City of Traders

Is Worth It?

11 Comments

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy. And watch this YouTube channel to keep up to date with Cartel Aristocrats, a fun and informative webcast with several other finance personalities!

My girlfriend just paid her car off in full last month. It’s up towards 80,000 miles and she’s wondering if she should keep driving it for awhile or buy a new one. We were discussing it the other day and she relayed a story of having told a coworker her dilemma. She really likes the Prius and has been considering that car specifically. “He said that I would save the most money by continuing to drive my current car for awhile, but I really like the new Prius. I could keep driving my old boring car, or take on a monthly payment again for a car I really want. I guess it would be kind of a luxury, right? Do you think it’s worth it?”

It’s in between rounds at FNM and you’ve got your binder set out in front of you; a hook with which to fish. A young girl, maybe nine years old stops by. She folds her knees underneath her on the chair as she flips page over page. Her mom is sitting at a table on the edge of a room engaged in a Kindle. The little girl stops at a page of red cards, spotting Utvara Hellkite. Her eyes grow wide. She’s giddy. She’s heard about this dragon but has never actually seen the card in real life. “OH MY GOD you have that cool dragon that makes more dragons! That is soooo coool. Will you please trade it to me?” She thrusts an unsleeved pile of cards at you. Amongst the tattered edges of a motley assortment of boosters you spot a fresh Temple of Enlightenment, setting it down on the edge of your binder. “I just opened that earlier. I don’t like blue or white. Those colors are boring. I like dragons.” She’s visibly excited. “Do you think maybe I could give you the land and some other cards for the Hellkite?”

You’ve been that little girl before. Memories of an age of Magic long lost to you shimmer like a heat wave somewhere in the back of your mind. You have a flashback of peers in third grade in awe of Sengir Vampire. It was terrifying. Only one boy in school had it and he never lost a game where he cast it. Everyone coveted it. The thirst to own Sengir yourself is nearly palpable once again. You envy the girl, in a way. She covets this card with a passion you haven’t experienced in years.

The girl’s mother has wandered over. You introduce yourself and tell her that the young woman across from you would like to trade her card for your card, but that her daughter’s card is worth several dollars more than yours is. The mother looks at her daughter, youthful unbridled excitement plainly visible across her face. “I don’t know Sarah. He says your card is more valuable.” “I don’t care. The dragon is so cool. Greg is going to be amazed I have it. Please let me trade it? It’s so worth it!”

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What is the value of a scooped game? How much is a round one concession worth at FNM? How much is that same act of concession worth to you in the last round of the final GP of the season where you just need a few more planeswalker points to lock up your second bye for the entire next year? How about a concession in the finals of a PTQ?

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At a Legacy tournament a few years ago, Alex Bertoncini had registered Manriki-Gusari in his sideboard as tech against other Stoneforge decks. This was during the days of three-round byes at SCG events, so Alex used the time to put together his deck. It was common for players to register decklists they didn’t have all the cards for yet. (This still happens today.) He discovered that not a single vendor on site had a copy of the card available. He began asking players on the floor if they had a copy. He eventually managed to find someone that had the card in his binder. “Great,” Alex said. “It’s in my sideboard for the Legacy open and I’ll get a game loss  and lose a sideboard slot without it. What do you want for it?” The player smiled. The card cost maybe $1 on TCG at the time. “Twenty-five dollars.” Alex paid. Was it worth it?

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I’m known at my local store as a finance guy, and subsequently get asked how much cards cost frequently. “Travis, how much is Courser worth?” I’m never quite sure how to answer this question. Worth is a funny concept. We’re so used to bandying the term around, but what does it really mean? When I’m asked “how much is Tarmogoyf worth now” what am I supposed to draw upon to answer that? Take a look at the price of Tarmogoyf on Starcity and TCGPlayer.

Capture

Capture1

The exact same card, exact same condition, is $200 at SCG and $185 on TCG. The question remains: it worth $200 or $185? Sitting in front of your computer right now, knowing that the card is available for those two prices, what is the right answer? One could argue that SCG’s higher price reflects their customer service, reliability, and all the other intangibles. But does that affect the actual value of the card? If you’re talking about trading for a Tarmogoyf at a local Modern event should SCG’s additional services dictate that you throw another Courser of Kruphix into the pile?

Why does a Modern Masters Tarmogoyf cost over $165 while a Swordwise Centaur is left behind on card tables worldwide without a single thought given to keeping it? They’re the same quality of cardboard. If you manage to wring all the ink out of the cards you’ll find that neither uses appreciably more. The actual physical presence of the cards, disconnected from whatever demand Magic players place on them, is essentially identical. Without people to place different amounts of external demand on the cards they are worth the same. To say a Tarmogoyf is worth $200 while a Swordwise Centaur is worth $.02 means that there is much more to worth than the physical components. This seems obvious enough, but it has implications that we don’t always appreciate.

Take the young girl from the example above. She wants that Hellkite something fierce. The card represents something that many of us find incredibly difficult to experience after so much time invested in the game. Money means little to her. Cards are valued based on how easily they kill the opponent and how many kids in her grade own a copy. Utvara Hellkite is a card spoken of as a legend amongst her peers. She would immediately have the best deck of all her friends were she to acquire the dragon. The Temple of Enlightenment is essentially valueless. She will never use it. It will collect dust, the edges exposed to wear as it is jostled around in shoeboxes and backpacks. Eventually it will be thrown out when she moves on from the game and her father is cleaning out the attic. To her the dragon is easily worth more than the land. The dragon represents all that is exciting about Magic. But the Temple? What does she care? In her eyes the answer is crystal clear: The dragon is worth far more than the land.

The reason why an object’s worth is so difficult to pinpoint is that it is entirely contextual. If you’re just doing some light trading at an FNM, a Scalding Tarn is probably ‘worth’ the $80 MTGPrice says it is. When it’s early Saturday morning fifteen minutes before the PTQ starts and you still need one for your deck, I bet it’s ‘worth’ more than just the $80 to you. You’d trade $85, $90, maybe even $100 or more for it if it’s necessary for your deck. I remember paying $2 apiece on Might of Old Krosa’s at GP Chicago last year when they were $.40 on TCG because even though I was paying five times what I would online, in that moment they were easily worth the markup because without them I couldn’t play Magic.

Value is found in all of this by identifying what worth means to others. Aside from the most veteran traders, most of us have cards in mind that are worth more than their sticker price indicates. It’s a card we really need to finish foiling an EDH deck or it’s the last dual to finish a playset for an in-the-works Legacy deck. Whatever it is, when we find it we’re often willing to give up more than retail because having the card in our possession is worth more than the markup we pay to acquire it.

Worth is more than the dollar value assigned to a card by any given retailer. Worth includes the time, the day, the location, the temporal necessity, the experience, the story. Understanding in what ways worth is transient and nuanced will help you make better trades and purchases.

Humility is $17.11 on MTGPrice right now. Courser of Kruphix is $16.30. Which card is worth more? Which would you rather have in your binder on Friday at 5:45pm?

The Gilded Goblin

Bulking to Buy Lists

1 Comment

By: Jared Yost

I’ve heard others ask me from time to time “What is the best way for me to get rid of all these extra basic lands, commons, and uncommons that I never use!?” Bulking them out to a store that isn’t in driving distance may not occur to them. Believe it or not, there are several ways that you can bulk out pretty much any extra card you might have and still wind up with some value at the end of the transaction. It will require a ton of work on your part, in addition to the massive shipping fees you will incur if you are unable to do this without a local store to get rid of bulk, however it is a way to get rid of your dregs without having to worry that no one is going to buy it.

Many times, players who try to sell their extra cards in bulk to stores will either not be able to sell it or receive an abysmally low offer that barely factors in the time and gas they put into taking the cards to the store. Selling them online is another avenue you can pursue if your local venues for selling bulk are either nonexistent or do not seem appealing. Let me show you some of the prices various buy lists I’ve researched offer.

CoolStuffInc.com 

(Click Magic, then Bulk Magic)

We’re making razor thin margins selling cards to buy lists in the first place, so it is a good thing that CoolStuffInc offers us several ways of organizing our collection so that we can get a little more money for having piles of cards that fit certain criteria that they are looking for. By doing this, they give us an incentive to help better target cards for their store and also reward us by giving a dollar or few cents more per bundle than we otherwise would have gotten if we just bulked them all together into one generic package.

For example, if I had 200 bulk rares from Tempest and Urza’s block I could separate those out and receive $24 for those by themselves. If I just sent in 400 rares without doing this, I would have received only $40 instead of $44. If you’re in the habit of moving large collections a lot then this is a lot of money that is left on the table for something that doesn’t really take all that much time to sort. That extra $4 pays for a good portion of you shipping those cards to CoolStuffInc.

Overall, I like this bulk buy list. If you have experience using it feel free to leave a comment and let me know what was your experience was selling bulk to CoolStuffInc.

ABU Games

Compared to CoolStuffInc, ABU Games doesn’t have a lot of options. This doesn’t mean that it is necessarily bad to buy list at ABU. They do offer 25% trade in value for items in their buy list compared to the normal 20% trade in credit for CoolStuffInc (however, this month CoolStuffInc has a special where they are offering 25% trade in credit).

Since ABU is such a large store they have the option of listing out all the non-foil commons and uncommons they want and just buying those up on an individual basis rather than picking through bulk. The rest they can receive through the sheer amount of product they are opening on a daily basis. I would only recommend using this buy list if there is something you want to purchase at ABU that you can use the trade in value.

One thing I do like about this buy list is that they are buying played cards in bulk. This way you don’t have to worry about not being able to sell cards that aren’t NM if you decide to sell bulk to ABU.

Troll and Toad

I like that Troll and Toad buy common / uncommon mixes by the card rather than per thousand. This way, if I just have a random box of stuff I want to sell them I just have to count up my cards and not worry about sorting them into thousand card piles. It may appear to be a rip-off since they are listing cards at less than one cent each. However, that still gives us $2.50 per thousand with a 25% trade in bonus. Not bad if you have been eyeing something for sale on Troll and Toad and want to make your useless cards help pay for it.

One item to note is that T&T is paying $0.60 per bulk mythic and $1.05 per bulk mythic rare, which is really high compared to most other shops on this list. The other side to this coin is that they only pay $0.07 per rare, which is lower than most vendors would give.

ChannelFireball

Simliar to ABU, ChannelFireball has a lot of stock so they aren’t in the market to pick up commons and uncommons as much as the other stores. They do buy bulk commons and uncommons but for only $1.30 per thousand which is much lower than we’ve seen with other buy lists. Also, they don’t offer their legendary 30% trade in discount to bulk which is disappointing.

Generally, their bulk buy list isn’t anything special. Most prices are the same or worse than other buy lists mentioned so far.

Armadagames

Armadagames has below average bulk prices compared to the other stores I’ve mentioned. No discount that I saw. Not worth it here unless you live close enough to drive to them and drop the cards off yourself. This way, the amount you save in shipping might be worth selling to them lower than you get at another website.

Oasis Games

Oasis offer a pretty decent price for bulk commons and uncommons if you have a lot of them to get rid of with a 15% store credit. The rest of the numbers unfortunately are lacking compared to other vendors.

Millennium Games

Below most other vendors listed with no discount for bulk. Not really a buy list I want to go to but still available if you are within driving distance to where of their physical location.

CCGhouse

CCGHouse buys really old cards at very high bulk prices. Who knew $20 was bulk? Pretty awesome if you’ve got a lot of Alpha rares around just waiting buy listed…

For the rest of us mere mortals who don’t have a ton of Alpha rares, there are other options. Bulk Foil basic lands are $0.10 each which is pretty high. They actually specifically list Time Shifted purple cards as bulk too, in case you happen to have a lot of those.

Their only downside is you don’t get store credit for selling to their buy list. Still, I really like that they break out their buy list so much just like CoolStuffInc. This makes it so that you have opportunity to get value out of organizing your collection.

Hotsauce

Similar to CCGHouse, Hotsauce buys foil basic lands at $0.10 each which is fairly high for that category. Unfortunately, their other categories for bulk are either the same or lower than other vendors.

How to Ship

This article that I found on Quietspeculation.com, though four years old at this point (for example a medium flat rate box is now $12.35 to ship), still provides us with valuable information about how much 1,000 Magic cards weighs and has excellent estimated costs for shipping a collection. I highly recommend that you read this article if you are going to be bulking out 1,000’s of cards at a time to some of the vendors I mentioned above. If you do, you will find the best way to maximize your profit by cutting down on your shipping costs.

Way of the Bulk

Each vendor seems to take their own approach to how their buy list is organized. Vendors like Hotsauce and Millennium Games offer simplicity to out your bulk while websites like CoolStuffInc and CCGHouse are much more in-depth about what they are looking for and are willing to pay you to search through and organize your collection by finding very specific items for you to sell to them. 

Would I recommend this approach over going to a Grand Prix or other large tournament in your area and walking around to each vendor to get the best quote? Yes and no.

I would say yes to this if you have a ton of cards that you know are bad and fit the criteria that falls into each of these buy lists. You know that when you take this box to a dealer at a GP or other large tournament, it is almost guaranteed that they will take a look at the first 100 cards in your box and go “Uh, no thanks.”

The pitfall to this is that your shipping costs are really going to eat at your profit margins when bulking to websites. Though riskier, at least you have a chance of outing your bulk without paying for shipping if you go to a large tournament and try to pass it off to a dealer. You’re still paying for gas and using your time in this case. Yet, time is something you’ll use anyways trying to sort your bulk according to the various ways that the online vendors want them arranged.

What do you guys do when you bulk out cards that you’ll never play with? Have you been using these online sources or doing it mostly in person? What in your experience has been more profitable?

Uncategorized

Weekend Recap for 5/31/14

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By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Martyr’s Bond (Commander)
From $1.74 to $2.00 (14.94%)

I got really excited when I read this the first time. I dreamed of a Grave Pact effect that could extend to all sorts of permanents.

Using a Planeswalker’s ultimate ability would get rid of opposing Planeswalkers.

Artifacts and enchantments could be sacrificed for good effect.

That is magical Christmas land. If someone wants to trade you for this at $2 then I say jump at it.

It is too expensive and unreliable unless you build combos around it. You could usually just use Planar Cleansing to get the desired effect without all of the work.

The name is generic enough that this could show up in any set. I think the honeymoon is over.

9. Apocalypse (Tempest)
From $3.09 to $3.59 (16.18%)

It is a rare from an old set on the reserve list. It has a massive impact in multiplayer games and it currently buylists for $0.24 more than you can buy it for.

I would grab as many $2 copies as you could find before everyone updates the price to $4.

8. Shirei, Shizo’s Caretaker (Betrayers of Kamigawa)
From $2.29 to $2.73 (19.21%)

He is a great budget Commander from a set that was printed long ago. He has an interesting effect and works well with other Commanders has well. His flavor makes him difficult to reprint outside of supplemental products.

He can still be found for $1.48 and Buylists for almost $2.

I really cannot make a better recommendation than that.

Remember he is insane as a build around me or as the Commander for a Shadowborn Apostle decks. The Apostles will be rotating soon. I would look to grab as many as you can find if they dip in price.

7. Nin, the Pain Artist (Commander)
From $2.68 to $3.31 (23.51%)

Every time I read this card I want to play it with Stuffy Doll and Mogg Maniac.

All of the original Commanders are being targeted due to scarcity and growth in the interest in the format.

She can get you cards, play as repeatable removal and is one of the many cards that is only better with Nekusar.

Due to only using two instead of three colors she is easier to reprint as Basandra, Battle Seraph has shown us in Conspiracy.

Nin, the Pain Artist is still priced to move. I would look at Ruhan of the Fomori and Zedruu the Greathearted for other cheap Commanders with room to grow.

6. Konda’s Banner (Champions of Kamigawa)
From $4.07 to $5.13 (26.04%)

This is an excellent Commander card. You always have a Legendary creature ready to equip it that shares a color with every other creature in your deck.

Even with a minor tribal thing this can be very helpful.

This has been growing slowly but steadily until recently.

It is difficult to reprint outside of a supplemental product because its name is tied to a character on a very unpopular plane.

This is something I would be glad to have in my trade binder.

There is a negative spread on this which is an excellent opportunity for arbitrage or aggressive growth in the near future.

5. Courser of Kruphix (Born of the Gods)
From $9.99 to $13.14 (31.53%)

Courser of Kruphix has been making its mark on Standard and Legacy.

Courser and Domri Rade or Archangel of Thune can make for some exciting turns.

It has also been played to good effect in Modern Jund decks.

This is part of what has pushed it to the next level. It requires a heavy commitment to green or excellent mana fixing so I think it will definitely surpass $15 but I don’t think it will hit the $20 mark without some serious help from M15.

Born of the Gods will not be drafted as heavily as normal with Conspiracy being such a hyped event. I think this will help Courser of Kruphix.

I would sell into the hype just after it crests $15. You make not make all of the money but if you got these in a draft or back when these were $5 to $6 you should be sitting pretty.

I would hold onto foils for Modern as those keep their value better.

4. Memory Jar  (Urza’s Legacy)
From $4.22 to $5.59 (32.46%)

What can I say about a card so powerful it was the subject of an emergency ban mere weeks after it was printed?

It is somehow so broken that it made it into From the Vault: Relics despite being on the reserved list.

It is restricted in Vintage but for is legal in Commander.

It is completely insane in normal situations but when you make each player draw seven cards Nekusar the Mindrazer starts salivating.

This no longer enables crazy combos. Now it enables widespread death and destruction.

Many players of MTGO will be giving this card a spin as part of Vintage Masters and that can only enhance interested.

I don’t think you can lose trading for these. They will always have a home in Cubes and Vintage.

3. Breathstealer’s Crypt (Visions)
From $0.99 to $1.36 (37.37%)

This little known rare from Visions is on the reserved list. Most people (myself included) did not even remember that it exists.

It is excellent for a Nekusar the Mindrazer Commander deck but also works in other Dimir or Grixis Control decks.

It has only started getting attention and some places still have it listed below dollar. Others have it as $2 on its way to $3.

It currently has a negative spread meaning some Buylists are paying more than the lowest price you can purchase it at.

We have already seen Nekusar cause rises in price in a number of rares and this one can still be found cheap.

I would suggest striking while the iron is hot.

2. Nether Shadow (5th Edtion)
From $2.30 to $3.29 (43.04%)

Manaless Dredge continues to be one of the most affordable ways to give Legacy a try. It works on a completely different axis as most decks.

Instead of generating card advantage through drawing cards it actively tries to mill its entire deck then Dredge Return a Flayer of the Hatebound in a gigantic Golgari Grave-Troll.

It has some ways to fight through traditional graveyard hate like Deathrite Shaman and makes your opponents Wastelands look like a joke.

Nether Shadow and an ever increasing graveyard make playing cards like Cabal Therapy and Dread Return easy to do.

I expect all of the cheaper components of the deck to continue to rise as this deck catches on.

The deck plays a lot of commons, uncommon and budget rares. I would grab some cheap foils like Flayer of the Hatebound and Balustrade Spy. Their effects are essential to the deck and difficult to replace.

1. Decree of Pain (Commander’s Arsenal)
From $6.94 to $9.99 (43.95%)

When you are building a Cube or making a Commander deck you want powerful and unique cards that jump out and make a splash. There are few ways to shift the momentum of a game than to wipe the board and load up your hand at the same time.

Both of these formats love their foil cards and there are only two ways to get your fix.

You can get the original Scourge foil or for a third the cost you can get the new artwork from Commander’s Arsenal.

I had discounted this card because of the amount of copies flooding the market from the Mind Seize Commander 2013 deck. They were not foil but they were exerting a lot of downward pressure on the existing copies.

Once players get into the format after tinkering with their ninety eight card decks they want to start pimping their decks. When they do this will be the copy they target.

I see this one continuing to climb. There are still some other targets from Commander’s Arsenal that are available at low costs. I am looking at possible Commanders Vela the Night-Clad, Diaochan, Artful Beauty and Edric, Spymaster of Trest which has been seeing some Legacy play and has come down considerably recently.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Necropotence (5th Edition)
From $8.39 to $7.86 (-6.32%)

Last week I said the only foil copy of this card was the one from From the Vault: Exiled.

Several readers kept me honest by reminding me that the Deckmasters copy has the original art and is one of the few foils printed in that set. Thank you readers!

This card was recently reprinted online in Vintage Masters. It is a great candidate for any monoblack build in Cube or Commander. It is restricted in Vintage but any casual deck will welcome it through the end of time. I see this as a hiccup.

It is a part of Magic’s history as well as being completely broken. This will always be a safe buy and hold.

4. Mutavault (M14)
From $29.40 to $27.48 (-6.53%)

Mutavault has been one of the most played cards its entire time in Standard. It was around $33 before it was reprinted in M14 and I think that price memory counts for a lot.

It is still used in several Modern decks including Merfolk, Faeries and others.

I don’t think it will have quite as rocky a road as most cards do upon rotation but I think picking them up at $15 to $20 around rotation is quite realistic.

Anyone who plays Standard but not Modern will probably be trying to get these out of their binders soon. This could be a good opportunity for someone who is willing to wait a few years for prices to get above $30 again.

3. Misdirection (Mercadian Masques)
From $29.98 to $27.54 (-8.14%)

This rare is played a surprise in Legacy decks like Sneak and Show and Cephalid Breakfast.

Your LGS is about to get an influx of them as Conspiracy is drafted.

I expect the original foils to retain most of their value but I suspect the regular printing will be taking a bath. I would move them sooner rather than later.

2. Domri Rade (Gatecrash)
From $19.99 to $17.37 (-13.11%)

Domri Rade still has some fight in him. As mentioned above he is best friends with Courser of Kruphix. They two together provide a stream of card advantage.

His time in Standard is coming to an end. He has not seen much adoption in Modern yet.

He is a strong planeswalker and will always retain some casual appeal but I expect him to dip below $10 in the coming months.

I would get rid of him.

1. True-Name Nemesis (Commander 2013)
From $29.98 to $24.78 (-17.34%)

True-Name Nemesis was recently featured in the winning deck in the SCG Somerset Legacy Open. There were ten out of a possible thirty two copies in the Top 8 alone.

So why the dip?

It’s been a rough month for the fish.

The first reason is simple supply and demand.

Stores can order two copies of Mind Seize for and three other Commander 2013 decks instead of just one of each. Wizards has made Mind Seize a box full of value but it is no longer a $20 bill sitting on the shelf that leaves you with ninety eight free cards.

The second reason is that Conspiracy has announced card called Council’s Judgement which can just exile him despite protection, shroud or hexproof. For the price of an Oblivion Ring you can vote for any nonland permanent and exile it in a duel.

I expect it to shake up the Legacy metagame.

True-Name Nemesis is still a strong player but the invulnerable just became vulnerable. The $40 days are over. I expect it to settle around $15 to $20 depending on the metagame.

Casual Fridays

The Foil Gap

3 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle

For many people, there’s no point or value in dealing with foils. They are just shiny versions of a card that is needed for a deck. If you don’t care, though, you’re missing out on a financial opportunity, especially for the casual markets.

Interestingly, foils were introduced before Cubing was invented, and before EDH was formalized…and those formats have really driven foil prices up.

Because two of the major casual formats require only one of a given card, the thinking is that you might as well make it foil. Foiling out a deck or a Cube is an undertaking, a project that people feel passionate about. Combine those factors, add a touch of collector fever, and you get casual cards that are FAR more valuable in foil than regular.

There is another factor at play when it comes to acquiring foils as long-term investments: reprints. The only time that foils were done in large amounts was the Premium Deck Series, and the all-foil Alara packs, ideas that won’t be used again. This means that reprints will either be nonfoil, judge foils, or in new art when they are put into boosters again.

Your investment in foils will be rather safe…and might go up a lot!

kjh

The Fountain was ticking upwards despite being in Return to Ravnica, because the original set foil was that much rarer.

Even Modern Masters hasn’t made a dent in most foils.

cotv

This is notable because the original set foil has the same art and the same wording…but costs twice as much just for a different set symbol! That’s the power of being a collector.

Generally, the foil to non-foil multiplier is two to three times the price. If a card is $1, the foil should be around $2-$3. Mythics may or may not have a bigger gap. The more formats a card is played in, especially Eternal ones like Legacy, Vintage, or Modern, the more the gap will be due to players wanting to pimp out their decks.

Let’s take a look at one of the biggest gaps in recent years: Abrupt Decay.

The regular one is about $13 right now, while the foil has a value of $90. Ninety dollars. You could have bought this for $30 for more than a year after its debut. I know for a fact that multiple people were trumpeting Decay as a foil spec and now the ship has sailed. This high gap is because of the eternal playability of the card, because it’s nearly universal and dodges all the counterspells that are played in such formats.

Today, I want to go through some cards that have a larger or smaller gap, and explore if that is going to get better or worse over time.

Shocklands ($10-15/$30-50) – Considering that these got a little bit of a bump in nonfoil, thanks to Dragon’s Maze and some Event Decks, the price on foil shocks has not gone up significantly…yet. These are a very good candidate to start an upward trajectory. Not a huge spike, but a gradual increase as they are put into Cubes/Commander decks and kept there, lowering the supply. I’ve been trying like hell to trade for these before they go any higher.

Boros Charm ($3/$10) – The gap is normal, but the use isn’t. This sees a lot of Modern play as a two-mana, four-damage Burn spell. It’s also amazing in casual formats for saving everything of yours from sweepers. I’ve got a spare foil playset in addition to three foils in different decks, and I’m happy with this potential.

Chromatic Lantern ($4/$24) – SHHHHH! Not everyone is aware that this is such a sought-after foil. It’s only the best fixer ever, and colorless, and an accelerator. I’d be on board with picking this up now, as there’s a good chance it clears $30 before the end of summer.

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben ($7/$41) – This little lady sees play all over the place. She’s not an EDH fixture, but there are hatebear decks all over Eternal and this is one of the best, making Brainstorm a 1U spell and adding mana to the ‘free’ cost of Force of Will. This is another that’s only going to go up, because as a small set between two large ones, there’s a rather short supply of her in foil.

Thespian’s Stage ($1.50/$14) – Look at the price difference between the foil and the regular. Nine times the price gets my attention. That’s a sign of strong casual appeal. If you only need one of a card (for an EDH deck or a Cube) then you might as well make it foil. I do not expect this to go much lower, because all of its appeal is casual. Only cards with high prices due to Standard are going to crater at rotation.

Gray Merchant of Asphodel ($.50/$4.50) – Your eyes do not play tricks; that is indeed a $4 foil common. Zombies are one of the most popular casual tribes out there, and this guy is amazing. What makes this stand out just a little more is that Zombies and black decks are very good at mass reanimation, especially in EDH. If the Merchant comes back at the same time as three or four other Zombies, the devotion will be good for seven or so. I’ve drained an EDH game for fifteen each, and it was worth being targeted for the rest of the game. The foil is $4 now, but it’ll creep up over time.

I’m going to leave you with a set of speculations that are rather safe, and have big-time potential. Foil Onslaught fetchlands. If these ever get put into Standard, that makes them Modern legal as well. The old frame will command a premium, and foils of that doubly so. I know there are judge foils out there, and those are spicy too if you don’t want to shell out $400+ for a foil Polluted Delta. The supply on these is very small, and there are already Legacy decks shelling out for these. Even if they never make it into Modern, they are going to be a safe place to stash value for a while.

Join me next week when I cover what you should be going after in Conspiracy!

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