PROTRADER: PT Shadows Prep

April 22, 2016 Ross Lennon 7 Comments

Hey, happy Pro Tour Weekend! There is a lot to be really excited about going into this event- a new Standard format, a promising draft environment, and, because it’s in Spain, players will get an hour nap break in between formats!

In reality, this weekend is actually a bigger deal than you might even think. This is our first Standard Pro Tour in the new Standard system that touches on 3 separate blocks (although the Fall 2016 set¹ will be the first one to cleanly incorporate the new structure, as DTK and Khans will be gone).Even though we have already had two Standard weekends courtesy of SCG, this format feels largely undefined. Standard right now is a lot like the American presidential election- people are over-valuing the recent performance of aggressive white humans.

There is lots of price information to suggest that there are other decks likely to see play at the event, but it’s important to explain WHY white is unlikely to perform as it has in the past. First, the Pro Tour and any Star City event (including the Invitational) have a starkly diverse player base- the range in individual player quality is higher at a Pro Tour, but that’s largely because the Invitational is comprised mostly of players in the middle of the quality spectrum. The Pro Tour attendees, particularly after being weighted by Day Two participation, tend to skew towards much stronger, more experienced players. Strong players, especially ones with long resumes, are often more likely to slot into the control role, because that is the best way to leverage play skill against weaker opponents. At a Pro Tour, you are more likely to see control decks, even if they are a smaller percentage of the format as a whole, because this event is not comprised of Magic players as a wholly random sample.

For this reason, it’s difficult to discern what is actionable information for the future of the standard format, and what is just good for this weekend. On a granular level, some things that don’t really impact Magic finance are likely to fit into this category- I’d be much more comfortable having maindeck Duress at a Pro Tour than at an Open or an FNM, although Duress is unlikely to have a serious price change if it turns out to be a highly played card this weekend.

Let’s talk about some cards that ARE getting hyped going into this weekend:

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Pro Tour Coverage

Pro Tour Shadows Over Innistrad (Draft/Modern): Standard Day 1

April 22, 2016 James Chillcott 4 Comments

Check out our Pro Tour preview over here, and join us for round to round coverage in live blog style below all day.

Round 8: Brad Nelson, on G/R Goggles, is the only other undefeated player at 8-0. Pyromancer’s Goggles could easily climb if this deck makes Top 8, having demonstrated usefulness in multiple shells. Could end up over $15, supply is low.

Round 8: LSV (BG Aristocrats) vs. Valentin Mackl (Bant Company)

In game 1, LSV only hits a Catacomb Sifter on his first Collected Company, but does manage to get a Nantuko Husk in play the turn after. Zullaport Cutthroat joins the team while Mackl fields a bevy of his value creatures to try and create the pressure necessary to keep Luis off of his combo. A mid-game Westvale Abbey activation gets the dangerous demon With many portions of this deck under $1, Cryptolith Rite and Liliana, Heretical Healer may absorb the spike potential.

Game 2 finds a similar board state, with LSV’s deck outpacing the board presence of the Bant Company deck. With Mackl’s relative lack of removal, LSV is free to pursue his flood and sacrifice plans, and Mackl falls to the only 8-0 record of the day.

Michael Majors (U/W Humans) vs. Christian Calcano (Bant Company)

The players split the first two games. In Game 3 Majors has three copies of Always Watching on the table, making his army of white creatures fairly menacing to Calcano on 4 life, despite the presence of both Nissa and Jace in planeswalker mode and set of reasonable blockers. Calcano manages to stabalize, and as time is called he finds a Tragic Arrogance off the top to clear out the board, including two of the Always Watching copies. Calcano keeps a Lumbering Falls, a Sylvan Advocate and his Nissa, Sage Animist vs. a Thraben Inspector and a single Always Watching. Swinging in Calcano thinks he has it, but Avacyn off the top for Majors leads to a definitive block and Majors is able to take the game on the crack back! Majors goes to 7-1.

Deck Tech #4: Adam Jensen (Mardu Control)

This deck is running four copies of Goblin Dark Dwellers to leverage the many removal spells, Read the Bones and Transgress the Mind.

Round 7: LSV (BG Aristocrats) vs. Jeremy Dezani (Abzan Company)

LSV’s deck uses Cryptolith Rite to good effect, being able to tap his creatures for mana, and then sacrifice them to double up. Sexy. Both sides are also on Collected Company, which may well be the card of the tournament. LSV goes over the top on Turn 5 (!) with Ormendahl off of Westvale Abbey and Dezani packs it in for Game 1. In Game 2 LSV swarms the board again and is able to sac his board to Natuko Husk with two copies of Zulaport Cutthroat in play to take the match.

Justin Cohen (BG Aristocrats) vs. Katsuhiro Mori (Bant Company) is our second feature match this round.

Brad Nelson (RG Goggle Ramp) vs. Christian Calcano (Bant Company)

Nelson takes Game 1 off camera. In Game 2 Nelson gets a Dragonlord Atarka on the table, cleans up the board and starts attacking. During the next combat, Nelson casts Fall of the Titans twice (!) off the Pyromancer’s Goggles, surged for a ton and takes the match, moving to 7-0.

Samuel Tharmaratnam (Mardu Control) vs. Kentaro Yamamoto (Bant Company)

Here we have our first appearance on camera of Nahiri, the Harbinger on camera, alongside Livala, the Preserver out of Samuel’s deck. As we come into the match, the players are tied 1-1. Linvala goes toe to toe with a mid-game Avacyn, the board goes clear, and Samuel follows through with a Chandra, Flamecaller and a Goblin Dark Dwellers to reverse the pressure. An awakened Ruinous Path kills Yamamoto’s remaining creature and Tharmaratnam goes to 6-1.

After Round 6, only Dezani, Sochurek, Nelson, Mackl, LSV and Calcano are at 6-0.

Deck Tech #2: Eduardo Sajgalik: Demonic Tentacles

Brand new deck archetype on display using Crush of Tentacles, Demonic Pact and Dark Petition and a bunch of kill spells to control the board and grind out the opponent’s life. Also runs 4 copies of Oath of Jace. Dark Petition has already popped, but keep an eye on Demonic Pact.

Round 6: Valentin Mackl (Bant Company) vs. Shota Yasooka (Esper Dragons)

Coming into the weekend Bant Company was definitely the deck to beat, with a list that applies pressure and grinds with the best of them. Yasooka is on Esper Dragons in an attempt to control the aggro decks, and dictate the pace of the mid to late game. Sylvan Advocate and Avacyn doing the expected level of work. Shota notables include Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy, Ob Nixilis Reignited, Dragonlord Ojutai and Languish.

In Game 1 a timely Dromoka’s Command puts Shota on the back foot, and he falls to the onslaught of violence from Den Protector and Sylvan Advocate.

In Game 2 Yasooka uses Dragonlord Silumgar to steal a buff Tireless Tracker and beats face in a tempo swing that sees Mackl fold his hand a couple of turns later. Game 3 shows off the power of both builds, with Mackl leveraging Reflector Mage, Avacyn, Nissa and Sylvan Advocate to keep Yasooka on the defensive. Nissa buffs the team, and makes Languish ineffectual from Yasooka. The game grinds on, but an incorrect flip trigger on Avacyn ends up leading to an overwhelming game state in favor of Mackl, who moves to 6-0.

Round 6: LSV (BG Aristocrats) vs. Jon Finkel (BG Ramp)

LSV jumps out to an early start and takes Game 1 from one of the greats of the game. In Game 2, Finkel has trouble finding action and LSV goes to 6-0 to start the tournament.

Deck Tech: Craig Wescoe on Mono White Humans

Wescoe breaks down the desire for multiple buff options in the deck, explaining the shift to three copies of Anafenza, King-Tree Spirit to complement the full four copies of Always Watching. Also running four copies of Declaration of Stone.

Dark Petition is also being bought out, having spiked over $8 from $1.50. Will be interesting to see if it can hold that level by generating top table results this weekend. As a potential Modern, Legacy and Vintage card, foils are still available under $10.

Round 5: Seth Mansfield (Esper Control) vs. Jon Finkel (GB Ramp)

Johnny Magic takes game 1 on the back of Nissa’s Renewal, referring to the card as the current Sphinx’s Revelation, a card that similarly drew cards and gained life a few years back. Mansfield’s deck includes Narset Transcendent and Sphinx of the Final Word. Various cards from the Finkel deck are already spiking on Magic Online, including Tireless Tracker, Dark Petition, The Gitrog Monster, Traverse the Ulvenwald and World Breaker. Look for similar moves in paper if the deck proves its value deeper in the tournament.

Team Eureka is on a GR ramp brew with Pyromancer’s Goggles.

Seasons Past is being bought out as Finkel takes Game 2 and the match.

Off camera Brad Nelson on GR Ramp closes out a game by doing over twenty damage with Fall of the Titans in the presence of a Pyromancer’s Goggles.

Shota Yasooka (Esper Dragons) takes down his opponent on GB Aristocrats.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Uncategorized

Pro Tour Shadows Over Innistrad (Draft/Modern): Preview

April 22, 2016 James Chillcott 1 Comment

In the stunning city of Madrid, Spain an excellent weekend of Magic: The Gathering Pro Tour action is in motion. Coming off the results of the last couple of weeks on the SCG circuit, the pros have been tasked with addressing a Standard metagame that has so far been dominated by Wx Aggro and Bant Collect Company decks. Quick starts, and curve toppers Archangel Avacyn and Archangel of Tithes have made answering the aggressive decks difficult, as has the lack of definitive and timely sweeper spells. Nevertheless, after weeks of secretive testing, the top pro teams from across the globe have gathered for another epic quest to take home the trophy. With over $250,000 USD on the line, and the winner taking home a hefty $40,000, players will be hard pressed to overcome the deep pool of talent.

The Pro Tour, of course, requires players to succeed in a mixed schedule of booster draft (SOI – SOI – SOI) and constructed play (Standard in this case) with 3 rounds of draft Friday morning, followed by 5 rounds of Standard starting around 7am EST.

For the MTG Finance community, the question of the day is which decks will rise to dominance today in a field that has seemed close to being solved fairly early on.

Will any of the pros find a way to unlock a new archetype with game against the known field? Will an underplayed deck from the previous weeks results suddenly end up perfectly positioned after adding a few new pieces of tech? Will there be a chance to get in on a must-have card that shows early promise or will the hype train leave the bandwagon speculators out in the cold without buyers come Monday morning?

Thus far Shadows Over Innistrad has behave a bit oddly vs. other sets from the last few years, with a full ten rares and mythics holding price tags over $10 a couple of weeks after the set first hit the streets. Archangel Avacyn is the current queen of the format, commanding a consistent $45 at retail, and showing up as a 2-of to 4-of in many of the best performing deck lists. Declaration in Stone is going for $15, an incredible value for a rare kill spell in this format. Meanwhile, much hyped rares Thing in the Ice and Westvale Abbey have peak in the high teens only to fall back towards $10.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards most likely to make a move this weekend.

Cards to Watch

With many Shadows Over Innistrad cards already commanding unsustainable price tags, most of the speculation potential lies this weekend should reside in cards that have yet to make an impact. Here are a few of the interesting cards on our radar this weekend:

Arlinn Kord: Stuck on the bench?

Despite plenty of early excitement from the Werewolf fans, Arlinn has mostly been left out of the action thus far at the top tables of Standard. With white set up as the de facto best color in the format, and other top decks configured to run Bant or Izzet color schemes, the green/red planeswalker has struggled to make an impact. The winning GR deck at the SCG Standard Open last weekend failed to field a single copy of Arlinn. At $20, a failure to make waves this weekend should set Arlinn on a path to collapse back towards $10. Plan accordingly, but keep any eye out for a list in the top ranks that runs multiple copies, perhaps in the form of a Jund mid-range list alongside the Gitrog Monster ($6), which could likewise top $10 on a successful showing this weekend.

Current Price: $20
Predicted Price May 1st: $14
Odds to Top 8: 20 to 1

Nahiri, the Harbinger: Time to Shine?

On the other side of the numbers we have a planeswalker that may turn out to be much better than anticipated. Already popping up in lists like KikiChord in Modern as a 2-of, there is every reason to believe that there may be a configuration in Standard that wants to run multiple copies into a trophy position. If that were to go down, Nahiri could easily swap prices with Arlinn Kord and provide savvy speculators with a potential double up.

Current Price: $10
Predicted Price May 1st: $14
Odds to Top 8: 6 to 1

Sylvan Advocate: Ubiquitous on 2?

Once available for $2, many players utterly missed how powerful and important a 2-drop that became a Tarmogoyf in the mid-game would be in Standard. The bonus this elf gives your creature lands is just the icing on the cake. This Oath of the Gatewatch rare has already topped $5, but a dominant showing in 50% of the Top 8 decks might be enough to push demand up towards $10 as players conceed to the necessity of running three or four copies.

Current Price: $5
Predicted Price May 1st: $8
Odds to Top 8: 4 to 3

Jace, Vrin’s Prodigy: Can He Hold the Line?

Player consensus a few weeks into the new Standard seems to be that Jace isn’t as good in a format without fetchlands and without popular decks capable of filling graveyards quickly. That being said, he is still showing up in both UR Goggles builds as well as in some Bant Company lists. The real question however is whether Jace will be able to hold a $70 price tag heading into rotation in the fall. My gut says the card will fall to $40 or so in late summer, bouncing back over $50 within the year. As such, if you have non-foils you aren’t playing, you may want to think about trading out now, and getting back in down the road. Foils may also show weakness this year, but as the card is playable all the way back to vintage, you can likely hold those for the long term without much fear.

Current Price: $70
Predicted Price May 1st: $65
Odds to Top 8: 5 to 1

Archangel Avacyn: Still Flying High?

Avacyn has started this season off as the most feared creature in the format, a flying beater that can mess with combat, save the team, clear the board and certainly finish the game. At $45, she is certainly priced for continued success, so if the metagame managed to swerve around her and keep her from the top tables, her price would be prone to a slide. Given what we’ve seen so far however, white is the color of the season, and the odds are very good that Avacyn will earn her keep in the Top 8.

Current Price: $45
Predicted Price May 1st: $40
Odds to Top 8: 3 to 2

Demonic Pact: Ready to Rogue?

This card has jumped by 100% this week on Magic Online, and rumor has it that an Esper enchantments list running four copies of this powerful mythic alongside multiple copies of Starfield of Nyx has been testing well. I would be surprised to see more than a handful of notable pros run a deck like this, but no one saw UR Eldrazi coming at PT Oath of the Gatewatch either. As a $2 mythic, strong performances into Day 2 on camera could easily trigger rampant speculation, pushing this card over $6. Starfield of Nyx is available under $3, and is an easy favorite to top $10 down the road on casual demand in enchantment flavored decks. I like Starfield as a pickup immediately, and will be ready to move in if Pact shows up on camera this weekend.

Current Price: $2
Predicted Price May 1st: $4
Odds to Top 8: 20 to 1

Stay tuned for Round by Round MTGFinance coverage of Pro Tour: Shadows Over Innistrad all weekend!

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Casual Fridays

Money in the Box?

April 22, 2016 Cliff Daigle 5 Comments

Well, Shadows over Innistrad is here, and while I have been wrong about a lot of things, I want to look at one of my most cherished ideas and see if that’s even applicable this time around: Not opening packs/boxes.

There’s 59 rares and 18 mythics, and that counts the double-faced cards. There’s not any strong or official information out there regarding the relative rarity of the double-faced mythics as opposed to regular mythics, but since two of the three double-face mythics are two of the three most expensive cards in the set, maybe there’s something to that.

It’s time look at some cold numbers.

Here’s all the cards currently that have a Fair Trade Price over $2.50. I’m using that as a general cutoff, that means the box price is $90. I know you can beat that price, but that is a pretty optimistic box price.

Just in case you’re curious, though, I’ll note when we pass the MSRP of $4 and when we get to $3, which puts a box at $108, a better price than stores will give yet slightly higher than TCG.

Card Name and Fair Trade Price

Archangel Avacyn $57.49

Sorin, Grim Nemesis $23.99

Arlinn Kord $23.64

Declaration in Stone $17.99

Jace, Unraveler of Secrets ">Jace, Unraveler of Secrets $13.73

Westvale Abbey $12.73

Thing in the Ice $12.35

Relentless Dead $12.05

Olivia, Mobilized for War $11.85

Nahiri, the Harbinger $11.60

The Gitrog Monster $8.23

Tireless Tracker $7.23

Thalia’s Lieutenant $6.98

Mindwrack Demon $5.64

Ulvenwald Hydra $5.64

Anguished Unmaking $5.58

Startled Awake $5.14

Foreboding Ruins ">Foreboding Ruins $4.53

Sigarda, Heron’s Grace $4.38

Traverse the Ulvenwald $4.19

Port Town $4.17

Under MSRP

Only 21 cards at $4 or more, two weeks into the set. Now let’s see what’s under MSRP in value.

Game Trail ">Game Trail $3.98

Always Watching $3.97

Fortified Village ">Fortified Village $3.97

Goldnight Castigator $3.73

Sin Prodder ">Sin Prodder $3.60

Cryptolith Rite ">Cryptolith Rite $3.59

Choked Estuary $3.51

Descend upon the Sinful $3.04

Eight more cards have the average value of a pack. So if you happen to win a cheap eBay auction or something and get your box for $90, there’s an additional pair of cards that are worth the price of a pack:

Drownyard Temple ">Drownyard Temple $2.73

To the Slaughter $2.51

At the most optimistic price, you have a 31/77 chance of making the value of a pack. That’s 40%. Ouch. Not great but not awful? Would you push all-in on a 60/40 hand?

If you get your packs at the TCG price of $108 or so, then you have a 29/77 chance, and that’s a slight decrease to 37%, and at the full MSRP on boosters, it drops further to 27%.

Further Explanation

There’s a couple of flaws with my admittedly basic methodology, and it’s worth addressing them.

First of all, I don’t have any way to account for foils. That’s a random event and a nice bonus, but nothing that can be counted on. For every box with a foil Archangel Avacyn, there’s another box with no foil rare at all. If you get it, great! If you don’t, well, better luck next time.

Second, the distribution of double-faced cards is a little wonky, and you can have a double-faced mythic and a double-face uncommon in the same pack. That’s a weird way to go about collating the boosters but hey, that’s not my job. If this is the price we pay to no longer have box mapping be a thing, I’m all in favor of it.

With that said, though, I have to say that the value is just not there for me. Opening a box is a rush, one I know well. Pack after pack of potential, of going slowly to drag out the anticipation or just tearing into it all in a flurry of Mylar. It’s a great feeling…until it’s gone.

I am obligated to point out that not all mythics are equal. Three of them (Seasons Past, Geralf’s Masterpiece, and Wolf of Devil’s Breach) don’t even make this list. That’s not a surprise in the abstract, as we all know mythics can be powerful and yet still inexpensive, but with so little time in retail stores and draft settings…that’s a lot of value gone and fast.

We have a potential spike in front of us, though, with the Pro Tour starting today.This will begin the dance of ‘who will follow through with orders?’ and ‘I can’t sell this fast enough!’ and the popular ‘oh god the card spiked and I had it on my want list…’ and that’s all an extra layer of price complexity. What cards will be popular? Who will run the table with an unforeseen and effective metagame call?
Still, the advice remains solid: Don’t buy packs. Don’t buy boxes. Don’t buy cases. At this point, you’re going to be lucky to open even equivalent value.

MTGPrice Blog