The Gilded Goblin

Let’s Play Spike or Hype

2 Comments

By: Jared Yost

It’s that time again folks! As you may be aware these days cards seem to be spiking out of nowhere. Does the spike have merit, signaling a card has corrected itself in price? Is it just hype or a buyout where somebody thinks they struck gold but really it’s fools gold? Let’s take a look at the facts and try to analyze what’s going on here.

FNM Gitaxian Probe and New Phyrexia Gitaxian Probe FOIL

I think that this spike, in terms of what it was versus what it became, is very shocking. FNM Probe’s started at $2.50-$3 in January, with a minor rise to $4-$5 until last week, to the current spiked price of $15. From January until now that is a 500% increase. Similarly, NPH Gitaxian Probe foils were $4-$6 back in January and now are around $30 on tcgplayer. I knew it was a solid target but at the same time I was surprised at how far these two versions jumped because the card is a common. However, it just goes to show you that rarer forms of commons can certainly hold a premium price if they are sought after enough. An extreme would be foil Japanese Brainstorm which is worth about $340.

In general, Twitter contains some solid advice if you are following the right people for magic finance. Back in January, Twitter got me thinking about Gitaxian Probe foils (I believe @JasonEAlt made this tweet but unfortunately I couldn’t find it.) When I saw tweets about FNM Gitaxian Probe and Foil New Phyrexia Gitaxian Probe being criminally underpriced I looked into it further.

After my research, I also thought it was a solid pick for two reasons. First is that it is played in both Modern and Legacy, which means that foil copies will retain demand over time from the eternal players that eventually like to foil out their decks. Second is that Phyrexian mana spells are really hard to reprint since it is such a set specific mechanic. Everyone remembers Mental Misstep, so due to that huge mistake I think that Wizards is very hesitant to bring a mechanic like this back.

I then went to TCGPlayer and saw tons of FNM copies listed at $2.50 per piece and NPH foil copies listed from $4-$6. I thought that this was a low price considering the amount of play the card was seeing and picked up my copies accordingly. I’ve had them ever since and am glad I was able to capitalize on the Twitter advice.

Going forward I would say that the new price is going to stick especially for NPH foil copies. It is a card that is popular in both Legacy and Modern and I don’t see it going away for a long time due to it being a “free” spell.

Ancient Tomb

This spike, at least for me, was eerily similar to the Gitaxian Probe spike in terms of how I heard about it and the time it took from hearing that advice until the time that it decided to spike. Just like Gitaxian Probe, I first heard about Ancient Tomb on Twitter via the Brainstorm Brewery podcast. Being the counterpart to the other two-colorless land City of Traitors that is played in Legacy archetypes, they noticed that City of Traitors was $70 while Ancient Tomb was $10. Wasteland, which has gone over $130 recently, is a good example here of how underpriced Ancient Tomb was since it was from the same set. Although clearly Wasteland sees a ton more play than Ancient Tomb, $10 is quite low for a Legacy staple considering its power level.

Again, just like Probe, I checked out the price on TCGPlayer and the average in February was $10. Again, I picked up copies accordingly because I agreed that Ancient Tomb was popular and looked underpriced due to the play it was seeing. I regret not purchasing FTV: Realms copies of Ancient Tomb, since they are the only foil copy and have spiked way harder than the Tempest copies have.

For both, I believe that this new price is here to stay. A solid Legacy staple from an older set that will have a home in Legacy archetypes, it was only a matter of time before this happened.

Food Chain

Due to the hype that Food Chain received from being a playset in a namesake deck that came in 4th place at the recent SCG: Los Angeles Legacy Open on 3/23/2014, it is no surprise that others decided to buy in. It went from $5 to $13, which is interesting because the first time this card spiked is when Misthollow Griffin was first spoiled back in Avacyn Restored. Around then it jumped up to about $13 as well, but since no one could do anything with the deck at the time it dropped right back down to its original price of around $5 after several months. Now that a Misthollow Griffin deck featuring Food Chain has placed in a SCG Open Top 8, I believe the new price is here to stick and could even increase if the deck keeps seeing Top 8 or Top 16 appearances.

Besides Food Chain, other cards from this deck to watch include Manipulate Fate and Shardless Agent. Manipulate Fate may seem like a strange target but I like foil copies at $0.50. If others decide to build this deck, clearly $0.25 for an uncommon from a set as old as Invasion seems low. It wouldn’t hurt to pick up a playset for yourself if you plan on building this deck for a Legacy event. Shardless Agent has already proven itself as a solid card in Legacy, with an archetype to its name (Shardless BUG) and only one printing in a somewhat limited product. This new archetype could be what it takes to get the Agent over $20.

Autumn Willow

Huh, going from $1 or less to $5 suddenly seems strange for this Homelands rare. I’m guessing a buyout occurred on TCGPlayer where someone bought up all the copies in hopes of turning them around at a later point for profit. Unfortunately for them, this card just isn’t that good. I realize that is has pseudo-hexproof but it just can’t compete with the all the crazy new kids on the block these days. I’m not sure if it will be ever less than $2 due to rarity alone but it is certainly not worth $5 and definitely not worth buying in at this point.

Leonin Arbiter

Going from less than a $1 to $2-$3 may not be much of a spike but it is certainly a double up at the least. Leonin Arbiter is a fine card in the Modern Hatebear deck and even sees play from time to time in Legacy in Death and Taxes, although this appearance is much rarer than Modern. I can see why someone would be looking to pick these up. Though he isn’t as great as Thalia (which also has gone up recently) or Aven Mindcensor in Modern, he is still usually seen as a playset in the the Hatebear decks that do exist. Modern is still pretty wide open, so even though his price has already doubled I think he still has room for future growth. This current spike is just a price correction.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he even climbed as high as $5 during Modern season if Hatebears puts up any Top 8 results. I wouldn’t actively trade for these guys as he plays a limited role in only one deck archetype and is from a fairly recent large set, but if you plan on playing Hatebears try to pick up your playset before Modern season goes into full swing.

 

Silent-Blade Oni & Ghostly Prison

I’ll lump these two together because they are both spiking cards that derive their demand largely from the casual market. Ghostly Prison does see play in Legacy and Modern from time to time but clearly its demand is 95% casual.

Ghostly Prison has demand but its price is contingent on when the next reprint happens. Stocking up on these and then seeing Wizards announce a product where it is reprinted will be bad for whoever decides to buy in at $7. Wizards has already reprinted Ghostly Prison three times so they have shown they want to get copies out there. Stay far away from this one, since there is almost no demand from the tournament scene and it could be reprinted at any time. If you have extra Prisons trade them into more solid long term gainers.

On the other hand, my first impressions of Silent-Blade Oni missed the mark. Silent-Blade Oni has a good chance of sticking to the new price. I now realize that since it only has one printing and utilizes the block specific mechanic Ninjutsu, there are only so many products that this guy could go into besides Commander or something similar. I wouldn’t expect him to go up in price again for quite a while since it already spiked last month. Even if it does spike again, you would be risking a lot for something where there is not a lot of money to be made. Clearly the casual market is a strong force but I would look to other targets as there is not really much money to be made here for the amount of time that you will need to wait and having the possibility of a reprint loom over your head.

  

Volcanic Island, Underground Sea, Plateau

Well, I think we’ve all seen this before. Starcity has a track record of raising their buylist prices on Legacy staples like dual lands in the hope that people will sell them what they have… only to then increase their store prices on those same dual lands by a huge margin to match the buylist increase. This is because they have a huge pulse on the market, being one of the top retailers of Magic products in the world, and use their inventory data to make price corrections based on the actual demand some of these cards are seeing so that they can capitalize off the demand.

If you’ve been playing this game long enough, dual lands going up in price should be no shock to you. Be aware that these days they can really go up a lot without much time for you to react and pick up them before the next spike. Long term, they are great gainers since the Reserved List guarantees that we won’t be seeing them or anything like them again.

I do share similar feelings with Travis about Modern replacing Legacy, and once that paradigm shift occurs I also agree that the dual lands won’t be the cards that go down. They’ll just teeter off, and go up slowly but surely like the Power 9 does over time. The takeaway here is that if you want dual lands you will need to budget, act according to your own needs, and develop a purchase plan if you are looking to eventually pick them up. I predict that they will spike a few more times before Modern replaces Legacy so the sooner you are able to act the better.

Final Thoughts

Here to Stay:
– Foil versions of Gitaxian Probe (FNM, New Phyrexia)
– Ancient Tomb
– Food Chain
– Leonin Arbiter
– Dual Lands

Ancient Tomb, Food Chain, and Leonin Arbiter are the shakiest inclusions for this category because of the reprint fear. However, for these three cards I don’t see that being a factor for quite some time. If you want to acquire them the new price is your reality and you won’t be getting a deal easily but they will trade well.

Risky:
– Ghostly Prison
– Silent-Blade Oni

Cards that derive their demand from the casual market and are reprintable are risky pickups. I would stay away from these, but if I see a good deal on them I would take it in the hopes of trading them for more solid gainers.

Stay Away:
– Autumn Willow

No real play, either in casual or tournament environments. Outclassed by newer cards with better effects. Acquire for gains at your own peril.

Casual Fridays

Fear and Finance

By: Cliff Daigle

I have extolled my viewpoint as a casual financier before, but to summarize, I don’t like to buy cards. I like to trade for my EDH cards, and I have had a string of a few years where I’ve slowly built up the value of my collection this way. I don’t speculate on cards in the sense that I will go buy a stack of them, but I will trade for them when the price is right. I like to plan ahead, trading for things when they are cheap and trading them away when they aren’t.

I’ve rung the bell for Thespian’s Stage and Prophet of Kruphix over and over. Both of those are buylisting for a lot more right now than they were early on. I should know–as part of selling out some Commander decks, I got $2 for Prophet and $1 for Stage.

Over the past few months, I’ve traded for 50 Prophets and 40 Stages. Non-foils, at least. I’ve got a couple of each in foil but those are in decks and not part of my plan. I’m expecting those cards to grow in the next year, dip a little, and begin a long-term increase in value because they are amazing in casual formats.

But if these are casual cards, what happens if they get the EDH ban?

What about if I had a playset of foil Deathrite Shamans, and now they aren’t Modern-legal? It was going to spike so hard eventually! What if I trade for 20 Birthing Pods, and when Journey into Nyx comes out, Wizards bans that card from Modern too?

Welcome to the fear.

There is always a chance that your plan doesn’t work. This is true in any setting, Magic or not. The unexpected will happen. Your car will break down. You will have an injury. Someone else’s bad day will turn into your bad day.

There is not much you can do to prevent the unexpected, but managing your fear is a necessary part of financial planning. Your can’t-miss spec…will sometimes miss.

If you’re feeling the cold grip of fear, there are two ways to stay warm:

#1: Diversify

Here at MTGPrice, you’re going to get all sorts of tips and tricks. You don’t have to take all of our advice, it’s up to you. But you should do more than zero in on one card and buy only that card. You want to have a few things lined up, stored away for when their price increases. 

The amount of diversification you do is proportional to the amount of money you’re comfortable spending. There are people with the bankroll to decide on a card, and then spend $50, or $100, or what they want to. My policy was simpler on these two cards: I’d take all that someone wanted to trade.

I do think there’s a chance that Prophet gets banned in Commander within the next year. It’s not overtly overpowered, as it is a creature, and enables creatures, but in effect, you’ve got multiple Time Warp effects. You get to take a turn every time someone else takes a turn. You get to cast creatures and instants, with all of your mana, on each of your opponents’ turns. While that isn’t much of a strategy in and of itself, it doesn’t take much to get out of hand. Perhaps most obnoxious about the card is the time factor, since one player’s extra turns means that much more time that player has to do things, the more time other spend waiting.

Just imagine you have Prophet out, with a Sprout Swarm in your hand. Everyone is going to want you dead, simply because you’re spending more and more time playing with yourself and building an army.

So if Prophet of Kruphix gets the Commander ban, the long-term prospects take a dive. I wouldn’t try to hold the card past Christmas 2014.

Thespian’s Stage is a card I feel is also dripping with long-term potential, but it’s quite unlikely that it gets banned in EDH. This is my way of managing my risk. I don’t have all my money tied up in Prophet, so if something goes wrong with one of these two, I have other options.

#2: Consideration

This is not an action to take, it’s more of mindset to have. When you choose what cards to buy in on, you do so after some amount of thinking about it. 

That reflection should also be present when you’re worried about those choices.

Remind yourself that seemingly every card that is ever played in Modern is $5. And it could go up higher! Tell yourself that Deadeye Navigator, Kiki-Jiki, Palinchron, and a host of other cards aren’t banned yet in Commander either!

This is also when you make ‘just-in-case’ plans. For instance, I’m going to be content to sell most of my Prophets during the next block, minimizing my risk on the rest. Or if it gets banned before I sell, I’ll be able to look at other cards and feel not-quite-as-bad. Even Primeval Titan is still retaining value, despite not making Constructed waves and getting banned in EDH.

I hope you’re able to stock up on cards with less anxiety, and if you need some tips, I’m a believer on these two cards.

City of Traders

Standard Snapshot: 3/26/14

By: Travis Allen

Last week I got everyone real angry about Legacy. I failed to clarify one particular point though, which I’ll start with today. When I implied that Legacy was going to fade away I wasn’t explicit about what that meant. It doesn’t mean nobody will play the format anymore. I expect it to eventually end up as Vintage is today – enjoyed by a core group of dedicated players, occasionally responsible for odd cards being hilariously expensive, but overall not something most players concern themselves with. People will still have their pet decks and Legacy events will continue to fire at local stores and Grand Prix side events. But there will come a day when SCG no longer runs it as a major event at opens and you can no longer win Pro Tour invites playing the format. That is the eventual fate of Legacy, not a total abolishment from the minds of mortals.

Anyways, on to today’s topic. We haven’t talked Standard in a while, and GP Cincinnati just occurred, which seems like a good reason to take a look at the format. Where is the money to be made? What should we stay away from? What do we sell? Is everyone sick of Pack Rat yet? (The last one is easy: yes.) 

Kyle Boggemes took down the whole event with a soup du jour Esper control list. The first thing that jumps out at me is the full twelve Scrylands. If you haven’t figured it out yet, these are powerful lands that are going to be relevant for their full course in Standard. What’s most interesting is how resilient the prices have been on the Theros lands. Typically we see the current fall-set lands get quite low. The Innistrad checklands behaved this way as well. These seem to have kept their prices a little better than I anticipated, with the exception of Temple of Mystery. Their floor will be between May and June, so whatever they fall to, that’s as low as they’re going to be.

The Born of the Gods temples are still doing quite well too, especially Temple of Enlightenment, clocking in at nearly $9. UW was clearly going to be the best Scryland from the outset and the price reflects that. The BOG scrylands should fare better than their Theros counterparts overall, and the Journey lands will be in a position to sit at the top of the financial pile. More on this at the bottom of the article

Three Elspeths is also worth noting, and she’s been prevalent in many of these lists. Her price continues to be a stubborn $20, which is impressive for a fall Planeswalker. If she gets below $15, I’d start trading hard for her. We will definitely continue to see her after rotation.

If you haven’t moved your Desecration Demons, Nightveil Specters, Underworld Connections, or Pack Rats, get on that soon. Their peak has come and gone.

A playset of Herald of Torment showed up in the Top 8, which is good news for his long-term prospects. He’s still about a dollar, and could pretty easily climb to $3+, maybe even $7-$10 depending on how things shake out. I haven’t bought any myself, but if I could get twelve or more copies for $1 each shipped, I would. We’ll still have Bile Blight, Hero’s Downfall and Thoughtseize after rotation, which basically guarantees he’ll always have a shot at being good. I’ve been wondering if you could actually build a Hero of Iroas deck with Fabled Hero, Agent of the Fates, Herald of Torment, and Nighthowler. It’s probably an FNM deck, but it sure sounds fun.

As I warned, Pain Seer is down to under $1 at this point. She’s a pretty low-risk pickup, but I like her less than I like Herald. She’s just so much more conditional than Herald is.

Naya Auras made the Top 8 as well, but there doesn’t seem to be a lot there we can work with. Most of the deck is rotating soon. I do see a whole lot of Scrylands though.

In the Top 16, Adam Jansen showed up with three copies of Ashiok. I still am a fan, and while Ashiok hasn’t been tearing up the tournament scene, at least s/he’s putting up occasional results. As a $7 pickup, you can’t really go wrong. I’d be surprised if s/he didn’t end up north of $10 at some point this fall for at least a slim period of time. 

Ari Lax was the darling of Cincinnati, piloting a GB “dredge” deck. He had some hot cards for sure. I was about to start listing the cool creatures he was playing but then I realized it was basically just all of them. I don’t think we’ll see Jarad make any moves, as the Duel Deck made sure that even if he’s playable there will be plenty of stock to go around. If you don’t have your Nighthowler promos yet, grab them now. The card is definitely powerful enough, and the full art version is leagues better than the pack foils.

What may be the most interesting card here is Satyr Wayfinder. While he isn’t going to be a $4 common, this list is proof that he is definitely capable of helping enable an archetype. Be on the watch for more graveyard-friendly cards and strategies in Journey and M15. Whip of Erebos will be around this September as well. The seeds are sown for a graveyard deck. The question is whether or not Wizards will make it rain.

While Cincinnati certainly drew the biggest Standard crowd this weekend, there was in fact an SCG open as well. I see Courser of Kruphix in third place, and I notice his price is nearly $10. This guy is definitely legit. Expect to see plenty of him next year as well. He’s a Born of the Gods rare, which is good for his longer-term prospects. $10 is a tough point of entry, but if he slips this summer, jump on that.

Cliff has talked about it before, but I want to refresh your memories here. I recommend you read his article, as it’s digestible and useful. The tl;dr is that the draft format means that we are going to open way more Theros than either of the other two sets, and less Journey than either of the other two. This means Theros cards are the weakest in terms of speculation value, BOG cards will be acceptable, and Journey cards will be ripe for unexpected spikes. It’s tough for me to recommend going deep on any almost anything in Theros, but I think BOG should have a low enough print run that it’s safe to expect movement. Journey will be your best bet, but we aren’t quite there yet.

I’m not saying that it’s impossible for Theros cards to spike, just that there will be less of them, they’ll be harder to identify, and they may not go as high as you’d like.

Casual Fridays

Neat Tricks with MTGPrice.com

1 Comment

By: Cliff Daigle

If you’re reading this, then you’re already aware that MTGPrice is the best price tracking site around. We are more than a set of numbers though, and today I’m going to walk you through a half-dozen tricks that will really enhance your experience with MTGPrice.

Trick #1: Price lookup history

If you use MTGPrice on a mobile device, usually while trading, you’ve probably had to look up several cards in a row. It can be quite annoying to have to look up prices a second time, as terms of a trade change. Here’s a tip for making that process faster and easier.

Since we put the price into the title of the page, all you have to do is look at your recent history in your browser. I have an iPhone, so when you go to the Safari history you see the list of cards and their prices in chronological order that you looked them up.

Until we have an official app, this is a really great tool when you’re working with a group of cards at once.

Trick #2: The Slider

For comparing historical trends, our slider is top-notch. We post our graphs in articles all the time, but seeing the drop from pre-order prices to bulk status reinforces how right you were to sell, sell, sell!

Conversely, you can see long-term trends this way. I know that there are lots of cards that have spiked in the past year, but there’s others on a slow upward trend. The really valuable tool is comparing very similar cards, like the Zendikar fetchlands or the Scars fastlands. While the price of the blue fetches is sky-high, it’s only a matter of time until the other fetches catch up.

#2 – Set Prices

If you look up one card, then you can click on the name of the set that the card is in. That gives you a list, sortable by name, price, and buylist price. This is incredibly valuable information, especially if you’re trying to trade for things that are going to sell easily for good money.

We also get that list ready pretty quick when a new set comes out. I use it as a tool for the early weeks of a set when I want to draft for money or make trades for the future.

#3 – Buylist comparisons

When you enter the cards you own into your collection, there’s a tool for getting the instant cash value of your collection. I realize it hurts to see the retail value of your collection, and then see that you’d get 60% of that in cash, but that’s the nature of the market.

Beyond that, when you’re looking at the price of an individual card, you click the ‘sell to’ button to show what different vendors are paying for that card. If there’s one vendor you prefer, you can check on them, or see what the trends are for that buylist price. Has it gone up and down a lot? Is it consistent? This will let you know.

#4 – Time Slider

For both the buylist and the value, our sliders can track the past two years. This is long enough to show a trend, a banning, or other spikes/drops. Two years is helpful for tracking the effect that Standard rotation has on the price of a card.

Right now, that means Innistrad block, which rotated a year ago. The most striking example of rotation affecting price is Huntmaster of the Fells. Slide its graph all the way out to 106 weeks, and remember when this was a $40 card.

#5 – Prices even though sold out

Finally, an overlooked feature is the ability to see what prices a vendor had for their card before they ran out of stock. We calculate the Fair Trade Price using what is in stock, but it can be very helpful to know what price was so good that they ran out! Sometimes this reflects a run on a card, or someone trying to run up the price by buying out a store’s stock.

When you click the button next to a vendor’s name, you’ll see what price they had. Again, if you like a certain vendor, you can focus there, or you can make a prediction on what they will restock the card at.

I hope you’ve enjoyed this tour of some of our free features. Don’t forget about the lifetime Pro Trader offer! There’s a few spaces left and it is super cheap for all you’ll be getting!

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY