Casual Fridays

Potential Commander Spikes

By: Cliff Daigle

With Commander 2014 being a month old, it’s time to take a look at the five decks, and see if there’s something to be anticipated this time around. Last year, there was a series of spikes around cards that went well with Nekusar, the Mindrazer. Since that was a new legend who came with the chase card (True-Name Nemesis) I want to follow that lead.

Containment Priest is currently the priciest card, thanks to her spike during the Legacy GP. So what’s in the white deck and what might we make money on? There’s two themes: Equipment and Tokens.

On the equipment side, I like a few things: First, foil copies of Taj-Nar Swordsmith can be had for $1 or less. It’s much easier to recur a creature than to get back a sorcery in an all-white deck, though the Gift is a $3 uncommon that could go way up. Steelshaper Apprentice is slow, yes, unless the first equipment you tutor up is Lightning Greaves! 

Stoneforge Mystic is also good but she’s too expensive for a useful spec right now. She’s going to get reprinted before too long. Stonehewer Giant was just in Modern Masters and can be had for about $2, with foils going for between $7-12, depending on edition.

The token theme is harder to spot. My favorite two, though, are Twilight Drover (two printings, about $1) and Custodi Soulbinders from Conspiracy. Sure, you can have Geist-Honored Monk or others, but I like cards that offer a backup plan.

The red deck offers three valuable cards: Daretti, Scrap Savant, Wurmcoil Engine, and Dualcaster Mage. The legends of Feldon of the Third Path and Bosh, Iron Golem make is clear that this deck is all about artifacts coming and going from and to the graveyard. Kuldotha Forgemaster has already crept up a little in value, but what else might?

I like Precursor Golem to give me Golem tokens, Genesis Chamber, Myr Battlesphere, Myr Matrix, Myr Turbine for lots of Myr, Pentavus for value, and Urza’s Factory for the long games.

Summoning Station is the secret tech for this deck, though. Artifacts are cycling from play to the graveyard like crazy and you want to get some bonuses. I would also watch Darksteel Forge. Though there’s three printings of it, it’s an effect that is very good at keeping your things in play once you get them there.

The green deck is all about lands and Elves. I don’t think that an Elf deck has much room to grow, but a lot of the less-common elves got a new printing, like Priest of Titania. I think that Elvish Promenade and Jagged-Scar Archers are the ones to watch. They are Lorwyn uncommons, so there’s not that many out there by modern standards. The Duels promos are not a large enough amount to matter too much.

Titania as a legend offers some interesting designs. You want to sacrifice lands and get value. I think Life from the Loam is the biggest potential gainer from this build, and it’s had just enough reprinting that it could go up a couple of dollars. Crucible of Worlds won’t go up too much, but that’s gold for a deck built around sacrificing lands.

Other cards to watch: Dust Bowl, Constant Mists, Crop Rotation, Zuran Orb, Scapeshift, Rath’s Edge, Lotus Vale, Scorched Ruins, Petrified Field. These all sacrifice lands to gain benefit, which when Titania is out, gives you some 5/3 Elemental action too.

Also consider that Doubling Season will party like a rock star in this deck, as will Parallel Lives and other token-doublers like Parallel Evolution.

I also like Terminal Moraine and Myriad Landscape in this deck, but I don’t think those prices would grow very much.

In the blue deck, we have Teferi, Temporal Archmage and Stitcher Geralf. Those builds could go a lot of ways, but there’s a strong card-draw theme in the blue deck and so I have two suggestions: Jin-Gitaxias, Core Augur to maximize your card drawing and Psychosis Crawler.

The Crawler is so amazingly good in a lot of decks, but there are extra foil versions out there, since it was the foil included in one of the Mirrodin Besieged intro packs.

Finally, Ob Nixilis’s deck. Ghoulcaller Gisa offers a very straightforward ‘Zombie horde’ strategy, and Ob Nixilis offers a repeatable method for draining/gaining life. I would look out for the re-rise of the Exquisite Blood/Sanguine Bond combo with Ob Nixilis.

My favorite card to add to a Gisa deck would easily be Endless Ranks of the Dead. If Gisa gets you two Zombies, this adds a third. The growth chart gets really crazy from there up. Gempalm Polluter is good, and Gravecrawler might be the perfect card to sacrifice to Gisa. Also watch out for Mikaeus, the Unhallowed, as he enables a lot of shenanigans.

Shepherd of Rot is pretty amazing at what it does, and combined with Gutless Ghoul and some Gisa activations, you can do a lot of work. If Gisa makes a few tokens, the sky is the limit. Door of Destinies in a tribal deck, Obelisk of Urd or Coat of Arms if you just want to grow a horde. Stronghold Assassin is very strong, and in a multicolored deck, Deadapult is the best combination of name, ability, and flavor ever!

From this list, I’d say that Steelshaper’s Gift is the most likely to spike. I think Darksteel Forge won’t be far behind. I’ve tried to outline a range of options, though, so if you see these in someone’s binder at FNM, feel free to pick up a few spares.

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The Gilded Goblin

Accountability – A Seven Month Review

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By: Jared Yost

Time to put my money where my mouth is. This is where you get to find out exactly what I’ve purchased, the amount I purchased, and at what price. I’m going back a whole seven months to show you which cards I’ve been picking up this year. At the end, we’ll see whether or not they worked out in my favor and what I’ve learn about my pickups.

My Therosian Manifesto

One thing I’ve really wanted to nail down when it comes to my forays into the Magic financial realm are goals. Yes, one of the most generic terms for success also applies here when trying to purchase Magic cards for value. At the beginning of the year my goals for enhancing my collection included the following:

  1. Focus on Foils Over Non-Foils

Why this goal? Because I’ve been burned in the past, and also very recently, on cards where I decided to go the non-foil route over the foil. Since my past mistakes are too numerous to list here, my most recent example of why I crafted this goal was because of Griselbrand. Guess who was announced this year as the GP Promo for the following year? That’s right, my boy Griselbrand who I had acquired during 2013 at $8 per copy. I had accumulated twelve copies by the time of this announcement. Let’s just say I was lucky to buylist them for the price I paid.

The only exceptions I allow myself to this rule are for Standard and reserve list picks. I tried to stick to this this goal as close as possible but didn’t adhere to it every time I picked up something.

Another reason I like foils is because they are especially good targets for Commander staples, which have proven to be good Magic financial gainers. A great example of this was when foil Chromatic Lanterns were everywhere and I was picking them up for $7.50 or cheaper. Now they’re $15 and rising as time goes on.

  1. Avoid the Booster Box / Booster Pack Money Hole

Booster boxes and packs are really fun to purchase though are a losing proposition in the long run. There are way too many bulk rares out there these days to make flipping boxes into a profit for guys like me that don’t own a store but want their collection to steadily rise in value. This is a lesson that took me way too long to learn. Now that I finally have, I try to avoid buying boxes and packs for pleasure.

  1. Choose Bulk Rares Carefully

When I first started experimenting with Magic finance I would pick up any bulk rare that I thought was cool, expecting it to eventually go up to the price that I thought it should be at. Several years later and I still have a box of failed specs that haven’t gone anywhere. Even worse, some have dropped considerably in price based on my whimsical logic. This was certainly the most expensive lesson for me to learn, even more so than buying random boxes and packs for “value”. At least packs sometimes produce cards people want that you can use to salvage some of your costs. Bulk rares can stick around for years without moving. It’s not technically a loss on paper because I haven’t gotten rid of them, yet I’ve come to realize that opportunity cost is a real thing. What I spent on bulk rares and questionable cards I could have put into staples that I knew were going to be fine in the long run. My most glaring example of this is I should have just picked up more shock lands rather than try to find “undervalued” RTR and GTC bulk rares and mythics.

Now I’ve made it a point to pick up higher cost format staples that are undervalued either due to being in Standard or having a recent reprint. Rare lands that provide mana fixing from Standard like Mana Confluence is a recent example of this.

Let’s See How I Did

Now that you know my goals for this year, I’ll provide you what I’ve purchased from now back until April 30th. The reason I picked this date to start is because I started formulating my goals mid-April and wanted to see the results of those goals from then on out.

Here’s the breakdown of purchases and the estimated date of the purchase. All buy prices were TCG Median.

# Card Set Buy Date Buy Price
1 Cabal Coffers Torment FOIL 10/28/2014 $19.48
12 Crater’s Claws Khans of Tarkir 10/24/2014 $0.99
1 Proteus Staff Mirrodin FOIL 10/24/2014 $7.23
3 Ajani, Mentor of Heroes Journey into Nyx 10/12/2014 $16.94
6 See the Unwritten Khans of Tarkir 10/10/2014 $3.10
8 Pearl Lake Ancient Khans of Tarkir 10/10/2014 $0.99
4 Jeskai Ascendancy Khans of Tarkir 10/10/2014 $5.08
7 Altar of the Brood Khans of Tarkir 10/10/2014 $0.44
4 Shivan Reef M15 FOIL 10/2/2014 $9.88
19 Doomwake Giant Journey into Nyx 9/27/2014 $0.40
3 Elspeth, Sun’s Champion Theros 9/26/2014 $21.86
2 Sorin, Solemn Visitor Khans of Tarkir 9/22/2014 $15.19
1 Metalworker Urza’s Destiny 9/12/2014 $12.06
1 Courser of Kruphix Born of the Gods 8/31/2014 $12.48
4 Congregation at Dawn Ravnica FOIL 8/20/2014 $2.00
3 Xenagos, the Reveler Theros FOIL 8/15/2014 $18.99
4 Master of Waves Theros 7/25/2014 $3.96
5 Mana Confluence Journey into Nyx 7/25/2014 $7.94
3 True-Name Nemesis C13 7/25/2014 $16.50
3 Hall of Triumph Journey FOIL 7/25/2014 $2.05
12 Anger of the Gods Theros 7/25/2014 $1.32
2 Dictate of Erebos Journey FOIL 7/25/2014 $7.33
1 Sliver Hivelord M15 FOIL 7/25/2014 $31.00
2 Hornet Queen M15 FOIL 7/25/2014 $4.35
1 Erebos, God of the Dead Theros FOIL 7/25/2014 $16.00
1 Exploration Conspiracy FOIL 7/25/2014 $39.99
8 Hero’s Downfall Theros 7/25/2014 $5.00
3 Swan Song Theros FOIL 4/30/2014 $8.50
12 Soldier of the Pantheon Theros 4/30/2014 $1.49
3 Arcbound Ravager Modern Masters 4/30/2014 $18.99
10 Thoughtseize Theros 4/30/2014 $16.00

Total spent from April 30th until now – $909.65

Total current retail value of cards TCG Median – $1,152.10

% Gain / Loss – 21% retail (before accounting for shipping)

Accounting for shipping at estimated $1.50 per order, if each single card was an order:

31 separate cards * $1.50 = $46.50. This brings the total spent up to $956.15.

% Gain / Loss including shipping = 17% Retail

Buylist – How much can I get if I buylist all the cards right now?

Using MTGPrice’s My Collection tool I’ve determined that the cash value of my collection when sold to vendors is $649.95.

% Gain / Loss of Buylisting = –29% Buylist

There seems to be some conflicting information here. I’ve gained in terms of retail but lost in terms of buylist? Let me explain further why the numbers resulted this way.

Retail and Buylist – Why You Shouldn’t Value at Retail

Based on my calculations in the previous section, you can see that I thought I was erroneously ahead based on the retail value of the cards – in reality I am set back about 30% based on the pickups I’ve made this year. Seems like I’m doing bad right? Well, only if I decided to cash out this very second. Many of the cards I plan on holding for a while longer yet. You can can put pretty much everything from Khans into this category, including Jeskai Ascendency when I bought in during the hype of Pro Tour Kahns at $5. Retrospectively, it was a bad decision to buy into the hype and I need to restrain myself in the future of buying based on immediate fluctuation.

Another reason that buylist seems so miserable right now is because the more expensive purchases, such as foil Conspiracy Exploration and foil M15 Sliver Hivelord, haven’t moved in price at all since I picked them up earlier this year. These would be examples of the long term holds I mentioned. I’m not planning on selling these at a loss simply because I know with time they are bound to go up due to causal and Commander demand. It happened for Chromatic Lantern and it will happen again here.

In order to get the maximum amount from buylisting this year, I would have needed all of my speculations to double up or more – in seven months this was not going to happen to everything I was choosing. It just goes to show that mtgfinance is the ultimate waiting game if you’re looking to get the most out of future buylisting.

Many of these cards I plan on keeping for personal use and I don’t care what the current prices are, buylist or otherwise. I expect to have them for a long time and can cash them out later when I know I’m not using them.

Valuing at retail looks pretty sweet for cards like Hero’s Downfall and Doomwake Giant – if I can find someone to trade these to, I can really come out ahead if I pick up Modern staples or other casual format gainers like cards from the new Commander 2014 set. This would be the only benefit of a retail price increase.

Lessons Learned – Additional Goals for Next Year

Now that the year is wrapping up and I’ve determined how I did, I want to add a few more goals to my list for next year.

  1. Ask myself “can this card double up, and if it does will the buylist reflect that?”

This is going to save me a few heartaches when I realize that those Doomwake Giants, even though doubling in retail, actually haven’t moved much at all on the buylist.

  1. Continue to Find Avenues for Trading such as Puca Trade

Having more ways to trade cards away for retail value is essential for failed buylist specs like Doomwake Giant. By trading them at retail, you can ignore the abysmal buylist price and instead pick up a long term staple like Snapcaster Mage that will continue to be around for years to come.

  1. Avoid the Hype – The Window is Too Short

As soon as Pro Tour Khans was over, the prices went back down to almost where they started and have leveled off since then. Avoiding the hype is hard to do when the numbers are telling you different, but look no further than my own speculations to see that hype is gone in a flash and then you are stuck waiting a while longer for value that may not even arrive.

Final Thoughts

2014 has certainly been a learning experience for me. I’ve had success, but at the price of terrible buylisting options. I’ll need to either trade more aggressively once retail prices go up for cards I’m interested in or I will need to pass on the more aggressive spiking cards and instead aim for more stable long term gainers.

Right now, my buylist loss of 30% is pretty big without even considering the shipping costs that would further add to that loss. However, I still believe the future is very promising for some of the cards I’ve acquired. Foil Chromatic Lantern, a card that by every means had to go up in price based on the popularity in Commander, still took eleven months to double up in price from $7.50 to $15.00. The fact that many of the cards I picked up increased in retail price is also a good sign because this means if the cards continue to stay popular the buylist will have to increase in order to match the demand.

The conflicting gains and losses that I discovered for my pickups is acceptable to me at this point yet there is certainly room for improvement. Since my loss would be so great from buylisting, I’m going to have to take the risk that the retail prices will continue to rise rather than getting 70% of the cash value of the cards right now and taking a 30% loss. Many of the cards I picked up are casual and Commander gainers so I expect them to retain their value for quite a while yet. I picked up a fair amount of foils that I believe will gain in the long term, limited my booster box / pack purchases, and severely restricted the amount of bulk rares I bought. I followed my goals closely but not close enough in some cases. There are still plenty of takeaways from this year.

What does everyone think of my selections? Do you think I’m in trouble or do you think I’m doing well? What do you think my worst and best pickups were?

 

Casual Fridays

Price Surprises Pt. 2

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By: Cliff Daigle

I had meant for this to be a two-part series, but there’s just too much to talk about! Remember, these are cards at $5 or more that might well be sorted into bulk boxes, because many of these were very cheap at one point. I’ve already gone to my boxes and re-sorted more than once.

Mercadian Masques: Unmask, Dust Bowl

Unmask is perhaps one of the most busted things to do on turn one in Legacy or Vintage. It does cost you an extra card, but it needs no mana and has to be countered. (Otherwise, you’re taking that counterspell!) There was a time when I played in a tournament, when it was called Type 1, and I played this before anything else. They cast Force of Will, so then I played Swamp-Dark Ritual–Hypnotic. Brutal.

Dust Bowl has seen play in Legacy rarely, it’s more of an EDH card. It’s very good at what it does, turning all of your basics into Wastelands.

Nemesis: Kor Haven

Mostly, it’s a second Maze of Ith, but if they attack you and you have blockers, you can kill their creature without losing one yourself. It’s better, but it costs mana.

Prophecy: Phyrexian Altar

One of the iconic engine cards in token combo decks. Make X creatures, sacrifice them, do something silly. Casual all the way.

Planeshift: Diabolic Intent

It’s not used with combo decks, because it needs a creature. Commander players can just play Demonic Tutor, and often do alongside this. I’ve see it the most with Child of Alara decks. Wipe the board and find what you want!

 

Odyssey: Squirrel Mob, Patron Wizard, Karmic Justice

Your eyes do not deceive you. The Mob is indeed. It’s all because a certain amount of casual players love their squirrels. It’s surprising to me that the foil is only double the regular, but then again, it makes sense. You want to play a deck with four Mobs, not two. Patron Wizard was brutal when he was Standard-legal, and remains a very good play in Wizard-themed decks. Karmic Justice is an all-star in Commander.

Judgment: Solitary Confinement

This sees a little play in Legacy, as part of Enchantress decks or decks that want to put their shields up. This doesn’t have a condition that breaks the bubble, so once you can draw extras, having hexproof and prevention is pretty strong.

Onslaught: Mana Echoes, Blatant Thievery

Mana Echoes. How many times did I try to break this card and have it work in my Turbo-Thallid deck? I suppose I could do it now, but the thrill is gone. The card is insane, enabling all sorts of infinite shenanigans. It’s a two-card combo with lots of cards (Sliver Queen!) and with something like Skyshroud Elf it can make even a Jade Mage fill the board up after the third token.

Blatant Thievery, along with Insurrection, is the card I love most about Commander.

Legions: Toxin Sliver, Magma Sliver, Synapse Sliver

Slivers are going to show up several times on this list, and that’s because they are awesome and terrifying. If you built a Sliver deck back in the day (or several different days) and put it on a shelf, take a look at what it’s worth and have a gasp.

Scourge: Dragonspeaker Shaman

While reprints are a factor in most cards, I don’t think new-frame versions of this card are going to hit this too hard. Either Fate Reforged or Dragons of Tarkir seems likely to have this card.

Mirrodin: Extraplanar Lens, Solemn Simulacrum, Gilded Lotus

The Commander combo with the Lens involves Snow-Covered lands. This lets you have the bonus be one-sided, which is handy considering that you’re down a card. Blowing this up feels so good, but bouncing their Lens feels even better!

Solemn’s art dictates a price swing. This version, showing Jens Thoren, is worth more, as is the Commander 2011 version. I miss the Invitational winners getting their own cards! Gilded Lotus has had two set printings plus an FTV version, and is still going strong. The fact that you can tap it immediately and play a three-drop makes it so that you don’t lose much tempo.

Darksteel: Sundering Titan, Skullclamp

The Titan is another card with several printings that hasn’t impacted his price too much. He’s sometimes a Reanimator target, and is one of the most unfair things to Tinker up. Skullclamp really surprised me, I’d thought that its printings would have tanked the value further. The new-art version in Commander 2014 is at $2, which was my expectation.

Fifth dawn: Doubling Cube

What’s the only thing better than lots of mana? Lots of mana times two! This is a hilarious card, as it’s only good when you have seven or more mana. Most Magic cards are good at that point. Its interaction with the God Kruphix is pretty darn hilarious.

Champions of Kamigawa: Marrow-Gnawer, Legendary lands

Marrow-Gnawer fits like a glove into that Relentless Rats deck you love. He needs lots and lots of Rats. Magic has given us lots of rats, but you can’t add Marrow-Gnawer to just any token theme deck like you could a card like Krenko, Mob Boss.

The legendary lands from Champions are a real surprise to me. They don’t enter tapped and give one color of mana, so they are an upgrade over a basic land. Untapping and granting fear are neat abilities, preventing two damage is okay, granting first strike or +1/+1 is a yawn. I wouldn’t have thought the price difference would be so stark, though!

Betrayers of Kamigawa: Mirror Gallery, Ink-Eyes, Flames of the Blood Hand

Mirror Gallery. How fun…and this card was printed around the dawn of EDH as a format. Despite Commander players not needing this card, other casual formats keep the interest and the price high. Flames of the Blood Hand is at this price despite being in the Fire and Lightning deck. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it in Modern Masters 2. Burn players mostly opt for this over Skullcrack, but having both is not a bad choice.

Ink-Eyes has a Planechase printing that’s $3 less, and was the prerelease promo. A great pickup for less than $5.

Saviors of Kamigawa: The most expensive seven cards

First of all, understand that Champions and Betrayers were underpowered sets, Saviors just doesn’t have a lot of product out there. That adds upwards pressure on the prices.

Mikokoro is popping up in some Death and Taxes list, as a pretty hilarious addition. Giving the other person cards is not a drawback if they are not usable. Erayo is banned in Commander but is pretty amazing in an Affinity list. Sakashima is an awesome and abusable cloning legend.

Oboro is a one-of in Modern Tron to help turn colorless mana blue. Play it, tap it, pay to bounce, play it again, tap again. Miren is a ‘fixed’ Diamond Valley, giving you an indication of its power level. Michiko is just mean, the most rattlesnake of cards. Kami of the Crescent Moon is a legend but is used in decks seeking to abuse those draws, and was a big part of the old Owling Mine decks. (Look at this Pro Tour Top 8 deck! You gave them cards faster than they could use them! The format was just silly.)

Next week, we make it to Ravnica block, when Magic’s renaissance began.

 

City of Traders, ProTrader

PROTRADER: The Magic Market for the Rest of Us (Well, You): Trading

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By: Travis Allen

I began playing Magic beyond the kitchen table at Zendikar’s release five years ago, way back in 2009. At the time I think the most expensive card I owned was Doubling Season, and I’m pretty sure it was about $5. I knew next to nothing about how much most cards were worth, or what was good to trade for, or what might spike in price next week. I was focused solely on making gigantic Cytoplast Root-Kins and sacrificing Leveler while Endless Whispers was in play.

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