Tag Archives: Finding Value

Tokyo Magic

By Guo Heng Chin

As I mentioned in last week’s article, I was in Tokyo for a week. Seeing that the holiday season is just around the corner, let me regale you with some holiday tales of my little pilgrimage to the Magic stores in Tokyo and the wonders I saw and experienced throughout my journey. Readers interested in actionable finance-related stuff can skip straight to the Trends segment at the bottom of this article for the card I am examining this week with my financial monocles.

While my trip was not Magic-related (that one comes next May for Grand Prix Chiba featuring Modern Masters Two, I mean 2015), I tried to squeeze in as much time as my girlfriend would allow to drop by Tokyo’s Magic stores. In a way, Japan is the hallowed land of Magic: the Gathering in Asia. It is the Asian country with the largest number of Grand Prix allocation each year. For comparison, there will be five Grand Prix in Japan in 2015 while China and Southeast Asia only got three each. Japanese players are among some of the most accomplished Asian players in the pro circuit, a testament to the thriving Magic scene in Japan. However the part about Japanese Magic stores that excited me the most was the fact that they are home to Japanese foils and various other peculiarities unique to Japan.

The Rarest of Them All

The first place I went to search for magic stores was Akihabara, the epicenter of geekery in Tokyo. Akihabara is home to not just one, nor two, but a cluster of Magic stores, with at least four of them being major purveyor of singles. The first store I dropped by was Big Magic located on the top floor of Radio Kaikan, a shopping mall dedicated to anime and manga, figurines, collectibles and TCGs . As Big Magic’s name implied, the store showcased a big inventory of big money singles.

The number of unaffordable cards in the display is too damn high!
The number of unaffordable cards in the display is too damn high!

It felt surreal to be in the vicinity of so many singles worth more than my monthly salary just sitting behind the glass display, like museum exhibits. I have played in a plethora of Magic stores in Malaysia and England, but I have never encountered such brazen display of Powers and high end cards within a two meter radius. I grind competitive Magic and write about Magic finance, but I am also a collector at heart. I have a fascination with the rare and unique, a trait I imagine I share with most collectors, be they collectors of cardboards, stamps, or bottle caps. And nothing excites a collector like witnessing with his or her own eyes an object so rare it possessed a near-mythical status:

The border that could have been.
The border that could have been.

The Adarkar Wastes above was one of the test print cards done in a different frame. Though the card has an Unglued symbol, it was part of the test print for 8th Edition that leaked out. There is only one copy of the card above as only four of each card were printed, with two of them featuring different styles of foiling.  The copy above should be the dark hue-with-foiling-all-over-the-card version.

You saw it right. It has a seven-digit price tag. The Adakar Wastes above only had six digits.
You saw it right. The test print City of Traitors commands a seven-digit price tag. The test print Adarkar Wastes above only had six digits.
Artifacts did not look too good in that version of foiling.
I don’t remember foil artifacts looking like this.

Wow. Just wow. I recall reading an old piece about high end foils by no other than the godfather of Magic finance, Jonathan Medina. The article concluded with a segment aptly titled ‘Foils You’ll Never See’  where Medina wrote about certain foils where ” chances are that you won’t run into these, but you should be aware that cards like this exist”. They are so rare that most of the time you can only see them at Magic Librarities, a website dedicated to archiving all the rarities that exist throughout the two decades of Magic’s existence, and one of my favorite procrastination site (I have some boring task at hand, oh wait lets have a look at all these rarities). There was a sense of awe in seeing those cards in real life, akin to witnessing in person an old painting in which you have only saw low resolution pictures of in a textbook or Wikipedia.

I also had the chance to see one of these beauties physically. I have always wondered how would a shiny bronze symbol would look like on a card:

Illustrated by the Guru of Magic: the Gathering art herself.
Illustrated by the Guru of Magic: the Gathering art herself.

Cream of high-end rarities aside, the other cool thing about Big Magic in Akihabara is their order-taking system where you can browse and select the singles you want on a tablet and pick them up on their counter. I read that Hareruya, Tomoharu Saito’s megastore also employs a similar system using desktops.

Too bad it does not have Google Translate installed.
Physically browsing through cards is so old school.

Speaking of machines, I stumbled upon one of these in front of another Magic store a few floors below Big Magic:

I do not know what it says on the vending machine, but it sure as hell was not "200 yen for a Wooded Foothills and Bloodstained Mire".
I do not know what it says on the vending machine, but it sure as hell was not “200 yen for a Wooded Foothills and Bloodstained Mire”.

The Taste of Brainstorm

I visited nearly all the stores in the two clusters of Magic stores in Tokyo, Akihabara and Ikebukuro. There are plenty of articles and forum posts written about how the stores are like, so rather than repeat what others wrote (go read them, they deserve the hits), I am going to share the things that fascinated me during my visit to those stores. Witnessing rarities in person was one of them, and the other was finding out how Brainstorm tastes.

I made the trip to Shibuya, partially to accompany my girlfriend for her shopping, and partially to check out Mint, the magic store sponsoring Yuuya Watanabe (I am sure most of you who watched the World Championship semifinals caught a glimpse of Mint’s logo on Yuuya’s sweater). Opened in February 2012, Mint is a relatively new store compared with the incumbents in Akihabara and Ikebukoro but it boasts a unique edge: it is both a bar and a card store.

Mint Shibuya, the only bar in Tokyo that is Magical.
Mint Shibuya, the only bar in Tokyo that is Magical.

Mint Shibuya definitely leveraged the fact that they are a both a bar and a Magic store by concocting their own cocktails inspired by and named after iconic Magic cards with like Brainstorm and Voice of Resurgence. I relished the opportunity to finally experience a Brainstorm with my taste buds. I am no expert on cocktails, but the Brainstorm cocktail was sweet and zesty, just like casting the spell itself (or maybe I am just biased, being a lifelong blue mage).

Wait a minute. Aren’t you asking for trouble putting a drink right beside your deck?

Mint Shibuya came up with a great answer: two-tiered tables with a transparent glass upper tier to put your drink and a spacious bottom tier for you to sling cards.

If I can't play Brainstorm in Modern UR Delver, I'll sip on Brainstorm while I goldfish it.
If I can’t play Brainstorm in Modern UR Delver, I’ll sip on Brainstorm while I goldfish it.

There were no one playing in the shop as I visited it on an weekday afternoon, but I could not resist the urge to test out such an ingenious solution. I can now claim from experience that it was pretty comfortable to use!

Tokyo Hauls

Being the guy who writes about undervalued cards, I can not help but search for undervalued Magic in Tokyo. The first haul from my trip was Japanese Khans of Tarkir booster boxes.

A single Japanese Conspiracy booster box because I like my one in a few thousand chance of opening a foil Japanese Dack Fayden.
A single Japanese Conspiracy booster box because I like my one in a few thousand chance of opening a foil Japanese Dack Fayden.

It comes without saying that Japanese booster boxes are going to be cheaper in Japan. I bought my three Khans of Tarkir boxes from different shops, and they all averaged out at ¥10, 500, about $87 each. Throughout December 2014, Japanese Khans of Tarkir booster boxes sold on eBay for $130 – $160, with a single outlier of $119 and some fetching up to $175. Japanese Conspiracy boxes sold for around $140 each during the same time frame.

The Japanese stores are well aware that their eternal staple foils command an insane multiplier compared to English foils and price them accordingly. The foil Japanese Khans of Tarkir fetchlands were on par with eBay completed sales prices. But nowhere else could you find Japanese booster boxes for the price it was sold at inside Japan. I opted to buy booster boxes rather than Japanese foils as I figured that would give me the best value with my limited funds.

Intriguingly, shops in Tokyo sell English Khans of Tarkir booster boxes at a higher price than Japanese boosters. English Khans of Tarkir were going for ¥13, 000, around $1, 500 more expensive than the Japanese ones. The shopkeepers I spoke to, with the assistance of Google’s Translate app, cited the fact that in Japan, English boxes come in a significantly lower supply than Japanese boxes. No surprise there. While they agree that Japanese cards reins in a higher price due to the cards’ cool typeface, their opinions differ on how much Japanese players value English cards. One claimed that Japanese players generally prefer Japanese cards, a statement I can agree with. The other mentioned how some Japanese players seek out English cards to play in tournaments abroad, something I find peculiar as it is technically legal to play Japanese cards anywhere English cards could be played.

Nevertheless, it remains the fact that English booster boxes were sold at a higher price than Japanese booster boxes in the stores I visited. It makes little sense economically to sell a product at a higher price when it has low demand, even though the product’s supply is lower. I guess I will find out more about  the value Japanese players place on English cards when I have the chance to do some trading at Grand Prix Chiba come May next year.

Unfortunately, player-to-player trading is not allowed in most Tokyo stores. While I sympathise with their reason for implementing the rule,  it nevertheless disappointed me  as I lugged along my trade binder for the trip with high hopes of trading for Japanese foils. I guess I should have dug deeper while researching my trip.

The other Japanese MTG object you could get much cheaper in Japan than anywhere else are these:

Not APAC lands, but rather two packed lands.
Not APAC lands, but rather two packed lands.

APAC (Asia-Pacific) lands is a series of fifteen basic lands given out to Asia-Pacific players as promotional cards back in 1998. The APAC lands are unique in a sense that their art each refer to a specific real world setting in Asia-Pacific. They came in three sets distinguished by their color-coded packaging – clear, red and blue and each pack contained different arts for each basic land type. APAC lands are highly sought after for their gorgeous and unconventional art (land art do not usually refer to real world locations) and their rarity.

Here's a hope to APAC lands becoming the next Guru lands. It probably won't happen.
Here’s a hope to APAC lands becoming the next Guru lands. It probably won’t happen.

The cheapest APAC lands go for $6 – $7 apiece while the most expensive ones go up to $25. Unopened packs go for anywhere between $25 – $60 on eBay and online retailers sell them for least $45 for the clear pack and up to $70 for the red pack, and that is if they stock them. My only regret was not getting more unopened APAC lands during my trip.

I hope my tale amused you a little, and if you ever go to Japan, you know what to spend your money on. APAC lands and lots of ramen.

Trends

Financially afflicted, Pharika turned to peddling snake tokens to support herself.
Financially afflicted, Pharika turned to peddling snake tokens to support herself.

A good indicator of an undervalued card about to spike is a spike on Magic Online. As of writing, Pharika, God of Affliction is demanding 12 tix online, while paper copies are only $4.32. Pharika has been seeing play as a two-of in the mainboard of Sultai Reanimator, Abzan Reanimator, GB Constellation and the occasional Abzan Midrange. Pharika is the ultimate value engine, churning out a stream of deathtouch blockers from your fallen or milled creatures, with the potential to become a 5/5 body. As her snakes are enchantment creatures, Pharika combos with Doomwake Giant to give you an asymmetrical Drown in Sorrow each turn.

Pharika was one of the cards I thought would be one of the breakout card in Journey into Nyx but it has never even went as high as $10. Pharika is a mythic rare from a little-opened spring set, is competitively costed in a popular competitive color combination and is a card that generates value turn-by-turn and is hard to get rid of. I would consider her on par with Keranos, God of Storms who was nearly $20 at his height and is now $13. I do not expect Pharika to emulate Keranos pricewise as Keranos sees play as a one-of in Modern and Legacy decks as a way to grind out long games, but Pharika at under $5 seemed to be way undervalued.


 

Foreign Language (Cards) for Dummies

By Guo Heng Chin

First and foremost, I have to apologise to you readers and my editors for the late publication of this article. I am currently in Tokyo with intermittent internet access. With that out of the way, let’s dive into a topic that is close to my heart: foreign language foils.

Foreign language cards and foils never used to catch my interest. I delegated them to the realms of hardcore Commander, Legacy and Modern players with wallets thicker than their decks.

Then on one fine day, my girlfriend brought back two boxes of Korean Theros from her trip to South Korea, and I opened this in one of the boxes:

It's hammer time!
It’s hammer time!

Oh my, it looked gorgeous. I grew up speaking English, Malay and Cantonese but I only wrote in English and Malay, which also used Roman alphabets. The Korean script read to me like ancient runes, fittingly on a card that summons a god, and it looked absolutely fascinating in foil. After going through two boxes of Korean Theros, I started to find myself with a thirst for foils in scripts intelligible to myself.

The Tiers of Foreign Cards

One of the first thing every foreign language cardphile learns is the rarity tier of languages and their corresponding price multipliers. This would be exceedingly familiar to many of you, and countless articles have been written about the topic, so I am going to quickly skimp through it for the new entrants and the uninitiated.

English cards are the baseline, being the default language of Magic cards. The European languages, French, Italian and Spanish have a similar or lower valuation in relative to their English counterparts. From my own experience, when I was living in London Spanish, Italian and French cards were valued slightly lower than their English counterparts, both on player-to-player trading and on magiccardmarket.eu, and for both non-foils and foils including eternal staples like Thoughtseize. German is the only exception; some cards have awesome, punny and sometimes politically incorrect names in German:

Athreos, God of Passage (German)Myr Superion

However, back in Malaysia, most European language cards command a higher price than English cards. A rule of thumb for valuing non ‘tier one’ foreign language cards and foils is that they are only worth the amount your trade partner is willing to pay for them.

Non-Roman alphabet languages generally demand a higher price for their cool factor: 

Foil Japanese Brainstorm from eBay user kidicarus.
Foil Japanese Brainstorm from eBay user kidicarus.

The cheapest of the tier one languages is Japanese, considered to be the third most expensive but most accessible of foreign language cards due to the fact that most LGSes worldwide have Japanese booster allocations.  Big Japanese stores like Saito Card Shop also have an English-friendly online presence with a large Japanese non-foil and foil inventory making it easier for anyone around the world to acquire Japanese singles.

The top two rarest languages are Korean and Russian. While most local game stores have a small allocation of Korean and Russian boxes, most stores do not stock them unless requested, or the stocks fly right off the shelves if there are demand for them due to the small allocation. Buying Korean and Russian singles online are  much harder. I tried looking for an online venue to purchase Korean singles to little avail. Even the large Korean Magic: the Gathering stores recommended to me by a Korean friend do not have English websites and Google Translate was horrible at it, especially when I tried to use the search function. I have not done as much research for Russian singles sites but a quick search did not yield any website in English.

The only way to acquire Korean or Russian boxes en masse would be to be in South Korea or Russia yourself, or hope that your LGS stocks them or is willing to order them for you using whatever limited allocation Wizards gave them.

Simplified Chinese cards are cheaper than their English counterparts due to Simplified Chinese cards being perceived to be in high supply, and while Traditional Chinese cards are scarcer, the difficulty in differentiating Simplified and Traditional Chinese for the untrained eye made it that Traditional Chinese cards do not command a significant bump in price.

Non-foil foreign language Japanese, Korean and Russian cards are only slightly more expensive than their non-foil English counterparts, even for eternal staples. As of writing, Korean Thoughtseizes are going for just about $10 more than an English one. The Japanese store I visited were selling Japanese Polluted Delta for 1950 – 2000 yen, which is just $4 – $5 more than an English one.

The foreign language price multiplier gets insane when you look at foil eternal staples, even those currently being opened. The Japanese stores I visited were selling foil Japanese Polluted Delta for 20, 000 yen, which translates into roughly $170. Completed listings on eBay for Korean foil Polluted Delta showed winning bids at around $320. The last sold Russian Polluted Delta on eBay went for slightly higher than $1000.

Pricing Foreign Foils

Foreign non-foils are pretty easy to price, the tier one languages are usually a few dollars more than English versions. Pricing foreign foils is a more arduous task.

The first thing I did after cracking foil Korean Purphoros was to check if I have struck gold.  While I easily looked up the prices for my English foils on MTGPrice.com, attempting to pin a value on foreign cards required more digging, and the fact that Korean was the second rarest language made it felt like trudging through a wild west of card price. When I first looked up on completed sales of foil Korean Purphoros, God of the Forge on eBay, I was estatic to see one sold for $120, which was six times the price of a foil English Purphoros, God of the Forge at that time (January 2014). A few months later, a Korean-based seller was relisting a foil Korean Purphoros for $80 multiple times and no one bought it.

Japanese cards are easier to price thanks to Saito’s Card Shop.  Without any English-friendly online Korean or Russian stores to check for prices (and assuming that like me, you do not speak Korean or Russian), your best bet would be either eBay or the High End Magic Stuff for Sale Facebook Group. While eBay shows you the price at which a card was sold at, it is not often that you can find a card you are looking for and eBay archives old listings, making it more difficult to research. More often than not, you would find no recent sold listings for foils that are not in high demand. The High End Magic Stuff for Sale have a larger listing for you to search through, the prices listed there may not be the price at which the card was bought, and many posters are open to best offers.

Keep in mind that foreign foils, especially the high end ones are only worth as much as the party on the other end of the transaction is willing to pay. The price for foil Korean Purphoros, God of the Forge is a good example. The listing that sold when I first looked it up early this year so happened to meet a buyer willing to fog up $120 for it (Purphoros is popular in Commander I hear), but later listings struggled to find even someone willing to pay $80 for it. As for my own foil Korean Purphoros, I probably will not part with it even for a foil Korean Polluted Delta. The sentimental value attached to it is worth much more to me than a foil Korean Polluted Delta.

I hope you have gleaned some useful information on foreign cards and foils pricing tiers and  how to find out how much they are worth. Join me next week as a recount my Magic adventures in Tokyo.

Edit: The price for foil Japanese Polluted Delta was corrected from 200, 000 yen to 20, 000 yen.  The author would like to thank reader Ben Q who pointed out the extra zero typo.


 

Legacy Hero #6

Legacy Hero #6.5

 

This week I’m going to try and answer some questions that have been filling up my inbox. I didn’t think I would be going to writing a mail bag article this soon. I’m going to take that a compliment though. It means that I’ve been doing something right. To keep the powers that be happy I will make sure to have some magic finance content and next weeks article will definitely be more about the numbers. I have some exciting stuff on the speculation front as well as some promising results from a local player that picked up his older brothers cards when he moved out.

Let’s start things off with by addressing the most popular email I’ve been getting. To paraphrase, it goes something like this. “I play in an area with a decent sized magic group. We average 30 players at our FNM events but those are only standard. None of the players at my store play anything older than Modern and even then it is tough to get those events to fire. I really want to play legacy but I can’t get anyone else to even think about it. Do you have any suggestions on how to help popularize legacy?”

At first glance, I thought that this would be an easy question to answer. When I put the pen to the paper, I was wrong. I realized that this would take much more than a quick email response. There are a lot of factors in play here. As always, the first hurdle of legacy is the cost of entry. The cards in the legacy decks are just more expensive. With that expense comes a stigma that you have to be rich to play the game.

Overcoming the expense of getting into legacy is what the base of my entire series is about. I can’t write a step by step guide personalized to everyone thinking about joining the legacy crowd. There are far too many variables.  What I hope to do is give everyone who reads my articles enough information to try the same things I’m trying. By following along I hope that everyone will eventually succeed in getting that deck finished and sleeved up. The part I didn’t really think about is what happens when you finally have your deck sleeved up and you’re ready to play?

It my area here in Michigan, I have at least 6 stores within an hour drive that have a weekly legacy tournament fire with an average of 10-12 people. 4 of those stores have regular IQ events or standalone events that feature a large enough payout to bring out the majority of the legacy ringers out of the woodworks making these events worth driving double that distance or at least that’s what I hear when I go. I’m pretty sure you have seen a few of these people play on camera at the SCG legacy opens. Tom is pretty hard to miss at over 7 feet tall.
Having a legacy community thrive takes a few things. First and foremost, you have to have the players willing to spend  the money at their local store. That money can be for entry fees or the occasional larger purchase from the case.  The store has to do their part as well. The store has to invest in those higher dollar cards for their legacy players and they need to invest in events that are worth the time to play in. How many players are they going to get if they charge $10 and give away packs? Personally, I would rather have one larger event an month with better prize support and more players than a weekly event that is lucky to break 8 players.

I had to submit this article on early Thursday morning because I wanted to get some feedback from a friend of mine. His store is a couple of years old. They average 20-30 people for FNM. They haven’t been able to get a legacy community going over there.  I thought his feedback would offer some insight on the situation.

Here are the important highlights of our conversation:

Me: How many people do you get asking about legacy at the store? Have you guys tried having legacy events at all?

Kyle: 0 yes and me and Jarod were the only ones interested in them

Me: I’m writing a mail bag article and one of the most emailed questions seems to be “How do I get my lgs to support legacy?” So I’m trying to get a store’s feedback on this.

Kyle: Yeah the only two people interested in legacy around the shop are me and Jarod.

Me: So if you guys posted a Duel for Duals, you wouldn’t get any people to show up?

Kyle: We might get a few people like the ones that don’t come to our store for FNM or anything like that. Those kinds of tournaments(Duel for Duals) bring in a lot of people.

Me: But if you had a tourney like that, do you think it would increase the interest from the locals?

Kyle: Probably not our regulars. They all are into standard pretty much exclusively. Except recently a lot of them have been building puper decks since they are so cheap

Me: What about modern? You guys getting any more action on modern at all? And do you think the new WotC rules about being able to sanction anything will help Legacy at all?

Kyle: Modern fires for FNM but not every week. There are maybe 6 people who exclusively only play Modern and EDH on the side. As for Legacy FNM probably not. The cost to get into Legacy is slightly more than Modern and prices for entry into other formats is what scares people. The reason Standard is so popular is because the initial cost to get into it is relatively cheap compared to Legacy and Modern

Me: Agreed. Just trying to get feedback here.

Kyle: You said this was for your article or something so I was giving you descriptive answers. lol

Me: Thanks!

Kyle: What confuses me is that even after I explain to people the price of the cards I have in my(legacy) deck and what I was able to pick them up for they still refuse to get into Legacy.

Me: Why do you think that is? Are they just blinded by the perceived prices?

Kyle: Force of Will is around 90-ish (90.55 on mtgprice.com) and I picked mine up when they were like 50 or 60. I’ve only made value on them along with a few other cards in the deck like Wasteland. (Note: Kyle is an AVID Merfolk player. No matter how hard I try, he always sticks to fish.)

Me: Your Vendilion clique promo is a good example (He bought it at $60 a couple years back. I didn’t think the price was going to hold. I was wrong.)

Kyle: Yeah basically. People see the price for cards and go holy shit I can’t afford that. Then I destroy their logic when I explain that Standard is actually the most expensive format. Especially since they(WotC) are making standard rotate sooner in the near future

Me: That is one of the major themes I’ve been trying to get across in my article series.

Kyle: At most for Legacy you spend like $20 here or there to update the deck. Not $400 on an entirely new deck every X amount of months

Me:What do your players do at rotation? Do they dump all their rotating stuff on you guys for store credit or what?

Kyle: They trade in things that we don’t have an overload on and then buy a box or two of the newest set out.

Me: And you guys are giving half of scg(selling price) in trade, right?

Kyle: We go off of magiccards.info mid price which I believe is TCG mid price

Me: It is. So they are getting half of tcgmid in store credit on stuff that you guys need. Otherwise, they’re stuck with it?

Kyle: For the most part yeah. I mean there are a few things here and there that see their way into Legacy or Modern that we might give a little more on.

Me:I’m sure they can trade some of the stuff away to other players but I don’t see many of your local players shipping stuff off to CK or Troll and Toad.

Kyle: Exactly. A few of them have been starting to do that Pucatrade thing to get off of things that just rot otherwise

     As you can see from our exchange, his store doesn’t have people asking about legacy so he doesn’t feel like there is any incentive for them to even try and run events. This ties in with the emails that I’ve been getting about the subject.

These problems are why I started writing this series to begin with. I can help you, as an individual, overcome the financial hurdles to build a great legacy deck without burning all of that disposable income but it took all of these emails to realize that having the deck is only one of the hurdle to overcome for what seems to be a lot of people. It takes a group of dedicated people to make a community work.

The best advice I can offer is to keep asking your store for a legacy event. If you get them to run an event, make sure you do everything you can to get everyone involved. There are a lot of budget options for legacy. Pretty much everyone can build a Burn deck.  Manaless Dredge is pretty cheap, but not everyone’s cup of tea. Substituting shock lands for dual lands is certainly an option. Having the allied fetchlands in standard will help with the cost of any legacy deck. You can even try and make a specific legacy budget challenge.  Try setting it up in a way that players are rewarded for taking advantage of the budget options available to them. The store can offer prizes for the player with the cheapest deck with the best record. This actually  reminds me of one of my favorite parts of the Vintage Championship at Eternal Weekend. They they run a bonus prize for the person that has the best record without using any of the power 9, Bazaars, Workshops, and a few other of the expensive cards. I think there was a deck that had 7 wins this year.

The key to all of this is getting as many people on board as possible. It  will showcase the diversity of the format and help your local community grow.  The people that enjoy it will be able to grow with you and gradually put together the top tier decks with all the goodies. These are the people that will make the trek to the bigger events around.  Remember, building a UWr Stoneblade isn’t something that is going to happen overnight, unless of course you have a lot of disposable income or very giving parents.

Writing this article and reading the emails made me realize just how lucky I am to have such a great legacy community, which has definitely made me wake up and rethink a lot of what I’m going to be writing about in future articles. I have to figure out how I’m going to implement my thoughts into positive changes for everyone. but it will be great. I promise that these changes will make for a better Legacy Hero! I’m going to stop here for today and pick things up next week where we left off.

I originally posted this deck at 7am without editing it.  I hadn’t slept the night before so I had planned on saving it as a draft, taking a 30 min nap and then editing it when I got into my office for the day. As many of you noticed, it didn’t happen like that. I posted it instead of saving it. I’m sorry for that. I want to give you guys the best product I can. This won’t happen again.

Before I go, I worked out a trade online using one of the many Facebook groups out there for trading. I’m going to show both sides of the trade and I want you guys to vote on which side you would rather be on. Vote here http://strawpoll.me/3167162

Side A:

  • Veteran Explorer x1
  • Reanimate x4
  • Rest in peace x2
  • Ad-Nauseam x1
  • Tendril of Agony x1
  • Dryad Militant x1
  • Swans of Bryn something x2
  • Mental Misstep x2
  • Forked Bolt x1
  • Serra Avenger x1
  • Mind Twist x1
  • Phyrexian Revoker x3
  • Hymn to Tourach x3
  • Exhume x4
  • Crop Rotation x3

Side B:

  • Spell Pierce
  • Daze x2
  • Steam Vents
  • Inquisition of Kozilek
  • Godless Shrine x2

As always you can email me mtglegacyhero on the gmail @somethingsays on twitter.

Commander Foil: Blue & My Modern Keeps

By Guo Heng Chin

Blue and I go a long way back. Throughout my competitive Magic life, I was a hardcore blue player. I would never attend a tournament without my arsenal of counterspells and card draw, be it a casual Friday Night Magic or a Pro Tour Qualifier. I still play blue nowadays and card draw spells have yet to cease to excite me but my love affair with blue has been less intense, in no small part due to Wizards pushing Magic’s design paradigm towards more interactivity (read: less counterspells, more creatures). Nevertheless, the majority of my Commander decks still run blue, as the number of design mistakes in blue is too damn high.

Before I begin, yes there was no typo in the title of today’s article. Its Commander Foil: Blue because I only wrote about a single Commander foil today.

My research initially yielded four blue Commander foil to discuss, but the Modern Masters 2015 announcement threw a wrench into my plans. It was no surprise that Helene Bergeot’s announcement before the finals of the World Championship would unveil the next Modern Masters set, however it was beyond my expectation that Modern Masters 2015 would include the blocks from the first Modern Masters( Eighth Edition through Alara Reborn) on top of the new blocks (Zendikar and Scars of Mirrodin).

I made my picks with the assumption that Modern Masters 2015 was going to pick up where Modern Masters left off, and at the very least includes Innistrad with Snapcaster Mage and Liliana of the Veil carrying a hefty price tags today. In retrospect I should have saw the hints: handing out Geist of Saint Traft and Griselbrand as tournament participation promos and Liliana of the Veil as the prize for winning a Preliminary Pro Tour Qualifier were Wizards’ attempts to alleviate the price of expensive Modern staples from Innistrad (someone mentioned this in an article or tweet but I could not seem to retrace it. Drop me a comment if you know who it was and I shall add a reference to that person). While I was happy that my Snapcaster Mages shall retain their value for a little longer, and potentially even experience a bump in price, the Modern Masters 2015 announcement meant that three out of four of my undervalued blue Commander foil picks, which were from the original Mirrodin block, were invalidated due to the increased risk of a foil reprint. Oh well, I guess I can’t have the cake and eat it too.

Nevermind that. The announcement of Modern Masters 2015 gave me plenty of writing fodder. Jared Yost wrote a marvelous overview of the cards that could see a reprint in Modern Masters 2015, so I am not going to discuss that that, read his article if you want an overview. The announcement of Modern Masters 2015 made me reevaluate a whole bunch of my Modern stakes, so after discussing the single remaining blue Commander foil, I am going to delve into an in-depth audit of my Modern holdings.

Stealing Spells in Style

First, put your hands together for the Commander foil of the day:

All your spells are belong to us.
All your spells are belong to us.

Gatecrash Foil Price: $1.97

No. of Foil Printings: 1

Gatecrash’s Primordial cycle was blatantly aimed at Commander players, with each Primordial triggering an iconic spell effect in its color upon entering the battlefield. Sylvan Primordial, the green one, was so game-warping that it was banned in Commander. While Diluvian Primordial was not the best Primordial in the cycle, it came pretty close to second. Commander games are full of powerful spells and stealing them and then casting them for free is just plain awesome and makes for many epic moments.

Diluvian Primordial also holds the virtue of being in the same color as the dreaded Deadeye Navigator, because stealing your opponents’ spells just once is not good enough. Foils of Diluvian Primordial are going for under $2 as Gatecrash is relatively fresh in the Magic community’s memory, but I doubt its price would remain the same as Gatecrash fades further away in time. Diluvian Primordial is technically a cheat card and as I have described in my article on the Increasing Savagery Theory, these sort of cards increase in potential as more cards are added to Magic’s card pool.

The risk of Diluvian Primordial getting reprinted in future blocks is relatively low; while the Primordial cycle cards have names and creature types that are generic enough to fit into most planes, I doubt Wizards would be keen on reprinting the whole cycle given that Sylvan Primordial is banned in Commander and the Primordial cycle is pretty much geared at Commander players. If the Primordials were to be reprinted, it would most likely be in a supplementary product like the now-annual Commander releases where Wizards has the liberty of printing each Primordial independent of the cycle. The annual Commander releases would not impact the foil price of cards.

A Personal Modern Audit

The cards in my modern portfolio whose fate I was most excited to hear about in Helene’s announcement were these guys:

Snapcaster Mage was not a snap pick in limited, but he made up for it by snapping a few Lightning Bolts in Modern.
Snapcaster Mage was not a snap pick in limited, but he made up for it by snapping a few Lightning Bolts in Modern.

I was watching Worlds at my local game store after their Preliminary Pro Tour Qualifier (spoiler: I did not do well with RG Bees) when Helene came on screen. I literally jumped with joy when I heard that Modern Masters 2015 would only cover sets up to and including New Phyrexia.

Those Tiago Chans have been sitting in my folder since Innistrad was legal. Snapcaster Mage’s growth has been slow but steady, sitting at $32 as of writing, slightly less than double my buy-in price. $15 in growth in two years was not a great investment admitedly, but I bought those Snapcasters with the intention to sit on them for a long time, a decision spurred by a thought experiment suggested by @rezaaba which went along the lines of How many Tarmogoyfs would you buy if you can go back in time?

Snapcaster sees more play than Tarmogoyf in Modern, and nearly as much presence as Tarmogoyf in Legacy according to mtgtop8.com. Snapcaster Mage is also played in Vintage. I am not saying that Snapcaster has the potential to reach the hallowed price of Tarmogoyf, and I highly doubt it ever will, but I do expect Snapcaster Mage to see a slow, sustained growth through the years along the lines of Dark Confidant and Vendilion Clique, both cards that saw less play than Snapcaster Mage. Granted those cards came from the pre-mythic era and were from sets with a significantly smaller print run than Innistrad, they were also played much less than Snapcaster Mage.

I am of opinion that Snapcaster Mage would still retain his price even with an eventual reprint, with a multitude of outcomes dependent on a few variables:

Outcome I: Snapcaster is reprinted as a mythic rare in the Modern Masters set after Modern Masters 2015 (lets call it Modern Masters 201X). Assuming the set would still be a limited print run and the boosters retain a premium price tag, Snapcaster Mage’s price would not tank at all. I am hesitant to predict that Snapcaster would follow in the footsteps of Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant and Vendilion Clique as the third Modern Masters edition is unlikely to spur that many new entrants into Modern as with the first Modern Masters.

Outcome II: Snapcaster is reprinted as a rare in Modern Masters 201X. Refer to Cryptic Command’s price trajectory after Modern Masters. It took a dip for a few months following Modern Masters’ release before clawing its way back up to higher heights, like a phoenix. From an economic point of view, I speculate that it is unlikely for Wizards to reprint Snapcaster Mage as a rare in Modern Masters 201X. By the time Modern Masters 201X comes around, Snapcaster Mage’s price would be much higher than his current price, and Snapcaster would be one of the marquee chase card of the set. Putting your marquee chase card as a rare reduces its exclusivity.

Outcome III: Snapcaster is reprinted as Grand Prix or World Magic Cup Qualifiers promo. These two scenarios would probably tank his price the most. However, I am using most in comparing it to the other outcomes, rather than in general. It is hard to predict how much of a hit Snapcaster’s price will take if he is handed out to every Grand Prix participant. Batterskull and Griselbrand, both eternal staple mythics with a single printing, have yet to recover from the dip caused by their Grand Prix promo, as with Geist of Saint Traft who lost half his value over the summer after being handed out as a WMCQ participation promo.

A note on cards with new art: The Modern Masters version of Dark Confidant and Sword of Fire and Ice demand a higher price tag compared to their older counterparts on average, with a more pronounced difference if you look at individual shops. This could be due to the fact that the Modern Masters version perceived to have a lower number of circulated copies. It is hard to predict the financial implications of a new art Snapcaster Mage. There are too many unknown variables here: how well-received will the new art be and how limited the print run of Modern Masters 201X would be. Regardless, I doubt new art would have an effect on the price of the old art version. It is not as if hordes of players would irrevocably reject the old art Tiago in favor a new face.

I am personally keeping my Snapcaster Mages for a few more years at the very least. Yes, I am taking a risk in which  one out of the three outcomes would result in a drop in price. I am willing to bear the risk because a) Snapcaster could not drop any lower than my buy-in price in 2012 and b) Snapcaster has the potential to be so much higher than he currently is it makes the risk tolerable.

Battering opponent's skulls since 2011.
Battering opponent’s skulls since 2011.

Thankfully those three Batterskulls above are my only copies and they are for personal use. A third copy just in case there comes a day when a tier one deck runs three copies of it. One day. Well, at least I do not need to share Batterskulls between my Duel Commander decks!

Tarmogoyf was pretty cheap. It only took three mana to turn it to your side of the board.
Tarmogoyf was pretty cheap. It only took three mana to turn it to your side of the board.

Threads of Disloyalty dodged the reprint bullet the first time around, but I doubt it will dodge it again. After a spike early this year, Threads is now sitting at $21, making it one of the more expensive sideboard cards in Modern and a good target for reprint. I am not sure how much would a Modern Masters 2015 reprint would hit its price in the long term. After all, Blood Moon is now twice its pre-Modern Masters price after taking a dip for a few months post Modern Masters.

Wizards laughed at the sanctity of the price of Modern staples.
Wizards laughed at the sanctity of the price of Modern staples.

See Threads of Disloyalty. Wizards be damned if it cost Modern players $81 just to hedge against Burn decks and discard spells (Three is the usual number of Leylines in the sideboard). Leyline of Sanctity is another card that is best bought a few months after Modern Masters 2015 comes out.

I scryed and I saw a bleak future for the price of Serum Visions.
I scryed and I saw a bleak future for the price of Serum Visions.

As Jared mentioned, Serum Visions is a highly likely candidate for reprinting. Theros had the scry mechanic, but unfortunately the plane does not have serum-producing Blinkmoths and Wizards is edging away from one mana blue cantrips from a design standpoint. Bad Wizards. I too think that there is a high chance we would be opening Serum Visions in Modern Masters 2015, seeing that Wizards chose not to reprint it in any of the supplementary products they could have fit Serum Visions in. I envision my $7 Serum Visions to be worth much less this time next year.

Eating Lighting Bolts since 2011.
Eating Lighting Bolts since 2011.

Another card I am glad that I only kept a personal playset.

Wizards is taking their promise to keep Modern accessible seriously and no Modern staples are safe from reprint. I think the era of insane Modern-induced spikes is coming to an end. That key four-of card in that new breakout deck at that GP/PT/SCG is too expensive? Just wait for the next Modern Masters/supplementary product/block set.

Modern staples are still viable investments but now with a lower profit margin and higher risk. If you want to speculate on Modern cards, do not get too greedy, leave the remaining 10% to the other person as per Corbin Hosler’s advice, be acutely aware of any news of upcoming products, and try your best to stay ahead of impending reprints with compulsive research.


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