The Definitive Tier List for Potential Commander Unbannings

Aetherdrift is on sale today, and let’s be honest, Ketramose is lighting up all sorts of cards. BW Blink is a big deck in Modern right now, and it’s about to get a powerful draw engine. Psychic Frog plus Darkblast and Ketramose is a deadly combo that we’re going to see a lot of as well. It’s $50, and we’re going to see that price go higher this weekend and hopefully it comes down to something reasonable. 

It’s not going to be soon, though, because people are buying the card four at a time…and it’s worthwhile to do that. It might come down if the meta shifts, but I expect Ketramose to hit $75 in the next week, and after that, supply should bring that back down. Heaven help us if there’s a Standard deck as well as the Modern implications.

However, from a MTG Finance perspective, the biggest news of the week was Commander-related. We got an explanation of the Commander Brackets system, a list of Game Changer cards, but most importantly, Gavin Verhey saying that sometime in April, there will be some cards unbanned in Commander. 

Frankly, there’s already been a lot of buying around this potential news, and all sorts of speculation online about which cards he’s referring to. I’m here to give you the definitive list of what is and isn’t getting unbanned, now that Wizards runs the banned list.

We’re going to put this in tiers, from the zero-chance (F tier) to the ‘absolutely going to happen sometime’ (S tier). For each, I’m going to put down the current cheapest price, and what that price could go to. More premium versions will of course go wild too. I’m presuming that the cards will not get a reprint to go with the unbanning, and if that happens, watch out.

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Is It A Good Idea To Buy The Winter Superdrop 2025?

Here we are, with previews coming up, a set releasing next week, and now there’s a Secret Lair Superdrop to contend with. There are eight drops in this go-round, and they go on sale at 9 am PST/12 noon EST On Monday, February 10. 

There is a wide variety of art going on here, from the most basic to gorgeous borderless, IP crossovers, and one that verges on copyright infringement. Secret Lairs are most profitable when you focus on the home runs and avoid the ones that do nothing but linger on shelves. Let’s talk about all 8, and do some figuring on what is worth buying.

Secret Lair x Hatsune Miku: Winter Diva

Card NamePrice RangeEDHREC decks
Giada, Font of Hope$1-$8018k as commander (#17 all time) and
30k as card
Youthful ValkyrieBulk to $221k
CounterspellBulk to $5001,078,000 (not a typo)
Swan Song$9 to $63413k
Brago, King Eternal$2 to $108k as commander, 39k as card
Scrying Sheets$5 to $409225 decks

We also have seen that Beloved Princess is the bonus card for this drop, which is very on-theme. It’s got almost no Commander usage, and while it will go for a couple bucks to Miku collectors, it’s not super relevant to whether this drop will sell well.

This drop will sell very well. The Mana Foil Giada is gorgeous, and this should be a worthy contender. Brago is a great theme, but the standout here is the Swan Song. This is a super popular card in regular and CEDH alike, and there has not yet been a special version of the one-mana counter. If this was a regular, non-Miku drop, I would be a fan of the drop just for that reason, as the only foil is the Theros pack foil. There is a previous Secret Lair version from Ornithological Studies, but that was non-foil only. 

However, this is the last Miku drop. The first was all gas, the second very popular, and the third was weird. Quickly sold out of English foil, English nonfoil took a little longer but did sell out, and the two Japanese-language versions are still available on the site. Ouch.

I think that the third drop being mediocre planeswalkers plus an increased quantity printed led to the current situation. I fully expect the English versions to sell fast here, and the Swan Song should be the most profitable card of the batch. 

Aether Drifters

Card NamePrice RangeEDHREC decks
Parhelion II50¢ to $331k
Mechtitan CoreBulk to $322k 
Reckoner Bankbuster$1 to $427k
Smuggler’s Copter$1 to $2047k
Peacewalker ColossusBulk to $222k

I have to admit I love this concept. It’s a racing set, and this is amazingly replicating the look of a Hot Wheels blister card, down to the price tag as power//toughness and the printed cutout for hanging displays. They can’t actually use the Hot Wheels IP, as that’s Mattel, one of Hasbro’s main rivals. The Vehicles themselves are extremely mid, and only the Fortnite version of the Copter keeps this from being one of the absolute cheapest drops we’ve ever had. Remember, Bankbuster was banned in Standard, but it’s rotated out anyway and no one plays it. 

This art and style will probably not be enough to get this to sell out quickly. Top IP can lead to sellouts, but these are such mediocre cards that my expectations are quite low.

Arcade Racers

Card NamePrice RangeEDHREC decks
Roiling Vortex$2 to $739k
Wheel of Misfortune$5 to $2296k
Big Score$1 to $3226k
Final Fortune$8 to $20049k
Heat Shimmer$5 to $4030k

This is a fantastically designed set of cards, and while they aren’t expensive, the special versions aren’t cheap either. I love that we get two special frames in the same drop, increasing my desire for the foil bundle. There’s a chance that this Big Score becomes a $10 card, but I’d rather go in on singles after the drop lands, instead of trying to get a bunch of these. I really appreciate that this is the only special frame for most of these, aside from an EA Vortex, a Future Sight Final Fortune, and the other SL version of Wheel.

Lorwyn Lightboxes

Card NamePrice RangeEDHREC decks
Secluded GlenBulk to $4018,000
Wanderwine Hub$1 to $132200
Ancient Amphitheater50¢ to $55000
Auntie’s Hovel$6 to $133700
Gilt-Leaf Palace$4 to $3515,000

These haven’t seen a lot of reprint efforts. There’s a List copy here and there, and an occasional Commander deck inclusion, but definitely no new foils to be had and these are some very pretty examples of what an artist can do. Amazingly, this is still a more expensive drop than the Aether Chasers, but my expectations are still pretty low. 

Artist Series: Jesper Ejsing

Card NamePrice RangeEDHREC decks
Llanowar ElvesBulk to $450504k
Deflecting Swat$43 to $70405k
Breeches, Eager PillagerBulk to $1.5030k
Sun TitanBulk to $9235k

The tragedy of this drop is that a really talented artist did some fantastic paintings and they weren’t even given a chance to go borderless, or even the EA treatment. Compare this to any of the more recent artist spotlights, or any of the three artists featured in other drops in this Superdrop, and you’ll see what I mean.

It doesn’t matter, though, because this has three very popular cards and one of them is $43 in the base nonfoil. I cannot guarantee that this will sell out, but even the Extra Life Fierce Guardianship, which sold as much as people wanted to buy, went from $33 up to near $50 now. If you wanted to jump on Deflecting Swat singles early on, that would be valid too.

Featuring: Luke Pearson

Card NamePrice RangeEDHREC decks
Bear Umbra$6 to $40106k 
Witch of the Moors$1 to $333k
Realmwalker$2 to $6132k
Solemn Simulacrum$1 to $70717k 

My kids have seen the Netflix adaptation of Pearson’s Hilda books, and they are approving. It’s not like these are specific to the cards, but it’s the same art style. The card choice is solid: Realmwalker just has an FEA of the original, this is the first foil of Witch, Bear Umbra’s only other foil is the ROE pack foil, and Solemn has a hundred variations leading up to the Invention. 

It’s mainly cashing in reprint equity, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw any of these get another new version sometime soon, but this is a solid drop that should do okay.

City Styles 2: Dressed to Kill

Card NamePrice RangeEDHREC decks
Karmic Guide$2 to $18103k
Ninja of the Deep Hours$1 to $2030k
Captain Sisay$17 to $901400 as commander, 16k as card
Selvala, Explorer ReturnedBulk to $202000 as commander, 36k as card
Veyran, Voice of Duality$7 to $188k as commander, 54k as card

Before you go crazy, knowing that City Styles 1 is $175 on TCGPlayer, please keep in mind that Tsubonari’s first drop was in a different era, when it was print to demand and not many bought it. Those first five cards don’t have anything super valuable or premium, they just look cool, and these are in that same boat. 

Karmic Guide has multiple premiums, Ninja has a TSR retro foil only, Sisay has different versions but all i the same original frame, Veyran and Selvala have nothing special either. This drop has all the trappings of something I want, and that’s before I admit that I have a very powerful Selvala deck of my own. I also think that psychology will play a part here. People will buy this because of the price of the first one, becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. 

Featuring: Mitsuhiro Arita

Card NamePrice RangeEDHREC decks
Light-Paw, Emperor’s Voice$1 to $108300 as commander, 25k as card
Murktide Regent$11 to $40002700
Lightning Bolt$1 to several grand270k 
Shorikai, Genesis Engine$2 to $818k as commander (#20 all time), 30k as card

The star here is clearly Murktide, a card that has fallen out of favor in the current Modern metagame, but does retain some value and utility. Shorikai might end up at $10+ given the new rush of Vehicles coming out and it was already high on the posted decks. Lightning Bolt has been printed more than 35 times, and each premium version tends to land in the $6 to $10 range. 

Murktide’s current demand level is not high, so I’d expect this to land in the $25 range for foils, but remember that for Modern players, you’re going to need four of the card, not one, and they all better match. I might pick up a stack of nonfoils once the drop lands. 

Wrap-Up

So here’s my ranking of the drops:

  1. Miku in EN foil 
  2. Miku in EN nonfoil
  3. Artist Series: Jesper Ejsing
  4. City Styles 2
  5. Featuring: Mitsuhiro Arita
  6. Miku in JP foil/nonfoil
  7. Featuring: Luke Pearson
  8. Arcade Racers
  9. Lorwyn Lightboxes
  10. Aether Drifters

Personally, I think I’m going to end up with this order: one all-foil bundle, two all–foil Miku bundle, five EN foil Miku, five Jesper, five City Styles 2, one Mitsuhiro. This keeps my Miku buys in line with each other and I can bundle them off together, plus I want the max of the other two lairs and one of each for personal collecting.

I will also be keeping a close eye on the ‘low stock’ notifications, especially if those pop up for the Racers or Drifters. I’m not expecting them to be popular, but I’ve been wrong before.

We don’t yet know what the bundle pricing will be, as the discounts have grown smaller and smaller over time, and I’m also not expecting a sweet bonus card like an Avengers Arcane Signet or a Rainbow Foil Seedborn Muse. If we get those, great. If not, well, I’ve made my choices. 

Good luck, and may your queue time go by quickly!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

The Mana Math of Aetherdrift

Welcome back to a new set, and a new group of calculations. Aetherdrift has a new type of booster for us to unpack, a single serialized card, and another batch of sweet, sweet, Fracture Foils. 

Let’s get into what you can open and what you might get when you crack one of these packs. 

Box Toppers are back! These are two-card packs, found in Play Booster boxes, Collector Booster boxes, and the Finish Line bundles. You’re going to get one of ten different lands (75% driver’s perspective, 25% full-art panorama, and one of 84 different rares or 43 mythics, a total of 127 options.

It’s possible that the panorama foils might become expensive down the line, but I’ve found that basics are no longer worth it, generally speaking. There’s just too many sweet options, and each new awesome one makes the others harder to go up in price. We get occasional exceptions, but even things like the Oil-Slick lands have taken forever to go up a buck or two. Just better to put your money someplace else.

The First-Place Foils have the distinction of looking like terrible Pokemon cards, thanks to the yellow outline on the posted photos, but the videos Wizards posted look pretty cool, so I’ll forgive them. The second slot of a Box Topper pack has a lot of options, which calls for a table: 

Right away, I want you to see that 7 of 10 packs have a regular rare card. We’re already off to a killer start with that, but the rates go up from there. The First-Place Foil version of the Special Guests is a mega-rare pull, being at 714 of these packs to get a single copy. You get ONE Box Topper pack per box (Play, Collector, or Finish Line) so please, if you open something good make sure you get a good price.

I’ll be curious to see if folks realize what difficult pulls these particular foils are, there may well be some underpricing going on early.

Let’s get to the nonfoils, of which there are two slots, so we have an extra column for the doubling up. 

Note: Wizards doesn’t want to just say how many of each treatment there are in an easy way, spreading out the information over the whole page, and if I find new ones revealed on Jan. 31 or later, I’ll update these numbers. 

The nonfoil special versions are about right, providing some solid numbers for those who don’t like the shiny, warping cards. Especially with two slots, there will be plenty of these to go around. 

Now, for the foil slot at the end of the pack.

Yup, you’re reading that right. Fracture Foils at 1500/3000 packs is in line with the last two sets. They’ve clearly got a ratio they like, and going by the prices of most Fracture Foils, the players agree. 

Please remember that you’re 1/1000 to get any Fracture Foil, but because two-thirds of those are English-language and one-third is Japanese-language, that’s where the 1500 and 3000 come from. 

What jumps out at me from these tables is the Special Guests. That’s been a rare enough thing in the Collector Boosters, but considering that it takes 714 Box Topper packs to get a particular First-Place SPG, but only 238 Collector Boosters, I’ll be keeping an eye on the relative prices of those cards. If those are close to the same price, it would be a data point about how many boxes (and Finish Line boxes) are sold compared to how many Collector Booster packs are opened. It’s a little scary that 238 x 3 is exactly 714, and that made me go back and check my assorted math. 

The rest of it is in line with previous sets, so any big spikes or dips will be due to demand, not a change in collation. Please notice that the Mana Foil is no longer there, which was a good midway between the Borderless art and the Japan Showcases.

Now, to talk about the serialized Aetherspark. Wizards is probably aware that they made a mistake when they gave us precise odds for serialized cards, as in Lord of the Rings, because that let us know what the total number in circulation was, a data point that they haven’t really replicated.

Here’s a table for your odds, varying the number of packs printed:

The $120 is an estimate of what the distributors pay for the average Collector Booster box, and that’s the sales that Wizards cares about. Again, these are estimates, and if I get better data I can give a more precise number, but we think that you’ve got to open something like 6,000 packs to get a serialized Aetherspark. 

Remember, statistics are an overall view. There will undoubtedly be people who open two serialized Aethersparks within 500 boosters, and others who open 10,000 Collector Boosters and get none. 

I hope this math is helpful for you, and helps in your buying and opening decisions. If you want to talk about my methods or errors, please reach out to me on Twitter, Bluesky, or in the ProTrader Discord.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

The Good and The Bad Of Innistrad Remastered Release Weekend

Today, Innistrad Remastered is live on all the sites, for buying and for selling. No longer are we stuck with ‘preorder’ pricing, which tends to be super high and moves very slowly, now individuals can get in on the action, undercutting each other and other websites.

If you look at eBay, there’s a lot of stuff already selling, some with a preorder tag and some where the cards are in hand, but those are not the same quantity as TCGPlayer. Especially this weekend, the prices ought to move pretty fast as people seek to unload quickly. We’ve learned from Ravnica Remastered that holding for a long time is going to be unprofitable for almost everything, so let’s see where things are, and identify what might go up from here. 

It’s worth noting that reprint sets like this are supposed to lower the prices of the cards in the set, at least for the basic copies. Wizards has figured out that they can do two things at once: First, make the regular frame foils and nonfoils cheaper, and at the same time, make new premium versions which should sell well. Generally speaking, we see that’s true with last year’s Ravnica Remastered, and before that, Dominaria Remastered. 

The base versions of cards reprinted in those sets have fallen and mostly haven’t recovered. There’s a few exceptions, Cyclonic Rift being the standout, but things like Force of Will, which hasn’t been reprinted in the two years since, still hasn’t recovered. (To be fair, Force is up a few bucks in the last four months but it’s still not above $60, when it was $100+ before the DMR reprint) 

Ravnica Remastered is a fantastic example of the concept of both making base cards cheap (and therefore accessible to a wider range of players) and premium versions pricey. The serialized shocks are all over $250, with Steam Vents closing in on a grand. At the other end, the basic nonfoils from the set are all under $15 except for shocklands, Bruvac, and Cyclonic Rift. 

That’s the model I’m expecting for Innistrad Remastered cards. 

We already have some data for cards dropping in price, and like I said, I expect a lot more of this over the weekend. Prices are current as of late Thursday night as time zones allow the preorders to unlock. 

Emrakul, the Promised End is now $38 when EMN base copies were $63 in September 2024. 

Edgar Markov is $55 for the nonfoil (the first nonfoil!) when the C17 foils were $90 in October 2024.

The Meathook Massacre is $29 when MID copies were $55 in October 2024.

This trend is prevalent among basically everything that is in Innistrad Remastered, and if you want to buy basic copies, you should wait patiently. There is a lot of price drop coming, for the regulars and for most of the premium versions as well. 

The card most likely to pull a Cyclonic Rift is The Meathook Massacre. It’s at the right confluence of rarity and EDH demand, but it’s niche enough to avoid being reprinted again in the next 12 months or so. (Probably, anyway, because Wizards’ reprint policy can charitably be described as ‘mystifying’.) Meathook is in 127,000 decks on EDHREC, which is quite good for its age and rarity. EDHREC is a database where only the most devoted players upload their lists, so remember that the more casual players don’t add their decks. Casual players are also likely why the card has been expensive for its whole lifespan, even after it was banned from Standard. For comparison’s sake, Cyclonic Rift is at 688,000 decks, so more than 5x as popular despite multiple printings. 

I expect Meathook to drop below $20 sometime in the next couple of months, and that’s when I will want to move back in. 

One of the things that I’m not as excited to buy are the lands. The ‘slow lands’ have been reprinted in the Dr. Who set, and got both EA and Surge Foil EA versions there, to go with the original set’s Borderless and then Double Feature had the Silver Screen versions. We’re looking at a wide mix of premiums, and a whole lot more of the basic copies. These will languish like a lot of other land cycles have, and while getting in for $3 or even $2 a copy is an attractive idea, given the Commander popularity, it’s very easy to imagine these getting another reprint before too long.

There is a card that is set up to fall like a rock and almost immediately rebound: the Borderless foil of Rooftop Storm. Aetherdrift has two Commander decks, one with an artifacts/energy subtheme, and an Esper Zombies list. I would not be surprised if Rooftop Storm was in the deck, but that’s a basic nonfoil. We’re about to see a number of Zombie cards pop off, and this is one of the greatest reasons to sleeve up the undead, making the deck free and your Commander cost less. (Still gotta pay the Commander Tax!)

Currently, foil Borderless versions are at $5.50 and falling, plus today the whole Zombie decklist is revealed, making a perfect storm of potential.

Finally, I want to make a point about the Movie Poster cards. These are awesome and iconic, gorgeous pieces of art melded with great design. I will be happy to get these cards. 

These are not going to be super-expensive cards, though.

Back in the Mana Math of INR, we went over how it takes 100 Collector Boosters to get a foil copy of a certain Movie Poster card, or fifty to get a nonfoil. If INR is printed at the same rate as Lord of the Rings: Holiday Edition, that’s 1.5 million Collector Boosters. A little division, and we get the total number of copies at 15,000 foils and 30,000 nonfoils.

I think the number of packs is greater than 1.5 million, putting the copies higher and higher. Plus, with that many movie copies out there, we can do some comparisons that may cause wincing. Remember how Meathook is in 127k decks? Well, Guardian Project is in 200k, and there’s a xxx/500 serialized foil of that available for $115 on TCGPlayer. The current price of $100 for the Showcase foils is far too high. If you want these sweet shiny cards, be patient and you’ll save a lot.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY