Sticker Shock – Higher Prices, but Will They Stay?

By: Jared Yost

Magic cards going up in price, you don’t say? I’ve noticed quite a few trending cards over the past week and we’re going to delve a bit deeper to see if the hype circus has come to town again or if these prices have actually corrected themselves.

Legacy

Rishadan Port

So, uh, it looks like that new $100 price point is going to stick after all for Rishadan Port. As of Friday, Starcity is still sold out of Ports at $100. TCGPlayer sellers are listing them at a minimum of $105 a copy, which means that either a buyout of Port has occurred at the $70 entry point (not likely), or the popularity of decks it is featured in has reached new highs (most likely). A buyout at $70 seems completely unrealistic to me, as the buy-in price is way too high to capitalize on when selling back into the market even at $100-$120 (which is probably where Port will settle in the near future). Foils are still an absurd at $500 – or $1500 if you want a Japanese foil. Just to put that in perspective, foil Polluted Delta’s are around $460. Delta is played in 40% of Legacy decks as opposed to Port which is played in 9%. Based on popularity alone it seems wrong that Port should be more expensive. One reason I can think of is that Mercadian Masques is an older set and the potential for foils to be lost or destroyed is much higher than for Onslaught-era cards. Another reason is that fewer Masques packs were opened over Onslaught since the set was so underpowered compared to the previous Urza’s block.

The rise in popularity of both Death and Taxes and Lands have made Rishadan Port absurdly expensive. I don’t see it coming down from this new high. I guess there is always the small chance of a reprint, since it is within the grace window of Masques through Scourge where the Reserved List does not apply (although at the same time the sets are not present in the Modern format).

 

Meddling Mage

Meddling Mage

Meddling Mage has seen a resurgence of play in Legacy due to the popularity of Patriot Aggro (though I believe this is a misnomer since the deck usually only runs 10 creatures, 4 Delver of Secrets, 4 Stoneforge Mystic, and 2 True-Name Nemesis with Meddling Mage in the board), Stoneblade, and Bant archetypes. The mage is typically run as a playset throughout the deck and sideboard combined, so the demand is high when she / he is needed. The upward trending price of $5 seems fair to me because both versions were printed in smaller secondary / tertiary sets. Expect Meddling Mage to retain this price going forward until the next reprint.

 

City of Traitors

City of Traitors

Another land that is taking off. Be honest, are any of you surprised that this land has risen? It has been sitting at around $35-$40 for the longest time and is now correcting in price to a new high of $55-$60. It has always been played in several legacy archetypes like Sneak and Show, Tezzerator, Imperial Painter, and MUD. Only one printing. The perfect factors for a price correction. The new high of $55-$60 will continue to be its price, and in the future I expect City to keep trending upwards. This land is on the Reserved List so they will be only getting rarer and rarer as the years go on.

 

Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas

Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas

With his own Legacy archetype to his name, this version of Tezzeret packs quite the punch in Legacy and could even make waves in Modern if the right deck opportunities present themselves. Right now though, his main format that he shines in is Legacy, and he does so not only through Tezz Control (which also made Transmute Artifact spike), but also Affinity where he can provide the necessary long-term advantage that the deck otherwise sorely lacks. The reprint boogeyman is always a possibility (especially with Planeswalkers because they can so easily be thrown into a Duel Deck), but I doubt we’ll see a reprint of this Tezzeret for quite a while since we already have the original Tezzeret that keeps getting reprinted. He is also from a small set, which means that the new price of around $20 will be sticking.

 

Modern

Cryptic Command

Cryptic Command

The premier counterspell of Modern, Cryptic Command has seen another upswing in price due the unbanning of Bitterblossom and the potential for the Fae to be a new fighting force in the format. Cryptic Command has always been sweet in Modern so I don’t see any reason why it would be less than $40 going into Modern season. I’m not sure how much higher this card could go, but I doubt it would be worth it to pick up extras. Get your playset in preparation for Modern season but don’t go out of your way to try and and acquire any extras as I’m not sure if there is any more potential for this go much higher due to the anticipated popularity of Zoo and other new non-blue archetypes.

 

Bloodghast

Bloodghast

Bloodghast is actually relevant in Modern now that Deathrite Shaman is banned. Along with cards like Vengevine, I can already see a new graveyard brew starting to form in the minds of pros and FNM grinders alike. Rather than trying to go deep on something like Vengevine, why not try to pick up some Bloodghasts at the much lower buy-in price of $7? These have the potential of doubling up once Modern season starts if there is even a whiff of a graveyard brew doing well that utilizes him. These types of cards are exactly where I want to be when trying to find undervalued rares, as they aren’t that hard to get into and don’t have much of chance of going down in price. (Dredge is a real deck in Vintage, in addition to the casual popularity of Bloodghast.)

 

Cavern of Souls

Cavern of Souls

Cavern is starting its trend upwards, which is exactly what I expected. This land is so powerful it’s not even funny. It nerfs blue players in Modern and hoses plenty of decks in Legacy, but most important of all it allows me (and all the other casuals) to play a five color sliver deck without having to worry about having my slivers being countered all the time! So awesome!

But seriously, pick up your Caverns if you haven’t yet. I believe you will come to regret it if you don’t as I don’t see them ever getting any cheaper than they are now.

 

Æther Vial Lord of Atlantis Threads of Disloyalty

Aether Vial
Lord of Atlantis
Threads of Disloyalty

I guess people are seriously starting to brew with Merfolk in Modern, as two of its core pieces are trending upwards and Threads continues to spike the closer to Modern season we get. All three are great in the Merfolk deck for different reasons.

Aether Vial is one of the deck’s backbones as it essentially acts as a pseudo-mox that allows you to play your Merfolk at instant speed.

The Time Shifted version of Lord of Atlantis is now nearing $7 which is noticeably more than its white bordered brothers from 4th through 7th edition. I guess having an all black bordered deck is more important to players, so watch out for any time shifted versions of Lord of Atlantis you might see.

Threads of Disloyalty was already known by many to be a great card in Modern, but unbanning Wild Nacatl just made it more awesome in the new format against the many possible Zoo decks Merfolk or other blue decks could face. Expect the $30 it is now commanding to stick until the next reprint.

 

Standard

Archangel of Thune Courser of Kruphix

Archangel of Thune
Courser of Kruphix

Archangel of Thune has risen in price because of the new centaur Courser of Kruphix and her interaction with landfalling to gain one life in order to pump up your team. I think a lot of people are picking her up in anticipation of someone breaking this interaction, in either a G/W shell or in a Bant shell that may utilize Kiora or Prophet of Kruphix.

Unfortunately since Starcitygames Somerset was canceled last weekend there wasn’t any new data to let us know if the Gruul Aggro deck with 4x Courser that placed second at Nashville is the real deal or not. Continue following Twitter and other hot sources for further updates as the next major tournament weekend comes.

I’m still quite keen on Ephara performing well so be on the lookout for her too in addition to any action these two cards are able to provide.

Commander / Casual

Cataclysm

Cataclysm

It appears that one of the most devastating cards in the Commander format is starting to trend upwards in price. What gives? I thought casuals hated land destruction and massive Armageddonlike effects? This upswing might have something to do with the card seeing marginal play in the sideboards of a few Death and Taxes decks in Legacy. (Note: Cataclysm is not on the reserved list – this could be a perfect candidate for the new FTV: Annihilation set coming up.) I would not buy into this card at current price of $10 – I believe it is bound to go down because land destruction is looked upon unfavorably in casual formats and the card really has not seen a lot of Legacy action outside of a few showings as a one or two of in Death and Taxes. Sell into the hype.

 

Skullclamp

Skullclamp

Skullclamp is trending upwards to around $5 per copy. I’m surprised it has taken this long to increase in price – even though it is banned in every format except for Vintage and Commander, it does see an extraordinary amount of play in Commander due to the fact that is the best equipment artifact ever printed for aggro decks. $5 is a fair price for Skullclamp. It has taken this long for it to get to $5 so I don’t expect it to go up any time soon in the future. If you have any extra copies, feel free to trade them out as it is going to take a while for this artifact to make the next price jump. In the mean time though, Darksteel foils seem like a pretty good deal if you can find them for $15.

 

Exquisite Blood

Exquisite Blood

The casual all-star that never seems to quit going up in value, Exquisite Blood has now reached a new high of $6. Call me crazy, but I feel like this card is the perfect candidate for a core set reprint just like Sanguine Bond. If you like playing with Exquisite Blood, keep your copies and enjoy the fun you will have activating Vizkopa Guildmage’s second ability and winning instantly. If this card means nothing to you, ignore it, as any price increases it makes at this point will only put you behind if you try to out them in the future. Everyone else, look for any extra copies you have and trade them out to pick up other Modern staples that you can play at your shop.

 

Blightsteel Colossus Silent-Blade Oni

Blightsteel Colossus
Silent-Blade Oni

Blightsteel Colossus has taken the jump to $15 (up from $10 last week, and way up from a low of $4 when it was in Standard) which is not surprising since it is one of the Timmy-ist cards ever created. I mean, look at how awesome that guy is! One hit and you’re dead! No wonder legacy MUD runs a copy or two that it ramps up to, equips a Lightning Greaves to, and goes to town. But we know the real reason why Blightsteel is so high, because of Commander and all the casuals that want to Tinker it out in their 60 card decks. Keep a good watch on Blightsteel; I don’t think it is done rising in price. I don’t think it can’t go too much higher than the the current $15 it commands but with Modern you never know. It could become the win condition of a random Woo Brew again.

On the other hand, Silent-Blade Oni is strictly a casual card with the popular Ninjutsu effect that players love to see from time to time. He has increased slightly to $5 but I would not be trading for extra copies of this guy any time soon. He is strictly a casual card and won’t see much growth in the short term because he isn’t played in any competitive formats. There are better options to trade for that have more potential to go up further.

Wrap Up

Lots have cards have changed across basically every format, and the consensus is that these prices are here to stay with the possible exception being Cataclysm (though I am discovering that price memory is a very strong force within the Magic community which prevents overpriced cards from coming down faster than they should). Expect all the cards I’ve mentioned to maintain their new prices for the foreseeable future, and expect one or two them to even keep trending upwards.

EDH Bannings and Fun

By: Cliff Daigle

I do not consider myself proficient at very many things, but I am very good with the concepts of EDH: the methods of deck construction, the spirit of the format, and the wide range of things that are allowed in the search for fun. Staff of Domination

Any financier, casual or professional, has to understand the casual formats in order to grok why on earth some cards have the price they do. It’s important to understand that while Magic has all sorts of constructed awesomeness, it’s still mainly a friendly, casual, kitchen-table game. In fact, that’s been the key to its success: appealing to such a wide swath of players. Constructed formats cause price spikes, while casual stars see slow and steady growth.

Today, I want to help you understand a little more about EDH and its principles, so you can see why the Rules Committee bans and unbans what it does. I gained good value picking up Kokusho before its unbanning, and I made a little selling into the Staff of Domination hype at its unbanning.

At its heart, Commander is all about interaction and experience. It was put together by judges who wanted to play swingy, splashy, uninhibited Magic. It is a way to unwind and to explore the quirky side ideas that have come up in this game.

There are some common tropes. Every EDH player considers a tribal deck at some point. Every player thinks about random deck ideas: an all-creature, or no-creature, or only certain sorts of art, or a deck designed to win via infinite combos. We often give thought to foiling out a deck, or making it all foreign, or if you’re Judge Emeritus Sheldon Menery, you embark on a foil Italian deck.

I would be remiss if I didn’t include Cube players with EDH players. There’s a lot of similarities, from the number of certain cards needed to the desire to make your interpretation unique.

One of the key features of Commander decks, and therefore a financially relevant idea, is that all sorts of play styles are possible. Are you a griefer? A combo savant? Do you only cast spells that cost more than eight mana? Whatever you’re into, EDH can provide. The founders recognized that fun is defined very differently from person to person, and don’t try to legislate that. Sakura-Tribe Elder

What they do legislate is imbalance, but they do so very selectively. Primeval Titan and his cousin Sylvan Primordial allow for huge mana gains, and are easy to abuse.

The issue that comes up when there’s a banning in EDH is this: they don’t try to ban infinite-combo cards. There’s no way to ban all of those without a banlist a mile long. Plus, they want to allow you that way of playing, if you and your play group enjoy that. What they tend to come down on are cards that are impossible to use ‘fairly’.

Allow me this example. Before PT got banned, it was in most green decks. As was Green Sun’s Zenith. I know that I would cast GSZ for three and get Sakura-Tribe Elder, or scrape by until I got to seven mana to get the Titan. It was simply the best thing I could do, and everyone at the table knew it. Getting the Titan or the Primordial out is such a huge swing, and sets up “waiting to die” board states.

Whenever a card is banned, the refrain goes up. “Why wasn’t [CARDNAME] banned too?!?!” Very often in forums, the cited card is Palinchron. This thing exists for no reason except to generate infinite mana. All you need is one land that generates two or more mana, and you’re infinite. It is not banned because infinite shenanigans is part of the game. Plus, with Palinchron, an instant-speed kill spell with the untap on the stack will solve the problem. There’s too many infinite combos to hate them all away. (Hi there, Kiki-Jiki!)

So what’s the financial bonus to knowing how these casual formats work?

The most relevant idea is that these players aren’t getting cards to trade. We trade for or buy a card in order to put it in a deck and keep it there. This cuts down on the number of that card in circulation, and inflates the price.

Case in point: the San Diego Comic-Con Planeswalkers. There is no hard data on the number made available, but those who got them either flipped them for immediate profit, are holding them to get more money later, or kept them for decks. It’s possible that some are simply showpieces in a collection, but these are not going to be found in random binders. Wild Growth

If you have one, you’re either playing it or keeping it until you’re ready to sell it. There are very few out there to be had. I’ve got an SDCC Garruk, and it’s in a deck and it’s staying there until I am desperate enough to sell pieces from my favorite EDH deck.

Another salient point is how often we build random casual decks and then just keep them in a box on a shelf. It’s not always worth the hassle to take decks apart. The high point for me was 15 EDH decks and that’s a lot to deal with. Several just sat unused for months at a time–few of us will get to play 15 Commander games in less than a month.

It’s a phenomenon not limited to Commander, though. We have a habit of putting old decks aside. I have a deck I built in 1999, jokingly called Turbo-Thallid, using those Fallen Empires cards to great extent, and using Earthcraft and Wild Growth and Fungal Bloom to power out lots of Saprolings. Thallids have gotten much better since, but I haven’t updated the deck in fourteen years. It’s a pet deck, and how would I even try to explain what format it’s for to new people? It’s not even Legacy-legal!

Rest assured, though: Earthcraft will eventually get unbanned in Legacy, and I’ll be happy to sell into that hype.

Where EDH shines as a format is when people find a common power level. If all of your friends enjoy counterspell wars and copying Time Warp, more power to you folks. If your Commander games end up as Giants vs. Faeries vs. Elves vs. Beasts, that’s awesome too. There’s no one way to play it.

What surprises many tournament players is how often Commander decks are deliberately underpowered. It’s more than skipping dual lands and fetch lands. It’s about leaving out cards that end the game abruptly, or lead to twenty-minute turns. In my Experiment Kraj deck, I don’t have any abilities that tap to add mana, because I have lots of untapping abilities. It’s no fun to me if I deliberately and consistently go infinite.

These games are not always about winning. These games are about the experience and the interaction. Mr. Menery said it best: “The secret of the format is not breaking it.”

Applying Statistical Analysis to the Modern B&R List Announcement

By: Camden Clark

There is a term in economics called “Head and Shoulders.” It is a way of evaluating a chart to predict an upswing in the prices of a stock or commodity. This is better described with a picture:

Gyazo

Here there are two shoulders and a head. There is an initial upswing that signifies the “left shoulder.” After this initial rally, prices decrease again to a reasonable reentry point. After prices decrease, there would be a second major rally where prices increase dramatically past the left shoulder point. This rally is called the head. After the peak of the head, people sell out. Finally, there is a third rally called the right shoulder.

How does this relate to magic finance?

It’s simple, we can use the same analysis to see how the secondary market reacts to events. This statistical method can help us see when cards are going to go up even more than they did at first, and at what price to buy in.

This has the most applicability to the recent modern changes. The banned and restricted announcement caused a mass run up on certain cards, one of them being Mistbind Clique. I do not think that these run ups are now the baseline prices. We will see a dip as there isn’t the REAL demand for these cards.

What do I mean by real demand? The kind of demand generated by players, not speculators.
When there is an unbanning like this, there are a ton of speculators who don’t want to hold these cards for the medium to long term as players, they simply want to generate a profit. This causes a bandwagon effect where prices of cards skyrocket to levels previously unseen.
The special thing about unbannings is that the pros haven’t been able to showcase decks that real players want to play. Real players haven’t seen “that deck” that has one of the unbanned cards. As a result, when the speculators sell out after making a profit, there is little real demand for those cards at those prices. As a result, the prices drop dramatically, waiting to rally when “that deck” shows up.

So where do pros showcase their decks?

At the pro tour of course.

Want some real proof of this?

The only unbanning we’ve had in recent years in Modern was Valakut, The Molten Pinnacle. Cards that had very specific interactions with Valakut but weren’t really playable otherwise were now VERY playable. These cards are ones like Scapeshift and Prismatic Omen. Let’s take a look at the graph of Scapeshift.

Scapeshift

Brilliantly, we can see a textbook head and shoulders formation. After the B&R announcement, there was a quick run-up on Scapeshift. This represents the left shoulder. In the weeks after the run up, prices decreased by almost 40%, only to increase back up to the point where the left shoulder left off. That represents the head. The price decreased again back down to the bottom level. After that, there was another rally around this card, and there was another run up. This was the right shoulder. This was on a narrow card like Scapeshift, which has little utility outside of the Valakut ramp deck. Prismatic Omen, unfortunately, did not follow this pattern. Let’s take a look:

Prismatic Omen

I can formulate some reasons why this card did not have the same potential for a rally:

  • Was only a 2 of in a narrow deck.
  • Some versions of the deck didn’t even run this card

What can we formulate from the lesson of Prismatic Omen? Don’t focus in on narrow cards. Cards that are targeted should be a four-of in a deck. They should be playable in many decks for risk prevention.

Now that we’ve looked at history, let’s look at the current cards. What would I recommend targeting around the pro tour?

First, go with your gut. I know I’m more focused on statistical analysis. But as magic players, we all have that sense of what’s “good” or not (some of us more than others). You should pay close attention to the Pro Tour coverage. This provides you with a literally instant way to find things to speculate on. Watch the match-ups.

The buzz factor is also important. Watch all the relevant hashtags. I like to watch #mtgfinance, #mtg and #mtgo. There are a few others, and there will be a pro tour hashtag to watch. (#PTBNG -ed) Listen to LSV. Listen to Travis Woo. Follow Michael Hetrick on Twitter. People with THAT kind of name power can really move cards. That’s how real demand is generated. People see their favorite pros playing or talking about a deck or card, and THEY want to get their hands on that card. Speculators generate a sort of artificial demand for cards to run up the prices. The lasting profit will come from people who actually play modern, or are looking for cards for the PTQ season in the summer.

This is also the time to make some long term bets. We are looking at cards that have the potential to double or triple by PTQ season. These are mostly cyclical.

What would I be paying very close attention to?

Restoration Angel

Restoration Angel

This card is TOO cheap. There is little reason this card should be five dollars with how much play it will see in Modern in the next season. The (un)bannings have provided an opportunity for Restoration Angel. I could see a UWB or WB deck with Bitterblossom and this card. I wouldn’t move on it now. I want to see proof of this card seeing play. Regardless, five bucks is the absolute floor for this card. I don’t see it reasonably going down AT ALL. This is low-risk, possibly high reward. It sees play in Commander and Cube, so there’s some potential for long term growth. Keep your eye on this.

Mistbind Clique

Mistbind Clique

I think the spike on this card is unwarranted. Many others feel the same way. There’s going to be a major sell off for the next couple of days. Look at the hilariously high buylist prices.

Mistbind Clique

A selloff is in order. Speculators are the only people who were actually buying into this hype. Over the next two weeks coming up to the pro tour, they will start selling off after getting in on the ground floor. I’d put this at a hard WATCH. Pay attention to what pros are saying about this card. If you think that there’s enough hype around it coming into the Pro Tour, it’s reasonable to move in on this one. Sell into the pro tour hype.

This is exactly what I was talking about with head and shoulders. We’ve had the left shoulder. The selloff is about to happen. Get in when prices decrease dramatically and you could see the head be even larger than the run-up on this card initially.

Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker

Kiki-Jiki

This one has been on a steady decline for the past several weeks. I don’t think there’s a reason for this card to decline while Splinter Twin rises (more on that one in a moment). Kiki-Jiki is good in the Kiki-Pod lists a couple of months ago. While that deck fell a bit out of favor, I could see a deck with better creatures being better against a field with more Zoo and Fae decks (um. Restoration Angel blocks 3 power flyers for days). Also, Splinter Twin is fast and has the disruption to Remand annoying faeries.

Speaking of remand…

Remand

Remand

I don’t see this not going up. If there’s a Faeries deck, it might play this one. Moreover, Splinter Twin and the TWoo and UR delver lists are playing this amazing card. Deathrite Shaman, a notoriously useful card against Snapcaster Mage, is gone now. Also, Deathrite comes out T1 and is immensely frustrating. I don’t think there will be major gains here, but it’s possible you could get a 30% gain from this card.

Deathrite Shaman

Deathrite Shaman

Out of any banned card in Modern, I think this has been the most unwarranted sell-off. This is a Legacy and (to a lesser extent) Standard playable. Watch the price. I’m a buyer under four dollars. Buy foils too. Foils are good as this is a Cube and Commander card. Watch the price for foils. If they tank, you’ll be in for some major profits.

My final pick is:

Knight of the Reliquary

This, surprisingly, hasn’t seen a run up. I don’t know why. It plays very well with Wild Nacatl in a Zoo deck as a huge beater with a very useful effect in that deck to get a, say, Gavony Township. It’s also widely playable across the format. With Noble Hierarch being the defacto mana dork now, a Bant goodstuff deck may come to the forefront for example. Either way, I don’t see this card going lower than it is now. It’s definitely a pickup.

Before I go, I’d just like to introduce myself. I’m Camden Clark, and I’ve been playing Magic since Dark Ascension. I’m really interested in the financial aspect of MTG, and want to use statistical analysis to help evaluate cards. Follow me on twitter at http://twitter.com/flshbackfinance I’d love to have a chat! In full disclosure, I have not purchased any of the cards I have endorsed above, I’m just trying to help you know what to look for in cards and how to use the powerful statistical tool that is mtgprice.com!
See you soon.

The Jolly Green Giant

By; Travis Allen

A week or two ago I posted on Twitter about a Genesis Wave deck I’ve been playing in Modern and about how much I’ve enjoyed it. I am confident in saying that this is the most fun I’ve had playing Modern since the format’s inception. I got a lot of requests for the list and discussion, so this week I thought we could take a break from the B&R fervor and do something a little different. This article will be much lighter on the finance info than it normally is. Instead, we’ll be looking at the “NyxWave” deck. Hopefully this is far enough off the beaten Modern path to be interesting to most. Next week we’ll return to regularly scheduled programming.

Let’s start with my latest list:

Spells
4 Garruk Wildspeaker
4 Genesis Wave
1 Harmonize
3 Overgrowth
2 Primal Command
1 Sylvan Scrying
4 Utopia Sprawl

Creatures
1 Acidic Slime
4 Arbor Elf
4 Burning-Tree Emissary
1 Craterhoof Behemoth
4 Eternal Witness
1 Kitchen Finks
2 Primeval Titan
3 Voyaging Satyr

Lands
8 Forest
5 Green Fetches
1 Horizon Canopy
1 Kessig Wolf Run
4 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
1 Stomping Ground
1 Temple Garden

Sideboard
1 Boseiju, Who Shelters All
1 Firespout
1 Harmonize
2 Kitchen Finks
1 Nature’s Claim
2 Rest in Peace
3 Spellskite
2 Stony Silence
1 Vexing Shusher
1 Wurmcoil Engine

If you’ve been following this deck online at all, you’ll see it’s sort of a hybrid between early Genesis Wave builds that ran the full set of BTEs and Elvish Visionarys and Woo’s recent list that focused more on establishing Primal Command locks. I’ve chosen a middle ground that I feel encompasses the best components of both lists.

Our mana ramp comes from the Utopia Sprawls, Overgrowths, Arbor Elves and Voyaging Satyrs. I think I’ve reached a point where my favorite three cards in an opening hand in Modern are Forest, Arbor Elf, and Utopia Sprawl. Why is that so powerful?

T1: Land, Arbor Elf
T2: Land, Utopia Sprawl on untapped land. Tap Sprawl land for two, untap with Arbor, tap for two more, for a total of four mana on T2.

That means turn two Garruk Wildspeakers (which untaps both lands for another three mana) or Harmonize. You’re in great shape after doing that, and even if you don’t manage to win, at least you had a ton of fun losing. Utopia Sprawl

Four Arbor Elves and four Utopia Sprawl are untouchable. They form the backbone of the deck’s mana acceleration, and are part of why Garruk is so good in this list. The Overgrowths and Voyaging Satyrs are also very powerful, but their numbers are more flexible. I feel that four and four is probably too many, but I haven’t figured out what the correct number is yet. I liked three and three, but I could see possibly dropping a Satyr.

Garruk Wildspeaker is amazing, and casting him reminds you of why he was the best Planeswalker in Lorwyn. Untapping two naked lands is reasonable, but when one of those lands has three enchantments on it and the other land is Nykthos, his +1 is just silly. Garruk is almost always behind the silly mana counts that reach into the mid and high teens. Then when you don’t have a use for more mana this turn, his beast token is way overpowered for the cost. It’s great at threatening opponents with lots of removal and plays solid defense on the turns where you don’t have any of your mana sinks. What’s more, a single +1 from his starting loyalty puts you in Overrun territory. It’s not uncommon to cast him, tick him up once, then just Overrun them to death the next turn. It’s not as flashy a win, but it’s efficient. Don’t ever cut Garruk. He’s one of the best cards in the deck, and he pays you in spades for all those auras.

Sylvan Scrying is an excellent 5th Nykthos. I’ve been pretty pleased with the card, having run as many as three copies in the past, but space is limited. I’m still not sure where the correct number is, but I know it’s between zero and three. Even if you already have Nykthos in play, it’s far from a blank. For two it fetches a second shrine to really make your mana explode. When you’re not in need of more shrines, go get a Kessig Wolf Run and just trample them to death with an Eternal Witness. Or perhaps you’ve got all the mana in the world but need to do something big this turn and KWR isn’t going to cut it? Find your Horizon Canopy and draw another card. That line sounds expensive, but with a few auras, an elf or two, and a Garruk, it really isn’t. It’s completely conceivable to generate sixteen mana, fetch Canopy, use it to draw a Primal Command, Command a land to the top of their deck and grab another Witness, Witness back the Primal Command, and then cast it again.

Speaking of which, Primal Command is half engine, half win condition. You’re never upset to cast it, although it is admittedly never stupendous. All the options are solid, and I’ve used each and every one of them several times. Having outs to random enchantments and artifacts are great, as is the life if you only need another turn to go off. Most of the time you’re flipping lands and fetching Witness to do it again next turn, as it locks their draw step while allowing you to keep advancing your board. Command provides a useful way to slow your opponent’s development in the mid-game while continuing to push towards a critical mass board state, and can also function as a semi-win late in the game when you can cast and recur it more than once in a turn, blanking your opponent’s draw step for a turn or two while you add more threats and either draw into a Wave or just fetch a Prime Titan.

Harmonize

Harmonize is awesome every single time, and my next revision to the list will probably involve playing more copies. If this deck has taught me anything, it’s that I severely wish this card was legal in Standard. When you can cast it on turn two and Witness it back the next turn, you know you’ve got something special. The biggest tension is between this and Primal Command. Primal Command *does* more, but it’s occasionally lower impact than you’d like, and typically your true win is Wave, which Harmonize finds and Command doesn’t. On the other hand, Harmonize can draw you two lands and an elf while Command can start a chain that leads to you taking complete control. I’m not sure yet what the proper split is here, and I’d love input from others who have experience.

Genesis Wave is the true engine of the deck, and is a sight to behold when it works. You typically want to hit it for at least eight so that your Craterhoof comes into play. Often the first wave won’t flip him, but instead will give you some combination of lands/Garruks/Witnesses that will allow you to cast a second Wave immediately, typically for much larger. Remember that when you flip a second Nykthos or Garruk, you can sac the old ones so you get fresh activations out of the new copies.

Beyond Arbor Elf and Voyaging Satyr, BTE acts as a mana source too, although less obviously so. She adds double green for devotion which really helps power up your Nykthos fast, and is part of all your most broken draws. I’ve had seven card hands that I unloaded with on T2 because they included a few BTE and Nykthos. Even the simple hands allow you to go BTE into Satyr, which typically sets up a big T3 unless your opponent does something quickly.

The downside is that she’s obviously not a great topdeck. Sometimes you just need the devotion so you’re happy to see her, but more often than not it’s a pretty dead draw. Other options here include Elvish Visionary, Strangleroot Geist, Fertile Ground, Wall of Roots, more Sylvan Scrying, or something else entirely. All of those reduce your bananahands, but have their own upsides. I recommend goldfishing a few hands to see what BTE can do before you condemn them though.

Eternal Witness allows for some of the best value plays in the deck. There are games where you play her on T2 to get back a fetchland just so that you’re putting mana symbols on the table and keeping the spice flowing. Other games she enables your Command chains. When you Wave for six or seven, a single Witness in the pile returns a Wave to your hand so that you can do the time warp again. When you’re behind on board you can Witness returning Garruk, then play him to make a beast, going from no board presence to threatening. Witnessing Harmonize feels spectacular. There’s just no shortage of jobs for a 2/1 Regrowth.

Acidic Slime is a one-of down from the four Woo plays. The card is strong, for sure, but it’s easy to end up in games where it’s just too low impact. I like having the single copy to be able to command for it where it’s necessary, but in general I’d rather draw cards that more directly advance my Wave plan.

Craterhoof Behemoth

Prime Times are Prime Times, I feel there isn’t a lot to say here. As vulnerable as he is against some decks, the KWR he fetches is rarely useless, and plenty of times they simply don’t have an answer. If you untap with Prime Time, you’re probably swinging for twenty or more damage on him alone. The Craterhoof is your “I win” off of Waves, and very rarely disappoints. Even if you only have two untapped creatures you can attack with when he comes into play, typically your wave(s) dumped a lot more bodies into play that turn and you can still swing for lethal. Hardcasting him isn’t out of the question either. I’ve beaten RG aggro decks that were at eighteen life by not blocking an attack for twelve, untapping, hardcasting Craterhoof and just killing them out of nowhere with a few Elves and a Witness. Your opponent is usually so concentrated on worrying about your combo that they overlook your ability to just Hoof them to death on the spot.

The manabase isn’t anything noteworthy, and I’m quite happy with it at the moment. I tried it with only three Nykthos, but I’m pretty sure that’s completely wrong. Drawing a second copy isn’t bad in this deck, because you’re often going to completely fine trading a land drop for a boost in mana on a critical turn. Activate the first Nykthos, play the second, then activate that one for megabonusjackpotmana.

If the sideboard changes significantly it may require mild tweaking, but for now it functions just as it should. It’s possible you could go up to twenty-two lands, but that should only happen if you’re adding more velocity to the main.

Your sideboard with this deck is mostly trying to proactively answer a few things: Robots, Graveyards, Deceiver Exarchs, and counterspells. Mine is geared for my local meta, so feel free to tweak yours as necessary.

Playing this deck is a blast. Your goal is typically to generate giant piles of mana and spend them on everything possible as fast as you can. Make sure you’re counting your potential mana on each line of play. Oftentimes you’ll be faced with situations where one line nets you five, another six, and a tricky-to-see third line will find you seven or eight. Remember to do things like cast Arbor Elf or Utopia Sprawl before activating Nykthos, as they’re a free roll, and they’ll even add mana if you can use Nykthos twice. Be wary of Tectonic Edges. Tec Edge can only destroy nonbasics and only if you have four or more lands. This means your auras should be on basic forests, and feel free to hold your fourth land in hand until you absolutely need it. Holding the Nykthos as your fourth land until you draw the Wave when playing against Tec Edge is almost always the right play.

One thing I’ve seen asked is “why not Tooth and Nail?” It’s a pretty similar spell. Pay nine mana, kill them on the spot. Genesis Wave involves all the triggers, can whiff, etc etc. I’ve been pondering this a good bit, and I believe Wave is (narrowly) the better option.

Flame-Kin Zealot

My issue with T&N is that it requires you to play dead cards, and occasionally will lose even if you resolve it. There are two basic routes you can take; Emrakul + Flame-Kin Zealot or Triskelion + Mikaeus. Trike and Mike looks like the best option on the surface, until you realize it gets hosed by graveyard hate or Path, which is definitely not what you want in an all-in win condition. That leaves us with Emrakul + Flame-kin. I’d guess that 97% of the time you put those two into play you’re going to win, but there are still those times you won’t. Your twin opponent may just Exarch the Emrakul before attacks, then untap and kill you. There will also be games that you draw the Flame-kin (or whatever haste enabler you opt for) and wish it was anything you could actually cast. Emrakul isn’t technically a dead draw, as fifteen is certainly viable, but I wouldn’t want to lean on that. Fifteen for Emrakul is a far cry from eight for Craterhoof. There are of course the games you’ll be able to pay seven for just the back half of T&N and slam Emrakul + whatever into play and dare your opponent to answer it in a single turn. I’m not sure how often those come up, or how often they win, but it can and will happen.

The knock against Wave is that it seems more expensive, and won’t always win you the game. I agree that paying nine for T&N seems more of a lock than with Wave, but I don’t think I’ve ever actually lost a game I Waved where X=6. If in those six cards you don’t find the tools necessary to recur and cast the Wave again that turn, you probably at least put some very relevant permanents into play. With only twenty-one lands, it’s not often that you’re going to flip six dead cards. You can also wave for less than six and often get the help you need. Four will put nearly all your permanents into play, and even three will get you most of your creatures, including any Witnesses to get back the Wave again for next turn. Waving for less than eight isn’t exactly preferable, but it’s still often going to be enough. You also aren’t required to keep any dead cards in your deck. Every card in your list is completely castable without Wave. Finally, Wave attacks on a multitude of vectors. You’re filling the board with threats, massive amounts of mana, enabling a Command chain, and presenting a hasty lethal threat that turn. Even if they can deal with the Craterhoof, they still have to worry about the fifteen creatures in play, the Garruk, the KWR, and the thirty+ mana you now have to loop Command three times.

Ultimately I’d say the difference between T&N and Wave is only going to matter on the margins. I am pretty sure Wave is slightly stronger, and I know for sure it’s more fun. Both get hit by different hate cards out of boards, so they’re a wash there. With a deck like this, you can really just pick whichever one is more fun to you.

I’ve spent 2500 words telling you how awesome this deck is. Now I’m going to tell you what’s a bummer. I’m pretty sure one of the worst cards in the format for this deck is Cryptic Command. It bounces aura’d lands, it counters everything you do without letting you pay your way out of it (unlike Mana Leak), and it fogs your Craterhoof turn. You also don’t want to see piles of Lightning Bolts, Helixes and Paths, since disrupting your small dudes early will typically disrupt you long enough for your opponent to beat their way in with Tarmogoyfs and Wild Nacatls. Deathrite Shaman and Liliana were actually not at their best against you, so you weren’t terribly upset to play against them. Now, instead of those, you are more likely to face some very bad matchups. I’ll be watching the format closely to see if I can tweak the deck to handle the impending changes, but a sharp rise in Cryptic decks could put this on the backburner. In the meantime, I encourage you to give this a whirl at your local Modern tournament. You’re definitely going to draw a crowd when you say “add seventeen mana to my mana pool, cast Genesis Wave for fourteen” out loud.

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