By: Travis Allen
Does everyone remember this article? If not, read it again. It’s going to be what we’re talking about today.
Last week, Derek wrote about how Khans of Tarkir would fare leading up to rotation. This is the first set that will rotate earlier than we expect it to. Rather than rotate in the fall of 2016, two years after its release, it will rotate during the spring of 2016. Dragons of Tarkir launched in late March and Battle for Zendikar will release in early October, meaning that KTK will lose about six months of Standard legality. While he has a grim outlook on the future of Khans, I’m not as certain we’re done with this block (well, Khans and Fate Reforged) yet.
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Very good article. Much much much better then the last waste of my time article I read on this scenario. This one actually used reason and history not crazy hyperbole craziness. Travis is a class act in the mtgfinance community. Thank you.
Travis, you did a much better making this “digestible” than I did. While my goal was to simply shed some light on the rotation changes and let people make their own decisions, it was read an entirely different way by a large number of the readers.
The new rotation structure is going to present a lot of different challenges going forward and only time is going to tell what pricing patterns look like going forward. Hopefully, for Wizards’ sake we don’t see the Spring / Summer sets being lame duck releases and that Summer Magic actually sees some revitalization as it won’t just be that 21 month old format that we’ve all grown sick of.
What about the Mini-Bump? Prices rise after BFZ but only barely and not enough to buy Retail now and out to Buy Lists for profit in October.
It would seem to describe Derek’s position better than The Shrink. I didn’t read Derek as saying “hold on everyone, expect spikes in July-August” but something more like “many of us are picking up staples expecting them to rise but they might not.”
This was more what I was getting at. For example last year I picked up a bunch of Elspeths leading into rotation, I traded a couple Elspeths at the peak($30), and a couple at a lower number ($24-26) and then finally a couple more back around $20.
In the new scenario I would picture a $20 Elspeth spiking to something like $26 and then crashing to $15 in that same amount of time.
Great article!
I would have to agree that I do not think the first scenario would be likely because it would pretty much say that the price of the cards are independent of the releases. Time of the year is one factor, but you also have to account for set releases. There is no reason for a general spike in price if there is no coinciding release.
I also think that the lows and highs will be relatively blunted for the sole fact that there is less time for the new cards to stew in peoples standard mind.