Next week is a significant week in MTG finance – the first Pro Tour since Standard rotated! Pro Tours are typically very powerful catalysts to move and shake the market, often leading towards huge spikes in prices. Remember when Return to Ravnica first came out and Angel of Serenity made a splash? The card, which had pre-ordered for $5-$10 in advance of the Pro Tour, skyrocketed to an all time high after appearing on camera during the event.
Of course, the momentum could not be continued, rampant selling ensued, and the card crashed from a high of $25 to around $8 in a couple months. The card tried to rally back that Spring, but the bounce was short-lived. Never again did the card show any life, and it still hovers just above bulk mythic status two years later.
As you can see in such a volatile chart, buying and selling at the right time was absolutely critical to make profits. Buying at $7 and selling at $20 is a tremendous feeling, but buying during a Pro Tour spike at $17 and then watching the card’s price fade from $20 to $12 in the week it takes for your cards to arrive is absolutely miserable. There’s a right and a wrong way to take advantage of Pro Tour hype and this week I want to share my strategy using a few case studies to help me along the way.
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Another week has gone by and with it another handful of spiking cards are in the books. This time, though, many of the recent jumps were catalyzed by a very definitive occasion: the recent ban and restricted announcement. By now, everyone probably knows the changes but I’ll share it here for easy referencing.
And then, there are other cards that more than doubled since last week with no apparent cause. This week I’m going to scrutinize some of the movers and shakers of the week, calling out whether I believe their new price will stick, go even higher, or fall back down to earth. Each card will either have the right demand base or it won’t: it’s Fact or Fiction Week!
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This is getting out of hand, folks. I understand the card is unique and on the Reserved List, but let’s get serious. Pendrell Mists?
The price chart on this site doesn’t even reflect any movement and still values the card at a buck. This is because stores haven’t really reacted to this spike yet, and for good reason. What deck wants this card outside of the most casual of casual lists?
And I completely understand the possible synergies with Squandered Resources, but did that merit the recent 970% spike on this Reserved List card? I think not.
These crazy buyouts, combined with the recent jumps in Old School cards, are reshaping the way I approach MTG finance. At this point, do we even need to have a legitimate hypothesis when buying into cards? Or can we simply pick up copies of any older card on the Reserved List and wait for the inevitable over-reaction of the market? Let’s take a step back and approach this objectively this week.
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A recent discussion about the stock market with a friend last week catalyzed some relevant MTG finance thoughts to flow through my mind. The friend asked me about a stock that he regretted not purchasing, after watching the ensuing outperformance of the equity. He was disgruntled for not trusting his own instincts. I tried my best to alleviate his distress by pointing out how a missed opportunity to profit is certainly not the same as an incurred loss.
Shortly after our chat I was faced with a paralleled emotion in the world of Magic, and I almost made the same reckless mistake I cautioned my friend to avoid on Wall Street. The card that triggered this reaction of mine is Scout’s Warning. Ever heard of it? Don’t worry if you haven’t – I never had either until someone mentioned it to me.
Apparently the scout assigned to alert me to random buy-outs was not on duty last week because I received no warning about the card’s movement. TCG Player sold out completely, and I could find only a few lingering copies on the oft-forgotten website Cardshark.com. In reaction to the movement, I scrambled to add about a dozen copies of the card to my shopping cart. But before I clicked “Complete Purchase” I hesitated just a moment.
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