Category Archives: Travis Allen

PROTRADER: The Watchtower 4/24/17

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By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy. And if you enjoy playing Magic, make sure to visit https://scry.land to find PPTQs, SCG Opens, and more events on an interactive map with worldwide coverage. Find Magic near you today.


Well, uh, so much for a fresh, new, exciting Standard, eh? It’s not much of a stretch to say that nearly everybody, even those that wouldn’t have cared for the decision, were expecting a ban on Felidar Guardian. After Wizards openly admitted that it was a mistake in the first place, and seeing that it’s now nearly 40% of the metagame, and possibly an even larger percentage of Standard top eights, how could they not get rid of the combo? Removing Copy Cat would dramatically open up the format for all sorts of strategies to try and find their home, an excellent recipe for a Pro Tour.

Instead, Wizards changed nothing in Standard, and we’re left with existing Standard + Amonkhet, rather than New Standard. While Amonkhet brings new tools to the table, (and I find myself wishing I could reasonably spec on Manglehorn), I’m suspect that we’ll really see any especially exciting shakeups. Our most likely universe is the one in which there’s a bunch of Copy Cat and Vehicles players, each with some clever tech for mirrors, and then 10% of the room playing something different, of which one or two will manage to make T16.

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It’s disappointing, especially from a market perspective, but what can you do? Join us again in about two months when we go through this song and dance once again. For today, I’m going to skip Standard, simply because I’m not sure where to turn. Glorybringer is already up to $5, and beyond that, a lot of pros are talking on Twitter about just locking Copy Cat now and moving on to drafting. Once I have a better idea of what changes to Standard may look like, I’ll start covering cards over there.

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Odds/Ends

Price Today: $7.50
Possible Price: $15

I’m as surprised as you are, but it’s my duty to share these things with all of you. If ever there were a longshot with a payoff potential, it’s Odds//Ends.

As some of you may recall, there was a change made to the way split cards are handled in regards to their converted mana costs. This came as a blow to their playability, with cascade spells no longer able to hit the cheaper half, Brain in a Jar no longer able to cast them, and other similar effects. Well, it turns out there’s a silver lining to all of this. The downside of not being able to cast split cards with cascade effects is that…you can’t cast split cards with cascade effects.

Practically, this allows decks that rely on cascade cards to now be able to play split cards without worrying about connecting with them. This is a considerably smaller scope than before, but it could have corner applications. In this case, it’s Ari Lax pointing out that there’s now a counterspell that’s playable in Restore Balance and Living End decks. (He built a URx Living End deck, in case you were wondering how he’s casting it.) Odds works by either A. countering their spell, or B. making a copy of their counterspell, which then counters their counterspell. Technically Determined of Bound/Determined is better at keeping your spell uncountered, but Odds//Ends lets you stop opposing combos, something Determined decidedly doesn’t. Odds only works half the time in that scenario, but half the time is better than none of the times, right?

Copies are floating around $.75 right now, and honestly, I don’t know why. They are though, and there aren’t that many, all things considered. Like Protean Hulk, it’s from Dissension, which means the supply is as close to zero as you can get in Modern. If this ends up a common component of these style decks, expect to see the price hitch up towards $3 or $4. It’s not a big gain, but if you can snag these out of $.25 or $.50 rare boxes, or you find them for cheaper than TCG somewhere online, there’s very little risk involved.


Protean Hulk

Price Today: $4.50
Possible Price: $30

While I was writing the intro to this article, Protean Hulk got unbanned in Commander. Know any quiet shops that don’t see a lot of online business? Now’s your chance. For most of us, this is a “there it goes,” not a “here it comes.” Sorry, I can’t tell people to slow down. I’m sure TCGPlayer is being bought out as I type these words.

Honestly, I didn’t even realize this was on the EDH ban list, but then again, it’s not the type of card I would ever seek to play. The mere fact that Hulk’s legality status has changed will probably bring the card to the attention of many players that simply didn’t know it existed, because they’re not the type of person to know a random rare creature from Dissension, and nobody in their EDH playgroup was running it (because it was banned). Now that they’ll see it out there, there could be a “oh, that’s a card? I need that!” moment for a lot of players. It helps too that the card is quite good in EDH; saccing this to any random sac effect allows you to set up an instant kill, if you so desire, or even just value engines if you don’t. There’s probably some engine in there with Eternal Witness, Restoration Angel, and a few more copy/bounce effects that will let you drag every creature in your deck under six mana into play.

Protean Hulk was sitting at $4 to $4.50 before the unban. He’s been on the (very remote) fringe of Modern a few times, which pushed him north of $10 for half a day, and has since hung out in the “people hope this combo gets good some day” price range. Now with EDH legality, once the dust settles, I expect copies to sell for at least $8 to $10, and depending on what Jason Alt tells people to think about this card, it could end up above $20 if it’s as evergreen as some of the other green monsters.


Body Double

Price Today: $1
Possible Price: $5

Since I started playing EDH, I was surprised that Body Double was as cheap as it is. It’s relatively inexpensive, gives you a copy of the best creature that’s been cast all game, and enables all sorts of shenanigans, either from being flickered or because of its zero power. Given that most cards I find myself saying “huh, that’s surprisingly cheap” eventually end up not, and Protean Hulk, Body Double’s most dangerous enabler, is now legal in EDH, I think Double is worth turning our attention to.

Modern’s most common variant of the combo required Mogg Fanatic, Viscera Seer, Body Double, Reveilark, and of course, Protean Hulk. That’s across all five colors, and given that this is EDH, it would be nice to streamline that a bit. It’s likely this could be streamlined in terms of color requirements, especially given all the tools available outside of Modern. Instant kills aren’t required to make Body Double useful, though. If you just assume that eighty percent of people who now need a Protean Hulk also need a Body Double, and add in that a bunch of people may not realize they should have been playing this card already, and you can see how demand can mount fast. If you find yourself saying “claiming that eighty percent of people who bought a Protean Hulk would need Body Double is ridiculous,” mind I remind you that A. shut up and B. blue is the second best color in EDH, and the best color to pair with green.

Copies are available in the $1 range, and possibly lower if you dig hard. Inventory isn’t especially low, but it’s lower than some of the other cards we talk about in this series. There’s about forty-ish copies of the original on TCG right now, and maybe one hundred of the duel deck printing. That’s the only other printing of the card other than Planar Chaos though, a set many EDH players probably don’t even realize exists. Add to that that there’s probably over 100 EDH decks represented at your local store alone, and you can see how that reserve may dry up fast if there’s a glut of players looking to Double their Hulks.

Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.

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MTG Fast Finance Podcast: Episode 63 (April 15/17)

MTG Fast Finance is our weekly podcast covering the flurry of weekly financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering. MFF provides a fast, fun and useful sixty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: Apr 15, 2017

Segment 1: Top Card Spikes of the Week

Fiery Gambit

Fiery Gambit (Mirrodin, Foil Rare)
Start: $6.00
Finish: $16.00
Gain: +$10.00 (+167%)

Magister Sphinx (CFX, Rare)
Start: $3.25
Finish: $8.50
Gain: +$5.25 (+161%)

Wheel of Fate (C16, Rare)
Start: $1.50
Finish: $3.75
Gain: +2.25 (+150%)

Always Watching (SOI, Rare)
Start: $1.50
Finish: $3.50
Gain: +$2.00 (+133%)

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Crumbling Ashes (SHM, Uncommon)
Start: $1.50
Finish: $3.00
Gain: +$1.50 (+100%)

Relentless Dead (SOI, Mythic)
Start: $5.00
Finish: $8.00
Gain: +$3.00 (+60%)

Long Term Amonkhet Specs:

Disclosure: Travis and James may own speculative copies of the above cards.

 

CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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MTG Fast Finance Podcast: Episode 61 (April 1/17)

MTG Fast Finance is our weekly podcast covering the flurry of weekly financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering. MFF provides a fast, fun and useful sixty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: Apr 1, 2017

Segment 1: Top Card Spikes of the Week

Fluctuator

Fluctuator (Urza’s Saga, Rare)
Start: $2.50
Finish: $15.00
Gain: +$12.50 (+500%)

Swans of Bryn Argoll (MM13, Rare)
Start: $1.00
Finish: $4.50
Gain: +$3.50 (+350%)

Preacher (The Dark, Rare)
Start: $7.50
Finish: $20.00
Gain: +12.50 (+167%)

Seismic Assault (7th, Foil Rare)
Start: $25.00
Finish: $90.00
Gain: +$65.00 (+260%)

Through the Breach (CHK, Foil Rare)
Start: $90.00
Finish: $250.00
Gain: +$160.00 (+178%)

Eldrazi Temple (ROE)
Start: $10.00
Finish: $17.00
Gain: +$7.00 (+70%)

James’ Picks:

Walking Ballista

  1. Walking Ballista (AER, MTGO Rare*)
  • The Call: Confidence Level 8: $7.00 to $12.00 (+5.00/71%) 0-12+ months)

2. Death’s Shadow (MM17, Foil Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 8: $15.00 to $25.00 (+10.00/+67%, 12+ months)

3. Expropriate (CSP2, Foil Mythic)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $40.00 to $70.00 (+30.00/+75%, 6-12+ months)

Travis’ Picks:

Fulminator Mage

  1. Bear Umbra (AER, Rare)
  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $5.00 to $12.00 (+7.00/+140%, 6-12+ months)

2. Fulminator Mage (MM15, Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 8: $30.00 to $55.00 (+25.00/+167%, 0-12+ months)

3. Ad Nauseum (Shards of Alara, Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 8: $7.50 to $20.00 (+12.50/+167%, 0-12+ months)

Disclosure: Travis and James may own speculative copies of the above cards.

Segment 3: Topic of the Week

The guys got nasty over the recently revealed Amonkhet Masterpiece card frames.

CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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MTG Fast Finance Podcast: Episode 59 (Mar 17/17)

MTG Fast Finance is our weekly podcast covering the flurry of weekly financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering. MFF provides a fast, fun and useful sixty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

 

Show Notes: Mar 17, 2017

Segment 1: Top Card Spikes of the Week

A pretty quiet week in card spikes…that is up until the MM17 reveals wrapped up Thursday and people started moving on cards that weren’t included. (Expect to see those here next week.)

Yawgmoth's Bargain

Yawgmoth’s Bargain (Urza’s Destiny, Foil Rare)
Start: $22.00
Finish: $100.00
Gain: +$78.00 (+354%)

Street Wraith (Future Sight, Uncommon)
Start: $2.75
Finish: $9.00
Gain: +$6.25 (+227%)

City of Shadows (The Dark, Rare)
Start: $13.00
Finish: $35.00
Gain: +22.00 (+170%)

Tyrant’s Familiar (C14, Rare)
Start: $2.00
Finish: $4.25
Gain: +$2.25 (+113%)

Traverse the Ulvenwald (SOI, Foil Rare)
Start: $12.00
Finish: $20.00
Gain: +$8.00 (+67%)

James’ Picks:

Saheeli Rai

  1. Saheeli Rai (KLD, Mythic)
  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $5.00 to $10.00 (+5.00/100%) 24+ months)
  • Note: This pick assumes that the combo deck is banned out of Standard before the next Pro Tour and Saheeli gets cheap enough to move in as a Modern spec.

2. Panharmonicon (KLD, Foil Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 8: $10.00 to $20.00 (+10.00/+100%, 12+ months)

3. Kari Zev’s Expertise (AER, Foil Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $5.00 to $15.00 (+10.00/+200%, 0-12+ months)

Travis’ Picks:

  1. Kaervek the Merciless (MM2, Rare)
  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $2.00 to $8.00 (+6.00/+300%, 6+ months)

2. Liliana, the Last Hope (EMN, Mythic Foil)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 6: $55.00 to $90.00 (+25.00/+64%, 12+ months)

Disclosure: Travis and James may own speculative copies of the above cards.

Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review

James & Travis went over the results from a fairly boring GP Barcelona (Standard) and a more diverse SCG Dallas Open (Modern), highlighting a few key cards.

Segment 4: Topic of the Week

The guys discussed the announcement of the TCGPlayer Pro software offering and the likely impact of their extended reach as a central MTG finance platform in North America.

CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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