The full spoiler for Eternal Masters is out and the moment of truth is upon us.  There’s one thing and one thing only on my mind regarding this set: how will it impact prices?  Whether or not this is a balanced set, a good draft format, good EV, or fun to play is irrelevant to me.  As an MTG finance person first and player second, my natural response to the set is one of financial analysis.

There are two analyses that can be conducted now that the full set is spoiled: an intra-set analysis and an extra-set analysis.  That is, what will cards in the set do price-wise and what will cards outside the set do price-wise.  These are two very different perspectives that each merit their own dedicated column.  This week I’m going to focus on the intra-set analysis.

Basis for Prediction

Before I begin assessing individual cards, first I want to briefly summarize my approach.  First and foremost I need to assume a print run – given the lack of Grand Prix to celebrate the release of Eternal Masters, I don’t believe the print run will be as large as Modern Masters 2015.  But based on the fact that prices didn’t tank after MMA and MM2015, I speculate that Wizards of the Coast would want to err on printing more packs than less simply because it will generate more sales.  Therefore, I’m going to assume a print run of MM2015 and use MM2015 pricing to predict magnitude of price change.  If nothing else, the MM2015 assumption will allow for a “worst case” prediction.

Next, I’m going to leverage MM2015 reprints as a way to predict the direction of EMA prices.  The closer a parallel exists, the easier it will be to predict price movement.  A card’s utility in different formats will most certainly carry heavy weight in this comparison.  A strictly casual card must be compared with another strictly casual card in as many cases as possible.  This is especially true when considering the ubiquity of a card in a respective format as well as the quantity of copies played in decks that use said card.  All of this will become clear once I begin my analysis so rather than dribble on here, let’s jump in!

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While Standard and Modern begin to establish consistent metagames, I’m noticing a flattening of price trends across much of MTG lately.  Sure, you still have explosive growth as players begin combining Nahiri with Emrakul in Modern, but Nahiri has got to be in the minority.

Many staples across multiple formats have seen their growth mature and, ultimately, stagnate.  Even my favorite Old School format has seen some stagnation in price growth in most cases lately.  Legacy, too has become uninspiring from an MTG finance standpoint.

But that may be about to change.

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