30,000 nonfoils.

I think the number of packs is greater than 1.5 million, putting the copies higher and higher. Plus, with that many movie copies out there, we can do some comparisons that may cause wincing. Remember how Meathook is in 127k decks? Well, Guardian Project is in 200k, and there’s a xxx/500 serialized foil of that available for $115 on TCGPlayer. The current price of $100 for the Showcase foils is far too high. If you want these sweet shiny cards, be patient and you’ll save a lot.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Three Ways TCGPlayer’s System Loses Us Money

A lot of us use the TCGPlayer site to buy and sell cards, frequently reselling cards on that site that we bought from them. Their fees are not unreasonable, and while some of us are exclusive to eBay for selling, it’s generally true that the more people who see your item, the more likely it is to sell. (Presuming that it’s priced at a level where it would sell, anyway.)

However, TCGPlayer has made some specific choices in their user interface that lead to less people seeing your item, and we need to be aware of these cases. Not just because it costs money, but because these might be cases where selling on a different platform is a much more profitable choice.

I’m not saying this to denigrate TCGPlayer or the service it provides. I use them a lot, both for buying and selling, and I appreciate the task they are facing. Hundreds of thousands of cards, frames, foiling, and conditions, plus the vagaries of shipping, taxes, and the Direct service…it’s a tremendous logistical challenge! I also really like their new data, for 1M/3M/6M/12M and knowledge of copies selling per day. These are things I wish they would improve, for everyone’s sake.

So let’s get into three big things you need to be aware of with TCGPlayer, which might be costing you profits.

If you’re a regular listener of MTG Fast Finance (and why aren’t you, it’s a great show, and we have the data to back it up) we’ve mentioned some of these concepts but we haven’t really set it all down together in this way. I’m collecting this information, combining it, making it simple for you to keep in mind

TCGPlayer doesn’t list all versions under ‘show all versions.’

This probably isn’t groundbreaking to you at this point, but TCGPlayer made the choice as the Collector Booster era hit us to list every version with a different frame, or a different foiling, as a separate product page. Here’s an example with Banner of Kinship, a card which has regular frame, Extended Art, and Borderless Art. Each of those has a foil, plus the Borderless has a Mana Foil treatment. 

All told, that’s seven versions to keep track of. TCGPlayer has four listings for the card. If you type in Banner Of in the search bar, here’s what you get:

This is forgivable, but here’s the core issue with this choice. If I click the first result, I can only see two of those options: the original frame and the Prerelease foil. Worse yet, if I click on the original frame, and I click on ‘all versions’ I can only see the original frames. The only way to get to the premium versions is to know exactly which premium version I want, and type that into the search bar.

The egregious offense here is that a potential buyer, on the biggest card-selling platform in North America, cannot see all the versions side by side. TCGPlayer does allow you to see regular and prerelease foil side by side, along with all the reprinted versions, so why not give players ALL the options? Makes no sense.

TCGPlayer hides other languages by default, even if other languages are opened in English packs.

In Foundations and in Duskmourn, players can open a Collector Booster and get a Fracture Foil. One in three Fracture Foils in English packs are Japanese-language cards, the same as you would get in Japanese-language packs. 

They are the same card, pulled from the same pack, and have a similar number of copies in circulation when you take into account Japanese-language packs having 100% chance for Japanese-language Fracture Foils. 

But for TCGPlayer, the default language choice is English, and that means to find these copies, which are just as pretty, you have to go in and add Japanese to the languages you’re viewing. As a result, these copies move slower and go for cheaper. For this card, Enduring Courage, you’re looking at about $90 for the English version but half that for the Japanese version. Similar gaps exist for the other cards with this set of treatments, and you can save a lot of money if you want these cards. For instance, if you’re hungering for the anime Llanowar Elves, the English will run you about $425, but the Japanese can be had for $80 less. 

And if you happen to pull a Japanese version, do yourself a favor and list it on eBay instead. You’ll make more money. It’s close to being arbitrage worthy, where I’m telling you to buy on TCG the Enduring Courage for $50 and sell it on eBay for $75 (which is something you could do right now), but if the gap widens much more, then the taxes, shipping, and fees won’t be prohibitive and you will indeed turn a profit.

Cheap price + high shipping + multiple copies = low profit

Let’s use an example of a card, the promo pack Infernal Grasp. The cheapest NM nonfoil is $1.86+$1.27 for shipping, a total of $3.11. People want their versions to match, so you want to get four, and this is where people mess up. They want their copies to show up as cheap, but add a high shipping cost, so you can get more money per sale. But then they make a costly mistake: They list a bunch of copies at once.

Here’s three vendors who have multiples of the same nonfoil promo, and all of whom are trying this game of high shipping. 

At a glance, it looks like a killing, selling this card for at least double. But when you spread out the shipping, the bonus vanishes. Sure, the top one is $6.47 if someone buys a single copy, but if someone buys four, that’s $11.21 total. Per card, that’s $2.80, less than the person who listed a single copy at the cheapest price!

If I were to buy these as a spec (which I wouldn’t, though the new Borderless is intriguing) and get all ten, I’m in for $2.43 a copy before taxes.I get why people put a big shipping cost–they want to make sure that every order is worth at least a certain amount. But if you follow that practice, and lower your prices to keep up, then list lots of copies, you can lose money per copy.

This is only a problem when all three conditions are met, and if you avoid any one of the three, you’ll be fine. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Innistrad Remastered Is Revealed!

Innistrad Remastered has been fully revealed, and the set is a combination of amazing frames, needed reprints, and underwhelming choices. We’ve been semi-promised no Masters/Remastered sets after this for a while, but nothing is locked in. Wizards is free to do what they want, even if there was no particular demand for most of these cards, they really wanted to do the Dominaria, the Ravnica, and now the Innistrad Remastered.

Wizards made some choices here, and while I would have made different ones, I’m not in charge. So let’s review what is going on, and we can make some choices about this set, as well as some plans. 

Let’s start with my favorite thing about this set: The Borderless Movie Poster Frames.

These are gorgeous and then some, and while some of these treatments have languished after Secret Lair printings, the layout and design here is top-notch. These range from popular Commander cards (Cathars’ Crusade at 128k decks on EDHREC) to Modern archetypes (Through the Breach) and even Griselbrand, who gets reanimated now and then. 

What I don’t like here is how often some of these have gotten reprints. Avacyn has a borderless foil from Double Masters. Gitrog has a Judge Foil and a Secret Lair version. Griselbrand has had a couple of special printings despite being banned early on in his Commander career. It’s one thing to cash in on reprint equity, but they are hitting these cards hard. 

Also, as a personal note, I tend to concede when the Crusade comes down. I anticipate death comes soon after, but it’s the ten minutes of adding counters I can’t stand. Play it on Arena or MTGO sure, but if it’s not automatic, I no longer care. 

There are other Borderless cards in the set, but I feel it’s important to go over the math on those and the Movie Posters too.

Nonfoil cards: 

Foil cards:

Like I said, compared to other recent sets, INR has relatively easy pulls. You need to open ten times the packs needed to get a Fracture Foil compared to a Movie Poster!

The only things harder to pull than a Movie card are the six mythics: Borderless Temporal Mastery, Borderless Cultivator Colossus, Borderless Sorin, Imperious Bloodlord, (who is banned in Pioneer), Equinox Arlinn Kord, and Fang frames for Edgar Markov and Bloodline Keeper. 

It’s also worth mentioning that one of the most popular casual cards in the set is Infernal Grasp, and we can bring up that math too: 2.5% to get a foil borderless, 5% to get a nonfoil. That’s 1/40 and 1/20 chances at the Infernal Grasp, which is in 185k Commander decks online.

The Retro Frame cards in this set are neat, but that treatment is a bit underwhelming. If the card is already popular, that’s good, but I have a hard time seeing most of the INR cards holding a price. For comparison, in Ravnica Remastered, the only retro frame nonfoils with a price above $10 are the ten shocklands, Cyclonic Rift, and Bruvac the Grandiloquent. I do not have high hopes for INR’s retro foils.

Underwhelming is really the keyword for a lot of this set. For instance, the slowlands from MID and VOW are mega-popular in Commander, but those got no special treatment at all. Just regular and foil, not even a retro frame. Sure, they already had sweet versions in the original set and in Double Feature, but if you’re a reprint set…use your reprints!

These packs are going to be tremendously swingy, as several people on the ProTrader Discord have pointed out. Movie Poster Emrakul in foil will be an impressively expensive card, but that same slot might get you a showcase Arilinn Kord for $5. I always advocate against buying single packs and opening them, even with the dopamine high that you get. This set is going to be one of the strongest examples of the phenomenon, given that the packs are more expensive than usual.

It’s well known that Ravnica Remastered did not sell up to its expectations. Innistrad Remastered has pretty low expectations, and seems to be selling decently. We’ll see what these prices do, but around the beginning of summer, I’ll be on the lookout for a few specific cards:

Foil Borderless Rooftop Storm: As a Zombie enthusiast, this enchantment is one of the best things you can be doing. I want a big stack of these for when Zombies have their time in the sun again.

The Slowlands: These were expensive during their heyday in Standard, and the premium versions still are. I’d be looking to get a few of each when the regular nonfoil is at its lowest price, just for the Commander appeal.

Movie Poster Hermit Druid: The combos are many, and they are deadly. This will get impressively cheap in the regular frame, but considering the combo players, I’ll want a few of these in reserve. 

Foil Borderless Conjurer’s Closet: Commander players love a good flicker, putting this in 100k decks. This is clearly the best version, and should get impressively cheap.

Finally, I want to go over a few Vampire specs that have potential right now. We saw Dragon cards spike somewhat when The Ur-Dragon was made cheap, and we’re about to see that with Edgar Markov, one of the top ten all-time Commanders. 

Edgar, Charmed Groom – I especially like the Dracula version here, because he’s a lord, he makes tokens, and he’s tough to kill. Should be one of the first Vampires to pop off as people get their hands on a cheap copy of Edgar Markov and get to building.

Malakir Bloodwitch – I own a few foils from before VOW was printed, and I bought in at much too high a price. I’ve played enough Vampire decks to know how good this effect is, and if you can copy it, even better. What should Gray Merchant have all the fun?

Vampire Nocturnus – A big throwback, this card is unfairly fun even if it’s only active something like 40% of the time. 

Elenda, the Dusk Rose – There’s more than one special version to choose from, but you’d have to have an odd build of a deck to leave her out. Grab what’s cheap while it’s cheap.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY