Tag Archives: Grinder Finance

Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – One win from the Pro Tour

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While you usually come here to see my articles about MTG Finance, Corbin suggested I take the week off to talk about playing in Grand Prix Pittsburgh.  While I didn’t end up getting a Pro Tour invite from this past weekend, I did learn a lot about using your time wisely in a tournament.  And everyone knows time is money.

What did I play?

visual decklist

I played Naya Burn and for a very good reason.  My mental and physical fortitude was going to be tested in 15 or more rounds of Magic.  If you are not an expert Modern player, it’s hard to recommend any deck that is likely to go to time in the round throughout the tournament.  Burn has a pretty favorable matchup against most of the popular decks in the format.  Almost every 3 color deck is a walk in the park due to the pain from the mana base.  If and when a Scars styled fastland comes out for UR or BG combinations this may not be true.  You can compete with non-interactive combo decks like Bloom, Storm, Ad Nausem, and Goryo’s Vengeance decks by relying on a quick clock and Eidolon of the Great Revel.  Tron typically beats up on your worst matchups and often can’t mount any kind of defense before turn 3.  The move toward Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy and away from heavy counter spell decks made Burn a great choice for this weekend.

Card choices

I didn’t play Wild Nacatl.  While I think there is some place for “Cat Burn,” I don’t think this is a good time to be playing it.  The fact that Nacatl doesn’t have haste and people are more likely to have an answer before it can attack means it is often a liability.  The Searing Blazes over performed all weekend.  There are not many decks that have no targets but when you are able to get landfall, it is a complete blowout.  You are more likely to lose to decks that block your Goblin Guide than those that kill it.  Also, unlike Draconic Roar, you can’t counter Searing  Blaze by sacrificing the targeted creature.

The Sideboard

To be honest, some matches I didn’t sideboard any cards.  I may have gone a little overboard on things I didn’t end up playing.

  • Searing Bloods are great against the mirror, Elves, Affinity, Birds of Paradise decks, and are reasonable against infect. I wanted to make sure my good matchups stayed good and had some flexible cards for bad ones.
  • Deflecting Palm is a card that I think is pretty underrated as a sideboard option. It’s pretty good against Emrakul, Griselbrand, Tarmogoyf, Wurmcoil Engine, and Eidolon of the Great Revel, and Valakut the Molten Pinnacle but you have to be in a pretty vulnerable position to use it.   The downside is it’s miserable to draw more than one.
  • Molten Rain on the play is good against some decks. I don’t bring them in on the draw as they tend to be too slow and difficult to cast.  On the play it can punish a 3 color deck, Tron, or Amulet just long enough to get a win.
  • Destructive Revelry was fine this weekend. 4 is probably too many but I didn’t draw any against Affinity.
  • Smash to Smithereens is great against Tron and Affinity. It’s really just a 5th Destructive Revelry in those matchups.
  • Path to Exile was great. I think 3 is just the right number.  Drawing 2 feels miserable but drawing one is usually a blow out.  It’s not as clean as Self-Inflicted Wound against Tarmogoyf but I like it’s flexibility more.  I typically bring them in against anything Tarmogoyf decks, Twin, Tron (on the draw only), and any deck I suspect will play Kitchen Finks or Kor Firewalker.

Missing notables

  • Kor Firewalker is only really good in the mirror. You aren’t guaranteed to draw one and there are many other axis you can fight the mirror on.  My plan was to bring in Searing Blood and Deflecting Palm to keep their creatures off the board and counter their burn spells.
  • Blood Moon is too hard to cast. It doesn’t really do anything unless you have a creature in play and then it’s only marginally impactful.
  • Ancient Grudge may be a consideration next time. It doesn’t do any damage like Revelry or Smash to Smithereens but you’re also not just dead to a Spell Pierce.
  • Rending Volley is just worse than Path to Exile most of the time. There’s no reason to play this.

Matchups:

Round 1: Bye on Nothing – It was a tough battle but I managed to pull out a 2-0 win.  He shamefully dropped after the round.

Record 1-0

Round 2: Luke Bartosik on R/G Tron – This is a great way to start a tournament.  I won the die roll and proceeded to ruin his morning by attacking before his first turn with Goblin Guide.  His natural turn 3 Tron had no Wurmcoil Engine so the game ended shortly there after.  Game 2 he made a mistake of cracking his Expedition map using the colorless from both of his Grove of the Burnwillows.  This gave me an opportunity to seal the deal without fear of a Nature’s Claim.

Record 2-0

Round 3: Roman Fusco on Jund:  This was another great matchup for me.  An early creature followed by a flurry of burn spells ended game 1.  Game 2 I played an Eidolon after taking 6 damage from my lands by turn 2.  I then proceeded to take 8 damage from my Eidolon while my opponent cast a bunch of 4-6 mana spells.  The final Boros Charm put me to 3.

Record 3-0

Round 4: Matt Tumavitch on Affinity : This matchup is miserable if they draw a Cranial Plating or a Vault Skirge.  This matchup is usually unwinnable if they draw both.  Vault Skirge dispatched me quickly.

Record 3-1

Round 5: Ben Rasmussen on Jund: Okay back to Tarmogoyf and friends.  Game 1 went better than excepted as he got stuck on 1 land and Goblin Guide showed him his future of no additional lands.  Game 2 was rather close, I suspended two rift bolts with him at 4, expecting to win short of a Thragtusk.  After he -2 Liliana of the Veil targeting himself (sacrificing Kitchen Finks) and played Huntmaster I had to draw another spell to win the game.  Luckily, my deck is ~ 50% spells that do damage to my opponent.

Record 4-1

Round 6: Eric Feltner on Temur Twin: Three color mana bases are great for me.  He won the die roll but lead by fetchling a Steam Vents with a Scalding Tarn to play Grim Lavamancer, essentially saving me a whole spell.  Blind Fetch / Shock is one of the easiest ways for Burn to get ahead even if they’re on the draw.  Game 2 he played a Scavenging Ooze and that is actually way more terrifying than Tarmogoyf in most situations.  I was lucky to dispatch is quickly with a Searing Blaze and picked up another win.

Record 5-1

Round 7: Eric Blanchet on UR Twin: This is the point in the article where I had to go back and write last names because I had two opponents in a row named Eric playing twin.  This match went to three games as Burn really has no ability to play around the combo.  The crucial turn in the last game was me deciding if I should suspend my Rift Bolt or leave my Sacred Foundry untapped to represent a removal spell.  Ultimately I couldn’t beat a counter spell and a twin and if he just had a counter spell then not suspending the Rift Bolt just makes my next turn worse.  I dodged the untap, twin and won on the back of overloading their counter magic with sorcery speed burn.

Record 6-1

Round 8: Aryeh Wiznitzer on R/G Tron:  The greatest hits keep on coming and after keeping a really awkward hand with only a Lavamancer as my only creature I take a quick game 1.  After game 1 we got deck checked and Aryeh, a competitor from the top 8 of Atlanta last weekend, lamented on his loss last round to Burn.  After we got our decks back and he mulliganed to 5, I was a favorite to take the match in record time.  My turn 1 Goblin Guide into turn 2 Smash to Smithereens on his Spellskite would have been hard to beat on 7.  After another good matchup, I am locked up to play tomorrow.

Record 7-1

Round 9: Stephen Berrios on Grixis Twin: I had not played this matchup yet but got slowly killed game 1 after keeping a 1 land hand and having it tapped multiple turns in a row by Pestermite and Deceiver Exarch.  Before the end of the game he played a Thought Scour on himself and put 2 Splinter Twin into his graveyard.  “Score one for the good guys,” I chided.  We had a short discussion on whether Twin or Burn was the good guy.  Game 2 I won with a turn 1 Goblin Guide into a turn 2 Eidolon of the Great Revel.  He declined to Terminate it on his main phase so when I attacked I was able to Boros Charm to keep it alive.  The damage is a wash (since the Eidolon gets in for another 2 and then deals 2 more on the next removal spell) unless he draws a big blocker or doesn’t play more 3 or less mana spells.  I ended up ahead in that exchange as his next turn was Snapcaster Mage + Lightning Bolt to kill the Eidolon.  Game 3 was another haste creature followed by a flurry of spells.  Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy makes these decks more likely to play removal than counter spells and makes it extremely difficult to interact with Burn.

Record 8-1

At the end of the first day I did better than expected.  A number of good matchups came my way and I only had to play against Affinity once.  I ran through the rain to the nearest sit down restaurant and stuffed my face before going to sleep.

Day 2:

Round 10: Richard Roberts on Jeskai Kiki-Twin?: I was pretty confused by his deck game 1 because he played a turn 1 Grim Lavamancer off of a fetchland and a shockland.  He didn’t draw any particularly relevant threats and played a Valorous Stance on his Grim Lavamancer when I went to Searing Blaze it.  I figure his deck doesn’t actually play counter magic and take game 1.  Game 2 I missed an opportunity to kill him when he played a Village Bell-Ringer with only red mana untapped.  Luckily he played a Restoration Angel the next turn and I was able to fire off 3 instant speed burn spells to kill him from 8.

Record 9-1

Round 11: Christopher Harabas on UR Twin:  I don’t have good notes on this match but it seems like Goblin Guide revealed multiple Splinter Twins which is never good for them.  Life pad says he probably died because he fetched at 5.  Sorry if you’re reading this Chris!

Record 10-1

Round 12: Robert Cucunato on Affinity: Wheels gotta fall off somewhere, right?  This match took 5 turns after I conceded to the unstoppable Vault Skirge with Cranial Plating.  The upside was I was able to use the other 40 minutes of this round to grab food and use the restroom.  It’s great to be playing burn, right?

Record 10-2

Round 13: Adam Schop on Jund:  This was another typical play all my spells and win the game sorta deal.  I took a minute to decided if I should cast spells on my turn or not and Adam encouraged me to play faster.  I’m not sure how to take that since the matchup took 20 minutes total but whatever.

Record 11-2

Round 14:  Charles League on Abzan Company:  Well if you thought Vault Skirge was bad, I won game 1 after my opponent played 3 Kitchen Finks!  I wasn’t sure if I was in Top 8 contention but I was feeling reasonably good after dispatching someone that gained 12 life that game.  Games 2 I almost lost immediately as he played a Kor Firewalker on turn 2 but a timely Path to Exile dispatched it.  I ended up unable to assemble the exact amount of burn required to kill him before he had infinite life.  Game 3 I kept a 1 land hand on the play with multiple 1 mana spells.  Unfortunately I was unable to draw a second land for many turns and put enough pressure to kill him before he gained infinite life.  Unfortunately decks that “gain infinite life” are a bad matchup.

Record 11-3

Round 15: Matthew Rayes on Grixis Control: Game 1 was one of the longest I had played all weekend.  We were both at 1 after I Searing Blazed his lethal Snapcaster Mage but his follow up Tasigur was better than the fetchland I drew.  Game 2 I got off to an early lead with a Goblin Guide followed by a Grim Lavamancer.  Overloading his removal early allowed both creatures to sneak in some damage and the remaining burn spells put the game away.  Game 3 I played a turn 1 Goblin Guide and his “removal spell” of choice was a Snapcaster Mage doing it’s best Ambush Viper impression.  Unfortunately for him I had the Searing Blaze that was greeted by a audible look of disbelief as he fell to 12 on my 2nd turn of the game.  A few Lava Spikes later and I was packing my cards up getting ready to get on the plane.

Final Thoughts

Modern is a fine format.  It definitely has some rock – paper – scissors type matchups which are unfortunate.  Luck has a lot to do with how often you will win or lose in large tournaments.  That being said, Lava Spike is pretty much the best spell in the deck.  It’s awkward in the fact that it’s a sorcery and only costs 1 mana so it’s very difficult to counter.  It also can’t be redirected to a Spellskite. I think this deck benefits a lot from the Vancouver Mulligan rule as I was able to frequently send back 4 land 3 spell hands and keep 3 land 3 spell hands.  I would recommend it to anyone looking to make a jump into Modern as it’s relatively inexpensive and extremely powerful.

Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – Future Proofing

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With the wrap up of Grand Prix Seattle / Tacoma (which is really just Tacoma, I don’t understand why Seattle is even mentioned), many people got another taste of the eternal format, Legacy.  Many players look at the huge turn out and wonder “why aren’t there more Legacy Grands Prix? Look at how many people went to this one!”  While I understand these sentiments from the very vocal Legacy community, I don’t think it’s a good place to invest your future in Magic.

With the announcements from StarCity Games (here), the number of large Magic events is being cut in 2016.  StarCity games often had an open every weekend (including some holiday weekends) but has announced at least 5 weekends off in their first of 3 seasons this year (ending April 10th).  While I won’t analyze the effect of less organized play opportunities as a whole on Magic, I will point out the breakdown of the 9 events.  There are 5 Standard events, 3 Modern events, and only 1 Legacy offering in these 4 months.  This cut back on Legacy in favor of Modern is indicative of a larger trend away from player’s non-rotating format of choice from Legacy to Modern.  There are a lot of reasons why, but it’s been in the numbers for a while.

wasteland

How the mighty have fallen, right?  Legacy cards have been heralded like blue chip stocks.  They have nowhere to go but up, right?  Wasteland is technically an uncommon and not part of the reserve list so it could be reprinted at any time.  Consumer confidence isn’t high on this card and it’s lack of Legacy play that is causing it to fall.

volcanic island rev

Even Revised Volcanic Island (arguably the most important land in the format) has seen a downward trend.  Although it is nowhere the pre-spike value of a mere $150, I can’t see this card rebounding nearly as fast as Modern investments.

volcanic island unl

Unlimited edition Volcanic Islands have faired a little bit better because they’re legal in that niche 93/94 format.  Given the fact that Volcanic Island was accidentally left off the Alpha print sheet (seriously, go ask a vendor if they have an Alpha Volcanic Island), there are far fewer choices for this dual land in this format.  If you want to invest in a dual, this is probably the best one (with scarcity being the only thing that continues to drive it’s price up).

But what about Modern cards? They’re just like Wasteland and can be reprinted.  What is happening to their price tags?  Well let’s take a look at some cards from Modern Masters that were greatly affected by the reprint.

aether vial mm arcbound ravager glimmervoid

If you spent that $300 you could have spent to buy 1 Volcanic Island on Glimmervoid or Arcbound Ravager (cards that were not reprinted in Modern Masters 2015) in June, then you could have doubled your money in October.  The constant cycle of reprints is pushing the oldest cards to the front of the top gainers page each year.

The ease of turning Standard cards into Modern cards has never been higher with each set adding a few important cards to a Modern deck.  In fact, if you own the Standard Atarka Red deck right now you also own a minimum of 16 cards for a Modern burn deck.  It’s much easier to make the transition to Modern than Legacy and it’s more easy to support Modern at the LGS level because of sustainable reprints.

That being said, I’m not trying to take a shot at Legacy as a format.  I’m just voicing my concerns for continuing to hold cards that are highly influenced by their play in Legacy.  I think there are a number of ways Legacy can evolve as a format to allow for better game play and increased interest but I don’t think this is the place to explain that.

Upgrading your Trade Binder

What can we learn from Modern Masters to apply to our portfolio at the end of this year?

fulminator

This is my go-to target for an easy double up.  As long as big mana decks like Tron and Amulet Bloom continue to see play, this will have a home.  All it takes is one weekend where Bloom or Tron win to cause a rush to buy Fulminator Mages.  The Shadowmoor Fulminator Mage hit highs of $60 before being reprinted, I can’t fathom a world where this doesn’t get back to $40 again before a reprint.

noble hierarch

In continuing my trend of picking Modern Masters 2015 creatures, I think Noble Hierarch is another all-star that needs to be looked at.  True multi-deck staples will be the quickest to recover.  Noble Hierarch also gets some points for being the mainstay of a relatively inexpensive tier 1 deck, Infect.

spellskite

You know what’s more of a horror than Spellskite’s creature type?  It’s one of few cards that has actually increased in price since it was reprinted.  It eats Kolaghan’s Command like a champ, protects anyone from Lightning Bolts to the dome, gives Tarmogoyf +2/+2, and prevents Twin and Infect from winning pretty much on the spot.  Spellskite is like the perfect passive aggressive significant other that just sits in play protecting you at the potential cost of 2 life.  Anyone that doesn’t have multiple of these will be scrambling for them when Modern events kick into high gear again.

Not everything is gold, however.  I would avoid any cards that got reprinted in both Modern Masters and Modern Masters 2015.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see the trio of Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant, and Vendilion Clique show up as marquee cards in Modern Masters 2017 (or whenever the next Modern Masters set is).  Some cards that got reprinted as a mythic but are a little more niche are also probably fine pickups.  Mox Opal will be in for a price correction if Ravager and Glimmervoid get printed again.  Karn will likely see a jump if Grove of the Burnwillows is in our near future.

You know what’s a real odd one?

kor spiritdancer

Kor Spiritdancer is probably a pretty decent investment for the near future.  This card has been on an upward trend since the $30+ Daybreak Coronets got reprinted.  Boggles decks are largely a collection of draft commons and Horizon Canopy  so they are a perfect budget option for a lot of players.  At some point, something in the deck has to be worth something and this is probably it.  It’s hard to reprint since the Kor are native to Zendikar and there isn’t an enchantment theme going on like during Rise of the Eldrazi.

 

Final Thoughts

  • I really don’t want to hold onto Sensei’s Divining Tops right now.  If Legacy is ever going to evolve into a format that is enjoyable to the general player base, that card will need to be banned.  It sits on the Modern banned list for similar reasons as to why it will probably eventually get banned.
  • In my opinion, Wizards needs to figure out a way to print creatures that cost more than one and less than eight that provide exciting game play for Legacy to experience any growth.
  • Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged cards are at the highest they will be for the next 2 years.  I do not expect any kind of jump in January when Oath of the Gatewatch is released.  Sell accordingly.
  • Expect a shake-up on the Modern ban list prior to the Pro-Tour in January.  Given the heath of the format, an unban seems more likely than a ban.
  • I expect a new Kozilek to be in Oath of the Gatewatch.  If he is as game ending as Ulamog, expect a green Eldrazi ramp deck to be good.
  • I don’t expect the Commander 2015 decks to be a total bust.  If you can pick up Sword of Selves or Command Beacon in trades they should mature well.
  • Next week I will bring you some information from the vendors and artists at GP Atlanta
Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – Winding Down the Year

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With the conclusion of this three-Grands Prix weekend, we draw ever closer to the end-of -year lull in Magic.  Let’s talk about some new announcements and discuss the expected price drops in the comings weeks.

Shadows Over Innistrad

If you are a Vorthos player, you may have been expecting this.  In this article, Ugin explains to Jace that the only way to stop the Eldrazi is to seal them again.  He instructs Jace to go to Innistrad and find Sorin and bring him back to Zendikar.  Another important thing that Ugin mentions is that the Eldrazi Titans will planeswalk away when mortally threatened.  There are a few expectations we can draw from these events.

  • Shadows over Innistrad is the start of a new block.  It will be treated like a large fall set.
  • Liliana is MIA in the Zendikar storyline, I expect to see her return in Innistrad (This would be a prime place to reprint Liliana of the Veil without devotion in Standard)
  • We may see flashback return in SOI but with a Snapcaster Mage RPTQ promo he will likely not return in the set.
  • We may see an Eldrazi titan escape and attack Innistrad (Given the fact that Oath of the Gatewatch‘s set symbol looks like Kozilek’s head shards, it will probably be Emrakul)

This is all of course speculation but so far the story articles seem to be a reliable way to tell the future.

Why are we going back to Innistrad?

maro

With a real definition of what is “new” and what isn’t, I expect this to continue to in the future and be a conduit for important reprints outside of Modern Masters.  We can expect the Fall 2016 set to be a “new” plane.

Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s shift gears and talk about events.

What events are left in the 2015 calendar year?

Do you know how many weekends of Grands Prix are left? After this triple Grands Prix weekend, there are five left on three weekends to close out the year.  Seattle/Tacoma (Legacy), Atlanta (Sealed), and Pittsburgh (Modern) are the last three Grands Prix in North America this year.  There are two Standard GPs left, one in Brussels and one in Kobe, and that’s it!  There is over a month off and then GP Oakland opens up the year with a Standard Grand Prix before almost another month off before the next set of Grands Prix after the release of Oath of the Gatewatch.  Thats not a lot of Standard being played outside of the LGS level.

Let’s take a look at the other major circuit, the Star City Games Open Series. There are five SCG opens for the remainder of the year.  Four are Standard (Philadelphia, Kansas City, Denver, and Las Vegas) and one is Legacy (New Jersey).  That’s also not a lot of opportunities for the rest of the year to play in high level Magic events.

What does this all mean?  Well, it precludes the December price dips.  You basically have one month to sell or trade any Standard cards you will not need for the rest of the year before their price starts to drop significantly.  I already traded away my Gideon, Ally of Zendikar this weekend for Eternal playables. I would recommend dumping any Khans of Tarkir cards especially since there will be no more Standard Pro Tours to breathe new life into them before they rotate.

siege rhino price

As you can see from this graph, the post Pro Tour price tag quickly dips into a yearly low in December.  If you want to get expensive cards from Battle for Zendikar, I’d wait until then.

gideon price

Although Gideon doesn’t have a long price history, we can see he’s peaked and is already on his slow descent.  I’m just guessing here but I could see Gideon being as cheap as $20 by Christmas.  While it’s clear he will be a player in Standard for his entire lifetime, it is unwise to hold copies you’re not actively using.  But, it’s not all gloom and doom for a buyer.

shrinesanctum\

These two lands have already shown up in some decks as a way to ramp out huge Eldrazi.  It might not be a thing today but I feel like the deck is very close to breaking out.  I wouldn’t be surprised if these two lands are the mainstay of a top tier deck in Oath of the Gatewatch.  Kind of hilariously, right now that is the basis for one of the cheaper Standard decks as it doesn’t play any fetchlands, Gideons, or Jaces.  At about $0.50 per land, I wouldn’t fault you for picking up a playset of each in preparation for Kozilek in Oath of the Gatewatch.

Grand Prix Articles

Do you like the articles that Jeremy (@LengthyXemit) does for Grands Prix?  I will be lucky enough to attend the last two American Grands Prix of the year and can provide some commentary for people looking to buy cards.  Are there other questions you have for the Grand Prix process?

I took a week off due to some work-related complications but I will have the Pucatrade article for next week!  Hope you all had an awesome Halloween and I look forward to your comments below!

 

Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – Winter is Coming

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winter is coming

 

Yes, I realize it’s August.  I know it’s pretty much the middle of summer, and my article’s title makes little sense.  But give me a minute before you close the window to explain.  Winter is coming, and I don’t mean in the Stark way.

Note: Some of things I’m going to talk about are from the point of view of someone living in North America.  These examples may not be accurate to people living in Europe, Asia, and especially in the Southern Hemisphere.

So when people say “Oh yeah it’s Modern season,” what do they really mean?  Well there are two types of “seasons” in Magic.  One season has now become the Preliminary Pro Tour Qualifier (or PPTQ) season.  There have been many versions of the PPTQ seasons but now there is a specific format for each one.  There are 4 PPTQ seasons per year (one for each Pro Tour) and they can only be the constructed format that corresponds to the Pro Tour or Sealed Deck.  What that means is with 3 Standard Pro Tours per year and 1 Modern Pro Tour per year, we get 3 seasons of Standard and 1 season of Modern.  Basically,  it’s almost always Standard season.  Even during the Modern PPTQ season there are plenty of people playing Standard at FNM, Grands Prix, StarCity Games Opens, etc.  For this reason, Standard cards are not affected by the PPTQ Season.

Standard cards however, are susceptible to the changing of the 4 seasons of weather.  Let’s talk about the last year of season to explain how we got to where we are.

Fall / Autumn :

Theros

This is the season where the typical large Fall set is released.  Depending on the day of the week, most of these sets release in late September or early October (Magic products always release on a Friday).  In the previous rotation cycle, this is set entering Standard kicks an entire year of Magic out of Standard.  With the release of Theros, Innistrad block and M13 both rotated out.  The cards from this set are usually very powerful in order to shake up a lame duck standard format.  Typically cards from this set are also under very volatile conditions the first month as people figure out the “new” Standard.  This is generally a poor time to buy cards because prices are high due to lack of supply.

Winter:

Born of the Gods

The winter set was the middle set of a 3 set block but now will be the last set in 2  set block.  Born of the Gods, like many middle sets, was a small set that is supposed to greatly impact standard.  Unfortunately this time Born of the Gods was unable to be the big shakeup set that some middle sets, like Gatecrash, can be.  Currently there are only 2 cards in the set worth over $5 and this was true for most of it’s lifetime.  This set is usually released in early February.  It is critically timed right after the holiday break when most people will return to playing Magic.

Spring:

Journey into Nyx

The final set of 3 set blocks is released in the Spring.  It allows for the “final piece” of many decks to be assembled and become dominant.  Cards from this set have to push some boundaries to make a splash in an otherwise established format.  When this set is released, Standard’s card pool is almost at it’s largest.  It makes it a lot harder for cards to break into the spotlight.  In Journey into Nyx, Constellation was saved for this set to hopefully revitalize the enchantment theme.  It was not very successful but recent emergence of Starfield of Nyx and Herald of the Pantheon have completed the deck as Wizards may have initially wanted it.

Summer:

m15

All Magic blocks culminate into Summer Slam… Or maybe that’s wrestling.  I always get those two mixed up because they’re so alike…  Anyway, the summer set is usually released in July.  It usually has pretty poor sales compared to Fall sets and card scarcity is usually a big issue.  This set is not opened as much because a lot of people go on vacation or (in the case of college students) are out of school for the summer.

 

Now what does that all mean for a card?  Let’s take a look at Stormbreath Dragon for a historical analysis of how the seasons affect a card price.

Click to enlarge
Click image to enlarge

Stormbreath Dragon was released in October of 2013 in the fall set, Theros.  We can see it starts at pre-order price about $20.  Many people compared it to the much loved Thundermaw Hellkite but still many were skeptical of it’s smaller stats.  Then within a few weeks, peopled played with the card and realized it was insanely good! Boom, over night basically it was a $40 card.  That’s typical of popular fall set mythic rares.  And then afterwards, we see the slow decline into winter.  The peaks and valleys of this price graph is typical of cards from the fall set because of the seasons.  People play a lot less Magic during the month of December.  Wizards of the Coast Organized Play events go on break for usually the entire month of December and people frequently go home to visit family for the holidays.  This is by far the best time to buy into the fall set.  The best time to buy Battle for Zendikar will likely be during December and January.  Why?  Well because right after this dip back into reality, there is usually a spike around February after the 2nd set of the block is released.  Some decks become revitalized with new cards and people are excited to return to what they used at the beginning of the last set release.  Stormbreath Dragon again climbs up for a few months.

The second best time to buy the fall Standard-legal cards is the summer following it’s release.  This used to be the time for much maligned Core set releases.  Prices dip once again because some people want to go to the beach or do stuff outside.  Personally, I don’t know why anyone would want to go out into the sun and ruin their perfect pale complexion, but to each their own I suppose!  Summer is also another break for students.

The next peak for Stormbreath Dragon is… in the fall again?  Yep, traditionally rotation occurs with the new fall set.  This means anything that was keeping a card down from the previous block rotates out and it’s a brand new format!  The thing that really shakes up at rotation is how many cards are leaving and entering.  With the release of Khans of Tarkir in the fall of 2014, 269 new cards were entering the format.  The rotation of Return to Ravnica block and Magic 2014 removed 928 cards from the format!  Players are often not prepared for this amount of churn.  It’s been a while since anyone has drafted the previous years’ sets and people are excited to open new cards.  This causes the single prices for the previous block to increase due to no increased supply but greatly increased demand.

And then as soon as it happens, it’s winter again.  December and January see large drops in card prices across the board. This year was a little weird because two set releases were a little sooner than usual.  Fate Reforged was released almost two weeks earlier than usual (January 23rd vs Born of the Gods, which was released on February 7th).  Dragons of Tarkir was released a MONTH earlier than Journey into Nyx (March 27th vs May 2nd).  This was change was to accommodate the much-anticipated Modern Masters 2015 (released May 22nd).  The last hurrah for Stormbreath Dragon was a little later than usual because Dragons of Tarkir, as the name might imply, has many synergies with Dragons.

Side note: Dragon’s Maze continues to be one of the biggest disappointments because you can’t name a set “Dragon” and have none in it.

Notice how the last hurrah ended in May?  With the release of Modern Masters 2015, many people decided they were done with Theros block cards.  Grand Prix Las Vegas was largely responsible for the huge sell off of Theros block staples that cause the sharp decline in the Dragon’s Price.  From here on out we can see what lame duck cards do until the end of the format.  Stormbreath Dragon will be a great card for many years to come and pretty difficult to reprint due to Monstrosity.  If you were waiting to grab these for EDH your prime time is closing in.

Now for the feedback part of this article.  How do you like the structure? Would you like to see how seasons affect cards from the Winter, Spring, and Summer sets?  My next article will explain how play seasons affect Modern card prices.